29
Dec

Sunday Post for Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Cliff Watch continues. See the housekeeping watch below.

Click the link directly below this to ... 

Housekeeping Watch: Today's post is primarily a place for people to comment this week as we are on vacation in what is normally a low activity time of the year in terms of name specific news flow. The early year conferences begin next week and we'd expect several of our names to use this opportunity to give their latest operations update and for several but not all of those who have not guided yet for 2013 to do so. We will check in from time to but will have limited connectivity some days. We may post later in the week but cannot guarantee it. Looking forward to 2013 and we'll have our model comments for natural gas out early next week after we've seen the October data which we expect to show flat to slightly up Lower 48 production and record demand (for the month). Have a Happy New Year and Thanks and Best, Z

Ecodata Watch:

  • No ecodata today, market closes at regular time. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 1/1: No ecodata, market closed,
  • Wednesday 1/2: China PMI, ISM, Construction spending, 
  • Thursday 1/3:  ADP employment, jobless claims, car sales, 
  • Friday 1/4: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report (10:30 am EST), EIA Oil Inventory Report 11 am EST), nonfarm payrols, unemployment rate, ISM NM, factory orders. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

Changes are details in the The Week That Was section, tables will be updated at the end of the week, and the blotter is up to date.

Commodity Watch

Crude oil closed up 2% last week at $90.80 despite a set of bearish looking data out of API and EIA and a solidly weak equity market. Oil was buoyed by reports of record demand from China and probably to a lessor extent by military exercises by Iran's navy. For details on just what was weak about the EIA report see The Week That Was Section.

Natural gas closed at $3.47 on Friday, up less than a percent on the week after the EIA reported a weaker than expected withdrawal from storage due to relatively mild weather. This past week's weather improved markedly and while we should see a better withdrawal this Friday's report the impact of power outages and especially of the holiday will mute the impact on demand. 

The Week That Was

Stuff We Care About Today

   TBA if warranted. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • TBA

356 Responses to “Sunday Post for Monday Morning”

  1. 1
    Dillon Says:

    Z – CIE for the contest. If you look back at the "Christmas Eve Monday" post, I claimed it on post 63 so you know I got it in before 12/28. Have a nice vacation!

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Cliff talks at standstill. Futures going to be ugly tonight.  

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    #2 Not even gonna look until the morning….well maybe a little.

  4. 4
    Zorgnak Says:

    Status of Cliff Negotiations
    https://twitter.com/jonkarl/status/285498918417088513/photo/1

  5. 5
    brodway Says:

    That's more like a cliff hanger.

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    McCain says he had to start off with a big demand so he can get what he really wanted. The Democrats failed to respond to the Republican demand. Are they playing a game of Mexican stand off?

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    ES Overnight Volume Composite before the open..closed at 1382.25 CLVN. Next down side CLVNs at 1369.50 and 1360..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/30/Es_Composite_2.png

  8. 8
    brodway Says:

    the 1370-1430 range has really been a yo yo. 

  9. 9
    Zorgnak Says:

    1389.50 is upside resistance..there now

  10. 10
    brodway Says:

    Hope we don't get stuck in this rut for some time. With the fiscal cliff the dairy cliff and the debt to the ceiling it seems our representative all agree to disagree. Its upsetting to see that they can't past issues that will set us back just when we were peaking our heads out a terrible depression.

  11. 11
    RB Says:

    SSN operations update….essentially swapping interests with partners in the N Stockyards field so that they can develop the acreage they get in the swap at 160 acre spacing

  12. 12
    john11 Says:

    Have a great vacation Zman, you deserve it.  Great work all year, thank you!

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks much. In Ladera Ranch. Nice, snow on the Saddleback Mountains. Tempting. What are futures doing ?

  14. 14
    milepost_43 Says:

    13  DOW showing -68 on open..CO 90.65…Sec Clinton in hospital with blood clot from concussion

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

     CHINESE PMI RISES TO 51.5  best reading in a couple years…

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..snug up against key resistance at 1389.50. Next acceptance higher at 1400-1406. I expect a successful political resolution will test back to 1400-06 and likely higher. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/30/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512.png
    Crude and Nat Gas Futures trading off and now mostly unchanged…

  17. 17
    snuhart Says:

    CME site showing :
    (As of about 10 min ago)
    mini Dow  up 28 and S&P up 5.00. 

  18. 18
    milepost_43 Says:

    17 but DOW -55 to Fair Value

  19. 19
    PackMan Says:

    That is b/c futures sold off hard from 4 pm to 4:15 pm on Friday

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…Stuck overnight at the 1389.50 CLVN/resistance. First upside target at 1400-06(moving up as I write this). A break above 1406 has room to move higher with 1418 CLVN as the key level for further expansion. 
     
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/Es_Composite_2.png

  21. 21
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    even with all the drama out of the White House, it still seems we are stuck in the same range of trade on the S&P. Also note that both the Euro and the 10 year note both have been relatively stable telling a slightly different tale then the one being played out in Washington

  22. 22
    Zorgnak Says:

    #21…yeah…since summer the mkt has been rotating around the 1400 CHVN with the exception of the post election freak out. To my eye 1389 and 1418 are the key levels for range expansion going forward. Internals are scrambled at the moment so I'm not doing much until I see if buyers or sellers show up at those two levels. Not much opportunity with the market opening up big…I'd prefer a test lower to 1389.50 or to 1382.75/Friday's low
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  23. 23
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTI at 19.3
     
    TYX at 2.89

  24. 24
    brodway Says:

    CRZO upgraded by Jeffereis on the recent sale of assets.

  25. 25
    brodway Says:

    re: 22
    agreed. the fiscal cliff is only part of the political debate.they have yet to discuss the 800 gorilla, namely the debt ceiling and the farm bill, and at the rate they are going  (voted the least productive Congress in history), there's no hurry in doing anything. this is a great time to hit the slopes, drink some hot chocolate (or brandy) and smoke a good cigar.

  26. 26
    brodway Says:

    CHK coming down to support area held for last 6 months.

  27. 27
    brodway Says:

    RRC trading below its recent support. Natural gas is really not getting much love this morning

  28. 28
    tomdavis12 Says:

    LINE – Over last two years $35 has been support and $40 – $42 resistance. I believe either LINE or LNCO can be bought here. I am expecting a 5% dividend increase in '13. LNCO does have a lower dividend than LINE. The current premium is still a surprise to me. Will be checking with company to see if they are surprised. Z had made point that one of the original reasons to bring out LNCO was to expand the interest in the company. Mission Accomplished. 

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    Senate Reconvenes
    http://www.bloomberg.com/live-stream/

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Sorry to miss the cliff fun. 

    LNCO – hear ya Tom, 6 cents less but lots less headache and new faces in the name. I would not expect it to stray too far from the mother ship though, 2% to maybe 3% , bet over time they spiral about each other. 

    MMR – pretty good early value now for the JBRT. I may punt at 16 on the small accounts as they don't need to hold a penny stock RT

    thanks for the updates, will check on in a bit. 

     

  31. 31
    mimster90 Says:

    I got a prompt reply from SJT. Posting here as others have expressed interest on what they have to say.
     
    I have a short reply from ConocoPhillips regarding your inquiry about the high capital costs and lease operating expenses over the past several months.
     
    They said there was a horizontal well drilled in the 4th quarter that accounted for most of the increase in capital spending. They will be able to look into the increase in lease operating expenses after the first of the year — so we don't have an answer on that yet. I'll let you know when I hear back.
     
    Thanks for your patience!
    Happy New Year!
     
    Kaye Wilke
    Investor Relations
    866-809-4553

  32. 32
    elduque Says:

    Should be a positive??? Thanks for doing the due diligence. 

  33. 33
    elduque Says:

    There is a new SSN update out. I will leave it to Z to figure out what it means.

  34. 34
    nrgyman Says:

    re 31:  Thanks for the update.  Was this a Mancos Shale well they drilled?  I thought most of the San Juan Basin gas wells were verticals, so is this different?  COP has been doing some limited work on the Mancos, but ECA has been doing even more work there, using horizontal wells targeting the Mancos.  Initial reads are that the Mancos has more liquids, so this is potentially a big upside for SJT if the Mancos proves to be economical.  I appreciate your DD efforts.

  35. 35
    RMD Says:

    mimster thanks

  36. 36
    elijahwc Says:

    FTK: Big Positive
     
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/flotek-industries-announces-repurchase-of-50-million-in-convertible-notes-intent-to-redeem-additional-notes-and-terminate-share-lending-agreement-2012-12-31
     

  37. 37
    Zorgnak Says:

    Deal #
    From Ezra Klein:
    1. Details on the deal: 39.6% tax rate for individual income over 400k/family income over $450k. AMT patched permanently.

    2. Dividends and cap gains taxes at 20% of the $400k/$450k levels. PEP at $250k. Pease at $300k.

    3. UI and business cuts extended through 2013. Stimulus cuts for 5 years. Medicare cuts stopped with offsets. Payroll cut expires.

    4. Sequester unclear. Prez wants to offset with taxes and spending cuts. R's only want to offset with spending cuts.

    Updates:
    5. Estate tax set at $10m exemption but 40% rate.

    6. Deal raises about $600b — and maybe a bit more — in taxes over 10 years. As always details can change, but that's where it is now. 

    Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-deal.html#sXhfgrmeD0OKPLlb.99 

  38. 38
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..turned back at first attempt at 1412.50 CLVN…Upside target is 1422.50 with 1416-18 as potential resistance..a break above 1418 that holds opens for further upside expansion
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/ES_IntraDay_3.png

  39. 39
    Stewart Says:

    re 36..how big an impact on eps or cash flow will that have for FTK?

