08
Nov

Thursday Morning – A Lot More Earnings

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Market Sentiment Watch: Busy, busy, busy day today. WLL up story STO making $65 bid
. Not a lot of rational thinking yesterday with knee jerk selling in energy and in commodities on the U.S. election outcome and European data. In energy land we have earnings overload today. In the post please find comments on eight names of interest reporting today which will cause us to go to a more bulletized format than usual for commentary (shorter, more to the point, and so if anything is unclear please feel free to ask about it in the comments section).   We've included as many helpful graphs as time allowed. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless claims are expected to come in at 365,000 vs 363,000 last week,
  • Tomorrow we get consumer sentiment and wholesale inventories

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – OAS, ROSE, CLR, MPO, FTK,  CXPO, NOG, HK, 
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Holdings Watch:

ZMT (Zman Medium Term portfolio):

  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • OAS – Added a trading position at $30.11, on group/market/commodity related weakness.  The name in my view remains one of the better values in the Wiliston Basin and is doing more with less as well costs fall. Infrastructure buildout has led to improved margins and we should continue to see lower per unit costs as the quarter roll by. They are looking to expand outside of the Basin and we don't know where or what they will go after but they have proven themselves to be under promise, over deliver types and good operators. Earnings call tomorrow. 
  • The Blotter is updated.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil dropped on the post election market plummet ending the day off $4.27 at $84.44 yesterday, more than offsetting Tuesday's $3+ gain. Prices were unaided by a bearish looking across the board headlined by a big build in gasoline stocks that were likely caused by demand depressed by Hurricane Sandy.  This morning crude is trading up a buck.

Natural gas eased $0.04 to close the day at $3.58 yesterday. We are in the tail end of the shoulder season and traders have taken a few profits due to uncertain demand for electrical power in the wake of Sandy and due to renewed fears on the economic growth front. This is natural and part of the 2 steps forward, 1 step back price recovery process. A little more sloppiness ahead and then weather should start firming up price via above average withdrawals (probably 2 to 6 weeks out). This morning gas is trading off slightly. 

Natural Gas Inventory Preview

Street is at +26 BCF for today's report. Again, tougher week to gauge due to Sandy impacts. 

  • Last Week: +65 Bcf
  • Last Year: +37 Bcf
  • 5 Year Average: +28 Bcf
  • 10 year Hi: +54 Bcf
  • 10 year Low: -82 Bcf

Oil Inventory Review:

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Stuff We Care About Today

Call plans for today (all times EST)

  • FTK 8:30 am
  • MPO 9 am
  • HK 10 am (will circle back to NOG)
  • OAS (11 am) (will circle back to ROSE)
  • Circle back to replay for remaining ones that overlap. 

OAS Reports Big 3Q12 Beat, Upped 2012 Guidance; Strong EBITDA Margins

The 3Q12 Number: Production above the top end of the range and unit costs fell on the strong volumes. EBITDA per BOE almost tied 1Q12 levels despite oil prices as measured by WTI being $11 lower this quarter as compared to 1Q12. See graphs below. 

Guidance:

  • 4Q12 initiated at 26 to 28 MBOEpd (up 11% sequentially on the mid)
  • 2012 increased:
    • Was: 20.5 to 22.5 MBOEpd
    • Is: 22.1 to 22.6 MBOEpd (up 108% on the mid)

Highlights:

  • Well costs down to $8.8mm now vs $10.5 mm in 1H12. Nice.
  • As usual, nothing in the way of "well news".
  • Balance Sheet:
    • Cash and short term of $407 mm
    • Net debt to cap of 51%
    • Debt to last 12 months EBITDA is at 2.8x which is fine, net debt to LTM EBITDA is under 2x. 

Nutshell: Nice beat and raise. Street estimates will be rising for the beat and the 4Q guide. Expect them to get lots of questions about 2013 budget and production guidance. Expect them to give little ground on the issue. Also expect them to get asked about the outside Williston Basin concept and for them to defer speaking about it. This name still remains to my eye one of the better performing management teams in the Bakken doing a good job of promising big and delivering bigger. And they remain cheap for an operator on all metrics relative to some play leading peers. I continue to own the name as a Core position in the ZLT. 

HK Reports 3Q12 Results; Ups Guidance

Guidance:

  • 4Q12
  • 2013 Volumes:
    • was 32 to 38,000 BOEpd,
    • is now at 40 to 45,000 BOEpd with a much higher liquids mix than the old forecast at 80% oil, 5% NGL and 15% natural gas
  • 2013 budget: $1.2 B drilling budget and includes $100 mm for assets in the EFS being held for sale. This is lower than I thought and I suspect it rises to accommodate the recent Bakken adds but don't know. Had thought they'd be closer to $1.4 to $1.5 B. 

Highlights:

  • Core Plays
  • Woodbine
    • 200,000 net acres
    • 5 to 6 rigs running
    • 15 wells completed, 6 more by year end
    • Reducing CWC costs by $1 mm (15%) due variety of items
    • Don't have production total here but maybe on call
  • Williston Basin (Bakken/Three Forks)
    • > 135,000 net acres assuming recent deal with Petro-Hunt closes
    • Spud 3 wells in Williams County and 3 in Roosevelt County, Montana during the quarter
    • Saying results are better than type curve in early days
    • Will move 1 rig to FBIR area (KOG / XOM country) in 1Q13 to drill higher interest, and what should be higher rate wells
  • Utica /Point Pleasant
    • 130,000 net acres
    • 2 wells spud in late October – look for results late in 1Q13 so probably after the 4Q call. 
  • Non Core Plays
  • Midway / Navarro 
    • 1st well completed up hole in the Midway for 595 BOEpd (16% oil) – given heat and depth its gassier than what they wanted I suspect. Second well being evaluated.
  • Tuscaloosa 
    • 1st well drilled, encouraged by cores from the vertical, drilling lateral now. Planning 3 more
  • Eagle Ford
    • Since August (and this date is used to show HK taking over completion method) their 8 wells have averaged 545 BOEpd first 30 day rates with 93% oil,
    • Have to sell this and data room is open… I'd expect a deal in the not too distant future, would thing $250 mm plus but want to hear area current production.  

Nutshell: This quarter is not about the numbers as those continue to be for a company that no longer exists relative the balance sheet, acreage, production mix (should be 26,500 BOEpd pro forma), reserves, and opportunity set they have built. Guidance going up was expected although this is a bit more than I was looking for. The story boils down to Woodbine, Bakken, Utica oil plays driving growth with the rest of the plays to either success and become core or get punted (most of the current non core crop will get punted). I continue to own the name in the ZLT. 

