29
Jun

Troubled Tuesday

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Market Sentiment Watch: Boring summer trading.  No, worse than that, nonsensical summer trading as BEXP announced boosted production guidance due to better than expected well results ... and fell 2% for it. Was this buy the rumor sell the news? Nope, the stock had been under-performing the market and group for the last couple of weeks. So what gives? Your guess is as good as mine. And my thought is that we've seen this before, especially in the summer.  This does not feel like a time to be bold with one's trading. Speaking of summer, when was the last time we had a Tuesday that didn't look ugly on the open? I can't recall but today we're getting another dose of opening ugly as the market fears a potential slowing in China (again) and Greek workers protest over austerity cuts (again). Volumes are light and the early direction a stock takes on news often guides the market's sentiment towards the name for the next several days. More on BEXP below but the trend is annoying to say the lease and bodes for continued cautious trading.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (f=62.8, last read 63.3) 



In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Crack Spread Update
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – BEXP update (from yesterday with table added)
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio):

    • $6,000
    • 99% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades: None
  • ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)
    • $5,000
    • 23% Cash
    • Yesterday’s Trades:
      • BEXP – Added (10) BEXP $17.50 Calls for $0.90 with the stock at $17.30 on the open after a good looking operations update.
      • BEXP – Added (50) July $20 Calls fro $0.15.


Commodity Watch

Crude oil eased $0.61 to close at $78.25 yesterday in quiet trading. The weakness was attributed to Alex's less threatening path. I'd point out that 2 of 3 Mexican crude export ports are still closed due to the storm and a number of Gulf operators are shutting in west and central Gulf production just to be safe. This morning crude is trading down nearly $2 with weak equity futures.


Natural gas dropped 3.6% to close at $4.73 yesterday. The August contract takes over as the front month today and the changeover may add a little volatility this week however the direction of Alex and the present cooloff are likely to keep prices below $5 in the near term. The 12 month strip is still comfortably over $5. This morning gas is trading off nearly a dime.


Crack Spread Update


Key Thoughts:

  • 2Q margins on average came in 9% above year ago levels, the first year over year increase since 3Q08.
  • 2Q EPS estimates are largely improved for the group
  • Waiting and watching, as despite the improved news, the market doesn't seem to care.


Stuff We Care About Today

BEXP Operations Update

  • 3 new wells (I was saying 2 to 4 wells would be available any day now), rates of 3,070, 2302, 1847 boepd. 
  • Initial production from their long lateral program now averages 2,650 BOEpd (see table below).
  • Production Guidance Hiked:

    • 2Q production target upgraded to a range of 7,000 to 7,500 boepd.  Past mid point was 6,500 boepd.
    • Oil is the biggest piece of the growth, 2Q volumes set to be about 5,150 bopd, guidance was 4,420 bopd.
  • See adding wells faster in the second half (adding additional access to another frac crew in August)
  • Will add a 6th rig in September (this was as planned, adding another rig every four months until they get to 8 rigs next year. 
  • The Three Forks well in Rough Rider has not yet spud (USEG spilled beans on this Friday), now called a 3Q event.
  • Upcoming catalysts:

    • Initial Pale Rider well, in Roosevelt county, Montana, will have results in July. BEXP has 73,000 net acres in the county and another 9K in Montana and positive news here along with EOG's Carat well could mean a third core area is in the offing for BEXP
    • Another Rough Rider area well will have 38 frac stages, another new record.
  • Nutshell: Stock didn't react to strong news on guidance ... we could get news from Montana in the next week or two and that almost has to boost the outlook here.


TGA Operations Update

  • My first TGA review can be seen in this post
  • Today TGA is announcing a successful horizontal, multi stage frac on their primary asset in Egypt, the West Gharib field

    • Initial rate of 300 to 400 bopd
    • Nothing barn burner at the moment in the rest of the release but will incorporate in my modeling thoughts.

