31
Oct

Monday Morning – Natural Gas Supply Slide Show Plus Energy Earnings Week 3 Preview and the Week 2 Wrap

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Big week for ecodata with ISM early in the week and Payrolls on Friday being the obvious highlights along with the G20 summit, also at the end of the week. I'd expect less enthusiasm in the markets until the end of week numbers and European rumors play out. Given the recent rally in the markets, any disappointments are likely to present those dip buying opportunities everyone is suddenly writing about taking advantage of between now and year end. I'll be looking at taking some profits in trading positions and perhaps to writing some covered calls before Friday. In today's post please find a look back at last week's energy earnings reports and a look ahead at this week's calendar.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST, forecast = 58.4%, last read was 60.4%.

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 11/1: ISM (F= 52,1%, last read 51.6%), Construction spending, motor vehicle sales (F = 13.3 mm),
  • Wednesday 11/2: EIA Oil Inventory Report, ADP employment, housing vacacies, FOMC announcement, Ben's press conference,
  • Thursday 11/3: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, jobless claims (F = 400,000), productivity, unit labor costs, ISM Services (F = 53.5%, last read 53%),
  • Friday 11/4: Nonfarm payrolls (F = 90,000, last month was 103,000), unemployment (F= 9.1%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Commodity Watch
  2. Natural Gas Supply Slide Show
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - SSN, Energy Earnings Week 2 Wrap, Energy Earnings Week 3 Preview, EPL
  4. Odds & Ends


Holdings Watch will be included again in tomorrow's non-free post

Commodity Watch

Crude oil (WTI) closed up7% last week at $93.32 last week while Brent remained essentially flat in the face of rising equity markets and a falling dollar as the long Brent / short WTI trade was partially unwound This morning crude is trading about $0.75 lower as the dollar recoveries on Japan's entry into the forex market.

  • Libya Watch: Exports seen rising to 350,000 bopd by November
  • Petrobras Watch:  PBR CEO says emerging country oil demand to continue to climb despite eurozone crisis.

Natural gas closed at $3.92 on Friday, up 2% on the week after EIA reported yet another record injection but the weather forecast pointed to the noreaster that hit this weekend. That storm, though good for gas demand for heating was bad for gas demand for electrical generation as ice took over 2 mm consumers offline. This morning gas is trading flat.

  • Tropics Watch: Rina headed south and weakened. No threats as the season winds down.

Natural Gas Supply Slide Show

  • Nothing here for natural gas bulls again.
  • Production hit new high of 65.3 Bcfgpd for August (latest available data)
  • Louisiana hit a new record which was a bit unexpected
  • "Other States" also hit a new record as did the "Other States" rig count and at this pace I would expect this slug of gas to overtake Texas within the next few months.
  • The numbers would have been worse were it not for some processing plant maintenance in Wyoming that pulled that state's volumes down temporarily.
  • On to the slide show ...
.

Stuff We Care About Today

Energy Earnings Weeks 1 and 2 Wrap Table - these wraps will be kept on the Calendar tab

Energy Earnings Calendar - Week III and Thoughts

Week 3 Thoughts:

TGP - I don't own it but am taking more of an interest in LNG shipping these days and especially in the long term future, so just gathering some thoughts for now

VQ - I don't own it. Want to hear management's comments on their own low ball buyout effort