 

NOG Reports In Line (slight beat) 3Q12 Results … Consistent, high margin, growth

The 3Q12 Number:  Volumes were guided to 11.2 MBOEpd and came in slightly higher.  

Guidance:

  • Assuming no change to the prior thinking of ~ 4 mm BOE on the year. 

Highlights:

  • EBITDA per BOE of $60.80, which is in line with names like KOG and OAS for the quarter,
  • Picked another 3,815 net acres in the quarter for an average of $2,060 per acre, bringing them to 184,000 net acres.
  • Favorite quote watch (and this sums it up well) "We continue to be very pleased with our results.  Our record quarterly production reflects our high quality asset base, the quality of our operating partners, and exceptional performance by the entire Northern Oil team.  As many of our operating partners have mentioned, we expect improved operational efficiencies and service costs to trend lower.  The availability of completion services has shortened spud to sales times, and take-away capacity remains healthy.  We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and focused on executing our simple and effective business plan."

Nutshell: Simple story and they continue to execute as expected. Name remains highly discounted to the group on a variety of metrics due to its non operated status (nothing new here) despite a strong balance sheet, no external funding needs this year or next, a largely HBP'd acreage position across a broad swath of the Williston which will be likely completely held by year end 2013, and operating metrics that stack up nicely relative to its operated peers in the play.  

MPO Reports 3Q Miss; But a nice horizontal wilcox well and I just want to listen to them talk at this point

Guidance:

  • 2012 was 9.8 to 10.5 MBOEpd was not mentioned in the press release. 
  • 2013 guidance was 20 to 23 MBOEpd and also was not mentioned

Highlights:

  • Wilcox
    • North Cowards Gully horizontal (the Musser-Davis 8H-1) the highlight of the quarter. This well was previously announced as a 1,649 BOEpd well but has produced at an average rate of 1,411 BOEpd since September 25th which is better than anyone was probably expecting. It also speaks to the variability of the play as I don't expect and would think others should not expect to see them punch a bunch of wells just like this one. 
  • Miss Lime
    • Plan to hit the ground running in 4Q12 spudding 12 horizontal wells. 

Nutshell: Some bit of confidence returning at this lower price but one good well does not make me want to stay without a lot more color.  I continue to own the name in the ZLT but that could change today during or after they present. 

 

 

ROSE Reports Solid 3Q12 Results; Liquids Continue Move Higher

Guidance:

  • October production average 41 MBOEpd
  • They are saying they now expect to exit at the high end of their prior range of 39 to 44 MBOEpd
  • 2013 –  they didn't give guidance but they did say that given the same level of activity in 2013 as they have had in 2012 they would look for 30% growth. On average, the Street is looking for 35% growth but I don't think that's a disappointment as again, its not guidance, and they may choose to move more swiftly. Also, they like to beat, so starting at 30% is probably going to be the lowest end of their expectations on a similar well count. Also, if they were to stay at five rigs chances are high they would complete more wells next year as drilling times continue to slowly decline. 

Highlights:

  • Eagle Ford
    • 5 rigs running (same as before)
    • 36.5 MBOEpd in the quarter (so almost all of their production
    • Gate Ranch (core of the four area) seeing continued good results at 55 acre spacing
    • Briscoe ranch – 3 pad drilled wells performing on type curve
    • New area to test, in central Dimmit – the Lasseter & Eppright acreage (8,100 acre tract), first well had a 7 day rate of 1,228 BOEpd (54% oil, 21% NGLs). This is higher than you see at 
    • Location count stands at roughly 800 on not too tightly spaced thinking.

Nutshell: Solid Eagle Ford player continues to hit on all cylinders. Good quarter, improving margins as costs remain in check and there are indications they are going to continue to remain in check even as liquids as a percent of the mix inch up. I continue to own the name in the ZLT. 

 

CLR Reported In Line 3Q12 Results; Reiterates Guidance; Announces Williston Buy

Guidance: Reiterated

  • 2012 still at 57 to 59% (and that's with a small divestiture
  • 2013: 30 to 35%

Highlights:

  • Williston Basin
    • Montana – noted that 2 of 5 wells completed in Montana had IP's over 1,000 BOEpd.  Would think those are close to SSN acreage but that's a guess and they have been busy in Montana of late. 
    • Ecopad test – 4 wells on one pad with an aggregate IP of 6,240 BOEpd – looking forward to color on the conference call
    • 19 rigs running in their Bakken program at the moment.
  • NW Cana and SCOOP play

    •  results similar to at the analyst day
    • running 6 rigs in SCOOP
  • Deal Watch 1:  
    • added 120,000 net acres primarily in Divide and Williams Counties for $650 mm,
    • with 6,500 BOEpd of current production
    • backing out the production value they are adding to their already ginormous position at about $1,100 per acre. Would like to see a map of where most of the acreage lies before calling it a cheap buy but it probably is.
    • brings total acreage to 1.1 mm net acres in the Williston Basin.
  • Deal Watch 2:
    • Selling 1,100 BOEpd of non core production east of the MS river for $125 mm. 
  • Favorite quotes watch: 
    • "We now have excess transportation capacity in both pipe and rail, and, with additional infrastructure projects in the planning and construction stages, capacity should remain ahead of Bakken production growth,"
    • "We've recently seen a significant improvement in Bakken oil price differentials, reflecting higher volumes being shipped by rail to the coasts and the anticipation of increased pipeline capacity,"

Nutshell: Good quarter with "as expected guidance". Little new aside form the preceding comments since the investor day in October. We continue to own the name in the ZLT.

 

 

CXPO Reported In Line 3Q12 Results; Not a lot of real color in the release

Guidance:

  • 4Q of 34 to 37 MMcfepd, probably needs a little more explaining than they are giving the press release. 

Highlights:

  • Reached 50.4% liquids for first time (up from 29% of production a year ago and 46% last quarter)
  • Woodbine – no well by well or program update today since they did that last week in an update. Those results were OK gassy
  • Capital Constrained.

Nutshell: I no longer see an edge to owning this name. I continue to own a smallish position in the ZLT and will do an update piece here soon but am likely to be looking for opportunities to sell. 

 

FTK Reports Slight 3Q12 Miss; Points To Stronger 4Q

Guidance:

  • October revenue looks like 2nd strongest month for them on record at > $29 mm with all 3 segments posting gains. 

Highlights:

  • Lots of flowery language as usual. Ends by saying the challenging market is better for them.
  • No need for external capital 
  • Chemical division
    • Revenue up slightly
    • Better margins due to raw materials cost reductions
    • EOR product applied in a successful test to stop premature CO2 breakthrough (could be a big deal if they can get it to work, and especially so if they can get it to work for heavier oil flood projects)
    • Mentioned again the CnF 2.0 that can save on water, proppant and horsepower by as much as 20% … I'd love to get some real world math on that if any one has used this stuff yet.

