11
Apr

Thursday Morning – BCEI, PVA, NFX, RRC

Print Friendly

 

 

Market Sentiment Watch:  S&P 500 closes at all time high yesterday. Energyland is still quite the mixed bag in terms of the last 24 months of performance (pull up a weekly chart of the XLE or the XOP ... nice long tightening base). I count in E&P alone a number of groups from growthy stalwarts (both oily and gassy) to small and mid cap growth which is much more of a mixed bag, to turnaround names which are for the most part levered, have been retreating for years, and are just now (and this is debatable on a case by case basis) starting to get recognition for their efforts to rein in debt and find more valuable hydrocarbons than natural gas. The question becomes "If the broad markets are at all time highs why isn't my energy portfolio?" I refer you back to those aforementioned weekly graphs and I see the delta as an opportunity and would say that it very much depends on how you have been buying (on dips and when others are not as opposed to chasing charts) as well as on what you have been buying within energy (a mix of leaders and turnarounds or just the beaten down names). I can say that my tradiest accounts are lagging and that my "patient hand" accounts, the ones I add to after analysis and digestion of news and waiting and then waiting a bit more and then buying when others are not and not selling into unexplained weakness, those accounts are within a stone's throw of an all time high (they hit that level about 3 weeks ago). I'm a long term guy and I don't say that because I was flat in all but the small accounts last year but because over time (and this is where the long term part comes in) that works for me. Know your names, be able to categorize them into the subgroups of oiliness vs gassiness, growth vs perhaps hidden value, know which way the fundamentals for them are moving, have an expectation of the macro (my price deck is $98.75 oil (unchanged so far this year) and $3.85 natural gas (raised earlier this week for the first time this year), and invest with confidence. And I always DCA, both going in and usually coming out and again I keep Cores that are expected to be held at the onset for 2 to 3 years at a minimum unless I misjudge badly or management loses it's way and/or mind, and I always watch the name for a time prior to entry (watch meaning reading and math) unless its a very special case and then I keep trading positions around the core for when things don't jive with the fundamentals of the name or the macro or some Euro banker has done something odd to the markets.  In today's post please find a little food for thought on NFX, comments on RRC (big growth), PVA (upsized debt deal), and some other odds and ends. We will have live comments and analysis as the BCEI investor day plays out. 

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless claims came in at 346,000 vs 360,000 expected and 388,000 last week,

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - BCEI Analyst Day, NFX food for thought, PVA, RRC, 
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • XCO – selling the trading positions taken this year for $7.47, up between 0 and 11%. Still holding the core but will shift proceeds to our other less opaque natural gas focused names
    • The Blotter is updated. 

ZLT - C

  • Yesterday's Trades: 

    • REXX – Sold the 20 shares in the ZLT C accounts taken last July at $11.54 for $17.15, up 49% as the overweighted position had become too much of an overweighted position for these little accounts.  Leaves 30 REXX shares in the accounts. 

 

We'll have an updated table here on Friday. 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil edged up $0.44 to close at $94.64 yesterday after EIA reported an "OK" looking report. See Review section below.  We need to see gasoline demand pick up very soon for the current level to be sustainable. Unless OPEC further ratchets back supply which in and of itself might send a troubling message to the crude markets about non-OPEC supply and probably global demand. So the Cartel has done a good job of managing growth in U.S. production while at the same time balancing Iraq's unwillingness to restrain production (at least for the next 3 years). The Saudi's have been aided in this endeavor by a number of outages including depressed volumes from Sudan and Nigeria and flattening volumes out of Russia. Sudan is coming back to the market and North American volumes continue to inch up and Saudi may tip their production slightly below 9 mm bopd which probably sends the market into speculation about demand and about just how much spare capacity the Kingdom has (but undoubtedly concluding that less production = more spare capacity at the end of the day which can cause a little more price weakness).   This morning crude is trading flat. 

Natural gas rallied $0.07 to $4.09 yesterday. We noted the other day and continue to believe that we expect sell offs to be somewhat short-lived this shoulder season with short covering on the minds of speculators. In this case, the rally was attributable to a colder than expected forecast for next week which threatens to drag the season back into withdrawals in two week following an expected build next week.  A slow start to the injection season in the form of waffling around about the trough level for several weeks augers well prices in late Spring. I don't really care as this is near term noise but if it helps with sentiment in the gassy equity space and inspires a little short covering that would be welcome.  This morning gas is trading flat to slightly up. 

Natural Gas Storage Preview

Street is at -18 Bcf for today's report. This time of year things get a little squishy with the models and it's entirely possible we get a smaller withdrawal that leads to some profit taking, no edge on that and again, I really don't care. It's a moot point at this point given the strong position we are headed into this late arriving shoulder season. 

  • Last Week: -94 Bcf
  • Last Year: +11 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +15 Bcf
  • 10 Year High: +68 Bcf
  • 10 Year Low: -45 Bcf

Oil Inventory Review:

ZComments: 

  • Headline numbers:  Mixed bag. Better on crude due to higher utilization and lower imports but higher refiner throughput meant more gasoline production which is still being met by tepid gasoline demand. 
  • Cushing Inventories: Ticked back close to all time highs. Unwelcome but expecting it to rollover soon. 
  • US Production:  New 20 year high, added 30,000 bopd to reach 7.181. First quarter average was 7.07 mm bopd with our view in line with EIA's on a 7.3 mm bopd average for the year. 
  • Imports: Soft, in new low territory for this time of year. More of the same expected as light volumes from the States displace light volumes from Europe and West Africa. 

.

Stuff We Care About Today  

BCEI Analyst Day

  • Begins at 11 am EST, please see the comments section of the play by play on the webcast and tomorrow's post for the wrap up. 

