27
Sep

Monday Morning And All Is Mostly Quiet In Energy Land

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Market Sentiment Watch: Mergers abound this morning but all is quiet in energy land. Eco data are very back-end load this week as the markets look to close out the third quarter with a strong finish. Year to date, the indexes have done little but September will likely go down as one of the strongest Septembers on record. Please click here to see the Catalyst List which should start to see a number of long awaited items checked off this week (starting with ATPG today). In energy land, next week we will see another energy conference and we should see some more mark to market earnings revisions by the sell side and perhaps a warning or two from some names (thinking one or two Bakken players are likely to have to cut 3Q guidance as WLL did due to Enbridge's snafu but that they too will be forgiven by the market. The real hits will be taken by the unhedged gas names who may not miss already weak expectations but are likely to cut their capital budgets and reduce productions.   Short post today as, like I said, its quiet out there but tomorrow will be back to normal with more news flow and a micro cap report.


The Week Ahead:

  • Monday 9/27:  No ecodata scheduled
  • Tuesday 9/28: Case-Shiller home prices, Consumer confidence (F= 51.5)
  • Wednesday 9/29:  EIA Oil Inventory Report, No ecodata scheduled, EIA Natural Gas Supply and Demand report (for the month of July),
  • Thursday 9/30: EIA Natural Storage Report, Jobless claims (F = 460K), 2Q GDP revision (F = 1.6%, last read was 1.6%), Chicago PMI (F = 55.5%)
  • Friday 10/1: Personal income (F = 0.3%), Consumer spending (F = 0.4%), Consumer sentiment (F = 67.1), ISM (F = 54%), Construction spending (F = -0.5%), Car sales for Sept (F =11.6mm) 

In Today's Post:

  • Holdings Watch
  • Commodity  Watch
  • Stuff We Care About Today
  • Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $3,600
  • 100% Cash
  • Last Friday's Trades:
    • MMR – Sold (25) MMR $16 October Calls for $1.16, up 83%, with the stock at $16.34. Will look at repositioning next week.

 

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Last Weeks's Trades:
    • TAT – Added more shares for $3.02, - they should have potentially catalytic news coming in the next few weeks.
    • SWN – Out half position, down 8% after just over 2 years.
    • GST – Added opening position at an average cost of $3.84.
    • SSN- Added another piece at $1.41. See today’s post for details.

Commodity  Watch:

Crude oil ended last weekup 4% to close at $76.49. The 12 month crude strip is trading at $80.31.  This morning crude is trading close to $77.

  • OPEC Watch: Kuwait sees oil at $75 to $80 during 1Q11; calls for the cartel to act on loose quotas.
  • Iran Watch: Iran pushed across the Iraqi border on Sunday it says in pursuit of terrorists who bombed a parade marking the 30th anniversary of the Iran/Iraq war.

Natural gas fell 3% last week to close at $3.88.  The 12 month strip is now trading at $4.34. This morning gas is trading off 12 cents on lack of a clear tropical threat.

 

  • Weather Watch: One last burst of heat but cooling rapidly now

    • Week before last: Cooling Degree Days of 41 which, yielded an injection of 73 Bcf.
    • Last Week: CDDs of 50, very warm
    • This Week's Forecast: 30 CDDs, still ahead of normal and last year.


  • Tropics Watch: There's a potential storm south of Cuba but otherwise the tropics are fairly quiet. Bastardi is calling for that to change soon. 

Stuff We Care About Today

SSN - Closing #3

  • No word yet, should be announced today but they may take at least a day to make sure funds are in the bank account as they have with the last two closings.
  • We should get word on their next Bakken well results this week.

ATPG Monetizes Titan

  • $350 mm term loan with funds to be transferred to the corporation as production ramps up, starting with an initial $100mm.
  • This is the amount that had been talk about so that goes to management's credit.
  • Timing had been dragging on so good to see it get announced.

Other Stuff

  • BEXP  - 96.5% of its $160 mm 9 5/8% seniors due 2014 have been tendered.  E&Ps continue to swap higher rate debt for longer term lower rate debt as is the case with these.
  • I'll have a micro cap name book report out tomorrow.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • ACI - FBR reiterates top pick/Outperform rating

Interesting Reading Watch:

109 Responses to “Monday Morning And All Is Mostly Quiet In Energy Land”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    ATPG moving up pre market, BOP will be happy no GE involvement.

