10
Apr

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  China reports surprise trade deficit and futures use that as an excuse to inch higher in front of Fed minutes this after and the President's budget later today. In energy land, things have mostly gone back to the pre 1Q13 release season calm. We have IPAA next week which may bring a little last minute pre quarter commentary.  In today's post please find comments on the SYRG quarter and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST and the federal budget at 4 pm EST today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – SYRG, OAS
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades: None. But look for us to do some balancing trades in the next few hours to days. Nothing against the names we will be selling pieces of and not in general large pieces, just trading postions but want to create a little extra firepower and move some of the names more recently entered but still lightly owned up in stature. 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rose $0.84 to close at $94.20 yesterday, rising after a Bloomberg survey showed OPEC March production at a 16 month low at 30.554 mm bopd (off just 70,000 bopd from February levels).  Interestingly, Nigerian production (which has been consistently falling and falling as a percent of U.S. imports since 2010) is now back to 2009 levels, falling as MEND and groups like them work to restrict output via a combination of sabotage and theft.  After the close, the API released a bearish looking report with large builds in Crude and Gasoline stocks (see below). We don't expect EIA to reflect the large builds except at Cushing but numbers close to these should reverse crude back towards last week's lows should they occur.  This morning crude is trading off slightly. 

  • OPEC Watch: OPEC will release it's monthly report today.  Prior to the release of the report some headlines are out including OPEC's view of demand at +0.8 mm bopd (down 40,000 bopd from last month's view) and Saudi production of 9.1 mm bopd, flat with February (recall that Saudi has trimmed production by the equivalent of the output of the Bakken's output since summer 2012). We'll have more comments when the full report is available.
  • STEO Watch: The EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook is out:
    • Global demand up 0.96 mm bopd, off 50,000 bopd from last forecast but still expected to 90 mm bopd, a new high.  2014 seen growing to 91.3 mm bopd
    • Supply figures for U.S. growth are in line with our estimate at 7.3 mm bopd which takes into account an expected slowing in growth this year from the Williston, but is still up sharply from last year's 6.5 mm bopd level. We averaged about 7.08 mm bopd for the first quarter of 2013. 

Natural gas retreated $0.07 to close the day at $4.02 yesterday in light trading. We continue to expect weakness to be met with selling (maybe string a few red days together) unless the weather just turns extremely blah and stays there for weeks. Short covering still likely once heat sets in.  This morning gas is trading up five cents.

  • STEO Watch:
    • Production seen up 0.2 Bcfgpd in 2013 ... far cry from last several year's rampant growth and in line with our thinking if a bit light of it. They note that PA production grew from 3.6 Bcfgpd in 2011 to 6.1 Bcfgpd in 2012, putting it ahead of several States EIA breaks out in its monthly piece (PA is still lumped in with the "Other States" category, begging the question of when EIA see fit to track the monster the growth of the Marcellus more closely. 
    • Imports expected  to be flat imports with 2012 levels ... can't argue with that either,
    • Demand - They see record demand in 2013 due to more normal winters and while they show higher Industrial demand in a table they don't really mention it as a driver. 
    • Storage - With that said, EIA sees stocks closing the injection 137 Bcf below year ago levels at about 3.8 Tcf. We see that as high and will have some thoughts on this in a graph coming to you soon.  

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage:

Street is at -30 BCF for tomorrow’s report.

  • Last Week: -94 Bcf
  • Last Year: +11 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +15 Bcf
  • 10 year Hi: +68 Bcf
  • 10 year Low: -45 Bcf

Oil Inventory Preview

API Watch: Bearish

  • Crude: UP 5.1 mm barrels, Cushing up 0.9 mm barrels,
  • Gasoline: Up almost 2 mm barrels
  • Distillates: Down 1.3 mm barrels

