28
Nov

Happy Thanksgiving

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Happy Thanksgiving.  We're thankful for lots of stuff including you. Eat, drink, and be merry and then stuff yourself full of energy inventory knowledge. 

Oil Inventory Review

exp vs act 112213

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EIA 112513 A

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EIA 112513 B

Natural Gas Inventory Review

gas table 112213

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gas graphs 112213

42 Responses to “Happy Thanksgiving”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Bad day for CFO's

    SU and SARA CFO's resign

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  11/29 5:36    ES 1808.25/ SPY Chart Below. (SPY levels).

    Notes……Mkt continues to build acceptance above the 1800 level. Upside bias above 1802.75 CHVN. Weak market structure in either direction. Demand volume supportive. Breadth trend positive.  POMO supportive.  Nasdaq RS. Big Cap RS. Financials RS. No econ# Early close.

    Thoughts ………Expecting upside bias above 1802.75. Watch 1808 for range expansion and 1800.50 for retracement to 1788.50. Expecting pullbacks to be bought within the short term uptrend.

    Glossary   http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280

    1807                                 All Time Highs

    1802.75                           Minor CHVN/Volume Pivot (180.81)

    1800.50                           CLVN/Range Low (180.33)

    1788.50                          Minor CHVN/ (179.32)

    1782.25                          Minor CLVN(178.75)/Volume Gap Below

    1774                                CLVN

    1771                                 Previous range high.(177.55)

    1758.50                            CHVN/Current Volume Pivot(176.43)

    SP500 Futures  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/es_master_131129053418

    SPY

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129055037

     

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    HAL coming up on the confluenc of the 50 MA, CLVN support and uptrend line. Volume demand negative on the daily. Need to see some volume at support. Long term trend line and major support at 50.50

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129061815

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the levels Zorg. 

    News flow at typical holiday light level. Iran saying 6 month deal to begin around YE13. No company news and analysts all safely tucked in their beach side beds. Quiet. 

    NG up 3 pennies early

    Oil up almost $0.50 on Jan WTI

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    major move in BDI +102 to 1821.

  6. 6
    nrgyman Says:

    Dicker out with an article predicting crude prices will rise despite the Iran deal:

     

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-dicker/iran-deal-oil-prices_b_4348924.html?utm_hp_ref=tw

  7. 7
    Dedwards Says:

    MHR out with a Friday morning S-1 registering the $8.50 warrants… either they are taking advantage of the sleepy markets around the holidays OR they know some well results are coming that will juice the shares

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Breaking generally lower this morning..XOP above support

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129063946

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    Notable opening relative strength in PVA GST TPLM CPE 

  10. 10
    tomdavis12 Says:

    7  Dedwards MHR do you have a guesstimate as to when the warrents are likely to start trading? I have asked the question of Chris Benton @ MHR in IR (email) and gotten no answer.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – AMZG

    AMZG – Adding a starter core in this interesting micro Bakken that has sold off recently in buy the rumor, sell the news fashion after announcing they will uplist to the NYSE. They sport rapid growth and strong liquidity as outlined in a mid November post here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/11/15/friday-morning-oil-and-natural-gas-inventory-review-plus-a-new-name-for-thought/

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    High Relative Volume at support    PXD EOG KOG 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Add FANG to the high relative volume/ testing support list

  14. 14
    gdr Says:

    Z—trying to find the write up you did a few days ago comparing the midgets with AMZG. Can you direct me?

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 14 – http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/11/18/monday-morning-40/

  16. 16
    RB Says:

    taking JONE 14.48

  17. 17
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Concerning MHR wts.: Registering them early preserves the maximum time value and allows for trading. I forget the accounting treatment of warrants as dividends but I suspect it maximizes some benefit for the company. Other accounting pros here can correct me.

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG good volume off defined support this morning

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129073225

  19. 19
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 11, what price did you pay for AMZG?

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 19 – average cost just under $2.37

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Adding to 20 … and we paid $2.70 (with fees) for it in the ZLT G accounts the other day. No qualms about adding in the $2.25 to $3.00 range (for the near term).

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Stepping out for a bit but will be checking in. 

