01
Apr

Monday Morning Repost

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Market Sentiment Watch: Welcome to 2Q13. In energy land expect news flow to begin to pick up again prior to 1Q13 reporting season with a string of spring time conferences and with the quarterly mark to market season in full swing now for analysts as they update their models (especially on the natural gas side). In today's post please find comments on the natural gas macro (weaker production, strong demand for January (and a record level for the Industrial component)). 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Chinese official March PMI came in at 50.9 vs 50.1 in February,
  • Chinese HSBC PMI came in at 51.6 for March vs 50.4 in February,
  • We get ISM at 10 am EST (F = 54.2%, last read 54.2%),
  • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 1%, last read -2.1%)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 4/2: factory orders, car sales, 
  • Wednesday 4/3: ADP payrolls, ISM non-manufacturing, 
  • Thursday 4/4: jobless claims, 
  • Friday 4/5: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, trade gap, consumer credit. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Natural Gas Marco
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Odds and ends (still waiting on OEDV to report at post time)
  6. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ... Holdings Watch:

 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • The Blotter is updated.

 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil (WTI) closed up 4% last week at $97.23 with Brent rising 2%. Crude was helped by a strong distillate demand number and by a generally record seeking equity market but the weekly numbers were largely a non-event (see The Week That Was section below for more details).This morning crude is trading off slightly. 

Natural gas closed up 2% at $4.02 on Friday after EIA reported a bigger than expected, almost record sized withdrawal on Thursday. The front month now looks like this and the 12 month strip, which now sits at $4.19 now looks like this on the five year chart. See The Week That Was section below for more comments on storage. On Friday EIA released the latest available supply and demand for natural gas (for the month of January) and in a nutshell, one could use the word "bullish" but read on and we'll just say that things are working according to plan and that we are more "encouraged". This morning gas is trading off slightly on the more shoulder season like mildness of the forecast. 

  • Rig Count Watch: You'll see more on this in the slide show below but just wanted to point out that the gas-directed rig count so far is ignoring the now 1 year long rally in natural gas prices and fell to 389 last week, below 400 rigs for the first time this cycle. While the gas directed rig count is less of an indicator due to all the gassy liquids rich wells being drilled this is still a positive for righting the supply/demand imbalance and points to the correctness of recent commentary about $4 gas not really being enough of a price increase to get people to send many net rigs back to work. Wwe say "net" because some rigs will arrive due to some E&Ps having nothing better (oilier) to drill while others with oilier prospect inventories like an EOG are still taking purely gas directed rigs out of the system.  By the way, this is not what your average NAM focused oil service company has been predicting. 
  • Weather Watch:
    • Last week saw heating degree days of 148 vs
      • 176 HDDs in the prior week (which produced the 95 Bcf withdrawal last Thursday)
      • and 125 normal for the week.
    • This week's forecast calls for HDDs to move down to 117 vs 113 normal for this time of year.

The Natural Gas Macro - Supply (Production and Imports) vs Demand. 

 

  • Production Watch:  January 2013  production retreated to 67.6 Bcfgpd, down 0.7 Bcfgpd from December levels, was also down -0.7 Bcfgpd YoY, and was the second consecutive month of retreat in production. Some of this dip is due to weather related freeze ups especially in some of the western square states but not Texas, the Gulf of Mexico and especially Louisiana (down 18% in the last 12 months!). Total production growth from the Lower 48 U.S. has not advanced significantly in 16 months. See graphs below for details. 
  • Imports Watch:  More gas being sent out of the U.S. and less coming in has been the trend. Net imports crept up in January on a seasonal uptick in volumes coming down from Canada but on a year over year basis, imports are off a whopping 1.1 Bcfgpd. See graphs below.    
  • Demand Watch: Just short of record levels but second highest gas demand on record. Industrial demand hit an all time record in January and the only reason total consumption wasn't at record levels was due to January's mildness.  See graphs below. 

 

Production:

.

Imports:

.

