09
Jun
Wrap – Week Ended 6/08/12
Wrap comments will be included in the Monday post. Enjoy the weekend.
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09
Jun
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09
Jun
Saudi Arabia production down to 9.8 mm bopd in May, from 10.1 mm bopd in March /April, according to another industry source today.
June 9th, 2012 at 9:59 amWho would have thunk?
June 9th, 2012 at 10:45 amhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/05/us/mineral-leases-give-boost-to-rural-ohio.html?_r=1&src=rechp
June 9th, 2012 at 2:21 pmOil revenue in ND prompts citizens to propose ending property tax; wow, disconnect happens quickly. (Maybe they could use their reserves to build bigger roads, increase housing and other infrastructure that helps the oil companies and its citizens alike. But why do something prudent, when you could do the opposite.)
June 9th, 2012 at 2:35 pmhttp://www.pewstates.org/projects/stateline/headlines/will-north-dakota-be-the-first-state-to-end-property-taxes-85899396968
For those who like MLP's like Line, and I am one of those. EVEP has come in a lot recently for ~$75 to ~$50. zman doesn't follow Evep closely but I know there are a few others here who do. With so many of the names we follow having come in recently I just wanted to add another name to the pot.
June 9th, 2012 at 2:44 pmThe link provides Holmes' Investor Alert-I found the comments in Energy/Nat Resource informative but maybe not news to people on this board FWIW:
June 9th, 2012 at 9:54 pmhttp://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/
Zerohedge having trouble coping w/Spanish bailout of 100 bil euros and counting…as zorg suggested few days ago after reading zero, maybe time to check level of canned rations in my bunker…
June 9th, 2012 at 11:35 pmS&P 500 Futures.. Key Weekly Volume Profile Levels
June 10th, 2012 at 10:04 amMarket continues find balance around major long term acceptance at 1298.25.
Support and resistance zones at 1253.50/1337.25 frame the current range.
Expecting market trades within this range until European and Fed policy moves
become more defined. Multiple market moving European events on the calender .
FOMC is on tap next week (6/19) in the midst of a major POMO buying sequence
beginning this week from 6/14-6/22. Recent low volume oversold bounce now 10pts below important resistance.
Volume demand remains weak/negative on all but intraday time frames.
Major Levels of Interest
1337.25 Resistance..Wide zone 1333-1340.
1312 Short term acceptance…Short term pivot
1298.75 Long term acceptance..Price magnet 1298-1312
1286.50 Support…..Long term congestion 1286.50-1320
1253.50 Key Support…Wide Zone 1253.50-58.50
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/ES_Weekly_2.png
XOP
June 10th, 2012 at 10:26 amLow volume bounce off key support/long term volume base at 45.50 last week.Next major support at 37.
Closed Friday above minor support (47.48). Market trading between two major acceptance
areas at 40.50 and 52. Expecting choppy trading between support/resistance 45.50/49.89 while
awaiting resolution of market trading range. Volume demand weak/negative in all but intra-day
time frames.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/Stock_Weekly_2_2.png
XLE Similar setup as XOP…Support/Resistance 61/66.60.
June 10th, 2012 at 10:31 amhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2012/06/10/Stock_Weekly_2_3.png
Continue to be amazed by how negative all the news is. Sounds like China is collapsing because industrial production grew 9.6% instead of an expected 9.9%. Even though Spain is rescued it isn't enough. And on and on.
June 10th, 2012 at 10:47 amZorg.
June 10th, 2012 at 11:22 amsounds like you are not convinced of the ever so slight rebound in energy. i concur that the more favorable view we had experienced early in the year in energy names seems to be eroding for now .
let's see what happens when OPEC meets next week.
#12 brodway…
June 10th, 2012 at 12:43 pmI see a few E&P charts with positive volume demand that might be attractive…. EPL, PVA, HK come to mind. Not too many out of all the ones I track. Last summer's market action is an analog that I'm honoring at the moment until there's more volume demand in growth oriented groups. Right now utilities and Govt Bonds are leading the pack. Not normally a great sign.
Still looks slippery out there to me for anything other than a swing trade.
Re: 13
June 10th, 2012 at 1:06 pmthose may be good examples, but they are far and few between.
i am starting to like the more stable action in NOG. stock has not broken down below 16 16 1/2 and seems to want to trend higher. same in TPLM
#14..No lack of "value" targets out there and I hope you're right.
June 10th, 2012 at 3:51 pmEuro opening strong on Spain bailout news…
June 10th, 2012 at 4:04 pmAdditional negatives (as if we needed more)-OPEC-maybe this is a sign that "blood is (starting) to run in the streets."
June 10th, 2012 at 4:04 pmhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/06/10/opecs-pending-bloodbath/
"pending bloodbath"-jeez
re 16 – as Bernanke said last week "a billion here, a billion there" shrug.