Stuff We Care About Today

SYRG Notes Wrap

  • We still do not own the name but are becoming more inclined to; some notes, and then a model soon to come after we chat with them to tie up a few items,
  • To repeat this is a Wattenberg vertical player, going to be horizontal player, that has other bigger patches of acreage that look interesting,
  • Note that they have are now just beyond the mid point of their fiscal year and should provide a budget for FY14 in May or sooner, after they publish their a mid year reserve report,
  • In the Wattenberg:  Unlike most players that space their verticals out of the year and gradually test the horizontal concept these guys got their verticals for this year out of the way early and production is set to incline from there while non-operated horizontal wells hit the production line as well and operated horizontal wells will being to be felt in the fourth quarter (that's the quarter ended August 2013). 
    • Horizontal Program:
      • Non-operated:
        • Participated in 11 Hz wells to date with a laundry list of public and private operators in the Niobrara and Codell. 
        • They are seeing increasing amounts on non-operated activity (30 wells are now in the pipeline for development, many but not all of them falling into FY14
        • they do not want to go non-consent on any wells here and have multiple Codell horizontal wells in progress now, which calls into question their budget.
      • Operated HZ program 
        • 4 operated HZ wells in this FY
        • They're showing theoretical spacing at 40 acres (or a total of 36 net wells per section spread over the three Niobrara zones and the Codell but are not yet read to say this will work) .... other operators are moving in that direction. 
  • Nebraska (Pennsylvanian (Lansing play) / Cherokee / Mississippian):
    • Management noted a vertical with a 218 BOEpd IP and a 125 BOEpd 30 day rate from private operator Four Star (nothing on their web site about it yet if ever) in extreme southwest Nebraska and SYRG noted they have seen several other private players with similar results but not seen the news make it into the public domain. 
    • SYRG is about to participated in 2 vertical test wells (non-operated)in extreme northeast Colorado with Chama Resources (which may be a bigger player operating under subsidiary name to avoid attracting attention). 
    • APA is drilling in the area but so far hasn't made huge amounts of noise about it. 
    • When do they spud a well?  Uncertain but they have 118,000 net acres here. 
  • Yuma County Gas (Eastern CO)
    • Low cost vertical wells dry gas wells,
    • First about to spud with private operator Augusta out of Montana
    • Economic at $4 gas and probably down to $3.50.
    • Intriguing since they could punch out a number of these cheaply for a utility or industrail contract purchaser. 
  • Other Stuff:
    • When is the deal? Liquidity is currently somewhat tight as noted in the table below but with cash flow in excess of $8 mm per quarter and an expansion of their borrowing base around the corner a deal is not necessarily imminent. Note in the graph below however that they are no strangers to equity issuance and we don't have a good gauge of their current appetite for further dilution. We do note that they have taken it slow as far moving from vertical to horizontal delineation but that FY2014's program will/should be quite a bit bigger than this year's and that the operated horizontal program will be the focus.
    • EBITDA margins have not been improving but that's probably going to change when they move to horizontals,
    • We don't have a good feel for how much of their Wattenberg acreage could be operated,
    • We don't yet have a feel for a timeline for actual results from the Nebraska program,
    • Valuations based on Street EBITDA are not exactly compelling however little names can often move well ahead of normal ranges and later grow into them as their growth rate slows with size. Also, there is the potential of the Nebraska acreage to consider which at this point is largely an unknown but will not remain so. 
    • We didn't include projections for them for this year or next as the model is a work in progress at this point and I'm not done yet due to some blanks I have to fill in with the company.  Lots of questions by me still and I plan to call them soon. 


Other Stuff 

OAS ups credit facility; ups hedge coverage:

  • Facility goes from $0.75 to $1.25 B; company opts to keep it at $900 mm. Nothing is currently drawn and they should have no need for equity deal this year, barring an acquisition.
  • Oil hedges upped from 65 to about 69% of expected volumes, prices close to $90.


Other Other Stuff:

  • BCEI's investor day is tomorrow,
  • Thursday look for the Global Oil Supply / Demand update

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • AXAS - GHS starts at Neutral, $2.25 target,
  • PDCE - Topeka starts at Hold, $%0 target,
  • FSLR - Baird raises target to $40 from $25, rating Neutral; Piper raises from $28 to $40, rating stays Neutral; Susquehanna raises from $28 to $40, rating stays Neutral. 