 

Nutshell: Miss but optimistic outlook. Name probably drifts with the OIH. I continue to own the name in the ZLT. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • GDP – Canaccord cuts target by $2 to $25, rating Buy. Well that's pretty bold of them and I don't mean that sarcastically.
  • GDP – Baird trims target by $2 to $15, rating Neutral
  • EOG – SocGen cuts to Sell
  • OAS – BMO ups target by $5 to $35, rating Market Perform
  • ROSE – Citi ups from Neutral to Buy, targetted upped from $50 to $60 

136 Responses to “Thursday Morning – A Lot More Earnings”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

     

    Call plans for today (all times EST)

    • FTK 8:30 am
    • MPO 9 am
    • HK 10 am (will circle back to NOG)

    • OAS (11 am) (will circle back to ROSE)
  2. 2
    zman Says:

    WLL up 13% on the story at $47.60, benzinga saying its a $65 offer from STO and that WLL has asked a banker to evaluate it. 

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Jobless claims 355,000, better than the 363,000 expected

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Story on the possible WLL deal 

    http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E8M84QX20121108

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    SD gets love note from shareholder  TPG-Axon

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tpg-axon-sends-letter-sandridge-123000109.html

  6. 6
    brodway Says:

    so holding WLL wasn't a bad deal after all. that is if in fact Statoil makes the bid. $65 is not a high price to pay for the land involved and probably bodes well for someone like NFX which is in the same position, meaning cheap stock valuable land.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    re 6 – Don't know if it happens or not but agree that $65 for the whole co would be a good price to get them for from a longer term standpoint. Makes sense for STO to further bulk up after the Brigham buy. 

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    FTK 3Q12 Notes

    - nothing new relative to what's in the post and press release other than on the CO2 breakthrough prevention project they are simulating results in the lab for other operators in the US and Canada. 

  9. 9
    ram Says:

    Re 7  I want to send Terry Barr at SSN a love note to, but I believe they'll be OK in the long run.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    RMD or Eli,  please post any comment of anything interesting from the FTK Q&A, getting on the MPO call. 

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Re 9 – heh, me too re the letter. Jury still out on whether or not they will be OK in the long run. 

  12. 12
    elduque Says:

    Good Morning:
     
    BDI unchanged at 916
     
    Brent/WTI remains at the high side: 22.2
     
    TED remains at .22 

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    re 12 – Good morning and apologies for not getting a preview version of the post out late last night. 

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 500 Futs….Market hanging within the wide long term acceptance area  (green volume profile on right edge of chart) and above key support at 1386. Expect congestion/chop until the major CHVN is rejected with a move below 1386 or above 1407.Relative low volume areas both above and below the 1396 CHVN leave room for rapid moves when this area is rejected one way or another. Market indicators are not supportive but the market is oversold at key support with very negative sentiment. I expect a bounce attempt. Whether it can clear the now increased supply overhead is less than clear to me. 
    Chart shows yesterdays range, overnight session and likely opening levels as well as the current congestion area. Good luck…I'll be playing with my kids..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/11/08/ES_Intraday.png

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    #13…I was just thinking how right on your thinking has been on today's reporting stocks…good work ..thanks so much

  16. 16
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    looks like these levels are still intact. would be terrible to see the 1386 level violated as it may cause some additional panic selling. wait and see is probably the best plan at this juncture.

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT..looks as though my email was hacked….anyone receiving links from me from a hotmail address should send them to trash…

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    #16  Most of the lagging indicators make 1386 look vulnerable. All of the mean reversion ones make it look to be a pretty high odds bounce play….tough spot. I'm leaning with the latter until proven wrong….that's just me. 

  19. 19
    elduque Says:

    no need to apologize. Thanks for all the work. Did you sleep at all last night?

  20. 20
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    that prediction on a 10% drop in indexes back over the late summer by a major brokerage house is coming to fruition. it was however mentioned in the same note that once this correction takes place, the next 12 months should reflect a more positive outlook

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    MPO 3Q12 Notes

    Follow up well to North Cowards Gully area well spuds next week, could be 20 more well locations there

    4Q12 – will be first to include Miss Lime assets

    4th rig added to Miss Lime

    Still expect to make 4Q volumes guidance

    33.3 mm BOE as of June 30 from Netherland, saying the delta to original  is due to timing of wells included in original report (was 37 mmboe)

    Pine Prairie

    2 more strong wells to add later this week in LA in the Pine Prairie area (9 Willcox wells and 10 shallow wells (all vertica and all in line with expectations)

    Avg costs $3 mm Wilcox vertical

    Avg cost $1.3 mm shallow vertical

    North Cowards Gully area

    - noting 1,260 BOEpd last 7 days at the Musser Davis well (cost $10 mm)

    - > 73,000 bo in 2 months

    - think go forward cost will be $7 to $8 mm

    - 3700' lateral spuds next week ($8 mm) 

    West Gordon Area

    - short lateral well had mech issue, going to sidetrack, drilled in thickest pay part of the field, had good shows in the original lateral

    - 2nd shorter lateral

     

    Shallow Miocene

    - different Musser Davis well – 6 months in the Miocene with > 97,000 bo produced and no need for a frac

    Oklahoma

    - Woods and Alfalfa Counties 3D scheduled for late 2013

    - 4 rigs going forward

    Louisiana 

    $70 to $75 mm spend in 4Q12 5 rigs now going to 3 rigs I think

    Their presentation is awful, jumps all over the place. Analysts have a lot of calls today, linear makes much more sense than this call. 

    Q3 guidance – all within guidance, volumes and costs,

    Q4 guidance –  15,100 and 15,600 BOEpd

    8000 to 8500 LA

    6800 to 7100 OK

    Putting out a lot of guidance here, will have to go read transcript as he talks faster than I type which is rare and not smart on his part. Put it in a table in the press release. Maybe its on their site somewhere but I don't see it yet.   I'm going to go back and dissect this one post call.

    Q&A  about to start.  

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Somewhat odd looking opening in the group.

    OAS trying to break on out on those very strong beat and raise numbers, added another trading position there yesterday. 

  23. 23
    RB Says:

    when I was in Little Rock last year, by far my favorite was OAS…didn't think it would be trading under $35 now…but it is what it is….damn hard to time building an oil company with when the market will reward its share price….

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    MPO Q&A

    No EUR to share yet on N Cowards Gully well but > 300 MBOE  - stock moving on this comment

    Moving to horizontal approach on the west side of LA, vertical first but then HZ

    ….

