28
Jul

The Wrap – Week Ended 7/27/12

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Wrap comments will included in the Monday post. 

CRR had a bad week and we don't really mind saying we told ya so 8 months ago

and the WHX to WHZ swap has begun 

Original post

Recent followup

"The Week That Was" Comments will be in the Monday post along with the coming week's energy earnings calendar and thoughts. Have a great weekend.

27 Responses to “The Wrap – Week Ended 7/27/12”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    re #127 Cara RSI Tool
    Bath I spent some time looking into the Cara RSI(7) tool and found it to be pretty cool too, and really can't say that my %R is any better at spotlighting individual symbols in a broad list that are reaching overbought/sold levels for long only trades in multiple time frames. The only thing that I would add is a bull/bear filter. The 200 SMA is useful. An example would be to drop the buy threshold from 30 to 25 when the price is below the 200 SMA. You may find that the draw down will be less. I haven't seen a mean reversion idea that I can remember that hasn't worked better taking the trend into consideration. A sloping 50 SMA can be helpful on short term trades.
    Here's a couple of articles on the RSI that you might find interesting/useful and/or dry as toast. The first link relates to the tweak I suggested above. The second two links builds on the idea and relates to the multiple time frame RSI concept that the CARA RSI (7) tool offers. 
    http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/relative-strength-index-strategy
    http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/building-on-forgotten-characteristics
    http://www.tradestation.com/education/labs/analysis-concepts/the-rrsi-strategy

  2. 2
    crysball Says:

    Bloomberg  TV   this morning was  streaming  a headline  that  Iranian  media  was  instructing the populace   to  buy  3 months worth of food…..that  should get  some   energy  traders  attention Monday.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks Crys, had not seen that, this story is from 4 days ago

    http://www.timesonline.com/news/world/middle-east/iran-no-plans-to-close-strategic-strait-of-hormuz/article_b36e75b9-665d-5398-9319-05b2ca1e6328.html

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Iran to export 50 MW of electricity via Iraq to Syria, also helping out with water management. 

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    S&P 500 Futures Weekly Notes/Thoughts
    Last week we got pop and drop and then re-pop as the market made violent moves in either direction within the price/volume range from May. 1321 CLVN was rejected once again as too low.( Friday’s European news gap is similar to the Friday 6/29 gap on a Euro fix story) .
    Short term demand volume stabilized on Wednesday and then shot through the roof, reaching extremes on Friday, moving price easily through the long term low volume levels above 1362 and just below longer term congestion.  Seeing longer term demand supportive of attempts higher in the weeks ahead but with the market extended expecting a retest of  Friday’s low at 1361. Bullish bias above 1350 CHVN . Last week internals appeared to be rolling over, this week they appear to be turning up. Nothing I see is suggesting I should be backing the truck up to load.  Having a strongly held opinion either way seems a good way to get my feelings hurt.  
    CLVN=Low Volume Rejection Zone – CHVN= High Volume Price Acceptance and Congestion Zone
    1394 May high rejection. 1411 CLVN March Highs. May high looks pretty solid
    1378-up Long term Congestion begins to increase. Choppy topping. 
    1361-78 CLVN, Low volume zone.  Quick moves in either direction more likely
     1357   Support, CLVN last support before 1351 volume pivot
    1351     CHVN, Short/Intermediate term Volume Pivot. Bullish bias above.
    1340.25 CLVN. Slippery area. Break lower works to 1321.
    1321      CLVN, Support
    1309      Major Long and Intermediate CHVN
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/07/29/ES_Composite.png

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    XLE  is approaching long term acceptance/congestion at 71.    Near support/resistance at 69.70/72.60. Major support/Volume base at 66.60. Big cap energy short term extended but continues to improve longer term.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/07/29/Stock_Weekly_2.png

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    OIH  Looks like a tipping point in demand volume on the longer term time frames with a bust higher on the daily/intra-day.  Price tested long term acceptance at 40 on extremes in intraday demand volume with price exhaustion setups beginning to occur.  Expecting  back and filling shortly. Support in the mid 38s. Far support mid 37s. Resistance begins at 41.14
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/07/29/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    XOP… (E&P ETF)…  Consolidating above support at 48.90 and below acceptance at 52.72. Not moving as easily or with as much demand volume as large cap energy/service.  Extended short term at resistance (51.54) Demand volume is improving but not yet strong/consistent enough to break higher.  Important resistance/CLVN at 53.76 Expecting more sideways trading above 48.90.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/07/29/Stock_Weekly_2_6.png

  9. 9
    crysball Says:

    Slightly O T:
    IRAN fixes Chicken prices…………says  it will   guaruantee  supply!
    This  of course  to counter  the recent    jump  in Chicken  prices  in IRAN..
    Did   BHO  lend  some  of  his economic  team  team  to   IRAN/????
     

  10. 10
    brodway Says:

    Zorg.
    in a way this is the wildest sideways action i've ever seen. not much as far as constructive movement either way but a whole lot of action between the 1325-1385 range. some time back you had the 1386 area as a resistance point and now i don't see that in your numbers in post #5. do these numbers change?