Demand:

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

Other Stuff

  • OEDV - OEDV should report 4Q results today. 
  • REXX - As expected, REXX's spring borrowing base redetermination resulted in an increase in the borrowing base from $240 mm to $325 mm with a $300 mm commitment level. At last notice, the credit line remained untapped and cash, borrowing capacity and cash flow pointed to no need for an equity offering this year relative to their current capital program.  
  • GST settled its litigation claims with CHK and repurchased it's shares held by CHK for $85 mm.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • HK - Wells Fargo initiates at Outperform

113 Responses to “Monday Morning Repost”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    BCEI on the tape with a $250 mm senior private placement. 

  2. 2
    milepost_43 Says:

    and you just thought the XL pipeline had had problems…aaarrrggghhh…
    One week after the Senate held a symbolic vote in favor of the Keystone XL pipeline, the U.S. saw two different oil spills involving Canadian tar sands crude oil.

    An ExxonMobil pipeline ruptured Friday, leaking approximately 10,000 barrels of tar sands crude in an Arkansas town. As a result, 22 homes have been evacuated as officials clean up of the world’s dirtiest oil:
    Exxon shut the Pegasus pipeline, which can carry more than 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil from Pakota, Illinois, to Nederland, Texas, after the leak was discovered on Friday afternoon, the company said in a statement.

    The first oil spill came Wednesday, when a train reportedly carrying tar sands oil spilled 15,000 gallons in Minnesota. Also this week, Exxon was hit by a $1.7 million fine for a pipeline that dumped 42,000 gallons of oil in the Yellowstone River in 2011.

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 4/1 8:49am AM  ES 1562.50. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes….Attempting range expansion above 1558.75. Minor CHVN at 1553.75 Demand volume supportive on all time frames. Breadth trend supportive. POMO supportive through end of April. Risk sectors supportive.  O/N Mkts weak, Europe closed. Currencies, $USD  consolidating uptrend with Demand Volume positive in all time frames. Range extension above 83.31. Euro Support/Resistance  1.285/1.268.
     
    Thoughts ……. Bulls in control above 1353.75. Internals and liquidity remain supportive. Expecting dips to 10 day range lows to continue to be bought.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1558.75 CLVN
    1553.75 CHVN
    1546-49  CHVN/ Range Volume Pivot
    1540.   Minor CLVN
    1531.50  CLVN /Volume gap to 1525.75
    1505       CLVN
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Es_Composite_2_1304010532.png
    $USD /DXY Uptrend with range expansion above 83.31
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/DX_1304010554.png

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    BCEI – as previously stated, no need for an equity raise

    Analyst Watch: 

    RRC – Global Hunter ups target $3 to $88 but cuts rate from Accumulate to Neutral. Go figure. 

  5. 5
    elduque Says:

    GST suit with CHK settled. 

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil   Support/Resistance  96/98 Demand volume positive in all time frames.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Crude_Composite_1304010610.png
    Natural Gas  Support/Resistance 3.87/4.13  Demand volume positive on the daily and weekly time frames, fading on the intra-day.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/NG_Composite_1304010613.png

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    KWK – going to bounce today on Barnett sale announced Friday. No interest by me in chasing. 

  8. 8
    mimster90 Says:

    is blotter updated with SDCJF?

  9. 9
    elduque Says:

    GMXR filed for Chapter 11. 

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GMXR = Chapter 11 filing.  We saw this one coming from a long way off.  Not gloating (in the least)… just pointing out what collaborative research can accomplish. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    re 8 – It is now, thanks. We had two posting glitches this morning. Blotter should show both SDCJF sale and REXX add from last Thursday. 

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 9 – how not shocking. 

    re 10 – yep, and, sad to say, they really brought that on the move with very gunslinger like strategic shifts. 

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Morning BOP – equity holders over at BCEI should consider doing your happy dance about now. 

    Re GST – yeah, saw that, first thought is $85 mm is no small pill to swallow there. Second thought is I would need to go and have a look to see what I think and 3rd thought is I'm probably just not interested. 

