04
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/04/13

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Another strong week as recent moves accelerated for the leadership names and further broadened into some of the laggards in the small caps. Some of the action looks increasingly frothy and while valuations in the ZLT are not yet stretched they are getting "less cheap" The ZLT, where we seldom make an alteration, is up mid 50%'s year to date in the A, B, and C portfolios, a nice beat relative to the S&P's 19% move but all of the outperformance came in the third quarter and that's just not normal. We will be largely out of pocket on Monday but will return with a further look at AR and this past week's Week That Was section on Tuesday. Have a great weekend. 

If you wish to learn more about ZEB see the How To ZEB link at upper left or shoot us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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44 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/04/13”

  1. 1
    choices Says:

    A decent read for the weekend-summary by Byron Wien:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1730072-the-blackstone-group-l-p-special-call?part=single

  2. 2
    milepost_43 Says:

    24 Crucial Things to Know About Running Natural Gas Trucks

    http://www.todaystrucking.com/24-crucial-things-to-know-about-running-natural-gas-trucks

    Posted: Oct 4, 2013 05:27 PM | Last Updated: Oct 5, 2013 02:39 PM

    TORONTO — Attendees on day one of Canada's first Natural Gas Vehicle Conference scored some clutch advice from two of Canada's most well-known fleets.

    In back-to-back presentations, Bison's VP, Western Operations Trevor Fridfinnson and Robert Transport's Engineering Manager Yves Maurais, gave back to the Canadian truckers by sharing — quite openly — their challenges with implementing natural gas tractors into their respective operations.

    It was, without a doubt, a refreshingly honest and sobering account of the challenges early-adopter fleets have been facing with natural gas.

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    SPY Volume Profile Levels   Near support 167.12. Near resistance170. Break of 167.12 has risk to 162.70.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/06/stock_master390_131006113245

     

    S&P 500 Aggregate Stock Demand Volume

    Daily     http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SP105_zps1d9bd694.png

    Weekly    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/SP105Wkly_zps5e503467.png

     

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    #2  Thank..Interesting article

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Stocks breaking higher. High short interest stocks and momentum driven setups flying. Aggregate demand volume not confirming the group move. Doesn’t matter until the price levels crack.

     

    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/zlt105_zps9502efb9.png

    High short interest + 52 Week Highs = Boom

    http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&f=sec_basicmaterials,sh_short_o10,ta_change_u1,ta_highlow52w_nh&ft=4&ta=0&o=-change

  6. 6
    501xx Says:

    Z- perhaps when you get a chance in the coming weeks you could examine and rate some of what you think are the better/safer royalty trusts. They get a mention on the board every once in a while and your analysis would be welcome.Might make a fine SA piece for you also.

  7. 7
    choices Says:

    OT-Some of the tinfoil hats have been bellowing about this risk in general in the world-the Russians evidently have taken it a step beyond mere talk: (like the word "temporarily")

    http://blogs.wsj.com/emergingeurope/2013/10/03/russia-to-grab-pension-money-temporarily/

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  10/7 8:30AM    ES 1670.25

    Notes….. Primary uptrend intact. Market trading around the 1680.25 CHVN after testing 1665.75 CLVN support 2X last week. Range 1665.75-1701. Demand volume weak. Breadth trend flat. Split market  with Nasdaq/Risk sectors and high relative strength stocks holding well. POMO supportive. Political headline risk.

    Thoughts ……..Caution.  Negative bias below 1680.25. A break of 1660.50 suggests another leg  down with acceptance at 1638.75, far support at 1621.25. Watch Nasdaq support at 3195.25 as trigger for another leg down.  Edgeless chop between 1672-1684.75. Rallies below 1695 are suspect.  

    Glossary   http://www.futurestrader71.com/?page_id=1280

    1695.25           CHVN

    1682.50           Minor CLVN

    1680.25            CHVN /Volume Pivot

    1660-50-65.75 Support/CLVN/Confluence of 50 MA, Trend line

    1638.50             Acceptance/CHVN

    1621.25             Support/CLVN

    SP500 Futures  

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/07/es_master_131007052503

    Nasdaq Futures   3195.25 Key Support

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/07/nq_master_131007054237

  9. 9
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z not here today very quiet. EOX some SA articles have them learning their completion technics from WLL. Not the case. They have ex-EOG guys doing their work. Others are learning from EOX. 

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EOX — thx for the comments TomD.

    EOX used to be the older Reger bro… not so anymore.  White Deer is Smart-with-a-capital-S.  And I would expect Reger the elder to step down from the Board at the next meeting… transition to a real e&p completed.

  11. 11
    elduque Says:

    GDP- anything new?

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GDP — not that I am aware of.  But probably something is out there, making the rounds.

    Remember when $30 seemed so far away??  Now it is merely the next mile marker on GDP's way higher.

