31
Mar

T.G.I.T.

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Market Sentiment Watch: First day of the quarter vs last day of a holiday shortened week so look for even lower volumes. Payroll data comes out tomorrow as the market sleeps in so that may factor into a little more than usual pre 3 day weekend trepidation today but so far futures are showing green, both for equities and for commodities. This is likely a function of the "I missed the rally last quarter and I'm not going to miss another one" syndrome. Meanwhile most technicians and market watchers will tell you this recent rally has come too far, too fast and is on borrowed time for at least a correction.  In energy land, there is little to nothing in the way of news today but that should start to pick up again next week, both from analysts as they adjust estimates for the quarter and start making comments regarding what to expect on conference calls and from companies as they provide more pre quarterly release operational updates (SSN, BEXP come to mind in this last regard).

Ecodata Watch:

  • Jobless claims:  439,000 vs 443,000 forecast.
  • We get ISM (which has been market moving of late) at 10 am EST, forecast is 57.0%.

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Preview
  4. EIA Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today
  6. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch:

ZCAT (Zman Catalyst portfolio, formerly the $10KP II):

  • $8,900
  • 61% Cash
  • Positions are updated for the quick view on the ZCAT, ZIM, ZLT page.
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • None

ZIM (Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio)

  • $9,000
  • 70% Cash
  • Yesterday’s Trades:
    • Sold the 10 SWN April $41 Calls for $1.25, up 49%. I continue to hold them in the ZCAT as well as the common in the ZLT. But for the ZIM, I think the initial pop due over the New Brunswick news has played out. From here it’s more a bit on ongoing discovery there in the market’s eyes and gas prices as we move towards 1Q reporting season.

ZLT (Zman Long Term portfolio)

  • Sold CLR, down 37% since mid 2008 entry. Will revisit but I think the valuation is pricey here and wanted to make a little room in this portfolio.
  • Added SSN for $0.426 per share. I'm unlikely to hold this very long despite the name on this portfolio, just seems like a good opportunity given the higher impact Bakken well, which was drilled without a hitched, about to be completed (next week or so).


 

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil rose $1.39 to close at $83.76 yesterday, after the EIA released somewhat neutral to slightly bearish numbers (see below). Oil closed the quarter up 6%. This morning crude is up 75 cents ... the front month and 12 month strip feels like it wants to test the early 2010 highs. Interest chart on the front month on a weekly basis, has that basing before a breakout feel to it.

  • Nigeria Watch: Gunman kidnap TOT worker. The rebels generally get restless this time of year and despite talk of further production shuttering attacks, they have been unusually quiet of late.

Natural gas fell a dime to close at $3.87 yesterday. For the quarter, gas closed down a whopping 30%. This morning gas is trading down 2 pennies.

  • LNG Watch: Two deals signed yesterday, JPM partnering up with (LNG) and GE partnering with Coastal LNG. The future for LNG imports must look bright to both of these financial names.

Natural Gas Preview

  • My number: 10 to 25  Bcf injection. Pretty squishy time of the for demand.  
    • Last Week: 11 Bcf Injection

    • Last Year: Unchanged

    • 5 Year Average: 3 Bcf Withdrawal

    • 10 year Hi: 36 Bcf Injection

    • 10 year Low: 61 Bcf Withdrawal

  • Street Consensus: 18 Bcf Injection

EIA Oil Inventory Review


ZComment: Not exactly a bullish report as the numbers fail to meet withdrawal expectations for both products. Demand continues to be fairly strong, all things being considered, for gasoline. Inventories remain in check for oil prices to remain at or near current levels.

Crude:



 

Gasoline:




Distillates:




 

Stuff We Care About Today

TAT 10K Quick Look -

  •  Did not see anything meaningfully new in a perusal of the TAT 10K,
  • a couple of new small farm ins in e. Turkey, pretty much same stuff as in the latest presentation.
  • I do see one exploration well listed as drilling in Turkey that I did not know had spud yet.
  • The bigger tests that will look at structures similar to those seen in Iraq (Kurdistan) are still scheduled for testing in the first half.
  • The plans for Turkey, Morocco, and Romania appear in line with prior recent comments on 2010's program.
  • Balance sheet remains in good shape with a pile of cash ($110 mm) and no long term debt
  • The income statement is showing the ramp in volumes in its infancy as expected.

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • Nada

Interesting Article Watch:

171 Responses to “T.G.I.T.”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    As gasoline approaches 3 per gallon , obama open offshore drilling..the area being discussed for new drilling is far smaller than what was proposed in the Bush’s administration.

    He is trying to preempt potential damage from his lack of energy policy,imho

    Press helps spin it as he is allowing drilling when in fact he is reducing what was already proposed by the prior administration

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Bill – I think his speech yesterday was good. What was in the speech I agreed with. I’m one who thinks we should exploit the resources we have and also improve efficiency and conservation measures constantly. The Florida/Cuba angle wasn’t really addressed. But more than that, a real push for natural gas transportation wasn’t addressed.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Thanks to those who voted to follow me over on Seeking Alpha yesterday here:

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/zman

    I know it seems silly but it helps keep costs down over time to be ranked higher there. Tell your friends.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Crude up $1.11, just shy of $85.

    NG flat

    21.9x crude vs gas. That’s pretty high. I don’t think it matters much for pricing, just high.

  5. 5
    bill Says:

    oil at 85 has to help the oily names, no???

