28
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/28/11

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Well that was more like it. Energy in general remains undervalued despite the run and those that think that some of our names, being up 50% in the last month, are overheated, have not been paying attention to the price erosion over the summer or the fundamentals of the names themselves. But that's OK, let the "generalists" be confused and late to the party as usual. We can lighten into their optimism when the charts are suddenly more obvious.

In Monday's post please look for:

A) the natural gas slide show with production data for the month of September ... once again, little to nothing for bulls to dine on in the data,

B) the wrap of energy earnings for Q311 week 2,

C) the earnings calendar for the coming week,

D) a few operational updates from SSN and some other smaller names

and later in week look for a revised E&P Catalyst List and on Tuesday, Performance of the ZLT portfolios through the first 10 months of the year.

Have a great weekend,

Thanks and Best,

Z

27 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/28/11”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    Areas of Interest..
    TPLM Pull Back under 5.75
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite
    WLL Pullback under 48.75
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_2

  2. 2
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS Pullback under 30.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_3
    GDP 16.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_4
    NOG 24, 23.25, 22.50
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/29/Stock_Composite_5

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the levels Zorg.

  4. 4
    choices Says:

    Good graphs on Chinese growth/use of energy, good overall summary of markets:

    https://mail.google.com/mail/?hl=en&tab=wm#inbox/1334d88d469d04d2

  5. 5
    choices Says:

    #4-better link-more direct

    http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/index.cfm?&

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Hey guys, what is the trick to see the right side of the graphs if they appear clipped, I always forget that one.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Tomorrow’s post:

    Wrap of energy earnings week II,

    look ahead at week III,

    the natural gas supply slide show with August data

    and more earnings reviews

  8. 8
    choices Says:

    #6-not sure if this is the question: if right of graphs cut off, hold CTRL and hit –
    to reverse, CTRL and +

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    re 8 – thanks very much, that’s it for my browser.

  10. 10
    DrLink Says:

    I just double click my mouse…..on firefox

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Thank you DrL

  12. 12
    nrgyman Says:

    RE 6: Try this if you are using Chrome on Windows:

    Use the mouse wheel and hold he CTRL key. It zooms the page in and out. Very convenient. Hope that helps.

  13. 13
    andy Says:

    z – reduce your zoom per cent mine is at lower right hand corner of screen

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Re 12/13 – thanks very much.

    Futures pretty flat early, crude holding the 93.50 level. Busy week from an ecodata perspective, ISM, nfpayrolls, plus the G20 rumor mill.

  15. 15
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..Friday close ..S&P Futs 1282.25 Notes To Myself.
    Immediate support/resistance at 1270-75/1294.50. Major acceptance/congestion and upside target at 1303. 1241.50 is support/gap close.
    Additional support at 1229.75 and 1217.
    Numerous breadth, momentum and volatility studies coupled with stiff overhead below 1303 have me
    looking for the start of consolidation or short term pullback above 1241.50.

    CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
    1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
    1294 Resistance, CLVN
    1270-75 Support, wide/Deep CLVN
    1266 Acceptance, CHVN, RTH and O/N VPOCs 10/27
    1241.50 Support, CLVN, Gap Close
    1230 Minor Support, CLVN
    1217 Support, CLVN

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/ES_Composite

  16. 16
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude…Short term volume trend entended into a thick band of congestion/acceptance, trading above both long term and short term acceptance.
    Looking for choppy consolidation and possible retest of 88.50 with far support at 84.50
    95 Resistance
    88.50 Suppport
    86 Acceptance
    84.50 Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Crude_Composite

  17. 17
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE… XLE broke higher through a very low volume 73 on Thursday and began to consolidate below dense overhead. Short term volume trend is extended and I expect a consolidation/pullback to 71 +- .50. Will watch for volume to come in at support.

    73 Resistance
    70.50 support

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Stock_Composite_2
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/30/Stock_Composite_2

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Zorg

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    SSN on the tape with the now weekly update

    Defender well ready for fraccing on Nov 7

    Spirit of America – failed in first side track effort, trying again.

    Australia II (Montana Bakken test) – pad complete, spudder rig setting surface casing, main rig arrives Nov 2

    Also pre lim numbers on the quarter with 3Q oil production up 18% and gas up 4%.

  20. 20
    Zorgnak Says:

    $USD Futs put in a weekly DeMark exhaustion buy signal on Friday. Wouldn’t take much to flip the volume trends to positive, even with last weeks sell off.
    Seeing signs of reversal tonight.. Still early but worth watching…

  21. 21
    elduque Says:

    Major sign of a reversal right now. Welcome back Zorg.

  22. 22
    Zorgnak Says:

    thanks..
    Peter Brandt just threw up a chart of the USD/JPY cross as Japan intervenes

    http://chart.ly/nc9c435

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Japan in the forex market knocking the yen down and the USD and euro up. Uncool for US exports.

  24. 24
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Yep… as expected. Next up to bat in The Bear Trap Game = Italy. And it’s a much more important country than little ol’ Greece.

    TED still moving wider (almost +43 bps now). Non-US money-center banks (ie European) banks afraid of lending to other banks. No one knows what the other banks holds… but they are worried it’s worse than what they hold. The FEAR trade is ON today.

    IG opening +4 1/2 bps wider.

    Happy Halloween.

  25. 25
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Short Term Areas Of Interest ..10/31 8:30am ..S&P Futs 1266.75 Notes To Myself. A sustained break below 1268.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable..
    Immediate resistance at 1270.50. 1241.50 is support/gap close.
    Additional support at 1229.75 and 1217.
    Looking for consolidation/short term pullback above 1241.50.

    CLVN= Potential Rejecton Area – CHVN = Acceptance/Congestion
    1303 Major Acceptance/Congestion
    1294 Resistance, CLVN
    1270-75 Resistance, Wide/Deep CLVN
    1241.50 Support, CLVN, Gap Close
    1230 Minor Support, CLVN
    1217 Support, CLVN

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/10/24/ES_Composite

  26. 26
    Zorgnak Says:

    correction..above should have read …
    A sustained break below 1268.50 would suggest a gap close to 1241.50 is probable

  27. 27
    Zorgnak Says:

    sssh 1266.50
    my mind is still on vacation..

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