NFX Quick Value Thoughts 

  • Performance:
    • Obviously poor on the stock side, and pretty much as expected on the operational side and yet this name underperformed just about every real E&P company I can think including ones with embattled or punted CEOs (SD and CHK).
    • We've owned it for years and continue to own it. We're not adding now but thinking that at some point they go away, perhaps after a 2H13 international segment sale. 
  • Gassy Assets Probably Understated In Value Now:

    • NFX is trading at 140% of the after tax present value of it's reserves but that's using the standardized measure of the proved reserves only. Doesn't sound like a bargain but there's more. 
    • 2012 proved reserves fell sharply last year (see table below) due largely to negative price revisions due to the low price of natural gas used to compute the reserves ($2.76 flat into the future). 
    • Prices are now back over $4. 
    • I'm not saying all of the reserves will spring back onto he reserve report in the future but what was removed was largely gassy reserves in the Anadarko Woodford where the leases are held by production. They are not gone nor will they expire. 
  • International Segment Being Sold:
    • Present value here is about $1 B.  There could be upside to that price given exploratory drilling planned prior to the sale and due to the gas discovery recently announced off Malaysia. 
  • After the sale
    • I don't expect them to run back to drilling gas wells in earnest but I do expect them to be able to better grow the firm in a liquids rich fashion from a smaller base. 
    • Management is conservative and yet they have set out expectations of liquids growth of:
      • 39% in 2013
      • 38% in 2014 and
      • 20% in 2015
    • Note that total company volumes are expected to grow:
      • 5% this year (with natural gas declining)
      • then 18% in 2014
      • and 12% in 2005 (with gas volumes holding flat in both years and with liquids comprising 66% of volumes (mostly oil) by 2015. 
    • Also, note that they have 650,000 net acres in liquids rich domestic plays from the Uinta to the Cana to the Bakken to the Eagle Ford.  If we say $1 B for the Inernational assets that leaves a TEV of $5 B vs reserves of $3.4 B, and with a streamlined story (no Gulf and no International) the name should be on buyer's radar, especially due to the Cana and Uinta holdings.
      • Maybe nothing comes of it, M&A is not why I own names but the underlying value here shoud be getting hard to ignore. --- 


 

Other Stuff

  • CHK - won dismissal of one class action lawsuit alleging the company misled investors
  • RRC - pre-announces big quarterly production beat.
    • As usual, RRC pre-announced production for the upcoming quarter, another quarter, another record high for volumes
    • 876 MMcfepd, up 34% sequentially vs company guidance of 845 to 850 MMcfepd
    • 79% of volumes were gas, in line with recent quarters
    • Realized gas price was $4.09 which was the best gas price for them since mid 2011
    • They noted being off to a good start in a year where annual production growth guidance is 20 to 25% and said more importantly they believe they have "line-of-sight on production growth of 20 to 25% for many years" which isn't a surprise if you know the Range story but is rare growth amoung companies their size,
    • At last check RRC was over 75% hedged for 2013 at $4.16 so higher than expected volumes and the lift in pricing of late combine to a good thing for them
    • We continue to own the name in the ZLT.  
  • PVA - Debt deal announced with MHR EFS buy gets Supersized
    • $400 mm senior deal
    • Get's upped to $750 mm, placed at 8.50% coupon due in 2020
    • Proceeds pay for the $400 mm for the Gonzales and Lavaca County leasehold and production
    • And replace the $330 mm in 10.375% 2016 notes (nice interest savings there)
    • and kills off the revolver balance which had just started to grow from $0 again
    • They still plan to sell 10 mm in equity (ostensibly to MHR because there's really no need that I can see now for "debt deal support" if you are going to be knocking back the rate that much. The high yield window remains wide open.
    • This leaves them with:
      • Senior debt of nearly $1.1 B consisting of $775 mm in 8.625% debt and $300 mm in 7.25 debt due 2019 and
      • Liquidity of about $300 mm consisting of $11 mm in cash and an untapped $287 mm revolver that is likely to be slightly boosted later this Spring.
      • Interest costs are marginally better but the maturity of the seniors is pushed out,
      • And given their EBITDA vs Capex needs they will be easily funded for this year's expanded program and well into next before by which the revolver will have expanded to accommodate 2014 drilling and the debt / EBITDA metric should be back rolling back over but I'll be calling them today to discuss that as the 2013 budge would see debt / EBITDA rising > 3.5x in my view.
    • We continue to own the name in the ZLT. 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • RRC - SocGen ups target from $80 to $93, rating Buy
  • SWN - SocGen ups target by $3 to $44, rating Buy
  • COG - SocGen ups target from $53 to $73, rating stays Neutral
  • CLB - Guggenheim starts at Buy with $165 target
  • CLR - SocGen ups target by $3 to $99, rating Buy
  • CRR - Guggenheim starts at Buy with $110 target
  • SYRG - MLV ups target from $7 to $8.50

140 Responses to “Thursday Morning – BCEI, PVA, NFX, RRC”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Running behind this morning…power outage shut my computers down and lost my stuff for today..Having to start over
     
    S&P Areas of Interest 4/11 8:51am AM  ES 1582. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Range expansion above 1565.  Demand volume/breadth positive in all time frames. POMO supportive through end of April. Defensive sector relative strength.  O/N Mkts mostly up. Currencies continue reversals.  $USD  broke support, now resistance at 82.30, far support 81.31. Demand volume negative. Euro testing  resistance 1.315, expect consolidation.
     
    Thoughts ……… Short term expecting  minimum of consolidation after range expansion with lots of unstructured area to be tested below.  Longer term looking for areas of interest on any pullbacks. (Along with the rest of known universe)
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1582.50 VPOC  Wednesday
    1565 CLVN/Range extension
    1553.50 CHVN/Bulls in control above.
    1548.50  CHVN/ Range Volume Pivot
    1540.      Minor CLVN
    1536.50  CLVN / Overnight low 1533/ Volume gap below to 1525.75
    1505       CLVN
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Es_Composite_2_1304110557.png
    Longer term chart
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/ES_Master_1304110549.png

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Big shift in currencies continued overnight
     
    $USD /DXY
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/DXY_Master_1304110535.png
    Euro Testing resistance at 1.315
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Euro_Master_1304110553.png

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil bouncing around in congestion. 93 is major acceptance. 96.25 Resistance. Short covering yesterday. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Crude_Oil_Multi_Period_1304110606.png
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_1304110608.png

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Good morning Zorg and thanks for the levels. 

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG  Support/Resistance  3.90/4.13. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/NG_Master_1304110611.png

  6. 6
    elduque Says:

    BDI unch
     
    Brent/WTI at 12.4
     
    TYX at 2.989
     
    Thanks Z and Zorg for my earlier morning info fix. 