  40. 40
    Dillon Says:

    One of my longtime believer stocks has finally gotten a break:
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1087581-more-good-news-for-sonde-resources-farmout-to-unlock-substantial-value?source=yahoo
    Anyone else on here kept up with this story over the years?

  41. 41
    Zorgnak Says:

    #28 thanks for pointing that out..bot some LNCO

  42. 42
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil working sideways with demand volume supportive of higher price levels
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/Crude_Composite.png

  43. 43
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas Futs consolidating above support and below long term acceptance..demand volume weak
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/NG_Composite.png

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

    President Obama in 6 minutes 
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/live

  45. 45
    tomdavis12 Says:

    41 Zorg: Back attcha. Thanks for all your help. Maybe we can play tennis sometime? (Z's back yard)  

  46. 46
    Zorgnak Says:

    LINE volume spike already today

  47. 47
    Zorgnak Says:

    #45..love to play tennis..gonna play today after the market closes..inside though..34degrees here

  48. 48
    elduque Says:

    Will be golfing at 1.00 Hawaiian time. Lovely place to live.
     
    Best to all in the New Year. Should be an excellent one, as most of the stocks we follow have to be amongst the cheapest in the universe of equities. 

  49. 49
    RMD Says:

    trading desk at an energy firm said seeing shorting of nat gas stocks.

  50. 50
    elduque Says:

    Not a great day to be a losing coach of a football team. Lots of firings. 

  51. 51
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Approaching upside target at 1421.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/31/ES_IntraDay_4.png

  52. 52
    Dillon Says:

    re 34  – engineer friend out in the San Juan area says there is an oil and a gas window in the Mancos. Gas window requires $6/mcf NG prices though from what they have seen. Oil window has seen IP's in the 300-600 bbl/day range. They don't know if these rates are entirely accurate because they are whats reported on C-104 forms and official production numbers will be known in the new year when they are reported to the state. Bayless, Hunt, Conoco, Encana, Energen, Red Willow, and Dugan are the guys that he knows that have drilled Mancos HZ's. The only other HZ work in the area is hz coal bed methane wells they have been drilling recently.

  53. 53
    RMD Says:

    watching BCEI to take a gain in '12, thinking there is a big year-end markup about to happen…fwiw.

  54. 54
    choices Says:

    Strange mkt for year end-seems like big feet are trying to paint the tape-T-bonds down hard, s & p up strong, gold up; free mkts are certainly grand;
    Happy Prosperous New Year to all-thanks, Z for your hard work, thanks zorg and all others for valuable comments throughout the year;
    -hopefully Congress will climb above 17% approval level (inquiring minds would like to know, who the hell are those 17%)

  55. 55
    RMD Says:

    53 opps bad guess.

  56. 56
    Alhambra Says:

    Thanks Z and everyone for a great year and all your contributions.  I really learn from all of you and appreciate the community here.  Happy New Year!!  Cheers!

  57. 57
    RB Says:

    Happy, Happy Everybody…be safe.  Enjoyed the year here with everyone…..

  58. 58
    apbd Says:

    Happy New Year to Z and family, BOP, and all of my friends.  May the New Year bring Health, Happiness, Blessings and a loss for ND to Bama.
    apbd 

  59. 59
    md Says:

    Happy New year to Z family and friends

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Thanks Much and Happy New Years to you all!  Enjoyed the little end of year mark up yesterday. 

    Lazily reading Politico after Senate passage and watching some dolphins play off Laguna Beach. This may or may not yield a post tomorrow so if not, please just post here and I'll check in from time to time.  Best, Z

  61. 61
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    ES Volume Only Macro
     Acceptance @ 1400 &1423.50 with low volume/volatility zone between.1428.5 Resistance.A break above establishes a higher range. Major 1389.50 support. 
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/1231_zps55d5c70b.png

  62. 62
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futures
    ES Volume Profile Friday closed above acceptance with low volume/high volatility zone below and 1428 resistance above.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/01/Es_Composite_2.png

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    House giving Senate bill the stiff arm. 

  64. 64
    milepost_43 Says:

    62…….stock or CO futures after 6pm ET tonight?

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    #64   I have Crude pushing above 92  and Nat Gas breaking support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/01/Crude_Composite.png
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/01/NG_Composite.png

  66. 66
    Zorgnak Says:

    Overseas mkts perking up with passage of house bill looking likely..

  67. 67
    Zorgnak Says:

    South Korean and Taiwan PMIs with nice gains tonight

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Oil up a little. No equity futures quote. Vote after 11:15 pm est tonight. 

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    House passes Senates bill without amendment, resetting the Cliff for 2 months. Beware the ides of March. 

  70. 70
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P 500 testing previous minor acceptance at 1446-48 in overnight trading. Weak market structure below with 1438,1428 as levels of interest on any test lower. Imo, bulls need to see commitment/acceptance, ie new buyers above 1428 for further expansion higher.  
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/122_zps012adbf9.png
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Es_Composite_2.png

  71. 71
    elduque Says:

    Spread between Brent and WTI continues to narrow, as WTI continues to rise.    19.1
     
    TYX (yield on 30 yr. treas) now about 3% at 3.05
     
     

  72. 72
    crysball Says:

    Interesting   Oil  Gas    2013 market  predictions from RBN:
    http://www.rbnenergy.com/top-ten-energy-prognostications-for-2013-year-of-the-snake

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    Zorg do you thing nat gas a buy here or do you want to wait to see the action. 

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Overnight setup….Trading at previous minor acceptance.1438O/N low,CLVN,1432CHVN,1428CLVN levels of interest below. 1448.25 O/N high
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/ES_IntraDay.png

  75. 75
    Zorgnak Says:

    #73…re NG …Off the chart I'd say yes, if you think it'll mean revert back to long and short term acceptance at 3.47. Not sure what to make of that mini-flash crash last night. Didn't expect the break of support here. Demand volume is weak and not supportive. 
    I'm short the UNG Jan 18 puts from a week or so ago. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/NG_Composite.png

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    The FTK and SSN news this week was as expected. Any news on any of our names this morning?

    eld – what's Robry at for Fridays number?

  77. 77
    elduque Says:

    thanks, I have crude meeting resistance at 93.5.

  78. 78
    elduque Says:

    Robry has not come out with it yet. will post when I see it.  
     
    For anybody still following TAT they came out with a new operational update. Found oil in SE Turkey. No debt and lots of acreage to play with. 

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    WTI is overdone here for a bit, fundamentals not supportive of the recent move. Don't think it matters much in the face of the equity rally but just think the move is easily collapsible. 

  80. 80
    elduque Says:

    NOAA has unseasonable warmer weather for the eastern part of the U.S. over the next 6-8 days. 

  81. 81
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futs back to upper acceptance from September at 93.50
    Demand volume positive on daily and weekly.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Crude_Composite.png

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Re 78 thanks. 

    On NG, the 2 week, 1 month and 3 month forecast are all warmer than normal. Tough sledding to erode the surplus / get higher prices near term. Offset is higher gas fired and industrial demand over the year…. But not enough to prompt a move to $4 ish land yet. 

    We get both sets of inventory numbers on Friday 

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    OAS waking up from a long base

  84. 84
    RB Says:

    re: 83…if you'd remained humble a minute longer, I was going to compliment you on your excellent timing of adding to that position

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Re 84 I would have but Mickey is still asleep as are the interns and ya know I get bored …  Noting the Bakkens in general have not really taken note of oil nice it moved above $89.  Like they just don't believe it or mre likely that the larger owners were on vacation last week and didn't want to add to positions pre cliff

  86. 86
    Zorgnak Says:

    Tom ..thanks again..  🙂

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Yield names doing well. I'd say the dividend and cap gains easily already discounted in the prices of the ones I hold. Too big a fall, time for the reflex rally. 

  88. 88
    elduque Says:

    Robry at -127

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Thanks eld. 

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    BCEI rally continues to new highs. Expect a secondary somewhere north of $30

    NOG, KOG, TPLM finding more fans.  KOG should comment on cuurent/exit rate soon.  Not sure if NOG gives mid month comment on last quarters volumes or waits for end of year pr

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    ISM out and above expectations. 

  92. 92
    Zorgnak Says:

    #87 ..yield names showing relative strength in the face of S&P profit taking atm

  93. 93
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs….PMI report sold at 1452.75….now looking for attempt to consolidate around the 1449.50 VPOC..IMO, main test to come at 1438..maybe not today's business
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/ES_IntraDay_3.png

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Moves in group largely muted for now given te broader market jump. NG names a drag on energy sentiment. And people don't believe oil. 

  95. 95
    choices Says:

    OT (maybe)-lest I get too giddy w/political action yesterday and resultant mkt action today, I'm keeping my eye on gold/silver, both up strong today (mining stks as well):
    As Z mentioned, beware of the ides of March;
    FWIW:  Attached link is a useful summary to tune into the action in PM mkts:
    http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/edition/washington-agreement-another-gold-rig-former-fed-and-treasury-official-admits
     

  96. 96
    Zorgnak Says:

    #94…Z..still looking for a positive reaction out of the next Nat Gas report?

  97. 97
    Zorgnak Says:

    #94  make that ISM

  98. 98
    brodway Says:

    Pretty cold in the Northeast today, not sure how long it lasts. Weather man says 63% of the US covered in snow. Snow, however, can knock down power lines and that may actually be detrimental to gas usage.

  99. 99
    Zorgnak Says:

    sheesh!  #93 that is…. should have been ISM….

  100. 100
    elijahwc Says:

    Thought I'd pass this along from LR native, Bond Guru and beer drinking bud, Vince Foster.  He's quite the intellect on matters of the curve.  
     
     
    "This week’s article draws upon the time-honored year end tradition of forecasting price targets for the following year.  Of course these price targets are useless because for investors it matters not where you end up but rather how you get there. 
     