Other Stuff

  • TSLA going public today. Deal coming at $17, just above the range, but with 20% more shares.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • NE raised to Outperfrom at FBR
  • ATLS started at Buy at Jefferies with a $46 target

133 Responses to “Troubled Tuesday”

  1. 1
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BEXP…held right at the lower daily triangle trendline yesterday, but looks probable to open a bit lower this morning, what's interesting is that BEXP holds its P&F buy signal until a print of $15.50, which closes the gap from 5/26/10…BEXP is still trading well above long term trendline support…so if BEXP does get near or prints $15.50, this could set up to be a classic bear trap buy opportunity…    

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    From Nicky – I am looking for a low in this timeframe – 29th June – 1st July and then as long as 1042 holds back above 1130….

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    2 to 5% down opens across the board.

  4. 4
    rseidman Says:

    Very slow site today

  5. 5
    rseidman Says:

    Better now

  6. 6
    bondbuddha Says:

    No problems with site at all recently here

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    RS – thanks I know,, just got off the phone, I told them to fix or I'm switching.

  8. 8
    ram Says:

    It was slow getting in the site to log in for me.  Now that I am in, it's not fun in E&P land.  We will every return to the glory times of Jan 2008 to end of June 2008?

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    BEXP – almost at your point JB, down of low volume again.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    About the only good thing I can say about this morning's open is that credit is no where near as red as stocks.  Since this is a debt/credit-focused world, the fact that debt is less concerned than equities is appropriate (and would be worrisome, if it was the other way around… like it was from March to August 2008). 
     
    So, if debt is not going to collapse in a wet puddle on the floor, then equities should stabilize here too.  Pretty red, as I type this… but, just sayin'
     
    TED +38.6 bps … still moving tighter (better)
     
    IG +4 3/8 bps wider today
     
    HY -3/4 pts lower today
     
    KOG almost in the Swing Trade Buy Zone of sub 3.30…

  11. 11
    john11 Says:

    Site very slow here.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    If the site goes down again please refer to this one:

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/2010/06/29/tuesday-backup-post-2/

    and bookmark the root for future reference. I'm on the phone with my host now.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP – don't know how long this site will stay up. My host is a collective moron.

  14. 14
    AAA Says:

    Site fine here.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    S&P back to 1047 in a heart beat.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    AAA – I think they just rebooted the server. I think they need to buy a new one. Waiting on a call back from someone in charge.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    EOG now down $8 in 2 days, seems overdone. WLL making a similar % move.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    With respect to economists and their forecasts…. about anything, really (although they really blew it on "consumer confidence" this morning)… do those guys actually live in the REAL WORLD?
     
    I know Noble-Prize-Winning Paul Krugman sure doesn't… but, don't think many of them do.
     
    Rick Santelli should be sainted, when all this is said and done (and it will be done, someday).  He "gets it."  But, he's a bond-guy… not an economist.  'Nuff said.
     
    Rant over.

  19. 19
    milepost_43 Says:

    Details on Bakken to XL pipeline…
    Pipeline Proposed to Connect Basin with Eastern Montana – On June 9, Quintana Capital Group filed a letter of intent with the North Dakota Public Service Commission for a new crude oil pipeline project that would connect the major producing regions of the Williston Basin with the Keystone XL Pipeline in Eastern Montana. Quintana is currently meeting with producers/shippers in the basin to gain the necessary support to move forward.

    Project Details

    Capacity: 100,000 BOPD initially; expandable to 120,000 BOPD

    Header size: 110 miles of 10” pipe and 55 miles of 12” pipe

    Truckline size: 145 miles of 16” pipe

    Estimated cost: $250 million

    Origin: Williams, Mountrail and McKenzie counties

    Terminates: Interconnect with the Keystone XL Pipeline near Baker, MT

    Timeline: If adequate support is obtained during an upcoming open season, pipeline could be in service March 2013.

  20. 20
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit market still down considerably… but no where NEAR as goofy as stocks.
     
