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19 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/5/12 (In Progress)”
The anti-fraccing crusade will not stop. Now we have a major Hollywood studio film called "The Promised Land" set to debut in December starring Matt Damon (and other stars) where natgas fraccing is the villain of the story. Pre-release hype gives it an Oscar-worthy rating. See here for a trailer:
And now for the rest of the story … While it is not surprising that uninformed environmentalists and Hollywood types would champion this cause despite solid evidence that they are misguided, there may be something far more sinister behind this film. One of the film's producers and major financial backers is none other than Image Nation Abu Dhabi, a subsidiary of an enterprise entirely owned by the government of Abu Dhabi–which is the capital of OPEC member (and major global oil producer) United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is unlikely to have any interest in US environmental issues, but they are keenly aware of the growing competition to their own oil and natgas production from the US due to advances like fraccing. The cynic may see this as a behind-the-scenes attempt by OPEC to curb oil and gas production growth in the US by influencing public sentiment against fraccing. For those who are not cynical, the obvious conflict of interest here might cause one to at least ponder.
Comments have been tabled to the Monday post. Comments on oil and gas as usual and thoughts on the speculative short position collapse (this time I think they really see a problem with the long held position) and some thoughts on the BDI.
S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
Notes…Uptrend intact from June. Choppy trading between CHVN at 1428.50 Minor CHVN at 1455.75. Minor support at 1449.50. Demand volume, breadth supportive. Sector rotation mixed (Tech, transports, energy lagging). Currencies supportive. Stock/Bond ratio supportive. POMO supportive until 10/12. QE3 schedule unknown. Bond Mkt closed Monday with light econ calendar until Thursday.
Thoughts…. The balance of evidence is in the bull’s favor above 1428.50 with the market stuck in a choppy range between 1428.50 and 1455.75. Excess on either end quickly rejected. Little market structure/trader commitment at any one level above 1428.50. Last week bulls did increase acceptance/value higher at 1455.75 but were unable to reach new highs. No edge here to my eye. Trimming
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
1464 Minor Resistance
1455.75 Minor CHVN, Acceptance
1449.50 LVN, Minor Resistance
1428.50 CHVN. Short term volume pivot
1424.25 CLVN…Minor Support
1409 CLVN. Support. Break out levels.
1397 CHVN, Intermediate Volume Pivot,
1386 Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
1360-86 Low volume zone. Quick moves in either direction likely.