    The 30YR bond yield is poised to close 2012 right where it closed 2011, at 2.90%.  Today the 30YR closed at 2.86% down 4bps.  I wrote this the previous weekend when the “long bond” closed at 2.93%.  Due to weather and the holiday’s the article is just now making it to print but hopefully it will provide some nice material for the weekend or a lazy new year’s day.  I never want to marry a position but I believe this roadmap can be used to guide you through the bond market for most of next year.  Either yields are going higher or lower but the odds of them staying at 2.90% for 3 straight years is very remote.
     
    The holiday season is mostly a time for giving and gluttony, but it can also be a time to reflect on where the markets have been and where they could be going. In joining with the time-honored tradition of providing prognostications for the New Year, I wanted to reflect on where the bond market has been and where it could be going.
     
    On Friday, the 30-year US Treasury bond (a.k.a., the long bond) yield closed at 2.93% and is poised to close the end of the 2012 right on top of where it closed the end of 2011 at 2.895%.  I can say with almost absolute certainty that while I don’t know where the long bond yield will close in 2013, I know it won’t be at 2.90%.
     
    Closing unchanged for consecutive years for the long bond — which is the most volatile US Treasury security — is an extremely rare occurrence over the past 30 years. In 2001, the long bond closed at a yield of 5.466% after closing 2000 at 5.457%. In 1992, the long bond closed at 7.396% after closing 1991 at 7.40%; in 1988, it closed 8.99% after closing 1987 at 8.978%.
     
    The obvious conclusion for why the long bond yield would be closing the year unchanged is that Federal Reserve policy has been actively holding interest rates artificially low via Operation Twist and quantitative easing. With last week’s FOMC announcement of what is basically an open-ended QE that will be targeting economic “thresholds,” I think the general consensus believes that they will be able to keep these thresholds at these levels. However, upon further examination, it's my belief that market price is saying something different.

    Read more: http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/fixed-income/articles/A-2013-Bond-Market-Prognostication253A-Why/12/28/2012/id/47000#ixzz2GNzMJ8Hh

     
    The fact is, from a technical perspective, the bond market has structure and is trending despite the trading range that has confined interest rates for the past 6 months.  If the Fed is controlling interest rates you would not think this is the case.  I have said before that I believe there is a big false sense of security in the market that the Fed can hold this think together.  If I am correct some of the price levels cited in this article will be tested and should be respected.
     
    Looking forward to a wild 2013 but in the meantime have a great balance of your holiday with friends and family.
     
    Thanks , Vince  
     
    Vince Foster

  101. 101
    brodway Says:

    re: 94
    RRC getting hit along with other gas names. Apparently gas is not a 2013 theme and shorts are all over these names.

  102. 102
    tomdavis12 Says:

    86 Zorg: How did you do with the little furry balls on Monday?

  103. 103
    elijahwc Says:

    MHR: Pressing the ' getting more Natty bet ' this a.m. with a Utica / Marcellus  JV.

  104. 104
    choices Says:

    #72-thanks, Crys-some fairly interesting prognostications, particularly for NG-recommend a read.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Re 96. Not from the weekly, maybe from the monthly on jan7

    re 101. It's all about the warm weather at the moment. Weather is the micro, supply and demand are the macro and the macro is moving in the right direction so a limitless early to write off the year I think. 

  106. 106
    elijahwc Says:

    #101 Group think by the 2 and 20 crowd following thought leader Jim Chanos on this one.  Probably lots of squeeze opps near tern.

  107. 107
    Zorgnak Says:

    #102….got stomped by my weekly nemesis(hitting buddy)…

  108. 108
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK…approaching the gate once again 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3.png

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Re NG, I'll have my 13 model thoughts out next week.  Sub $4 by the way should not be shocking, but not end of world…. 2012 was sub $3. I keep laughing as I see guys say $5 or $8 to get attention and when wrong hopefully be forgotten. What they don't get is you don't want rapid moves up in price as those cause shifts in the macro as opposed to evolution in the macro.  The RBN comment re demand is too vague to be taken for more than its worth.  But under $4 with only modest annual supply growth points to surplus destruction and deficit over the course of 2013. 

  110. 110
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX  at breakout point for the 600th time
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  111. 111
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM rejecting recent acceptance at 6 as too low…next level of interest at 6.65
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png

  112. 112
    RMD Says:

    crys 72 is a good read, thanks.  It tells me the midstream MLP's days of populatity are numbered and it's time to be paying attention to the short side of that investment.  How accurate is RBN?  Except for a few postings here I don't know much about them.

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG  change of character here. Trading very methodically between levels for a change. Reversing today's pop, but demand volume remains supportive.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_5.png

  114. 114
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS tentative break of volume base. Pulling back to breakout point as market consolidates. Expecting market to test lower.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_7.png

  115. 115
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG continues to trade back to long and short term value/acceptance, waiting for a catalyst
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_8

  116. 116
    Zorgnak Says:

    RRC  59.69 next support…rejecting acceptance at 63
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_9.png

  117. 117
    blackgold39 Says:

    Zorg – thanks for levels

  118. 118
    Zorgnak Says:

    SJT making HODs as the general market sags…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_10.png

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    SJT was overdone to the downside. Same WHZ. 

    Gassy names all pulling back including move leader COG. Still expecting a hold of recent lows for SWN and move higher on sideways NG move. Expecting slight up or down supply this month and record demand. SWN really waiting on Brown Dense project sanction. 

  120. 120
    brodway Says:

    re: 109
    taking a deep breath and remembering 2 steps forward 1 3/4 steps back 🙂

  121. 121
    Zorgnak Says:

    #117 ..my pleasure

  122. 122
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Breaking Intra-day..breaking IB low, LOD at 1445 a break there and…1438 is my downside target….
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/ES_IntraDay_4.png

  123. 123
    Gtinvest Says:

    Ref 119, happy new year to everyone,  
     Z-    If you look at trusts from a macro standpoint  it seems that most decline precipiteously right before and just after the election. Then additional tax selling and fiscal cliff tax fears caused massive overselling. Many trust shelter a portion of the "dividend: as return of capital . Very little downside left in group due to change in tax year and removal of the tax threat for 99% of the population. If you believe that oil at least will avg between 80 and 110 this year with pipeline reversals etc lower the differential between wti and Brent giving many trusts the opportunity to hedge the pops in crude pricing . Thereby insuring a continuations of high distributions.  Then why are they not an incredible buy at this point?   At least from the point of view that they should return to some rational value.  What am I missing?  PS and you get paid a lot to wait. 

  124. 124
    Robert Says:

    University of Texas – San Antonio compleated a study on the economic impact of Eagle Ford this past May showing that the landowners recieved $4.8 billion in lease and royalty payments in 2011.  The study projects that this will increase to $20.5 billion in 2021.
    Great story in Corpus Christi Caller times titled "The Wildcattter Corpus Christi's Greg Robertson, key member of Eagle Ford discovery, named 2012 newsmaker of the year.
    Article writes that Petrohawk funneled milions of dollars to Roberston to buy leases and in turn Robertson took 10% and Petrohawk took 90% of Eagle Ford.  Similar to NOG without going public.  Anywyt search for article written by Mark Collette if interested.

  125. 125
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG  NG market leader
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_11.png

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    GT – no argument from me re all that in the ones I own at least. 

  127. 127
    Zorgnak Says:

    Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez is in an induced coma being kept alive by life support following complications during cancer surgery
    RT Global Macro Zen

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Look for HK operations update next week

    OAS to give guidance very soon as well, good chance next week. 

  129. 129
    DaveH Says:

    GEVO seems to have attracted some investors with the announcement of a share buy back program.  +16.88% now.

  130. 130
    Zorgnak Says:

    MVO…lest we forget..bot a smidgen last week by mistake, forgot about a limit order …………
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_12.png

  131. 131
    blackgold39 Says:

    little birdies telling me the Brown Dense drilling at SWN was a very rough go when they started.  Pretty expensive/deep wells being drilled….

  132. 132
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Balanced profile today….may just hang here for a while….
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/ES_IntraDay_6.png

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    Wells 1 to 3 were, wells 4 to 6 went much better. 

  134. 134
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 130 congrats on buying MVO at a good price.   

  135. 135
    Zorgnak Says:

    #134  thanks….some of my best shots in tennis are mishits as well  🙂

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    MVO was the one we thought most interesting RT we don't own in last weeks yield piece. 

  137. 137
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs…note the lack of market structure below. If/when watch how 1438 area is treated…1428 is key support if 1438 gives way
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  138. 138
    DaveH Says:

    Re:  136 – Your description looked interesting to me so I bought some MVO.

  139. 139
    andy Says:

    seems like last vacation z took (maybe this summer) we had big rally. here's to z extending a little longer
    RMD 112  I  was thinking same thing re possible shorts.  let us know if u find any candidates. 

