23
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/22/13

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Comments on the past week's news and actions will be included in the Week That Was Section of the Monday post. 

ZLT Stats - Last week we completed the post quarter update of the expanded ZLT stats. Please see the WIOWIO & ZLT Stats page for our holdings in graphical format. 

Holdings Watch: We added to a couple of ZLT positions last week. We also sold one long held Trading position in PVA, up 140%. Please see the Blotter for the update. 

 

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wrap 112213

 

22 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/22/13”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Nice twitpic from EIA – South East graph of coal declining for electricity consumption … coal's lost, natural gas's gain

    https://twitter.com/EIAgov/status/403880430996185088/photo/1

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    The Blotter is updated

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/

    It does not include the ZLT C and ZLT G portfolio trades. Those can be seen on ZEB Positions page here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  3. 3
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Do you have any gut feel for XCO. I am looking at the bonds 7.50% 9/15/18 below par. They are rated B3/CCC+. With the CEO being out, do you think the companies assets are better than the bond ratings? Will they be able to pay off in 5 years (always the tough question). Cusip 269279ad7 for any other bondmeisters out there.   

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    re 4 – Thanks, will have some thoughts for you on Monday.  

  5. 5
    RMD Says:

    I had a brief fling on the long side with XCO this fall.  Finally sold it after hearing on conf. calls how their JVs were all about getting PDPs on he books (a year or so after the pvt equity or JV partner skimmed the flush production). I got the feeling the co. needed the PDPs to support their existing debt. Meanwhile the co. had an obligation to buyout the JV partners after a yr. or 2 when production was lower. As I remember, co. was cagey about how the repurchase price was figured.  Didn't sound good to me so I bailed; it wouldn't suprise me if the co. was in a big financial tangle.  However I won't know because I took it off my market minder and threw the file away.  fwiw.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    re 5 – we sold in April of this year after having tried it on for what for the ZLT was a very short move into the name in July 2012. Like the leverage to natural and it got the expected move off the lows due to its financial leverage and the bottoming of gas in Spring 2012 as well but the story goes against my normal grain of KISS. Almost the opposite of KISS in fact except maybe they keep the last letter there. Will do a re-work up there but lots of moving pieces combined with the over leverage and then an inability to really pull the trigger on long threatened oilier deals had me losing patience. Our other gassy getting oily and over-levered story was PVA and we've still got almost all of that one. 

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Iranian Nuclear Deal Reached

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/23/world/meast/iran-nuclear-talks-geneva/

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Details not yet available, looks like a 6 month deal to remove some sanctions in exchange for some concessions. If the P5 +1 get their way, oil volumes will not be part of the initial lift. 

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    President Obama to speak on Iran at 10:15 pm EST

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Interim deal:

    – halts progress on nuclear program – no use of the newer centrifuges, no additional centrifuges, limited production of centrifuges, some stock pile destruction. 

    – provides for "intrusive" inspections

    – telling Congress now is not the time for new sanctions

    Israeli cabinet to meet in 4 hours 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    HAL  Pullback to CLVN support. Looking for a resumption of the trend

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083135

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    OXY  Continues trend with strong breakout

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083429

    APA  Similar breakout as above but with more supply to deal with..

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083528

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    RE HAL setup…failed to mention  the current swing setup in HAL has a 90% win rate back above the 10 Day MA over the past two years. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    COP  another bigger cap looking to breakout 

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124083949

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    HFC  Breakout level at 47.25

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/11/24/stock_master390_131124084415

  16. 16
    choices Says:

    Thanks, zorg-what do you make of the big caps breaking out-seems unusual to me unless crude looks to break out as well.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Israel reaction to the deal:  Historic Mistake

    http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/24/21591860-historic-mistake-israelis-republicans-condemn-iran-nuclear-deal?lite

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    re# 16  Seems to be happening in general in more than just the energy.sector. Note the relative strength rotation with the SPX now over the Nasdaq Composite. The smaller guys were in charge since April. All three of the big caps I posted here are in the SP100. So bigger is in….

    CVX broke out at 122

    XOM broke out at 93.38

     APC lagging

     

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Oil off modestly earning evening:

    http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/CLF4

    Would not be surprised to see a highly volatile session tomorrow. 

  20. 20
    RB Says:

    #15…HFC one of my income positions…

  21. 21
    irongate Says:

    ~~Oil Slump Seen as ‘Knee-Jerk’ Reaction to Iran Deal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-24/u-s-says-iran-oil-exports-can-t-increase-under-nuclear-accord.html       Selling oul on Iran?   not so fast  

     

  22. 22
    RB Says:

    PXD says severe winter weather in TX impacts operations…really?  that's hard for me to believe….

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