04
Dec

Tuesday Morning – Bakken Player Update

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Market continues to trade on Fiscal Cliff fears but tone has improved for the group and sideways trading seems to be in progress. In today's post please find the full Bakken Players Update and a few other odds and ends. We will release basic models through next year for some of the names in the Bakken piece in coming days. 

Ecodata Watch:  None scheduled today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Bakken Players Full Update,  energy conference schedule, 
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

break

Holdings Watch:

  • ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):
    • Yesterday’s Trades: None
  • ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)
    • Yesterday’s Trades: None

The Blotter is updated. 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil inched up $0.18 to close at $89 yesterday after first topping $90 with a nine week high on the front month contract. The move was likely dollar based and based on demand and inventory levels at present, further extremely near term gains in US oil prices, all other things being equal, seem a bit hard to justify. When utilization ticks up further and we have a sustainable shot of cold in the northeast then I would expect a little further strength. OPEC may be helpful as well. This morning crude is trading off a little under a buck.

 

Natural gas recovered $0.03 to close at $3.59 yesterday in calm lower volume trading and despite some really mild weather that's holding temperatures to unseasonable levels over a broad swatch of the U.S.  This morning gas is reversing yesterday's small gain. 

Stuff We Care About Today

Bakken Players Update - Sector getting cheaper while moving in the right direction. Comments are included with graphs as warranted.  If your screen does not display the right hand column please try clicking on the table. 

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Other Stuff

  • Conferences
    •  Dahlman Rose (all times EST)
      • Link to the webcasts:

        • HAL - 9am
        • BAS - 10:45 am 
        • CJES - 2:05 pm 
        • Most of the E&P's speak tomorrow including EXXI
    • CapOne Southcoast (all times EST)

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • BCEI - SocGen ups target by $1 to $26, stays at Hold
  • LPI - SocGen cuts target by $2 to $24, stays Buy
  • MPO - SocGen cuts target by $1 to $14, stays Buy
  • ---

101 Responses to “Tuesday Morning – Bakken Player Update”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Pangea applies for license to export LNG from Corpus, if approved probable in service date is 2018. Would add to Cheniere, Dominion, Southern Co, and Freeport LNG who are further along in the export prep process.  

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Short Term Areas of Interest  12/4 8:54 AM  ES 1409 Notes/Thoughts
    Notes…. Market tested full range of low volume zone from 1422.25CHVN/supply-1406.75CHVN/volume pivot. Market stretched from current short term balance area 1413.50 and close to upper end of previous short term balance at 1400.25. 1406.75 remains key area of acceptance with bullish bias above. Demand volume positive/flattening. Breath trend positive, correcting from short term overbought. POMO supportive through 12/6. TD exhaustion sell setups confirmed in US/Euro markets and in risk sectors. Currencies supportive. No major econ#s until Thursday.
    Thoughts…. Expecting bullish consolidation if the market rejects the 1406.75 volume pivot as too low. If rejected as too high looking for deeper pullback into congestion/muddle below with 1395.75CLVN as key short term support/key to depth of pullback. A break of that level has 1379 as the major level of acceptance/magnet below. To my eye, market is attempting to retrace recent high volume short covering rallies from 1385. Remains to be see where/if new buyers appear. 
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone-VPOC=Daily Most Accepted Price
    1428.50 CHVN-Heavy intermediate supply begins at 1422
    1406-1422  Low volume/high volatility area.
    1406.75  CHVN, Short term volume pivot/CurrentlyTesting. Bullish Bias above. Congestion below.
    1395.75 Minor CLVN support/Neckline of two major short covering rallies.
    1379.50  CHVN, Volume pivot.
    1370.50   CLVN, Key support with low volume area below to 1359 and below.
    1351.25   Major CHVN
    S&P Futures
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Es_Composite_2.png

  3. 3
    elduque Says:

    BDI coming off -23 to 1054 
     
    Brent/WTI at 21.7

  4. 4
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Thanks for the BB's updates. Is there a simple explaination for the ebitda growth for KOG to be much higher than the others?

  5. 5
    tomdavis12 Says:

    SDRL Paid 2 quarterly dividends today. Accelerating income this year like many others.

  6. 6
    Denise Says:

    z-Very nice Bakken update-Thank you

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 4.  You're welcome.  For KOG that's just higher production growth in 2013 relative to their peers.   If they exit around their 27,000 BOEpd mark and have a program similar in size to this years they should be looking at a 29,000 to 30,000 BOEpd year this year. Given the missed estimates of Q's 1 -3 this year, the annual average is far lower than one would guess from the exit rate. So low today, high tomorrow from a production standpoint. I'm assuming he misses 4Q too which sets up a stronger percentage growth number for 2013. 