    IG +4 3/8 bps
     
    HY -11/16 pts

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Thanks MP, that one should further shrink differentials

    BOP – thanks and no kidding on economists. Did you see Shanghai fell 4.3% because the conference board had a mistake in their construction square footage math? In a model they just started printing the results on in May after 4 years of working on it. I mean, wow, come on, who do you hang?

  22. 22
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HK…$16.50 corresponds with lower daily channel line support and long term P&F trendline support, if HK gets down there, this woiuld be a good place to consider for long trys…UNG broke below it's lower channel line, will update when I get a handle on the technical structure 

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Here's the consumer confidence story by the way:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-confidence-plummets-on-job-worries-2010-06-29-102500

     

    I'm commenting a lot in part to make sure that the tin cans and string holding the site together are still working.

  24. 24
    choices Says:

    add to BOP cmts re: credit markets:  junk bond stks JNK/HYG off 1.2%, which is weak relatively

  25. 25
    elduque Says:

    TED spread narrowing, baltic still falling

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    S&P down 30, very close to Nicky's must hold level. Which is the lows from late May and early June.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Please bookmark this site:

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com

    Just in case.

  28. 28
    bondbuddha Says:

    My credit markets,  10 yr making crazy new lows 2.98%, 2 yr Treas at all time highs/lows, collateral at insane new highs as everyone rushes to " our " bond worlds. 

  29. 29
    Pati Says:

    Re SSN, my 3K shares that appeared yesterday have disappeared.  Now they say I will get the 7500 I put in for — in 7 days.   Wierd.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Site acting hinky again. Nicky can't get in. Will try to get email comments from her.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Pati – interesting, I too got a full allocation. SSN largely ignoring the market at the moment. Should get an update on the rights offering either Wednesday or Thursday.

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    INflation just not a concern… DEflation scares the sh*t outta the bond markets.  Govts, central bankers, Presidents, Unions, economists… none of them can "do" anything about DEflation, once it gets up a head of steam.
     
    Heard a talking head on CNBC this a.m. talking about "what's going to get the housing market going again."  Like she was looking for "someone" to boost the housing market.  News flash = the number one driver of housing sales (in a normal world) is JOBS and CONFIDENCE that you are not going to lose yours.  None of our govt's current policy direction is about creating jobs in the private sector.  You can "create" jobs in the public sector… but those require taking money from the private sector to fund them.  Hence, less money in the private sector and more jobs lost there.  Note to Washington… it 's just not that tough to understand that concept, is it??

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    High Yield index bouncing off the low… now at – 5/8 pt

  34. 34
    john11 Says:

    Street Account reporting that Pritchard BP pre-open note indicated that relief well interception of the casing is roughly 8 to 10 days away and could lead to group rally.  Says possibility of Macondo no longer flowing in 14 days,,,,..
    anybody have this note?

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    re 32 Amen. Jobs and confidence. Not $8,000 checks. Good news is the president is on TV saying he's aware of headwinds and skittishness in the markets.

  36. 36
    bondbuddha Says:

    Picking up WHX in the low 16;s , wooo hooo that's some nice yield

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    John – no but that would be pretty lucky. Coast Guard report (and they have been pretty optimistic on time schedules in the past) said mid July over the weekend. Pritchard would be looking for a hit before mid July and on the first try. I agree it could cause a rally in the BP spill names, and maybe some service names. I don't really see a benefit to the onshore E&P sector.

  38. 38
    Geno Says:

    Just saw an article on CNN that BP is within 20 feet horizonally of the well.  Also as I had thought a guy by the name of John Wright is doing the job and he is now 40 for 40 in kills.  So the new time estimate may be right.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Bond – yep. I'd add but I've got a full plate of energy yield at the moment with that and LINE.

     

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Geno – thanks. That would be a reason to rally BP for sure. Hmmmm. I've been away from the name since my last beat down in the Junes. Do you have a link? Will look myself as well.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Here it is:

    http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/06/28/bp-one-relief-well-within-20-feet-of-oil-gusher/

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Notice that link still says early August?