  6. 6
    bondbuddha Says:

    Big Equity day, big selloff in Mortgage bond markets as the ten year yield rises, Wow

  7. 7
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Liked this from MadWms this am…

    What to expect next? E&P company boards have begun to meet following the close of calendar 1Q business, to discuss 2Q10 and FY10 strategy, spending, etc. Three months ago, 2010 capital budgets were formulated using $5.00-5.50 Nymex gas prices. Natural gas prices have since declined ~30% to $3.87 May Nymex, $4.65 12mo Strip, $3.92 Henry Hub cash. Weakness largely driven by US natural gas production growth. There is no exact way to determine production levels from the last two months. The most recent hard data was the EIA 914 report issued on 3/29, which showed US Jan production for the Lower 48 States 0.9% MoM, or 590mmcf/d, to 63.43Bcf/d, Offshore GOM 1.6% MoM, or 110mmcf/d, to 6.78Bcf/d. Combined production for the Lower 48 and Offshore GOM increased 0.99% MoM, or 700mmcf/d, to 70.21Bcf/d. This is much stronger than expected. Furthermore, incremental Feb & March production growth can be inferred from the growth in the US natural gas rig count (especially horizontal rigs). In Jan, rigs increased 13.4% MoM, or 112 gas rigs, in Feb they were up 5.1%, or 44 gas rigs, and in March up 3.9%, 36 gas rigs – as of the 3/26 BHI report.

    While some level of activity is required to secure acreage (estimates range from 400-500 gas rigs vs. 941 working last week), the circumstances may call for proactive responses from industry leaders to curtail production, cut spending & idle gas rigs, in order to put a bottom in gas prices and push prices back into a more reasonable, economic range. CHK recently idled 20 gas rigs, largely in the Fayetteville Shale play. While this is a move in the right direction, the situation calls for much broader efforts by gas producers, which we expect may happen in conjunction with 1Q reports beginning in late April. Any meaningful action by gas producers could trigger a 15-20% bounce in depressed gassy E&P stocks (for a trade). Continue to like HK, CRK, UPL. KWK also interesting.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, one would think that legging that chart up a bit, say to a new range of $80 to $90 would help them out.

  9. 9
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    TechTrader is already out, coloring Easter Eggs and filling baskets with See’s Chocolate Bunnies.

    HeadTrader says “hello! and thank you for showing up today…” Although he is not sure it will be worth it. Not many people to play with. Except for the bond-folks… who have to be at work tomorrow (while equity people get to join TT and color eggs).

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    AEZ on the tape, PRB sale raises $46.2 mm. That’s a big cash bump for those little guys, puts the focus squarely on the Bakken.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Credit mrkt en fuego. Not enough product around. That will drive spreads even higher and yields even lower. Seeing some securitization issuance again. Time to focus on stocks. The Bond Market is just about back to “normal.”

    What think you, bondbuddha??

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sorry. meant will drive spreads TIGHTER…

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    WLL – definitely breaking out now.

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    EXXI (68% OIL production) was stupid-oversold. But, that is sometimes the price you pay for owning a stock that most people have never heard of. That will change. Always does, when a company puts up good numbers.

  15. 15
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — heck of a great call, shorting the gassy kids. You turning around and going long any? Hearing HK is the go-to name…

  16. 16
    elijahwc Says:

    Bonterra (Cardium Player that has already converted to a corporation) increases monthly divi to .21 from .18. 6.75% yield. Nice. Symbol BNE or BNEFF.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Not pooh-poohing the gas trade idea but I have seen the natural gas non-commercials futures traders stay net short for years at a time and I don’t yet see the impetus for a great covering. Maybe we see a bounce to $4.50 or even $5 late Spring but there will be headwinds to a significant move higher until the second half. I think you get some help from some weather, higher coal prices, hurricanes and conventional declines by then. But the last great curtailment by Aubrey was ineffectual in moving prices as few others played along. So while I’m in SWN and HK in part for a bounce on gas, I’m not yet willing to play them large and would prefer to have most of my gains there come from the ZLT and not the options.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Good to see BEXP participating with the group and especially the oils.

    SP at 1180.75. Nicky, got levels?

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Group is moving on pretty light volume. WLL up 3% to a new high but on 55K traded 20 minutes after the open.

    Any color from HT/TT on this rally BOP?

  20. 20
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Names like WLL and NFX you have called cheap. I am assuming you are looking primarily at CF/sh. Are there other reasons that are pointing you there that I have forgotten? Thanks.

  21. 21
    bondbuddha Says:

    Re 11, Perception has changed in our market, there is now belief that rates will rise as evidenced by pricing falling on high yield CMO’s from par/premium levels to now discount levels for bonds yielding 14% and below. BIG change in our markets, we are starting to see ” Normal ” activity ” in issuance as well.

  22. 22
    jat Says:

    Thx. I didn’t hold on till the whites of the eyes, but it was a decent trade. We already had some existing gas longs, so just held on to those, didn’t really add to anything other than service, though the top candidate was SWN which we’ve had in the long onlies for years. Coulda, woulda, shoulda, didn’t. Anyway, been out of the majority of the gas shorts since the first Monday of Howard Weil and then I spent the entire rest of the week wishing I still had them, after all that negative commentary 🙂

    I agree with the thought that the gas pain trade is mostly over for now, though I have no idea where the broader market is going. And I’m hoping Goldman’s right about the direction of spot itself, but I’m uncertain. So it’s a lot easier for me to sit which what I have (we’re mostly crude levered, more the CNQ-OXY fans than the Aubrey fans) and wait to shoot gas in the back again.