  7. 7
    elduque Says:

    Full scale article on PVA in Seeking Alpha

  8. 8
    mimster90 Says:

    Great opening paragraph. Concise summary of where I am, weighted toward small and mid cap growth. and I sleep easy at night with what I own. They all have gained value [production increase, reserves, less debt etc..] even if the market doesn't yet recognize it. Before I found zman I had a lot of KWK, dumped it years ago thank god, as I learned more about E&P from this site. Thanks zman and everyone else.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 6 /7 you're welcome and thanks, Good article. I mostly agree with him, and more power to him in cheering the name. The comments about being on trend with the MRO and EOG should not be taken to suggest that PVA will get those kind of results with some tweaks to the completion methodology, it's just not as good reservoir rockI think they come close to 4x debt /EBITDA before the metric improves (from a current 3.5x) which is on the edge of danger zone territory  for most buyers of E&P's. With stronger liquids prices and the upside of the expected EBITDA range it doesn't quite clip 4x in my view … note that they hedged their expected gas production for this year so while they may be getting some help with the strip for 2014 hedging 2013 is mostly set.  

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 8 – you're welcome and thanks much. 

  11. 11
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Any thoughts about selling the PVA 10.375 '16 before they get called?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    PDCE and BCEI charts of late look like carbon copies. NBL meanwhile heading to new highs.  Worlds of difference between the 3 names but NBL has been the sentiment leader in the Wattenberg for this entire cycle. Expecting a strong defense of BCEI's Nio B and Codell EURs today and a reiterated clear vision of Nio B, Nio C, Codell and the slowly growth in longer lateral Nio B wells.   Names affected aside from Bonanza are likely PDCE, SYRG.  Still waiting on the new presentation. 

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    BCEI…at an interesting level. 38.23 is the major acceptance area…volume pressure from here will be interesting
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110642.png

  14. 14
    RMD Says:

    Z ask PVA why they wanted back-to-back maturities in '19 and '20 vs. spreading it out a few years.

  15. 15
    gdr Says:

    Re: 9, Z.
    you say that PVA can maybe get to 4X EBITDA before price exceeds typical valuation for E&Ps. What is the projected current and next year EBITDA? I guess that would give an idea of what price appreciation we might expect?

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #11)  PVA 10.375s…. what a beautiful run.  Welcome to the feeling of hitting a "home run" in high yield land.  Yes.  Buying individual bonds CAN work…. and work out well.  Just can't force it.  Have to be ready when the opportunity presents itself.  Congrats to all who pulled the trigger there.
     
    In a never-ending search for anything that might be construed as "yield," some money market funds (or the equivalents) are buying the PVA10.375s to hold until they get called (now that they are Short-Term Bonds).  At the current price (last quote that I can see) of 106.525, the bonds are yielding 2.02%.  So you can sell 'em…. or hold them until they get called as a "cash equivalent." 

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg, CC at 11 am EST, name drifting with group, oil until then.   

    Note the SWN chart, by far our largest gas levered position.  Official Brown Dense JV announcement now in the any week now camp. They're lightly hedged for 2013 at last publication although if they are not locking in 2H13 volumes now I'd be surprised. Comments by them last Summer that they were not all that interested in hedging at then current levels are looking pretty smart now. 

    RRC – typical pre-release of a big production number reaction … nada.  Hitting on all cyclinders doesn't do it justice, fully valued? Perhaps from a near term point of view but growing a firm that size by 1/3 in a quarter is a feat and they can continue 25% per annum growth for years. 

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 14 – great question.  Will do.   I suspect the answer will be that by then having a B come due in a two year time frame will be no issue. 😉 

    re 15 – to clarify, I was saying Deb/t vs Last Twelve Months EBITDA and not TEV/EBITDA

    EBITDA range is $290 to $350 mm pro forma and that's their numbers on a budget of $457 mm this year. About $90 mm in interest gets you to half the current revolver eaten into by YE13. 

    2014, my very preliminary EBITDA number is a touch over $400 mm. That's with modest growth and EBITDA per BOE of about $50. 

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  rolln'
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110659.png

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    re 16 – Very nice call on those bonds last year BOP and thanks for fielding Tom's question. 

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 19 – I'd say there is a rumor out in the Woodbine, and its' not the Buda Lime, but really Woodbine but I have not looked hard around for it. See CXPO up another 6% today. 

  22. 22
    1520sbroad Says:

    #17 – SWN said last year at IPAA in April that for them to hedge a year out they would have to be able to get at least the prices that they already had hedges on at — I think that is in the low $5's.  As Z said – I would not be surprised if they are locking in late 13 pricing right now – particularly if that helps solidify their CAPEX budget / Brown Dense plan etc.  It will be interesting to see if they add a gas rig back at some point and where they would do it – core Fayetteville or Marcellus (takeaway might be the issue there)

  23. 23
    gdr Says:

    18—got it. Thanks

  24. 24
    Denise Says:

    Just sold my 10.375 PVA's and now saying a prayer that some of the "search for yield crowd" will discover my underwater 19% yielding WHZ!
    Thank you for pointing out the PVA opportunity-

  25. 25
    tomdavis12 Says:

    16 Thanks BOP

  26. 26
    D Edwards Says:

    CXPO action last couple of days is confusing, any idea what is causing it?

  27. 27
    nrgyman Says:

    AAII sentiment at new lows, comparable to the lows set at the bottom in 2009.  Odd reading when the market is at all time highs.  Along with the Fed, this is bullish for the equity markets.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    re 26 – some say Buda Lime comments from early month but that's a heck of a lag. Easy to push the little ones around so that plus a Seeking Alpha nod could be it. Buda is spotty.  Given the strength in HK too I'd say it's Woodbine / Eaglebine, maybe some ZAZA rantings are behind it, don't know, checking a few traps.  

    NG Inventories in 8 minutes

    Denise – don't be a stranger.  

    LNCO – new high. 

    Likely to move some XCO proceeds into another of our gassy names today. 

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Will be chatting with PVA this afternoon. 

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    BOP – what do you think of NFX bonds?   Otherwise, for your next bond act …. (insert name in this ________).

  31. 31
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: WHZ – Did you say the PV10 value to be about $14/sh? Thanks. 

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CXPO — has a coupla well-watcher catalysts… and acreage continguous to private operators that have turned in some impressive wells.  1Q13 production (and earnings) are expected to be dismal, but should mark a production nadir for them.  People didn't like the asset write-down (from impaired properties) at YE, but to that i say "pfffffftttt."  It's all about getting oiler and growing production from here.  Doesn't help that CXPO has had to drop to a one rig program in the Woodbine.  But the other side of that coin is that they probably won't overspend cash flow in the foreseeable future. 
     