  25. 25
    john11 Says:

    I'm not smart enough to figure out what they don't like about HK,  can anybody help?

  26. 26
    ram Says:

    Does the current price for WLL reflect a low to no probability for a take over?

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    re 25 – probably the earnings miss which I don't really think matters at this point as per post comment and the lack of big well results in the operations update , as a guess. 

    re 26 –  I'd say it says people are dubious, seems to be the rumor of the month every other month or so that someone is going to nab them. 

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    MPO notes

     

    - sounds like no more Miss Lime acquisitions near term, they're digesting what they have which is what I like to hear. 

    - they will break out volumes and prices by region going forward

    - Miss LIme –  they are however buying acreage in the core of their current position

    - Question about First Reserve holdings in MPO –  CEO saying investors should feel comfortable that First Reserve will sell shares, especially down here. 

    - analyst tone positive , jumping to the HK call but will circle back here in the not too distant future, not adding to our position for the moment

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    HK call

    http://investors.halconresources.com/eventdetail.cfm?EventID=121223

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    HK 3Q12 Notes

    - The 3 core plays will get at least 90% of the budget of $1.2 B

    - Looking for ways to shave budget

    - Saying they are in a good position to forecast 2013

    Woodbine:

    - Most active operator in the Woodbine,

    - noting cost savings as per post

    -  15 hz wells all in Leon County

     - 6 drilling, 6 completing

    Bakken

    - 40% of 2013 budget, most of it goes to FBIR area

    - rest in post

    Utica

    - positioned for continuous drilling program

    - 2 rigs now, 3 rigs by early '13, 4 rigs by mid '13

    - rest in post

    …. 

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    HK Notes

    - 3Q had two months of GEOI in it

    - 4Q will have about a half month of the recent Williston buy in it

    -  volume guidance boost and increase in oiliness as per post

    - continuing to hedge (9,000 bopd in 2013 just under $90/bbl)

    Q&A starting

  32. 32
    snuhart Says:

    Re 26,27  If, as Reuters reports, B of A has been retained to evaluate the proposal
    I  suspect there s a higher probability to the liklihood of a deal in the offing than is
    usually attached to the  "periodic" chatter.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    HK Q&A

    Q) Oil realizations, where in 2013

    A) Adding in Bakken, would be a little lower

    Q) Will you buy a 4th core area?

    A) no, we have enough to do with our 3 areas and hope that one of our wildcats turn into a new core in time

    Q) Utica – offset operator question

    A) Everything in our data base verifies our research and our mapping and we are highly comfortable with what we are doing

    Q) Tuscaloosa – why encouraged?

    a) oil in the samples, oil in the pits, cores look good with the naked eye, logging looks good, good porosity. Also think they will eventually get the costs down to < $10 mm, saying it loos just like a Black Hawk well (this is a more positive bent on the TMS than he has taken in the past). 

    Q) When will the stealth plays be disclosed

    A) Will continue to evaluate and buy land …. don't think they will talk about those too much this year, will maybe talk about them early next year.  Noting that they see the 3 core plays as driving the company forward. 

    Q) Joe A question – production for 2013 – where do you expect declines?

    A) Saying non core plays not really counted in the guidance? hmm. Saying the mature non core declines at 20 to 25% , saying the 3 cores will provide all of the growth

    Production from assets they plan to sell is in the production 

    Q) Eagle Ford sale

    a) process ongoing, quite a few people have looked at it. 

    Q) EFS – what's current production?

    A) we haven't given production by region

    ….

  34. 34
    elduque Says:

    GDP eventually should get some help from Floyd's comments. 

  35. 35
    Gtinvest Says:

    Ng +21, east 5, west 8 producing 8

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    HK Q&A

    - pro forma the deal 

    - $135 mm in cash at time of Willistoin close on December 13, and > $900 mm of liquidity at that point

    Q) Saying they probably won't reallocate the $100 mm in the budget or the EFS when they sell it. 

    Q) what's completion schedule for the year look like

    A) using pad drilling in all 3 plays. So pretty steady … this can make for lumpy production, over time it should level out, after early stair step due to batch completions. 

    Q) Utica infrastructure

    A) working it out before first production, won't have any delays for the first wells … might expect some improvements in price due to infrastuctue adds over the next year.  

    Q) Divestiture strategy

    a) Punt no upside properties, even if they are money makes  Will likely have another batch of prospects on the table by mid 2013 … then said they don't want to sell the mature production until they can replace it with the new core growth

    Q) Midway/Navarro 

    - Liked first one, completing second, shooting some seismic, won't drill 3rd well until they have that in house, said zones are a blanket but you need features. Anything they get out of this will be upside to the volume guidance.

    Q) Budget ?s

    A) Any leasehold will be in addition to the $1.2 B. Don't expect leasing to be a big number next year.  TMS may get more of the remaining 10%, otherwise no lease pressures so not a rush to drill the non cores. 

    Bakken 40%, Woodbine probably 40%, 10% Utica. 

    If you have success in the TMS would you add to the budget or reallocate …. sounds like reallocate.   Idea right now is to shave the 2013 budget. However, really good success in these plays coudl see the budget upped. 

    Woodbine – look for a pre 4Q operations update. 

    Call over. Subdued tone by analysts. 

     

     

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    re 35 – thanks for that. Better than Street by a touch as expected. 

  38. 38
    choices Says:

    STO/WLL:  picked this up off IB news/rumor board-do not have anything more on it:
     
    http://www.streetinsider.com/Trader+Talk/Statoil+ASA+%28STO%29+Says+Whiting+Petroleum+%28WLL%29+Rumors+%22Plain+Wrong%22/7857374.html?si_client=intbro

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EU Ministers saying they will delay payments to Greece due next week.  Market drops.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    OAS call in 15 minutes, it and ROSE holding up OK into their calls.  Taking oppy to reboot here as we are grinding to a halt, back by time of OAS.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    re 39 – what, just now figuring the math their is corrupt and bad?

    OAS call starting now, notes in a bit. 

  42. 42
    choices Says:

    HK-Z, its 2013 budget of $1.2 mil-is this sufficiently funded from cash/cash flow or will they need to raise cash?  noted that $100 mil avail if/when EFS assets sold.
    Thanks. 