FST - I don't own it, keeping tabs

EOG

  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Looking f0r a pretty good quarter with strong results from the Eagle Ford
  • Would not expect a big beat and I don't play this for the CFPS results
  • Thinking they may finally put a reserve number on their EFS position, beyond the current "captured: reserves figure
  • Hoping to get color on Niobrara and Wolfcamp wells
REXX
  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Expecting another strong quarter with production at the top end of the guidance range; highly likely to see them reiterate strong exit for the year or even boost the current planned strong exit rate.
  • Looking for results of their first Utica well, the Cheeseman #1 ... this should be a dry gas well
  • Marcellus - expect 2 to 3 more operated and 4 more non-operated well results on the call
  • Niobrara - should hear about 2 more wells ... less of a focus for now, would like to hear them talk about OK results and a monetization in the works here.
SGY - I don't own it, want to hear about their own onshore base ultra deep program
.
PXD - I don't own it, just keeping tabs
.
PQ - I don't own it, should be another strong quarter with interesting highlights, want to hear more on their Miss Lime play
.
GMXR - I own it as the only position in the ZLT that is entirely trading, not a core play as I'm not convinced they can successful meet their goals or transition from being a gassy Haynesville player to an oil Williston player. Looking for results from their first operated well in the Williston, the Wock well, a Three Forks test on the edge of the Lewis and Clark fairway.
.
CLR - I don't own this expensive Bakken player; just keeping tabs and they do give good color on costs, takeaway capacity, operating costs and drill cost trends.  Hoping to hear results on their Herness 15-22 and Cochrane 1-11 wells, both close to SSN's acreage in Montana.
.
GDP:
  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Expecting oil production to go from 8% last quarter to over 12% of total production this quarter
  • Expecting 6 or 7 more Eagle Ford Shale wells
  • and 2 Buda Lime wells
  • Expecting reiteration of past guidance, maybe a tightening of the current 15 to 25% range towards the 20 to 25% range.
AREX - I don't own it but am endeavoring to learn more
.
WLL:
  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Possibly get results on the first 60 stage well in the Sanish Field (actually that will be the biggest in the Williston Basin to date)
  • Looking for comments on some non-Williston plays - Should get some well results from both theWolfbone and the Niobrara.
  • Looking for results from their French 21-30 well as it is close to SSN's acreage in Montana.
CHK
  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Expecting a Utica JV to be announced this week, with this release or at the latest before Thanksgiving.
  • Should get more Utica drilling results on this call as well
  • Looking for them to talk about their lack of success in the Niobrara and the process to divest that asset
  • Looking for them to finally talk ab0ut what it is they are up to in the Williston
GST - I no long own it but am keeping tabs
.
KOG:
  • I own it in the ZLT
  • Looking for well results from a couple of Smokey area wells---, these could be just as good as the Koala results
  • Looking for an update on thoughts on the Grizzly area wells but no production numbers just yet
  • Looking for commentary on their plans to pay for the recent acquisition and to clean up the revolver as they never leave the revolver drawn for long ... so either debt or equity and if I know Lynn he's thinking to tap all us equity types again.

Other Stuff

SSN Operations Update

  • Defender well ready for fraccing on Nov 7
  • Spirit of America – failed in first side track effort, trying again.
  • Australia II (Montana Bakken test) – pad complete, spudder rig setting surface casing, main rig arrives Nov 2
  • Also pre lim numbers on the quarter with 3Q oil production up 18% and gas up 4%.
EPL Acquires Producing Properties
  • To Pay $80 mm for properties in Main Pass 296/311
  • Current production of 900 BOEpd, or about $89,000 per flowing BOE
  • Estimated reserves of 2.6 MMBOE or an acquisition price of $31 / BOE
  • 96% oil
  • P&A liability is only $4mm
  • Funded out of cash
  • Nutshell: Both the flowing barrel and the $/BOE of reserves  figures appear high for offshore assets. Until you note this is EPL bulking up on assets it already has working interests in and on which it has already has identified additional prospects. The properties represent just under a 10% boost to current production and are almost entirely oil and being acquired with cash they will be immediately accretive to CFPS.  Recall that EPL is already outspending capex by a wide margin and that bolt ons of this nature are their bread and butter way of growing, first via the current volumes them selves and then via recompletions for bypassed pay and eventually via untest fault block drilling.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • OAS - SunTrust ups target from $30 to $38

Interesting Reading Watch:

127 Responses to “Monday Morning – Natural Gas Supply Slide Show Plus Energy Earnings Week 3 Preview and the Week 2 Wrap”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    WindRiver — should hear mid- to late-week about the results from their Phat City well. Drilling went well… good crew. No clue yet as to results. CEO said it will take “10 days” to test… may hear by Wednesday.

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..10/31 8:30am ..S&P Futs 1266.75 Notes To Myself. A sustained break below 1266.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable..
    Immediate resistance at 1270.50. 1241.50 is support/gap close.
    Additional support at 1229.75 and 1217.
    Looking for consolidation/short term pullback above 1241.50.

    CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
    1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
    1294 Resistance, CLVN
    1270-75 Resistance, Wide/Deep CLVN
    1241.50 Support, CLVN, Gap Close
    1230 Minor Support, CLVN
    1217 Support, CLVN

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/24/ES_Composite

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP

    Today’s post is free to the world so please share the link and say nice things.

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SGY = Smart Old Energy Broker thinking he will go long the stock if it whiffs the quarter. Haven’t followed this name in a long time. But SOEB is always worth listening to….

  5. 5
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Uh-oh… “free to the world”… better tone it down a bit. Thx for the warning!

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    BOP – happy to have you around today, you just be yourself, lol.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    SGY – may have results on their Ultra deep well, have been starting to pay attention a little more there. Used to follow quite closely a decade back but that was a pretty different company. EPL bought from them this morning

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    UN says 7 billion people on planet. Hopefully most of them don’t want to drive.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    SP Fut off 15, wonder how quickly they buy this dip.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — Happy Birthday!!

    Bet it was pretty cool as a kid… didn’t have to think twice about your birthday part theme.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    re 11 – thanks, was a bit confused by all the people dressing up like freaks in those early formative years though.

  13. 13
    elduque Says:

    TED spread continues to climb now at 43.45

    BDI was down on Friday.

    HYG looks like it is going to open up down.

    Happy birthday Z-

  14. 14
    tomdavis12 Says:

    CAM Price target cut @ JPMorgan. $70 – $64. Bet Joe is dressed up as a bear today.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    KOG – pretty decent chance they do an equity deal this week, or a senior offering.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Zorg – good to have you back, all the talking heads in buy the dips mode now.

  17. 17
    ram Says:

    Happy Birthday Zman.

  18. 18
    tomdavis12 Says:

    NBR indicating higher. Upgrade & mgmt change.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Tom – haven’t yet looked at the CAM quarter from an outlook perspective, would have guessed it to be strong. Bookings looked good, they beat on the quarter, what did people not like?

    Thanks ram

  20. 20
    milepost_43 Says:

    XL pipeline…heavy hitters lined up for new lawsuit….am expecting delays delays delays and costs going UP….Sierra Club, National Wildlife Federation, Natural Resources Defense Council and Nebraska Wildlife Federation- – – Four environmental groups are preparing a lawsuit that alleges the Obama administration has not adequately studied how the proposed Keystone XL oil sands pipeline would affect several endangered species. http://tinyurl.com/3sfupyp

  21. 21
    Zorgnak Says:

    #16 Thanks….and a happy birthday to you.

  22. 22
    Zorgnak Says:

    I’m open to hearing what stocks might be best to buy/chart on a pull back. I’ve been out of the loop..just now reading Z’s comments over the last week or so

  23. 23
    tomdavis12 Says:

    19 Z don’t have access to the JPMorgan comments. Will check around.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    re 20 – yeah, still bet it happens but delayed.

    Saw there was another green power BK over the weekend, fed loans to Beacon Power, only $43 mm, gone. It might be a good idea to vet the financials of these things.

    Very low volume, fairly sizable drops this am. NOG off a buck on 20K shares.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    re 22 – I’m not chasing much, just thought it funny that some popular tv talking heads were saying how much they hated this market at the beginning of October and how they are now saying buy the dips. I like the whole buy low sell high thing but I guess that’s just me.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    but I don’t disagree on the dips thing either, just been in that mode for quite some time. I think the market recovers some of this today and then we react to ISM and then go flat or down into Friday. G20 has a lot of work to do to make everything “well”. And people are likely to take some chips off the table into that.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom – just curious.

  28. 28
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…15pt gap down…probabilities don’t support a close today

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Man do we have a big week coming up, not just for the reporting names but for some with events like SSN, WVR, and GMXR not for the quarter but for the Wock well.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    28 – it’s gotta close, I have to take the interns out for candy at some point.

  31. 31
    Zorgnak Says:

    Relative volume light on the open in the
    E&P world
    TPLM WPRT REXX
    Red with higher than average vol

  32. 32
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Noticed that NOG was the #1 short position on the AMEX in Barron’s this weekend as of 10/15. Have you seen any more negative comments from Herb’s Pack? I am not in the camp that shorts are either stupid or foolish. Maybe misinformed. It is unusual for them to not defend themselves.

  33. 33
    Zorgnak Says:

    TPLM..pulling back into a low volume area..possible support 5.60 +-
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Stock_Composite

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    RE 32 – Short interest has been coming off there. No, nothing from that group. I don’t think they are stupid or foolish either, didn’t ever say that other than the original writer has no concept of DD&A accounting. I do think they are in this case deceptive and manipulative.

  35. 35
    mimster90 Says:

    Happy Birthday zman, to you and my daughter Tabitha.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    re 35 – back at her!

  37. 37
    tomdavis12 Says:

    34 Your assesment of situation has been spot on. I am just surprised that they haven’t been more aggressive at defending their position. I see a fraud blog is piling on GMCR today.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    re 37 – I think they’d hammer on if they had anything, when wrong they don’t apologize and reverse, they just fade away.

  39. 39
    Zorgnak Says:

    NOG…If and When 22.50 looks interesting

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Stock_Composite_2

  40. 40
    jim bob is my jesus Says:

    Cnbc, citing ‘traders,’ saying that MF Global-related unwinds are causing ‘disclocations’ in energy commods today

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    re 39, 40 – thanks.

    Quiet market today.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – BEXP

    Remainder of trading position sold at $36.42 as no counter offer has materialized.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    No rush to redeploy, probably just core up in a few ZLT names and hold the rest in cash for a time.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    MF Global rings in at #8 on the bk list, but its a distant 8th to say Lehman

    http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/10/31/mf-global-likely-among-the-10-biggest-bankruptcies-ever/?mod=e2tw

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dallas-fed-business-index-improves-in-october-2011-10-31?link=MW_home_latest_news

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – EPL

    EPL – Added more to the Core position at $14.17, off a couple of percent today in a weak tape. Nice acquisition announced this morning, still expect them to strongly underspending cash flow going forward on the operations (ex acquisition) side of the business. They report their 3Q Nov 3. Expecting slightly lower sequential production but a new high for oil as a percentage of total volumes and for them to point to strong 4Q volumes with the highest levels seen in a year and to be oilier still.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZLT – TPLM

    TPLM – Added to the trading position for $5.64, earnings should not be out for another month but they remain cheap, the stock is off 7% today on the MF Global bankruptcy market discombobulation/Japanese Yen manipulation/profit taking and they could get results on one important non-operated well as early as next week when OAS reports.

  48. 48
    Zorgnak Says:

    EPL
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Stock_Composite_3

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Thanks Zorg – how’s that look then? I see no bar today, just the point of the current price, do you think it is done retreating for the next few weeks, market forces/considerations aside. First piece was in the $12s, second in the high $14s while you were out, just averaging down here. Oily fundamentals of the present make this a cash generating machine and it is still very cheap.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Crude only off a buck now, thinking its comfy in the $85 to $95 range, I’m more content with it in the lower half of that range, just fine for our names. I did see the former head of the IEA beating the tired old drum that current “high” oil prices will hurt the economy. I would counter that if you take them much lower, like to $70 you will see the US slow down, you will see the oil rig count come off and you will see a very slight retrenchment in the oil growth we have seen of late. This will mean lower volumes going into Cushing and you are starting to see that already so it will have the potential to then send prices quickly higher. You will also, at WTI $70, see the OPEC basket price and Brent back into double digit land and as that happens you will see OPEC site weaker demand that must be causing the price decline and therefore a need to ratchet back its production. Price fixes price.

    EOG giving back a little after a fairly strong run and in front of numbers.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Simmons making a good point that Industrial natural gas demand hit its highest level for the month of August in the last 6 years. Cheap gas prices certainly helped demand out.