June 10th, 2012 at 4:05 pmre 17 – I read that earlier, don't agree with some it, I do think the author has some mixed messages in there and likes to use the words "blood bath". I think the Saudis are quite aware of recent history and this is why they are pulling numbers back. The author talks about "broken demand side fundamentals" but I don't see the numbers on that . China just cut retail prices 5% for the second time in a month on the drop in crude prices by the way. Anyway, another fear laced article with lots of trouble bubble headlines but little in the way of back up. Iran would not be the only player who wouldn't like $85 oil by the way, so the situation isn't as simple as Riyadh vs Tehran.
June 10th, 2012 at 4:16 pmZorg- if market opens up as strong as it is right now. Makes for a very difficult day. So far it has paid to fade any large pop. Also, always hard to buy something up 2% plus from the previous close. Wish it were easier.
June 10th, 2012 at 5:07 pm15: Me too! Holding NOG & TPLM & SSN. I'm in no hurry.
June 10th, 2012 at 6:06 pmSpain and China (they cut product pricing).
Crude up $2+ @ $86.50 http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html
Futures:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
June 10th, 2012 at 6:23 pm10 Camels and 20 Chickens
June 10th, 2012 at 6:44 pmAl Shababab is offering 10 Camels for BHO and 20 Chickens for Hillary, as a counter to the US $$$ Bounty of Al Quaida chieftains.
Guess they have a pretty good valuation on US Politicians????
Things Iran Should Have Done Years Ago Watch: Build an export hub at Jask, Gulf of Oman. Gee I wonder what the message is to SA in front of the OPEC meeting. How about, "Dear Kingdom, mess with us more and someday we'll shut the Strait of Hormuz and still be able to export … good luck getting much of your oil out on the Red Sea side, Best, Iran."
June 10th, 2012 at 7:06 pmChina increases import of Crude in May:
June 10th, 2012 at 7:13 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-10/china-boosts-crude-imports-to-record-high-as-prices-decline.html
Bloomberg speaking of much higher oil imports by China the past month taking advantage of cheaper oil
June 10th, 2012 at 7:15 pmre 26 – they had lots of people in line for diesel over the last several months, so now dropping prices is going to spur higher, not lower demand. The May numbers still include a bit of storage tank fill up (their SPR) but I don't see them falling off. If you look at OPEC figures for the globe, they have a 2 mm bopd jump in demand from 2Q to 3Q. They should change their forecast tomorrow or Tuesday but I don't expect things to suddenly grind to a halt on that front and OPEC does some of the best work on demand out there in my opinion.
June 10th, 2012 at 7:22 pm#20..Ain't it the truth..the pop as, it stands now, takes us right to resistance…..it'll be interesting to see where we sit in the AM
June 10th, 2012 at 7:35 pmHere's some thoughts from Reformed Broker to stir the pot a bit more
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/06/10/a-few-things-to-keep-in-mind/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
anybody have a complete listing of Enercom's London conference?
June 10th, 2012 at 8:17 pmNotice EXXI is there on June 13th.
re: 28
June 10th, 2012 at 8:19 pmZorg.
you did mention the 1337-1342 range as resistance. we may be there tomorrow.
#30…Looks like it……I'm all for a bigger bounce into OPEX and the big POMO cycle/ FOMC hope-fest. I've got some pesky naked puts that need some help.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:41 pmI'll have some refreshed levels and a couple of scenarios/guesses out tomorrow AM depending on where the open looks to be headed.
APC-summary of legal prob-Tronox-hard to believe it is 25 bil but sentiment against deep pockets of oil/gas runs against APC
June 10th, 2012 at 8:51 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-15/anadarko-was-part-of-25-billion-scheme-u-s-says.html
I have a position in APC.
re: 31
June 10th, 2012 at 8:56 pmtalking about naked puts, i have some myself. actually initiated one on Friday in SWN.
looked at the long term chart (5 years) and couldn't see how it could break 25. decided to sell them for a few dimes with only a week into expiration.
Zorg.
June 10th, 2012 at 8:58 pmit's a bit awkward to come up with a meaningful scenario when the volume isn't consistent with certain moves up or down.
Maybe the bottom is in for the Canadian oil producers; two years of falling equity prices on increasing profits until maybe the last few weeks. COSWF rally on
June 10th, 2012 at 9:48 pm#34..I don't know about awkward but sometimes there's certainly more clarity than others. What's meaningful isn't just the scenarios that come and go but the day to day exercise of creating them and putting a plan in writing to deal with the probabilities that I see, in advance. Far fewer surprises than flying by the seat of my pants. I have two or three scenarios everyday and plans for what may happen. I find that I'm smarter when the market is closed and the trade hasn't been placed yet. The trick for me is sticking to the plan…a work in progress.
June 10th, 2012 at 10:33 pmI find that waiting is the hardest plan to follow.
TPLM in with data on their first 2 operated wells, looks pretty good for a first timer! At least to my untrained eye it looks like their 7 day net production increase for the 2 wells together was over 1100 bopd, without any contribution from gas or liquids.
June 11th, 2012 at 5:14 amhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/triangle-petroleum-announces-operated-well-075403642.html