    SSN – no news, not surprised given their "let's see it in the bank before we" press release it mentality. We should see the deal close news and a Bakken well tonight or tomorrow.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    LINE – upped to Strong Buy at Raymond James – better late than never.

  3. 3
    john11 Says:

    LINE upgrade from RayJay to strong buy, tgt $upped to 38 from 34.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Editor off.

    PXP noted as one of the worst performers in the group last week. I sold my MMR calls and will look to reposition in the play soon. Morgan Stanly out this morning pointing out all the positive aspects of the deal (reduced capital commitments, reduced earnings variability, and increased visibility of sale of the deepwater coming next). Keeping a closer eye here as I think the market has gone too short sited on them.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Thanksm John, didn’t have the price target. Do you have further text from them? Company is telling people the distribution is soon … very soon. But guys lie Citi have said they don’t see it going up soon. I wonder who you believe on that one, lol. I see a post distribution hike upgrade by the naysayers here.

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    Libor + 8 whats that about 10 %

    Ge was probably 13 % ++

    Atpg is running out of things to sell,

    kitchen sink??

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Re ATPG – don’t they have another brand spanking new production hub they can sell and lease back or do a deal like this one on? Or was that the Innovator?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    ATPG up 5% pre market, nice call there BOP. I missed that one but you can’t kiss all the girls. My guess is they have the Telemark well news out this week too. Stock may start to really squeeze some shorts.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    ATPG 200 day is way up at 14.75ish, which was also the level of an August high. Hmmm.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    RRC on the tape building a new regional hq in PA. I pretty much loath the new build by E&P’s, especially gassy ones, at present.

  11. 11
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.

    Resistance is at 1155 – 1157 and then 1163. Support is at 1136 – 1142.

    I think the market should tag the higher numbers sometime this week and that will likely top the 45 day cycle and we can then look for a 2 – 3 week pullback. Pullback could then take us to 1110 – 1120 area.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — I was wrong… but couldn’t be happier!

    No GE (“rip your lungs out”) Capital.

    No Sale/leaseback (still own the asset…. cheaper! b/c get the depreciation)

    No 13% cost of debt… LIBOR + 8 = 29 bps + 8.00% = 8.29% for first quarterly payment (resets every quarter, floating rate)

    Completed BEFORE the Telemark #3 completed (shows confidence in future cash flow streams)

    Who the hell is Beal Bank Nevada?? They sure as heck DON’T WANT to end up with a production asset they have to try to sell (in a foreclosure situation)… so, must think default is a low-probability outcome. Yay.

    Bottom line = much much better than I expected. But, i would NEVER have bought this stock on fundamentals alone… needed to know where we are in the Credit Cycle to have walked the plank for ATPG. The rate, the terms, the counterparty all speak to the strength in the credit market.

    Next up Telemark #3…

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP and congrats on that one.

    Morning Nicky – thank you very much. So maybe a strong end to September and then your typical Red October?

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — hmmmm…. not sure equities have figured out how GREAT the terms were. no worries.

  15. 15
    Nicky Says:

    Essentially Z I think the market is setting up very bullishly. I expect pullbacks to be minimal.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – ATPG

    ATPG – Added (10) October $13 calls for average $0.63 with the stock at $12.85 following monetization news. Should see a new development well added in the not too distant future.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Thanks again Nicky. Everyone is now looking for the Fed to expand it’s balance sheet by November.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — just bought more shares at 12.95… so, it might head lower for a while. BUT, very very pleased with the monetization terms… very.

  19. 19
    bill Says:

    DSX, Diana Shipping not in it but name looks awfully cheap

    Not in mainstream press..DSX bought a brand new ship cheaply 92m dwt for 41 m..

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_D/threadview?m=tm&bn=23022&tid=43677&mid=43677&tof=1&frt=2

  20. 20
    bill Says:

    12

    BOP, wouldn”t Beal bank earn more buying atpg notes or are they restricted to making “secured” loans

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    RJ apparently spent time with LINE in 1 on 1s last week. Saying the distribution will rise 3 to 5%, I had said 2 to 3% so that would be nice to see on the mid.