  43. 43
    choices Says:

    #17-thanks, zorg, for heads up-got one hack msg.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    re 42 – funded by the liquidity of $900 mm+ cash flow.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    OAS 3Q12

    - beat target for well costs to $8.8 mm (not including the savings of having their own in house frac spread0

    - think can go to $8.5 mm or less CWC  (which would be saving $2 mm per well from early this year)

    - oil marketing – making sure getting highest price possible

    Operations update

    - HBPing  acreage – 260,000 now held (out of 333,000) – they added about 30K to my last count

    -good Cottonwood area wells

    - saying 4 Bakken and 3 TFS wells per unit in Cotton Wood and Indian Hills

    - saved $13 mm in capex with in house frac spread (high end of original plan)

    - operating costs coming down as more water and oil go through their pipe system

    Q&A about to start….

     

     

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    REXX – Opco raises target from $14 to $16. 

    and GHS cuts to Hold … reaction in this market is to take it down 10%. Pretty nutty. 

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    HK falling on a weak chart and lack of group confidence and lack of something "new" in the quarterly release. 

  48. 48
    DaveH Says:

    Any thoughts on why CLR is -5.66% after good Qtr results?

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    re 48 – started falling early, could be a call comment but I have not heard the call yet. It moves with oil quite often in a pretty volatile fashion. The numbers were fine, the guidance for next year was as expected. So I'd just be guessing at this point. 

  50. 50
    choices Says:

    HCLP-Hi-Crush Partners LP is a domestic producer of monocrystalline sand, a specialized mineral that is used as a proppant to enhance the recovery rates of hydrocarbons from oil and natural gas wells. 
    IPO in Aug 2012, 9% yield
    Z, do you have any views on this one?-depending upon the business model, might have a bright future.
    Thanks

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    and would add that breaks of support are getting treated harshly in this market, so when it broke the little range of the last couple of weeks it accelerated 

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    re 50 – Nothing specific on them other than I took a pass on them when it came out and have a sort of mixed view on the proppant guys like CLR at this point.  They have been beat up but there is big margin pressure on names like CLR.  

    Still taking notes on the OAS call

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Crude back to even on the day,  CLR acting like its falling off a cliff, very near term knee jerky market. 

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

    OAS Q&A

    - Hoping to get to completed well costs $8.5 mm for an average next year

    - LOE guidance – expect to see costs come down in 2013, sounds like some areas of easy improvement. 

    Completion method questions ? Sounds like the recipe is not changing more for now, varies a bit by area but no big changes. 

    Q) Where is new acreage located?  

    A) We've looked at all of the recent Bakken deals, and we didnt participate based on our ability to execute relative to service availability. Much of acreage added in the middle of their Cottonwood area . 

    Will you get more aggressive on these deals? 

    A) Bakken / TFS remains our focus, working acreage buys all the time

    Other odds and ends:

    - Plan on giving 2013 guidance early January.  Too really to talk about it, 60/40 of spending west vs east in the play

    - 23 days spud to rig release

     - expect 4Q differentials to tighten again. 

     - budget will gear around the number of wells, so as they get more efficient they could again drop rigs. 

    - Pad drilling in 2013? A little more focused on pads in west Williston, a little mature over there, still drilling some delineation wells on the east side. 

    Very good tone to this call  - stock barely up now due to group action but pleased with how they continue to mature the story. 

     

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    OAS Q&A

    No change to type curve

    Three Forks – in Cottonwood area seeing wells that look a lot like middle Bakken wells

    Differential – 10% differential to the basin is how they see things going forward. expect a tightening 4Q/1Q13 but sounds like not expecting tightening long term beyond 10% to WTI

    Increasingly intrigued by the lower TFS benches, have some core work but not a horizontal lateral placed into the lower benches, could be in the 2013 budget but have not decided yet. 

    Call over – one of the most positive calls (them and the sellside) of the quarter in terms of tone. Hitting on all cylinders gets over used but it definitely applies

     

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Will be circling back to CLR, NOG, ROSE next as they become available. 

  56. 56
    PackMan Says:

    REXX ??   was 14 into earnings; and report was good ?

  57. 57
    DaveH Says:

    Re: 50 If sand is a "specialized mineral" I have lots of it in my backyard.  Maybe I should spend my time digging it up and selling it rather than investing in the stock market :)

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    re 56 – yes, in my view. GHS didn't agree with me as they cut the name today to Hold as per 46 above

    My comments from yesterday

     

    The 3Q12 Numbers: Inline volumes helped by more liquids and higher natural gas prices along with very solid costs controls as LOE fell despite higher absolute liquids volumes. 

    Highlights

    • Marcellus:
      • Butler PA area activity remains robust
      • Seeing some higher BTU gas and higher liquids content, look for color on call as to thinking on extent, 
      • 30 day rates of are becoming more impressive
      • Super Rich area wells – drilled 2 but no completions to report
      • Signed a 15 year contract with Enterprise Product Partners for ethane shipping on the Appalachian to Texas ATEX Express with volumes beginning in 2014 (soon enough to impact people's modeling). Look for an uplift of 30 to 40 cents (as a rough guess) per Mcf but we should get more color on the call. 
    • Utica:
      • Brace #1H (previously reported IP of 1,094 BOEpd, now reporting a 30 day rate of 731 BOEpd
      • Next 3 wells drilled in the Warrior South prospect and will be fracced this month
      • Warrior + Warrior South prospects now total 20,000 "wet corridor" net acres.  —
    • Conventional Indiana
      • Just continuing to stay strong on these cheap verticals, says look for an update on the 4Q12 call. 

    Guidance:

    • 2012 reiterated at 66 to 69 MMcfepd (up 73% on the mid vs 2011)
    • Capex for the year stayed at $180 mm.
    • 2013 =  not yet.

    Nutshell: Strong quarter with management continuing to deliver on guidance. And with liquids now expanding as part of the profile and with natural gas prices in modest recovery mode we expect swifter strong EBITDA per unit and absolute expansion.  I continue to own the name in the ZLT and ZLT C.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    re 57 – which is what guys like EOG and SWN are doing in a bit more sophisticated way. 

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Listening to CLR replay now, notes in a bit. 

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Apologies, make the REXX change at GHS a downgrade to Accumulate – cites limited upside, lack of near term catalysts. 

  62. 62
    elduque Says:

    re HK – what price did the Ontario Pension Plan agree to pay HK? I am thinking 7.25, You would think at some point they would come back into the open market. 

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    CLR 3Q12 notes

    SCOOP – now 197,000 acres

    Bakken – soon to be 1.1 mm acres

    Ecopads – started with 4 wells per pad and are now designing 14 wells per pad

    At start 10% of wells were on pad, now at 45% of wells on pad, growing going forward

    Saves on access and site construction, saves on rig moves, cuts cycle times by 10%, (said when they do move a rig they have cut the cost this year by 17%), so, like everyone else they are doing more with less iron. 

    Average days in the lateral down 18% this year.