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    I may nibble some July's as I'd bet they adjust that date late in the process because they don't want another missed scheduling gaff.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    ZTRADES – ZIM

    BEXP – Added (10) more July $17.50 Calls for $0.34 with the stock at 15.76. These are the same ones I added for $0.90 yesterday.

    BP – Added (10) July $31 calls for $0.60 with the stock at 27.70. Two comments in last 2 days from BP and Coast Guard that the relief wells are closer than previously thought. I don't plan to hold through the actual intersection of the wellbore as there is still a good chance they miss on the first try.

  45. 45
    Geno Says:

    The pace will so down they will have to run a rangeing tool (kind of like a metal finder gets well bore orientation) about every 60 feet which probably means 3-4 runs at two (?) days per run plus drilling

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    From Nicky earlier:

    Morning all. It goes without saying we are into support at the 1040 level. If we can hold it which looks very doubtful we head back to make new highs above 1130 on the next swing up. If we take it out then only a retrace to around the 1090 level.

    Also from Nicky:

    an interesting article on the ‘fundamentals’

    http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/economy/commentary-mainmenu-43/3728-national-debt-at-tipping-point

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Geno – when they miss (assuming they do), do they back off and then sidetrack, plugging the original track? Also, do they trip out to change the bit before attempting to intersect the casing?

  48. 48
    ratberto Says:

    38 – Wright, now of Boots and Coots, was on the radio this morning, sounding confident and not over-promising.  As was the rig crew on Nightline last night… there was a lot of gray hair on that rig, which was reassuring; that perhaps they really have got the old hands on the job.

  49. 49
    Geno Says:

    They will change bits to a mill type rather than drilling bit.  Depending on where they are trying to intercept, if they miss they might be able to steer it around and then attempt again rather then backing up.  When John Wright drilled our relief well we actually spiralled around the casing and then hit it in the top of a collar on the first try.

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Geno — thank you for your expert commentary.  Learning a lot from you.

  51. 51
    jat Says:

    Re China, it's possible that Chinese investors don't care that much about American estimates of their leading indicators:
    From the Barclays desk this morning:
     
    Macro:    The Shanghai index was down 4.3% last night.  Here is the thing; the real reason for the weakness is likely chatter that the Chinese Agricultural Bank IPO pricing range is much lower than expected.  Combine that with fears that the Chinese PMI (released tomorrow night) will be weaker than expected and you have plenty of reason for the sell off.   However, Blooomberg is focusing on The Conference Board (a NY based research group) revision of its leading economic index for China from 1.7% gain in June to a .3% gain).  The revision was due to a miscalculation in their prior estimate for floor space on which construction had begun.  In any light, commodities are weaker (copper down 3% and crude off 2%) while the DXY is in the green, up 55bps.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Thanks Geno, much appreciated.

    Jat – 4 years and you'd think they could have gotten the modeling right.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    TSLA at $17.75. I'm not buying but find that interesting.

  54. 54
    Geno Says:

    Halliburton is in the process of buying Boots and Coots supposed to be complete this summer.

  55. 55
    choices Says:

    Critical article re:  missed opportunity from liberal commentator-it is all about jobs, stupid.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/opinion/29herbert.html?hp

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Geno – yep, liking my HAL holding, need to add the stock down here too. Favorite movie of mine.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Anyone have a handle on how to value TSLA, now $18? I was digging into days back but read that the CEO had joking compared himself to Tony Stark (Ironman) and was a little turned off by that. The tech seems good, the economies of scale will no doubt turn them profitable sometime in 2011+ or maybe 2012 when they get the sedan out. But this seems hypey to me. Or is it the GOOG or car companies?

  58. 58
    ilikericky Says:

    Geno re:49 Please can you explain what is meant by the mill type?I understand drill bit. Hence why no drill bit? Also when you say  they steer around it what do you actually mean.My thinking was the well is vertical then you would intercept at 90 degrees.Thanks so much for this I to am learning.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    SSN green. I'm liking seeing that pre rights closing. I would imagine that we see a day or part of a day of selling after the rights are in hand as people flip for the arbitrage. If you want more, that may be the best time to add. I still think the valuation here is easily $1+.