106 Responses to “Wednesday Morning”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

     
     
    S&P Areas of Interest 4/10 8:45am AM  ES 1567. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Market above long and short term volume pivot/CHVN at 1548. 4rd Attempt at range extension above 1566.25. Demand volume/breadth positive long and short term. POMO supportive through end of April.  Risk sector low relative strength.  O/N Mkts up. Currencies supportive. $USD  testing support at 82.30, demand volume weak.   Euro at 1.309 Major CHVN, next resistance 1.315. Demand Volume supportive.
     
    Thoughts ………Long and short term Bulls in control above 1355.  Attempting  range extension above 1560 with reaction at 1566.25 key level in the move.  
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price /Ask Questions if you have them.
    1566.25  CLVN/Range extension
    1555 CHVN/Bulls in control above.
    1548.50  CHVN/ Range Volume Pivot
    1527       Major CLVN
    S&P Futures  Short Term
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Es_Composite_2_1304100533.png
    S&P Futures Longer Term /Monthly and Quarterly Profiles/Ask questions if you have them.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/ES_Master_1304100510.png

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Trading around major acceptance/CHVN at 93…Demand volume flat.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Crude_Oil_Multi_Period_1304100552.png

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas trading in balance below resistance at 4.13. Demand volume supportive. Support 3.90
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/NG_Master_1304100556.png

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Fed minutes coming out now instead of this afternoon. Hmm. 

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Oh, minutes were accidentally sent out early to congress and trade groups. 

  6. 6
    elduque Says:

    BDI unch
     
    Brent/WTI at 12
     
    TYX at 2.97 – quite a bit of movement in the 30 yr. treasury on a daily basis. Still a rigged market.
     
    Gold trading down .74% at 1575. Goldman saying it go to 1450. What would the world do without Goldman????

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Listened to the Fed minutes bullets on CNBC, not seeing a lot new in there,   Economy better than expected, Fed not convinced it's sustainable, sees fiscal policy more restrictive and the sequester hurting things, and high continued unemployment. 

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Muted reaction…

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 6 – Pimco bullish on the 10 year now.  http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/09/bill-gross-turns-bullish-on-10-year-treasurys-on-japans-bond-binge/

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    re 8 – yeah, "more of the same from the Fed" in my book … and should add hawks and doves still divided on need for QE. Not shocking. 

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    Refiners  VLO  HFC  came off their support levels like they meant it..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100636.png

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    7.75 has been the hump for HK…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100638.png

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Doing some work on NFX, not sure it will matter until it matters but if you back out last year's natural gas price based revisions the the name starts to look really cheap. 

    CLR was on the tape earlier with a deal to ship Bakken production all the way to Delaware, could be up to 70,000 bopd. More good news for the Bakken and pricing and not so great news for displaced imported crude from Europe and Africa. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    SM  approaching resistance/breakout level
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100642.png

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    re 12 – hear ya, that one definitely pays a lot of attention to the chart. 

    PVA shrugging off the post MHR EFS acquisition Stifel downgrade. 

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    CRK  still running
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100644.png

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX  still don't see any vital signs(even twitches) from larger traders on this one

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    CLR at resistance. Homework last night showed this one to have a big positive shift in large trader volume as it came into 80. Missed that.. It continues though and wouldn't be surprised to see resistance taken out.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100648.png

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    re 17 – hear ya, it's just fallen so far that it's gotta be a target. Take out the revision, and it trades not much above PV10.  Those reserves are not gone, and they are HBP. IF gas recovery is a real thing and over time I believe it is, someone with deep pockets will take note fo that. Maybe someone who is in the Uinta and Bakken would want to core up in those while adding Cana and then the Woodford.  Just musing. 

  20. 20
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 11 NTI another refiner bouncing nicely.   And yielding 18.8%.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

    NG back to $4.10

    Street number this morning back down to a withdrawal of 21 from a consensus of 30 Bcf last night

  22. 22
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume light-ish(25of 85) with lots of green (58 of 85)

  23. 23
    Zorgnak Says:

    #19..on radar

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    OAS ups credit line and hedges and falls a buck. Noise. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 20 – thanks, waiting to play (or not) int he group until the 1Q13 VLO call. 

