31
Aug

Wednesday Morning – Oil Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: The market continues to trade on fear of a jobless Friday. While the Challenger Survey did what it could to help sentiment out this morning with a study showing planned layoffs are at a 10 year low ADP published its read on monthly private sector jobs which showed a 10,000 job contraction for August vs an expected 17,000 job increase.  China however released it's PMI reading showing an 18th straight month of growth which has equity and commodity futures all atwitter early. At the end of the post please note Susquehanna's price deck related trimming of of price targets in the E&P sector. Note that despite a big whack to their gas target for the end of this year ($5 per MMBtu went to $4.50) the price target trimmings of individual E&P names were only a dollar or two and the ratings all stays at Positive (even Sand Ridge). My sense is that the analyst there sees that a) yes, he has to mark down his commodity deck but b) he understands that the market has largely discounted this reduction already. My sentiments exactly.

Rant Of The Day Watch: What is this guff about The Gap and others boycotting oil from the oil sands in Canada? Saying that their corporate responsibility to reduce their carbon footprint drives the boycott?  Oh give me a break. So it's OK to have little kids in Asia make a $5 tshirt but you can't bear the thought of oil sands oil?  Others in the boycott include:

  • Levis - They retreated from selling in China over child and forced labor issues but then went back in when they figured out how many stores you can open in a place that big.
  • Whole Foods - if you want to reduce carbon foot prints don't truck your food to your stores ... grow it there. OK  OK, I know it is not possible to grow a $5 apple everywhere you guys have a store so how about this. Truck all you food with natural gas powered tractors.
  • Bed Bath & Beyond - have you seen anything at BBBY that is not made of cheap plastic? Plastic that comes from oil all over the planet and then sent to and from stores by way of diesel trucks.

Methinks I smell a marketing ploy. Get off your high horses fellas, you don't have any legs to stand on.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

  • $5,200
  • 100% Cash
  • Positions for the quick view are updated on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades: None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $5,700
  • 2% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • MMR - Added back the (25) September $15 calls for $0.36 with the stock at $13.80, taking us back up to (50) of the $15s. I continue to hold the $14 Septembers as well.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil tumbled $2.78 to close at $71.92 yesterday, on month end squaring action and a AAA report showing a big drop in gasoline demand vs the year ago week. After the close, the API released its report (see below) which rallied futures slightly on draws in gasoline and distillate inventories. This morning crude is trading up about 90 cents on China PMI data.

Natural gas inched up less than a penny to close the day at $3.82 yesterday in listless trading. This morning gas is trading off 8 cents.

  • Tropics Watch: Nothing threatening to the Gulf at the moment.

Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: 

  • Last Week:  40 Bcf Injection
  • Last Year:  64 Bcf Injection
  • 5 Year Average: 62 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Hi: 92 Bcf Injection
  • 10 year Low: 34 Bcf Injection

Oil Inventory Preview

 

API Watch:

  • Crude:  UP 4.8 mm barrels - this seems over large but makes some degree of sense if imports were up (trend is still lower seasonally but the week to week numbers can do anything) and if refinery utilization was lower again.
    • Cushing down 0.5 mm barrels. That would be a welcome if hard to fathom move. Last week API and EIA were in agreement on a move lower in Cushing stocks. ------
  • Gasoline: DOWN 0.589 mm barrels. I'm expecting a bigger withdrawal than consensus and bigger than this API reading. 
  • Distillates: DOWN 1.9 mm barrels. Unlikely. Without a significant boost in export and transportation demand, distillate stocks are more than likely to build into early November. 

Stuff We Care About Today

Catalyst Watch

New Additions in yellow as usual. Some key thoughts and then the table 

  • Catalysts are not in the driver seat of the group at the moment (hence the lack of ZCAT list trades at the moment). 
  • However, they are still worth keeping up with since I can be ready with the ZIM and even ZLT quickly in the wake of items being ticked off this list.
  • It also serves as a method of keeping management honest on time lines.
  • This page has been archived on the Catalyst List tab.