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs Opening at the volume pivot 1406.75….sluggish open to a likely sluggish day…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_2.png

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 6 – Hope it helps, glad to be of service, and don't you be a stranger. 

  10. 10
    Gtinvest Says:

    MPO upgraded by Howard Weil from Mkt Out[perform to Focus Stock. up 6.4%

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P testing overnight high(1409.75)..initially rejecting 1406.75 pivot..as too low.

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P breaking O/N high…upside target at 1415.50, Monday VPOC
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_3.png

  13. 13
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: NOG looks like the severence package really goosed up short term expenses. Without that, 20 employees cost are very low for production levels. What kind of grade do you give Reger as a CEO.

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    PVA…continues to push up through the debris from the secondary implosion…4 consecutive days VPOC upshift….grinding higher
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_2.png

  15. 15
    Denise Says:

    Z-has there been any material change in the inside ownership for any of the Bakken names?

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    Light relative volume out the gate for energy names 18 of 82 with high volume. 40 of 82 green

  17. 17
    RB Says:

    NOG has broken everyone's heart a lot, but it is looking really good on this move off the Nov. bottom…..

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 13 – B+ … does a good job of telling the story, improving as time goes by, would like to see him buy the stock, execution has been as delineated, sticking with plan as plan is working.  Not sure when the stock wakes up to that but would think at latest it does when they start free cash flowing in 2014.  

    re 14 – thanks, we added to that one last week, first time in awhile. 

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    NY ISM up to 52.5 from 45.9

  20. 20
    elduque Says:

    Z did you ever get a response back from NFX re questions about the international division.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    re 15 – Not that I recall, but on that one I replace the numbers each time and don't track it over time. 

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    re 20 – No but I got busy and didn't call him back. The Q answered my math question. 

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    SSN – off 18%. No news that I see. Selling started before the open. Momo action. 

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Watching TPLM for an add. 

  25. 25
    Dillon Says:

    Z – did you ever hear back from your source on if IDC's uncertainty was affecting M&A activity?

  26. 26
    tomdavis12 Says:

    LNCO/LINE Spread between the two should increase if we are headed to dividend tax increases. Just some quick numbers ( have calls in to confirm current difference going forward ). LINE div $2.90 LNCO $2.84. Current LINE taxes paid $0, LNCO .13. If expiration of Bush tax cuts or IDC's or both the after tax differentials increase to the LNCO income.  

  27. 27
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs..back to the pivot 1406.75…..breadth +9 in the S&P 500  zzzzz..time for breakfast

  28. 28
    nrgyman Says:

    KOG just filled a gap from August.  Just added some shares.

  29. 29
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM  bounced off support on the open….recent supply to 6.10
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_3.png

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Dillon — been checking around a bit about the IDCs.  The sense is that "yes, there is some affect" on banker's thoughts and actions.  But haven't gotten any hard evidence yet.
     
    TPH put out a thought piece on Monday that said they estimate that if IDCs were dropped completely as a tax deduction, their models indicate a 17% hit on E&Ps free cash flow.  That seems sizeable enough to me to affect banker noggins.  But still nosing around for more info.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    re 25 – no, its a friend of a fried so am waiting. Strangely, when I left the sellside, all my banker friends stopped calling me.  ;-(

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Doing some natural gas stuff, will be on the BAS call at 10:45 EST. 

  33. 33
    Zorgnak Says:

    XCO Holding above long term volume base. Trend support. Room to move to 8.11
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_4.png

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    NOG – SunTrust makes it their Top Pick. Raising 2013 production forecast and lower 2013 capex thoughts due to Montana well results.

    We've been thinking NOG talk more about their south of Elm Coulee stuff in Montana (Slawson operated), guess they are. 

    Ryan Oatman at SunTrust gets my "Gutsy Move Maverick" award of the month. Not that its gutsy to recommend a cheap stock but given the dislocation between results and stock performance there are probably easier things to call your Top Pick. 

  35. 35
    Dillon Says:

    re 30/31 – thanks for checking it out. I have a couple feelers out as well on it…will let everybody know on what I hear too from the sellside.

  36. 36
    RMD Says:

    Traveling yesterday so catching up:
    MMR ending up on the day (Mon.) tells me the market has written off DJ1 as a P&A.
    Anyone know the reasoning behind HW's upgrade of MPO:  I'm wondering if they have more well results or other blinding insight?