    So, we have a Woodbine and a Buda Lime well being spud in April… with results from both due within weeks.  Guess hitting bottom, spending within cashflow, and promising exploration wells could do it.  But I sense someone with a Scouting Hat on has spotted someone with good IPs near CXPO acreage.  Feels that way, anyway.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Natural Gas inventories

    -14 Bcf

    Keeps storage at 32.5% under year ago levels and moves us to 3.8% below the five year average. 

    Stocks now at 1,673 Bcf.  

    Likely build next week, then may flip back to a withdrawal, either way, pretty tame next couple of weeks from a storage change point of view

    Gas up 5 cents pronto on the number

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

  34. 34
    Zorgnak Says:

    Seeing increasing accumulation by larger traders.
    WPRT
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110730.png
    CLNE
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110731_2.png

  35. 35
    D Edwards Says:

    re 32: BOP, great analysis, thanks
    re 33: maybe we even see a small draw next week with cold weather out west?? (fingers crossed)

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 31 = $14.45

    re 32 – thank  you

  37. 37
    D Edwards Says:

    Note to self: Next time I see CPE insiders buying stock at $3.60, take it more seriously! lol

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    re 37 –  Following this deal, the PVA crew should do the same. 

  39. 39
    tomdavis12 Says:

    PVA 10.375 '16 – Choices  1. Sell in open market ( bid approx 106.125 ) 2. Tender thru reorg dept by 4/24. Likely to receive $106 by May 2. 3. Wait til company redeems all bonds that are not tendered by 6/15. Price likely to be 105.88.  New bonds (8.5% '20) were issued with registrations. Could be available to the public in a 3mo to 1 year time frame. These are my best guesses. Anyone see things differently, please share. 

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    HK – we wrote this in November in the High $5 range

    Decent move since but not much change in our thinking here at $8 … expecting the name to be strong. For this incarnation of the Hawk, natural gas not much of a factor at 15% Street estimates have moved up over the low end of my range listed in the table in this piece

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1005421-halcon-resources-bigger-oilier-and-still-cheaper-than-you-think

  41. 41
    Zorgnak Says:

    Surging now
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110750.png

  42. 42
    john11 Says:

    Bop..Many many thanks for the PVA bond trade and coverage.  Sold them all this am.

  43. 43
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #30)  I offered up the JCP 7.65s due 8/16.  Those bonds do not depend on a JCP turnaround (which i have no idea if the revolving door of management can pull off), but on the structure of JCP's bank agreement and liquidity outlook.  The thing is, "good buys" in stressed (or distressed) high yield are always scary when you glance at 'em.  That is why they are good deals.   And you have to be willing to see your "good buy" go down from where you pulled the yield trigger (i.e. the level of yield that you personally find too compelling to pass up).  I did that with the PVAs.  Bought 'em earlier than others on this board, who scooped 'em up at a better price a week or so later.   
     
    I'll pass along anything else I stumble upon.  Thing is, you can't force it.  Once you go looking for distressed bonds, you hurt yourself.  You have to let the little boogers come to you.  (If that makes any sense.)

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    BCEI call in 5

    http://ir.bonanzacrk.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=246947&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=4910152

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    john11 — most excellent!!  could you share where you let 'em go?  thx!

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    re 43 – I'm patient, will wait for next energy one, thanks much. 

  47. 47
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 37:  Ditto for UPL.  Insider bought early last week–stock is straight up since then.  Even if their realizations are challenged due to a heavy presence in the Green River (Pinedale) region, they have huge natgas reserves (including Marcellus) and are one of the lowest cost operators.  They took a gamble to remain unhedged on natgas going into this year and it is helping them now (they could be hedging now but I don't have any knowledge of it).  This was a go-to name in ancient history and has been annihilated by the natgas price drop, their lack of liquids production and high financial leverage.  But an insider did a significant buy last week, which we haven't seen much of among the E&P names.  

  48. 48
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Distressed energy (other than Kenworthy GMXRs) are a rare bird these days… but I hear ya.  Stick to the sector we know. 

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    re 47 – yep and they started adding hedges at the end of Feb, right after they said they didn't feel compelled to add them, don't know how much at this point but I'd think they would enter gingerly into the market. 

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    XCO – if they keep this up they can have the rest of my trading position and my core, will shift into different gassy name we already own. 

  51. 51
    choices Says:

    PVA-imo, fairly decent summary article-z, do you know Zeits-seems to have some background in the O & G sector:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1334211-penn-virginia-the-eagle-ford-s-emerging-surprise-story?source=intbrokers_regular
    PVA bonds-in process of selling, thanks BOP, and also to TomD for timely cmts-

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 48 – feel free to drop those ones from the hinterlands on the site as well, people like them. As for me, I'll play in E&P. 

  53. 53
    Bob Says:

    re 45 – sold my PVA 10.375 June 15, 2015 this morning at 106.25.    Thoughts on PVA 7.25 Apr 15 2019? Last trade 98

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    re 51 –  No, I commented on it in 9 above.  I think he may be under-concerned by the leverage. I will call them later today.  I wrote a pretty similar basic piece on them on SA mid last year. 

  55. 55
    RMD Says:

    is the audio working on BCEI's call?

  56. 56
    RMD Says:

    55 there is goes again. ok now.

  57. 57
    choices Says:

    PVA bonds-sold some on IB for 106.12-to my eye, good price-now to TD Amer, where 3d party mkt for hi-yield is not so good but still prob decent;
    Thanks again, BOP.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 55 – yeah, it's been gitchy, browser refresh seems to handle it. 

  59. 59
    john11 Says:

    Bop..re 45   PVA bonds  106.28 and the rest at 106.20.

  60. 60
    choices Says:

    #9, thanks, Z-a little behind this am, need to catch up!

  61. 61
    Denise Says:

    Cramer and D Dicker did a lets look for unhedged nat gas names this morning-XCO mentioned .
    Saying Nat Gas could see $4.50 to $5 this summer
     

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    SWN sensitivity to gas prices were included in this piece from earlier this week. 

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/04/09/tuesday-morning-natural-gas-price-deck-going-up/

    Waiting for BCEI to start talking ….