Other Stuff:

  • Harold Hamm (CEO of CLR) on Squawk Box this morning:
    • North Dakota only state running surpluses
    • 18,000 jobs to fill
      • ZComment: Mr. Obama, you should take note of that.
    • 5 years from now U.S. will be importing less than 50% of crude demand due to increased shale production

      • ZComment: That's a stretch with the deepwater moratorium and especially the after effects of it (increased costs and increased regulation). If the intangible drilling credits are rolled back you can literally forget it.
    • His target for near term oil: Range bound from $70 to $90

      • ZComment: I'm roughly in line with that. He commented that Saudi wants a $75 / barrel price and that's what we'll get and while its not exactly that simple (and he's clearly aware of that) it's pretty close to that simple.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Susquehanna trims price targets on lower price commodity price deck
    • Natural gas went from $5 to $4.50 fro 2H10
    • Oil remained at $70

      • MMR from $19 to $18, rating stays Positive
      • EXXI from $39 to $35, Positive
      • WLL from $101 to $100, Positive
      • PXP from $35 to $34, Positive
      • BRY from $36 to $34, Positive
      • SD from $11 to $7, Positive
      • EOG from $116 to $104, Positive
  • BRY - Initiated at Howard Weil at $39 and Outperform

112 Responses to “Wednesday Morning – Oil Preview”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Isle – It's a bit pricey for my taste, great company, just elevated on P/CF and TEV to EBITDA compared to some others. That's probably due to their giant acreage position compared to the others. A LOT of their acreage is what EOG calls "Bakken Lite", not the Big Kahuna IPs and reserves you see at some of the others I own. I prefer BEXP / WLL as established Bakkens and OAS, KOG, NOG, AEZ (gone) as up and comers.

     

    Ram – my thoughts on Hamm's comments are in today's post.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Oilxxx please check your email.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    CXPO – Global Hunter starts at Buy

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    That target at Susquehanna on EXXI should get some people to sit up and take notice, especially holders of MMR. Note MMR at $18 target vs $14 price vs EXXI at a $35 target vs its $18 current price.

  5. 5
    redjack Says:

    Z…did you get the price target changes at
    Friedman, Billings & Ramsey?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Front and Center Watch

    My oversized MMR position.

    NBL – trying to break into a PF buy signal at $71. I listened to the whole repeat of their analyst day yesterday and came away with new found respect for this oilier than most, large cap E&P with big reserve targets in their sites and a good cf and balance sheet to back it. The style of management was the type I like, not too flashy, not too dull.

    EOG – mulling a trade

    SSN – inactive this week despite Monday’s news. People there, a lot of them anyway, are probably pretty short term oriented due to the recent big move and still low price of the shares. On Tuesday, the buyer shows us the money (and their name which I’m guessing is NBL). If at the high end of the range we could see a 30 cent move. If at the low end we should move higher as well but you may have some BTRSTN flipper action, despite the fact that the stock price is now predominantly cash, giving little value to the Bakken (play 1 and soon play 2) and remaining Niobrara acreage. If it falls a bit on Tuesday I am likely to buy a little more, if it runs I am well positioned to take advantage of that as well.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    RJ – No, didn’t see them.

    Natural Gas Inventories: Street is at 55 Bcf for tomorrow’s report. Sounds about right, maybe a touch high.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    MMR says thank you China. I will not stay in the overweight on the $15s very long.