    Drill 5 mile long well (record for the Williston) in 28 days.   This must be a diagonal well they talked about at the analyst day on a 2 X 3 section unit.  

    Proppant costs down as much as 40% (both ceramic and sand) $120K per stage in 4Q11 to $98 K per stage now

    Lots of other little things cutting costs … looking at every aspect to cut well drilling costs

    So this means: $9.2 mm CWC now going to $8.2 mm by YE 13.

    ….

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    re 62 – agreed, $7.16 per share for $300 mm. 

  65. 65
    choices Says:

    EOG-anyone see the cmts from SocGen behind their cut to sell?
    thanks.

  66. 66
    choices Says:

    #57-descriptive sentence from company business description-maybe the term "monocrystalline sand" makes it specialized or you really may be on to something-heh

  67. 67
    irongate Says:

    I know this is a political post… and i dont want to turn this into a pissing match distracting from the value of this website…   but you would be wise to reason this into your thesis:

    I think the news/data cycle is finally going to be "allowed" to get bad….. And I am not even talking about economic revisions.

    Have you noticed that some bad news is suddenly getting reported…

    layoff bombs just starting http://michellemalkin.com/2012/11/08/you-were-warned-obamas-layoff-bomb-goes-boom/

    those are some union layoffs if i am correct

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    CLR Q&A

    - We have seen an improvement in pricing and have been shipping more by rail

    - See ample infranstructure to get oil out

    - Rig count ?

      Bakken- will go back to 21 to 22 rigs by mid year (so up 2 to 3) by mid year

      SCOOP – goes from 6 now to 9 early next year to 12 by ye13

    Latest Bakken deal 

    - They have been working on this deal for some time. It was going to be an IPO that someone pulled due to commodity pricing

     - 2 different areas – 70% HBP and 70% operated

      – calling it a great fit into their existing acreage, right in the heart of their areas. 

     - they have rigs already in the area, furthers their eco pad work, increases their interest

     - bumps capex for 2013 – calling it cash flow neutral given the strong production already there in (so adds $200 mm ish to capex but also to EBITDAX in 2013 and will be CF positive afterwards.  

    ….

    I'm watching the clock vs the minute chart on CLR … so far looks like all market action, have a pop in the stock at the 30 minute mark too but that looks like market. 

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Nothing so far on this CLR call to warrant the dip. 

  70. 70
    milepost_43 Says:

    TPLM   any news from them before mid-Dec 3Q PR? thanks

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 70 – I'm not expecting anything prior to that. Should be a good TFS result on that call. And the production growth hockeysticking into their year end (Jan 31). 

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    CLR 3Q12 notes

    Scoop – 5,185 BOEpd in 3Q, expect strong growth there in 4Q

    Exploration activity

    - deeper benches of the Three Forks – will kick of this project early next year with first sales expected in 2H13

    - We are seeing more capacity in terms of frac crews than we are used to and everyone is getting more efficient. Really sounding confident in getting well costs down to $8.2 mm. 

    - do you have the people you need?   We don't see a need to add a great amount of people,  stat on this, they have had over 27,000 applications for open positions they have advertised over the last year, move to OKC has really helped getting quality people. 

    -  SCOOP results – very encouraged by what they see as repeatable results and as they move from west to east they get increasingly oily. 

    - since the investor day, they had scaled back fraccing to let the pipeline catch up, now back to work and will add results from another 12 to 15 wells by say the 4Q, concentrated in oil fairway. 

    -  oil ratio for 2013 – saying oil will be staying in the 70% oil + plus maybe 8% in NGLs – they will start showing 3 streams next year.

    - NGL pricing thoughts

     - expect ethane prices to remain weak for several years

     - seeing some improvement in the non-ethane portion over the next 2 years, in 3 to 4 years expect to be back on a good BTU basis with oil. 

    - seeing rail buildout now that can handle over 1 mm bopd + new pipeline capacity 

    - Expansion of Seaway – late Jan / early Feb)

    - Followed by Keystone segment from Cushing to the Coast. 

    - Therefore they expect to see WTI vs Gulf Coast differential to start to disappear early next year 

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    CLR 3Q12 Notes (last one, I promise)

    -  TFS – Montana potential – core work encouraging, expect TFS activity to move from state line with ND west over time. 

    NOG and ROSE notes up next. 

  74. 74
    RMD Says:

    CLR and the last 2or 3 acq.s were both ~ $100,000/boed.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    re 74 – not sure I follow. 

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    CLR – one last note – the 120 tests of the lower TFS benches start early 2013, span 100 miles north to south and 60 miles east to west in the Williston. 

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    SPX fell all the way to the 200 day SMA and then paused. 

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    ROSE 3Q12 Notes

    Eagle Ford:

    - Gates Ranch (3 rigs running) 

         - downspaced wells performing as expected

          – 80% of locations yet to be drilled (on 55 acre spacing)

         - 3 areas in GR drilled at 55 acres or less and so far no well interference

          –  the 55 acre spaced wells look just like 100 acre spaced wells on a cumulative production time plot

    Central Dimmit Area

     - first well on their western most tract  in the play had 7 day average production of 1,228 BOEpd (that's big)

     - 122 locations remain here 

    Briscoe Range

     - First 3 well pad – could not be more pleased with results

     - 1 rig running

    Karnes Trough Area

    - 1 rig running

    - first production

    Comment on increased capital needs may be some part of weakness today (although doubtful as that was in the press release)

    - October at 41 MMBOEpd, liquids in the month were 64%, which is a big jump over the 60% in 3Q12

    ….

     

  79. 79
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    HK: Z and others. I have not been posting since I have been tending to a family health issue in Europe. Can I have comments on what most of you are doing with HK. I have been quite decimated between NOG, NFX and HK. I am overweighted these stocks and do not know if they are going to be dead for a while or if it is deep oversold territory, therefore in your opinion worth holding or adding or disposing? Thanks.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    re 79 – I'm holding HK and NOG with no thoughts as to selling at this time. NFX is more on the bubble. It's cheap but it can stay that way for quite some time.  NOG and HK have growth going for them along with higher margins.  

  81. 81
    john11 Says:

    Fyi…TPLM annual meeting 11/16 in Denver.

  82. 82
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Re 80: Thanks

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Stopping playback of ROSE for a minute

    Adding to 80

    There are easier and harder names to own in E&P at the moment. The easier names tend to be growthy and bigger. There are exceptions but for the most part, the names with solid balance sheets and growth with good margins are holding up better. With oil teetering and scaring people away from the group (not me but some people) you have a "coring up" effect, so new stories are shed in favor of older ones (that have growth).  Strong balance sheets are also seen as more attractive (with some exceptions on the gas side). Right now the natural gas weighted names are getting their first days in the sun in 4 years so you have some rotation that way as well. And if your chart breaks then look out below for a time, as is the case of HK.  