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    re 60 – It was a good piece in general but I just skimmed … he does have a more professional sounding name for his service but to be fair, people find my last name more confusing to pronounce. 

    BCEI starting now.  They have not dropped a new presentation onto the site so I guess they are going to go slide by slide in the webcast first. Boo.  Notes in a bit.  Just said type curves will be the highlight of their presentation …. chew on that Stifel. 

  64. 64
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Thank you all for sharing the PVA bond prices.  That is how the bond market works… like real estate… people sharing where they bought and sold with eachother.
     
    CXPO — lifted these comments from Iberia's March 25th note on CXPO.  This is why i think the move is a Buda-Bump (success there is not — or was not — built into the stock price at the time): 
     
    CXPO has secured a rig commitment to spud the Beeler #2H well targeting the Buda in early April. The Buda is a naturally fractured formation, and well costs are expected to come in below $4 mm due to the open hole completion design of the well. Offsetting operators have seen rates as high as 997 boepd, and CXPO is likely to drill a second Buda well later in the year. We currently assign no value to the Buda in our NAV, as the formation underlies CXPO’s Eagle Ford assets, but success here could provide exceptional economics.

  65. 65
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI sharp sell-off after talk started, filled yesterday's opening gap.  

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 65 – light volume noise, they hadn't said anything when it started so you get guys selling because others sold, saw same action with PDCE last week.  Notes in sections in a bit. 

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    BCEI Analyst Day Notes 1

    –  5 minutes intro – basic history

    –  247 MMBOE 3P in Wattenberg vs 1P fo 31.9 MMBOE

    – Mentioned Brown Dense – acreage is HBP, no rush, watching SWN and others.  Will be a fast follower there (but I would not expect them to test this year or next unless SWN does something interesting on the AR side of the border)

    – Codell – hihglighting the flat 30 to 60 day performance on that first Codell well  (not new)

    – Nio C and Ext Lateral well (not new rates there, will drill down  on the data in a bit)

    Not giving quarterly guidance today but they are showing the well completions timing, big swell of Nio B wells in 4Q, many late 4Q (bodes well for 1Q volumes, also should not be a surprise)

    ….

     

     

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Stock down about 4.5%, have not heard a reason for the dip yet.  Taking notes. 

  69. 69
    RMD Says:

    slide 22 didn't increase EUR meaningfully, still 313m maybe reason for BCEI selloff.

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    doesn't help that oil prices just spiked down a bit, i guess… and we are headed into our typical Noon Swoon.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 69 – could be, wasn't expecting EUR increases today. 

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 70 – yeah, may be use that, if it gets stupid, so far just noise. 

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CLR trading to LOD also, fwiw.

  74. 74
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI at 50 dma.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    BCEI Analyst Day Notes 2

    Wattenberg field operations – VP Rocky Mountain Engineer – came from NBL – going to give some basics

    – geology lesson on the Niobrara  –  6,000' deep, cheap to drill (about $4 to $4.2 mm CWC)

      – chalks – calcium carbonate and marls (chalk interlaced with clay) (together they make up the benches

    Nio B Bench is the primary, then C and the A Bench is being thought about (but guessing not tested until 2014 as NBL works on it)

    Codell (below the Nio) – don't know spacing yet but probably more dense spacing in the Nio than the Codell 

    – BCEI in the oil window  – slide 11 (reiterating this is black oil, not NGLs, not condensate)

    Acreage position – largely in 2 contiguous positions – east of the Wattenberg

    – history lesson on 2009 to 2013 activity in the play on slides 15 to 18 

    – watching NBL long lateral well just north of their position (Wells Ranch)

    – we have all of the same benches that NBL has at Wells Ranch

    – Says the delta is that A Bench tends to thin as you move south and a little less resistivity (evaluating, may be able to tap it from a lateral in the B)

    – B and C benches are very similar … C bench does thin slightly on the base of the C, says its a good target for Hz for them 

    – C bench may or may not work on east side (this may be the knock on the stock as they have called the C good over all acreage prior to this)

    …. 

     

    :

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Oil and it's oily proxies (KOG, CLR) are at the LOD… feels like a program trade kicked in.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    BCEI Analyst Day Notes 3

    Type Curve for Nio B (313 MBOE)

    – commented downtime has put them slightly under the curve, thinking they will get it up  (and that's the weakness in the chart, you said it RMD),

    – putting the artificial lift deeper in he well – they talked about this on the 4Q call 

  78. 78
    Zorgnak Says:

    BCEI  35 next level of interest
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304110908.png

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes 4

    – on the Type curve – they use 62% crude over the life of the well 

    – showing crude was 76%, 74%, 73% for 30, 60, 90 day oil cuts respectively

    – think it's 70% for the first year of the well 

    – 20% IRR at $60 oil

    – 64% IRR at $90

    Catalyst Well Performance – slide 23

     – Codell well right on the same 313 MBOE type curve – (very encouraged). Early it was underperforming, but as installed gas lift as opposed to flow it, let it decline to 0 and then go to rod pump

    – C Bench – lining up pretty well as well relative to the 313 MBOE curve

     – Long lateral – day 40 or so they had some decline on the chart, see on graph where it flattened out, prior to that was flowing naturallly, from there it went on gas lift

       – 2nd long lateral TD'ing today by the way. Will be watching that point of pressure in this second well

       – 1 more in their long reach in the 2013 program

       – talking about the benifits of going long reach (cost, surface, and you get the pickup in lateral distrance between two shorts)

      –  Risks – there are some uncertainties – failure is more costly … in the past they have not made a big deal out of this risk, doesn't sound like is now, just pointing it out.

          – so they are going slow, NBL is doing 60 this year so they will watch and borrow from that experience. 

    Basic Nio B and C and Codell Procedure – slides 25/26

    Old way

    1) drill and complete

    2) clean out with CT

    3) flow it back until it died naturally

    4) install tubing and rod pump  

    New way which is what they went through with the first Codell well and will be standard procedure  – explained all this on the 4Q12 call

    1) drill and complete

    2) clean out with CT

    3) install tubing and gas lift values

    4) flow back naturally up the tubing instead of up the casing which helps to extend the natural flowback period

    5) then you can add as much or as little gas lift as you need  …. borrowed procedure from NBL

    ….

     

  80. 80
    Stewart Says:

    re 47..I see a small 3000 share buy last week by the comptroller on UPL..did I miss a larger one?