    Gonna wait for this one to git acquired by sumbody large.  Doan think I have to wait more'n a year…

  13. 13
    elduque Says:

    Thanks BOP.

  14. 14
    nrgyman Says:

    Solar names continue to rally.  An interesting read from Glenn Williams at the Street.com highlights a 'Sea Change in Solar'.  Some points he cited:

    Installation rates for both business and residential are at record levels.  Execs in the power industry claim solar power is economical without subsidies compared to natgas and nuclear:

    David Eves, CEO of Public Service Co. of Colorado, a unit of Xcel Energy(XEL), told the Denver Business Journal that this is the first time his utility has seen solar projects as being cost-competitive with natural gas-generated power. And this is "…without considering carbon costs or the need to comply with a renewable energy standard — strictly on an economic basis," he added.

    This article provides interesting info about solar compared to alternatives from a capital and fixed operating costs perspective:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/5-charts-that-show-nuclear-is-declining-2013-10

     

    The trend is growing and this is without subsidies.  The ITC of 30% results in losing 50% of normal depreciation expense, so many are not taking the credit.  

     

     

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    SCTY  Breakout level above 39

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/07/stock_master_65_131007095727

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    SCTY  2 consecutive daily short squeeze profiles…16% float short

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/07/stock_master_65_131007095852

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    SCTY clears it's volume base on a new HOD today

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    FSLR clearing the volume gap. Coming into congestion and prior acceptance at 46. Expecting it to slow down here

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/07/stock_master_65_131007100420

  19. 19
    nrgyman Says:

    SPWR scored an ascending triple-top breakout today on the P&F chart.

  20. 20
    choices Says:

    OT-(somewhat)-Chinese FinMin not feeling so happy about DC antics and debt ceiling-considering they hold some trillions of US debt, they may have on ax in this one:

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2013/10/07/obama-china-debt-ceiling-default/2936165/

     

  21. 21
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    its quite today as we all build our bunker deeper for the Apocalypse.

     

  22. 22
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    This is a pain though; but i was forced to do some risk adjustment whether I felt like it or not.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Back in the office, have been monitoring things since the open, haven't missed much.

    Analyst Watch

    HAL – Jefco upped target by $4 to $58, rating still at Buy

    News flow near a stand still, much like the government

    We'll be back with the normal post tomorrow. 

     

     

     

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Tom or anyone see better timing on the AR IPO?

     

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Consumer credit comes in at $13.63 for August, above estimates. 

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    AR IPO — summary article on the SunTrust Robby coverage (pre-IPO) on bloomberg cites Oct 10th.  $38-42/share.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 26 – thanks for the date update. 

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 6 – OK, will do. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Good volumes in NFX, inching higher despite the backdrop, and we're still thinking its one of the sleeper names of the year, one the analysts will grow more spine on as 1) the international segment gets prices (they're reviewing bids this month) and 2) as they ramp volumes in their 4 key domestic oil plays into year end. 

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    HAL – Guggenheim also taking the oppy to raise the target from $56 to $60.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    FST – not surprising lack of follow through on the stock price rally with the $1 B sale announced last week. Overhead supply. 

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty, back in a bit. 

  33. 33
    Dedwards Says:

    Just ran across this Eclipse presentation online http://www.eclipseresources.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/January-2013-Presentation.pdf

    Nice section in there about type gurves wet/dry gas in the SE corner of Ohio where the Utica and Marcellus overlap.

    Does anyone have a link or copy of the Antero Presentation that was on their site as of a couple weeks ago? It appears they have taken it down 🙁

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    re 33 – AR's presentation is in this show:

    http://www.retailroadshow.com/sys/launch.asp?qv=8583496599458158&k=42342338307

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    MTDR tomorrow's post. 

  36. 36
    Dedwards Says:

    Icahn just tweeted he hold 61M shares in Talisman. "May have conversations with mgmt re strategic alternatives, board seats, etc."

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 36 – did you see 34?

  38. 38
    RMD Says:

    Forgot to mentiom Barrons had an article on WFT; nothing new to anyone who is familiar with the story.

  39. 39
    Dedwards Says:

    Re 37 – Got it, thanks so much!

  40. 40
    mimster90 Says:

    BOP do you still follow GEVO?

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mim — GEVO… I do.  They are going to have to raise money some time here soon.  I'm worried about dilution.  And I'm worried about the debt they have.  The CEO is smart.  But he has turned out to be an incredible jerk.  It is one where the technology works… but their balance sheet might prove a problem.  Will probably sell in here and watch from the sidelines.

  42. 42
    mimster90 Says:

    Thanks BOP

  43. 43
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs….Toying with another leg down with a move below 1660.

    http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/10/08/es_master_131007200212

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Tuesday post will be up in a few minutes. 

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