  60. 60
    cargocult Says:

    SSN is a small green raft in a sea of red.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Re 58 – it's a bit designed to cut through the casing.

    On the intersection, when you drill horizontal you do not go down and then over, you instead build an angle or arch, this is the heal area of the horizontal. In this case they are in a steep angle to intersect so they drill slowly down, getting closer and closer?

  62. 62
    Popeye Says:

    Just a guess here but a mill is used for cutting metal not drilling earth.

  63. 63
    AAA Says:

    Regarding the relief well, BP has a really good video on it.  Don't have the link at hand.  They were very confident, but of course they have been the entire time.
    Not being very knowedgeable about drilling, I wondered what happens if the mud from the relief well goes up outside the casing of the original well, perhaps due to damage to the casing or cement?  Is it possible they could encounter a similar situation as they did with the top kill? 

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Popeye, yes. For those interested in the lingo on a more in depth level I suggest picking up a copy of:

     

    Nontechnical Guide to Petroleum Geology, Exploration, Drilling and Production. Very good book and I actually took a class from the author.

    http://www.amazon.com/Nontechnical-Petroleum-Exploration-Drilling-Production/dp/087814823X

  65. 65
    Geno Says:

    It is a bit that is conical shape more like a drill bit then a tri cone or traditional drilling bit. 

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    AAA – Lost circulation into the original well bore? I don't think that could happen.

  67. 67
    ilikericky Says:

    Re46: Zman and any one else-as someone who lives across the pond we are quiet amased by the debt situation in the USA.As you know we have had our austerity measures given to us and there will be big cuts plus tax increases.My question is as the article says you reach tipping point and then you go down hill,what I liked about the article was the last paragraph…re the TEA party. Is this movement actaually growing in the USA or not and how do you think they will do in November? …I know its not an Oil question so I hope people dont mind…….. 

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Market back to LOD, just nothing to boost confidence at the moment. We get ADP tomorrow and that could easily take S&P to new lows on the year. On Friday, Payrolls number is looking for a negative 120K. I guess no speech following the number release from the president this month.

  69. 69
    Geno Says:

    Once you cut the old hole open you have a mud column above you and you start pumping mud to kill well so you have weight on bottom rather then trying to pump mud all the way down the hole like they tried on the top kill.

  70. 70
    AAA Says:

    This is the video I mentioned.  http://bp.concerts.com/gom/reliefwellgraphics062710.htm
    Z, I don't know the terminology.  The guy on the BP vid says the original well bore fills with mud.  What if it doesn't?  What if it just pours out around the casing, like it did before?

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    re 67. I don't mind at all but I don't have a good handle on that. I think that the Democrats are going to have a very tough time in November if the jobs trajectory is headed south.

  72. 72
    ilikericky Says:

    re:64 Zman thanks just ordered the book

  73. 73
    elduque Says:

    RE monthly figures any comment

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    AAA – OK, I see. Here you have a heavy column of mud poured in to kill the well via the new hole. In the original well, they opted to take the mud out, so it didn't flow up the side of the casing, they literally took it out and replaced it with saltwater. The saltwater was not heavy enough to control the well. So gas came in via a breach in the casing (probably a bad cement job). In this case they will put heavy kill mud in the well to stop the flow. That really should work. The mud would not exit the original wellbore the same way the gas and oil came in (which would be downhole to the intersection point). Topkill didn't work because it didn't have enough weight of column mud on it. This will have another 2 miles or so of mud column weight than  that at the point of interesection. Geno and Wyoming feel free to point out where I have misstated anything.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    And AAA, thanks for the video.