    Thanks Bill – will go read that.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — #20 think that is a completely different asset category for a bank… with completely different reserve requirements. Actually, I know it is. So, this is the best Beal could do for their income and balance sheet. And it’s a heck of a nice spread… 8% floating rate. So, win-win (i hate that term… but it applies here).

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ATPG — maybe the equities desk is finally talking to the credit desk on this one…

  24. 24
    bill Says:

    It is a good deal for them, given that it cost over 750 m to build it. Thanks

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    This is (partially) why credit-induced moves in equities are so much fun. It takes a while for the equities guys to figure out what just happened. As they consider it BELOW THEIR STATION to talk to their debt counterparties…

    On the other hand, it would take a special shop to own or even follow ATPG from the debt side. So, stock falling through a bit of an information gap at present. This will sort itself out… in a while. How long? Guess i’m gonna stick around and find out.

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    bill — #24 agreed.

  27. 27
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    typically, banks will loan up to 50% of appraised hard-asset value in E&P land. So, that’s about right for the Titan financing.

  28. 28
    bill Says:

    25 , lol

    Good stuff….

    ATPG needs a lot of flowing oil to cover their interest expense but this is the closest they have ever been to achieving this goal.

    Off topic, do you think that CHK finding a jv partner for EFS will get its stock moving, or do we need a higher move in ng

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Bill re CHK, it certainly would not hurt although I have to say that the equity market doesn’t give drilling carries a lot of credence. It’s funny because they spend just like capex (that you don’t have to) and historically he has gone into the plays for lower $ on the acreage than what he makes the JV players pay but still, the market doesn’t really care.

  30. 30
    bill Says:

    Z, you may recall the name HNR small cap in Venezula. Languished sub 5 forever..exploring strategic alternatives

    Im long out but these value plays play out eventually sometimes taking years

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Volumes in the E&P space again pathetic, large, mid, small cap all just treading water. ATPG a standout due to current events but the rest just snoozing. Feels like they could snooze higher which is OK with me but I give a lot of credence to Nicky’s general market warning.

  32. 32
    bill Says:

    If NG could move , there could be good money made in some of our names HK,chk..etc

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Bill – agreed. My sense as you know is that we are range bound and probably near the low end of the range. If we get a quick switch from warm to cold so much the better for a sub 3700 Bcf start to the withdrawal season which should put gas over $4.25 through the winter months for an average. I still don’t get all of the reports of a big surge in production this summer, not with the kind of numbers we have seen like last week and most of the summer, with the injections mostly towards the low end of the range. You just can’t have the big 4 to 6 Bcfgpd increases yoy and get to average to below average injections.

  34. 34
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 16 Nice pick off.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Lemme know if you see any Street commentary on the ATPG deal this am. Stock holding near highs as the S&P takes a little swoon, like to see that.

    Tom – thanks, good way to start the week, may be a day trade, may be a two or three day trade.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    BEXP attempting to break on out of its recent malaise. TPH called it undervalued on Friday, and I have to agree. There are no immediate catalysts for the name, next drilling update should not come until mid to late October. This goes to the reason the ZCAT is sitting in cash at the moment. Stocks moving on the market and then on individual merit and then maybe on a catalyst but not leading up to it as much as after the fact.

  37. 37
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Anyone want to throw out a range to start the give back in ATPG?

  38. 38
    RMD Says:

    bill, I have not been paying att’n to the shippers, but # 19 & 24 get my atention. Is the construction cost today about $8,000/dwt? Is “market” currently $445/dwt? Isn’t that the knid of discount which got the Tischs buying tankers a decade ago? Thanks.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Tom – oh anytime now would be my guess but I like it when an outlier stock holds its gains through a swoon but participates during an uplift.

  40. 40
    elduque Says:

    Aloha

    I am finally back on island. Spent last week in Myanmar. Stopped in Singapore on the way back. It is a modern miracle. Everything is new and clean. I know one product of American life the Asians have picked in a big way and that is consumerism.

    Anyhow, I am sitting here with either the flu, Denque fevour, and a system that is totally out of sink with Hawaii time.

    One question re TAT.