  26. 26
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA  Sticking my neck(and wallet) out there. Seeing increased large trader interest here since the 4/4 wipe out. Doesn't mean they're right but there you have it..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100704.png

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Zorg – check out the nice pre 1Q13 release (about 4 weeks out) base on EOG

  28. 28
    RMD Says:

    No comments I'm seeing today on SYRG's Q.  I suppose all analysts are at SYRG today and BCEI tomorrow.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 28 – right, SYRG has a rig tour today, guess I will call them tomorrow 

  30. 30
    Zorgnak Says:

    EOG  This one has the strongest long term(180 day) money flow of the stocks I cover. Dips are golden
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100715.png

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    re 30 – yeah. Thanks. 

    Mulling some swaps in my natural gas exposure, may lose a turnaround name in favor of more CRZO.   REXX story starting to get some Utica shine as well but they are still 70% natural gas by volume and this rally in prices doesn't suck for them either. . 

    Oil numbers in a minute. 

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    EIA 

    Crude up 0.3 mm barrels 

    Gasoline up 1.7 mm barrels

    Distillates down 0.2 mm barrels 

    Nothing like the API report so far

  33. 33
    Zorgnak Says:

    WHZ  noted accumulation yesterday. Continues today

  34. 34
    Zorgnak Says:

    #31…CRZO  had this one up when you posted..  Large trader interest continues here. (EOG large trader interest peaked 4/03)
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100732.png

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    EIA

    Crude imports fell back again and are below the range for this time of year

    Refinery through put strong which helped with the gasoline numbers

    Demand

    Gasoline – not great, down a touch from last week, trend needs to pick up soon

    Distillates – less of a concern now but holding in OK, could be export volumes helping again

    Production – new high at 7.18  up 30,000 bopd from last week, inching higher as expected

    Cushing up 0.9 mm barrels, still too high, not record but close

    No change in the exports estimate

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 33 – some blogger wrote a note about it's distributions for 2013. 

     

    Crude liking the head line number for crude stocks. It's a mixed bag of a report in my book,  kind of more of the same, move on, little to see here if you've been paying attention. We should see a new exports number next week. I expect it to be slightly up for distillates and in total. We do need to see stronger gasoline demand on the domestic front soonish. 

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    …. for gasoline to be price supportive of crude prices in the near term. 

    I find it interesting that the U.S. can add just over 1.5 mm bopd in domestic production and OPEC can completely manage price while maintaining, until very recently, production levels well north of their quotas and >  30 mm bopd. 

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    LOL, just saw a GHS comment on the refining space. Clients that have been in the space have taken some profits, clients that have missed the move are waiting for 1Q results, group probable sits here until 1Q earnings. 

  39. 39
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG Near breakout level. Demand volume remains supportive of higher prices
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/NG_Master_1304100751.png

  40. 40
    Zorgnak Says:

    ROSE  has needed volume. Seeing large trader volume start to pick up here
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100756.png

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    CXPO getting a move, have not seen recent Woodbine rumors circulating, anyone? 

  42. 42
    choices Says:

    from alpha-a positive for ND:
    North Dakota breaks ground on the first new U.S. refinery since 1976 with hopes it will resolve the state's diesel demand problem. Despite its status as the no. 2 state in crude production, North Dakota relies on refineries from the Gulf coast and elsewhere for most of its diesel. MDU Resources (MDU) and Calumet Specialty Products (CLMT) hope to make ~8K bbl/day of diesel within 20 months.

  43. 43
    choices Says:

    #6-my guess, Eld, is that Goldman and a few others have more than a few paper shorts to cover.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Zorg – got thoughts on XCO?

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – XCO – Selling Trading positions taken in January and March

    XCO – selling the trading positions taken this year for $7.47, up between 0 and 11%. Still holding the core but will shift proceeds to less a less opaque natural gas focused story. 