  140. 140
    Zorgnak Says:

    XOP  E&P showing positive demand volume on the daily and weekly time frames now. Good relative strength during today's market sag
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_13.png

  141. 141
    Zorgnak Says:

    EXXI volume spike..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_14.png

  142. 142
    irongate Says:

        EXXI – Dealreporter: Takeover speculation making rounds, bankers say
        Bermuda-based Energy XXI is now an &quot;excellent take-out candidate,&quot; partly because it owns a stake in a joint venture with McMoRan and Plains through which it plans to explore multiple ultradeep prospects, including Davy Jones, said Eliecer Palacios, energy sector specialist for the Maxim Group.<br />
        
        <br />

        
        This news service previously reported that Energy XXI, which mostly works in the shallow water of the Gulf of Mexico shelf, could be targeted as it was wrestling with executive succession issues. Now, with the heightened focus on the Gulf of Mexico, the industry sources said they see an Energy XXI deal as increasingly likely.<br />

       

  143. 143
    Zorgnak Says:

    WHZ…VPOC and buyers at 15.67 today
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock3.png

  144. 144
    Zorgnak Says:

    Fed POMO…Looking at the January schedule and there's not a single day that the FED is selling. First time I've seen that since I started tracking it. Liquidity fire hose choker wide open…

  145. 145
    RMD Says:

    139 AMJ and AMLP are the liquid 1st choices.  Picking individual names will take some work.

  146. 146
    RMD Says:

    MMR fairness opinion worth a look for EXXI holders:
    http://edgar.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64279/000119312512518478/d457324dsc13e3.htm

  147. 147
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 futs…Volume shifting towards the bulls now for the rest of the day..VPOC shift
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/ES_IntraDay_7.png

  148. 148
    Zorgnak Says:

    UPL volume spike today, down  4.41% so far

  149. 149
    tomdavis12 Says:

    146 – RMD  Thanks for posting. I scanned thru and did not see anything significant for EXXI holders. Was there something you thought was important?

  150. 150
    tomdavis12 Says:

    EPL new 12 month high. UPL new low.

  151. 151
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil  support   91.25, 89.25
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Crude_Composite_2.png
    Nat Gas 3.36 Resistance, 3.47 acceptance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/NG_Composite_2.png

  152. 152
    RMD Says:

    149I  I just started reading; friend said there's a new reserve est.  for an onshore well in there,(but I'm just passing that along).

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    Iron gate, thanks much 

    RMd – thanks, S4 filed yet?

    Movie quote watch "but when Pirates of the Carribbean breaks down, the pirates don't eat everyone". 10 more minutes in this this line and I'll find out for sure. 

  154. 154
    Zorgnak Says:

    XCO volume spike over 21 day average
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_15.png

  155. 155
    Zorgnak Says:

    COG on volume spike over 21 day average
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_15.png

  156. 156
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM volume spike today
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_16.png

  157. 157
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS breakout expanding after early AM retest. Good volume
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_17.png

  158. 158
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #153 — Jurassic Park…

  159. 159
    Justin Says:

    SSN
    Z – did you offer your interpretation of the SSN p.r. in a previous post?

  160. 160
    RMD Says:

    Z see link in 146.

  161. 161
    Zorgnak Says:

    CLNE and WPRT with volume spikes today

  162. 162
    Zorgnak Says:

    BTU  High volume reversal after opening big this morning..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/02/Stock_Weekly_3_18.png

  163. 163
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Joe Kunkle ‏@OptionsHawk
    Options Market Theme Takeaway from Today – Institutions buying calls in the down Natural Gas indiv. names for Mar. 2013

  164. 164
    Zorgnak Says:

    Coal
    BTU and CNX both volume spike down days

  165. 165
    RB Says:

    Z if your question to RMD is whether or not an S4 related to the Royalty Trust has been filed by MMR, the answer is no….looking at MMR filings on my Bloomerg right now….FCX has issued one in connection with the shares they are offering in the PLains transaction but that is all I see…..

  166. 166
    Gtinvest Says:

    ref 161, new year interest and Tax bill contained and extension of .50 tax credit for cng for transportation and 30g for station building. retroactive to beginning of 2012 when it expired , very good for clne  in particular. Wprt hinges on roll out of isx 12 g in march .
    both  articles here:http://www.fleetsandfuels.com/

  167. 167
    Zorgnak Says:

    #166..thanks

  168. 168
    Gtinvest Says:

    your welcome zorg !!

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Lee Cooperman confessed to the public today that his Omega Advisors has been buying FCX.  He believes that JB still posseses all his marbles and can still play a pretty mean game.

  170. 170
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Jason Goepfert ‏rt
    This will be only the 2nd time in history that $VIX closed down >15% two days in a row (10/29/87).

  171. 171
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  STSI… hoping for the (overdue) JohnsHopkins thyroiditis update tomorrow.  Caveat being that Star can pull defeat from the jaws of victory when it comes to writing their press releases.  So, we shall just have to wait and see what the morrow brings.

  172. 172
    Zorgnak Says:

    SWN volume spike today

  173. 173
    Zorgnak Says:

    SU volume spike

  174. 174
    Zorgnak Says:

    ACI
    another coal name down big and volume spike

  175. 175
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #170 — YIKES!!  And along those lines… took my PXD and remaining PXP off the table today.  Still way overloaded on energy.  But want to keep some more dry powder around.

  176. 176
    Zorgnak Says:

    MLPs very strong to open year..AMZ +3.8% with broader energy just up 2.3%

  177. 177
    Justin Says:

    OT
    BOP – notice PAYD today? I don't see any PR's.

  178. 178
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    OT:  PAYD was awared all the child patents they applied for at the USPTO.  Thinking they get "official" notification (via mail) on Jan 8th.  At some point after that, the new CEO and his team of contingency Legal Eagles should reveal a game plan for making cash money off the patent portfolio. 
     
    Whether it plays out exactly this way or not, we will have to wait and see.  But it is true that PAYD got their patents approved.  And that should start the ball (re)rolling.

  179. 179
    elijahwc Says:

    STSI more on tomorrow:
     
    From briefing.com
     
    "Star Scientific: Expecting release of the Johns Hopkins Third Party CRO
    results using Star Scientific’s Anatabloc Technology (2.86 +0.18)

    Gilford Securities notes that within the next few days or couple of weeks at
    most, they expect release of the Johns Hopkins Third Party CRO results testing
    humans for its Thyroid treatment using Star Scientific's Anatabloc Technology.
    This will be the most important event in Star's history because:
    o It will be the first completion of tests by a Third Party CRO judging Star's
      technology on human beings.
    o If Star's Anatabloc Technology can treat or cure one autoimmune disease,
      then why not other autoimmune diseases such as Diabetes, Rosacea,
      Alzheimer's and even Ageing
    o Of greatest significance, if the Thyroid results are positive, this will be
      the first time an autoimmune disease has been put into remission"

  180. 180
    nrgyman Says:

    Seaway pipeline to be shutdown temporarily to finish expansion project.  Expanded full flow due by end of next week.
     
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/5188521-seaway-pipeline-expansion-nearing-completion

  181. 181
    nrgyman Says:

    The tax bill just passed includes tax credits for alternative fuel use in vehicles, including natgas and propane.  This should help CLNE and WPRT, explaining some of their big bounce in the last two days of trading.  Eventually this should help natgas producers as well, but the mild winter is causing problems for them at the moment.
     
    http://www.fleetsandfuels.com/fuels/cng/2013/01/tax-relief-and-then-some/

  182. 182
    ram Says:

    BOP, are bonds/credit market saying all clear for business still?

  183. 183
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 1/3 9:00 AM  ES 1455.50. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Mkt in price discovery above the 1446 CHVN with diminishing overhead supply. Current trading above all Europe/Cliff/Election supply. Little market structure above or below 1446. Internals are all supportive. Breadth is overbought.  92% of all SP 500 stocks >10 day MA. 84% > 20MA, 80% > 50 MA. VIX collapse, off 30% in two days. 1458 O/N high. Large volume gaps on either side of the 1446 CHVN.
     
    Thoughts ….Tail risk in either direction. Expecting mkt to attempt to balance around the 1446 CHVN.  If not, a break of 1438 suggests a test lower to 1428.  A break of O/N high 1458 has little market structure to resist further upside surge to 1468 and higher. A break below O/N VPOC  1452.25 likely to target 1446. A break below 1444 likely to target a 1438 test.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price

    1468       CLVN
    1458       Wed & O/N high/Little mkt structure to 1468
    1452.25  O/N VPOC
    1446.75 CHVN/Confluence of Tues and Wednesday VPOC
    1444.50 Minor CLVN/Weds Low 1444/PriceVolume Gap to 1426
    1438   CLVN
    1428  CLVN
    1422.50  CHVN/Key volume pivot
    1412       CLVN/Lower end of low volume zone
    1406    Minor CHVN/MiniCHVN
    1400.25 CHVN/Major Price Magnet
    1389.25  CLVN/Key CLVN
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Es_Composite_2.png

  184. 184
    elduque Says:

    Brent/WTi at 19.3
     
    TYX at 3.05
     
    BDI at 700
     
    GDP out with guidance for 2013. They were unable to repair casing in the Denkman Well in the TMS.

