18
Aug
Wrap – Week Ended 8/17/12
Wrap comments will be included in the Monday Post,
Tune in Tuesday for an exclusive Zman's Energy Brain conference call and Q&A with GEVO,
The ZLT Trading Blotter Is Updated,
The ZMT Positions are updated,
Have a great weekend.
Share and Enjoy
CLR talked about the potential for a 24 well pad in breakout session.
August 18th, 2012 at 10:26 amGEVO: SA article 7/30 may be of background value for pending CC:
August 18th, 2012 at 11:18 amhttp://seekingalpha.com/article/761591-why-biofuel-energy-corp-investors-are-so-excited-about-isobutanol
S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Expectations
Notes……Market broke above the intermediate range highs from March-May, confirming the bullish bias above the volume pivot (1397) with the late week VPOC shifts above recent range high at 1404. Layers of minor support at 1404, 1392, 1383 and 1373. Market closed at minor resistance levels (1416). Minor congestion above 1420. Demand volume and breadth are supportive of buying pullbacks and/or further upside expansion. Demand volume now confirming new highs. Sector rotations, stock/bond ratios are supportive. Currency $USD/EUR spreads are neutral. FED POMO goes net negative on the 21st and then peaks into the end of August.
Expectations…..Bullish bias to continue above 1397. Expecting a buyable pullback to support this week followed by at least one more expansion attempt above the March/May highs by the end of August. With or without a pullback, above 1416 resistance and minor congestion (1420-33) is a wide low volume area would allow easy expansion to 1440 and above with little defined resistance. 1392 is key short term support for bulls this week. Below there I'd become more cautious.
CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone – VPOC= Daily Volume Point Of Control
1420-33 CHVN,Minor Congestion
1412-16 CLVN, Minor Resistance, Friday Close
1404.25 Minor CLVN..Support
1397.50 Short Term Volume Pivot, CHVN
1392.50 Minor CLVN, Support
1383 Minor Support
1373 Minor Support
1360-92 Low volume zone. Quick moves in either direction likely.
S&P Futures Volume Composite
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/ES_Composite.png
August 18th, 2012 at 1:09 pmS&P Futures VPOC Shift. Note the shift of the multiple daily VPOC shift l( horizontal red lines from daily profiles) above 1404 resistance.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/ES_VPOC.png
August 18th, 2012 at 1:20 pmXLE Big cap energy continues to have supportive longer term demand volume. Bullish bias above support at 69.70 and long term acceptance at 71. 72.44-73.44 offering resistance. Considerable overhead supply begins above 73.44.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png
August 18th, 2012 at 1:36 pmXOP E&P Held support (52) early last week and is now trading above long term acceptance(52.74). Demand volume turning positive on the longer weekly and monthly time frames for the first time since March. Trading sideways up after being extended on the daily and intraday exhaustion setups. Room to run with or without an intervening pullback. Bias is bullish above 52.74. Key short term support at 52
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png
August 18th, 2012 at 2:14 pmCrude Oil Futures
Following everything else up. Support at 95. Resistance 97.25 with the big magnet at 98.86 long term acceptance just above. Longer term demand volume continues to improve…going positive on the weekly.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/Crude_Composite.png
Have you analyzed ATLS and APL ??
August 18th, 2012 at 2:15 pm# 7 was that for me or Zman?
August 18th, 2012 at 2:21 pmNat Gas Futures
August 18th, 2012 at 2:32 pmClose above support at 2.70..Demand volume tailing off short term but not moving well to the downside after Friday's intra-day exhaustion setup, easing up on low volume. 2.70 offering well defined support. 2.87 near resistance. 3 far resistance. Expecting test of 2.87 next.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/08/18/NG_Composite.png
re 7 – Nothing from me in awhile on ATLS, found it inferior to LINE in the MLP space but that was quite some time back. APL is a pipeline name, outside of my area.
August 18th, 2012 at 9:30 pmIs there a way to buy the vix? It's trading near 5 year lows.
August 19th, 2012 at 3:29 pm#11, Baylor, VXX, TVIX are ETN's tied to the VIX but they are very volatile in themselves- extreme caution is warranted, as they are leveraged, especially TVIX.
August 19th, 2012 at 3:53 pmUVXY is ETF on VIX futures but extreme caution is prob not strong enough for that boy-take a look at the chart.
Good luck if you jump in.
RE 11: Not directly. You can buy options and futures contracts on the vix. You can also buy an ETN which is designed to mimic short-term vix futures, under the symbol VXX. A double leverged short term ETN is also available under the symbol TVIX. Remember that you are buying an ETN of a derivative of a derivative (vix is a derivative, a measure of market volatility). Lots of problems can happen that will prevent you from getting what you expect. One of these is contango roll, where the futures in upcoming months are priced much higher than the current month (like it is now). The ETN must roll forward into those higher priced contracts when the current month expires, so your basis is now at a much higher vix level and you have no profit on the bump. Then, if the vix drops (from being overpriced on those futures you just rolled into–traders know the ETNs must roll forward and they bid up those futures in anticipation of it) you lose. So as an owner you can be right about the vix going up but lose your shirt (especially with the double leveraged version). If you want to play these, it would be wise to keep your bets very short term and know when the rollovers occur.
August 19th, 2012 at 3:55 pmSSN out with an operations advisory that doesn't disclose anything important….I've sold half my position there…may cut it in half again….
August 19th, 2012 at 7:06 pmIEA rejects call by White House to open SPR volumes to market calling oil markets adequately supplied.
August 19th, 2012 at 7:38 pmCatalyst List Updates Parts i – IV now on the Catalyst List page
http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/catalysts/
August 19th, 2012 at 7:47 pmzorg, not sure if you subscribe to Stockcharts but they just came out w/new feature: "user defined index"-requires upgrade (of course w/more fees) but it does look at first glance to be something that could be used-I will prob look at it more in detail to see if I am smart enough to use it-we will see.
August 19th, 2012 at 9:10 pm#17 thanks for the info. Be interested to hear if it's useful. Looks pricey. I've been using Fidelity's Wealth Lab for a number of years for system testing and custom indexes. In all honestly I'd have to say that the ability to create custom indexes is interesting but I haven't found a way to translate that into making money. Hope you can find an edge to share.
August 19th, 2012 at 11:04 pm