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #12 — was going to point out that GMXR was a victim of its own internal lack of operational focus.  This is why SD is so dangerous.  And why I am comfortable (relatively) with EXXI.  Operational Focus (or Sticking to One's Knitting) is a key factor in financial success.  Just stating the obvious, I know…

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    REXX – RMD noted REXX pulled out of GHS this week. 

    "I hear REXX canceled for next week's presentation at GHS.  Financing or M&A anyone?"

    My response then:

     

    "They did a senior deal in December. Borrowing base of 240 is untapped and they have cash on the balance sheet as well. Shouldn't be a financing. "

     

    John or anyone, do you have GHS schedule?

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #13 — BCEI shareholders should like this move… a LOT.  Smart time to grab some cheap cash combined with operational focus and nicely-ramping production.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Natural gas coming off a touch on the warmer forecast. Friday's production and demand numbers were better than expected.  Louisiana now coming off faster than "other states" segment can replace it. Everything else a mixed bag, mostly flat, Wyoming and New Mexico are slipping, TX flat, OK up a touch. Meanwhile demand has been very strong.  

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    NG holding just under $4

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

    We'll have a natural gas sensitivity piece out for the gassy players a little later this week along with a revised natural gas price deck. 

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    PVA management – time to step up and buy your own shares. 

  20. 20
    D Edwards Says:

    Re 5 GST $85m price tag worries me.  They should be able to cover it with current financing, but it'll be tight.  On a positive note, they did acknowledge possibility of selling East Texas assets to help finance the transaction.  I had thought for a while they would sell ET assets to pay off prefs, but I guess mgmt has elected to grow the acreage instead.  The new acreage in the Hunton should be oily and is right near the SCOOP, which is exciting. I generally like the move mgmt made with the caveat that the price is somewhat scary.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    ISM = 51.3%, much lower than expected. 

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    OEDV plans to report after the close. 

  23. 23
    brodway Says:

    Talk about a detailed natural gas report. Takes me way back to Economics class perusing elasticity charts . Awesome stuff Zman.  Now have to figure out how to make money from this information.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    re 23 – thanks. The macro is evolving into one that yields better natural gas prices over time. I am slowly upping my exposure to gassier names (and have been for over a year now). The shoulder season typically gets sloppy for prices  as we have little in the way of cooling load or heating demand and we could see some large April injections since, although production has come off its highs, it is still relatively very high. I plan to use the sloppiness in prices to continue to add to gassy positions opportunistically and perhaps to take on one more gassy stalwart. 

    Analyst Watch:

    COG – GHS cutting to Neutral.  Hello short sighted seasonal valuation call. 

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    That dip in the natural gas rig count below 400 is not what NAM levered OIH names have been looking for.  I didn't buy into the 4Q comments which contributed to runs in names like HAL and CRR. Not going there. 

  26. 26
    D Edwards Says:

    re 20 GST also buying back 6.7m shares at $1.44 is pretty sweet given where the equity trades today

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 2 – yeah, that's not far from here. Also noted Shell has a leak in LA. http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-shuts-part-la-tx-150948982.html

  28. 28
    brodway Says:

    re: 24
    can't say we are that warm in the NorthEast. the forecast this week call for temp. still below 60 which is unusual especially when its opening day for Yankees vs. Red Sox.  🙂

  29. 29
    snoles Says:

    19 – Ditto

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Would think BCEI will end up upsizing that $250 mm senior deal announced today to $300 mm or a little more to give themselves some more room. 

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    re 28 – right. I measure things via the climate prediction center's heating degree day units and further, into the gas consuming population weighted HDD reading. 

  32. 32
    brodway Says:

    liking TPLM here. sitting right around Zorg's support level and retest of the recent lows.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    adding to 31. If you go here:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/hfstwpws.txt

    Then scroll down past normal HDDs, you'll see gas-weighted HDDs and below that, you will see Oil weighted HDDs (heating oil). Note how much bigger HDDs are when viewed in that light (159 vs 117 for the gas weighted measure). 