  76. 76
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Art Hogan sure can talk faaaaaaaaaast.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Re 72. It is a fascinating read but that's coming from me and I'm not known to be interesting at cocktail parties. It also makes a great reference for this site when guys like Geno, Reef, TexW, West, Wyoming start getting chatty.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    BOP – what's he saying, he's a very good guy and very smart.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Eld – had not refreshed lately for914 data, will check.

  80. 80
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I spoke to Art once on the phone… don't remember him speed-talking like that.  He was on CNBC, pointing out that he thinks stocks are cheap on a forward P/E basis.  Agreed, he is smart.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Natural gas monthly not out yet, 914 data just published.

    Lower 48 volumes flat month to month. About all I can say about that is at least they didn't go up. "Other states" up a touch along with Louisiana, Texas off slightly, Gulf off more but that's probably just data, not a hard number yet. I'll have the slide show for production out with tomorrow's post.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    I used to work with him, good grasp of markets including energy. He's not wrong on valuations. He is however more often than not bullish.  Did he give odds on a double dip?

  83. 83
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #82 not that I heard… but didn't hear his entire spiel.  Was trying to get on a conf call at the same time…

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Reuters story out saying 12 E&P companies are seeing shareholder demands for assurances regarding the safety of shale drilling. Also says some state regulators are pushing for restrictions on fraccing. The push for assurances is according to a tree hugger fund, Green Century Capital Management, who claims that for the 12 companies in question, 21 to 42% of shares want enviro assurances.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    You know it's an ugly day when the only things up in the port are SSN and BP.

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks BOP, just curious. Market doing best to stay above 1040. Last hour going to be interesting.

  87. 87
    baylor3217 Says:

    With the new fckeditor enhancements, it looks like we can no longer make updates to the site through iPhone.  I'm running version 4.0 of the iPhone OS now.
    Anyone else having this problem?

  88. 88
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thoughts on HAL position here on this almost 6% pullback for July options?

  89. 89
    West Says:

    I guess I'm confused on the SSN deal. Schwab told me that there is no way that they can tell me the # of shares that I will get until after the close on June 30. They do debit the acount for the full amount of the offer that you have chosen and hold this until instructions are received DPC for actual number of shares allotted. Since there are 12.5 million shares to be issued it would only take 569 subscriptions for the offer D : 22,058 ADSs to cover that amount. Schwab said that these type offers can take from 1 day to 2 weeks to receive the instructions from Company (SSN) as to final allocation…….So I guess I'm curious how some people know how many shares they will be receiving prior to this closing and final tally?

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Baylor – I will check into the fkeditor issue. May just kill it.

    HAL – I like more than ever down here. Not the action but the name.

    West – my account WAS showing the shares in the account for future date closing. Now they are gone. Very odd. And yes, the cash is debited.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Site issues. Between me and my IT guy, who does not have control of the server, we have opted to go with a virtual private server having 0 confidence in our current host, which means we will be switching which is more than a bit of trouble but necessary. This will occur in mid July. My apologies again for the slowness or the lack of access at times of late. We will get it solved and in the meantime, if you see slowness, let me know and we will activate the back up site if I already have not. I will do my best to force my host to keep the site running as smoothly as their incompetence allows.

  92. 92
    john11 Says:

    West, re SSN  Fidelity told me pretty much the same thing after they checked with reorg dept.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    That is one pretty well developed tropical storm:

    http://tropics.hamweather.com/2010/atlantic/alex/clir/latest.html

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Bastardi still saying Alex could really step up in intensity. Saying it could be like Ike, with a drop to 960 millibars (980 now) and suddenly turn into a 3 to 3.9 type cane.  The official forecast still says a 1 develops (it's just under the threshold now at 70 mph winds) and goes to Brownsville.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    V – Seeing stories about gold potentially going parabolic from here.

  96. 96
    elduque Says:

    Gold may go higher, but I would rather own commodities that the economy needs. 

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Re Alex – Bastardi now saying Alex going south of Brownsville. Opposite of his comments from yesterday. So no jeopardy for the Gulf Coast but trouble for Mexico exports of crude to the U.S.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    TSLA approaching $19. Hmmm. Everything else (aside from SSN) worsening.