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    adding to 83

    NFX – good management operationally, not growing in aggregate to not further stretch the balance sheet, EBITDA issue out o the blue from Malaysia, but growing oil and  some day an acquisition candidate. I may sell, I have not decided. 

    NOG – noting to add to today's comments, steady eddy high margin growth. Overly discounted on the non-operated thing.  But they continue to grow an I see another 40% ish out of them next year and by then a largely HBP position. Expect them to either MLP the tail of their production or get swalllowed by someone like LINE who can book an accretive deal by taking them in, up the distribution, and not worry about being the non-operated partner of the likes of EOG, OAS, Slawson, Hess, etc. So that one I'm very patient on.

    I always DCA. Always. In what feels like a happy, green every day market I go in in 25% and 33% chunks but always over many weeks or months. See blotter. In this kind of market I might be taking 10 or 20% type chunks (so if I want 10K shares off something I take 1 or 2 K with each bite). I am not smart enough or have enough of a voice in the market place to think that from the time I buy the market will wake up to my wisdom. Also, not all my homework is done day 1 . I keep learning and then add or don't as time progresses.

    I do my homework and over time that works for me. I don't give advice as you know but I try to convey just about all that I am thinking. 

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Really don't like the daily price action in the Energy Kids… but XACS thinks we have now seen the low in the SPX for the day.  FWIW.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP 

  87. 87
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Here's what he just said
    ==================
     
    Now that the S&P500 has traded lower than 1385…and is banging on the door once again….Next question….will it trade lower or rally towards 1390… Despite disappointing increase in credit spread volatility, credit market spread action indicates that a move to 1390 is more likely than a sustained dip below 1385.

  88. 88
    RMD Says:

    FTK even GHS  said 'very dry call'.  Normal lack of specifics on CnF productivity enhancements, no mention of foreign. CnF/chemical rev ~60% or $26.5mm which would be up 13% or $3.5mm from 2Q, so CnF was OK given the industry backdrop.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    re 88 – thanks much for the color on the lack of color. 

  90. 90
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HK = lots of uncertainty + still fairly small-cap-ish = bane of the market right now.  But E&Ps (more than any other sector) are a reflection of the strength of their management teams. Usually (NFX = exception.  Good management, but have always preferred the bonds to the stock there.)  Floyd has done it once and has the talent to do it again.  That said, it was never a smooth ride… so don't expect it to be so this time around either.
     
    But Analysts with Big Brains have price targets ranging from a low of 8 (Joe Allman) to 11 or 12.  I'm content to wait this one out.  Let's see what HK gets for its EFS acreage.  That will check off one of the uncertainty boxes.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Good bit of volume bottom fishing in HK right now, but  I don't see analysts upping numbers a bunch as the results of the guidance, maybe next week, but today its really lost in the maelstrom. 

  92. 92
    crysball Says:

    NGL's   and  the  Western  Market……interesting read:
    http://www.rbnenergy.com/been-through-the-desert-to-get-salt-from-the-brine-part2

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Storage 

    Now 244 Bcf above year ago levels. Recall in March we were 927 Bcf over 

    We are now 109 Bcf above year ago levels 2.9% … continuing to make progress and expecting an acceleration of the progress when the shoulder season is done. 

  94. 94
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    Thank you all for the comments. It has been a tough 5 months for me. I do not like to sell on weakness, so I will hold.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    ROSE Q&A

    - 2 exploratory wells in the near term budget … no comment

    - 2013 guidance … mix ?    Probably 60 to 62% If we were just drilling at Gates Ranch it would be 55%, other areas in EFS dragging the oil mix a bit higher

    - 2013 activity levels will likely be about the same as this year (with 5 to 10% of capital going to new ventures, testing 2 new plays outside of the EFS now)

    - There is a lot for sale out there now in the EFS of varying quality. They see their assets as higher quality than what's out there right now, and don't see going after a larger packages due to the capex required to get them held.  

    - Seeing pressure on rig rates, number of rigs declining in the play

    - Saying 60 completions per year is a prudent run rate, don't see a reason or need to accelerate beyond that rate, and don't want to get ahead of themselves on the production marketing side.  (50% Gates Ranch, 50% elsewhere EFS)

    Call over, tone positive. Some of the analysts clearly want them to run faster in the play but they are not biting on that temptation at this time. Just no need and as they said, at 30% annual growth with a slightly higher liquids mix next year than what it was in 3Q they would think they wouldn't get more credit for it in the stock market (since they'd have to expand the balance sheet more rapidly too). 

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    re 94 – I am sorry to hear about the health issue. And I am not saying you should hold or sell.  They can go lower and they could stay there for some time. No doubt about that. Right now the group has what I'd call narrowing leadership. And that leadership is not making new high for the most part (some exceptions like a COG in the gassy area) but is largely just treading in bases while the market sorts itself out.  Headwinds against the group mainly come from the economic back drop and there is some political fear of the second term to consider as well. I tried to address some of that as overdone in the top of the Wednesday post but the market I think did not listen. 

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    WLL probably runs into close on the "just in case its true trade", I'm not playing.  

  98. 98
    Augusto Meoli Says:

    lol. Thanks for the answer. I appreciate your support. 

  99. 99
    brodway Says:

    WPRT halted trading. News pending. Anyone have any thoughts on the halt?

  100. 100
    choices Says:

    ROSE-Z, did you get any color (good or bad) on pricing issues for their NGL production?
    Thanks.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 100 –  their hedges are helping and from the CLR guys, the non ethane portion of liquids has stabilized (propane and butane and that's not really news). CLR looking for ethane prices to improve in a couple of years, ECA would see it up sooner but they are different markets for the two.  I see the ROSE falling further now, and my thought is that NGL pricing is not the issue but some analyst pulling back on the 2013 production because management was steadfast at 30% and stated in the post the Bloomberg average production number for next year equates to 35%. I don't think its a lot of analysts that are dragging that higher but I guess they could be, anyway, could someone on the SS wanted more and is taking his numbers for next year in a bit.

  102. 102
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 99:  Q3 report due tonight.  Perhaps related?

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    …or it could be just something I missed the stock moved lower after the call so I'm guessing someone got on their squawk box and poopooed the outlook. 

  104. 104
    choices Says:

    #99-another chatroom says goldman issued sell on WPRT yesterday-did not see it-PT $21, about 10% below current price

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Its a strange day when most things on the screen are red and GMXR is up 44% on a refi deal. I'm staying away. We sold a lot higher and they are going to reverse split and try and rise from the ashes but I'm staying away. 