  81. 81
    RMD Says:

    BCEI presenters are way to wordy, zzz.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    re 81 – you didn't find the math lesson using state data exhilarating? 

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes 5

    IP and State data vs using company data – slide 28

    The state get the monthly data and then the number of days on  … you can't tell if the day is a full day or one hour

    Saying they back out flow back period because its not indicative of what the reservoir can do,  also removes the mechanical limiting factors

    He's basically telling Stifel and any others not to do the numbers off state data

    IP 30 actual = 474 BOEpd

    IP 30 state based = 442 BOEpd

    IP 30 taking out flowback and downtime = 544 BOEpd

    and if you are still awake after that bit …

    Drilling improvements

    spud to spud times falling, 15.2 days last year 13.5 days so far this year. 

    CWC of $4.2 mm guidance for this year, they are there now. Not seeing cost pressures

    Well program – don't see any change here

     – on time and on schedule

     – slide 31 runs through timing for the catalyst wells

    Will talk about the first 40 acre spacing B Bench well maybe on 1Q13 call, don't have a 30 day rate there today

    Future Optimization

    3P reserves 36 wells per sectoin

     – 16 B on 40's

      – 16 C on 40's

      – 4 Codells on 160

    off of 4 pads – may get away with fewer if they can get the Ext Lateral wells

    Up next is John Larson, VP Mid Con – the one I met in Feb. 

     

  84. 84
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 80:  Yes that is what I saw.  Sure it was only 3000 shares.  But it was the VP & Controller buying at 19.47 and we haven't been seeing many significant insiders buying E&P names recently.  This is one of the very few.  Some insiders are better buyers than others.  He timed that buy well in hindsight.  I would like to see insiders buying in other 'cheap' names as well, but haven't seen it yet.  (Saw an APA insider buy last week also)  PVA for example.  NFX for another.  Many others.  Obviously the Controller at UPL is a bull on his stock and he made the move that I'd like to see more of.

  85. 85
    Stewart Says:

    re 84..comptrollers and cfo's are usually better indciators..but a 50-60k buy to me isn't as impressive as a 1mm+ buy like we saw with UGI a month or so ago..I'm with you..i want to see more insider buying in these beaten down names,,,,thanks for pointing them out..I will try and do the same.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes 

    Midcon presentation (this is the AR CV lenticular stacked sands vertical play)

    – nothing new so far,

    – there is a picture of  a frac job on a vertical on slide 41 – kind of makes you chuckles as nobody photos those any more and it looks tiny vs a hz frac job

    – nothing new though, they send spare cash flow from here up to the Wattenberg

    Geologist up next to talk upside in both plays …

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes

    Wattenberg

    Nio B  PDP EURs as high as 459 MBOEpd, but using 313 

    Nio C used 230 MBOE which is the lowest PUD shown in the reserve report for the Nio B … it looks a lot like the Nio B but its just one well so this will be coming up quite a bit.

    Codell – used the 230 MBOE for this one well too and for the 3P reserves for Codell across their acreage. 

    It would appear the geologist is being overtly conservative in her assumptions. 

    NBP OOIP of 74 MMBOE

    BCEI OOIP of 58 MMBOE with the delta is the thinning of the A bench on the east part of their acreage

    They see total recovery of 17% (nice)

    So proved is

    32 MMBOE

    107 3P in the Nio B

    108 in the C and Codell 

    = 3P of 247 MMBOE

    Conservative to me is good, overly conservative OK too here

    They see taking the 3P number going from 247 to 303 MBOE   (that may give a little oomph back to the stock)

     

     

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes

    Mid Con

    – Sees going from 10 acre to 5 acre spacing taking recoveries from 13% to 20%

    – 2nd 5 acre pilot comes on next 2 months

    – They have 19 MMBOE proved, see adding 17 MMBOE via the 5 acre sapcing

      – 10 acres are 148 MBOE (35% NG, rest liquids but those are high in natural gasolines so not your average NGL), the 5 acrres are seen as 118 MBOE

    – very encouraged by the first 5 ac pilot. 

     – free cash flowing here which goes to fund the Wattenberg. 

    Financials up next …. 

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    BCEI Notes 

    Financials

    – no change to annual guidance today – feel very confident about the guidance we have already issued for 2013

    – $394 mm capex, 80% to Wattenberg 

    – Adding EBITDA at about $100 mm per year 

    – Watteberg budget up 35%, volumes up > 100%

    – AR  – $70 mm capex is down 15% from 2012 and they get a 10% bump in production again with the excess cash flow going to Colorado

    – Cash margins are roughly the same in Wattenberg vs Dorcheat

    Only 2% of natural gas hedged for 2013 so far. 

     

    Their first Senior deal last week was 5x oversubscribed 

    Showing off how under-levered they are to peers – slide 67 / 68

    Current liquidity > $300 mm + CF = > $550 mm funding capacity so plenty of room

    Plan is to keep funding capacity in excess of 12 months of capex

    See keeping net debt / EBITDA <= 2.0x

    Q&A to begin soon … 

     

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    I'm pleased so far

    Have not learned anything earth shakingly new, didn't really expect to but conservative balance sheet, oil growth, looking forward to Q&A

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    BCEI Q&A

    – Using 269 MBOE – risked EUR in the B Bench for the 3P only  

    – What's the delta – It's conservatism on the reserve engineer. Also noting that naturally the 3rd party engineer will naturally trail them upward, and then some of the new data isn't yet in the number. 

    – Said over all on the 3P they are trailing to where they see it going

    Q) Nio C comments

    A) Said their thinking comes from verticals they drilled, also offset operator production and they have 3 D there. 

    Q) Rig growth to 8 by 2017

    A) Just adding a rig a year, pretty linear

    Q) When do plan to do a big one of the 4 pad per section, 36 well per section tests (40 acre spaced Nio B, C, and Codell )  … call it a Cube test (cube of oil in the section)

    A) Don't have that "stacking arrangement " set up yet in the drilling schedule. Said they might augment their budget later in the year to include that. Still watching others in this 40 acre effort

     

    I'd welcome a sell off on this call …

  92. 92
    nrgyman Says:

    SWN roaring in natgas land

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    BCEI Q&A 2

    Q) Capital costs on the gas lift installation, what's extra cost?

    A) It's going to cost less. Cheape than a pumping unit. Down the road, maybe 18 months out, they will swap the gas lift equipment out, move it to a new well, and add the pumping unit to the now old well. 