  185. 185
    elduque Says:

     

    The Company was unable to repair the parted casing connection in the Denkmann 33H-1 (75% WI) and is currently working on plans to sidetrack the well at a later date.  The Company has drilled its Crosby 12H-1 (50% WI) and is scheduled to commence fracking operations in January.  The Crosby 12H-1 is an approximate 7,000 foot lateral with 23 planned frac stages.  The Company has participated in the drilling of two non-operated wells, the Ash 31H-1 (12% WI) and Ash 31H-2 (12% WI), which are also expected to be fracked during January.  The Ash 31H-1 is a 6,500 foot lateral and the Ash 31H-2 is currently drilling with a planned 7,000 foot lateral.  Current plans for 2013 include participating as a non-operator in 4 – 6 gross (1.0 – 1.25 net) wells and drilling 2 – 4 gross (1.0 – 2.75 net) operated wells, with the potential to accelerate in the second half of the year.
    Goodrich's Chief Executive Officer, Walter G. "Gil" Goodrich stated, "We are pleased to announce our board approved capital expenditure budget and preliminary plans for 2013.  The budget and planning is tailored to achieve a number of key objectives, including: (a) the continuation of our transition to a more balanced production and reserve mix between crude oil and natural gas; (b), maintain ample liquidity; (c), continue a high level of activity in the Eagle Ford Shale trend; (d), initiate development of the Pearsall Shale; and (e) further develop and define the economic value of our position in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale trend.
    Our preliminary plans will allow us to achieve robust growth in oil production volumes over 2012, which will equate to approximately two-thirds of our projected revenue in 2013.  The crude oil hedges we recently added for 2013 provide us price protection on approximately seventy percent of estimated crude oil production.  Despite being currently unhedged on natural gas volumes, the high percentage of 2013 revenue and cash flow expected to be generated from crude oil production, as well as our crude oil hedges, provides solid overall cash flow protection.  Based on our current production and commodity price forecasts, we anticipate approximately seventy percent of our capital expenditure budget will be funded with cash flow from operations.  This high level of cash flow to capex coverage should in turn allow us to maintain ample liquidity during 2013 as we execute a number of strategic corporate objectives.
    We exited 2012 with $95 million outstanding under our senior credit facility, down from$99 million outstanding at the end of the third quarter providing us with liquidity of approximately $115 million as we enter 2013.  Assuming no changes in our bank group's commodity price assumptions, our continued crude oil production growth should provide incremental improvement in the amount of our borrowing base during 2013.
    While we are certainly disappointed that we were not able to repair the parted casing on the Denkmann 33H-1 in the TMS, we are currently working on plans to sidetrack around the obstruction and re-drill the lateral portion of the well.  In addition, we are pleased with the drilling of the lateral in the Crosby 12H-1 well, have set and cemented production casing, and are anticipating completion results in the coming weeks in addition to our two non-operated Ash wells.  We also expect a number of additional completions and data points in the next couple of months which we believe will incrementally assist in demonstrating the economic viability of this emerging oil play."

  186. 186
    Zorgnak Says:

    Gas flaring in North Dakota
    http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Environment/Pix/columnists/2013/1/3/1357215618074/Satellite-view-of-US-at-n-006.jpg

  187. 187
    ram Says:

    Re 186 Hopefully night lights at all the platforms and the gas is being sold.

  188. 188
    tomdavis12 Says:

    NOG added new guy – Brendon R Elliott. Investor relations guy.

  189. 189
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil Futs trading in balance above support at 95.25
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Crude_Composite.png

  190. 190
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas continues to struggle below resistance/major supply
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/NG_Composite.png

  191. 191
    Zorgnak Says:

    BTU…finding trend support after yesterdays volume spike down day
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3.png

  192. 192
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas stocks trading an iniside day though above support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  193. 193
    nrgyman Says:

    WPRT:  Scored a double top breakout today in the P&F chart.  See 181 above as a possible reason why.  CLNE has been strong as well.

  194. 194
    Zorgnak Says:

    Market rumor: Hugo Chavez might have passed away

  195. 195
    zman Says:

    187 all of our Bakken names have been steadily adding gathering, gas is still flared but less than in past, it's rich so you'll see realizations from $5 to $7 for it now..in the Bakken players update you can see the % of oil inch lower for most names over time. 

    Re GDP – that was pitched early on as more routine.  Second well said to be landed to avoid sloughing troubles of the first. Good luck, not in at present.  

     

    Re NOG. Interesting add, will talk to next week 

    NG still sloppy on the forecast. Gassy names less uniformly red

    Good ADP, good auto sales, market resting after yesterday's run, and front of Payrolls tomorrow   We get both and natural gas inventory reports tomorrow and NG supply/demand on Monday. 

    OII trying to make a move. 

  196. 196
    nrgyman Says:

    Natgas stocks moving up today, even with the continuing slide in natgas prices.  Natgas currently around 3.185 on the near futures contract.

  197. 197
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 tight 4 pt range..high odds break one way or another….lower tgt at 1444-1446…upside break has room to run to 1458 and beyond
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/ES_IntraDay_2.png

  198. 198
    zman Says:

    Re 196 dead at bounce in my view, lots of data there next few days. 

  199. 199
    nrgyman Says:

    10:19 AM, Jan 03.  After meeting with Halliburton's (HAL +0.8%) senior management, RBC Capital says the company expects its North American margins to rise throughout 2013. The firm expects HAL's international business to grow significantly this year, and it maintains an Outperform rating on the stock.  (from Alpha)
     
    Has NAM service reached a bottom or is this just HAL improving margins from low levels?

  200. 200
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 194 Z, what do you think the reaction of oil and oil stocks would be if Hugo Chavez has passed away?

  201. 201
    zman Says:

    RMD – thanks for the MMR Evercore schedule, this page interesting:

    http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/64279/000119312512518478/d457324dex99c4.htm

    Slides 3, 10-12

    3 kind of smelly termination clause but would doubt they get that done.

    Growth profile looks a little like mine for the test.

    The trust now called Gulf Coast Ultra Deep RT

    Noted onshore wells thought to half cost of offshore, significant savings on both drill and complete. 

    Slide 14 perhaps best, Ryder Scott putting a lot on several undrilled prospects and also on the onshore ones currently drilling. Really like that its Ryder doing the engineering guess 

  202. 202
    zman Says:

    Re 199 I don't expect them to have bottomed yet, see other non HAL guy comments on NAM from BAS, SLB, BHI. Problem of lower activity persists. E&Ps looking for better pricing. Don't see calendar as a solve for that. Will do some channel checks when I get back. HAL can be a tricky user of language and yes margins have already fallen so look for guys touting a margin recovery to talk in YOY and not quarterly sequential s. 

  203. 203
    zman Says:

    Re Chavez. More impact years ago, less now. Will be tough on Cuba and other Carrib if subsidies and cheap loans end. But not sure what happens after him there. Guess reaction would be a little near term softness but not a lot unless they really do an about face and you see fresh development bidding announcements. 

  204. 204
    nrgyman Says:

    Re 202:  Thanks Z.

  205. 205
    zman Says:

    WHZ= yield cat bounce

  206. 206
    zman Says:

    No problem, typing with one finger on iPad or would be more verbose

  207. 207
    zman Says:

    Nrgy- re Service, I should add that there seems to a lot of complacency about margin worry at the moment in the stocks. See HAL, KEG, BAS! CJES charts all in recovery mode. 

  208. 208
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P/Nat Gas perky …16.25 level of interest for gas stocks
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_6.png

  209. 209
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG..Major level of interest at 17.72
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_7.png

  210. 210
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK  Still at the gate….At major long term acceptance…diminishing supply above
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_8.png

  211. 211
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs..pushing O/N high….blow off above?
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/ES_IntraDay_5.png

  212. 212
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ram #182 — thank you for asking.  Credit Markets are signalling Open for Business and continue to be supportive of equity-enhancing events (eg M&A… ref:  FCX/MMR/PXP).  For a thoughtful (and usually accurate) accessment, here is XACS's first strategy piece of 2013
     
    https://s3.amazonaws.com/msh-research/full/01.03.13+Credit+Markets+Continue+to+Heal+SPX+to+Reach+1580.pdf

  213. 213
    Zorgnak Says:

    XCO  coming off support and big stretch from acceptance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_9.png

  214. 214
    zman Says:

    SDCJF – didn't see this mentioned, 

    http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/2012/01-02-2013%20-%20Acquisition%20Builds%20Position%20in%20Wattenberg%20Field.pdf

    bread and butter acquision in the Wattenberg, 

    added new bank facility too:

    http://www.sundanceenergy.com.au/2012/01-02-1013%20-%20U$300%20Million%20Credit%20Facility%20-%20Wells%20Fargo.pdf

  215. 215
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Leon Cooperman:  1
     
    Irritated and Petulant BlackRock Analyst:  0
     
    http://beta.fool.com/insidermonkey/2013/01/03/billionaire-leon-cooperman-thinks-freeport-mcmoran/20450/?ticker=PXP&source=eogyholnk0000001

  216. 216
    zman Says:

    EOG trying to push out to a4 year high. Among other things they are my way to play the TMS from a lower risk angle. 

  217. 217
    nrgyman Says:

    RIG settles with DOJ

  218. 218
    Zorgnak Says:

    #217 re RIG volume spike before mid day on news

  219. 219
    Zorgnak Says:

    Solar stocks blasting off….TSL volume spike before mid day

  220. 220
    ram Says:

    Thank you BOP.

  221. 221
    nrgyman Says:

    Solar stocks soaring today.  SPWR up 32%, FSLR up 7.75%.  Tax deal also helping them.

  222. 222
    zman Says:

    Thanks, I'll stick with OII for my deep water participation, less risk, fewer moving pieces, probably less potential near term but thatsOK by me. 

  223. 223
    choices Says:

    FWIW:  somewhat dated take on projected weather's effect on some commods-I was not aware of the ETFs mentioned, looked at NAGS.
    It is NG fund which attempts to reduce contango by holding four NG contracts-volume on NAGS is zippo.  Teucrium Trading is sponsor-unknown to me.
    http://www.cumber.com/content/special/jimroemer.pdf&nbsp;

  224. 224
    nrgyman Says:

    Seems like the hidden goodies in the tax deal for alternative energy are coming to light with heavy funds flow into all related names.  

  225. 225
    nrgyman Says:

    Jeff Gundlach on CNBC.  Bullish on risk debt, high-yield junk bonds, etc.  Should help equities.  Likes Japan and China stock markets.  