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    re 32 – earnings there in 2 weeks. Ramping to 3 operated rigs shortly thereafter and activating in house frac spread #2 around mid year. Should be another eye pleasing report. 

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Zorg – how do volumes look to you for time of day?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Bakken leadership names dipping.

    Probably due to this:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCSUHC1:IND

    Which is probably due to recent spate of transportation snafu.   This too shall pass. 

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    #35…Volumes heavier than recent sessions  40 of 85 higher than average for time of day with only 12 greens…Friday's close was weak as well..

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    BCEI watch

    Since they reported the last quarter, mid March EBITDA estimates have

    2013E went from $265 mm to $277 mm, and 

    2014E went from $402 mm to $419 mm 

    Investor day here is a week from Thursday. 

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    re 37 – thanks, quarter starting with a little PT it seems, not seeing a lot of credit given to news today. 

  40. 40
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..Returning to recent risk range with 1553.75 as first CHVN.  Bulls still in control above that level. Below that… expecting increasing volatility
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Es_Composite_2_1304010743.png

  41. 41
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP  E&P ETF breaking support with demand volume going negative on the daily and intra-day..not expecting support (60.20) to hold. Expecting further testing lower.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304010753_2.png

  42. 42
    D Edwards Says:

    Zman, you got any thoughts on Genie Energy GNE?

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 42 – Nope, I'm mostly an upstream / service guy, I stay away from the midstream and anything that looks like a utility, just not my area. 

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume continues to expand here with 47 above average for time of day

  45. 45
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude testing support at 96. Next defined support at 94
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Crude_Composite_1304010823.png

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    NG back to even. 

    http://www.investing.com/commodities/natural-gas

  47. 47
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 36, I don't understand your point.  The link shows Bakken prices seem slightly above WTI and moving slightly upward.   Why would that cause Bakken stocks to be down?

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 47 – They have been holding 50 cents over, I show them off $2.50 and down $2.00 from WTI today. It's not a big deal, was just musing. It could also be the tiny retreat in oil today. 

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – CRZO – adding on group weakness. 

    CRZO – Added to the core position in the ZLT at an average cost of $25.41. A gassy name with a Niobrara twist, substantial leverage, growing oiliness and a strong but not completely filled out hedge position for 2013. This is our first add to the Core postion after taking a starter position in mid January 2013.  Recall they posted a big 4Q12 beat in late February with EBITDA margins rising to a new high and commented on a strong Niobrara program.   See today's post for gas macro comments. 

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    BOP – got XACS?

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Offtopicthirty, grabbing lunch, back in a bit. 

  52. 52
    elduque Says:

    GST is up 14.7% . Maybe a different co. Definitely will be more balanced.

  53. 53
    Zorgnak Says:

    Market being drawn back towards acceptance at around 1546-49.So far bulls defending 1553.75 so the range expansion remains a possible scenario. Below 1553.75 the other scenario becomes edge-less to my eye until a pull back below 1536 offers the next high odds buying opportunity. 
    S&P Futures < 1536,is the  level of interest for next bounce attempt
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/ES41_zps4a2262e8.png
    SPY 154 Is roughly the same bounce level as 1536 on the S&P Futs
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304010842.png

  54. 54
    Zorgnak Says:

    CRZO  Holding support on the reversal. Next support at 24.50-ish
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304010937.png

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    re 52 – agreed. 

    Thanks Zorg. 

  56. 56
    Zorgnak Says:

    SWN
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011001.png

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    EOX – recent reading wor:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/03/14/thursday-oil-review-plus-natural-gas-storage-preview-plus-ftk-eox-earnings-plus-bcei-4q-preview/

    and this

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2013/03/13/wednesday-morning-bakken-midget-snapshot/

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    LINE / LNCO has a new presentation out with a new NAV calc, will have a look in a bit. 

    re 56 – I may add another trading position there but am pretty full up at the moment. Thinking they announce a Brown Dense JV later this month. What are you thinking in terms of the chart there.  Alternatively, I'm mulling a first entry in COG which I see as a go to name (kind of obvious from the chart) for natural gas longer term.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE- ZLT – EOX Starter Taken 

    EOX – Took a starter position in this non-operated turning operated Bakken player story at an average cost just under $6.91. See summary thoughts on the name under this ticker on the pull down menu on the site or in comment 57 under today's post. 