  106. 106
    ftc88 Says:

    Z – HK.  Was it  65mm shares of HK that Encap sold?   ty

  107. 107
    RB Says:

    Briefing reporting that Iran has fired on a US drone…that's a subtle way to move the price of crude up I'd say

  108. 108
    nrgyman Says:

    Re 99, 102, 104:  From a message board post:  (not verified by me)
     
    Bloomberg is reporting that Westport Innovations (Nasdaq: WPRT) had a Q3 loss per share of 46 cents per share, versus the consensus calling for a loss of 38 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter came in at $76.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $83.03 million.

  109. 109
    Gtinvest Says:

    re 99 ,  , 104 , Very strange, Goldman did issue a sell , looked for unusual option activity, do not see any, , iiroc just issue a temporary suspension of trading

  110. 110
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #106 — bloomberg shows Encap Energy Cap selling 40.25mm HK shares on 9/18. 

  111. 111
    choices Says:

    WPRT-no official release but I got this:Bloomberg is reporting that Westport Innovations (Nasdaq: WPRT) had a Q3 loss per share of 46 cents per share, versus the consensus calling for a loss of 38 cents per share. Revenue for the quarter came in at $76.1 million versus the consensus estimate of $83.03 million. There hasn't been an official release out yet, but shares are halted for news.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    re 92 – will take a look, thanks. 

    Stepping out for a bit, back before close. 

  113. 113
    ftc88 Says:

    106 – BOP — thank you

  114. 114
    Gtinvest Says:

    choices- Is this from  a bloomberg terminal or Bloomberg tv or what?

  115. 115
    choices Says:

    #114-from Benzinga chat-sorry, should have made that clear.

  116. 116
    choices Says:

    #115-jeez, make that Benzinga Squawk.

  117. 117
    isleworth Says:

    Z- what is your current thinking on WHZ? Tks.

  118. 118
    RB Says:

    I added a token amount of HK at 5.53

  119. 119
    Gtinvest Says:

    108 and 116 – Wprt thanks , should be an interesting cc call. 

  120. 120
    choices Says:

    WPRT:  Q3 results issued from Vancouver, 15:35 EDT.
    Trading still halted.
    http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-C6376-U%3aWPRT-20121108&symbol=WPRT&region=U

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    re 117 – looking for 3Q number of about $0.78, maybe a dime more, but its a squishy number as there were some catch up numbers in 2Q that I was pulling out of 3Q to get back on a better decline rate, numbers should settle down after this quarter.   Aside from that my long term think is I will continue to hold the name and cash checks. 

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Market heading back to LOD. 

  123. 123
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Feels like a Buyers Strike…

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    BCEI after the close, should be a good quarter, should be a good shot at guidance moving up. 

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    NG largely ignoring markets today:

    http://www.forexpros.com/commodities/natural-gas

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    Oil bouncing as well:

    http://www.barchart.com/detailedquote/futures/CLZ2

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    ineedabeerthirty

    Will be back with BCEI comments after they report

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    EGY on the tape with a discovery, don't have a link yet and not one of my names but know it's one of interest

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    re 104 – chatroom eh? wow, I'm at a new low.   Wake me when BCEI reports. 

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    MCEP – Didn't see this earlier, Raymond James raises rating to Outperform

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Got asked about Pearsall , wrote this last week:

     

    • First Pearsall shale well for COG
      • (the Pearsall sits well below the Eagle Ford and one you don't hear too much about due to thoughts on cost at that depth and the thought in general that its mostly a dry gas play.
      • But while it is fairly deep, it's also very thick and contains shale and limestone like the EFS).
      • You may hear it called the Lower Bexar, only a few dozen wells drilled by industry recently as horizontals
      • This first well is in Frio County, Texas and was completed with a 1,400 BOEpd IP from a short lateral with 11 frac stages. 20 day rate no less impressive at 900 bopd. And its about half oil which is the surprising deal here. Oilier than expected, more wells underway. This is the Buckhorn area that covers much of Frio, La Salle and Atascosa Counties and this part of the Pearsall was thought to be higher in liquids content.  This could get a bit of attention today.

    • Sidebar Watch: EOG has mentioned the Pearsall as something for a later day (year) and something that may or may not be held by drilling Eagle Ford wells (it will depend on location).  Anyway, good to see someone test it with a nice rate and get that much oil back.  
    • MHR – they are next door to the east in Atascosa County having recently added acreage and now holding 5,000 net acres in the county with 40 locations.  Other names that might take note of this well: CRK (hasn't drilled a well yet), EOG  (certainly has potential and has tested it but are not talking yet) PXP (unknown), NFX (right area for it, has drilled some wells). 

    Since then PVA has said they will test it late this year

    EOG has cast doubt on it yet again (although that could be because the oil in it will likely be highly localized, and not blanket which is what they would need to move the needle.

    And an analyst has said that ROSE has spud a Pearsall well and that its one of the 2 plays they are test. I'd rather not focus on stealth plays with small and mid cap names but there you have it. 

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    BCEI on the tape with an inline top line  and a modest miss at the EBITDA line and a penny off EPS.   

    Both regions (Wattenberg and Mid Con) had some outages during the quarter that knock about 7% off production

    HZ Wattenberg 30 day rates continue to improve on the 30 day rates of the most recent wells 

    First Codell well results look as expected but no numbers given

    The Niobrara C bench test and the Niobrara long lateral are yet completed. 

    Revolver upped

    Guidance reiterated, not upped as I had expected, due to plant outage in mid-con (I had thought it would be resolved sooner but was wrong) and high line pressures in Wattenberg (impacts the vertical wells more). Should not be a problem getting to guidance. Stock may offer an opportunity on the miss in the morning. 

  133. 133
    choices Says:

    #129-Z,heh-As I mentioned previously, it actually was Benzinga Squawk, available via ThinkorSwim trading platform.  I was doing some research on reasons for Wprt's halt-You definitely are still the main man-heh.

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    re 133 – I was totally kidding, just forget the smiley face. 

  135. 135
    brodway Says:

    strange day when oil is pretty flat on the day yet oil equities took for the most took a beating. getting ready for the wash out in next week or two and then maybe a Thanksgiving day rally??? some prices are getting to oversold territory TPLM under 6 is probably  a good risk reward play. HK at 5 when the deal just got done at 7 is complete lunacy. i'm sure there are a handful of others too.

  136. 136
    choices Says:

    #134-roger, got the humor in the jab-just wanted to be a little more clear after I garbled the initial msg's above-as you have said, caution (and clarity) is required on information sources.

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