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Gas storage now at -18 Bcf, keeps coming down as the day wears on. Elduque – where's Robry at now? 

  47. 47
    elduque Says:

    Robry is still at -3, is the street really at -30? If so, if Robry is right, then going to be a big thud tomorrow. 

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 47 – thanks, see 46. Street figuring it out. 

  49. 49
    Zorgnak Says:

    XCO  I don't see it making it through resistance this time up..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304100918.png

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    re 49 – me either. I've been doing a little questing about in old transcripts. Frankly, I've never liked the attitude of management here and they always seem to be just short of getting 20 deals done. It seems my patience is not limitless and so I sold the trading positions this year. Going to sell the rest I think soon. 

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Anyone find the comments in the President's budget that turned out to be market crack?   Anyone see a link to it yet, wanted to scan for oil and gas company impacts. 

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    LNCO – shorts not having much of an impact. 4th trip to $40+ in progress. 

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Anyone see broker commentary or a story on CXPO, up 10%, no news I see but have a news indicator. 

  54. 54
    choices Says:

    CXPO-only thing I've seen today is that they will present at IPAA-hardly a catalyst for 10% move.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    re 54 – right, thanks, I have a news indicator but no story and no SEC doc, sent out some feelers. 

  56. 56
    choices Says:

    CXPO-not sure-this may have something to do w/it:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1330781-3-stocks-with-lots-of-upside-from-a-new-oil-discovery-under-the-eagle-ford

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CXPO — from an April 2nd PR:
    =========================
     
    In Dimmit County, Texas, Crimson has received the drilling rig and is preparing to spud the Beeler #2H well (50.0% WI) targeting the Buda formation. The Beeler #2H will be drilled to an approximate total measured depth of 11,180 feet, including an approximate 4,000 foot lateral, with initial production rates expected in May. This test represents Crimson’s first well targeting the Buda formation.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Thanks – as the guys says, Buda is pretty spotty and high decline rate from what I've seen. GDP was hot on it about 4 quarters ago, then it got shuffled to the closet when the TMS began to warm up for ECA

  59. 59
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #56 — thanks, choices… didn't know that SA article covered the same bases.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Yeah, its a little odd, the Buda isn't a new thing, it's just spotty, not uniform but GDP noted, you don't ave to frac it either so it's cheap if you are in the right spot. 

  61. 61
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Based on xome "close-ology" the speculation is that CXPP's Buda acreage is in the right spot.   We shall see.  Nothing like actually drilling a well, to answer the question.

  62. 62
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #61 wow… some pretty creative typos in that one… sorry.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    re 62 – don't worry about it, you're keeping me awake which is all that matters, LOL, market has that what next/pre summer feel to it before energy earnings kick in. 

  64. 64
    Zorgnak Says:

    Taking profits here..in a number of names

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    You don't appear to be alone. 

  66. 66
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304101024.png

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    VLO still attracting money
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304101026.png

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Here, digging in on NFX.   Group looks bored. SWN weekly chart looks interesting, REXX, CRZO as well. 

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Oil looking to close up on the day by a few cents, small wonder with the S&P up over a percent. Group a patch quilt of mostly green and mostly not big moves. Volumes look pretty tame. 

  70. 70
    1520sbroad Says:

    anyone see a note on PWE – down 4% for some reason.  Big volume.  Only thing I saw was a snippet from one of the mighty najarian brothers and their option monster aka talkmybook.com

  71. 71
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude shorts still covering again today
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/SCO2_1304101112.png

  72. 72
    RMD Says:

    BCEI's analyst day presentation is 11:00 EST Thursday.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    re 70 – don't see anything 

    re 72 – yes, lousy weather up there (19 i Denver now), I am not going to be there but will have scrolling notes of the webcast.  

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    CL resistance now 96.25
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Crude_Oil_Multi_Period_1304101125.png

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    NOG quietly closing on $15

    EOX moving back towards $7. 

    TPLM – always the laggard of late in the Bakken, should have results out next week. 