  37. 37
    andy Says:

    z –  my thoughts on KOG/NOG. a few months ago  we were all surprised that NOG kept falling while having good results.  then someone floated the idea that pairs trade were being made by people buying the bakkens and hedging by shorting NOG.  I think recently we have seen the unwinding of that trade with NOG way outperforming KOG/OAS/CLR.  I think (hope) that unwinding is done now , and we will see  the bakkens start to rise again. KOG is my #1 holding and my cost basis is below $1 (thks BOP) making it hqrd to sell cause of tax consequences.  feel better now that u are back long it.  
    impressive bakkens info today –  thks

  38. 38
    crysball Says:

    Z,
    As  a matter  of curiousity,  do   you share   your   work……….for  example  the  superb  Baaken  Player  Analytics piece  you  published  this  AM   with  the   Baaken Players?
    Also, do  the  the  Players  subscribe (if  not  they should,  just  to  keep  appriaised  of  your  analysis)?

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Hope it helps. Re NOG, I have not been surprised by the moves since the wake of the initial pullback during my spring break in 2011. Having a lot f names in the portfolio I didn't mind have a non-operator in there. I also expected a little more support from guys with buy ratings 2x the stock price. They really let it down. That fall was the result of a well done mud slinging campaign as well all know and the story remained intact although I would guess that the shorts effectively prevented dilution that probably would have come by now in a more balanced capital funding approach. TEV is less than it was in March 11 despite the rapid growth in reserves and production.  You could argue that it was ahead of itself then but now its just cheap.  So I'm patient. My original core was around here, I have trading shares a good deal higher and a bit lower and that doesn't really matter to anyone or me, just reiterating some patience. If I had to own one Bakken it would not be them only due to the market's bias against their model. But thankfully I don't have that constraint. My guess is the stock wakes up into eventual free cash flowness and that the name some day gets taken out as part of a bigger deal.  

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 36 – could be although I would suspect where they to T&A it and move on to DJ2 without a result the stock will have a dip then rally. 

    re 38

    – I generally do not share that piece. Was toying with occasionally putting it out there for free.  

    – We have a few E&Ps, in and out of the ZLT that do subscribe. 

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    BAS staring now 

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Barclays annual estimate of E&P spending, shows global spending up 7% in 2013 to $644 B.  

      – NAM to be up only 1% in 2013. 

       – International up 9% in 2013. 

    Nutshell: Probably the best survey out there for spending. Probably viewed as good news for SLB, and not good news (but not surprising new) for HAL which may explain the tiny ups in both today and the field of green in Service in general today. 

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    BAS Notes

     – Permian biggest market, only market they provide all of their services in, 

     – Talking about 25% of all US rigs there

     – Low cost environment, good worker base

     – Highly diversified with top 10 accounting for 38% of revenues, total > 2,000 customers

    – Guidance for 4Q intact … but calling 4Q unusually slow activity, relative to 3Q and 4Q11.

        –  Saying its due to oil price environment

         – Saying people spent early and didn't reload,

          – Usually see a reload in capital budgets in August / September and say $0 of that this year

          – Seeing 2013 as back end loaded

          – Seeing rig count drifting lower into early next year

          – Saying revenue range is down 5 to 7% respectively, and they think it will now be at lower end of the range

          – Saying competition is increasing

    Sheesh … wow, that sounds like a big ball of fun.  Stock is in a big long base after rallying off the recent low test

  44. 44
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P Futs breaking below initial balance, rejecting 1406.75 as too high…multiple minor support areas in a dense area of congestion to 1395CLVN/key short term support. Nearest minor support at 1401.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_5.png

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    BAS sort of shooting the stock in the head with the honest look at next year which sounds pretty bleak to me at least next 6 months. 

  46. 46
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN presenting at Cap ONe Southcoast at 11:40 – I think that is central time so 12:40 est.  I don't think they are webcasting… maybe a new presentation on their site today though?
     
    SWN down with the 12:30 tee times scheduled for today in the NY metro area…

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    BAS

     – see mid to low 30%'s margin stabilization

     – don't see price improvement soon due to extra equipment in the field

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    re 46 – yeah, not webcasting, last presentation is about a month old. Gassy names off across the board today, SWN probably the steepest off 2% but has been one of the best holding up names. 

    BAS

    – Don't see pricing, margin improvement without rising rig count. 

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    OK, I'm not very smart some times. I had the wrong day up on Dahlman. 

