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10 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 9/14/12”
S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
Notes…Low volume area(1434-1468)filled. Volume gap below to 1434. Congestion starts at 1468. Major CHVN 1478.25. Short term volume pivot/CHVN 1428.50. Intermediate volume pivot/Major CHVN 1397. Demand volume positive in all time frames and confirming recent swing highs, extended. Highest reading in last ten years on daily time frame. Low absolute volume. Breadth supportive,extended.84% US stocks above 50 day MA,78% above 20 day MA. %Decliner and %Declining volume extended. POMO neutral, turns supportive from 9/19 through the end of the month. Currencies supportive, extended$USD resistance 79.07. Sector rotation supportive, Financials/ Tech extended).
Thoughts…Market price spike filled the wide low volume area to congestion leaving unfinished business below. Expecting low volume area to be tested to the downside early in the week and bought into the end of the month. Areas of interest on a pullback are the short term volume pivot at 1428.50 and the minor CLVN at 1409. Expecting at least one more attempt at new swing highs with 1478 as most likely target. Intermediate bias remains bullish above 1397. A break of 1392 would negate these expectations.
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
1436-1466 Low volume area. Little market volume structure.
1428 CHVN. Short term volume pivot
1409 CLVN. Minor Support. Break out levels.
1397 CHVN, Intermediate Volume Pivot,
1386 Minor CLVN, Support…low volume area below
1360-86 Low volume zone. Quick moves in either direction likely.
S&P Futures http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/ES_Composite.png
XLE Big Cap energy breaking out above long and intermediate term volume base at 75.98.
Expect test of low volume spike range to get bought with at least one more attempt at new swing highs. Areas of interest… near support 75.98, CHVN/volume pivot 74.25 and far support 72.87 in case of deeper test (less likely). Demand volume is extended short term but still positive and improving longer term. http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/Stock_Weekly_2.png
High demand volume/low absolute volume price spike through resistance at 58.21. Expecting spike range to be tested and bought. First area of interest is 58.21 on any pullback. Expect resistance to be tested (62) at least once. Long term demand volume is positive and improving. A break below 54.97 would negate these expectations. I'll post individual E&P stock support areas of interest on Monday am. http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/15/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png
Happy to see higher resistance levels at play here Zorg. I still believe energy has some catching up to do given the price of oil. Furthermore, if some of the observations i've been reading is correct (arctic ice melt), we may have a pretty cold winter which should boost the price of gas as well. It may turn out to be the most profitable time to be invested in energy.