  99. 99
    elduque Says:

    I assume that AEZ would be a strong buy recommendation at this level.
     

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    Eld – It is at many brokerage firms. The recent move up in the Bakkens was pretty tepid compared to these 4 to 7% moves down today.  Oil is only off 3.7% at the moment so this more money coming out of the "risk trade" at the moment. Small caps taking it on the chin worse than large caps of course. Coals getting bashed as well. Volumes aren't "get me out large", just no buyers in front of quarter end. Long term I think that name does well unless they can't complete the wells in a uniform manner. Next 2 are long laterals, and they are 2 for 2 for good completions so far. Should see next news in 2 weeks. Not sure how management feels about going the BEXP route and pressing every well or if they save them for the 2Q release.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    TSLA at $20. Hmmm.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    TARP may end early to fund Financial Overhaul Bill. And you thought TARP would be paid back and closed? Ha.

  103. 103
    PackMan Says:

    Well, this is fun….
    Our names now on 7th straight day of being hit w/ the ugly stick.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    Pack – Sound like we are due a bounce, window dressing should be done today but this feels more like summer apathy combined with big picture fear.  Technicals looks pretty threatening at the moment.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Got this from a friend:

    Just Spoke With BIG VIX Trader June 29, 2010 Tue 11:28 AM CT He didn't want
    his name or firm name used, but here is what one of the largest traders in
    the VIX options at CBOE just said to me:

    "I am surprised, but the volatility is not popping in the VIX. Not much in
    the way of buying in the VIX calls options. We lightened up on the offers,
    thinking we'd see a buying frenzy and might get runover, but no, just the
    opposite, the volatility move was met with increased selling. That's not
    what you'd expect to see if the institutional traders were scared and
    looking for more downside. "

    Takeaway: Neither our hedgie indicator nor the pit traders felt much panic,
    but both were loaded up and ready to rock n roll. If we can't see a push in
    VIX over 35 then its a question of who blinks first and then we might see a
    wave of selling in VIX, would might spark a minor or major rally into
    tomorrow's quarter end and ADP lookahead.

  106. 106
    Jerome Blank Says:

    This neckline area where were at now on this head and shoulders formation on the S&P probably has more viewers than soccer

  107. 107
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BOP…CIGX is at your $1.55 buy spot…

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    JB – hear ya, SP just took out 1040.

  109. 109
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – I think you had mentioned earlier that TSLA would be similar to GOOG.  I don't see TSLA ever  making money.  They recently borrowed money from the FEDS for their green endeavor.  How many well off people in this economy is going to buy an electric car that looks good that goes a couple hundred miles and then you have to plug into into a cord and wait so you can make your return.  I don't see the hype.  TSLA can't even guarantee that they can start producing a vehicle in time for a 2012 roll out.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Ram – Not defending them but they actually produce and sell cars now. For about $100K a pop. The $50K 7 seater sedan comes out in 2012. They just took relative new factory space to scale up operations. The cars have performed well to date so if economies of scale bring the price down, I don't see a reason to think that with higher volumes and a recovered economy in 2012 or later, that the company could be profitable.  I'm not saying it's at all worth this price as I honestly have no model or valuation to work off of. But they should be able to get to profitability down the road again with scale.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    Email from Nicky:

    Close is all important and we need to hold this 1040/42 level.  A move above 1049 likely indicates the 21 hour down cycle low is in and we should see a bounce back towards 1069 and maybe higher.

  112. 112
    jiveyjr Says:

    BOP…if you're on the PPT; get to buy'in

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Whatever happened to the flash crash cure in congress?  Guess it doesn't matter now that we are below that level.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Just like this market

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    The lower the market goes, the higher TSLA goes, now at $23.

  116. 116
    Jerome Blank Says:

    BEXP holding the $15.50 P&F box…

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    TSLA at $25, only mention because I enjoy kicking myself in the head.

    mightaswellbebeerthirty

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, it's actually been this weak all day, so didn't get much weaker when the market caved. Are we oversold yet on the S&P?

