08
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/7/14

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We were basically unchanged last week despite some volatility around a number of key ecodata releases. Comments will be included in The Week That Was section of the Monday post. Subscriber questions on the Wrap will be addressed in the Stuff section of the Monday post. Have a great weekend. 

wrap 020714

27 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 2/7/14”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Site maintenance for the next few minutes. 

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    test

     

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    test2

     

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    A blast from the past post:

    VTZ discusses oil sands:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2008/12/12/expert-guest-post-alberta-oil-sands-101-don%E2%80%99t-call-it-tar-sands-please-it%E2%80%99s-annoying/

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    The search function on the site has been replaced with a relevance engine.  The new search takes an indexed view of the site in an attempt to provide posts and comments that are more relevant.  Searched terms are then highlighted in the comments and posts. 

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    Have fun in the snow Zman…..still cold here in the Northeast…14 degrees this morning while driving to baseball practice….yes can you imagine baseball season is less than 8 weeks away…forecast calls for sub freezing temps most of the week…has to be the coldest winter i can remember.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weely Oil Producer Chart  

    At the confluence of the 200 MA, Volume Base, Composite Low Volume Node and previous high volume breakout. Demand volume flattening out with price. 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/oil_producer_composite_index_cumulative_volume_weekly

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken Index Weekly

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/bakken_index_weekly

    Permian Index Weekly

    Highest weekly demand volume since the October swoon… 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/permian_index_weekly

  9. 9
    Baylor Says:

    What is downside risk to putting 10% of net worth in LINE for the 9+% yield?

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Producer Weekly

    Flagging just below the long term volume base top  since October.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/nat_gas_producer_composite_indexweekly

    Long Term……….

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2014/02/09/nat_gas_producers_long_term

  11. 11
    Baylor Says:

    What do you mean by flagging zorg?

  12. 12
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EXXI – Z I do not own right now but did listen to the CC. I was looking to help a few who still own. I was looking at two possible courses. This market wants growth and EXXI is not growth now. They have made purchases of companies for $20/bl on the shelf. From a value standpoint I am thinking they should not get below $17 – $18 before value investors take serious interest. So a patient long term player could just stay the course hoping for some significant discoveries this summer. The other course would be to switch to some of the faster shale basin growers. With many having corrected in the last few months, may have better 6 – 9 month performance. The risks I have noticed with EXXI are: 1. Drilling track record not as predictable as most shale oil basins. 2. Risks from Hurricanes much like the winters in the Bakken (not very predictable), 3. A Macondo type event.  I am only looking for your take on the logic not what to buy. Thanks.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the charts Zorg

    Thanks for the question Tom, will address in Monday post. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    #11  Re Flag or Pennant…  Considered to be  bullish continuation setup….Watch for a break above the high of the formation that happens with above average volume for most consistant success

    chart-patterns.netfirms.com/bullflag.htm

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp

  15. 15
    brodway Says:

    re: 14

    and there i thought you were talking baseball pennant. 🙂

  16. 16
    Baylor Says:

    Re 14 thanks zorg

  17. 17
    brodway Says:

    re: 10

    Zorg..that long term chart is indicating a new trend in play….i think you are on to something 

  18. 18
    brodway Says:

    anyone have an explanation why CHK is down over 10% on higher gas prices? its been some time since McClendon has moved on but haven't heard much talk about the companys prospects.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    re 18 – was asked the other day, response here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2014/01/24/friday-morning-oil-and-natural-gas-inventory-review-plus-athl-eox-rice-and-more/#comment-242622

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Tripping into triple digits overnight:

    http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/CLH4

  21. 21
    brodway Says:

    re: 19

    missed that response…thanks for the link…i guess being heavy in liquids is not the worst thing in an environment where the drawdowns have been considerable of late and pricing should help them…the fact that their capex is still a challenge they have not fully addressed is certainly troublesome from the perspective of the street probably passing on them for now which could also translate into the lower stock price. its possible that some have left the name for other options in the gas space, another reason for the recent decline. since you seem to have the finger on the pulse, i will wait for further info. in the name from you going forward. the one thing that is clear, however is that the street hates poor execution and will demolish equities in companies that miss the mark or over promise and under deliver. 

  22. 22
    brodway Says:

    re: 20

    just mind boggling that we went from 91 crude to 100 crude and many great oil stocks are just lingering at support levels. scratching my head….but being patient as i'm more and more of a believer that markets are really not as efficient as we want to believe.

  23. 23
    brodway Says:

    and gas is down 10 cents dow 4.68…thats about a buck from the recent high…have to believe some technical retracement is in the works…and i'm still looking at Zorg's chart in 10 and saying to myself why not own more gas? 

  24. 24
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas futures seem to follow the weather predictions pretty closely.  After this week's expected colder than normal temps a warm-up is now forecasted, with above normal temps over most of the US the following week or so.  The colder temps have already been factored into natgas prices, now with the warm-up coming a price retreat is happening.  I expect natgas to rally again if the predictors forecast temps to turn cold once more after this coming warm-up.  This forecast goes through Feb 23:

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 24 – right but more important to our names is what the Strip is doing. At the end of the day, weather only is going to matter so much, and generally just to traders. The trough will be low enough to be quite supportive of prices at better levels than we or the Street would have expected through the first shoulder season and into Summer but nothing about storage now or where it looks to be going (1,100 to 1,200 Bcf in the next 7 weeks or so) spells $5 plus being sustainalbe at this time, not in light of produciton, imports and demand (see slideshow in last Tuesday's post).  

  26. 26
    sc4 Says:

      9  the question is not should u put  9%  of your investment with line but rather with any stock. In general the answer would be no. Why not spread it between line and

    say memp and perhaps a bit in bbep?  That ,said  I have well over 10% of my investment in one company but that is because the company has been a strong proformer. Moreover there is more to come. Good luck whatever you do.

  27. 27
    ut=83878c91171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a http://www.garagecommerce.com/businesses/10740014/title-loans-express/title-loans/ca/salinas/93901 http://www.contractspot.com/contractors/company-info.php?PHPSESSID=8qqn5jv7lr0qvt7pb08poioa60 http://www.bizlistonline.u Says:

    ut=83878c91171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a http://www.garagecommerce.com/businesses/10740014/title-loans-express/title-loans/ca/salinas/93901 http://www.contractspot.com/contractors/company-info.php?PHPSESSID=8qqn5jv7lr0qvt7pb08poioa60 http://www.bizlistonl…

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