    Am I correct in that they haven’t been on time with when they expect to meet certain deadlines. If so, what has changed.

    Also, in reading the last week’s comments you mentioned you were looking to find another midget. Yes/No. If so, did you write it up.

    Thank you to all.

  41. 41
    bill Says:

    8000 is too high but 445 is low as Ive seen it

    DSX suspended its dividend to buy distressed assets as some buyers cant line up financing.

    There is also a concern (valid) that too many ships are coming into the market

    As far as DSX is concerned , they have o net debt at the end of q2.

    All the stocks seem poised to rally with the next uptick in the BDI. DRYS, EGLE, NM are all up today but the bdi been down in the last 2 weeks. DRys picked up an upgrade today and is a good proxy for the dry market

    Nm has been using convertible pref stock to buy capes and put them on long term charters.

    On BAlt, i assumed they wanted to raise 100 m sooner rather than later. Ive read that they will just wait for their price to imrove before floating it..maybe drive up the next qtr divy and sell into the strength.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    EL-D – welcome back.

    Re TAT- in the past they have drilled less than they said due to a combo of bad weather and lack of equipment in country. The weather has been better of late but that’s a seasonal issue so you never know. On the equipment, they have gotten some new frac equipment in country, the latest greatest stuff compared to what the country has seen before. This coming well is a quick exploratory test so even if they are delayed there it will not be likely it would be for more than a few weeks.

    On the micro cap, it is now set for tomorrow’s post.

  43. 43
    RMD Says:

    bill, thanks for #41; what does it cost per dwt today (roughly) to build one, and what is the current bid for newish tonnage?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Crude off 50 cents, NG off 13 cents … malaise.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    ATPG with some late morning profit taking, if it takes a good hit back to sub $13 look for me to add more.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Working on the micro cap, here but quiet for now, yell if you need anything.

  47. 47
    jiveyjr Says:

    in the FWIW category, I just spent more time with JB’s chart book than I have in a long time…I really like how BEXP is shaping up….had that huge uptrend, has pulled back to shake out a lot of folks and looks poised again when some of Z’s catalysts appear or sooner….just great work by you guys….and voted BTW

  48. 48
    bill Says:

    dsx purchase 91 m dwt = 41

    supramax 52 dwt 33 m
    capes 130 dwt 65 m

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    80 more cents and we have a significant breakout. Stock may just have to wait for the announcement of either a) more big GW wells which could come on the 3Q call or b) an increase in the distribution, which could come as soon as the 3rd week in October.

  50. 50
    cargocult Says:

    WRES seems to be breaking out of its recent trading range. Anything going on?

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Cargo – not that I know about, will check.

  52. 52
    elduque Says:

    I noticed that the BHI rig count was down last week. Was that the first week of a drop?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    No, it’s been waffling about sides on the gas side. The oil directed count continues to climb.

  54. 54
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    And so it begins….

    Conoco Idles Some U.S., Canada Gas Wells Because of Low Prices
    2010-09-27 15:56:14.685 GMT

    By Edward Klump
    Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — ConocoPhillips said it idled some natural-gas wells in the U.S. and Canada because of low prices for the heating and power-plant fuel. The company is shifting some spending to accelerate drilling in the Bakken and Eagle Ford formations, Jim Mulva, chief executive officer at Houston- based ConocoPhillips, told reporters today at a conference at Rice University.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP, about time.

  56. 56
    elduque Says:

    Anything new on SD?

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    While you were out there was an upgrade, forget by whom, other than that, nothing new there that I have seen. Rumored to be a takeout candidate.

  58. 58
    bill Says:

    sd is back to 5 for no good reason. i wonder if something is up

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    RIG just keeps rising, a little bit too far too fast in my book but it is probably reflex over the BP deal. Have seen some upgrades there, have seen several pieces out saying BP is pretty much at complete fault.

  60. 60
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: APC had a good move last week also.

  61. 61
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Did not see anything about NFX on catalyst list. Seems like the high since the Barrons article.