    Listening to EXXI which presented a couple of hours ago. Notes in a bit. 

  50. 50
    tomdavis12 Says:

    LINE/LNCO. Prospectus has an approx range of LNCO dividend being 2 -5 % lower to take care of the amt tax. That will likely continue indefinely. Effect of doing away with depletion & IDC's are likely to reduce the amount of income that is tax defered in MLPland. However if that happens all of the aggressive balance sheet companies like CHK will have their troats slit and will have to sell mucho properties. From that standpoint much more M&A activity.   DAVE for your question about UBTI income in qualified plans here is your rule of thumb. Invest in MLP"s that have high capex for that will give them the most return of capital.  Hidden Gem: LNCO over time will be having a higher % of their dividend as return of cap. I have not seen sellsiders pick that up but I do not have access to many.  

  51. 51
    blackgold39 Says:

    Z – What are your thoughts on NOG's G&A?  Their figure of $9+/BOE seemed heavy, especially for such a small shop

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    EXXI notes from Dahlman 

    Shiller – when you step back from the frustrations at Davy Jones you'll see they have uncovered a new play

     Moving to non Ultra Deep

    – Majority of our acreage is HBP

    – We're making a run with a propellant gun now, expect to make a couple of runs, 

    – everything about the wellbore says there are no roadways for the gas to get into the wellbore, so that's what we going to fix now. 

    – Saying in the new wells (Blackbeard West forward), they have better tools available than they did when drilling Davy Jones. 

    – Added a new guy to run joint operations, probably see budget go from $700 mm to $800 mm (not at all a problem from a financial standpoint)

    – Reiterated that despite the oil / gas mix being roughly 70 / 30 their revenue is roughly $120 mm oil and $10 mm NG per month. 

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    re 52 – It contains a one time severance for Ryan's departure.   The previous three quarters were $5.49, $6.04, and $4.66 per BOE. 

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Street looking for -71 Bcf for Thursday. After that it will go back t a flattish number in the next week since I am thinking that its going to be too hot for a run today. Sheesh, come on winter. 

  55. 55
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 53 – must be nice

  56. 56
    crysball Says:

    New  England Gas  Supply……..very  spiky  prices………..as   current   Canadian suppliers  focus  on  Europe,  and  the  lack  of  New  England   in-ground  gas  storage[hard  rocks  in New  Engalnd]   make  supply  an  issue…in spite  of  all  that  Marcellus  production………….interesting:
    http://www.rbnenergy.com/the-mighty-algonquin-supplying-new-england-the-eskimos

  57. 57
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: What is your current thinking about the OPEC meeting? Are you still thinking production cut? Responsibility bourne by only SA? If there is a cut, will that be a small or large fire underneath the energy sector?  

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    EXXI 

    Talking about Davy Jones
     

    If you want to criticize us for something, criticize for not walking away from a 5" completion. A 5" completion is what you do when you have screwed up life. It's like making a completion up your drill pipe. You don't want to be doing it and that's where we ended up. 

    If I thought there was any indication it was tight we would be out of there but its not

    Davy Jones 2 – total different sands, will perf 650' of Cretaceous sands, all at once tubing conveyed. Think it will be Summer before they get on it as that's when they will have all the pieces needed for the completions. 

    Newer wells have the tools to tell you a lot more about them. 

    Overall investment in the ultra deep is shy of $200 mm for EXXI  

    How he looks at DJ 1 – spent about $85 mm so he has to get you back about $3 per share in value for it

  59. 59
    tomdavis12 Says:

    At least when Shiller speaks his stock goes up. He should give lessons to our POTUS.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    re 55 – started it on the back of cocktail napkin, not atypical payout for an exit. 

    re 57 – no change in thinking by me since the Catalyst List update. Not looking for a quota cut, just comments that move toward suppression of production from over quota levels. More language than official action. OPEC chatter has been fairy quiet pre meetng but I did see some comments out of Kuwait that large customer orders will stay at expected levels (high) through March.  Several guys will ask for OPEC quota cuts, again, don't think it happens. But I do think they will be pulling back on the throttle as they are producing about 1 mm bopd more than their own monthly report says is needed for balance. SA has wanted prices to fall, that happened, so I would expect their language to approach more of a soft landing style. 

  61. 61
    nrgyman Says:

    Weather (temperature) outlook 6-10 day.  Warmer than normal in east and colder than normal in west.  Weather in west generally moves east so eventually (in about 2 weeks) we may see the east get much cooler.  From my read of it.
     