  9. 9
    redjack Says:

    Company Name Symbol New Trg Old Trg Current Time Span

    INCREASE:

    Cimarex Energy XEC $70.00 $65.00 $65.42 12 Months
    Bingham Exploration BEXP $20.00 $15.00 $15.32 12 Months

    DECREASE:

    Apache Corp APA $105.00 $115.00 $89.85 12 Months
    Chesapeake Energy CHK $26.00 $40.00 $20.68 12 Months
    Devon Energy DVN $80.00 $85.00 $60.28 12 Months
    EOG Resources EOG $105.00 $115.00 $86.87 12 Months
    Petrohawk Energy HK $23.00 $30.00 $15.13 12 Months
    Newfield Exploration NFX $65.00 $72.00 $48.01 12 Months
    Noble Energy NBL $75.00 $80.00 $69.78 12 Months
    Range Resources RRC $45.00 $60.00 $33.81 12 Months
    Southwestern Energy SWN $38.00 $53.00 $32.72 12 Months
    Comstock Resources CRK $25.00 $50.00 $21.77 12 Months
    Plains Exporation & Pro PXP $30.00 $40.00 $23.88 12 Months
    Rosetta Resources ROSE $25.00 $30.00 $19.70 12 Months
    PetroQuest Energy PQ $7.00 $8.00 $5.98 12 Months

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks much RJ. Note the wide variance from current price to new target in most cases. Do you know if they cut any ratings or just most of the targets. Looking at things like their HK target I’d say not.

    Bingham exploration, the Chandler Bing of Bakken players?

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    WLT up about $7 in two days, reverses the action at expiry last Friday.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    If anyone in the EGY gang wants to propose additional catalysts there I am all ears, I just grabbed what seemed like the most impactful near term ones.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    I think China is a nice thing to pay attention to this morning and CNBC is touting how 50% of earnings from the S&P comes from outside the U.S. but I’d point out to them that the world is not just the U.S. and China and that Europe looks pretty ugly too. Payrolls on Friday are still going to be key to how September moves.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    That TAT close yesterday looks like a late trade fluke, showing up from 2.70 today.

  15. 15
    redjack Says:

    Z…that all there was on the DJ newswire.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    EXXI chart looks tremendous to me. Approaching the April (pre Macondo) high.

  17. 17
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    good morning. hardware/software issues first thing.. never fun… always irritating.

    couple of things to add to cat chart (LOVE the cat chart, thank you z!)

    EGY = needs to find a partner for Angola and officially extend expiration of that concession from 12/31/10 for a yr

    MMR = put Blueberry Hill in there… it’s the “Monster Well” that kick started MMR a week or so ago

  18. 18
    milepost_43 Says:

    EOG “outsources” to EPD

    will be interesting to see if this “outsourcing” changes EOG’s cost structure…layoffs??…..

    Enterprise units enter into long-term agreements with EOG Resources
    Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD) announced that its operating subsidiaries have entered into long-term agreements with EOG Resources (EOG) to provide a comprehensive package of midstream energy services that will service EOG’s growing crude oil and associated liquids-rich natural gas production in the prolific Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas. As part of the arrangements, Enterprise will utilize its existing assets and build additional infrastructure to provide EOG with a full range of value-added midstream services for its Eagle Ford production,

    including crude oil transportation, storage and exchange;

    natural gas transportation, treating and processing; and natural gas liquids transportation and fractionation.

  19. 19
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EGY = another biggie would be to announce the two-well drilling program with partner, Total, on their Onshore Gabon Concession. Think that will be in Sept-Oct? They reprocessed existing seismic (instead of shooting a new program) and will drill two wells (as opposed to one) as part of the Total partnership.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    MP – saw that. The capex increase that EOG announced at 2Q was partially to pay Enterprise. I think it is a smart move to get ready for volumes ahead of time. Also goes to confidence in the play.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP, will add.

    Re MMR BBHill – I had it in, deleted the row like an idiot, a couple of iterations back I see. Good catch!

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Oil numbers in 30 minutes. Anything goes on the headline crude number. Need to see gasoline demand with a final tick up, and would like to see but still doubtful it is going to happen, that distillate draw down API showed last night. If the distillate draw happens it would be due to lower production and not higher demand. And lower production is likely (same for gasoline this week) as we saw utilization and refiner throughput fall last week but production of both products rise as they are the tailpipe of the function and sometimes the data from front to end can lag a week or two.