  119. 119
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #118, based on the S&P close, did the neckline break or not? If yes, can't be good news , if not, bulls still in the game…Key helpful indicater right now is probably treasury notes…I added them to the charts

  120. 120
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    JB #107 — thanks!  Have been buying CIGX all day today (well, HeadTrader has been doing it for us).  We got the last of today's slug at 1.57, missed the 1.55.  Maybe tomorrow we'll get a chance again.
     
    Everyone I talk to is bummed the mrkt is down.  But no one is "scared."  Coupla PMs bought SPX puts a while back, thinking this might happen, but they aren't selling their long positions.  Consistant with the VIX comments above, I think.

  121. 121
    john11 Says:

    KOG out with an interim op. update…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kodiak-Oil-Gas-Corp-Provides-prnews-4173975754.html?x=0

  122. 122
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG provides an operations update…. 

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the heads up fellas, will have comments in a bit and in the morning.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Quick thoughts on the KOG update.

    1) wow these guys are slow to complete wells

    2) can't be upset about the rate on well #13 (think it's 13, will check)

    3) 3 more wells waiting on completion, not far away but still well behind where we thought from the 1Q call.

    4) Their Three Forks test was set to spud in the first half. Now it sounds like it has not yet spud and will be completed in the 4th quarter. Slow, slow, slow.

    5) They are drilling outside of the FBIR in grizzly which is a good idea.

    6) If I were a modeling analyst on the name I'd be thinking to push numbers out into the future as their time lines are soft.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Make #4, confirmed they have not spud the TFS well.

  126. 126
    VTZ Says:

    Z – Was out golfing with my pops for the day, but yes gold will go parabolic from here… these are feeble attempts to manipulate the technicals and force selling although it is being met with fierce buying.
     
    I anticipate a breakout from the cup and handle formation and the ascending wedges that are simultaneously being formed.
     
    All selling is intended to shake out weak hands and gold will be moving much higher in short order upon break of the 1265 high. The selling in the past couple days has been pure nonsense in breakout territory and bids have been met with multiple times the asks in order to force price down… if you really wanted to sell your gold you would allow it to rise from these bullish formations.
     
    Both downside manipulation days have been met with bullish reversals and the bulls will prevail (yet again) and everyone who doesnt think so is welcome to short against my postion.
     

  127. 127
    VTZ Says:

    And the fundamentals for gold have done but improve and the fundamentals for currencies have done nothing but deteriorate so dont talk to me about falling commodities because that has nothing to do with anything and if you are lumping your gold with broad commodites then you dont understand.

  128. 128
    VTZ Says:

    And I didn't mean you as Zman just in the broad sense… a little frustrated to come back to my energy/ag portfolio today.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    Re 126- 128. I understand. Thanks. Getting asked by my pops, who I took out of everything (mutual funds) but energy early May, what I think about gold, which is of course, not much since it's not my bag, if you know what I mean. Appreciate your thoughts there.

  130. 130
    PackMan Says:

    71 –  Jobs – Foot in mouth Joe Biden yesterday "No possibility we can recover the 8 million jobs lost …."
    76 – Art Hogan … BOP … I could not agree more; can't stand listening to that guy; speed talker; I don't find his comments useful, even at 78 rpm.  But thats right in line for most CNBC guests.

  131. 131
    VTZ Says:

    Just reviewing all the action today: the 10 year yield under 3% should be scary to everyone…
     

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    V – yep.

    Equity futures getting a dead cat bounce tonight.

    Asia down 2% on US losses

    Alex now a hurricane, problem for Mexico coast, Bastardi expecting rapid strengthening, no threat to U.S. side Gulf production. Expect a hiccup in next week's imports to the U.S. number as Mexico is shut in for at least half a week.

    Oil and NG flat so far overnight.

    Dollar flat.

  133. 133
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