    Are your Madison Williams comments still from Mike Bodino? My broker there just left, and then I heard Bodino retired.

    Also, Z, what’s your read on what data EIA will be revising? Anything with the potential to solve the mysterious case of the balancing item and make us feel better about production?

  23. 23
    bill Says:

    ARD moving HARD

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Tom – they are cash flow cheap. NFX is cheap on several measures. WLL is cheap on a potential reserves metric. Both have a number of catalysts as the year plays out that should get their metrics up.

    Bond- hear ya, agreed.

    Jat – no help on balancing up they get the actual production numbers squared. I took a look at their proposed changes and it just seems that the modeled numbers will reflect more recent data. Sounds kind of logical that they would be using data of peers from the prior month to extrapolate the non surveyed numbers rather than data from prior years but that’s your tax money finally coming around to that revelation.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Jat you were covering on Monday as I was buying after a week’s hiatus (which meant not trading but watching things slip). Glad to see I wasn’t off my nutt as much as it felt like through yesterday.

    Good to see SWN, HK, BEXP all moving as they have been tough to turn back higher.

    WLL – cheap = trickle up.

  26. 26
    jat Says:

    Not this Monday, was on 3/22, but same difference if you look at all the prices.

  27. 27
    BossmanG Says:

    VTZ/bloodystupidjohnson, do you happen to have a watch list of stocks (energy or any sector) you follow for the tsx? (or anyone else that follows tsx)…

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — #22 thanks for the explanation. No reason to eat the whole cow… just the lunch on the good part. You played it well.

    Bodino is over at GlobalHunter… fixin’ to publish soon.

    MadWms is in the process of hiring a new guy (and might have, just y’day). But, the team there is deeper than just Bodino… so, he will be missed, but those guys still know where all the good stuff is buried. So, worth listening too. You talk to MadWms?

  29. 29
    VTZ Says:

    I’ll post a huge watchlist tommorow or Monday.

  30. 30
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Just to be perfectly clear, nat gas is NOT straight up from here. This is a relief rally. I don’t think it goes very far… until we start hearing about production and capex cuts. That could (????) start as early as 1Q conf calls.

  31. 31
    bill Says:

    z

    you had a list one time of the oilest names

    can you refresh my memory on that topic?

    i think clr was on that list

    pxp, is unhedged on the upside but has ng exposure which is unhedged

    bexp is 100 % oil right??

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Case in point… MadWms said yesterday to buy CRK for the relief rally. So far, that trade looking good… so, a $20 bill i missed.

  33. 33
    jat Says:

    I’ve talked with Bodino, not the other guys. Who’s good?

  34. 34
    Dman Says:

    The NG daily chart seems to have gotten a little bit noisier but nothing much that would indicate a change of trend. However if crude keeps doing its thing, surely it will drag NG up eventually.

    I just have a persistent feeling that crude will advance to eg $100 and crater the economy. OPEC sounded pretty tepid about restraining prices and I wonder about their capacity to do so.

  35. 35
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — we gotta see who they just hired. But, it’s more than just the analyst. It’s more about access and who the principals run with. “Old farts with friends.” That is what makes the oil biz go ’round.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Had to step out for a second.

    Bill – re oily names:

    In the small caps I watch, WLL is your top oily name at 74% of production, followed by BRY.

    BEXP is still gassy but is rapidly transitioning and should double oil production this year, taking it to oilier status.

    Mid caps
    CLR is 7% oil (big piece of Woodford shale gas makes up a lot of the balance)

    DNR is 83% oil

    NFX is getting oilier but is still less 1/3 oil

    Big Caps
    APA is biggest oil at 48%
    EOG is quickest to get oilier

  37. 37
    bill Says:

    lol ng soaring this is no april fools joke

    70 in the northeast ng soars

  38. 38
    bill Says:

    ty for 36

    ard is about 85 % oil..i guess thats why i like it

    atpg is over 50 %

    vq is over 50 %

    sd hedged its oil so another 1 time hedge loss

  39. 39
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Boss you can make up your own watch list by using http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.company_search

  40. 40
    elduque Says:

    both UNG and HK breaking over a downtrend started at the beginning of Feb.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    ARD – that made a lot of sense as a post Q bounce. Wouldn’t want to show it on your 3/31 list of names and so it runs now. Good call there Bill. Am watching for a definitive breakout on the chart but this makes a lot of sense long term as well.

  42. 42
    andy Says:

    z – u’ve not talked too much about DNR. any reason?

  43. 43
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: you mentioned that alot of the drilling this year is because companies want to get into hbp status and that it should slacken off in 2011.

    Well what about the wet gas vs dry gas thing? Companies are looking for wet gas where they process out the liquids and and hedge out the remaining dry gas. Since the liquids are usually priced off oil, they are getting good prices on those liquids. The result is that on a dry gas basis a well might not be profitable, but when the liquids are added in they are. End result more dry gas than is needed and more dry gas than the models might sugguest.

  44. 44
    bill Says:

    im not in dnr but like the name..

  45. 45
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Table-pounding statement. In spite of the fact that Nichols, Simmons, and CAM have been making statements to the market that Davy Jones is too high pressure and temperature to ever produce…. they are WRONG.

    While admirable, smart, and honorable, all of them, they do NOT have personel on the rig floor, nor have they seen the logs, nor are they involved in the production buildout. We will hear all about the production timeline and buildout at DJ on EXXI’s 1st calendar quarter conf call. I would not be short EXXI/MMR going into that call.

  46. 46
    BossmanG Says:

    bloodystupidjohnson, im in the process of creating my own, just was wondering what others might have on it that I overlooked.

  47. 47
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Triangle broke out to the upside as expected. We saw new highs on the SPX. So far the top at 1181 was 1.618 if wave i so we may be in a small wave iv pullback to around the 1176 level which would backtest the breakout level of the triangle. v would target the 1188 – 1194 level.
    A thought here. We may actually be only looking at the closing moments of wave 3 here in which case when we see the final spike for v it will be v of 3 and we would then see a wave 4 pullback which could pullback to the 1158 (too early to set this figure in stone until we see the top) area before heading higher again to the 1220 area. That would likely take us into the end of April/early May which lines up with some cycles.
    I will add that I don’t feel at all comfortable with the market up here. My instinct is saying they may sell this off later in the day ahead of tomorrow but I am forcing myself to count waves! That said it would not surprise me in the least to see the market at 1158 tomorrow!

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    KOG at $3.50, BEXP approaching $17, NOG near $17 (damn), Bakkens continue to run as oil attempts a breakout.

    TAT flat after release of annual, following a morning sell down.

    WHX moved through $19, my 1Q estimate of $0.61 for a distribution remains unchanged.

    My 2Q number of $0.54 is based 82.50 oil and $4 gas with some stiff differentials and another 4% decline which will probably be a touch conservative.

    If prices are better than that or slightly lower or the differentials are better which is likely, then the NTM read on yield of 12+% should be pretty solid.

  49. 49
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP would you know when EXXI’s 1st calender quarter call is?

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Andy – part of that is management’s predilection for long, long range thinking that sometimes I don’t get, part of it is their cost structure, but mostly it’s because I used to follow it and no longer really pay that much attention, so neglect, not dislike.

  51. 51
    Nicky Says:

    The employment picture and it isn’t pretty:
    Yesterday’s -23,000 number from ADP, along with a downward revision for earlier months shows continued weakness. Today, we got the Monster index that improved from 124 last month to 125 this month – a slight positive for posted job openings. The Challenger job cut report was pretty negative – announced layoffs increased from 42K last month to over 67K in March. Layoffs at the postal service were the primary factor. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html Finally, within today’s ISM report showing the highest manufacturing reading in six years, the employment index fell. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ism-manufacturing-index-rises-to-6-year-high-2010-04-01-101100?siteid=YAHOOB Tomorrow’s government report could still be positive with seasonal massage and temporary census jobs, but the core employment situation is still extremely weak.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky, market closed tomorrow, so 1,158 on Monday .

    BSJ – 43. Was there a question in there?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    BOP – send it to me and I’ll forward.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    There is a picture of a cat on my Seeking Alpha page. They should have gone with a dog.

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/zman

  55. 55
    elijahwc Says:

    #36 – HES just shed it’s gas assets in the North Sea for $423 million in cash. And, it is a stealth player in the Bakken having done the original development but having received little credit for it or their acreage. I think they get discovered this year.

    Bill, tip of the hat on ARD.

  56. 56
    Nicky Says:

    Goldman Sachs says lowers March US payrolls forecast to 200,000 gain from 275,000 gain – Reuters

  57. 57
    choices Says:

    ISM 59.6-as Z mentioned in post, forecast was for 57. mfg picking up

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB9QAAqICBFE&pos=2

  58. 58
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    BOSS how about the following cardium players

    BNE-T
    BNP.UN-T
    BXE-T
    DAY.UN-T
    MEL-T
    NAE.UN-T
    PWT.UN-T (this is PWE on nyse)
    VET.UN-T
    VRO-T

  59. 59
    Nicky Says:

    Z – futures will be open for a while in the morning. Depending on the numbers we obviously will see the spike up or down with the futures.

    That GS number above still looks pretty bullish although I still think its well and truly priced in. So maybe it gives us our pop and drop. Only caveat here is everyone is expecting the market to fly from here and it has a habit of falling short of the projections.

  60. 60
    Popeye Says:

    Are the NG #’s out yet?

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    SSN essentially bouncing off the 50 day as per Jerome’s comments, after having only ticked the 200 day. Next week should be interesting.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Popeye, yes 12 Bcf, lower than the expected 18 Bcf.

    NG up 21 cents.

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ilikericky — EXXI reports sometime before May 15th. I think (know) Schiller wants to lay out the EXACT TIMELINE for bringing DJ on line. And they are still working out some fabricating issues (not BIG TECHINICAL issues… little, machining issues). But as soon as he has solid info on that, would think he would like to report the quarter ASAP.

  64. 64
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Of course there was a question in there, what is your take on this. Is it going to cause more nat gas to be drilled that on the surface is profitable? Is it going to cause gassers without access to wet gas to feel more pain than is currently modeled? Will the wet gassers flood the dry gas market with because they are making their profits another way?

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Honestly regarding the storage numbers, all we, those folks who would be bullish on gas prices, want is to see storage rise in a measured (slow) manner.

  66. 66
    BossmanG Says:

    bsj/vtz, many thanks.

  67. 67
    dij Says:

    SSN now 48

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    BSJ – I don’t think it’s a big deal. The amount of dry gas left over is likely to be more than offset by dry gas declines being seen out of the Barnett. No to your last question.

  69. 69
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP Thanks for the EXXI dates.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZCAT – BEXP

    Sold the 50 April $17.50 calls bought Monday for $0.20 today for $0.30. I continue to hold 10 calls and will add these back if the market takes a header into the close, looking for an operations update press release in the next week or two.