  23. 23
    bill Says:

    Bulkers doing better today 2 – 5 % moves

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    US Manufacturing unexpectedly up. ISM goes to 56.3% vs 55.5% in July and better than expectations of 53.2%. Dow goes up 200.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Bill – if you had to choose, BALT or EGLE or another name? Maybe Diana?

  26. 26
    Popeye Says:

    China’s manufacturing economy staged a moderate rebound in August after slowing for several months under the onslaught of government measures to rein in credit and deter property speculation

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    May HAL $31s starting to wake up, that stock generally reacts well to broad market moves. I still think it is undervalued here and going into quarter end will see modest EPS increases in some international regions that more than offset the chops to work in the Gulf of Mexico.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    NOG/OAS/BEXP/WLL complex up 2 to 5% as well. NOG probably has the most near term breakout position.

    Note the gassy names mentioned yesterday all mounting big reversals.

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just can’t bring myself to outright sell my EXXI trading shares… so, sold some $22.50 covered calls at 50¢. Probably going higher (which is why i hold a core position)… but picking up some coinage where I can get it.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Looks like people got tired of selling.

    I think that is a wise move BOP, hard to see you losing them in the near month but if you do it’s not a crying shame. You may get the chance to kill that option on Friday if the numbers are weak for payrolls.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I can feel the Hate Rays, aimed at little KOG. This will pass… $2.50-ish is a nice place to buy-and-hold for a while.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    BOP – i think those are ignore rays. Little names not getting a lot of attention in all this. SSN has traded a whopping 44,000 shares. I know folks around here who own more than that.

  33. 33
    bill Says:

    I like balt model but there is 12 m share overhang- so no on them for now , but i’d buy at 11 after the secondary . I f you have long term view and want yield, buying balt now is ok

    Egle can run to 5.25 short term..they have added new ships and rates are doing better, high debt, hi ga so lots of leverage going your way if markets continue to improve

    dsx, essentially no debt, has ltc charters, safest to weather the storm if new delivies keep rates low

    Of the 3 names at todays prices , dsx, balt, then egle

    I think egle is a good one for earnings play and a good one to watch

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Looking at my positions blotter… hard to believe I am going to be rolling into LONG TERM cap gains on my core EXXI position soon. So, other than the trading shares, won’t be kicking any more outta bed.

  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — i think you’re right about the Ignore Rays. Guess i’m just being a tad paranoid.

    (no… wait… they ARE out to get me!!)

    😉

  36. 36
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — MMR treating you very very good today…

  37. 37
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP: Recently you were thinking MMR will need some financing. Do you have a vision as to when, where, why & how? Thanks.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    MMR – taking out the top end of JB’s resistance range from last Thursday which was $14 to $15.59 if I remember correctly.

    Thanks JB for all you do. It’s like having a little TA angel sitting on my shoulder whispering things like “be careful” and “you’re good to go” from time to time. I, as a guy who can read a chart but doesn’t spend that much time doing so, find it helpful.

  39. 39
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Will be able to pass along some comments re Seadrill – SDRL. Did get to read many comments after the earnings release. My job sometimes gets in the way of unlimited comments. I believe they are and will be a stabile 9% yielder going forward. I like better than DO for yield.

  40. 40
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tom — don’t own MMR right now, so don’t have a sharp pencil answer for you. But, MMR does not have enuf cash flow to fund 2011 capex. And they know that. So, either financing (they have the debt capacity) and/or find another partner/JV in the Ultra-Deep Shelf drilling program (likely). Either way, MMR will be in a much better bargaining position if they can get results from BBHill, DJ#2, and BBEast, before taking either of those actions.

    But E21 will benefit from anything good that MMR pulls off (with the exception of BBHill, not in that well). And E21 is oily and generating free cash flow. It’s just the horse I picked for this journey… doesn’t mean it will be the first to cross the finish line. But I know it has the stamina and staying power to get there.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    I may take back some of the KOG I sold a few months back to add to my current holdings in the ZLT. After the oil numbers.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks for that, noted some of their comments coming across earlier, comments about challenging RIG for dominance down the road, noting that JU rates will be rising, sounded good, haven’t taken a look at them ever.

