26
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/25/11

16 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 11/25/11”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE Long Term
    Pulling back from congestion above 72.75. Pullback below 62.50 will be below shorter term value just above longer term support at around 62.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_2

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs Long Term
    Turned back at overhead congestion.
    Closed just below Major Acceptance around the 1160 area..Next Major area of
    Acceptance downward at around 1060. To my eye..volume trends suggest a probable test at least of the shorter term value area at 1120 with this years lows and Acceptance at 1060 appearing to be the next downside target.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_3

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_4

  3. 3
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude..Long Term
    Trading at 4 and 1 year acceptance at around 97. 4 year value area is 83-101 with the 1 year value ares shifting up to approx. 86-106…Selling volume trails off below 83 on the 1&4 year and 90 day time frames.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/26/ScottSignals_5

  4. 4
    brodway Says:

    Maybe we get some pop on Monday on pretty good retail numbers?

    Black Friday sales increased 6.6 percent to the largest amount ever as many U.S. consumers unleashed pent-up demand and bought for themselves.

    Shoppers spent $11.4 billion yesterday, ShopperTrak said in a statement today. Foot traffic rose 5.1 percent, according to the Chicago-based research firm.

    “This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006,” ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin said in the statement. “Still, it’s just one day. It remains to be seen whether consumers will sustain this behavior through the holiday shopping season.”

  5. 5
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI…swing position hold caution, tripped a P&F sell signal, charts updated…looking at the weekly, the next major LT (long-term)support is near $22, this corresponds with LT P&F trendline support, with the $NYMO McClellanm, deeply oversold at -98, we are on the verge of a near term rally day, so I’m watching for the possible bear trap, but anyone with anything other than multiweek positions should keep an eye here if your not willing to ride it out…

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    I’ll just go out on a limb here and call the quote about a January start to an all out 12 to 24 month fraccing moratorium in the Willston Basin as insane.

    First, the EPA rules are being written, second the rules are going to be applied to gas wells and not until 2014. What a load of manure.

    http://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/helms-says-epa-could-halt-fracking-in-oil-patch/article_fe9a3284-18b9-11e1-ba39-001cc4c03286.html

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    IMF big loan to Italy rumor

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-27/imf-readying-600-billion-euro-loan-offer-for-italy-stampa-says.html

  8. 8
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro…
    1.3350 resistance
    1.3200 support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/FT71_Euro_Composite

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Futures seem to like 4 and 7 above.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Crude up $1.40 as well

    http://www.insidestocks.com/quote.asp?sym=clf12&code=BSTK

  11. 11
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs….Opened and holding above the CLVN at 1170(now support)..major magnet below at 1157..
    1180.75 next notable resistance ….gap close area just above that at 1183.25…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/ES_Intraday

  12. 12
    Zorgnak Says:

    correction…CLVN support at 1171.25

  13. 13
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude…Trading in the wide, short and long term acceptance area around 97. See #2.
    Seems like this is where the market has staked out value for crude.
    Waiting for something to throw it out of balance..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/Crude

  14. 14
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT
    Dave H pointed out the well defined range in GDX should it go lower from here…
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/27/Stock_Composite_2

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    To echo JB’s observation…
    A number of significant Advance/Decline, TRIN, High/Low and Tick studies are signaling a bounce is due. In addition daily Demark and Range price studies support the probability as well.
    Options volatility and Put/Call studies were not flashing a great deal of concern over this months correction….
    Whatever that means, if anything, is over my head.
    Any option types have any wisdom there for me?

  16. 16
    brodway Says:

    Zorg, i’m certainly no option maven, but one thing i noticed in the selloff from late October to late November (1280 or so to 1157) has been all low volume trading.

    There had been days, especially in the beginning of this week where individual equities were down 6-10% per day when the general markets were down 2%.

    This erratic move in equities may have played a role in option pricing.

    The exceedingly high volatility in the markets will continue to account for awkward option trading as the markets are always at risk of moving 10% at any given time on news coming from Europe, Asia or anywhere else in the world.

    It seems that the long term buy and hold strategy is a theme of the past. Until investors and asset managers feel safe enough to keep their money invested in the markets we will continue to see these high beta moves.

    There are a number of analysts that believe wer are in a trading range of 1100-1250 on the S&P and we need to really break above the 1250 number convincingly to get any meaningful inflow of capital. I’m starting to believe that this may be true.

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