  71. 71
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Real nice primer movie by NOG how they drill a horizontal well http://www.northernoil.com/drilling.php

    (just takes a few minutes)

  72. 72
    bill Says:

    55

    ty but its a market related move

    the best action will come when they release q1

    Most analyst have very low price decks for oil. I never expected to see 80 + hold

    Sooner or later they will have to adjust and move up the earnings and ratings for the oily names. Yesterday, 1 analyst moved, there are another 14 to go

    Alot of people are in the show me mode with ard, and i think q1 will show them, lol

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    TISDZ moving again, maybe be the pre move for Triad news.

    re 71. Yes, that’s a good video worth watching.

  74. 74
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    ELI: I see today where Total gets shale gas exploration permit for southern France. The cynic in me wonders why they didn’t take up and partner with TRGL in Paris if that property is suppose to look so much like the Bakkans? Of course since Total becomes involved in the south of France, it might make some other company to become interested in the Paris basin properties.

    So one could look at this as glass half empty or glass half full.

  75. 75
    dij Says:

    Bill, Re ARD and earnings, I may have missed the date, but when?
    Thanks

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    BPT back to $100. Would probably have bought the unaccounted-reason-swoon from two Friday’s back, but again, because I can’t model it pretty quickly I’ll stick to other stuff.

    First boss in the biz handed me two books on my first day. One was The Firm because John would eventually be my client. That wasn’t clear at the onset so I thought they were trying to creep the new guy out with all the big bad corporate stuff. But the second was One Up On Wall Street. Have remained a big Lynch fan ever since. If you can’t explain what a company does to someone else on an elevator ride and/or you can’t model it up on a single spreadsheet than I won’t look hard at it unless it has some special angle that numbers are early for. PBT turns me off in the way they present and since there are lots of similar choices out there (way more of them public than really ought to be) I choose to ignore those that I don’t already either have some history with or which look a bit boring but at the same time are convoluted. I simply can’t kiss all the girls.

  77. 77
    bill Says:

    early may, i dont have a date yet

  78. 78
    Jerome Blank Says:

    I know it’s a hassle,but please don’t forget to vote for me if you have a second….I hate being anywhere near the bottom, except when it’s buying the low…I posted somme new updates this morning, thank much…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  79. 79
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #78 sorry for typos, I’m typing from a tiny screen and keyboard…

  80. 80
    ilikericky Says:

    Zman is the move in TISDZ.PK real?

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    JB – voted. Meant to add last week that I like the addition of the up front chart glossary.

    On SWN – that reversed back to X’s, any further thoughts there?

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    EOG – FYI, analyst meeting next Wednesday, I’m likely to go back into higher strike calls there soon.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Re 80 – up 14%, not uncommon, it is thin. Do you mean is it based on anything? Who knows but there is some smart money in it so they are probably anticipating fresh data or maybe a new player entry into the ultra deep.

    Blueberry Hill appraisal well is some 2,000+ feet deeper than planned, should have news there soon.

  84. 84
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Blueberry Hill #2 will not be a dry hole. Just don’t know how good it will be yet.

    By the way, HUGE KUDOS on little SSN. It ain’t over ’til you book it. But, sure looking good so far. I don’t know SSN at all. Only the name (but thought it was a Tulsa company, so WDIK). Anyway, i think it’s a real (money-making) example of how you add value, quickly. You move fast… which is what you have to do, with $20 bills on the sidewalk. I didn’t do the trade… but sure wish i had!!

  85. 85
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    From a desk-trader —

    today, Nat Gas is having an “Outside Day” (technical term): This occurs when one day’s high is higher than the previous day’s high, and its low is lower than the previous day’s low. This is often taken as a signal that the market is about to make a move in the direction of where the closing price…currently it would be a Bullish sign, hinting a reversal in the current downtrend may be in the offing. Earlier in the week, I highlighted that we had call buyers in Nat Gas a few days in a row.

  86. 86
    ilikericky Says:

    re 83# Thanks

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Thanks much for that BOP.

    I think it goes through the recent high if the Bakken well comes in at 1,000 boepd plus next week. Note that it is close to BEXP’s biggest well. The hype from a 1,000 boepd IP could carry it well beyond what it really means to them. So I think it is far from done …. if they hit it.

  88. 88
    cargocult Says:

    What are our old friend HAL’s chances like this month. I own the april 34’s and am thinking of adding.

  89. 89
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Man… you know it’s a strong day for energy when PXP moves up. That’s not a dog with fleas… it’s an ELEPHANT with fleas.

  90. 90
    cargocult Says:

    A look at BP Capital Management’s top-15 U.S.-listed equity holdings from the end of 2009 shows widely mixed results during Q1. McMoRan Exploration (MMR) ran away with the top spot performance-wise, soaring by 82% in the three months ended March 31. Meanwhile, Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and Forest Oil (FST) were also among winners.

    Elsewhere in the portfolio, none of Pickens’ top-15 end-of-Q4 holdings managed to outperform the S&P 500 for the quarter. Among them, the three stocks BP was adding to during Q4 were laggards. SandRidge Energy (SD) and Weatherford International (WFT) both slumped by more than -10% for the period after Pickens upped his bets on the stocks by 51% and 92% respectively. Meanwhile, a new position in TransAtlantic Petroleum (TAT) also showed disappointing results, adding less than 2% in Q1.