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

     
    Crude Futs..Building value/acceptance higher.
    98.86 Major Long Term Acceptance
    97.25 Resistance
    94       Resistance
    91      Resistance
    87      Support
    84.50 Major Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/07/29/Crude_Composite_2.png

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    #10..I'm not sure how far back you're looking or if it was on the daily, weekly or intra-day notes, but the 1385-86 area is where long term congestion begins in earnest and where the market topped on Friday). Unless there's a lot of additional upside volume next week, I see this as resistance in the sense of  "obstruction" rather than rejection but didn't put into the post as such. I guess I lumped the whole area under 1378 and up as congestion. Whether I see an  area as significant often relies on the field position at the beginning of the period I'm looking at. In today's #5 it's a wag look at the week ahead and so the levels are a bit less distinct. On the day to day stuff I try to get more specific. For example on the dailies I set likely levels based on the statistics for daily ranges and  likely extremes relative to significant volume levels. On the weeklies, for me,  it's much more of a general look at the forest than the trees. Either way the significance does change depending on where the market is in it's range, the amount of demand present and the changing shape of long, short and intermediate volume profiles as they develop. It's not rocket science. There's more than a fair amount of intuition involved and so my thoughts do change. In short, the levels change as volume is distributed and their significance changes all the time based on a number of variables some of which aren't on the profile charts I post.  In any event these are just notes to myself on a range of possibilities and are highly subjective, likely confusing to many and so if they're not clear to you let me know. Often times writing out an explanation makes me be more clear with myself. Often the situation isn't clear… right now clarity is especially lacking. 

  13. 13
    bthom Says:

    Hi Z,
    Was wondering if you could comment on the recent SN update?  Do some of the IP and 30 day rates look light? Thanks http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sanchez-energy-provides-eagle-ford-151900427.html

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    bthom – sure thing, will include in the Monday post. 

  15. 15
    brodway Says:

    "In short, the levels change as volume is distributed and their significance changes all the time based on a number of variables "
    This answered my question. Thanks as always for your input. Will keep watching the volumes and action. I did want to point out that on a very short term basis (30 days or so), there seem to be more constructive trading in many equities and with any positive news on unemployment, factory orders, etc. may propel us to higher levels. Just observing your notes during the week, it seems the 1309 level the markets were gravitating towards has now become more of the 1335-1345 level the markets are find more comfort in now. This phenomenon gives me hope that we may not see the 1250 levels for now.
    There is always the risk of Europe and other external factors keeping the lid on and retesting the 1321-1341 range will certainly happen without an major shocks. For now, its a traders market, but baby steps we take toward recovery.

  16. 16
    brodway Says:

    And Zorg, i want to comment on your last note. Your notes and thought is not confusing at all. I follow quite well and find the levels to be quite useful, especially if i'm seeking confirmation to something i already suspect. 
    You say right now clarity is especially lacking. But times likes this reminds of the phrase " the more things change the more they stay the same".   
    The regression to the mean concept also comes to mind. I'm seeing a whole lot of nothing going on with a whole lot of volatility and a whole lot of speculation. At the end of the week, however, we are right where we started. I have my own intuition as to what is going on as far as the US economy (the European economy is a mess). People who are skilled and gainfully employed are doing just fine. They are spending money in the stores(not on large purchases), going on vacations, doing renovations to their homes (not additions) and spending time with their children. Those that are unemployed or have developed job search paralysis simply lack the necessary skills to find work. The work is out there and those at the helm of US companies want to hire and grow. As far as home sales, this too shall pass. The fact that the swing to renting has created obscene rental rates will only last so long. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/renter-nation-rages-191644678.html The US savings rate has been increasing over last few years and as as soon as confidence re-emerges, homes sales will follow. More thoughts to follow. 

  17. 17
    milepost_43 Says:

    font size??…..Can someone give me instructions on how to make the blog font bigger on my Dell laptop running Vista for my old eyes? thanks much….

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    re 17 – sure, what browser are you using?

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    #15..Yes..I see some constructive charts that  broke resistance, some of which I actually own.  Until the market isn't violently reversing it's self every week though, I'll only be taking the odd pot shot  from from my my fox hole. 

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    The Blotter is updated. 

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/zeb-zlt-blotter/

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    The ZLT C is updated on the Positions page

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/holdings-wiki/

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    As is the ZMT

  23. 23
    milepost_43 Says:

    18 Firefox

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    re 23  OK, try clicking on the Firefox tab at upper left on the browser, then select options, then content, then font size.  Lemme know if that helps. 

  25. 25
    milepost_43 Says:

    24 changed both "proportional" and "mono" what ever they are…no change…

  26. 26
    milepost_43 Says:

    25..when I switched back to some other sites, font has changed to my new bigger settings…

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    MP = Don't know about those settings, I was just referring to upping the point size. I use Chrome as I think its better than FF. For that there is a zoom setting to increase the viewing size. 

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®
%d bloggers like this: