29
Jul

Friday Posts – Now Improved With More Earnings Summaries

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Market Sentiment Watch: D.C. soap opera continues. Enough said. Meanwhile in energy land we have reports from two more E&P stalwarts, CHK (nice beat and came out of the Utica closet) and SWN (also eported a nice CFPS beat and also announced a new oil play). See details on both in the Stuff section below. 

Housekeeping Watch: Follow us on Twitter using either the little blue bird at right on your screen or go to twitter and search for @zmansenrgybrain (not a typo). Sometimes we comment over there after hours and away from the office. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get 2Q GDP at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.6%),
  • We get Chicago PMI at at 9:45 am EST (F = 61.9%, last read was 61.1%),
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F 64.3, last read was 63.8)

In today's post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff  We Care About Today – Earnings Watch (CHK, SWN, SSN)
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

Please click the link right below this to 

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):
  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $8,500
  • 100% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None but starting to mull taking the ZIM out of hibernation with regard to WLL and possibly with regard to CRR. See comments below in the Stuff section. 

Commodity Watch

Crude oil ended up $0.04 to close at $97.44 yesterday. This morning crude is trading down slightly. 

Natural gas fell 7 cents to close at $4.24 after the EIA reported a larger than expected and larger than seasonal average injection to storage report despite near record heat. This morning gas is trading flat

  • Tropics Watch: Tropical Storm Don should come ashore just under hurricane strength late tonight or early tomorrow in south Texas. The storm prompted a number of Gulf producers to shut in production but I wouldn't expect much of an impact on next week's inventory report.
  • Supply Watch: We get the EIA's read on supply and demand for the month of may sometime this morning. I'm expecting a slight pull back in total lower 48 marketed production but nothing that will make the bulls excited just yet. 

Natural Gas Review


ZComment: Higher than modeled weekly injection levels of late pointing to stronger than anticipated production, especially from the Marcellus. The producing region did see a second week of draws and absolute storage levels remain well short of record levels (due to last winter and a period of Spring demand) but we really need to see a rollover in "other state" production levels before I or anyone else is likely to get too excited beyond the normal spikyness of hurricane season. 


Stuff  We Care About Today

 

CHK Reports Better Than Expected 2Q Results; Aubrey Chants: Utica, Utica, Utica


The 2Q numbers: Better than expected quarter. Do note that the quarter would have been up 12% sequentially had they not sold 400 MMcfgpd of volumes with their Fayetteville divestiture and another 40 MMcfepd with their last VPP. 

Guidance

  • Volumes:
    • 2011 - increased from 8% to 13% over 2010,
      • Minor Knock Here On The Guidance Here: They are pulling in the liquids production due to some physical restraints in getting volumes to market. 
    • 2012 - increased to 15% growth on the mid. 
  • Capital Budget:

    • Adding $500 mm per year to reach a range of $6 to $6.5 B in both 2011 and 2012. The increase comes from some service cost inflation and an increase for Utica drilling.

Play Highlights

  • Utica Shale

    • The now hold 1.25 mm acres in the play
    • 5 rigs running now, going to 8 soon with plans to really accelerate in 2012. 
    • They've drilled 6 horizontal and 9 vertical wells to date
    • Well results were not included in the press release but they did go on to say that in part based on the well results they put a lofty valuation of $15 to $20 B on the acreage. This seems at first blush high but there are lots of potential Chinese partner in the mood for JV's these days and I would not be surprised to see CHK monetize a piece of the play in large part for a carried interest that comes close to the $12,000 per acre the low end of the range implies. He's done it before and he will do it again. 
    • Others who could see play in their stocks over CHK finally admitting they are going into overdrive in the play are numerous since the Utica Shale is actually geographically bigger than but underlies the the Marcellus. Names with Marcellus acreage include: GPOR, EVEP, MHR, RRC, XCO, PVA, COG, GST, KWK, SWN, GMXR, BHP, APC. 

Nutshell: Capital discipline ... you just knew it couldn't last. The bumps in production are not sufficient to cover the extra spending and the inflation question wasn't really handled by the press release so I would expect them to take a little grilling over that in the Q&A session. I will continue to hold as I didn't really think CHK would shrink away from big spending any time soon and the fact that they are well undervalued on a potential reserves basis is compelling enough to let me look the other way as they bump capex ... I'd say let's not make a habit of it but I'd have to add "too late" and besides, Aubrey has proven time and again that what he pays $1 for he will eventually sell to someone else for $5 to $10 in the not too distant future.  Also on the call I'll be looking for more color on what the Utica actually produced for CHK. RRC drilled the first horizontal in the play to my knowledge and it would be nice to add CHK's data to the limited sample set available now. Also, a little other play color would be good, still waiting on them to disclose their activities in the Williston beyond the coy comment about them thinking about the play differently than others.

SWN Reports Stout Corner, Reveals New Oil Play


The 2Q Numbers Comment: Nice beat from the top line on down. Nice to see a return to per unit LOE cost reductions although I would think they will flatten in coming quarters as water handling costs increase. 

Guidance: Not mentioned but looks increasingly in the bag to beat the 20% current YoY guidance for 2011. 

Highlights

  • Fayetteville Shale
    • Another quarter of strong growth as they stay on pace to add 150 wells per quarter this year
    • They are now drilling wells for $2.8 mm a copy here, with many being drilling in 5 days. 
    • If I had to sound one cautionary note it would be on the IP rollover we have seen over the last two quarters. They say it is a function of shorter lateral lengths and well mix but this may be a knock on the stock for some analysts. 
  • Marcellus Shale
    • Ramping rapidly with production of 5.1 Bcf in the 2Q vs 2.8 Bcf last quarter and 0.8 Bcf a year ago. 
    • As we've seen in all unconventional plays, the first wells for SWN were not their best and the learning curve is yielding better wells now, with one coming in at 7.8 MMcfepd.
    • The 5.1 Bcf comes from 18 wells, another 10 are awaiting hook up and the company is now going to add another rig. Look for bigger guidance for next year on the 3Q or 4Q call... it should be impressive. 
  • New Horizontal Oil Play - Lower Smackover Brown Dense (mudstone - basically a dirty limestone)

    • Massive position in potential oil play built: They spent $150mm over the last two years acquiring leases on 460,000 net acres prospective for the Lower Smackover Brown Dense (mudstone)  in southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana.  That works out to $326 / acre. 
    • Depth of 8 to 11,000 feet with a thickness of 300 to 550 feet.
    • This is potentially a big play stretching from the Texas Gulf Coast to Alabama if not Florida. 
    • I don't know how fractured this is or how much data they have over (2D or 3D?) or how much well control they have if any (vertical well penetrations they have data from that penetrated the new target) but this has been an oil producing region since the 1920's ... I don't know if this is related to the Magnolia Anticline where oil has been produced from the Upper Smackover since the late 1930's but that would make sense as you see many of older plays being reexamined from a source/reservoir standpoint for horizontal exploitation. 
    • We do know that the play is low porosity and permeabilty and that unlocking oil from the play is on of CLB's pet projects.  Lots of clay will make completions somewhat tricky but if they didn't think they could handle it you wouldn't see the name pushing half a million acres here. 
    • And we know that EOG has drilled a well in AR (vertical I think) looking for oil last year but has been quiet about it. I expect several other names to emerge with positions in the not too distant future. 
    • SWN is planning to spud the first well, a 3,500' lateral, in Columbia County, AR this quarter, followed by a 6,000' lateral in Claiborne Parish, LA. We might here something regarding the first well results between the third and fourth quarter calls. 

Nutshell: Better than expected production and they didn't up the budget so no immediate hate rays from the sell side. Will be listening closely for additional information on the Brown Dense. No plans to sell at this time. 

Other Stuff:

Quarter Wrap - WLL - Just some quick thoughts on management's comments regarding their Lewis and Clarke play relative to their past experience. The quote from management was along the lines of "this is the best play I've seen in my 40 years of experience". Without a doubt WLL's crown jewel is the Sanish Field so making that statement about the Three Forks play at Lewis and Clark in Stark county, ND is either  extremely wishful thinking on their part or a simply a matter of confidence brought about by having seen this kind of play develop/evolve before.  I had been working on a well study on WLL's operated effort at Sanish and in an nutshell, and to no one's surprise, the field is a producer of monster wells. I don't care for IP's as much as I do long term production so here's Sanish broken down by the available data (which is actually quite a lot). 

These are very strong numbers for Lewis and Clark to stand up against but L&C is also 3x the size of Sanish on an acreage basis and its very early there (most L&C wells don't have even 6 months of available production data).  

Other Stuff

CRR Call Notes - to be added in comments this morning. 

SSN Reports 2Q Results

Production was up 63% for the quarter as more Williston Basin Bakken wells were added to the mix. The percentage increase looks large when you are growing from a small base but its good to see them moving the numbers up as we await news from tests in both the Niobrara and Montana Bakken program later this Fall. There's a lot of data points in the press release on current operations however there's very little in that's new. Right now the story is waiting on results and that's going to take a couple more months to see anything really newsworthy out of the name. The first data points will be:

  • from the HAL run (and 100% paid for) Niobrara horizontal well in Goshen (think we here something regarding an IP in September or October),
  • followed by an IP for their 6th Bakken well at North Stockyard (which should help boost 4Q volumes),
  • followed by two wells in their recently acquired Roosevelt acreage in Montana (think August / September spud with October

Nutshell:  I'm holding tight awaiting more news. The company has no debt and continues to hold over $50 mm in cash after taking the Roosevelt county leases. If you've never read a SSN quarterly piece and have an interest in the name I'd suggest taking a look as they give a fairly detailed run through of their current plans.  

 

Next week from names of interest we get 2Q reports from ATPG, CRK, CXPO, FST, SM, XCO, REXX, SGY, VQ, CLR, EPL, PXD, WLT, BRY, XEC, DNR, FSLR, KOG, PETD, PQ, SD, and EOG.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • WLL - Ticonderoga ups to Buy
  • WLL - BMO cuts to Market Perform with a $65 target
  • WLL - Jefferies maintains Buy rating but cuts target by $10 to $75
  • WLL - Dahlman Rose cuts target by $5 to $73. 
  • WLL - Morgan Keegan ups to Outperform with a $73 target
  • COG - Jefco ups target by $10 to $95.
  • GPOR - SunTrust ups target $5 to $45 (presumably on the CHK Utica news)
  • EVEP - Wells Fargo ups to Outperform 

234 Responses to “Friday Posts – Now Improved With More Earnings Summaries”

  1. 1
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Futures Areas of Interest 8 AM. O/N trading dropped below 1292.75, yesterdays far support and has tested as low as 1283.
                                           The S&P is now stretched in it's short term range to a point that historically results in at least a bounce
                                           to it's 10 Day SMA 80% of the time. (Assuming the S&P > 200 Day SMA). The bounce doesn't have to happen today
                                           though. Continued l66p663feow risk appetite, poor liquidity and high volatility in the near term until DC news
                                           resolves. Early areas of interest will be how the market treats 1292.75 and how
                                           any bounce reacts at 1299-1300. Aside from the DC news 1307.25 is still the major magnet on
                                           the board.
                                         
                                        
                                        

    1310.25       Minor CLVN
    1307.25       Major CHVN…remains the major acceptance area
    1300            Major CLVN, O/N High 1299
    1292.75       CLVN, O/N VPOC
    1286.75       Minor CLVN
    1283             O/N Low
    1281.50       Major CLVN

    VPOC=Session Volume Point of Control/Acceptance
    CLVN =Composite Low Volume Node/ Rejection    CHVN= Composite High Volume Node/Acceptance and Congestion

    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/FT71_ES_Composite

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    GDP = 1.3% … ouch.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    QE 3, QE 4, QE 5 on the way … as long as AAPL will lend the US government some cash.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    CHK call in 30 minutes.

  5. 5
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P/XLE spread remains wide with the XLE out performing the market by as much as 2 SD's on the BB bands over the last 20 days. It's hard to eat relative strength though, and the XLE has returned to
     it's recent breakout point and now support in the 77 area. Major acceptance is lower at 74 and a break of the 77 area today would put XLE back into congestion after the recent  strong move. A more promising scenario would have 77 as support and the low of a new range from 77 to 80. I'll take door number two
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_2

  6. 6
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P pushed the S&P to new O/N lows and tested support at 1281.25

  7. 7
    Zorgnak Says:

    ooops

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    … yeah, and this is month end. Going to be a volatile one. Wonder if we get the mid day turn despite the data on hopes of a Debt deal over the weekend.

  9. 9
    Jerome Blank Says:

    It’s interesting that the $NYMO, McClellan indicator, which has been a very relaible indication of overbought/sold at extended readings closed at almost -78 yesterday, this reading suggests that the macro risk is now to the upside, very oversold…looking at the bullish percent energy, a broad selection of energy stocks, this chart flipped bull confirmed on July 19th trading as high as 82%, getting overbought…so looking at the two idicators combined, the picture seems to be one of picking energy stocks carefully, a stock pickers market…for the next swing higher, which is coming…if the bullish percent for example was below 50%, you could just throw darts at any energy stock and be ok, that’s not the case now…

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    CRR – Stephens basically saying OK quarter, pricing was up, all projects remain on track, the stock feel due to the lack of a big upside surprise on the EPS number. They are not raving about the stock post quarter just saying all good, maintaining $190 target.

    And that’s kind of how I feel about the market reaction yesterday there. If it gets hit again today I may play with calls despite the fat spread.

    I will be looking at some names after the opening swoon for quick call plays today. Thinking HAL (as that train isn’t slowing despite GDP) and then maybe a Utica name as they should shine for more than just a day …. CHK call in 10 minutes.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Jerome – good to hear from you, thanks.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    EVEP up $6 now, was up as much as $15 earlier. A bit nutty but they do have a big slug of acreage.

    Wonder if this announcement gets MHR to step up their Utica thinking.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    TPH had 3 sentences on SWN’s new play. There’s detail for ya.

  14. 14
    brodway Says:

    There are bigger issues than the debt deal it seems. Economic news this morning certainly says the US consumer is weak. Congress needs to come to the realization that people need to get back to work so they could start spending again.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Zorg – I think H&S will be the most searched term on Google over the weekend.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch

    SWN – Simmons calling the Fayetteville quarterly performance “poor” – citing the lower IPs again that I mentioned might be a knock by some. So what if they took out the top end of the guidance range, another analyst running head long into a tree and missing the entire forest.

  17. 17
    elduque Says:

    Good Morning JB – Thanks

  18. 18
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN – a good quarter I thought, likely to be overshadowed by multiple macro level boogeymen. LOE down a nickel year over year on reduced salt water handling costs in FS? I would be curious how they pulled that off. Lower Smackover Brown Dense needs a nickname. Z – correct me if i am wrong but that area of AR is mostly trees? I like the fact that it is close to home for SWN – saves on costs down the line if it works. They clearly know their way around AR. Notably few comments on all that acreage in New Brunswick – that one feels like double back burner to me.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Call to focus on 4 liquids plays

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    CHK Call Notes

    Mississippi Lime Paly

    285,000 BOE EUR for first well for a sub $3 mm CWC play.

    They were initially unsure of the size of the play and the variability.

    Now more clear they have a major play here.

    1.1 mm acres, biggest
    6 rigs now, going to 10
    30 to 40 rigs by 2014/15

    Drilled 56 wells no far
    415,000 BOE for $11 /BOE F&D

    Planning to develop on 160 ac spacing

    6,750 net locations

    2.2 billion barrel unrisked res pot

    Looking for JV partner in early 2012

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    CHK Call Notes

    Cleveland /Tonkawa tight sand plays

    720,000 net acre, no one else has anything close to this size.

    Play built from 2001 to 2007

    Were drilling conventional gas targets from 12 to 25,000′

    (see release last week, that well did 60 Bcf and has paid out 37x …. yeah, yeah, it’s great blah, blah, blah)

    Drilled 116 Hz wells in the C & T

    600,000 BOE EUR – now that’s nice

    16 rigs drilling and will be 25 in next few years.

    160 ac spacing

    4,400 net wells

    2.0 B barrels unrisked res pot net to CHK

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    CHK Call Notes

    Utica

    Largest leasehold in the play, drilled first discovery wells (RRC did have a well too but who’s being particular)

    Says they are the only ones to drilled a producing oil hz in OH

    Dry gas = eastern

    Oil phase on the western side

    Not discussing results for competitive reasons … oh come on Aubrey, how many acres do you need? Sheesh. Spill it man!

    $15 to $20 B worth (that’s in the PR)

    Saying its economically superior to the EFS.

    “we know how to extract and create value from a play such as this” – Agreed.

    Says they have already been approached by others for monetization plans.

    Saying its more important than any of their other liquids plays to CHK.

  23. 23
    Justin Says:

    SSN

    Z –

    If I recall correctly, there were a couple of misc. 1 – 3 month shut-ins in the SSN report. Any thoughts there?

  24. 24
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 1292 area still the most interesting area for me today….any rally thru would be significant..I don’t expect it, without a shift in the news flow.
    Additional area of support now would be 1276
    1310.25 Minor CLVN
    1307.25 Major CHVN…remains the major acceptance area
    1300 Major CLVN, O/N High 1299
    1292.75 CLVN, O/N VPOC
    1286.75 Minor CLVN
    1283 O/N Low
    1281.50 Major CLVN
    1276 Major CLVN

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Re 18 – yeah, pine and oak mostly, lightly populated, “big town” there is probably Arkadelphia (depending on where it is centered).

    SWN – analysts pooh poohing the FS play results.

  26. 26
    Zorgnak Says:

    10:20 Obama statement

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    CHK Notes

    Hayensville – gross operated is 1.7 Bcfepd

    (this would be the 7th largest gas producer if it were a standalone company)

    Marcellus – gross op is 0.73 Bcfepd, top producer

    Granite Wash – 0.42 Bcfepd, biggest

    Eagle Ford – gross op is 20,000 BOEpd, 4th largest producer in play

    Cleveland /Tonka – gross is 25,000 BOEpd

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    SWN – RBC raises price target by $6 to $56 … holy crap … someone gets it.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    CHK

    Hayensville and Bossier ramp down

    33 rigs now, 9 of those are drilling their last wells and will then exit the play, on the way to 15 rigs.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    SWN by the way has nice option spreads and strikes at $1 intervals.

  31. 31
    bill Says:

    chk is a 75 stock, imho

    it looks like it will be up adollaron open and if the market wasnt so skitish would be up 10 % or more

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    CHK

    25%/25% (2 year production growth / 2 year debt reduction ) plan

    now is the

    30% /25% plan and in 2012 they hope to make that the

    30% / 30% plan. If they do the typical build it then monetize it with the utica that’s possible.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    re 31 – yeah. If Aubrey were in charge of U.S. job growth unemployment would probably be at 5% too.

  34. 34
    Zorgnak Says:

    Some stats market gaping down after 4 lower lows since 2006, 12 trades 10 winners if sold at end of the day..

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 34 – does that mean add after the gap but sell before the close?

    CHK Q&A starting

  36. 36
    Wyoming Says:

    After just coming off a project with a Chinese drilling rig, I can honestly say that there is a group of drillers who will be living in interesting times;

    http://nationaljournal.com/magazine/will-sloppy-drilling-off-the-coast-of-cuba-threaten-florida-gulf-beaches–20110728

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    CHK Q&A

    Utica

    – Won’t say if they would classify as oil wells.

    – He’s just not going to give any specifics now.

    – He did say people can go to the Ohio O&G site and figure out some data about the wells.

  38. 38
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    CHK — heard that Aubrey has been leasing “all along the river.” That would be the oil window. And right in MHR’s zip code too.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Wyoming – got thoughts on the fun of drilling in clays? … the Brown Dense could be pretty interesting … its thick, its the source for the long time production from the upper Smackover, so if they get it right could be game changer for SWN as they are all gas now and have been looking for THE play to break them out for some time now.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    re 38 – thanks BOP, very interesting.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    How do you frac a clay???

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Oil at $95

    Group coming off as you’d expect on the open, waiting for flatness to act.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    re 41 – use stabilizers to keep the clays from swelling.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    S&P approaching 200 day average at about 1,284.

  45. 45
    mimster90 Says:

    snagged some WLL at $55

  46. 46
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P Gap stats from Rob Hanna..does good work..
    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/07/gaps-down-after-4-lower-lows.html

  47. 47
    Wyoming Says:

    Drilling should not be an issues if best practices are applied. Only limitations could possibly be downhole temps, don’t know the particulars of that area.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – SWN

    SWN – Added (10) August $48 Calls for $0.95 with the stock at $46.40 before the call. May add more depending on on call comments on the Dense Brown formation. See site for additional thinking on the name.

  49. 49
    Wyoming Says:

    41 – what are the mechanical properties? Is it ductile or brittle? Either way, it can be frac’d.

    Clays are stabilized chemically, not a problem as long as you know what you are dealing with. Stabilizers is also part of the assembly but I did not think this was your question.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Wyoming — thanks for #49. If you say it can be done, alls i needs to know!

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    HAL – Added (25) August $57.50 calls for $0.20, with the stock at $53.90 on broad market weakness.

  52. 52
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Zman, did you buy the weekly 2 HAL’s

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    re 41 – should be clays in a clastic, don’t know all the grain sizes, pretty mixed from what I understand. Oolites in parts but no idea how much of that. Hopefully that gets asked on the call, if not I’ll call them. No idea how fractured up it is but word was EOG drilled in the last year a well chasing natural fractures along a big fault in the area.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    re 52 – yes, I did, expecting to be very quick on a bounce.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    and I split the bid / ask at the time right in the middle.

  56. 56
    Zorgnak Says:

    EXXI double bottom …close gap..added at 32.10

  57. 57
    john11 Says:

    CJES new service co ipo open, Goldman underwriter.Priced 29, open at 30.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Thanks John

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    MHR turning green – quiet chant of Utica, utica, utica being heard.

  60. 60
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P futs..first resistance at 1286.50. near support 1281.50..far support 1276

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Moving over the SWN call starting at the top of the hour.

  62. 62
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P 1292.75 Key resistance next

  63. 63
    1520sbroad Says:

    Timber company – Potlatch – PCH owns a lot of the trees over the SWN play in the Lower Smackover.

  64. 64
    Wyoming Says:

    EOG just finished couple of Austin Chalks in Eagleford country, was successful as I understand. That was a non-frac, natural fractured system. They have experience is what I am saying.

    BTW – hearing some really good #’s about Niobrara in Colorado from one of the operators who already reported but I don’t think they mentioned it yet. Talking in 1,000’s of BOPD with 2500′ laterals.

    Later, meetings, then home.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    re 63 – maybe they get an ORRI on it.

    Wyoming – thanks much, In Weld WLL reported a 1,300+ BOEpd Niobrara test.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Reid shouting at tea partiers to play ball, yeah, that’ll help.

  67. 67
    1520sbroad Says:

    for BOP – RAS reported this morning. Not sure if you are still looking for REIT ideas but some good numbers from them overshadowed by a dark cloud over the market.

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MHR — institutional buying…. shhhhhhhhhhhh…………

  69. 69
    1520sbroad Says:

    #65 – perhaps – they can use all the rev they can get. Lumber prices/demand = not so good.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    re 69 = Too many empty houses. Banks bulldozing more and more foreclosures now but it’s a drop in the bucket.

  71. 71
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    1520s — thanks! XACS#1 has been table pounding on the REITS… thinks selling WAY overdone. Good to have fundys to back that up.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    SWN Notes

    ahhh, reading the pr.

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #71 — make that Commercial RE REITS

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    mim — joined you in the WLL trade… liked what i heard on conf call y’day.

  75. 75
    1520sbroad Says:

    #70 – too true. PCH is one of my “snow shovels in July” long term pieces of earth are worth something plays. They have been selling off non-core land to fund their 5ish% dividend. Some oil/gas lease income would help.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    SWN

    Marcellus – very encourage by ops to date

    the highlight well of the quarter is doing 7.8 mmcfgpd after 33 days on prod, long lateral,

    Getting busier as the year moves on

    New Brunswick – drilling first well 2H12

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    SWN Notes

    835,000 net acres outside of New Brunswick, half of those in the Brown Dense play.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – HAL

    HAL – sold the Aug $57.50 calls for $0.30, up 50%. I will likely buy the longer dated Aug calls on the next dip.

  79. 79
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Maybe we can call it the “SmackDownBrown”? Needs a catchy name….

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z is a DayTrader. Nice trade!!

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    re 79 – yeah, brown dense alone sounds pretty bad.

    They are saying they have a ton of well control on the play, saying they have more on this than they did in 2004 when they kicked off the Fayetteville Shale.

  82. 82
    1520sbroad Says:

    “Big Brown”?

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #81 — “brown dense” reminds me too much of that creepy spider.

    And i HATES spiders!!!!!!!!!!

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    re 80 – hey, no need for name calling!

    Leading to the Friday Movie Quote

    “Now you’re getting nasty”

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #82 — thanks for playing! But UPS has already taken that one….

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    re 82 – oh stop. I’m going with BOP’s Smack Down Brown, nice ring to it, sounds like some 70’s action flik.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Alhambra – your ZEB mug never went out because my interns are juveniles. That will be corrected today.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    SWN

    AR – the longest lateral you can drill is 4,500 feet write now.

    Carbonate, that is very, very dirty, lots of shale in it. May not even be a slick water frac, lots of science on the first well, so each stage likely to get a different type of frac solution to test them.

  89. 89
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    For nice breakdown of Utica oil/wet gas/ dry gas boundaries and where some of the wells have been drilled by various operators try the GPOR 7/11/11 investor presentation pages 6 and 7.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    SWN Notes

    Brown Dense

    3,000 miles of 2D seismic, reprocessing

    Not worried about faulting

    32 wells have drilled into the brown dense

    Have mud logs on 17 wells, have oil shows in that.

    11 wells test oil, first of those was in 1941.

    Best well was in 1984, produced 7,000 bopd (vertical well)

    Most just did DST’s on it and then produced up hole

    8 cores – core reports, got rock core on two of them, one core they have tested

    Compares very favorably to shales in other plays.

    Did fracability tests on the rock, that rock was brittle. Encouraging.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BSJ

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Thinking I will add some to the SWN as it keeps coming down here – just not acting right at the moment. Looks like the chart wants to fill a gap lower before recovering.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    People are making a lot out of the knock on the stock comment I made re the Fayetteville results.

    SWN not worried about it.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – SWN

    SWN- Adding (10) SWN $48 August Calls for $.56 with the stock at about $45. See site for details in notes.

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    too add to #84 (from same movie):

    “Snakes. Why’d it have to be snakes?”
    “Asps… very dangerous. You go first.”

    heh heh heh

  96. 96
    crysball Says:

    Z, re CHK coming out of the Utica Shale closet

    In your list of beneficiaries you did not mention RRC or REXX. With their postions in the Marcellus in SW PA would they not also benefet from CHK’s remarks?

  97. 97
    1520sbroad Says:

    NFX greenish hue

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #95 — just reminded me, for some reason, of what is going on in our nation’s capital.

    THAT, unfortunately, is NOT so funny.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes

    Saying the average lateral for the play will see average laterals of 4,400 to 4,500′

    This quarter they drilled more wells on the north side of the play which dragged THIS quarter down … On the south side of the play the laterals will be long.

    Gross wells – still have > 10,000 wells to drill.

  100. 100
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN – any comments on disposal well shutdown/ water in Arkansas?

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    re 96 – I’ll split that with ya, I did mention RRC. REXX was oversight, yes they would potentially benefit.

    NFX is up there too.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    re 100 – NOT ONE. Maybe I missed it while typing/trading. But I don’t think so.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    SWN – see exiting the year with five rigs running in the Marcellus.

    They see drilling 10 to 20 wells per year starting next year in new venture plays.

    You will see a jump up in spending in 2012. Ah, love the unquantified spending ramp comment.

    Fayetteville Shale – not seeing the kind of inflation others are seeing. We own the rigs and other equipment. They’ve got their own sand plant that is saving them $140K per well. Pumping services are biggest costs – calling it an easy pump (not as high hp) – since it doesn’t work for plays like the HS and EFS they are not seeing any price comp for what they need. On steel they have a long term contract for OCTG so not seeing much inflation there either.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    WLL going all yippee skippee now. ZComment: About time, not nearly enough, and I’m being patient.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    SWN

    Saying they can book the historical 2.4 Bcf wells or better going forward. Saying F&D in the FS still below $1/Mcfe

    Production – Joe Allman trying to trip them up.

    They are saying have the FS up 28% for the year is probably pretty good.

    Is the Fayetteville down, is it going to tip over? They can’t imagine that.

    Production here is simply a function of capital applied. Joe doesn’t get that, he just sees negatives everywhere. Must suck to be his dog.

  106. 106
    bill Says:

    CWEI has about 11.0 m shares o/s the founder owns 3.0 m and institutions 5.0 leaving a very small float.

    Short interest doubled from 500 k to 1. 0 shares over 2 weeks 6/15 to 6/30. The stock price rose during this period.

    At most times there is a 50 c spread on bid/ask.

    YEsterday mgt started the call stating that in their opinion, in the long run, the shorts will be a losing bet.

    Short term, production guidance is falling and cap ex is expanding as they shift their focus to the Wolfbone

    They plan on drilling 100 wells +-250 mboe each over the next 12 months, cost 400 m.

    This will earn the chk farm in acreage
    and with these wells producing earnings could/should be over 10 per share and I think the stock could hit 100.

    I have no idea how the shorts will cover 1 m shares with no float

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    thanks much Bill, I like them every time I listen. I really need to work it up to see how expensive it is on assets and cash flow.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    SWN

    I think there is an active size seller in the name today,

    You can see volume spikes on the minute chart whenever they say something like they are not going to raise production.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Bet you JPM is cutting their target, maybe their rating on SWN.

  110. 110
    Zorgnak Says:

    Added some ROSE here

  111. 111
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    WLL — think the stock can close the gap today, zorg??

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    SWN Notes

    Using our own rig, have been working with SLB on the frac designs for this well for the last 9 months, and SLB will do the frac whenever SWN calls for the crew.

    Saying they may do slickwater, acid fracs, and other frac types.

  113. 113
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken rockn

  114. 114
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P at 12925.75 resistance ….

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    SWN NOTES Brown Dense

    EOG Hensley Well – Lafayette county, AR

    drilled 2 years ago, vertical, deeper well, did 1 mm/d

    then more recently, Bramer Anderson, had short horizontal, had mech issues, fraced it but had a prob with the frac, tested 40 bopd with some gas flares.

    There are two more wells permitted by privates Braemer and JW Operating.

  116. 116
    Zorgnak Says:

    re 113..last nights homework showed Bakken group to be in the range where they normally get a bid….

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    I’m sticking with my thoughts in #8 above.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    SWN Notes

    If the Brown Dense works they can ramp quickly and can easily handle $300 to $400 mm more in yearly capex for it.

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    so… midday turn means “up” or “down” from here… so far, buy the open has worked out. Thanks zorg!

  120. 120
    Zorgnak Says:

    Re WLL 59.25 will be first resistance..

  121. 121
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #120 — thank you.

  122. 122
    elduque Says:

    Didn’t NFX mention that they were adding acreage in a new play. Would that be the Utica maybe?

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Watching CHK for a call entry, and HAL for a re-entry. Yeah, feeling a bit tradey, been sitting on my option hands for a long time now.

  124. 124
    Zorgnak Says:

    S&P now above 1292.75…watch for it to act as support or not…closed gap but couldn’t penetrate yesterdays range

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    re 122 – it’s entirely possible, we know its not the Norphlet and I’d argue against it being the Monterey.

  126. 126
    RMD Says:

    118 I want to relisten to SWN’s answer to a GS question where what I heard was the FS would live within its cash flow minus a bit and financing would go to the MS and new ventures (or that’s how I scribbled it down).

  127. 127
    ratberto Says:

    Z, et al, thanks for all of the analysis and comments re WLL. I did stick out my paw yesterday at 54.04.

    So I got that going for me, which is nice.

  128. 128
    Zorgnak Says:

    #121 scratch the “will” part….reads that way.Watching for reaction there if/when

  129. 129
    Zorgnak Says:

    I got a good trade out of CRZO this morning..any particular reason they’re doing well beyond the technicals?

  130. 130
    elduque Says:

    Zorg- I have NFX cheap relative to most of our group of players. Your thoughts.

  131. 131
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX Pulled back to a minor double bottom support area volume ..high relative volume today but taking a lot of volume to move…trading heavy..will look at levels in a moment..computer running slow….mind even slower

  132. 132
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I talked with a friend of my who runs a hedge fund. He was short NOG in the low 30’s covered in the high teens and now is long NOG. (By the way Z, he thinks you work on the 1 year wells by Slawson is FIRST rate work.)

    So why was he short: He thought the bakkens operators where getting ahead of themselves. He though NOG in the low 30’s was overprice on acreage (he gives a discount on non operator smaller acre postitions) and NOG did not yet have oil production behind to support stock price. He gave no credence to accounting issues or goats (lol). NOG was just over valued in a group that and price of oil got ahead of itself.

  133. 133
    Zorgnak Says:

    Thanks to all that kept MHR in front of my snout

  134. 134
    Zorgnak Says:

    Still getting buy programs as we rise into yesterday’s range…1300 resistance here now..

  135. 135
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 132 Why is my friend now long. NOG and the entire bakken group and oil now much cheaper, the shorts make up 56+% of float, can see better second half production, and shorts seems to be blind to the non operator model. Plus he LIKES GOATS.

  136. 136
    RMD Says:

    Aubrey’s comments just invite a Greek Chorus- kind of response: when he was discussing the various plays all of which CHK “discovered”, I couldn’t help thinking about how Al Gore discovered the internet.

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    re 132 – I think that’s all fair. Glad he liked the Slawson piece. Looking forward to the day they drop a slide in their presentation from Z4 Research, LOL.

  138. 138
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 133 its to bad you didn’t add a 0 on to your MHR purchase like you accidently did with RRC (LOL).

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    re 136 – well to be fair, he did put those plays on the map, he and a few others in some cases. Where as Al Gore may own a PC.

  140. 140
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 137 He wondered why all these other analysts couldn’t do the same thing but they are too busy kissing up to the boss (LOL). He did talk to a few buy side analysts who also thought it was original and first rate and hoped their bosses didn’t make them do the same thing (LOL).

  141. 141
    Zorgnak Says:

    NFX.Still below long and short term acceptance…in congestion until above.71.90..
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_3

  142. 142
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Watching CNBC this morning, I thought the world was coming to an end (lol). I have always wondered, does networks like CNBC make you money or do they lose you money.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Hey, thanks for the feedback. I actually prefer data or spin. And if the data lets you spin that’s even better.

  144. 144
    Zorgnak Says:

    #138 I would have had a rough night 🙂 and a lovely morning 🙂

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    re 142 – I use them as a Constaza indicator ala Seinfeld. See what they are doing and then do the opposite.

  146. 146
    mimster90 Says:

    reeled in some NFX at 67.50 this morning

  147. 147
    Zorgnak Says:

    #142 depends on who you are but I’d vote that for most it loses them money

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    Cramer is jumping up and down for CHK on the interwebs re the Utica.

  149. 149
    Zorgnak Says:

    #142 me included

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Your tax dollars not at work:

    May gas data is out at EIA … except that all of the files are old/not updated for the month of May. Did Timmy turn off the lights at EIA?

  151. 151
    Zorgnak Says:

    BEXP 31.50 Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite

  152. 152
    Zorgnak Says:

    I wasn’t watching the news..was there some event that trigger that 20pt pop?

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    re 151 – How odd, was just mulling a BEXP call buy

    and

    re 152 – was just looking to see and see that Cantor said vote in House “sometime today”

  154. 154
    Zorgnak Says:

    #153 my spyware is up and running
    S&P near resistance is 1300 support 1292.75

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Re 127 – thanks, got some nice feedback on the dip than recover piece there out yesterday:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/282520-whiting-petroleum-reports-q2-expecting-early-dip-today-followed-by-recovery

  156. 156
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z and others — thank you much for all the WLL help. Bought again this morning… will probably go higher… but taking profits here.

    Crazy market… crazy volatility. If you can take a bite out of the middle of it intra-day, it sometimes makes for a tasty lunch.

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    BOP – glad it worked for you. I’ll have a piece out on Monday with the rest of the story on the L&C wells vs early Sanish field results.

  158. 158
    zman Says:

    KOG reporting next week, production already announced and better than expected, expect to hear them talk big pix, growth for 2012 setting up to be very large … running room outside the FBIR creates new upside potential at Smokey.

  159. 159
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: What is up with OAS?

  160. 160
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    When WLL said on the conf call that they could fund all the growth on their plate without issuing equity… it was “put the pedal to the metal” time. Not that they wouldn’t issue equity (at the right price). But they were very explicit at saying they didn’t HAVE to. So anyone who shorted on the increase in capex, is having to cover in here. Taking a bite outta that is bettern a Happy Meal!

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    re 159 – um, that’s kind of open ended, can you be more specific?

  162. 162
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    I don’t really follow OAS. However it rallied with the other Bakkens but now seems to be much weaker. For a seemly good producer, with nice acreage and NO debt, it just seems out of character. Is this one of the companies that guessed production is going to be X and announced that it they where wrong, it is going to X minus one? Or are their wells not producing like other Bakkens or what?

  163. 163
    Zorgnak Says:

    #156 WLL I took my trading lot off, as well as many others

  164. 164
    Zorgnak Says:

    Crude at acceptance…volume buying pressure not supportive
    96.75 Resistance
    94.75 Near Support
    94 Far Support
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Crude_Composite

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Re 162

    The best answer to that would be to read the comments from the 1Q call on this post:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2011/05/12/thursday-oil-review-plus-gas-preview-plus-last-of-1q-earnings/

    It’s been subject to the two items all other Williston producers have been: 1) weather and 2) completed well cost creep.

    They cut production numbers since then for this quarter due to weather. Nothing wrong with well performance that I have noted, name is cheap given their big 300K acre position and rapid growth, they may have to tick production down for the year a notch with this quarter’s numbers but again, that’s rear view mirror stuff on weather. Honestly I think it bounced with the group and is now resting with the Bakkens.

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    Zorg – does the SWN chart say it is dominated by the need to fill the HK inspired gap to you?

  167. 167
    Zorgnak Says:

    I’ll check

  168. 168
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Two things: 1. Thanks on that OAS stuff Z
    2. COP is expanding in Niobrara play http://rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=109606&hmpn=1

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    re 168 – thanks, so that but didn’t look at where it was and didn’t see a price tag. Still looking.

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    I did find the WLL CEO comments re the Niobrara and sentiment toward the play very much having improved over just the last 30 days pretty interesting.

  171. 171
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: OAS — the 550 mil cap spending. Do you think the market is pricing in a potential equity raise. OAS seems like it does not like debt and prefers to have cash on the balance sheet.

  172. 172
    Zorgnak Says:

    SWN
    Looks like it too me…zip volume on the profile between 44.50 and 47.50 where it snapped. Expectation for me is a the test of upper 44’s and then……
    With this big of a low volume area it could just scoot right back up IF there’s some volume..relatively little overhead, just that little island of trapped longs above.
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_5

  173. 173
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: 170 Plus the NBL CEO yesterday also had nice things to say about the Niobrara during its conf call.

  174. 174
    blackgold39 Says:

    re 137 – just in it for the lulz

  175. 175
    Zorgnak Says:

    OAS looks like .75 risk left on OAS til far support…looks to be at a defined support level now at 28.75
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_6

  176. 176
    zman Says:

    re 172 – thanks much

  177. 177
    Zorgnak Says:

    Bakken
    Here’s index of the Bakken stocks.
    I notice that they are extended in range to the point where more often than not they are due to revert back up. The group is reaching several levels of past price support. The majority of Bakken stocks are red today and will further the oversold condition and reach price support at the same time. The Bakken stocks are more extended downward in range than the E&P group as a whole.
    http://i1223.photobucket.com/albums/dd503/zorgnak/Bakken.jpg

  178. 178
    choices Says:

    SWN-Z-maybe I’m not paying attention but I’m not understanding the weakness-off>5%-did Q&A do it in?

    thanks!

  179. 179
    zman Says:

    Choices – I think some analysts are spinning the second sequential quarter of down IP’s in the Fayetteville Shale as the beginning of the end for the play. It is a function of well mix in my and management’s view. I think they are missing that production can easily be grown at 10 or 20 or 30% per year as a function of how much cash they spend in the Fayetteville. Meanwhile, the Marcellus is performing above expectations and while the 2H11 will see lower hookups due to infrastructure build out, something we have seen with others as well, that gets healed with time and is not a reflection on geology. Second meanwhile would be that they are going after oil plays now.

  180. 180
    zman Says:

    CHK going for $35

    WLL up over $3 now.

  181. 181
    bill Says:

    Does anyone have access to Global Hunter, they downgraded cwei today

  182. 182
    brodway Says:

    sold WLL for almost at $59 for almost a $4 gain. will rebuy if it sells off again.

  183. 183
    elduque Says:

    Zorg re NFX. I wasn’t thinking so much re the technicals as to whether or not it was a buy. Just according to my work it has really underperformed most of the other cos.

    Thanks for looking at it for me.

  184. 184
    Zorgnak Says:

    KOG Just loves this level………
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_7

  185. 185
    Zorgnak Says:

    #183 Yes..I see that too..it broke down worse than expected during the last big sector tumble as has acted like damaged goods to me…

  186. 186
    zman Says:

    SWN – expecting cooler analyst heads to prevail there next week. Dip, then bounce goes for them too.

  187. 187
    zman Says:

    EOG – boatload of potential catalysts going into next week’s earnings.

  188. 188
    Zorgnak Says:

    ESV has been a pooch for a while but I like the way it’s setting up in this tight base

  189. 189
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    WLL — wow. Pretty fun, when it works!

  190. 190
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    CHK – UBS Maintains Neutral

    … with this headline attached:

    “Q2 Beats, Raises Guidance, Unveils Utica”

    The left hand does not seem to be able to see what they right hand is writing. Sheesh.

  191. 191
    Zorgnak Says:

    It lives! SSN
    The Bakken tide lifting all boats

  192. 192
    zman Says:

    Up $4 now. Yeah, pretty stoked to have the knee jerk piece out yesterday before the open.

  193. 193
    elduque Says:

    WLL moving to fill the gap, another .90 to go.

  194. 194
    zman Says:

    Zorg – I think it’s pretty much trading noise, now until they announce some well action.

    Zorg – I think SWN has a good chance of doing the same kind of 2 or 3 day move that WLL is enjoying now.

  195. 195
    Zorgnak Says:

    #190 I call it music! 🙂

  196. 196
    Zorgnak Says:

    XLE hod

  197. 197
    Zorgnak Says:

    WPRT above breakout again

  198. 198
    zman Says:

    Offtopic thirty

    Grabbing lunch, back in 30 minutes

  199. 199
    john11 Says:

    Here’s a very good blog summary by an ipo guy re CJES, i bought some earlier today.
    http://www.tradingipos.com/blog/index.php?id=241

  200. 200
    brodway Says:

    GMXR looks like an awfully good buy down here. It has always bounced off this level on numerous occasions.

  201. 201
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    nicely done on WLL Zman! I sold my (n longer; sigh) at the money call position for risk control when the stock was at $57 and change level; but added to common share position below $55.

  202. 202
    Zorgnak Says:

    brodway, big vol spike is all that yours? 🙂

  203. 203
    longshot Says:

    Saw this on a message board talking about Miss Lime..good read.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/43945379

  204. 204
    Zorgnak Says:

    ROSE
    A likely spot to take a shot
    http://www.charthub.com/images/2011/07/29/Stock_Composite_8

  205. 205
    Zorgnak Says:

    #200 Nice entry….

  206. 206
    zman Says:

    SWN – gap filling on huge volume. Just exactly like WLL yesterday.

  207. 207
    zman Says:

    Re 201 – I think in 6 months these levels will prove to be a gift. I said that about $60 or so, about 2 months ago though so fair warning.

  208. 208
    zman Says:

    11% of US oil production shut in due to TS Don. Minor, minor impact as it will be off for less than 3 days.

  209. 209
    Zorgnak Says:

    Adios all..have a nice weekend.

  210. 210
    zman Says:

    Thank much Zorg, you too.

  211. 211
    Paul in Kansas City Says:

    no worries there Z; the obvious risk in the next six months is a drop in WTI (maybe under $85?); sellers will pop out of the woodwork in all of these companies that have cap-ex in excess of cashflow derived from th; heaven help the stocks of companies that are not very showing reserve growth. Hedging cash flows didn’t seem to calm investor/trader nerves; LINE a good example; although early 2009 was an extreme circumstance. Paranoia of a repeat persists though in my opinion.

  212. 212
    zman Says:

    Agreed if WTI does break down a bit that will be the case. I don’t think we really go there.

  213. 213
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty

  214. 214
    js4712 Says:

    1520sbroad, Do you know for a fact that the 460,000 acres that SWN has leased for the Brown Dense overlaps with the 410,000 acres that PCH has in southern Arkansas? I looked at PCH’s map and definitely the Columbia county where SWN is spudding the first well is is close to Union, Clahoun, Bradley etc where PCH has their land.

  215. 215
    brodway Says:

    Zorg…not all of the GMXR volume is mine, but i did my part.

    Got in SWN at 44.65 almost at the close. Hope springs eternal.

  216. 216
    bathtime Says:

    OT:CIGX.

    You can watch Star’s Curtis Wright’s (formerly high up in the FDA) dissolvable tobacco presentations to the FDA on video at the below link. Part 1 begins at 3 hours 0 mins, Part 2 at 4 hours 51 mins, Part 3 at 5 hours 26 mins.

    https://collaboration.fda.gov/p12663464/?launcher=false&fcsContent=true&pbMode=normal

    While there is no focus on the pharma side of the business, Wright makes an aside at 5 hours 38 mins in response to a question about Star’s poor financial success. He said they have other (non-tobacco) products that are “doing rather nicely.” I wonder if the woman who helped Wright with the subsequent question was Sara Machir.

    Here’s a link to the PDF files for each of his three presentations:

    http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/TobaccoProductsScientificAdvisoryCommittee/ucm265295.htm

    And the main page link for the meetings:

    http://www.fda.gov/AdvisoryCommittees/CommitteesMeetingMaterials/TobaccoProductsScientificAdvisoryCommittee/ucm237359.htm

    Wright’s presentation gave me further evidence of the serious scientific approach and moral integrity of Star Scientific. I found Wright to be intelligent, disciplined, and genuinely concerned for the health of tobacco users.

    I also wonder whether

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    bathtime Says:

    Ignore that last incomplete sentence.

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    brodway Says:

    From a techincal perspective, AREX and BEXP prices are being supported quite well in this enviroment.

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    zman Says:

    Test with new editor on

  220. 220
    zman Says:

    Test from safari with new editor on

  221. 221
    zman Says:

    Ok, that works with the editor active from an apple device. Should work for iPhone as well

  222. 222
    zman Says:

    Another test

  223. 223
    zman Says:

    Yet another test

  224. 224
    zman Says:

    Ok, new editor on. Someone with a blackberry please let me know if can post a test comment

  225. 225
    zman Says:

    The wrap table and post in progress will be out in a bit.

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    zman Says:

    Wrap is posted

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