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.01.gif

  62. 62
    Zorgnak Says:

    ROSE testing defined support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_7.png
     
    RRC Bounced off long term acceptance and holding support.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_8.png

  63. 63
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM  Testing minor support/AM lows at 5.85
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Stock_Weekly_3_9.png

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES

    ZLT – KOG

    KOG – Added a second trading position at just under $8.16, name has been trading lower relative to its peers in front of a production rise into year end and a stronger than peer group average growth rate next year.  

    ZLT – TPLM 

    TPLM – Added another trading position at $5.95. Also trading sloppily in the current macro backdrop.  Name remains the cheapest Bakken operator out there on a number of metrics while they continue to execute on their 2 operated rig plan.  Expecting a good quarter of production growth with a reiteration of past guidance for the January exit.Also looking for a substantially more significant contribution from their Service side and perhaps a well highlight from their first test in the Three Forks.  

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    POTUS speaks in 10 minutes on Bloomy
    http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    re 65 – Thanks. 

  67. 67
    choices Says:

    Eagle Ford article:
    http://www.businessinsider.com/tour-of-the-eagle-ford-shale-2012-12?op=1

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    CLR – second day of follow through from yesterdays bench 3 TFS well. 

  69. 69
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…stuck, straddling the volume pivot at 1406.50(today's VPOC right on the pivot…)Pressure on the bulls below 1406.50 with recent supply just above.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_8.png

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    I got nothing new out of Obama's comments on Bloomberg. 

  71. 71
    choices Says:

    OT-Tax analysis of various scenarios:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/business/tax-cut-scenarios/?hpid=z1

  72. 72
    elduque Says:

    This sector is sure unloved. Would have expected higher prices with the dollar down????

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    re 72 – Higher prices for what?

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    Anyone have access to a quick quote on PVA 10.375 bonds today, thanks

  75. 75
    choices Says:

    #74-zorg:  IB's=105/105.250

  76. 76
    Zorgnak Says:

    #75  thanks a lot

  77. 77
    elduque Says:

    crude, stocks that I own, etc. 

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    re 77 – I would not expect a move up in crude in the near term, I am just expecting it to hold around here. The move over $90 the other day was puzzling when it happened and it turned out to be not sustainable (it was dollar prompted).  I don't care about moves on a daily basis. Over time the names go higher on flat oil prices as their stories unfold. The market in general is tepid of tone and weak of direction today. Oil  production has been rising faster than infrastructure can get it out of Cushing and that has bloated oil stocks there which is the pricing point for domestic crude. Cushing stocks as such are near all time highs. This is a short term phenomenon. What it does any one day or week makes little sense at times so again, don't care. Near term I see overall crude stocks going lower on higher utilization but no substantial fall in Cushing inventories until Spring (medium term) to me. Also in the medium term I expect higher exports due to ongoing price differences and enough spare refining utilization to handle some increasing higher margin business.  The stock move more with the market than with oil in general and on any one day can be expected to do worse on red days and better on green day in the broad market unless the commodities are running severely counter.  There remains elevated worry over tax issues for oil companies at this time. Further the market lacks direction today with no real eco data to key off and the President giving speeches through channels like BB. It all adds to uncertainty.    It's been a roughly U-shaped year with summer the low and now a little 3Q reporting period pullback.  What  you call unloved, I look at the XOP and call, the sideways trade.   

  79. 79
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…volume shifting in favor of another upside try today….bulls need to get this above 1406.75 and even better above 1411 to get out of the congestion and pressure of recent supply..

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    add to 78/79 – I spend as little time as possible worrying over the minute to minute, day to day price moves. The one's I note from time to time are generally outliers on the day. I try to avoid short term thinking at all unless I'm concerned about an option which is a pretty tiny piece of my focus. So I note CLR is up again suggesting some people are caring about the potential that could be involved in opening up another zone under a good sized piece of a million acre position in what is my main basin.  Or I note that SWN is trading down to the lower end of the recent range on weaker gas prices on this heat. Gas prices are now a lot better than they have been most of the year and this dip is a blip in my book. Or I note something is moving through on of my very layman's eye TA levels and note that. But otherwise, I keep busy reading, mathing, checking to make sure that my macro thinking is in line with my macro math and that my micro thinking is in line with the math there as well and how that relates to how the Street is thinking. Sometimes they are too conservative, as with HK for a time. Sometimes I may be out of line or too aggressive.  I know guys who stare at the market watch hoping it higher or lower. That would drive me nuts. 