  52. 52
    bill Says:

    epl production

    is this indicative of a good qtr coming

    http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4444&mn=62&pt=msg&mid=11094361

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    OAS down 6%, could apparently care less about the SunTrust $8 tp hike to $38.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    re 52 – Thanks but not enough of their assets to judge. Those look strong but only about 10% of the pie. I’m not looking for a big beat on production this quarter, just more oily progress.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    LINe – quietly flat on the day, at $39, within a stone’s throw of the all time high. I like getting quietly paid to wait in things that are near their highs as they just plunk along, growing the production base both organically and inorganically, maintaining a strong hedge position to maintain the ability to pay nice distributions and bump them up every other quarter.

  56. 56
    Justin Says:

    KOG – seems to me to be an ideal candidate for call writing? At the higher end of the value scale and near another equity deal. Thoughts Z?

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Justin – yes, planning on doing that mid week this week, there and in a few other names. Was thinking the $7.50 Nov’s for $0.30 on the remaining trading shares. Just a little lunch money.

  58. 58
    elduque Says:

    TED spread still widening up to 44.69

    BDI down another 50 to 1965

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    I don’t really expect them to say anything that further jacks up the stock later this week on the 3Q report, unless its good well results (which could happen) but Lynn could also drop another deal on us. I would expect that with what he has coming down the pike that any reasonably sized equity deal will be a buy the deal and buy more event with the shares trading higher following the offering in fairly short order.

  60. 60
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: LINE starting to look at a c-corp acquisition I am hearing. Good results from Atoka Wash. Since NG not likely to spend capex there.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    NOG performing relatively better than the peer group.

  62. 62
    Zorgnak Says:

    #49 EPL
    Looks good at the level shown by the horizontal bar in the 14 or lower area. The price is just a snap shot of the price at that time. EPL volume is scattered about at various price levels so I had to fudge the chart a bit to get a reading.
    Demand tailing off a bit..expecting a test below 14

  63. 63
    Zorgnak Says:

    EURO… below last weeks breakout point at 1.3960..next support at 1.3810

    vhttp://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Euro_Composite

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom – listening to some replays today including LINE’s.

  65. 65
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude…Tested immediate support at 91 this am..holding acceptance at 92.
    94.50 Resistance
    88.50 Far Support

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Crude_Composite_2

  66. 66
    Zorgnak Says:

    EURO… below last weeks breakout point at 1.3960..next support at 1.3810

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Euro_Composite

  67. 67
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Another way to phrase my earlier comments re NOG is that I am very surprised that the shorts have not bought back more shares or put up some more smoke screen comments. I guess the position could be 2MM less short by the time the 11/1 numbers come out. I forgot when do those short numbers normally get released.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    re 67 – I hear ya, the 10/15 numbers came out last week so maybe 10 days after the date they reflect, as a guess, and the companies get them a bit sooner than the free numbers for the public. I know some shorts are still waiting on the K which won’t be out until I’d guesstimate March.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Offtopic thirty, grabbing lunch.

  70. 70
    Zorgnak Says:

    My futures broker can’t trade today…..MF clearing..glad I didn’t have a position on..wonder how that would have been treated????

  71. 71
    choices Says:

    OT-MF Global-Gasparino did a real number on Jon Corzine-booted from Goldman, made millions, made huge bets on Euro sovereign debt, stands to make $12 mill severence after BK.

  72. 72
    choices Says:

    Welcome back, Zorg;

    Happy Birthday, Z.

  73. 73
    tomdavis12 Says:

    A BAC UK oil services analyst Fiona Maclean is recommending Petrofac (70% of revenue from middle east). Thinking earnings will double over the next 5 years. Guess there are some service bulls out there.

  74. 74
    Zorgnak Says:

    #72..thanks

  75. 75
    Jill Miller Says:

    Newbie to the site question. What’s the difference between the Zman Long term portfolio and the Long Term Portfolio C??

  76. 76
    elijahwc Says:

    VQ: Noticed the mention of the CEOs low ball go private offer. Marquez owns 50.3% of the company. Why hasn’t OXY supplied the counter offer or gone directly to Marquez?

    At under $10 this becomes interesting.

  77. 77
    skimo Says:

    TAT the only joy in Mudville today

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Jill – welcome aboard. The ZLT is comprised of a number of portfolios I run. The ZLT C portfolios are a couple of small education savings accounts I started for the interns 10 months ago. They are infrequently traded due to their small size, truly long term holders and what I would/did do with a small piece of money. Just investing them initially took the down several percent on transaction fees.