  76. 76
    D Edwards Says:

    CXPO took huge impairment to reserves in 2012, anyone know what that was about?

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    re 76 – natural gas price related negative revision to gas reserves. 

  78. 78
    Roger Says:

    Re 75 TPLM, my largest holding, stock has done nothing for 2 years now. You expecting anything next week that might get it moving up?

  79. 79
    D Edwards Says:

    re 77: thx,makes sense, i shouldve guessed as much!

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT C – REXX

    REXX – Sold the 20 shares in the ZLT C accounts taken last July at $11.54 for $17.15, up 49% as the overweighted position had become too much of an overweighted position for these little accounts.  

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    that leaves 30 REXX shares in the ZLT C

  82. 82
    snoles Says:

    78 – Roger, I feel your pain too.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    re 78 / 79 – higher production and strong EBITDA contribution from the RockPile. But I hear ya on the lack of a move so far. I think they complicated the non op to op story by vertically integrating early. This should pay off on the cost side over time but its not as easy to value for E&P analysts and so far they have not gotten the message across on valuing E&P, the frac segment and the midstream segment in a sum of the parts manner as they would like. I expect them to be higher at the end of the year but  I have been mulling taking it down in percentage terms of my total holdings (balancing it out with other more pure E&P oily exposure) should it not begin to perform better from a stock perspective soon (they met their guidance for last year), not going away but its my second largest position as well having added on dips and peaks numerous times over the last 2+ years.   

  84. 84
    choices Says:

    z, O's budget-thought you requested a copy but now cannot find the request:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/10/us/politics/11budget-document.html

  85. 85
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  Closing well with large trader volume picking up towards the end of the day
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/10/Stock_Master_1304101240.png

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Had to step out for a minute, back

    re 84 – thanks

    re 85 – yeah, makes me think something is up in the Woodbine, given the move in CXPO too today. 

  87. 87
    choices Says:

    ROYL-hoo-thought someone mentioned this rocket here:
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/6195281-royale-energy-announces-43-000-000-alaska-north-slope-jv

  88. 88
    mimster90 Says:

    For me TPLM is doing relatively better than NOG.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    re 78 / 82 – no follow up questions/thoughts. 

    The growth has been strong over that two year period going from 74 BOEpd at the beginning to over 2,000 BOEpd at the end of the quarter. They are operated so it's not a NOG thing and they are in North Dakota so its not a Montana's not going to work thing. The have added a rig recently bringing them to 3 to help accelerate growth. Beyond that, ask questions, I hold it, I wait. If they don't get recognition as they growth sharply again this year I'll peal some off as I think the reason would be either A) oil prices fell off in the second half of this year or B) analysts have stuck a conglomerate discount on them. This is why I own quite a few names. OAS did nothing for what, 18 months? Then began to wake up to the fact that it too had been growing all along. As they get bigger per unit costs fall, EBITDA rises and they start to look like a company that's harder and harder to ignore. But yeah, like many of the Bakkens its oscillated around a level for the last two years or so. 

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    re 88 – NOG has different issues. I expect 1Q for all the Bakken guys to be a little bit of a non-event since everyone has said the year is somewhat back-end loaded and Bakken production in aggregate was off in January on winter weather (we saw this in November too) and it's part of what kept U.S production down in the first part of this year.   

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Headlines – natural gas closes up on colder forecast (for next week). 

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Also re NOG, had some notes in the Monday post in The Week That Was section on them. 

  93. 93
    snoles Says:

    89 – All great points Z.  Thanks.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    re 93 – maybe, but I do realize they don't change the fact that it has not performed as I had expected so far,  with rallies always seeming to come back to the mean. 