  62. 62
    bill Says:

    from bentek

    Marketed production in the Lower 48 has averaged about 61.9 Bcf/d since Friday, a level between 300 and 500 MMcf/d higher than the two previous … weekends. As September comes to a close, production levels are 7.4% higher than last September, or 4.3 Bcf/d. Demand limped along this weekend averaging just above 51 Bcf/d levels. With temperatures down in the 6 to 10 day forecast, we could see slightly higher HDDs to close out the week.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Tom – Good point, as did both HAL and CAM. Pretty much all of the involved names did (even WFT who was not ever thought to be at fault to my knowledge but who provided the centralizers) except for BP. Alabama on the tape saying they are going to be getting $B’s out of BP in time.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Tom – Re NFX, yeah, I should probably put them back on, I think news will be out on some new area Bakken wells just before the quarter, along with more Granite Wash. Note sure if anything new pops up on the int’l front but I think not.

  65. 65
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: 59 Since DO is also up maybe the PBR news may be helping. PBR has said they need 28 rigs but the social and economic movement is for in house rigs. NE and RIG do not expect the yards down there will get it done. After the deal the gov’t has a bigger % ownership and I am sure a big say so.

  66. 66
    bill Says:

    robry has this sept up 12 bcf’s yoy to 65.09

    up 7.4 % wont be warmly recd when eia gets around to reporting it in nov

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill, that’s Bcfgpd he’s talking? Just can’t see it. The storage numbers would be astronomically higher.

    Tom – yeah, good thought, surprised the Street was so quiet about that.

  68. 68
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    It makes absolutely NO SENSE to continue with the moratorium at this point. What the HECK are they waiting for? More campaign “contributions”?
    —————————–

    Drilling Ban Likely to End Before Nov. 30, Panel’s Reilly Says
    2010-09-27 15:47:25.128 GMT

    By Jim Efstathiou Jr. and Lizzie O’Leary
    Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) — President Barack Obama’s moratorium on deep-water drilling is likely to end before it is set to expire Nov. 30, said William Reilly, co-chairman of a presidential panel probing the BP Plc spill.
    “I’ll be amazed if the moratorium is not lifted before November 30,” Reilly said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television. It’s unclear “why it’s taking so long” to restart deep-water drilling, he said.
    The administration halted drilling in waters deeper than 500 feet after BP’s Macondo well, about 40 miles (64 kilometers) off the Louisiana coast, blew out April 20. The explosion killed 11 workers and set off the biggest U.S. oil spill.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    BOP – hard to lift that boot off the neck once you have it in place. New regulations not written yet would be my guess.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    LINE up a book, 40 cents to breakout.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    West – have you seen production data on the Pederson 10-3H, a Zenergy well?

  72. 72
    bill Says:

    >More campaign “contributions”?

    short answer yes

    He better do it in the next 2 weeks

    The senator of LA is not to happy

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    re 72. Yeah, Mary L is the one holding up one his appointments and she’s a dem.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    What just go into the S&P? Minute chart looks like a telephone pole.

  75. 75
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Your VNR is following LINE up to new highs.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Tom – not mine, at least I don’t own any, but yes, see that. The $AMZ is moving well.

  77. 77
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: I saw on a website over the weekend (always light on facts and details) that ERF bought some property in the Canadian Bakken next to BEXP for $9800/acre. If this is at all correct, I would think that is a good number for BEXP.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Tom – that’s an awfully high number. When you say next to BEXP, you just mean next to the Williston of ND right, nothing BEXP has that I know if near the border with Canada.

  79. 79
    Popeye Says:

    I wish I had bought more KOG.

  80. 80
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Maybe it was just long BEXP hype. Just like every day take over rumors. I will be more diligent with facts only. Or like Woodward & Bernstein (get secondary confirmation).

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Popeye – I think that everyday about my WLL but then I suit up and get at it. I think the KOG story has a lot of bite to it right. Investors generally like sudden rapid growth and you should have that here by year end. They are telling people they are likely to best their 2,500 BOEpd exit target so if they don’t you’ll get another shot at it lower.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Gotta say, aside from being a boring market day, this isn’t much of a pullback after last Friday’s run.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Crude flat into the NYMEX close as the markets struggle to go slightly green on the day.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Thinking of ATPG more as a day trade now. We have home prices and consumer confidence, either of which could trip the market in the morning. If they do and it follows I might play again.