  79. 79
    Zorgnak Says:

    OT MF effect on traders
    http://www.businessinsider.com/eric-wilkinson-interview-on-mf-global-2011-10

  80. 80
    Jill Miller Says:

    Thanks Zman – got it

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Jill – thanks again, apologies for the delayed replay, had to go get one of those giant inflatable mummies for the interns. Site kind of sleepy at the moment, with this market I’m not surprised. Ask questions if you’ve got them.

    Levels look pretty good to me … this is a soft pullback if I’ve ever seen one. Pleased with the bounces of the early lows, just a little profit taking.

    Re MF Global and treatment of trades, if you were long you’d likely be stuck for a bit, seen that happen before.

  82. 82
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futs…70% chance HOD in for the day

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    CNBC – headline, crude prices drop … what, dime? Please.

  84. 84
    elduque Says:

    Both crude and nat gas now positive

  85. 85
    Pati Says:

    Happy Birthday, Z!!!

    And great Fall weather for your Interns’ trick or treating.

  86. 86
    RMD Says:

    QEP comment fwiw:
    ‘If you look at a typical Bakken well at $9.5 million at $80 oil, it’s generation a low 20% IRR.’

  87. 87
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude….Volume looks good. Trading above long term and short term acceptance. Minor Resistance at 93.50, Resistance 94.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Crude_Composite_3

  88. 88
    elijahwc Says:

    FTK: Debuting the new world order today…suggest you read

    http://www.flotekind.com/Themes/Default/Content/Images/Flotek-Debuts-New-CnF-20111031.pdf

    and see

    http://www.flotekind.com/?CnFTM

  89. 89
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Did buy much NOG today. Just trying to do my part. 🙂

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    re 86 – depends on where ya are. Not at all what KOG, BEXP, OAS are saying.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    re 89 – heh, heh.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    RMD – I’d consider the source

    28% of 2011 budget to the Haynesville
    13% to the Bakken
    Hmmm. Looking at their presentation they must be thinking that the long lateral $9.5 mm wells are not getting them the top of their own EUR range of 750 mmboe

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    They have got to be kidding:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-to-hold-referendum-on-new-eu-deal-report-2011-10-31?link=MW_story_latest_news

  94. 94
    RMD Says:

    FTK CnF video sounds good, Eli, 87 – 200% increase in oil production cited is ‘noticable’.

  95. 95
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude pretty impressive given the currency swings….

  96. 96
    milepost_43 Says:

    47…Yahoo shows TPLM earnings on Nov 9 but talked to IR and she said mid-Dec..

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Yeah, they are a month off of being a calendar reporter.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Re 87 – nice video, would like to get Wyoming or another’s opinion on that lab study. No pressure in that lab test. His comments on the field test means a lot more to me.

  99. 99
    elijahwc Says:

    #94 game-changer if their clients competitors take notice. And patented which is not usually the case with fluids.

  100. 100
    choices Says:

    #90-Z, Do you recall what NFX well costs were recently reported-I thought they were also high.

    Thanks.

  101. 101
    john11 Says:

    SM earnings tonite any thoughts or expectations?

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    re 100 – $11 mm. They called it a fully loaded cost and it assumed to some troubles.

    John – nothing of value from me, not there, still slowly getting to know the story, sort of missed the dip I’d say so will circle back on future weakness.

  103. 103
    elijahwc Says:

    #98 Z the first part of the video is “show and tell” but the second part is clearly client experience through “field trials’.

    e.g. the words “likewise in the field clients have achieved as high as 100%”, and “In recent field trials conventionally frac’d wells yielded 80bbls vs our greenCNF fluids yield 150-200 bbls.

  104. 104
    choices Says:

    T-bond move up huge today

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    re 103 – yeah, I know, I just want the client names.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    APC and CRK on the tape, comments in the morning.

  108. 108
    Zorgnak Says:

    Euro….at support 138.10 …acceptance/magnet below at 136
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Euro_Composite_2

  109. 109
    DaveH Says:

    PER announced their first quarterly dividend was USD 0.722746. That works out to 14.7%/year if they can keep up that rate.