  226. 226
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM following through on yesterdays volume spike higher…6.65 resistance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_10.png

  227. 227
    zman Says:

    Interesting summary of the tax changes:

    http://tax.cchgroup.com/downloads/files/pdfs/legislation/ATPR.pdf

  228. 228
    Zorgnak Says:

    EXXI  Pecking away at resistance (33)
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_11.png

  229. 229
    Zorgnak Says:

    REXX
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_12.png

  230. 230
    Zorgnak Says:

    SJT
    14.25 Resistance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_13.png

  231. 231
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG  Stuck in congestion below 9.40.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_14.png

  232. 232
    nrgyman Says:

    $VIX:  The so-called 'fear' measure scored a spread triple bottom breakdown yesterday in the P&F charts.  It is down 36.84% this week to 14.35, which is huge.  August 2012 lows were 13.30.  Lots of 'fear' exiting the market right now.  Don't know how low it goes but the next budget battle in March should see it rise again.  Tops in the market usually follow bottoms in the $VIX, even if it is just an intermediate or short-term issue.  Crude and E&P stocks may be vulnerable when the $VIX turns.  Worth keeping an eye on.  Stocks still in bull mode ATM.  Strength in small and mid-cap issues.  Also emerging markets.  Both of these are correlated positively with Z's oil-based E&P names.  Natgas follows its own tune due to its domestically contained market.

  233. 233
    1520sbroad Says:

    thanks for posting 227 – I have been looking for something like that with a good non political summary…

  234. 234
    nrgyman Says:

    12:06 PM, Jan 03.  Imperial Oil (IMO) says its Kearl oil sands project in northern Alberta could start commercial production in the coming weeks after a previous target was delayed from the end of December. The 110K bbl/day bitumen development has been undergoing commissioning operations during the past several weeks in preparation for production.  (from Alpha)
     
    More significant NAM oil production coming online soon.  Burgeoning oil sands production volumes will mostly flow to mid-continent and Gulf coast refiners, replacing OPEC crude imports.  Could add to mid-continent oil glut, at least temporarily.  The XL pipeline needs to get approved soon.  Meanwhile, the railroad stocks are breaking out–thanks in no small part to oil shipments.  

  235. 235
    Zorgnak Says:

    As mentioned a couple days ago, the Fed is very active this month without a single day of draining liquidity. First time I've seen it. Here's the graph I use to show when POMO has reached levels that support buying pullbacks in the S&P 500 with high odd win/loss ratio and profit factor. That level is 3 or greater, shown on the graph. 
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/JanPOMO_zps2403d217.png

  236. 236
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs..Double distibution day, looking for test back to mid point….FOMC minutes still on tap
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/ES_IntraDay_6.png

  237. 237
    DaveH Says:

    MVO +5.03% today.   The price gain plus the 12.5% yield at the price I paid for the shares a couple of weeks ago add up to a nice investment.  Thanks Z for finding that one.

  238. 238
    zman Says:

    Re 234. Note rails also got some tax help in 227. I didn't see much for solar but have not seen the bill itself. Did more wind got helped while marginal wells took a hit but otherwise oil cos fared really well vs some dire tax expectations.  Funny that movie maker tax benefits, someone else "who's doing pretty well" on the words of the president, were never on the table. Even NASCAR got a little tax help. 

  239. 239
    nrgyman Says:

    FED notes hitting market.  More members want tightening during 2013.  Big change in Fed member sentiment.

  240. 240
    zman Says:

    Boehner reelected sspeaker 

    Oil and natural gas flat on day

    Inventories and payrolls ttomorrow 

    Re MVO , caught up in the yield cat bounce

    SJT too and well above level when it announced it last div. I have only taken two pieces there, one at 13.90ish and the second at 12.90. May add another next week upon fresh supply data. Fresh model later next week too. On te question of what kind of horizontal well that was I doubt the trustee knows. They'd have to ask COP most likely. Higher capex should 1) abate as that sounds somewhat one time ish or at least not normal. And2) result in higher than otherwise would have happened production. 

    MVO – modl piece there next week, don't own it yet, may not, may in time

    NG sup/dem slide shows next Tuesday along with model price thoughts for 2013. As always, I could care less about throwing out a number that gets headlines, I'd rather just take my bet shot at it and see he that differs from or s the same Street and company expectations. 

  241. 241
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 239:  Fed notes causing dollar rally vs Euro,  gold drop.  Oil dropping as well.  This could just be temporary because any tightening will still be tied to significant economic progress.

  242. 242
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs.. Risk both ways here…Expecting we test back to 1446 area…with  1444 key level. Note lack of market structure below.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Es_Composite_2_3.png

  243. 243
    Zorgnak Says:

    May not be today's business.

  244. 244
    zman Says:

    Re 241 – market likely looking for a reason to take a few profits, especially for those who a very short term focused .  Fed also just tied rate increases to unemployment, what, 3 weeks back?  Silly market. Hard to,believe dollar came through that tax package with no spending cuts anywhere near as well as it did. 

  245. 245
    nrgyman Says:

    SPWR up 45%.  Buffet deal for CA utility scale solar power plant and analyst upgrade.  Also benefits from tax deal.  At the margin, this is competition for coal and natgas–though in CA probably not so much.  Once a solar plant is built it can easily become the low-cost power source in competitive auction power markets as their variable costs are almost zero.  Only have to recover cap ex, which is reduced due to gov't subsidies.  
     
    http://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2013/01/03/midamerican-solar-buys-huge-solar.html?ana=yfcpc

  246. 246
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 244:  The budget deficit battle ahead could be a dogfight.  Obama campaigned on a fair and balanced resolution.  The tax deal was 99%+ revenue increases vs spending cuts.  Hardly balanced, so many expected that the deficit battle ahead would be mostly spending cuts.  But Obama announced that those who think that way are going to be disappointed.  He wants balanced approach to the remaining deficit issues, despite the lopsided approach to the tax issues.  So how the tax revenues will be raised is significant.  I'm looking for the president to try to balance spending cuts with closing deductions that mainly benefit the prosperous.  Unfortunately, that could mean things like oil depletion, interest expenses, perhaps even IDCs.  I hope it doesn't get to that, but the proclivity of the president is in that direction.  This fight could get nasty and we still have significant uncertainty about what will be enacted.  The markets, sooner or later, will begin to discount this.  

  247. 247
    elijahwc Says:

    Bloomberg on rail cars re:oil
     
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-03/buffett-like-icahn-reaping-tank-car-boom-from-shale-oil.html?source=email_rt_mc_body

  248. 248
    PackMan Says:

    Hi Z, everyone. Happy New Year.
     
    A few things on my mind:
     
    1. Departing EPA head Lisa Jackson apparently claiming Obama intends to approve Keystone Pipeline around March/April.  Q. Implications for our names here and commodity price ?
     
    2.  XCO selloff last couple of weeks pretty harsh, continued despite market Mega Ramp on Mon / Wed.  Any ideas as to why (other than more sellers than buyers) ?
     
    3.  Zorg, was looking at your NOG chart above. (113?).  Possible inverse H&S forming ?
     

  249. 249
    Justin Says:

    246
     
    Tough to argue otherwise…Thanks for thoughts.

  250. 250
    Zorgnak Says:

    #248 It does have that look to it…..Above 17.72 or so would be lovely
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/03/Stock_Weekly_3_15.png

  251. 251
    Zorgnak Says:

    Energy names with volume spikes today..
    HAL RDC RIG XCO FST SU(second consecutive day) 
    Solar stocks big volume across the board  LDK YGE CSIQ TSL JASO FSLR

  252. 252
    Zorgnak Says:

    Add CLNE and WPRT

  253. 253
    zman Says:

    Just back to a device with power so sorry for the delay, spent way too much time stranded on the 405 today

    re 248 Keystone a) believe it when it happens, b) modest positive, c) hard to believe a pipeline is this hard to get built. There are thousands of them, why one more is so much trouble is just silly d) back to modest positive, anything that gets crude further from Cushing is good but it could swamp GC area and thus just move the glut a bit further down the road. The positive comes from taking it to a point to refine and then export and later, when domestic demand inches back to be out of the center of the country.  As long as Bakken crude gets out the basin ok and then from Cushing to either the GC or to the east that's going to be a plus for it. Likely takes the LLS and HLS crudes lower, away global basket/Brent and towards WTI , pprobably not all the way but in between. Not a big knock given the premium now but impacts the EXXI's and EPL's of the Gulf and the EFS crude producers who get LLS. I think it will be pretty gradual. 

    Re XCO. Weakness due to NG which is weather and high debt level. Leverage nice when NG is rising as it makes shorts squirm. As NG pulled back however they will start spinning stories of financial gloom again. I'll have all my NG thoughts for this year in next Tuesdays post but I'm not selling. The growth rate in supply is diminishing and the demand for gas has more than kept pace from a structural standpoint. 

    Re 246 hence my beware the ides comment the other day. Lot of leverage for the president though with taxes squared first, doubtful he made promises on spending cuts as a future quid pro quo so that leaves debt ceiling arm twisting. I really doubt IDCs get hit as they have been around forever and capex would slide as would the oil growth story and even he knows that. And it's not that much money. Better to cut spending and reconfigure CPI than to actually do things that cause inflation. 

  254. 254
    Justin Says:

    SSN
    z- did u have a previous post on SSN's recent update? I fished a bit but egg nog blurred my vision the past few weeks.

  255. 255
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude Oil still holding in the upper range in the face of strong dollar surge
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Crude_Composite.png

  256. 256
    zman Says:

    Bcei – very strong guidance for 2013, good Codell 30 day rate, improving Niobrara longer term rates, accelerating the program in Wattenberg from 2 to 4 rigs

  257. 257
    Zorgnak Says:

    Nat Gas remains below considerable supply with major acceptance higher at 3.47
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/NG_Composite.png

  258. 258
    zman Says:

    SSN – just that it was as expected, a non event really, nothing until mid Spring on the drilling front there. 

  259. 259
    zman Says:

    Payrolls slightly below expectations and unemployment up a tenth. We are still a long way away from Fed tightening despite the minutes from yesterday. 

