22
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 9/21/12
Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post other than one quick one. Note the CFTC non-commercial (speculator) oil net long position moved higher, not lower this week. There was much speculation regarding the cause of the flash dip on Monday in crude prices. In the Wednesday post we commented on one talking head going as far as to call the reasoning their liquidation. With net long position at highs not seen since March, well, I have to laugh even more at their comment. Next week look for IPAA coverage, a new long idea, and a coal sector update.
In cased you missed the recent free Seeking Alpha Stuff:
And a couple of "I'm not playing this long/avoidance" calls that continue to work lower
Enjoy the weekend.
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Re-reading your latest TPLM seeking alpha piece I loved the phrase “big boy pants timeline…”
September 22nd, 2012 at 3:14 pmOT: STSI SC appeal pulled?
September 23rd, 2012 at 10:41 am
September 23rd, 2012 at 12:16 pmS&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
Notes…Low volume consolidation within a low volume zone from 1434-1466. Minor test lower to 1443.50 last week. Market building value/acceptance between 1449.50-1464. Longer demand volume, breadth, POMO, currencies supportive. Shorter time frames working off short term extremes.
Thoughts…. Market still has an intermediate bullish bias above 1397. Market becoming more edgeless with tight balanced trade only able to test lower to 1443.25, which was quickly bought. Seeing room to melt higher to CHVN at 1478.25 if demand volume increases again. To the downside I see large and relatively untested low volume areas offering little support if market selling volume increases. I had expected a test and a bounce last week. Got a very small test and small bounce that neither shook out many or tested higher leaving 1464 and 1449.50 as the early levels next week to further gauge market intentions.
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
1478 CHVN
1434-1466 Low volume area..little defined support or resistance nearby.
1449.50 LVN, Minor support , 1443.25 minor support
1428.50 CHVN. Short term volume pivot
1409 CLVN. Minor Support. Break out levels.
1397 CHVN,Inermediate Volume Pivot,
1386 Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
1360-86 Low volume zone. Quick moves in either direction likely.
S&P Futures
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/ES_Composite.png
XLE Pulled back to the CHVN at 74.80.
September 23rd, 2012 at 12:21 pmDefine support at 72.87. Resistance 76. Demand volume remains positive longer term.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/Stock_Weekly_2.png
XOP
September 23rd, 2012 at 12:24 pmWorking off recent short term extremes. Support at 55. Resistance at 58. Demand volume remains positive in all time frames.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png
Crude Oil futures… Short and long term acceptance above at 96 and 99. Bounce after high volume test of key support at 91.50. Demand volume flat longer term.
September 23rd, 2012 at 1:00 pmRecent extremes were to 100 and 91.50. Expect price will tighten back towards the middle of that range.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/Crude_Composite.png
re 1 – they have definitely pulled on their big boy pants, not enough analysts/investors get that yet.
Zorg – thanks for the levels as always.
September 23rd, 2012 at 1:15 pmNat Gas Futures
September 23rd, 2012 at 1:32 pmThis longer term volume profile shows the gradual rejection at the price/volume extremes this year as the market aligns with longer term acceptance at 2.844. 2.72 is near support. 2.89 near resistance. Volume profile and demand volume supports continued testing higher.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/NG_Composite_2.png
#7 as always..you are welcome..thank you
September 23rd, 2012 at 1:33 pm#2 – OT: STSI: Petition dismissed – Rule 46
September 23rd, 2012 at 5:41 pmhttp://www.supremecourt.gov/Search.aspx?FileName=/docketfiles/11-1182.htm
Nat Gas futures popping to resistance at 3.07 in overnight trading..
September 23rd, 2012 at 6:23 pmhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/23/NG_Composite_4
re 11 – I think you may be Novembers to Octobers there.
September 23rd, 2012 at 6:38 pm#12 oops..thanks for catching that..detele and or disregard #11
September 23rd, 2012 at 7:01 pmre 13 – I thought the same thing for a minute, had two systems reporting it two different ways.
September 23rd, 2012 at 8:10 pmOT-Gazprom-Putin's ATM might be feeling some pricing pressure-may be cause for a glimmer of optimism for Europe:
September 23rd, 2012 at 9:36 pmhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/cumbersome-gazprom-losing-its-clout/2012/09/23/adf7ec08-fcf8-11e1-8adc-499661afe377_story_2.html