  60. 60
    Zorgnak Says:

    #58….Demand volume on the weekly and monthly now positive…I was seeing this 36 zone as having volume support below. Also, going back to 2002 when SWN has pulled back with the current setup it has been a 77% successful swing swing trade with 2.68 profit factor. I like it when I have volume profile support and a solid shorter price range setup with longer term bullish demand recently going positive.
     

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Natural gas green now. 

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    re 60 – thanks much, makes perfect sense. 

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    A little greening of the group in progress. 

  64. 64
    Zorgnak Says:

    ROSE  Thinking it gets a little easier from here…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011054.png

  65. 65
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    A few debt market comments:  1) junk debt still very much "Open for Business" and 2) if you're Goldman Sachs, you can pretty much get around any rule you want to… or get it changed/written to suit you.  Good ol' crony capitalism at work.  The only cure for this is to put a stake thru the heart of "Too Big To Fail." 
     
    On another note:  I'm not a personal fan of David Stockman (he personally profited from overleveraging companies, overpromising results, overestimating his intelligence/influence, and then losing everybody's else's money — debt and equity holders included)… but I agree with the majority of his historical perspective on how the US got to where we are today.  (Book spoiler:  it aint pretty… and its probably too ingrained to "fix."  Sigh.)
    ================================================================
     
    Goldman Sachs High-Yield Credit Fund Files to Raise Money in IPO
    2013-04-01 17:52:34.173 GMT
     
     
    By Christine Harper
         April 1 (Bloomberg) — A Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
    investment unit that specializes in buying high-yield or unrated debt is seeking to raise money through an initial public offering.
         Goldman Sachs Liberty Harbor Capital LLC, based in New York and organized as a business-development company, filed a preliminary prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 29. The firm has invested about $72.7 million in eight companies since it was initially funded by Goldman Sachs in November, according to the filing.
         Goldman Sachs raised about $2.7 billion in 2007 for a hedge fund called Liberty Harbor that invested in credit. During the
    2008 financial crisis Goldman Sachs converted to a bank. The
    2010 Dodd-Frank Act’s so-called Volcker Rule limits banks from investing more than 3 percent of their own money in private- equity or hedge funds.
         Goldman Sachs employees and lawyers met in February 2012 with Federal Reserve Board staff to request that regulators exempt credit funds from the 3 percent limit, according to a summary published by the Fed. The preliminary prospectus said that Goldman Sachs Liberty Harbor Capital was organized as a business development company and funded by Goldman Sachs on Nov.
    15.
         “We expect and intend that we will not be covered under the Volcker Rule once such rule is fully effective,” according to the preliminary prospectus. “The full impact on us will not be known with certainty until the rules are finalized.”
     
                           Portfolio Companies
     
         The prospectus doesn’t say how much the fund intends to raise in the offering.
         The prospectus lists the following portfolio companies:
    Affordable Care Inc., based in Kinston, North Carolina; Dispensing Dynamics International, based in Industry, California; Goodrich Petroleum Corp., based in Houston; Hutchinson Technology Inc., based in Hutchinson, Minnesota; JG Wentworth Inc., based in Radnor, Pennsylvania; Lone Pine Resources Canada Ltd., based in Calgary; Molycorp Inc., based in Greenwood Village, Colorado; Washington Inventory Service, based in San Diego.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Rumor going about NFX is seeing talent walk out the door, trying to get some detail. 

  67. 67
    blackgold39 Says:

    From a good source within NFX:
     
    "Newfield is in an uproar at the moment.  They have offered voluntary separation packages for everyone in the corporate office and all the commercial folks in the BU's – criteria being 50 and above and 5 years service.  Lots of folks are angry and looking and of course the recruiters are out in force.  Problem is that it has sent such a negative message that folks are leaving that probably would not have."