  91. 91
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #81 SWN…updated the daily chart…I wanted to say more but I’m having a difficult time working with this notepad…there is an interesting confluence of resistance in a zone at $43 to $44…if long from the P&F swing reversal, consider taking profits beginning at $42.90…

    Zman thank you much for the vote and the feedback…

  92. 92
    ilikericky Says:

    BOP have a look at TISDZ its roaring up now 31% looks like the Triad(MMR/EXXI) will have good things to say.Another Zman pick.

  93. 93
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargocult — Boone thinks JimBob is just about the coolest thing out there. He has little hearts in his eyes, when he talks about MMR.

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ilikericky — i looked at that warrant at one point. The underlying asset rights are sliced and diced acreage and zones in a way that I decided was way over my pay-grade. But it’s a call option. So, when it moves, it really scoots!

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Re HAL – I like them higher but they are seeing some minor downward earnings revisions in front of earnings. The stock has been laboring as natural gas has fallen and the sentiment there has turned from NAM will be a help to it will hurt in 2H10 as rigs onshore get stacked. International looks stronger than I think many are expecting (just an anecdotal compilation of thought there) and I think the stock may rise just pre and post earnings. No one expects a beat as they have previously warned on numbers. I do think $34 is a stretch at the moment but am not in at present and of course, it doesn’t have to get there to be a winner, as that has lots of leverage to a move.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    TISDZ = a “Zman pick” that Zman did not play. That’s all sentiment, you can’t put value on it or any numbers at this point. I missed it, I won’t chase and if I held it I would be certain not to fall in love. It can go to $2 or just as easily to $0.75. But right now, up 31% at 1.38 on OK volume I’d say someone thinks they know something about the timing of a press release and its contents.

  97. 97
    cargocult Says:

    ME moving nicely today.

  98. 98
    cargocult Says:

    Pickens buy of TAT is what caught my interest.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Pickens “hearts” N. Malone Mitchell the 3rd too.

  100. 100
    West Says:

    JB, Thx for all the great charts , voted.

  101. 101
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #100, West, thank you…

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Thanks Pati and true. And actually it keeps me from raising rates. Just as a reminder, I do pay via free time for people bringing new subscribers into the fold.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Really bad idea watch:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100401/ap_on_re_af/af_piracy

  104. 104
    RobBanks Says:

    JB – voted, thx for the great charts.

    Z – I’m rolling in dough the SSN trade. But I’m gonna stay in and see if I can pocket even more than $200!

  105. 105
    West Says:

    JB, I was curious about your thoughts on the DNR Weekly chart fron stockcharts.com gallery view. It would appear that DNR is breaking out from a huge 18 month triangle to the upside with P&F confirmation and confirming volumebeing aware of recent 140 million share issuance for EAC acquistion. You do not have to post it your site just a look would be good. Thanks for everything.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks for updating the SWN.

    ROSE basing – will own either more stock, or the calls again or both before earnings release. Last quarter was all about the Alberta Bakken. This quarter will be further data release there and a bunch of liquids rich Eagle Ford wells. Would like it to trend sideways for a bit longer before the next leg up.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Wondering if the DJIA puts on a push into the close for 11,000. Auto sales coming out and at least Toyota looks strong (discounts on their auto accelerating line up no doubt). F and GM up big too though.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    BEXP on the tape ….

  109. 109
    Nicky Says:

    I saw the auto sales numbers earlier and they looked to be below consensus which surprised me as I had heard they were supposed to be amazing.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    BEXP news on two more big wells and an update on the go forward. Damn odd timing on the release. Mulling.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Brigham-Exploration-Announces-iw-939434948.html?x=0&.v=1

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE – ZIM – BEXP

    Added (20) April $17.50 calls on two more big wells in the Bakken. Stock was already up on the day and I added these with the stock at $17.12 five minutes after the news hit. Yes these are the same calls I partially sold out of the ZCAT earlier in the day but new news inspires a new trade. One of the wells was their biggest Ross area IP to date.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    More on BEXP – the Sorenson well had an IP of 3,511 BOEpd. This is a Ross area Bakken well and the biggest one for them to date in terms of IP. If people start ascribing the big EURs of Rough Rider, over to the Ross area, I can easily see NAV’s being worked higher over the weekend.

  113. 113
    DrLink Says:

    IOC -remember last friday? A blur in the side view mirror on this roller coaster ride.

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Caveats to the trade in BEXP.

    Weird timing of release. It’s like the got the data and decided to react to it but also, there is some fluffy rah, rah language at the end of the release:

    Bud Brigham continued, “We achieved strong growth in reserves and oil production volumes during 2009 despite very little drilling during the first half of the year, and with only one rig running during a considerable portion of the second half of the year. With four rigs running today, and the strong and consistent results generated by this program, we expect our production and reserve growth to accelerate meaningfully during 2010.”

    If I didn’t know better (and I don’t) that smacks like “buy my stock so I can do a secondary”. Mulling being very quick in the ZIM on this, maybe out today. I already had 20 in the portfolio and would rather not get clocked by a deal.

  115. 115
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #105, DNR…West, I see it…I also see what you mean, DNR is much easier to trade off the weekly…currently on a P&F buy signal, DNR is now hitting 100 period SMA resistance on the weekly at about $17.50…looking at the P&F chart, a pullback to to just above $16, if it gets there, would be a great place to try a long…I posted the weekly…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  116. 116
    skimo Says:

    http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/31/obama-oil-drilling-business-energy-offshore-oil.html?partner=yahootix
    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/458253/Heres-What-the-Oil-Drilling-Really-Means%3A-Obama-Is-About-to-Bring-Back-Cap-and-Trade
    Looks like Forbes and tech ticker’s Joe Weisenthal view the Obama announcement yesterday more as a first step(although backwards from prior admin) in a dance to get cap and trade passed. Need to watch his hips not his lips.