  43. 43
    bill Says:

    when can we expect news from mmr on bb east

    2 weeks, 1 month??

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Bill – Sometime in September is likely, best I could glean from Jim Bob’s ramblings. They are in section. Maybe at a casing point change they log and say something. They are drilling faster than expected and again, in section higher than at BB West.

    Oil #s uno momento.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventories:

    Inventories:
    Crude: up 3.6 mm barrels
    Gasoline: down 0.2 mm barrels
    Distillate: down 0.7 mm barrels

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    more EIA

    Demand:
    gasoline fairly strong, up slightly from last week.

    distillate – unexpected pop in demand

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    more EIA

    Utilization: 87%, down from 87.7%, good.

    Refinery Throughput: slight dip week to week, in line with util

    Imports: decent sized dip

    Cushing 35.8 mm barrels, good news indeed, pushing further away from those all time highs.

    Nutshell: Not a bad report

    Oil holding up pretty well.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    NG soft on Earl bringing clouds as per guy on CNBC, we said this a couple of days back.

    Oil spiking higher now. Market likes the distillate number. That demand spike is odd/early for the season. Anything we can do to get inventories down there is a good thing.

    As I typed I listened to Epperson on CNBC read the bigger than expected inventory number on oil and immediately call it bearish. Be careful where you get your news. She is seeing headlines. She doesn’t know about Cushing yet most likely. Storage at the pricing point for WTI is more important that over all sentiment as are the components of why the overall storage build was the size it was. Product pricing and stocks of products are at least as important to the reaction of crude as the headline number is.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    SD trying to make a move higher now.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Oil continuing to bounce about $74, up $2+. Most of that is simply the S&P. But again, the numbers were not bad.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    NG flat from a large down open, probably the pull of the equity market. Also, at 55 Bcf, the bar for tomorrow’s number is set pretty low.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    ATPG popping now.

    NBL clearing the resistance point at $71.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    HAL just running away now and while my Sept 31s are now back in the black, I would like another crack at it lower. I may take profits there and reload on the coming red day.

  54. 54
    RMD Says:

    I’m nibbling on TAT. Anyone have any that’s-a-bad-idea thoughts?

  55. 55
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    RMD — the Cowboys with Camels think it’s a pretty good idea.

    When we supposed to hear on the BigWell (4-numbers) in the SE?

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — could you maybe add TAT to the catalyst list? That way, we can keep track on how BADLY they miss their own deadlines.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    re 54. I’ve been fairly unimpressed in the 6 months or so I’ve been in. Not selling yet but am a bit tired of their lack of sticktuitiveness on some projects. We’re growing organically. Ooops, delay, delay, delay, let’s go buy something, etc. On the big well, it was not clear on the last presentation which isn’t saying much because that was a very disjointed presentation. I think, that is is a 4Q event.

  58. 58
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Summary of some sell siders re SDRL. Earnings & EBITDA had upside surprise vs consensus. Mostly higher contract drilling revenue. Dividend last 3 quarters .55/.60/.61. Just declared the .61. ex 9/8/10. Backlog 12.2B. They are know as the great consolidator. Have done some small accretive deals this year(Scorpion & ALY). Their other claim to fame is that they have a very modern fleet. Consensus from GOM spill is that rigs will have to be able to do more to deal with new rules. From their CC, the biggest opportunity going forward is with the $224B that Brazil will be spending. They have their largest rigs in Brazil thru ’15. One reason for the dividend being secure. Bull case is high dividend security due to: 1. high contract coverage. 2. Reduction in Capex going forward. Only have 1 new rig without contract. 3. starting 10 rigs over the next 12 months. Is the top pick in this space from the Citigroup analyst. Don’t know his reputation. Bear case. More rules and regs with more areas deciding on moritoriums. I believe Norway has held up some drilling and of course this is a Norwegian company. Has very little exposure to GOM. I will be adding to my income line-up of Z names: LINE, VNR & WHX.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Thanks much Tom. VNR isn’t one I own by the way.