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    re 65 – thanks much BOP. 

  69. 69
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    If you missed David's uplifting commentary in the Easter Sunday edition of the NYTs, here it is.  If you believed his scenario is imminent, you would sell all your stocks today and go find a cave filled with cans of beans and ammo in which to live.  I don't think it's imminent… but these are the clouds on the horizon (albeit, still far away) that keep me up at night.
     
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/sundown-in-america.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    re 67 – hmm, always darkest before the dawn. 

  71. 71
    isleworth Says:

    More fracking bashing – this time on it being the cause of increased earthquake activity – http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-01/more-evidence-that-fracking-causes-earthquakes

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    re 69 – I did see some of his stuff come across Twitter yesterday. Future market direction probably lies somewhere between him and Nouriel and the guy CNBC had on awhile ago who's headline said "ignore the fundamental headlines, this rally is different". Sheesh, ugh, etc. 

  73. 73
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy Income alive and well with AMLP,FEN and AMJ all green
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011119.png

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    re 71 – I've spoke to geologist and guys that frac wells (who know a little bit about putting energy into the ground.).  They seem to buy that if you have an unknown fault and a salt water disposal well on top of it you can create a quake. Fraccing is much more of a mixed bag of commentary. I've not heard about a lot of frac related quakes in the Bakken or the Eagle Ford. The Fayetteville has had a series of small ones that centered around a SWD well. I think its one of those topics that is loud but gets no traction at the end of the day. Maybe you see some adjusted practices (they shut down the Fayetteville SWD well and moved disposal to a different area) but I don't think ti'll be a big deal. 

  75. 75
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #71 — another way to look at that is maybe the State/Local governments should be kicking in to subsizide the fracking.  After all, if fracking can artificially induce a series of relatively small earthquakes… that can take the pressure off Mother Nature's Plan for The Big One.  (It's just physics… the energy/frictional buildup gots to go somewhere… if you can relieve it in a series of little quakes, that's bettern the alternative.)
     
    Try using that as an argument at a NYC cocktail party someday.  😉

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #75 — this argument assumes you are fracking in the neighborhood of an existing, somewhat active, natural fault.  If there's no natural fault in the area, i do not believe that fracking causes any sort of earthquake at the surface that a human being (and most prairie dogs) could feel.

  77. 77
    501xx Says:

    Re: Quakes.  I think here in California (Monterrey Shale areas) it may be prove top be a bigger development obstacle than anywhere else.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    re 75 – love it

    re 76 – you are one of the G&G types to which I was referring.  I'm with ya. I note those articles do not note how much in terms of severance and ad valorem taxes the plays bringing into the state or the jobs. Saw an article over the weekend noting the EFS alone brought Texas $61 B last year in total value.  http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantonio/news/2013/03/26/eagle-ford-shales-impact-topped-60.html?ana=twt

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    RBC noting WTI focused names underperformed Brent focused names despite the sharp narrowing of the WTI-Brent spread last month. Basically saying they see it as good for the Bakken players going forward.

    We agree and think that tightening along with the tight differential for Bakken crude to WTI will help with mark to market season adjustments and go forward thinking for the Bakken Players list in general. 

    We'd add that given the wider spread of late which has helped with desirability of US exports it would stand to reason that some of the refining group attractiveness is beginning to erode.   We own no refining group names at this time. 

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Zorg –  I like the tightening wedge EOX has moved into. Real news here is probably 45 days out but I would expect it to creep up into the release of the IPs on the first 3 operated wells. 

  81. 81
    Zorgnak Says:

    #80…Lot's to like from the price graph and some to like with the volume profile as well. It managed to reverse back above the supply line at 6.85 today. You might have have something to do with that….creating chart formations again are we?????
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011152.png

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    re 81 – heh, that's funny, thanks. 

  83. 83
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX  Rallying on the the thought of new talent??