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    BEXP. I’ll be out before the close, if for a wash or for a small loss I don’t care. I know they want to add more land and I know they want to add a fifth rig in the Bakken. The timing of this press release is very odd.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Skimo – heard that on the radio this morning. API thinks that’s the case as well. A little gift to get some Republicans on board as he knows he’ll have Democrats in resource states defecting.

  119. 119
    Jerome Blank Says:

    UNG…it’s so rare these days, that I just had to post it…for how ever long it lasts…a bullish consolidation pennant on the 30 min….only for the brave…the target would be the 200 period at $7.47…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Fair warning on those BEXP’s , not intending to be this “trady” ever but I am not going to stick around very long. Not selling yet but wasting a bit of time watching a minute chart of the S&P and of BEXP at the moment. Rarely do I want a trade back (at least 5 minutes after the trade) but I would not do it again right this second … I think I smell a deal and if that’s the case I’ll be happier to buy lower strikes lower next week.

    If I were them I’d wait on results from the Montana well but that timely looks a little longer now than I was thinking as they mentioned coring (which they said they’d take their time with) but then completion taking them into late 2Q or early 3Q before they give up results.

  121. 121
    VTZ Says:

    So here’s my more general list with an obvious focus on commodities and energy. I generally follow the tech, financials, and services as indicators only. Some of the names listed are only followed in order to get a feel for the group. Others are interesting stories, etc.

    Oil and Gas
    SU CNQ TLM NXY COS.un ECA CVE IMO VET.un HSE BTE.un BNP.un BNE PWT.un QEC JNX.V UTS OPC PEY.un PD.un SVY CPG PBN MEL NAE.un BXE NKO PHX.un PGF.un DAY.un WSX.V AET.un GTE

    Pipelines
    TRP ENB IPL.un

    Agriculture
    FOS AGU POT VT AGT

    Precious Metals
    EPZ.v SLW TNX K ABX YRI AEM ANO WDO ELD IMG OSK ORV RBI CRK JAG CEE G LGG CEF.A
    I also follow a few other small juniors

    Mining
    AVL TCM GCE HBM QUA TCK.B ALS IMN
    There are plenty of quality juniors here as well

    Uranium
    CCO DML PDN UUU BSK.v

    Rails
    CP CNR

    Assorted
    The big banks + SLF MFC
    OCX TIM TRI CGX.un RCI.B WJA T RIM THI OTC ARE STN

    Trading ETFS
    http://www.hbpetfs.com/pub/en/Etfs.aspx
    I prefer to use these for commodities trading and hedging.

  122. 122
    RobBanks Says:

    z – your logic on a potential BEXP secondary sounds very good. But along those lines, wouldn’t it be better to toot his horn next week rather than 2 hours before a long weekend, and on a light volume day?

    Or maybe because this is material, they had to release without much delay, so today is the day. I have no idea.

  123. 123
    bill Says:

    re bexp

    ive never seen a midday update and on an up day as well.

    i think you might be onto something z

    A secondary makes sense…

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Rob –

    Bud could have held that over the weekend, he’s not required to publish this kind of news.

    What gives me pause is the timing (mid day is oddball) and the language that is more big picture at the end than is normal. This kind of PR is what you do to get your stock up. And it is good stuff. Not sure why, if he were doing a deal, that he would want to get it out the door before a 3 day holiday. I would not have done that were I looking to get a deal done. However, maybe they have a spot secondary cooking or a PIPE. Or maybe he’s thinking oil is up but you don’t know how long it will stay up. Or the market looks peaky. So you get the stock as high as you can and then pricing it in the hole doesn’t hurt so much. Maybe he’s doing it before jobs and a 3 day weekend simply thinking the market is tired so do the PIPE tonight while he can.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Can someone with a Bloom check to see if any houses have gone restricted on BEXP?

  126. 126
    zman Says:

    Ok, I’m told Bloom does not show anyone as restricted. Makes a deal somewhat less likely but still possible.

  127. 127
    RobBanks Says:

    124 – thx. We’ll see.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    USEG saying they are in the smaller of the two Bakkens announced by BEXP. BEXP does have a high working interest in that big Ross well.

  129. 129
    VTZ Says:

    Nicky – Gold is going to meet resistance around 1130 ish range. Do you have a count where it would break out?

  130. 130
    Patipati Says:

    JB – really appreciate charts, and new additions, and vote for you every day!

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    NG at 4.11 with 10 minutes to go to the NYMEX close, up 6% on the day. Been awhile.

  132. 132
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #130, Pat, thanks much, I really appreciate it…

  133. 133
    VTZ Says:

    By the way, did anyone see Santelli and Liesman on CNBC this morning. If not, please watch (if they have segments online). Squawk Box at ~8:30 EST talking about the jobs report.

    Could be the funniest thing I’ve seen in a while.

  134. 134
    VTZ Says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1457276368&play=1 I think this is it.

  135. 135
    ram Says:

    BEXP fading. DO you think a deal is still likely? Others might be as well considering the fade. Does this result help boost others?

  136. 136
    zman Says:

    Ram – I don’t know if likely is the way I would characterize it as much as a potential threat. I think the stock is fading in lock step with the S&P500.

