27
Apr

Wrap – Week Ended 4/27/12

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Well, this week had a little better tone to it. Interesting to see the flatter slope in the gas injection rate (as expected) continue to develop while the natural gas directed rig count proceeded to hit a 10 year low.  Note also in the table below we saw a nice little bounce in the front month and more in the NG strip last week and the net short position of the non-commercial traders (speculators) continues to decline. On Monday we will get fresh supply and demand figures.

The Blotter is updated. 

Big soccer weekend here so the rest of the wrap comments will be incorporated into the Monday post along with the "Week That Was" and the coming week's Energy Earnings Calendar. 

18 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 4/27/12”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Make sure to follow our free stuff on Seeking Alpha

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/steve-zachritz

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    and follow us on Twitter,  keyword

    @zmansenrgybrain

  3. 3
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – check your PO box early next week.  another very satisfied, long term customer.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CHK — somewhat disingenuous for "Devon Shire" to take credit for "writing" this article, when all it does is lift verbage from someone else's news letter… but that someone else is Tilson at T2… and very worthwhile reading.
     
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/535971-i-want-a-change-in-leadership-at-chesapeake-energy?source=email_the_daily_dispatch&ifp=0
     
    I think Tilson's comments are spot on, wrt CHK.  But, unlike Tilson, I am not holding CHK shares as there are too many other compelling investments out there.  Aubrey is what and who he is (the fact that the entire trading operations are run by just 3 people is not surprising — doesn't take a roomfull of people to trade — but the fact that one of those 3 is Aubrey… well… back to my earlier comments that Aubrey's best friend runs a HF in CT and he aspires to be seen as a BSD Trader).  But it is the Board of Directors who should be pilloried… or tarred and feathered… take your pick.  These people are clearly on the side of Aubrey.  And NOT the shareholders.  I don't think I can come up with an example of a BoD who show less fiduciary duty than this pack of over-paid Pocket Monkeys.  Each and every one of them.  The $12mm map purchase is all I need say about that.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    re 3 – ah, very cool, thanks much. 

    re 4 – thanks, saw where Aubrey took a loan from one of the board. 

  6. 6
    choices Says:

    CHK-board member who gave the loan to Aubrey was on the Compensation Committee-heh.

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    E&P Breadth and Up/Down Volume %
    Demand volume turned positive last Thursday as price broke from tight consolidation formed prior to
    earnings. Up Volume % reached overbought levels on Friday after 5 consecutive positive closes
    in the index. Expectation is for at least a pause. Watching Demand Volume on the index and Friday's low on the
    XOP as canaries.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/EP_Breadth_updnvol-2.png
     

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Weekly Volume Profile Levels
    Last week tested the lower limits of the lower balance range at 1354 and rallied, closing up five consecutive
    sessions into  consolidation on Friday in the previous upper balance range at 1397.50.
    Bulls are in control above 1392.50.  A volume break above 1403 would target recent highs with
    1419.75 as major resistance. A break below 1392.50 would suggest a retest of last weeks breakout levels around
    1383. Expecting choppy upside bias above 1392.50 and increased volatility below that level.

    CLVN= Low Volume Rejection Area – CHVN = High Volume Acceptance/Congestion
    1419.75     Resistance, Major CLVN
    1413          Congestion, Major CHVN
    1406.50    Minor CLVN, Recent overhead supply recedes to 1413
    1403          Acceptance, Congestion,
    1401.50    Resistance, CLVN
    1397.50    Acceptance, CHVN
    1394.50    Support, CLVN
    1392.50    MCHVN,  Thick Congestion to 1397, Minor Support 1391.25

    1387.50    Acceptance, Congestion, CHVN
    1384-86   Support, CLVN
    1383         Previous Range Acceptance
     
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/ES_Weekly.png

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg

    BG39 – your free year begins today, congrats on winning the 1Q12 performance challenge!

  10. 10
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE
         Ran up with the market to Major acceptance at 71 and consolidated below that level on Friday.
         Resistance at 71.36. Looking for choppy  consolidation. Mind the volume gap below Friday's low that works to the top of the previous range
         at 69.93.
         http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_3.png
     

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    BTU
     Closed above acceptance 29.95 and support, 29.75 on Friday. Looking to buy near support.  Would imagine there will be a lot of eyes on 31.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_4.png

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    WLT
    Looking to buy near support 64.84. Break out above at 69 would clear volume base.
    First resistance 72.86 Far resistance 77.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_5.png

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    CLNE
    A break of 20 clears majority of overhead. Looking for a pullback to buy.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_6.png

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPRT 
    31.58 Resistance/Breakout..Large volume gap above. Could see some fireworks.
    30.94 Minor Support
    29.90 Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/29/Stock_Weekly_10.png
         

  15. 15
    crysball Says:

    Natural Gas to the Rescue:
    http://news.yahoo.com/navy-nears-deal-help-avoid-cal-power-shortages-201445130.html
    Fire up those  SHUTDOWN  Nat Gas  Turbines  soon, before  S. California  is  in the DARK   &  HEAT!
    RATIONING ELECTRICITY  in S. CALIFRONIA…..who would  have thunk of that.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    re 15 – Doohhhh.  

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPRT holding the breakout in a slumpy tape

  18. 18
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPRT
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/04/30/Stock2.png

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