Wrap – Week Ended 08/27/10

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In progress .....

Holdings Watch:  This is definitely a renter's market for the moment so we've adopted a hit and run style for the next couple of weeks meaning trades are abnormally quick in the options portfolios. This week's closed trades:


  • HAL – Sold the 15 HAL $28 September calls for $1.51, up 42%.
  • MMR - Sold the (10) MMR $11 calls with the stock at $12 for $1.38, up 28%.
  • MMR - Sold half of the $15 September calls (25) for $0.48, up 154%. I continue to own the rest of this position and the $14s.


Natural Gas Price Collapse: Natural gas is hitting 52 week lows on a daily basis. Having touched $5 as recently as August ---, we are now at $3.65, falling as the summer heat fades and the prospect for tropical action in the Gulf of Mexico, while far from over, fails to gather a premium in the strip. I look to peak storage near 3,700 Bcf which should support gas prices over $4 but things are already pretty sloppy as we approached the second shoulder season of the year. We get another supply data point on Monday and flattish or slightly lower production could spur the front month back towards $4 and the strip back towards $4.50. This is data for the month of June --- so it will probably be too early to see an inkling of the coming faster decline in the Gulf of Mexico. Louisiana has been slowing however and that along with a flattish production in the "other states" category would be welcome news for prices.

Fed Watch: Ben pleased the crowd by saying he would not let the economy fall apart again. Details were somewhat scarce in his speech.

In progress....

7 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 08/27/10”

  1. 1
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Posted a long term Nat Gas chart, under UNG-Nat Gas long term, the stockcharts commodity charts are a blend of futures contracts so the actual prices are not exact, but it would be very interesting to review the fundamental conditions in the Sept of 01 and Jan of 02 time frame , where prices bottomed out at $1.88 and $1.96 and compare to current conditions….

  2. 2
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Added a KOG daily with MACD, RSI and OBV indicators, very interesting bullish OBV divergence, also added UNG and NAT GAS futures charts with MACD, RSI indicators which may be helpful in the near future, added an updated SD chart with indicators….

  3. 3
    mimster90 Says:

    Thanks JB, voted

  4. 4
    Jerome Blank Says:

    mimster, thank you….

  5. 5
    mimster90 Says:

    SSN news
    Buyer notifies DD is done and Goshen deal will close on Sept. 7.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Mim – thanks, welcome news, will have an updated SSN back of the envelop table in the post tomorrow. Did you see my HBP answer on the Friday post?

  7. 7
    mimster90 Says:

    I sure did zman, thank you very much.

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