  137. 137
    ram Says:

    Thanks. Potential threat sounds very reasonable. I own the common and I don’t want them to turn into a HK – and I do know it’s apples and oranges.

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    Ram – ok, you got where I stand then. I own the common, worth a lot more than my calls here. I don’t mind owning the common through a deal at all.

    Listening to VTZ’s link…wow.

  139. 139
    VTZ Says:

    Isn’t that crazy? I couldn’t believe that when I heard it. I was listening to it on Sirius in the car.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    V- didn’t they give Santelli a week off while I was gone? Sounds like he needs another one. Honestly that’s the kind of stuff you find on a message board, not good analysis / biz journalism, but what the heck do I know, I’m just a lowly blogger.

  141. 141
    VTZ Says:

    Yeah I think he had time off then when he came back they asked if him and Liesman were friends and he sarcastically spouted “You bet we are”.

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    Nasdaq lower, GS lower, everything else not trading very actively, wondering if their is sufficient firepower to try and recover the gains of earlier today and doubting it.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Anyone know anything about this Draaisma at Morgan Stanley. He’s out saying the rally is about over and he sees an 11% decline in the market in the next 3 to 6 months. If you ask me, that’s not really much of a call. 11%? Didn’t we just rally 12% in the last month?

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    TAT working higher now. Should see another ops update there in the next couple of weeks.

  145. 145
    BossmanG Says:

    VTZ, much appreciated, very comprehensive!

    Do you/or anyone happen to have opinion about Josef Schachter (http://www.e-sami.com/)?

  146. 146
    isleworth Says:

    The infamous analyst Henry Blodgett with an investigative report on IOC

    http://tinyurl.com/ydbthze

  147. 147
    Patipati Says:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/e/100331/mhr10-k.html

    MHR report came out yesterday. Up more earlier. Now 3.24

  148. 148
    VTZ Says:

    Schachter won’t admit he’s wrong until it’s completely obvious and too late. That being said, I’ve been told he has a good track record in the longterm although I don’t know personally.

  149. 149
    VTZ Says:

    Boss – You could add a lot more in the energy and mining sphere in terms of service names and smaller energy/mining names. BNK, IRC for example. If you’re interested in a certain space let me know and I could cite some stocks with interesting stories.

  150. 150
    zman Says:

    Has anyone seen last minute revisions to forecasts for jobs tomorrow?

  151. 151
    Gtinvest Says:

    Morgan Stanley just said + 300

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    GT – thanks, that’s wowbig. I have the Street at + 200K according to MarketWatch.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    EXXI besting the group now and MMR not far behind.

  154. 154
    Nicky Says:

    GS revised down to 200k from 275k. They always seem to be in the know.

  155. 155
    Nicky Says:

    I think 300k would be totally non believable after the jobs data of the last few days. You may see an initial euphoric reaction but I would not expect that to last.

  156. 156
    zman Says:

    Nicky – Thanks.

  157. 157
    Garyinhou Says:

    Hey Z, I saw that you sold clr to raise cash… since clr (and nfx and a few others) seem to trade in a well defined channel, clr from 38 to 45, nfx from 48 to 55…. what are your thoughts regarding playing both ways… i.e. puts at top, calls at bottom?

    any near term catalysts at all for clr??

    I get tired of not selling at 44 and buying back at 38, seems to been trading that way for months…

    Thanks

  158. 158
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT saying GS sold in the pits this morning and have been selling small all day… consistant with a downward revision. Thx, Nicky.

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    Gary – less catalysts at CLR than others but something about the last call I remember may give them something new on the 1Q call, can’t recall at this second, will look it up. I just felt they were a bit stuck unless oil goes higher and were more fully valued than some of their peers.

  160. 160
    Nicky Says:

    BOP notice GS are themselves down today. Quite often a good indicator of market direction. MSFT has been down too. Russell did not confirm the earlier highs.

    VTZ just saw your question on gold. Will take a closer look and come back to you. My initial thoughts are that it should work back to the 1160 area and could test the previous highs. But not sure we are about to start a new leg up.

  161. 161
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT saying GS sold a lot of futures before putting out the downward revision. So, tell clients, sell yourself, put out revision. Wash, rinse, repeat. They are the Masters of the Spin Cycle.

  162. 162
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky and BOP.

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    Didn’t get the big sell down on BEXP that I would expect when traders are in the know on a deal. Holding through Monday for NAV upgrades as analysts are either out or have not had time yet. The safer course would be to sell out and revisit Monday but again, deals that are out there usually results in a headfake and then a sell down prior to the close and this just appear to be the market. So I’m going against my earlier paranoia.

  164. 164
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HT saying that Lee Cooperman was interviewed by Fortune. He likes healthcare and energy. Spotlighted EXXI, RIG, and Atlas Energy as holdings. Oh, and govt bonds are overvalued, he says (no argument from me).

  165. 165
    bill Says:

    exxi ..star of the day

  166. 166
    Nicky Says:

    close looks strong. I think we can take it the data will be good and they are gonna take this higher Monday – initially at least.

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  168. 168
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    well… to be fair… SSN closed up 10.5% and BEXP up 7.3%… EXXI up only 6.3%. But, nice to see a spot o’ green in the old energy sector. Need to hear about some capex redux in 1Q conf calls….

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    oops. SSN fell back on adjusted close… and other numbers are changing a bit… but, still a nice grassy day.

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    You’ve got about a month before the meat of the 1Q calls.

  171. 171
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    yeah… i know. and a month is the same as a year, in this mrkt.

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