    Q) Freeze ups in 1Q13? 

    A) Yes, we did some in February … going forward we won't see that

    Note – we include that kind of thing in the guidance for the year so that's not going to affect the full year number. Also include some down time for fraccing next to wells and the need to shut those in from time to time to protect the original well. 

    Q) How many wells more needed to prove up the 5 acre spacing

    A) Probably 2 more pilots, look for mid part of next year to know, maybe sooner

    ….

  94. 94
    D Edwards Says:

    EQU changes accountant from KPMG Canada to KPMG USA… is this a possible M&A-related event?

  95. 95
    nrgyman Says:

    FSLR CEO on CNBC saying they are cost competitive with liquids fuels for power generation, including LNG.  Of course, natgas and coal are cheaper but many places around the world don't/cannot use them so they use LNG or other liquids.  FSLR says they are cost competitive now with that, with costs anticipated to drop for solar over time.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    BCEI Q&A

    Q) Green Horn and J sand potential on your position

    A) We've seen maybe 10 HZGreen Horn permits by others, have not seen much in the way of results. That's tighter, so its a tougher nut to crack 

    A) J Sand – that's  gas, so it just doesn't compete at present pricing

    Q) When FCF

    A) Real close in 2016 /2017 – saying at 8 rigs in the Wattenberg plus the small AR program that's probbly $700 to $800 mm 

    Q) Extended reach lateral potential

    A) You could get to all of the acreage being covered, maybe a little less due to some geological concerns  (they are looking to save $4 /BOE (CWC/ EUR) by shifting from the 4,000' lateral to the long laterals. So they are looking at it hard but they are waiting for others to get it right before really hitting it. 

    Call over. Analysts going to hallway presentations and then on a field tour in the Wattenberg. 

     

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    re 95 – On a price per subsidized watt basis or heads up?

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Leftover notes 

    BCEI Q&A 2

    Think he said Midcon is doing about 5,000 BOepd, said growth of 10 to 11% this year

    Q) Wattenberg Vertical ?  How much 

    A) About 1/3 of production is coming from the verticals in this area

    Q) Nio A – narrowness – is the thinness across all the acreage

    A) That would be a no by my read. He said in the southern part its OK and thicker towards NBL's Wells Ranch

    The one they show is the smallest A Bench they have on their acreage

    Q) Fort Hayes zone (above the Codell, below the Nio C)

    A) We see it as oil bearing … don't know when they might test it. We count that as reservoir rock and we will get to it (just don't know when, a little busy with all the rest).

    Don't expect change in guidance before mid year (but it sounds like it would be up)

    Q) Asked about an A test from the B

    A) Sounds like they don't yet but thinking A will take it's own laterals and not be drained from the B, due to the clay in between the two, thinking that could seal the A off post frac

    Q) Lasalle plant timing

    A) August, maybe late August – no change there.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    re 94 – Dunno, could be they plan to do more in the US

  100. 100
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 97:  FSLR CEO was talking heads up, but not referring to the US.  Other countries don't have the natural endowment of the US so they have to use liquids, often imported LNG.  Some use oil (like certain ME oil endowed countries) which they are using the market price (not cost of producing) of refined product to make the competitive comparisons.  So it still is a restricted market in that sense compared to everywhere, but still a big opportunity for them now at today's pricing.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Offtopicthirty, grabbing lunch

  102. 102
    DaveH Says:

    I received an e-mail from Interactive Brokers that I had some sort of rights offering that I should respond to.   I checked it out and found it was the offering of SSN to sell some more shares.   Each shareholder has the right to purchase 1 new share for every  3 old shares held.  The purchase price is $0.025 AUD.   Since I hold the U.S. ADS shares and each of those shares holds 20 of the Australian shares that price is equivalent the $0.527 USD at the present exchange rate of 1.0543.   We have until April 30 to agree to the purchase.  Most of this is described in a prospectus here http://www.samsonoilandgas.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx/PDFs/1667-73220028/DespatchofProspectustoEligibleSecurityHolders
    But that prospectus is only for investors in Austria and New Zealand.   It says that there is "essentially the same plan" for U.S. ADS shareholders but I haven't found any documentation on that.   Since SSN is trading right now at $0.49/$0.4923 there doesn't seem to be any reason to accept the offer.   And since a lot of people have that offer on the table, it doesn't seem likely SSN will go above $0.53/share before the offer expires April 30.

  103. 103
    DaveH Says:

    RE: 102 "Austria" should be Australia

  104. 104
    Alhambra Says:

    Bond basics question: When the PVA bonds get called at 105.188, do they also pay the coupon payment of 5.1875 as well or is that already included in the call price?  I'm assuming it isn't because otherwise the bonds would be priced at 111-ish?

  105. 105
    andy Says:

    Bop.    – just sold my Pva bonds@106.25w//fido this patiently waiting for next deal.  ThisThis

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    thank you for sharing, andy.  nice!
     
    Alhambra — good question.  In a tender, sometimes the company includes accrued interest in the advertised price.  But in the case of a call, that is the price you have to give the company your bond… but you also get all the accrued and unpaid interest due to you on top of the call price.  So the bond will keep accruing interest at 10.375% of face until they wrench it (call it) from your hands (unless you sell it or tender first).

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Off the phone with PVA, notes in a minute

    RE SSN – I had not planned to do it but I think there is a warrant in there; bet they extend it. 

     

     

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    PVA comments will be in the morning post. 

  109. 109
    Alhambra Says:

    Cool, thanks BOP.  So that explains why it's only 106ish, only 2 months accrued interest: 1.7291 coupon earned when called (in 2 months) + 105.188 (call price) = 106.917, then give them a discount so people actually willing to buy the bond, leads to current price in the 106 range.   Many thanks for pointing out this opportunity BOP

  110. 110
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDP bouncing at support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111154.png

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #109 — you would think so, but not quite… a bond is bought (and sold) on face value alone.  If you buy half-way through an interest payment period (for example) you pay the agreed-upon bond price (the 106.917) plus 1/2 of the accrued (but unpaid) interest for the period.  So, when you sell, you sell at the agree-upon price AND you get paid your interest owed (accrued) on your bond.  Check out your trade confirm.  It should read as such.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    re 111 but this pertains to something I was talking about with RMD earlier, $300 mm in bonds being retired for $330 mm, that's the call premium, plus accrued interest of $18 mm plus fees. 