  260. 260
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest 1/4 9:00 AM  ES 1456.50. Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Mkt trading above flat CHVN at 1446-49. Little overhead supply. 1444.50 Key short term CLVN with wide price/volume gap to 1428. Demand volume supportive/Overbought short term. Breadth overbought. Sector rotations supportive. POMO supportive. $USD bouncing, extended. Euro extended and at important 1.30 suppor t. Confluence above at 1457.50(Thurs LVN, O/N high, Wed HOD,Jobs reaction high), Below at 1444.50(CLVN
     
    Thoughts ….Mkt  attempting to consolidate above 1446-49 CHVN. Watch 1444.50 as key short term test in support of that effort. Watch 1457.50(Thurs LVN, O/N high, Wed HOD,Jobs reaction high) for further expansion attempts.
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1458       Wed & O/N high, Thurs LVN
    1446.75 CHVN/Confluence of Tues and Wednesday VPOC
    1444.50 Minor CLVN/Weds Low 1444/PriceVolume Gap to 1426
    1438   CLVN
    1428  CLVN
    1422.50  CHVN/Key volume pivot
    1412       CLVN/Lower end of low volume zone
    1406    Minor CHVN/MiniCHVN
    1400.25 CHVN/Major Price Magnet
    1389.25  CLVN/Key CLVN
    S&P Futs
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Es_Composite_2.png
    $USD
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/DX.png

  261. 261
    Zorgnak Says:

    #259…January Fed POMO sched shows nothing but pedal to the metal…maybe in preparation for the fiscal follies.

  262. 262
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD pop coming off now

  263. 263
    john11 Says:

    BCEI target raised to $34 from $28 by Wunderlich.  They liked the revised guidance.

  264. 264
    choices Says:

    #259-Fed tightening-some of the gold gurus (FWIW) tend to believe that the Fed cannot tighten for the foreseeable future-it would blow up the bond mkt, severely damage "recovery"-of course, they have a biased or entrenched opinion.

  265. 265
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 259:  Leesman on CNBC drew a distinction between the Fed raising interest rates and eliminating QE (Fed buying of assets).  He said the Fed had nothing to say about leaving interest rates unchanged until unemployment reaches about 6.5%, so that 'policy' remains as the majority perspective.  What changed is that Fed members showed increasing concern about how long to maintain their asset buying programs (Twist and QE).  More members now want to end that by the end of this year, given what they expect from the economy.  Leesman pointed out that eliminating Twist and QE does not mean tightening or interest rate increases, just less forceful stimulation.  Interest rates would still remain low and accommodative.  So, yes, it would appear we are still a long way from Fed tightening, even if the asset buying and Twist programs stop later this year.  The Fed has not indicated the triggers or targets for eliminating their asset buying or Twist programs, something that Leesman said needs to be learned from them.  The minutes indicated that some members are starting to get uncomfortable now about those programs and want them reduced/eliminated by year end.  Seems like they expect a pick-up in the economy and, therefore, no need for further aggressive stimulation.  If they are right, that would be bullish.  It may be hard to see it in Q1 data though.

  266. 266
    john11 Says:

    BCEI also featured as Investors' Business Daily's New America play today.

  267. 267
    ram Says:

    Thanks John11.  I wonder if "New America play" means a well run E&P in general that people should focus investing in.

  268. 268
    nrgyman Says:

    BCEI:  should we be expecting an equity offering soon?

  269. 269
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken rockn….KOG coming up on 9.40….a sticking point lately
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3.png

  270. 270
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..taking out O/N high…Breadth expanding
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/ES_IntraDay_4.png

  271. 271
    Zorgnak Says:

    RRC 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  272. 272
    crysball Says:

    Gas Exports  to  Mexicco  are  ROCKING!!
    http://www.rbnenergy.com/oh-rio-rio-gas-across-the-rio-grand-us-natural-gas-exports-to-mexico
    Incidentally,  am  not  qualified  to  comment  on  RBN, as  have never done  business  with  them.   Do  like  their    writing,  and  find   they  are  accurate andtypically  have  lots  of  detailed  substantiation to  support  thier  point.
    Z or others  are  far  more  qualified   to  comment  about them.

  273. 273
    elduque Says:

    BDI up a little to 706
     
    Brent/WTI continues to narrow 18.7
     
    TYX (30 yr treasury) climbing in yield to 3.14%

  274. 274
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…building acceptance above the 1449-46 CHVN. 
    Today's VPOC and Thurs VPOC overlapping
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  275. 275
    zman Says:

    Re BCeI. Secondary, likely , need to do some math, getting on a plane. 

  276. 276
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG Futs…extending short covering with 3.29 as first resistance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/NG_Composite_2.png

  277. 277
    choices Says:

    NOV started at outperform by Macquarie;
    CLR started at Buy by Deutche Bank;
    no price tgts noted.

  278. 278
    DaveH Says:

    MVO +4.25% 🙂

  279. 279
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png

  280. 280
    Zorgnak Says:

    # 278  MVO  🙂

  281. 281
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_4.png

  282. 282
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CLR DB PT = $94.00

  283. 283
    Zorgnak Says:

    Natural Gas Stockpiles Down 135 bcf Versus an Estimated 130 bcf Drop

  284. 284
    zman Says:

    NG -135, est was -130

  285. 285
    Gtinvest Says:

    ng -135 ,  East -84 bcf, west -15, producing -36.  in a holiday shortened week. interesting.

  286. 286
    zman Says:

    Oil at top of hour

  287. 287
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…tight congestion/overlapping VPOC but profit taking beginning to build with profile becoming a bit top heavy. 
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/ES_IntraDay_5.png

  288. 288
    zman Says:

    Gt, yeah, not bad at all, API showed huge draw on crude last night related to the end of the year. EIA probably shows large but that gets easily discounted .  Cushing stocks to grow again. I'll be on way to Vegas at that point but will check in before playing there for a bit   

    BCEI – don't have models where I can get to them, probably not an urgently timed secondary but I would not blame them if they popped one off here and I think it would be welcomed with open arms by the Street. Guidance is better than expected but that's largely due to the program acceleration in the Wattenberg. The basic point is the Wattenberg is slowly improving on long IPs and the Codell is looking good and there are more zones after that.  We still have Catslyst in the form of Nio c and long Nio in the not too distant future,  stewardess giving me the eye, back in about an hour. 

  289. 289
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG..sorry for the repeat but KOG at an interesting spot..something to watch
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_5.png

  290. 290
    Zorgnak Says:

    Oil Futs.trading in balance waiting.Oil #s in 3 minutes….91.25 support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Crude_Composite_2.png

  291. 291
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude fell 11.12 million barrels, versus an expected 1M barrel drop; Gasoline rose 2.57M barrels; Distillate rose 4.57M barrels

  292. 292
    skibbi9 Says:

    Is there an option play here with BCEI? 

  293. 293
    nrgyman Says:

    NY investigation determines that fraccing is safe for use in the state.  

  294. 294
    Zorgnak Says:

    SJT   At breakout point/resistance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_6.png

  295. 295
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG  consolidating below resistance/breakout point
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_7.png

  296. 296
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS Price discovery
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_8.png

  297. 297
    Zorgnak Says:

    NAT GAS stocks (FCG)  at breakout point/resistance
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Weekly_3_9.png&nbsp;

  298. 298
    zman Says:

    Wifi on the plane. 

    Going through Eia

    big crude drw expected. Very low import numbers

    Flat uutilization flat mogas demand

    Weak dust demand

  299. 299
    zman Says:

    Re 293, yes , out a couple of days ago in NYT. The study was buried for a year by Quomo. They are working to supplement it now to probably get to the opposite as a guess nice. 

  300. 300
    zman Says:

    Re 292. Probably but it's a thin options trader. I may write some calls

  301. 301
    Alhambra Says:

    Harvest Natural Resources (HNR) with oil discovery in Gabon. Testing pre-salt, off-shore Gamba and Dentale Formations; well drilled in 380 ft of water, reached a vertical depth of 11,260 feet within the Dentale Formation.  Log evaluation and pressure data indicate that Harvest has discovered approximately 42 feet of pay in a 72 foot oil column within the Gamba Formation and 123 feet of pay in stacked reservoirs within the Dentale Formation. 

  302. 302
    zman Says:

    OAS. Yep, trying to make a move. Expect guidance there as soon as next week

  303. 303
    Zorgnak Says:

    "Vix on track for biggest weekly loss in 26 years" – CNBC

  304. 304
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Alhambra — any idea where HNR's block is vs EGY's Gabon offshore concession?

  305. 305
    Zorgnak Says:

    When the $VIX closes < 14 for the 1st time in 3 months, 2 weeks later it was higher 5/5 times, +26% avg.
    RT Jason Goepfert

  306. 306
    tomdavis12 Says:

    CS upgraded APA today. Since not a name that comes up here often will not bore with the details. They did however change their crude oil price projection for '13 to $102.75 down from $106. At least not one in the $80 camp.  

  307. 307
    Alhambra Says:

    Re 304: Etame appears to be adjacent field just north of Dussafu
    Harvest map: http://www.harvestnr.com/operations/gabon.html
    Vaalco Etame: http://subseaiq.com/data/Project.aspx?project_id=767&nbsp;
    Vaalco has 3 wells producing in Etame and one under development (according to: http://subseaiq.com/data/default.aspx), with Ebouri (under development) on the north side of Etame, furthest away from Dussafu.