  85. 85
    RMD Says:

    RBC says ERF bot 46,500 acres on the Ft B Rez for ~$9,800/acre with 800 boe/d production.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    That’s about $4000 more than what names there are trading for. That would be a strong plus for KOG.

  87. 87
    tomdavis12 Says:

    RMD: 85 Thanks for digging that up.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    JB – looks like ATPG is right up against resistance at 13.50 on your chart…am I reading that right?

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Kim Jong-un appointed general today, this is Kim Jong Il’s youngest … from Wikipeadia. The last part just makes you love the idea of him running a country with nukes.

    Kim Jong-il’s former personal chef, Kenji Fujimoto, revealed details of Kim Jong-un, with whom he shared a good relationship,[16] stating that he is favored to be his father’s successor. Fujimoto also claimed that Jong-un is favored by his father over his elder brother, Jong-chul, reasoning that Jong-chul is too feminine in terms of his character, while Jong-un is “exactly like his father”.[17] Furthermore Mr Fujimoto stated “If power is to be handed over then Jong-un is the best for it”. “He has superb physical gifts, is a big drinker and never admits defeat.”

  90. 90
    bill Says:

    89 lol

  91. 91
    cargocult Says:

    So what happens to the price of oil if Israel takes out Iranian nuclear assets?

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    re 91. Probably $15 first minute then a back and fill until we see the response.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – ATPG

    ATPG – Out on (10) October $13 calls for $0.97, up 45% with the stock stuck just below $13.50. More influential economic data comes out tomorrow and if it trips the market I may get a second chance to play.

  94. 94
    skimo Says:

    Z, how much of this rally is going to fizzle on Oct first after the fund guys get the stocks they want pumped up for the end of Q?

  95. 95
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — smart trading on the ATPG calls.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Skimo – Dunno but it is on my mind, both options portfolios 100% cash at the moment, not willing to do much more than hit and runs with those. As to the stock portfolio’s I generally ride out things like seasonal events.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    BOP – back at ya, would not have been in the trade if you weren’t so persistent. Thanks.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Volumes still pathetic today.

  99. 99
    bill Says:

    lets get real, minimal damage was done

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100927/ts_nm/us_oil_spill_alabama

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Market diving into the close.

  101. 101
    Geno Says:

    bill#99, I was in Gulf Shores last week. No sign of oil, just beautiful beaches. I think Alabama wants the cash to fix up the Flora-Bama! Place is falling apart!

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Interior official saying in first month after moratorium is lifted very few rigs will probably return to service. No reason given. You’d think they’d be lined up and waiting but he’s signaling that permits and other govt stuff will be a drag.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    VLO on the tape with the sale of its east coast refining ops. Good for them. Probably good for SUN as well. Don’t know the private buyer.

  104. 104
    crysball Says:

    STUXNET….The Malware that ‘Keeps on Giving’ :

    Hamid Alipour, deputy head of Iran’s government Information Technology Company, said Monday, Sept. 27, that the Stuxnet computer worm “is mutating and wreaking further havoc on computerized industrial equipment.” Stuxnet was no normal worm, he said: “… new versions of this virus are spreading.”

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Jat – I take it you saw GS lift their target on HAL earlier …. little late but still welcome I would guess.

  106. 106
    milepost_43 Says:

    TGA price target now C$12…just found this today…..closing all time high today $9.55
    September 20, 2010 10:38 AM EDT Canaccord Genuity reiterates a 'Buy' rating on TGA, raises PT from C$10 to C$12.
    Canaccord analyst says, "Reiterate our rating and raises PT as a result of a corporate update related to the company’s increasing Egyptian oil potential.  TransGlobe has an extensive resource play in the Nukhul Formation and by “cracking the code” with fracture stimulation of the reservoir has poised itself for material production and reserve growth through 2011 and 2012."

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    TAT – License 4175 = dry hole.

    Fracs coming on the Thrace Basin gas wells in the next several days.

    Offering up to $100mm … knew this was coming.

  108. 108
    mimster90 Says:

    zman where did you find that TAT info?
    Wow, full catalyst list.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Mim – they filed a Form FWP (free writing prospectus) tonight:

    http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1092289/000119312510217667/0001193125-10-217667-index.htm

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