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    We'll have the State by State oil production detail in tomorrow's post along with a look at our best crack at what's up with current "Other States" natural gas production. 

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Market appears to have fallen asleep. Not surprising given DC and the lack of ecodata. I'm here, shout if you need something, otherwise writing. 

  83. 83
    elduque Says:

    re 78 and 80- Thanks. Can't disagree, just like instant gratification. 

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    re 83 – hear ya, can't blame ya, I just try to keep from that. 

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Houekeeping Watch:

    If you use the Print Friendly button you can select print PDF for on the go viewing with actual non electronic paper. I'm told today's post is only 25 pages long and probably makes good kindling should we get a cold snap. 

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Canadian Natural says plans to boost production 9% next year as it is bullish on US oil demand and prices for its crude in 2013.  Meanwhile they are letting their natural gas production fall. 

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Shiller about to speak again, if you missed the first one here is another chance at Capital One for an EXXI listen. 

    http://wsw.com/webcast/cof4/exxi/

  88. 88
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs….Essentially edgeless chop with shorts getting offsides a bit earlier today. post #79
    .Market hanging out above 1406.50 volume pivot after testing minor support at 1401. Put buying ramping the last two days….room for a squeeze higher back to 1413.50. See who's got the juice here…………
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Es_Composite_2_2.png

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    RRC trying to hold the 200 day, have not yet added there but have been meaning to. Weather may take it lower. 

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    EXXi – 2nd presentation, all conventional stuff so far, not Shiller at this one. 

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    EXXI

    Blackbeard West – at 25.2 K' going to TD of 25.5 K', so very soon be done drilling unless they deepen, don't think they will here. 

    Lineham Creek, at 25K,, going to 29K , already seen pays, nothing new, just a little deeper

    No value add from that presentation. 

     

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty, back in a bit. 

  93. 93
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs….Very balanced day (see intra-day volume distribution) with price unable to get far from the volume pivot at 1406.50. 1408.75 is the key upside level for the bulls to overcome to move above congestion and recent supply. Below 1406.50 the auction will trade in  very dense congestion with a number of minor support areas to monitor for the depth of pullback. (Marked on Charts). Expecting choppy/slow trading, getting heavier the further below 1401 it goes.  Below minor support at 1395 major acceptance is at 1379.50.  
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/Es_Composite_2_3.png
    Intra Day chart
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_9.png

  94. 94
    Zorgnak Says:

    Not sure what's going on with this but China up 3% so far tonight and  the S&P Futs are on fire at the moment retracing all of today's range and more….
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/12/04/FT71_ES_Intraday_52512_10.png

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    re 94 – technical bounce off 4 year low?

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Reuters story on the tape saying Freeport is looking to buy MMR and PXP

     

  97. 97
    milepost_43 Says:

    96  From FT

    <span class="articleLocation”>Dec 5 (Reuters) – Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc is looking to buy McMoRan Exploration Co and another larger oil and gas company in a bid to move back to its roots as an energy producer, the Financial Times said.
    Besides the relatively smaller McMoRan Exploration deal, Freeport is expected to buy an oil and gas company that has assets in the Gulf of Mexico, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter. It did not provide the total deal value.
    The larger target had close ties with Freeport executives and could be worth about $10 billion, including debt, the paper said. ()
    The Financial Times did not name the larger target but cited Plains Exploration and Production as having links with Freeport.
    Plains owns a 31.5 per cent stake in McMoRan Exploration while Plains Chief Executive James Flores sits on the board of McMoRan Exploration.
    Also, Plains Exploration had recently bought oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico from BP Plc.
    Freeport spokesman Eric Kinneberg declined to comment on the report when contacted by Reuters. Plains Exploration and Production, and McMoRan Exploration could not be reached for comment.
    Freeport, the world's largest publicly traded copper company, was once a diversified group with oil and gas operations, before selling those assets to focus on mining.

  98. 98
    RB Says:

    Damn it…I went to bed too early and didn't sleep much…should've staid up to read that news and I would have slept better….thx guys

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Tee hee hee… couldn't be happier!  Everyone gets a good deal… FCX, MMR, and Jim Flores.  Wow.  Thought this would happen someday (although, didn't expect PXP to be invited to the party).  But today?  Frankly, it is BRILLIANT.

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    THIS is what can happen when you have low-cost debt and open markets available to you.  FCX is going to finance most of this purchase with debt.  Wow.  Gotta go get me some FCX and hold onto it for the long run. 

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    The Wednesday post is up, $0 Joe and all. 

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