  60. 60
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: I still give you credit when it goes up. Maybe I will get you to look at again in the future. I know I am on my own with that name. I also use GGN & NLY for income as well. NOT Z names.

  61. 61
    RMD Says:

    Prichard note on REXX’s ~$9,800/acre sale after factoring in other assets and drilling carry.
    GST :Leads them to GST’s 34,000 Marcellus acres (6,000 in Butler Cty like REXX); at $4,500/acre a JV by GST would equal the whole EV of $152mm. Oh, I wish I didn’t think GST mgt was so dopey.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Oil moving on $74.30.

    Amazing the 180 degree spin on CNBC. Talk of double dip “dead” or “almost dead” based on 1 day of numbers. Again, be careful where you get your news.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    RMD – did you listen to their last presentation? At least they have how to do that down pat.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    KOG starting to participate.

  65. 65
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Two names restricted @ CSFB: PBR & OEX (symbol OGXp3). I have no idea who OEX is. Was restricted on a research report today.

  66. 66
    RMD Says:

    td: I’ve been in VNR long enough to understand what they are up to I think (hope).

  67. 67
    andy Says:

    tomd – re SDRL – news said 2 firms raised their target price. do u know what to?? also, do u know 2011 earnings est? thks

  68. 68
    cargocult Says:

    Is it safe to get back in the water with SD?

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Cargo – Ummm. I am thinking about. But only with money I don’t care about getting back quickly. Probably a trade in there for a quick pop but so far I have not bit.

  70. 70
    cargocult Says:

    Sort of like the money I have in Diana Shipping.

  71. 71
    cargocult Says:

    SD Oct $5 are .13.

  72. 72
    ram Says:

    Cargocult – what a tease.

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    I still like HK and it is still cheap relative to its peer group.

  74. 74
    tomdavis12 Says:

    67 Andy: CSFB went from 131 Norwegian Kroner to 150. It is currently 145. No big raise. In US$ they are at 2.60 ’10, $3.03 ’11 & 2.54 ’12. They do think cash flow can support a $4.00/yr dividend although they do not expect. Citi is at $3.17 ’10, $3.57 ’11 & 3.60 ’12. MS @ $2.73 ’10, $2.80 ’11 & $2.80 ’12. UBS was the other to raise. To get that report I will use up a favor. Not important enough to me.

  75. 75
    tomdavis12 Says:

    66 RMD Thanks. I will need all the help I can find. Thanks for the offer.

  76. 76
    cargocult Says:

    bought SD Dec 5’s for .31

  77. 77
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — well, well, well… not so shabby after all!

    Phew.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    By the way, S&P at 1080 appears to be right at the convergence of the 200 and 50 day moving averages. I’ve got an email in with Nicky.

    Jb, any thoughts on the S&P from your perspective?

  79. 79
    Popeye Says:

    Yesterdays KOG trades are looking good today.

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — you don’t always get to catch the slowest, fattest antelope in the herd. But the point is, to grab one, when the time is right. No grab, no feast.

    Still don’t think it’s a buy-and-hold mrkt tho… unless you can stand the volatility.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    WLT and WLL both up $4+.

  82. 82
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — when underwriters exercise the shoe on a stock issuance… do they ever go overboard? (and sell shares they don’t own? i.e. short the stock?)

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    BOP – They have been known to short it first.

    Email from Nicky:
    50sma at 1081. expect a pullback to say 1065 – 70 before moving higher.

  84. 84
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Question goes to whether KOG is going to have a tough time breaking back up thru 2.75. It WILL go higher than that… just wondering how much wood one has to chop first. Thanks.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Hear ya BOP, good thought that one.

  86. 86
    andy Says:

    bop – -that “hey batter, batter, batter” worked pretty good. have to remember that.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    I’m going to lighten up on more sensitive ZIM positions before the close.

