08
Sep
Wrap – Week Ended 09/07/12
Nice week in the markets, and a touch nicer week in energy land at least on the equity side. As we are getting close to the end of 3Q12 we updated the ZLT portfolio performance through Friday as we have mounted a modest recovery from the Spring lows in the ZLT A and B which are now essentially flat on the year. Both portfolios held onto roughly 90% of their core positions through the market dip and we added multiple additional trading positions throughout the summer swoon in many of them including names like TPLM where the little Bakken player continues to echo the moves of more household name Bakken player actions from 2 years ago. The ZLT C, our least traded but relatively balanced portfolio with a long term stance, is up nicely on the year. All trades for that portfolio since inception can be viewed on the ZEB positions tab at right. An update on last week's actions and important events will as usual be posted in The Week That Was section of the Monday post. Have a great football loaded weekend.
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Not sure there has been recent comment on OII, the stock seems to be creeping up and approaching new highs.
September 8th, 2012 at 10:44 amAll of a sudden there has been a number of articles of late suggesting that NOG may be a take out target because of its large land holdings in the Bakken. Some have suggested that due to its non operated structure this may be a long shot, but others believe that its a real possibility. With large cash positions companies such as CVX are going to look to be deploy it some time this year.
September 8th, 2012 at 10:49 amRe: 2……..NOG as a CVX Takeout
September 9th, 2012 at 5:47 amDon't believe NOG would meet the acquisition requirements for a CVX………….it does not meet the 'bite size' requirement for starters……IMHO
Z, re:US RIG Ccount Data
September 9th, 2012 at 6:05 amDoes US Rig Count only include land Rigs in the lower 48?…..if so should you add this in the title descruption?
Would it be helpful to add a GOM rig count going forward, since activity seems to be picking up (this assumes it is not included in the US Rig Count and the data is readily available on a weekly basis).
Are Horizontal rigs truly mutually exclusive from oil rigs and/or gas rigs? Here in the Midwest local drillers use a single rig to drill the vertical and horizonal portions of shallow shale wells and Silurian Reefs. Do all 48 states report oil rig and gas rig data,,,,,,or is there a cutoff of states with lower levels of activity such as Indiana & Illinois? Is the data derived from State Oil & Gas commissions? Just want to understand .
How much crossover exists on drilling rigs…..i.e. are 60% of the rigs drillng gas also capable (spec-wise) of drilling oil, without major modification?
re: 2
September 9th, 2012 at 8:59 amCrysball. wasn't suggesting CVX would be a suitor, but there a number of energy companies with a hefty cash position who may be pressured to deploy it as cash is not paying a whole lot of interest these days.
September 9th, 2012 at 6:00 pmWeekly S&P 500 Futures
Notes…Price extension rejecting CHVN into low volume zone 1440-1471. Little defined resistance or congestion to 1471. Minor support at 1412-16. Bullish bias above 1397. Key short term support at 1392.50 CLVN. Demand volume, breadth, sector rotation, currencies and POMO are supportive of further upside, to start the week. POMO support drops out after Tuesday. Long term bond and $USD are at short term exhaustion buy setups. Fed and multiple significant Econ reports on Thurs-Friday.
Thoughts…. Upside bias continues above 1397 with little resistance to 1471. Expecting further upside early week with all bets off by Thursday. Low volume area between 1334-71 subject to out-sized intraday moves and overnight gaps..in either direction.
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
1434-1470 Low volume area
1423-34 CHVN, Acceptance1412-16
1412-16 CLVN, Minor Support
1397 CHVN, Short term volume pivot. Bullish bias above
1392.50 Minor CLVN, Support
1383 Minor Support/Gap and low volume area below
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/09/ES_Composite.png
September 9th, 2012 at 6:17 pmXLE Weekly
Notes…Demand volume continues positive in all time frames and supportive of higher prices. High volume break of resistance (72.64) after rejecting long term acceptance (71) as too low. Upside through long term congestion with next resistance at 76.
Thoughts… Bullish Volume and price momentum with little recent supply overhead. Support at 72.64.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/09/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png
September 9th, 2012 at 6:27 pmXOP Weekly
Notes…Rejected long term acceptance (52.88) as too low, broke resistance (54.97) with positive demand volume in all time frames. Resistance at 58. Both XLE and XOP flying through weekly exhaustion sell setups.
Thoughts….Room to move to resistance (58) and above on strong positive demand volume.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/09/Stock_Weekly_2_4.png
re 4 – it includes the offshore rigs. They are a small piece and don't move around much and there is no way to pull which of those are gas or oil although they are mostly oil focused rigs.
Horizontal just means that the well is planning to drill a horizontal well which would include the vertical and the lateral. Most places use a single rig to do most of the drilling although many use a different spudder rig for the first 150 or more fee. My data comes straight from Baker Hughes which has been doing it for a long time and is very accurate. Smith Bits and other sources are out there as well but I've always liked Baker for this. You can get the data off their home page in a variety of forms going back a long time in history. As far as cross over, really no difference, a rig drilling gas wells can pick up and move and drill an oil well the next week. Same goes for the frac spead.
September 9th, 2012 at 6:28 pm
September 9th, 2012 at 6:36 pmOIH Weekly
Notes…Rejected long term acceptance (40) on DeMark exhaustion buy setup. Demand volume shifted to positive in all time frames . Important resistance at 41.93.
Thoughts..Unable to breakout with XLE and XOP last week but a big shift in demand volume has it setup to do so should positive volume continue.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/09/Stock_Weekly_2_5.png
Thanks for the levels Zorg.
September 9th, 2012 at 7:06 pm
September 9th, 2012 at 7:10 pmFCG Weekly
Notes..Clearing thick 6 and 1 month volume base at 17.12…Climbing to mid-point in long term volume base. Demand volume turning positive in all time frames.
Thoughts. Volume support below with overhead gradually diminishing above long term acceptance at 17.57.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/09/09/Stock_Weekly_2_9.png
http://news.yahoo.com/bp-nears-7-billion-asset-sale-plains-exploration-233741187–finance.html
September 9th, 2012 at 8:44 pmWLL in the Brown Dense, no real details, a little more comment in Monday post, look for them to talk about it soon.
September 9th, 2012 at 9:16 pm