28
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/27/12

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It was a much more interesting first week of energy earnings than the numbers below suggest. Full comments plus a wrap of HAL, CLB and other earnings last week and next week's calendar in the Monday post.

Here's the CRR article from December 6th if you missed it. Shiny and Smooth But Costly

Here' s the 3rd article on Bonanza Creek with model.

Here's the flipside article to all the talking head arguments against HAL.

21 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/27/12”

  1. 1
    elduque Says:

    Interesting that there has been no capitulation by the shorts in nat gas.

    You would have thought by the run up, that there would have been less shorts.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    They have got to think that there is limited downside movement left but they may be OK in that there isn’t much danger of a near term move to the upside, as in they have at least 3 months probably before they have to worry about a solid move back over $3. The move higher in gas should come in advance of an improvement in supply and it will like come at the same time as we see another leg up in industrial and generation sponsored demand.

  3. 3
    choices Says:

    Three Rivers Operating Company files for a $300M IPO. It plans to list on the NYSE under the symbol “TROC.” The company is an independent exploration and production company engaged in oil and natural gas exploration, production and development in the Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

    from alpha

    searching for info….

  4. 4
    choices Says:

    #3-Three Rivers-do not like idea of existing shareholder cashing out:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120127-710678.html

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Thanks choices, seeing same, in a big way from Matador coming next week. Will look at TROC.

  6. 6
    choices Says:

    z, here is web site-appears that private equity firm The Riverstone/Carlyle Global Energy and Power Funds, a group of energy-focused private equity funds managed by Riverstone Holdings LLC is major backer-they may be cashing out but cannot confirm.

    http://www.3rnr.com/

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Re 3,4,6 – just an S1 available now, biggish production and decent sized reserves, will wait to look at it when the S1A comes out with the share counts. New public Permian player, should be easy to figure out if its coming to high priced or not.

  8. 8
    RMD Says:

    TROC in Irion county is near where Broad Oak was. BO got rolled up into LPI. Suddenly AREX’s scarcity value as a small Wolffork player is decreasing.

  9. 9
    elduque Says:

    JB- would you please take a look at GDP for me. Looks very bullish on P&F chart. Also, heavy volume the last week.

    Voted.

  10. 10
    skimo Says:

    Z, I know we can’t kiss all the girls, but this one seems me to be wearing a red dress with a come hither look. Growth seems to be right, margins look good, debt seems to be low, can’t see a short thesis, but I don’t know management. What are your thoughts? CJES

  11. 11
    crysball Says:

    CJES
    VERY INTERSTING STORY…………..as per the Q3 CC they are truly hitting on all cylinders…….zero debt, $47 million in cash………growing like a weed.

    Certainly deserves Z’s insight.

  12. 12
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #9 Eld, thank you…I agree, nice structure on the P&F breakout, the weekly looks especially interesting, I posted a chart…this break out on the longer term consolidation traingle suggests an eventual test of at least the 200 period near $24

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    CJES – not really in my wheelhouse but have been asked to look at it multiple times. Looks like headwinds to me but have only taken a cursory look so far.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Eld – Re GDP – expecting an ops update any day now

  15. 15
    elduque Says:

    thanks JB

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    Gregor on oil supply

    http://gregor.us/oil/global-oil-production-update-a-strange-future-has-arrived/

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures opening down a bit but still coiling for a move between the 1298 and 1317 support/resistance levels. Major long and short term acceptance at 1308-10. Price extended with 26 consecutive days above the 10 day MA. Breadth and Volume still supportive.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/ES_Composite_2

    XLE Holding just below resistance at 73. Long and short term acceptance at 71.
    Minor support level at 70.
    Expect XLE to trade sideways between 70-73 along with the general market.

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/ES_Composite_2

    OIH Back to major long and short term acceptance/congestion at 125. Long and short term Volume demand positive. Near support and resistance at 115/135.

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_4

    XOP
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_2

  18. 18
    PackMan Says:

    OptionsHawk on Twitter has been commenting on some energy names lately. Of note today:

    KOG
    Trade Details:
    The January 2013 $10/$15 call spreads were bought to open in Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) on the CBOE for 10,000 contracts at a $1.35 debit.

    NBR Real M&A Piece – http://buswk.co/xlmwuB

  19. 19
    Zorgnak Says:

    GDP Slowed down into long and short term congestion/Acceptance at 18.50 area. Expect support at 17.50 on a pullback. Long and short term volume demand positive.
    February $17.50 calls with 1,100 bought and 490 March $17.50’s as resistance at 17.50 is broken.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_7

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG Unable to get below acceptance at 9 for long last week.8.45 support. Long term volume demand still positive.

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2012/01/29/Volume_Profile_Weekly_9

  21. 21
    john11 Says:

    KOG and MHR out with data and updates.

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