  95. 95
    john11 Says:

     
    RADNOR, Pa., April 10, 2013 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Penn Virginia Corporation (PVA) announced today it has priced a private placement of $775 million aggregate principal amount of Senior Notes due 2020 (Notes). The private placement of the Notes has been upsized from $400 million to $775 million. The Notes were priced at par and will bear interest at a rate of 8.50 percent per year. The sale of the Notes is expected to close on April 24, 2013. The Notes will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by PVA's existing and future subsidiaries, subject to certain exceptions.
    PVA intends to use approximately $400 million of the net proceeds from the private placement, together with $40 million of equity proceeds, to finance the purchase price (including expected purchase price adjustments) of the previously announced pending Eagle Ford Shale acquisition. Approximately $330 million of the net proceeds from the private placement will be used to fund PVA's obligations under its anticipated tender offer (Tender Offer) for all of its outstanding 10.375 percent senior notes due 2016 (2016 Senior Notes) and the remaining net proceeds will be used to repay outstanding borrowings under PVA's revolving credit facility. If the acquisition does not close by June 30, 2013, the Notes will be redeemed at 100 percent of their initial offering price. To the extent less than all of the outstanding 2016 Senior Notes are tendered in the anticipated Tender Offer or the Tender Offer is not consummated, PVA intends to use the remaining portion of the net proceeds from the issuance and sale of the Notes intended to be used to fund the Tender Offer to redeem any or all of the 2016 Senior Notes remaining outstanding in June 2013.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    PVA – just upsized the heck out of its senior note deal. 

    Deal goes from $400 mm to to $775 mm , places at 8.5%

    Still planning to do $40 mm in equity

    Another $330 mm will know out its 10 3/8% 2016 notes. 

    Remainder pays down the revolver

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    re 95 – you beat me to it. Makes a lot of sense to take that rate down and know the maturity out to 2020 from 2016. 

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    PVA — Holy High Yield, Batman!  That's some UPsizing!!
     
    And for a triple-C issuer too (PVA bonds rated Caa1/B-).  >>crickets<<
     
    Oh well… we all knew those 10 3/8ths were gonna go buh-bye this June.  But, whadda way to take 'em out!  Wow.  If PVA's hedging program will protect the coupon on the upsized deal, then this should be a Power Booster for equity on any operational upside.

  99. 99
    Roger Says:

    Re 89 Your last sentence summarized my portfolio for the last 24 months – oscillating around a level – as it is heavily weighted (perhaps too much so) to the Bakken. Problem is the S&P 500 is up 20% in that time and now I feel the need to reduce my exposure,especially on my overweighted names,  before the inevitable market correction comes and drags our stocks down with it, most likely with ours falling faster than the market, as they seem to do. Was just hoping to get  a little run in TPLM and some of the others before I lighten up. But maybe I can't have my cake and eat it too.

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP!

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 99 – I hear ya. I was flat last year other than the tiny, nearly untraded accounts which did pretty well. This year up about 10% in aggregate through last Friday.  E&P didn't have a great year last year, had much better 2009-2011, so in my view, 2012 was something rest with some names performing, some names rest and others acting like landmines like an SSN or an NFX. NOG was more of a trickle down. Anway, fundamentals in the ZLT have largely been strong and I don't mean something sort of esoteric like an F&D measure but simply higher production meets strong to flat commodity prices meaning more units are spread over overhead meaning higher EBITDA and if the names are not busing the balance sheet, better multiples. I've been mulling taking money of the table since mid February and net net have taken little off so far. I had thought the should season would be much sloppier for the gassy players than it has been and instead, the oily names stalled out post 4Q reporting season, one after another, with strong or with only ok results, didn't really matter. Anyway, part of why I am long term is that I the short term stuff is noise and as such is unpredictable. The longer term idea is to pick the guy that grows production, margins and the EBITDA line so that eventually TEV gets marked up and not just due to debt on the balance sheet moving higher. . 

  102. 102
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Cramer: Newest best friend NBL. Leapfrogs over EOG as his best pick in energyland. Does also look cheap to me.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    re 102 – fine with me, let it drag my BCEI higher. 😉

  104. 104
    PackMan Says:

    TPLM – not sure if I missed any chatter the past couple of days, but just wondering if there is a reason anyone can point to as to why its trading so poorly relative to the group lately.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    re 104 – Nope, have not seen anything. See 84. 

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    The Thursday post is up

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