  84. 84
    Zorgnak Says:

    MVO Rolln' 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011158.png

  85. 85
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011200.png

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    re 83 – I wouldn't think so, they have always been well thought of in that regard. Also, they were a victim of their own success in the international segment last year.  You could see some shareholder activism soon … good assets, good teams, capital constrained but working on that … at some point that should shift.  It's on the list of things that I think will rally early this quarter (today not withstanding for all those names) in a sort of reverse window dressing move.  

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    re 84 – interesting yield name I do not own, but think Eli does. Have meant to do more work on it. 

  88. 88
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDP  Support at 14.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011201.png

  89. 89
    Zorgnak Says:

    #87 thanks to whoever brought into the light..

  90. 90
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 66, 67, Thanks for the heads up, I dumped my NFX overboard to cut my losses.   It has been my observation that when company management creates chaos in their employees, it takes a long time to turn the company around.  

  91. 91
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume backed off in the PM…greens expanding out some
     notable price+volume
     Downside BAS  SJT
    Upside  MVO 

  92. 92
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS reversed off minor support on high volume today
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/04/01/Stock_Weekly_2_1304011213.png

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    re 90 – hear ya. I am a multi year hold now, not that that should matter at all,  and plan to see how the 1Q13 goes for them. 

    Getting on a call, back in a bit. 

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    And 2Q13 starts off with a yawn.  Not exactly shocking given last week's strive for the record type rally. 

  95. 95
    Stewart Says:

    Z..ever take a look at GNE? 

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    re 95 – apologies, but know, not my area. 

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    NOG on the tape with an increased borrowing base pr.   Was $350 mm, goes to $400 mm.   Current balance outstanding is $139 mm. 

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner Watch:  The winner of the ZEB 1Q13 contest goes to Elduque with his pick of GDP, up 78% during the quarter. Congrats El-d, nice call. 

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    OEDV will be filing in the morning. They filed this evening but missed the deadline, so they will file an NT K (late filing). and then a 10K , and then they will press release the quarter.   As previously noted a number of times, we expect 4Q production to be down sequentially due to the timing of well hookups and we have asked them multiple times if they could include in the press release some color on recent month or current production levels, so we'll be looking for that tomorrow. 

  100. 100
    D Edwards Says:

    $REXX energy company plane: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N37MH

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 100 – cool but I don't see anything unusual about that. 

  102. 102
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Cramer best turn around story NFX.

  103. 103
    D Edwards Says:

    re 101, just thought it was cool… also it could be watched if you think they are in advanced M&A talks

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    re 103 – right, definitely cool, just given where they are at it looks like just standard ops, maybe a management visit to a Marellus pad. 

    re 102 – well that's interesting, I'm impressed. 

  105. 105
    D Edwards Says:

    re 104 was there a conference in Houston on February 6-8? I'm thinking if they met with anyone, it was during their two day trip to Houston (looks like they picked someone up in MS before going as well)

  106. 106
    D Edwards Says:

    Sorry for the aircraft blitz here, but I found the other plane they use as well: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N227LS/history/20121206/1930Z/KPIT/KBFD

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    re 105 – yes there were a couple in early Feb.  What a wonderful modern world we live in 😉

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    and Edward, don't apologize, that's pretty slick. 

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    SSN on the tape with a non event press release announcing the have set the conductor casing in the first 4 infill wells at North Stockyard.  They do note that 2 will be Bakken wells and 2 will be TFS tests.   They are batch drilling each step of the 4 wells so drill to surface casing depth, skid the rig, drill next one to surface casing depth, etc.   The expect to begin drilling in 10 days. No update on the ongoing rights offering. 

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Eld – Robry modeling 94 Bcf this week. Seems way high to me, but more power to him.  I'm close to 70 Bcf and I thought that was high. 

  111. 111
    brodway Says:

    re:110
    far cry from last years add to supply. anything in the  70 to 94 range would be good withdrawal number

  112. 112
    choices Says:

    US NG attracts foreign companies-mentioned here previously but this is a fairly good update:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/european-industry-flocks-to-cheap-us-gas/2013/04/01/454d06ea-8a2c-11e2-98d9-3012c1cd8d1e_story_1.html

  113. 113
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