  110. 110
    Zorgnak Says:

    #30…lol just saw that one

  111. 111
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P closing gap at 1241.50
    next up 1229.75
    significant support at 1217

  112. 112
    DaveH Says:

    In post #2 Zorg said “A sustained break below 1266.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable..” Futures currently at 1242.00. The crystal ball working well.

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    #112…Nice when it work.

  114. 114
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE….Large cap energy got hit harder than I was looking for. Needs to hold 70 area to avoid false breakout and return to previous trading range.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/31/Stock_Composite_4

  115. 115
    andy Says:

    dave h – PER div was for 5 months not quarterly. makes yield close to 9%.

  116. 116
    Justin Says:

    On Snickers high as I catch up on posts. Thanks gang and happy bday Z.

  117. 117
    PackMan Says:

    Happy Birthday Z !

    i hope the interns shared some candy with you.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Thanks guys

    Ugly open on tap over Chinese PMI and further reaction to the Greek referendum on their debt deal.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    The Tuesday post is up

  120. 120
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What XACS has to say about this morning’s open
    =====================================

    The decision of Greece’s political leaders to abdicate their role as the nations leaders has the CDX IG17 Index opening up as much as 10bps wider. A 10bps widening in credit spreads normally indicates an S&P500 sell-off of at least 50pts. Although we remain unconvinced that a Greek bankruptcy is a Lehman type event, this latest gambit by Greece’s political leaders is likely to cause the French Government a tremendous amount of embarrassment. We also find it difficult to believe that ANY European politicians will risk extending another olive branch to Greece in this crisis. GREECE is now on its own, just like MF Global was last Tuesday.

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    More from XACS (he’s mad this morning!)
    =======================================

    Credit opened the day 10bps wider, sat there for a while, and has started to recover a decent portion of this morning’s weakness. The CDX IG17 Index is now indicating an S&P opening of -30, and we expect credit to weaken again. Greek political leaders have overplayed their hand, and they better be prepared to get very good at coming up with reasons why they can not come to the phone when global political leaders call. Greece’s political leaders now appear to be incompetent buffoons, probably sealing their political fate and jeopardizing political leaders who supported them through the recent turmoil. We now believe that a Greek default is more likely regardless of how the Greek’s vote. We expect that Greek will default, or that they will announce the intention to default, by the end of the year. Although we hate conspiracy crap, we believe that European regulators should publicly announce a investigation into the trading activity of Greek politicians and Greek banks….including CDS trading. The decision by Greek leaders does not make ANY LOGICAL sense unless they are self-dealing in some form. They have lied before….they will do it again.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    BOP can you put these on the Tuesday post or do you want me to?

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    I’ll do it now

  124. 124
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..11/01 8:00am ..S&P Futs @ 1219.. Notes To Myself.
    Futures bouncing off of the 1217 Support area atm..Immediate support and resistance at 1217/1230.
    Far support and resistance at 1187/1241.50. O/N Trading is in a “no mans land” between opposing major acceptance areas 1303/1158 with major
    and ongoing negative macro news likely to continue.Levels are wider than normal due to increasing volatility. Between 1217 and 1250
    is a low volume area and moves will tend to be faster and bigger than average.
    I’ll update before the open.

    CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
    1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
    1270-75 Resistance, Wide/Deep CLVN
    1241.50 Resistance, CLVN
    1230 Resistance, CLVN
    1217 Support, CLVN
    1187 Support, CLVN

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/11/01/ES_Composite

  125. 125
    UPDATE 1-US oil rig count near all-time high- Baker Hughes | Atlanta Natural Gas Says:

    […] = 'none'; document.getElementById('singlemouse').style.display = ''; } Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… window.google_analytics_uacct = "pub-0417058043089430 "; var analyticsFileTypes = ['']; var […]

  126. 126
    Crude Oil Prices Says:

    Crude Oil Prices…

    […]Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Monday Morning – Natural Gas Supply Slide Show Plus Energy Earnings Week 3 Preview and the Week 2 Wrap[…]…

  127. 127
    sweet crude Says:

    sweet crude

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