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    #18 bot some KOG..for a trade

     

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    #23  @ 11:28..stop under 11

  25. 25
    Zorgnak Says:

    Above average volume stocks today

    KOG EOG PXD FANG GST JONE USO

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Zorg: Thanks for sharing some of your trades.

  27. 27
    Zorgnak Says:

    #26  You are welcome…

    Usually move to breakeven stop at +2% and take first partial at 5% holding the rest for a runner.

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    #27 Usually means I take profits according to where the price/volume levels are. If the CLVN or CHVN is closer I'll take partials earlier as they price/volume levels seem to work better than generic % ideas.

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    Example…. OAS  I would take a partial before 48.76 CLVN and then another coming into the CHVN at 50

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129084132

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG  Partial at coming into resistance/CLVN 11.67. Additonal profit taking coming into the CHVN at 12.55. Stop below the support CLVN 10.91

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129084718

  31. 31
    JMlr Says:

    Zorg, could you show a chart for EOG and offer any thoughts?  Coiling for a move higher or continue down to a lower level of support?  Thanks!

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Turkeythirty, have a great weekend. 

  33. 33
    ram Says:

    Thanks ZMAN. Same to you and your family.

  34. 34
    Zorgnak Says:

    #31  RE EOG  At first glance..Will it bounce here at support?  I never know but to my eye the chart looks bearish if it doesn't hold support here and I can see it going to 161.11 as next defined support f

    Traded to support this morning and found volume buyers. EOG is one of the best bouncers out there. From this pullback setup since 2011 there have been 12 short term trades with 83% winners, (winners defined as closing above the 10 Day MA at a profit) with a profit factor of 5.52!. (the last similar setup on 11/06 failed) A bounce here works back to 171.46 CHVN before it encounters supply with resistance at 175.11 CLVN above that. Off the profile chart a trade taken here would have a little over $6 before it encounters supply and $10 before it hits resistance. Support is close by so the short term risk is as small as the reward. If you're thinking longer term then none of this applies of course.

    So..lot's of scenarios here….I'd rather wait for a lower price or wait for the group to find it's legs.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129092744

  35. 35
    Zorgnak Says:

    Closed FANG and ROSE at breakeven…Permian stocks still trading heavy..May take partials early on the others

  36. 36
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures reversing back to the volume pivot at 1803. The profile shape is one that suggests further distribution at the close.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/es_intraday_131129095214

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP   Need to see a break above 69.45 for the bulls. Support at 66.50. Pulled the plug on the short term energy trade longs until I see some more evidence of strength above 68.26 CHVN..Bounce in the group was very weak with leaders still getting sold.  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/29/stock_master390_131129095734

  38. 38
    ButlerBaby Says:

    zorg – whats your definition of short term?

  39. 39
    JMlr Says:

    Zorg, thanks so much – very helpful to have another's look.  thanks again!

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 38 – Inspiring the Friday Movie Quote Watch:

    "If we go by the book Admiral, hours could seem like days"

    Football Watch:

    AR 17, LSU 14 at half …. didn't see that coming!

  41. 41
    milepost_43 Says:

    Friday, Nov 29 10:08 AM

    Kinder Morgan project could drive final nail in Keystone coffin

    • Kinder Morgan Partners' (KMP +0.2%) application to expand its Trans Mountain pipeline carrying oil to Canada's Pacific coast could ultimately prove the death knell for the Keystone XL pipeline, 24/7's Paul Ausick writes.

    KMP says it will file a formal application next month with Canada's federal regulators to nearly triple the pipeline's capacity to 890K bbl/day in hopes of starting construction in late 2015.

    • Combined with TransCanada's (TRP) proposed Energy East pipeline, nearly 2M bbl/day of crude from the oil sands region would get to market without crossing the border with the U.S.

    • Neither project is a sure thing, but with oil and gas production comprising 8% of Canada's GDP, Ausick believes pressure from producers in the region likely will have much more impact than pressure on the U.S. State Department to approve Keystone XL.

  42. 42
    choices Says:

    Fairly decent summary of Brent-WTI spread currently:

    http://investingchannel.com/article/275692/Brent-WTI-Spread-Widens-Again-as-the-Discount-Shifts-to-the-Gulf-for-the-First-Time#.UplTWMRDvnc

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