  308. 308
    crysball Says:

    HNR's Dusafu  discovery is next  to &   just  South  of   EGY's Etame Marin  field by a few  miles.
    EGY  has  a large  prospect  they  have wanted to  drill  for  years   which  would  even  be  closer  to  Dusafu.     The   Elili  prospect  needs  a  Semisub  to  drilll  it,  and  while  Vaalco  is  very  keen  about  the prospect,  the partners  want    to go  after  the  low  hanging   (but  smaller) fruit.
    Here  is  a map  which  shows  the  producing  Etame  fileds and  the Elili  prospect:
    http://filecache.drivetheweb.com/ir1_vaalco/138/download/VAALCO+Company+Update+-+EnerCom+London+Oil+and+Gas+Conference+20
    Harvest  lacks  enough   proven reserves  @ Dusafu  to  make  the  hurdle cost  of   bringing  in an  FPSO  and  developing  their  discoveries  (now 2  with the announcement  today.
    All IMHO.
     
     

  309. 309
    zman Says:

    Re 305. Thx, interesting

    re 306. Thanks Tom .  Anyone watching CNBC, is here a parade of oil bears on anymore or do they need the $2 down day for that to trot out the doom and gloom types? LOL. 

  310. 310
    elijahwc Says:

    SD – These people (Prem Watsa, Buffett, Hawkins, Weitz, Steinberg & Cummings) don't let their portfolio companies go away. 
     
    10% owner Fairfax Financial bought 3.025 mln shares at $6.23-6.25 on 12/27-12/31, worth ~$18.9 mln

  311. 311
    john11 Says:

    Thanks for the EGY info.. Crysball any thoughts re them finally announcing their Angola partner?

  312. 312
    DaveH Says:

    RE: 309.   I watched CNBC Squawk Box for 20 minutes this morning.   They were totally focusing on what is after the fiscal cliff to solve the debt situation and no talk about oil.
     
    MVO +7.87% today presently 🙂

  313. 313
    zman Says:

    Bakken hanging in there pretty well

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USCSUHC1:IND

  314. 314
    zman Says:

    Re 312, thanks and gad to see MVO bumping up nicely. 

  315. 315
    Zorgnak Says:

    #309  yep..If you believe in Insurance, it's cheap atm.

  316. 316
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Alhambra and Crys — thank you for the EGY comments.  I know that EGY has held out the Elili prospect as something they would like to do… someday… when they can herd all their catty partners together.  Just thinking that the HNR announcement might put some renewed attention on it.  Can't see why it wouldn't.  "Close-ology" is the best sort of geology.

  317. 317
    elduque Says:

    NFX getting close to start eating the single prints from its big downdraft day on last quarter's earning. 

  318. 318
    crysball Says:

    re  316     EGY & Angola
    Was  informally  advised  the   Block  5 partner   approval  announcement  they were   passing  around  the table  at  the  Q3 CC  was a telephone call  from  the  outgoing  Sonangol   Head.   
    However,  the    new  head  of  Sonangol  is a  woman  who   has  decided  to add some  conditions  to  her  predecessors  approval   [She wants  to  make  her   mark  as a tought  negotiator].
    Vaalco  has gone   'RADIO  SILENT'   on the subject .
    They  face  a similar  situation  with    an  announcement  regarding  their  onshore  Gabon  discovery  well……as  the  Mutamba  concession  is  up  for  renegotiation  and  their  PSA  partner  TOTAL  GABON    (who  has 20+  years  experince in Gabon)  wants  to  play  hardball  with  the Government  of Gabon   and   not  even  announce  the discovery  well  so  they can   get  a better  deal   on  renewal  of the concession.
    We  are  again  back  to  herding  cats  in West Africa.

  319. 319
    Zorgnak Says:

    NG regaining support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/NG_Composite_3.png

  320. 320
    john11 Says:

    Crysball…thanks very much for the info!  Herding cats indeed.

  321. 321
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GEVO — we are seeing a short-squeeze of sorts playing out.  GEVO's 7.50% converts have an interesting coupon-put-feature that you can't "analyze" on Bloomberg.  But suffice it to say, that every day the stock trades up and the 10-day WVAP moves higher, it encourages short-covering.

  322. 322
    RMD Says:

    coal article from The Economist:
     
    “The mixed fortunes of a fuel”, The Economisthttp://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21569037-why-worlds-most-harmfulfossil-
    fuel-being-burned-less-america-and-more-europe. Stark reminder that popular or otherwise, the Christmas gift you didn’t
    want is still kind of a big deal in the energy community.

  323. 323
    1520sbroad Says:

    #321 – BOP do you have a CUSIP on those GEVO converts?

  324. 324
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    GEVO converts CUSIP 374396AA7

  325. 325
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Food for thought: Shell has just spent $4.5B on permits, equipment & personnel for their Kulluk oil rig (the NE rig) that has recently ran a ground off Alaska coast. They only have two top holes to show so far. They have had to assure envirnomentalists they can do everything safely with no risk. With the latest RIG $1.4B Macondo settlement and the Shell sad story, maybe the larger energy companies (FCX also) may come to conclusion that adding to NA E&P names maybe be good returns with less risk?  

  326. 326
    zman Says:

    Volatility in the group really fading. Volumes light? 

    Nice to see SWN poking up with Ng, supply date on the 7th, should be supportive, modestly so at least. Expect further roll from LA, flat Gulf, minor up TxOK, slight up Other states. Expect record demand for the month. 

  327. 327
    Zorgnak Says:

    Volume spikes today in 
    RIG REXX BCEI
    LDK 

  328. 328
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs..testing Thursday HOD
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/ES_IntraDay_11.png

  329. 329
    zman Says:

    Thanks, good to see some Bakker leadership out of CLR , OAS

  330. 330
    nrgyman Says:

    3:07 PM, Jan 04.  Continental Resources (CLR +2.2%) is initiated with a Buy rating and $94 price target at Deutsche Bank, which views CLR as uniquely positioned, with the dominant Bakken position in the industry, peer leading volume and cash flow growth, and deep resource inventory with significant upside from lower benches and downspacing. The firm sees costs and capital efficiency turning a corner in 2013.  (from Alpha)

  331. 331
    zman Says:

    Looked over BcEi Q, will need a deal later this year, don't know timing, but could go all senior debt at this point and hold off on dilution for a higher price. Past conversations I've had with them indicated no deal until we saw at least a 30 handle on the stock. So hard to say. My best guess is they get the stock up in conference season, announce big reserve growth, with the idea that reserve growth will slow in 2013 as they drill mostly PUDs this year. So get the ne higher on the reserves, and the first long lateral results and then do $500 mm or so in debt or a somewhat smaller deal in stock. 

  332. 332
    zman Says:

    Re CLR thanks BOP, nrgy

  333. 333
    zman Says:

    KOG may be in a bit of a holding pattern as they have not spilled their exit rate

    Somewhat silly but people will want that checked off the list before it really moves up. I'm not a big fan of exit rates as a small portfolio of wells make it more up to good luck or bad on timing than a rate that is solidly grown over time. 

  334. 334
    zman Says:

    John or anyone, got the BMO and GS conference schedules for next week?

  335. 335
    Zorgnak Says:

    HK HOD late in session…good volume
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Intraday.png

  336. 336
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM  Going for HOD late session…volume on the light side
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2013/01/04/Stock_Intraday_2.png

  337. 337
    Mark Wetzler Says:

    Zorg  did you see my DM on twitter?

  338. 338
    Zorgnak Says:

    #337 Just did..

  339. 339
    zman Says:

    Thank gang, wrap up in the morning, beerthirty

  340. 340
    Zorgnak Says:

    Tom, Any thoughts on SDRL here?

  341. 341
    john11 Says:

    Sorry about how that formatted.
    Here's a link to the page that will have the webcasts on tuesday  I'll be travelling.
    http://audability.com/AudabilityAdmin/Clients/BMO/101352_18201380000AM/lobby.aspx?Event_ID=1352

  342. 342
    zman Says:

    Thanks much John. 

  343. 343
    zman Says:

    Good to be back, the wrap will be up in the morning

  344. 344
    zman Says:

    Nice fat finger trade on GMXR, up 1215%?!

  345. 345
    Zorgnak Says:

    Welcome back Z

  346. 346
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg and thanks much for helping to mind the store. Very helpful when I'm focused on building sand castles. 

  347. 347
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 344 GMXR had a reverse split f 13:1 which created the new big price.

  348. 348
    zman Says:

    re 347 – ah, thanks, my system didn't account for it correctly and I forgot about it. And so the circling of the drain there continues. 

  349. 349
    brodway Says:

    re: 291
    is that right Zorg.
    Oil inventory down 11.2 million barrels? Seems like an excessively large number.

  350. 350
    zman Says:

    brodway – yes, its correct, reflected by API the night before. It happens at year end due to taxes on inventories and is a non-event, markets discount it, not a big deal. Cushing actually built by 600 m barrels, this should begin reversing in a few weeks. 

  351. 351
    zman Says:

    Here's the journal noting the tax effect:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130104-707595.html

  352. 352
    zman Says:

    Wrap up in a few minutes …

  353. 353
    brodway Says:

    thanks guys. haven't been up to speed in last few days. welcome back Z. Wishing you and the family a happy, healthy and prosperous 2013.

  354. 354
    zman Says:

    re 353 – thanks for the best wishes, it's good to be back, the wrap is up now. 

  355. 355
    kosher cooking on a Budget Says:

    kosher cooking on a Budget

  356. 356
    ut=83878c91171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a http://www.garagecommerce.com/businesses/10740014/title-loans-express/title-loans/ca/salinas/93901 http://www.contractspot.com/contractors/company-info.php?PHPSESSID=8qqn5jv7lr0qvt7pb08poioa60 http://www.bizlistonline.u Says:

    ut=83878c91171338902e0fe0fb97a8c47a http://www.garagecommerce.com/businesses/10740014/title-loans-express/title-loans/ca/salinas/93901 http://www.contractspot.com/contractors/company-info.php?PHPSESSID=8qqn5jv7lr0qvt7pb08poioa60 http://www.bizlistonl&#8230;

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