  88. 88
    RMD Says:

    ELON got mentioned in Prichard piece. It’s an unprofitable smart meter co. with Duke and AEP contracts. Anyone know the co. or the products? New CEO last month, thinks co’s problem is marketing , not product. New product intro meeting in NYC 9/8/10.

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — GST… any thoughts on the assertion that GST’s Marcellus acreage –alone — supports the EV here? So, getting E. Tx for free??

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    RMD – wow, that’s a name from the past. Great idea, adds to unemployment rolls but really those young men who irritate my dogs so much each month are underutilized. In the past, there was a cost sharing issue with the utility and the consumer that was the holdup. Basically no one wanted to pay for the tech. Now the tech much really be cheap. Have not looked at it in a long, long time.

  91. 91
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    KOG — would like to bop Lynn in the head with a rogue pitch sometimes… but, KOG at $2.50 was just Baby Chickens (cheep cheep cheep).

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    BOP – That is what it looks like to me. Pinging Reef for comments on what he thinks of their Marcellus acreage, have not done the leg work myself to check exactly where it is. I think they are alongside one major player but have not yet focused in on it.

  93. 93
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — GST Marcellus… they are alongside several players. Their acreage is dotted about the countryside. That is why it makes precisely ZERO sense for GST to operate any wells there… but 100% sense to farmout/JV/whatever, to realize the value of those acres. They don’t have a concentrated block… but the stuff they do have seems to be in the right place(s).

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    BOP – I do understand it is largely not contiguous. That will get you a big discount on a per acre basis. Locations still matters. Saw a report this morning saying something along the lines of “see, these guys got almost $10,000 and so these guys should get something close”. I rather think not unless they are core of the core. But still, no value on it is probably too little and that’s what it appears to me they are getting or somewhere close or just that their e.Tx stuff is way under valued.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    VTZ – don’t know if you saw my rant this morning but how in the world could a company boycott oil sands crude? I mean, it goes into a pipe and crosses the border and gets put in tanks with other crudes. So how could the “boycott” be anything other than a marketing ploy.

  96. 96
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #38, Zman, thank you much for the very kind words, I appreciate it…

    #84, BOP, KOG, technically speaking, the intraday rally did stop right at $2.75 price, and this matches up with the 20 day SMA at $2.80, so intrday this was, so far, a decent place to take short term profits, I’m thinking that if the mkt cooperates, for swing trades, multi day, the most significant resistance right now is the 200 day SMA at $3.00…

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    JB – any thoughts on the broad markets. 1080 / 1081 seems to have stopped us dead in our tracks. Jobless claims tomorrow, payrolls on Friday some significant hurdles.

  98. 98
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB — you says stuffs likes that… i just gots to go votes for ya. Thank you!

  99. 99
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #97, Zman, going to take look at broad picture tonight…

    #98, BOP, thank you much…

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks man, just wanted to get opinion on it.

  101. 101
    RMD Says:

    RBC noting Pemex is considering opening northern state of Coahuila (across border from TX) to pvt. co.s doing shale exploration.
    Oh good, more gas supply unrelated (?) to economics.

  102. 102
    ram Says:

    Back?

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Ram – not in stable fashion. I spoke with GKG briefly and they are having "issues". Phone then went dead.

  104. 104
    VTZ Says:

    Re 95 – I saw, but I've been having problems with the site all day. It's basically a mini-version of my rant. There is no way that any North American corporation could guarantee it's not consuming energy from oil sands given the amount blended as feedstocks to refineries.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Thanks fro trying VTZ, I’m still barely able to get in here.

    We’re on the backup site at:
    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    test, test, test

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    I plan to post here and on the backup site tomorrow.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    They tell me we are back up. Site seems to be working without delay.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Judge gives Obama the stiff arm on the moratorium

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68050620100901

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    test test test

  111. 111
    ram Says:

    HERE.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Thanks Ram, I think we will be good to go on this site in the morning. Fingers crossed.

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