  113. 113
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 107, yes there is an SSN warrant too.   to subscribe for an additional 4 shares for each 10 shares subscribed for, at an exercise price of A$0.038 (approximately US$0.79 per ADS). The warrants will expire on 31 March 2017.

  114. 114
    Alhambra Says:

    btw, I'm holding my bonds. I've already accrued 4 months interest: 3.45833, so they'd have to pay me 108ish (which doesn't make sense to other investors). I am happy earning "juicy" interest into summertime, so I don't have to worry about re-investment risk as the markets fly into uncharted skies.

  115. 115
    Alhambra Says:

    wrote 114 before reading 111. regardless, re-investment risk justifies it for me. thanks

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    LNCO vs LINE – a fun little comp chart to run.  We swapped into LNCO day 1 so that's really what makes it interesting ;-).  Anyone see the reason for the little squeeze going on today? 

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    VLO, MPC, HFC – continuing to come in. No one getting aggressive in the names prior to 1Q13 VLO results it seems. 

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #115 — agreed!  That is why i said earlier that holding onto the bonds here is like holding a money market account (with very little risk on top of that, since PVA has already got the money in-house) that pays you 2.02%.  That's not a bad return on a 2 month "cash equivalent" these days.

  119. 119
    john11 Says:

    re 115..Alhambra,  you are paid the accrued interest to date on the bond at time of sale.  Not like a stock divy.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty, a little early, back in a bit. 

  121. 121
    snoles Says:

    108 – Thanks Z for the PVA bond recommendation way back when.  I bought when you first mentioned it.

  122. 122
    Zorgnak Says:

    #117 Good call on that one…Got back to resistance and that was all there was to that
    HFC next support 42.79
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111303.png
    VLO
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111305.png
    MPC
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111307.png

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    re 121 – glad it worked for ya but the credit on the bond side is all BOP

  124. 124
    snoles Says:

    123 – Thanks BOP

  125. 125
    crysball Says:

    BOP      muchas gracaias    on  the  PVA  BONDS. .  DCA'd   in  and  need  to  hold  through  June  8th    to  make  the appreciation   a  long  term  gain.
     
    What  a  WIN/WIN…………..juicy  interest  and  premium  to boot.
    Am so  appreciative  of  the  wisdom shared  on  Zman……still  holding patiently   on the   PVA  common    knowing it's day will   come.

  126. 126
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    snoles and crys — glad to be of any help.  Will keep eyes open for any E&P bond that looks "good."  But, it will have to be a bond of a company with "issues."  Recall, people were worried about a PVA redetermination (combined with bond investors almost universally dismissing PVA as having "bad management")… so it created a situation we could all work on.  Z's appraisal of the equity and assets, my contribution on the banks and bonds, several of you checking on bond pricing with various firms… it all came together into a wonderful example of how this site can work to make us $$ in several different ways.  Thanks all!

  127. 127
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Not hard to find a bullish chart at the moment but I screened a few that were bullish looking but also had increasing or sustained large trader volume. 
    HK
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111713.png
    CRZO
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111729.png
    GDP
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111731.png

  128. 128
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    CXPO
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111743.png
    PVA
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111745.png
    SM
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111747.png

  129. 129
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111856.png
     
    CRK
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111735.png
    CNQ
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111742.png

  130. 130
    Zorgnak Says:

    Some interesting individual charts in the service side of the sector. Anyone care to offer some ideas for stocks for me to follow from a fundamental or catalyst angle. Thanks
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304111859.png

  131. 131
    gdr Says:

    Zorg–
    From a fundemental/catalyst point of view what would you think about HERO and FTK?
    thanks in advance. 

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    Zorg – are you looking for a whole list of Service names?

  133. 133
    Zorgnak Says:

    #133…No, just looking for some names to that might be worth tracking. There are some strong looking charts among the service/equipment/drillers. Does this part of the sector have legs fundamentally or is it very case by case. If so, which cases are worth keeping an eye on besides OII?

  134. 134
    Zorgnak Says:

    #132 gdr…..I'll add them to my pile…I'm looking to track the non E&P names a little more but don't only have some much eyeball time and want to keep tabs on the ones that are compelling for other than technical reasons. 
    FTK
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304112012.png
    HERO
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/11/Stock_Master_65_1304112016.png

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    Zorg – in order, I would say

    OII (oh eye eye)

    CLB

    CRR – as a short candidate

    HAL (ditto for now)

    NOV

    CAM

    ATW

  136. 136
    Zorgnak Says:

    #136..thanks.. dats what I need

  137. 137
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 133:  Add FTI to Z's list.

  138. 138
    West Says:

    SYRG…..Agree with Z that they will do a offering in here somewhere, but think it may still might be a month or two out..Impressed with management, they keep making good deals and adding acreage for resonable prices.. From CC looks like they have already rec'd afe on acreage that they acquired from Orr in the Watt extension area…….I think that the real value here is in the Watt and northern extension area.. The Nebraska acreage looks promosing but I think that is more than a year out , even with a discovery in the near term due to lack of infrastructure in the area. This much like BCEI north park acreage where there is no take away capacity…………In their core Watt acreage , 80% of their acreage produces from formations deeper than the Niobrara. Six prospective horizons gives more like 80k acres in this area.  With the acreage spread out over a large area they will be recieving many ops to participate on WI in wells on non op basis , giving them more bang for the buck and adding valuable well information ……Their recent JV with Vecta for 35% of 45k acres in the extension area gives them a lot of exposure in the area where new exploration is headed. ..Looks like they will need additional capital to take advantage of the ops on a consent basis……..One interesting side note in the last 2 weeks someone sold 2,500 april 5 calls at the bid for approximately 1.85 to 1.95 , so maybe they know something ………..They have rec'd 2 buy recommendation and price target upgrades this week . Looks like very solid company with great management that is experienced in the DJ Basin……….One thing that I continue to watch is restricted take away capacity and line pressure in the basin , especially with the #  horizontal wells accelerating. Already my largest holding and looking to add on pullback. 

  139. 139
    Zorgnak Says:

    #138 done..thanks

  140. 140
    fha loan limits arapahoe county colorado Says:

    fha loan limits arapahoe county colorado

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®
Get Adobe Flash player
%d bloggers like this: