26
Feb

T.G.I.F.

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Sentiment Watch: Yesterday started about as weak as possible and recovered by the end of the day to close mostly green on energy names. I was especially pleased with the ferreting out of value by our community yesterday in a number of names where conference call tidbits pointed up while the stocks were mired in jobs related red. A special shout out goes to BOP for her no nonsense "that's great news" comment during the PXP conference call and subsequent scooping of bargain basement priced EXXID shares after management commented on an upcoming flow test at Davy Jones. Way to go BOP! I thank you and everyone who joined in with 244 comments yesterday, embodying in a day what I created this site for.  Let me tell you all that it is no small value add to me  and others here to have multiple sets of ears on these conference calls. If you don't talk in the comments section that's OK too but there is a wealth of knowledge and informed opinions around here and as my dad used to say, "the only stupid question is the one that goes down the elevator shaft unasked at the end of the day."

Ecodata Watch:

  • GDP revision 4Q  came in as forecast at 5.9% vs last of 5,7%,
  • We get all of these later this morning: Chicago PMI (forecast 60%, last read 61.5%), Consumer sentiment (forecast 73.7, same as last reading), existing home sales (forecast 5.47 mm vs 5.45 last).



In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Storage Review - with yet another set of new and improved graphs!
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SWN
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch

  • $10KP II:

    • $10,400
    • 27% Cash
    • The Current Holdings tab is updated.
    • I will update the $10KP tab on Monday.
  • Yesterday's Trades: None

Commodity Watch

Crude oil fell $1.83 to close at $78.17 yesterday, off with the market (and oil closed prior to the afternoon recovery in equities) and a slightly stronger dollar. This morning crude is trading flat.


Natural gas fell $0.09 to close at $4.77 yesterday after the EIA reported a slightly bigger than expected withdrawal from storage (see below). This withdrawal puts us within what I think is easy reach of the 1.5 Tcf trough storage level which, as I have often stated, I believe to be low enough to be supportive of gas into the shoulder season until we see further evidence of conventional gas supply declines. Note that we should get the monthly supply data for the month of December from the EIA today (I would not look for noticeable declines with this report due to a rush to tie in drilled but not completed wells that occurred prior to year end. This morning gas is trading down slightly.


Natural Gas Storage Review


ZComment: Notes to the following graphs:

a) self explanatory, good trajectory,

b) nice to see us dip firmly into year over year deficit territory, that should increase next week,

d) bottom of the range for this time of year. Weather was not all that cold, speaks to supply/demand here,

e) self explanatory,

f) Added this chart to show historic end of withdrawal season storage levels and the corresponding March 31 natural gas price. Storage levels are obviously not the only variable here and not the most important one in determining pricing but they help set the tone and that is why you read me writing that the lower the storage level the more support of gas through the coming weak demand (shoulder) season there will be. 

g) self explanatory,

h) As you can see from the graph, some winters (withdrawal seasons) end more quickly than others. Normally withdrawals are wrapped up by the end of March. If we get a dud of a tail end to winder, as happened in the winter of '01/'02 or like last year then we are likely to trough at a level that is above my 1.5 Tcfe mark. However, were we to get sustained colder, as you saw with the winter of '06/'07, then look out below on storage.

 


 

Stuff We Care About Today

 

SWN Reports Strong Quarter; Guidance Remains The Same

The 4Q09 Numbers:

  • Production of 89 Bcfe vs guidance of 86 to 89 Bcfe (which had been revised higher following the early completion of repairs at Boardwalk Pipeline),
  • Revenue of $624 mm vs $475 mm expected (but this is probably due to some analysts not including gas marketing operations in their revenue estimate)
  • Cash Costs: (per BOE costs) 
    • LOE of $0.79 in line, forward guidance is a little higher than this

  • EPS of $0.45 vs $0.45 expected
  • CFPS of $1.18 vs $1.07 expected

Guidance:  Unchanged

2010 volume guidance originally called for 400 to 410 Bcf, up 36% on the midpoint.

Statements to think about regarding their 2010 Capital Program: "As we look forward, there remains uncertainty for natural gas prices, so our capital plan will remain flexible. If we see a repeat of the low gas prices we saw in 2009, we will actively manage our capital program and make reductions in our 2010 plan. If gas prices rebound in 2010, we could increase our planned investments and accelerate the development of our Fayetteville Shale play by utilizing additional drilling rigs."

Capital Budget:

  • 2009  $1.8 B
  • 2010  $2.1 B
    • in 2010 plan to spend $1.2 B in the Fayetteville Shale drilling 650 to 680 wells (op and non op)
    • Note that in 2009 in the Fayetteville they spent $1.3 B to add 1.8 Tcf of proved reserves, for a low F&D cost of $0.69 / Mcfe and that was via 570 wells.
    • Undisclosed "new ventures" gets big boost in funding, goes from $25 mm last year to $135 mm. The size of that should inspire some probing on the call. 

Operational Highlights:

Fayetteville Shale: 2010

  • Expected completed well cost: $3.0 mm or less, lateral lengths continue to get longer, 98% of drilling this year will utilize 3D.
  • Slight downspacing going on but they are still expected to be drilling on a lot of currently undrilled sections

Haynesville: Good looking additional Haynesville well, average of  5 so far keeps walking up as they delineate their E.Texas acreage (now 42,300 net acres), also first Bossier well came in at 11/mmd, very respectable.

Marcellus, now at 149,000 net PA acres, planning 35 to 40 wells , sounds like verticals, want to hear moe on the call

Other Important Stuff:

Hedges: Up slightly, now have 16% of gas hedged at an average floor of $8.02; this is still pretty small and is what inspires the quote above regarding ability to ratchet back their capital program.

Reserves:

  • 2009 at 3,657 Bcfe, up 67% vs 2008, 100% natural gas. There may be some questions here regarding the growth in the PUD component but I don't expect that to be a concern.
  • Finding costs of $0.86 / Mcfe


Conference: today, 10 am EST.

 

SD has a conference call at 9 am EST. I plan on letting the stock settle back for awhile but want to hear what they have to say.

Next week's notable earnings reports include ROSE and KOG.

LOL Watch: BEXP Headline This Morning From Reuters: CORRECTED-(Feb 24) UPDATE - Brigham Q4 profit beats expectations. So it only took 36 hours for them to fix that "Surprise Loss" comment from Wednesday night. It's been pointed out to be that next time I see one of those I should double check the math, then add to my position, and then capitalize on the error. Duly noted. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  •  SD, UPL, COG, PXD - Stifel cuts to Hold from Buy 

Interesting Article Watch:

182 Responses to “T.G.I.F.”

  1. 1
    bill Says:

    chart g

    this week was almost as cold as last week so we should see 150 or more withdrawal

    Next week will be cold as this week or colder as the low that sits off the east coast will pull down cold air into the central part of the country..so i see 175 for the week after next and to me thats the key to reversing the ng slide

    I easily see withdrawal for the next 2 weeks over 300 bcf maybe as high as 325 bcf vs 212 last yr taking another 113 bcf out of the y-o-y

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Snowicane term officially coined for what’s happening in Jersey now, it indeed does look like a hurricane in terms of the swirliness or the radar image. There is another storm plunging into the south over the weekend which will likely bend back up to the east next week. More big storage withdrawals on the way.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Just for clarification, chart g is showing last year’s numbers for comps.

  4. 4
    bill Says:

    2- And no one is talking about it.

    Overlay the short interest in the ng stocks and you set up for the perfect storm for an upsurge in ng and ng ep stocks

  5. 5
    nifkin Says:

    Southwestern Energy Changes Corporate Governance Policies
    2010-02-25 22:17:40.410 GMT

    Southwestern Energy Changes Corporate Governance Policies

    Board of Directors strengthens the company’s corporate governance with adoption of director resignation policy and other changes

    Rights plan to be terminated

    PR Newswire

    HOUSTON, Feb. 25

    HOUSTON, Feb. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — Southwestern Energy Company (NYSE:
    SWN) today announced that the company has amended its bylaws and corporate governance guidelines to establish a new policy that now requires a nominee for director in an uncontested election who receives a greater number of votes “withheld” from his or her election than votes “for” such election to submit an offer of resignation.  The company’s corporate governance guidelines have also been amended to reflect additional improvements recently adopted by the Board, including stock ownership guidelines for directors.  The Board of Directors also recently established stock ownership guidelines for the company’s senior executives.

    “The decision to implement these governance changes reflects our commitment to having sound corporate governance policies and practices and bolsters what we believe is an already strong corporate governance platform.  These enhancements will ensure that the company continues to be governed in the best interests of its stockholders,” said Steve Mueller, President and Chief Executive Officer of Southwestern Energy.

    Separately, the company’s Board of Directors also voted to accelerate the expiration of the company’s current shareholder rights plan, which was scheduled to expire in April 2019, to be effective as of 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on February 26, 2010. 

    “With respect to rights plan, the board of directors regularly evaluates the effectiveness of and need for a rights plan and has determined that the plan is unnecessary at this time,” Mr. Mueller stated.  “The Board of Directors will continue to make such evaluations in the future and will take such actions that it determines in the exercise of its fiduciary duties to be necessary or advisable in order to protect the interests of our stockholders.”

    Southwestern Energy Company is an integrated company whose wholly-owned subsidiaries are engaged in oil and gas exploration and production, natural gas gathering and marketing. Additional information on the company can be found on the Internet at http://www.swn.com.

    All statements, other than historical financial information, may be deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. All statements that address activities, outcomes and other matters that should or may occur in the future, including, without limitation, statements regarding the financial position, business strategy, production and reserve growth and other plans and objectives for the company’s future operations, are forward-looking statements. Although the company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. The company has no obligation and makes no undertaking to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.
    They are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may affect the company’s operations, markets, products, services and prices and cause its actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In addition to any assumptions and other factors referred to specifically in connection with forward-looking statements, risks, uncertainties and factors that could cause the company’s actual results to differ materially from those indicated in any forward-looking statement include, but are not limited to: the timing and extent of changes in market conditions and prices for natural gas and oil (including regional basis differentials); the company’s ability to transport its production to the most favorable markets or at all; the timing and extent of the company’s success in discovering, developing, producing and estimating reserves; the economic viability of, and the company’s success in drilling, the company’s large acreage position in the Fayetteville Shale play, overall as well as relative to other productive shale gas plays; the company’s ability to fund the company’s planned capital investments; the impact of federal, state and local government regulation, including any legislation relating to hydraulic fracturing, the climate or over-the-counter derivatives; the company’s ability to determine the most effective and economic fracture stimulation for the Fayetteville Shale formation; the costs and availability of oil field personnel services and drilling supplies, raw materials, and equipment and services; the company’s future property acquisition or divestiture activities; increased competition; the financial impact of accounting regulations and critical accounting policies; the comparative cost of alternative fuels; conditions in capital markets, changes in interest rates and the ability of the company’s lenders to provide it with funds as agreed; credit risk relating to the risk of loss as a result of non-performance by the company’s counterparties and any other factors listed in the reports the company has filed and may file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). For additional information with respect to certain of these and other factors, see the reports filed by the company with the SEC. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    SOURCE Southwestern Energy Company

    Website: http://www.swn.com
    Contact: Greg D. Kerley, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer,
    +1-281-618-4803, or Brad D. Sylvester, CFA, Vice President, Investor
    Relations, +1-281-618-4897, both of Southwestern Energy Company
    -0- Feb/25/2010 22:17 GMT

  6. 6
    nifkin Says:

    ke paragrahps in there…Separately, the company’s Board of Directors also voted to accelerate the expiration of the company’s current shareholder rights plan, which was scheduled to expire in April 2019, to be effective as of 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on February 26, 2010.

    “With respect to rights plan, the board of directors regularly evaluates the effectiveness of and need for a rights plan and has determined that the plan is unnecessary at this time,” Mr. Mueller stated. ”The Board of Directors will continue to make such evaluations in the future and will take such actions that it determines in the exercise of its fiduciary duties to be necessary or advisable in order to protect the interests of our stockholders.”

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    I have not found a link to Bastardi’s private hurricane forecast video for 2010 but he is looking for a nasty season, as the conditions of El Nino which helped to squash the last season reverse. Will see if there is a text piece I can post.

    Bill – looking at the weather I have to start to think of 1.4 Tcf, instead of my 1.5 Tcf level.

  8. 8
    bill Says:

    tph on sd results

    Expectations were bad, results are much worse.

    tph on swn

    Really excellent. These guys are good

    and that sentiment is reflected in the respective stock prices

    so many non cash write offs do count 🙂

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Nifkin, saw that and forgot to put it in the post. Good catch and interesting. Need to go and look to see if this is related to their share count (for the potential need to raise the authorized shares which would indicate they are considering equity raise … which I really doubt, but that’s often the case with those terminations and not what first comes to mind which is “we want to sell ourselves”

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    bastardi video is on the web site–click on bastardi– yes he is calling for a busy huricane season

    oh i get it.. shut ins!!

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    SD call about to start:

    http://investors.sandridgeenergy.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196066&p=irol-EventDetails&EventId=2540209&WebCastId=952441&StreamId=1424920

  12. 12
    PackMan Says:

    Bill & anyone else.

    Any thoughts on where / how SD trades today? Is there a price to buy in at (for trading purposes)?

    Or should we leave this one for greener pastures for now ?

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Bill – by the way, thanks for going through SD, saved me the trouble and once I got into it I kind of thought it’s a thing that could reverse during the call, depending on how they handle the go-forward view.

  14. 14
    bill Says:

    sd talking up oiliness

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzcwNTcwfENoaWxkSUQ9MzY3NDI3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Bill – good plan, I still think of them offhand in their pre deal form, a gas company.

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    opens lower at 8.00 might climb to 8.20

    i almost might say avoid

    tph says

    Emotions will rock the stock today and maybe longer as our estimate of value drops from $20/share to $13/share (3P). We’d say good value is at $7 (comprised of $5/share proved gas reserves + $2/share oil plays), with hard floor somewhere around the $5/share 1P level (which assumes $6.50/mcf long term gas prices). The conference call today and analyst day on Tuesday of next week are critical for bolstering shaky investors (or at least minimizing the damage). With the worst of the news is over, it’s now about digging into SD’s go forward plans

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    I promise I have not read TPH this morning with my use of the words go forward in 13. I agree completely, didn’t realize their analyst meeting is Tuesday. Those can go either way obviously, not always all sunshine and lollipops and they are going to get some hard questions.

  18. 18
    PackMan Says:

    thanks;

    my guess is this should trade below 8 in the morning; possibly all day. Will have to see how hard the selling is. And of course the CC comments may have an impact, so keep posting what you hear.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Crude up 75 cents
    NG up 6 cents.

    Cold. Crude being led by HO.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    SM upped to Buy by Canaccord.

  21. 21
    bill Says:

    17- you couldnt have as it just came out

    tph concludes its remarks with this

    We currently estimate SD will generate $600-700mm/year in cash flow and have nothing drawn on their credit facility, so they’ve got capacity to spend well above their stated $860mm 2010 capex plan. If gas prices remain weak (say $5/mcf or below) we’d expect management to dramatically alter/lower plans. The most draconian approach would have SD doing no/limited Pinon drilling (2010 budget is $460mm), reducing production forecasts (maintaining the majority of oil EBITDA), and hunkering down until gas prices improve.

  22. 22
    bill Says:

    bottom line, imho sd is a highly levered way to play a recovery in ng.

    if ng doesnt recover, sd will falter

    if ng stays flat, they are ok in 2010 as they are well hedged, the problem is 2011 and beyond

    The “negative report” today is reserves issues calculated using 3.79 price not cash flow

    Ward talking alot about crazy sec rules

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Re 21, now running 12 rigs in Pinon, they’re still stepping up.

    He says it’s been difficult to understand reserve bookings this year. No kidding.

  24. 24
    bill Says:

    Interestingly, tph says sd is less bullish on ng prices than they are.

    thats why ward went out and spent 800 m for fst oil assets

  25. 25
    bill Says:

    ward asks , whats more important pv10 or reserves. He says they are screwed worse than their peers

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzcwNTcwfENoaWxkSUQ9MzY3NDI3fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

    refer to slide 8

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    SD: Unhedged for gas in 2011. They are spending a lot of time on reserves. Little bit of finger pointing in there. I don’t know that helps SD today. I’m waiting for that “a-ha” moment, not hearing it so far.

    Borrowing base redetermination. Sounds like they are going to be OK, have banks that want to join.

    It could get a distressed bounce after the open but my sense is that the safer play is to wait out the analyst meeting. But I’m still listening to see how the Q&A, which is starting now, goes.

  27. 27
    bill Says:

    lol the operator call tph guy heineken

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Hmmphh. Looking forward to the SWN call.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    re 27, happens everytime, David really should change his last name.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    “That was not meant to be a change in guidance, just taking away the high end of guidance” …. pardon me but that is a change in guidance.

  31. 31
    bill Says:

    industry fixated on growth not ebitda

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    SWN up 2% on the open, I may play an opportunistic trade there.

  33. 33
    bill Says:

    sd opened down 7 % 7.80

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    MMR bumping up to $17.

    Site I’ll be refreshing all day for the gas numbers:

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/eia914/eia914.html

  35. 35
    West Says:

    JB , I have 18.25 as p&f resistance on ATPG is that close to your trend line?

  36. 36
    bill Says:

    sd traded as low as 7.75 now at 7.91

    I think its back in the 8’s next week if not today

  37. 37
    bill Says:

    i bet the 914 shows growth in dec

    robry the flow guy shows production up in dec and january

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah, I think Dec up due to extra completions.

  39. 39
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #35, Good morning West…ATPG back into X’s on the buy signal with the print thru $18, ATPG is trading against channel line resistance now….

  40. 40
    West Says:

    Thx JB u got my vote. Thanks for all the good charts.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Lot of crunching going to have to happen here. I will probably only play if they crunk it post call.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    JB – any updated thoughts on WLL? Thx.

  43. 43
    jiveyjr Says:

    in the just gotta share dept….when I just voted my “validation phrase” was

    fired leeches….

    man oh man that made me laugh

    thx again JB

  44. 44
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #40,#42 West, thank you…WLL, also looking good right now…WLL pressing against the trendline as well…WLL goes back into x’s with the $74 print…just about there….

  45. 45
    elijahwc Says:

    02/23 piece from Globe and Mail on Utica Shale:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/quebec-shale-gas-find-could-redraw-canadas-energy-map/article1478900/

  46. 46
    john11 Says:

    agree jivey those phrases are wild..i just got “thin whacker’, great charts JB many thx!

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks much, 74.15 now. I voted and my pass phrase was just as apt:

    “wagering time”. I may actually change the name of the site to that, lol.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    MMR over $17, could be we see the Triad trade higher on the close for a next week flow test although I’m fuzzy on the timing of such a test.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    About to switch over to SWN call:

    http://www.swn.com/Pages/default.aspx

  50. 50
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – like the charts today. Chart F is an interesting one – the question i asked yesterday about the high and low for gas lays over that chart nicely.

    My SWN thoughts pre call:

    1. hedging? when? how much?
    2. New ventures? Where is all that capex headed?
    3. Haynesville/Bossier commentary and what do those wells cost?
    4. Any marcellus commentary.
    5. Why not buy GMXR and win me a free Zman tshirt?

  51. 51
    1520sbroad Says:

    Snowicane – very impressive here in NJ. I will get my money’s worth out of a chainsaw i bought last summer.

  52. 52
    reefguy Says:

    48- I do not think that test is going to happen next week

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Only 2 years of drilling inventory booked as PUDs, they could have done 5, so conservative.

    Thanks reef

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    SWN essentially flat on day after home sales and consumer sentiment dipped.

  55. 55
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – Pettit wells for SWN? New venture capital?

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Completing 6th Haynesville well and drilling two more now.

    Petit Oil well – 465 bopd + 2.5 mm/d, two more Petit wells completing. So they have a tiny bit of oil entering in.

    Marcellus – not a lot of color on this or new ventures.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    1520 – No Pettet news has been out there, they are going to have to explain at least a little that big chunk of capex going to new ventures.

  58. 58
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #43,#46,#47…jivey, john, Zman, thanks very much…

    MMR back into X’s on a fresh buy signal…

    BEXP, I continue to closly watch price action in light of the fairly strong developing divergences on the daily chart…after yesterday’s bullish hammer on the trendline, BEXP has not really followed thru yet, review stops if BEXP breaks back into the ascending triangle body and below the hammer’s shadow from yesterday…we ideally want to see trade above yesteday’s high

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Although maybe they are categorizing that as new ventures, but I don’t think so, I think that’s just because they are in the area in e. Tx.

  60. 60
    elijahwc Says:

    FST – Pritchard on their 300m net acres up north:

    Pritchard Capital Partners, LLC:

    Something more may be going on in Canada than the Olympics 02-24 11:25 AM

    Investment Summary The Alberta Deep Basin and Utica Shale could prove to be significant drivers of future growth for FST Event We are maintaining our price target of $26 and ‘Neutral’ rating for FST on account of the uncertainty surrounding the upside potential of its Granite Wash and Haynesville assets. However, we do believe that the Alberta Basin and Utica Shale may prove to be significant catalysts which will drive the value of the company higher. Investment Thesis • Alberta Deep Basin: This is an area to watch this year because of the Cardium play. FST has seen IP rates as high as 210 Bbls/d on short lateral wells. Furthermore, it has been able to reduce the cost of wells by eliminating the intermediate casing. Depending on how this play develops, it could drive the value of the company higher. • Utica Shale: FST has approximately 300,000 net acres in the play. Considering that Questerre Energy Corp. (QEC-$4.93) just announced a horizontal well with an IP rate of 12 MMcfe/d, this area could potentially be a significant driver for FST. • Granite Wash: FST has 94,000 net acres in the play. It has drilled four operated wells to date that have had an average IP rate of 30 MMcfe/d. Currently, it has three wells in various stages of completion. While rates of the company’s wells have been impressive, we are uncertain about the upside potential of the play given its seeming inconsistency. • Haynesville: FST has 127,000 net acres in the play. The majority of its acreage is in east Texas where results have not been as robust as in Louisiana. As such, we do not see much upside potential Valuation/Risks Our price target of $26 a share equates to an implied 6.5x 2010 EBITDA multiple and equals our per share NAV which is based on a $6.25/Mcf mid-cycle NYMEX gas price. Historically the company has traded at a 5.4x forward EBITDA multiple versus the peer group which has traded at 5.8x forward EBITDA (2005-2009 average) reflecting lower debt adjusted per share growth and the absence of a shale catalyst. …

  61. 61
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – Pettet is mentioned in the East TExas portion of their release so i assume it isn’t in the new venture budget.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Thanks again JB.

    1520 – yeah, see 57.

    SWN going through financials now, SWN reiterating the flexibility of the 2010 plan. Stock is starting to trade actively.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    SWN – areas that could be cut as part of that flexibility, New Ventures, and then E. Texas as that’s largely held acreage. So it would be less likely to affect the production guidance even if they trim it.

  64. 64
    Jerome Blank Says:

    MHR posted a new box with the print thru $3…this stock has been trading so well there really has not been any good opportunity to buy any meaningful pullbacks…

  65. 65
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN – marcellus – most drilling in bradford county, then susquehanna minimal in lycoming. They have takeaway in bradford and susquehanna.

    From the RRC release – they drilled a couple of wells in lycoming but won;t have takeaway until late 2010.

  66. 66
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    WHX: if memory serves, I think this is a dissolving trust will disolve once it produces 9 mill barrels total to it and its at around 1.6 now.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Pettet – trying to figure out how big it could be, COG has drilled 6 so far, at $60 oil it looks like a good play. Could be a 100 wells or just a handful to drill, just too early.

    New Ventures: targeting oil? Looking for the best projects either oil or gas, he’s just not going to give up the scoop on these.

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Busy on here this morning with so many posts already. All you natural gas addicts. FWIW cycles turn postive for natural gas from early March – jives with everything being said on here I think.

    Broader market:

    It looks very bullish to me despite every EW chartist screaming we are about to crash. The count I am looking at says we are heading for at least 1128 and potentially quite a bit higher. Right now we are likely embarking on i of iii up. i will likely complete in the 1120 area on Monday. Then a wave ii pullback into the middle of next week before we head higher again. The voodoo for next week does look pretty volatile.

    Big picture is we have resistance at 1110 and support at 1085. A break through either level is likely to prompt a big move.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    BSJ – thanks, wonder how the wind down works on that, by when is pretty easy to figure out though.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Not thinking about JV’s in their portfolio.

    They need $4 gas for F.S. and Marcellus to work and they think its a $5 breakeven for the E.Texas Haynesville.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    SWN – stock just drifting sideways, up 40 cents for most of this call.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Having their own sand plant will save them from $130 to 150 K per well on a $3 mm per well cost in the F.S. They had said $2.75 mm in the year end press release but I noted the higher number in this pr of $3 mm referring to 4Q levels. Lots of other synergies, will try to get to that $2.75 cost.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Crude up $1.60 now, still led by heating oil.

    SWN Call Notes:

    Calling their PUD locations 2.2 Bcf, note those are on a 3,700 foot lateral. They will be drilling 4,300 foot laterals and longer this year. So the EUR is likely to drift higher as the cost of the wells continues to drift lower.

    On the downspacing issue, they have had mixed results, about half showing good results, other half more of a question mark so it needs more study.

  74. 74
    andy Says:

    bop – KOG going to have any news for us next week on report or cc?

  75. 75
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:69 Just go and read through their 10K. It should explain how they are going to do this. I see where the production from the trust is 56% oil and 44% nat gas. From the 10K the trustee phone number is 1-800-852-1422 — They might be able to direct you to any relevant filings.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    SWN Call Notes:

    Service Costs: they own their own rigs and their own sand mine because this is the only way to hedge costs over time. Good answer.

    They are lengthening out how far ahead they buy the steel.

    As far as pumping goes, they are seeing upward pressure in the H.S. and the Marcellus. They are finding ways to cut costs out (drilling faster).

    Little bit under $100 K per frac stage. Hmm.

    Differentials: they have 140 Bcf of basis hedges at a very low level. Seeing continued collapse of differentials. Hearing that elsewhere, good to hear.

    SWN still trading sideways at 40 cents up.

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    BSJ – liking the yield, easy to model, just don’t see that it get’s dropped any more assets, looks like you have a couple more years before it goes away, weekend reading for me.

  78. 78
    bill Says:

    pv0 vs pv 10

    did i hear right that swn books at pv0??

    sd is booking at the harsher pv10 and using a discount of 10 %..this wipes out the pv of longer duration wells

    is swn pumping up its reserves using an easier discount rate???

    THIS IS HUGE!

  79. 79
    bill Says:

    SWN doesnt need rights plan which means mgt has their options in place

  80. 80
    bill Says:

    robry has dec production at 58.3 vs 56.9 for nov or 1.4 bcf more

    http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=259197&pt=msg&mid=8643841

    i dont know how this corelates to the eia numbers

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    re 78. It’s within guidelines for PUD booking, basically if its economic at all its in there for booking. Note that the PUDs this year basically add nothing to SEC PV10 value. It does kill my trade thought for a long there today. I don’t think it is a big deal long term honestly as you are talking about only 2 years of PUDs when they could have booked 5 and the price is $3.87 which won’t be the case next year.

  82. 82
    elijahwc Says:

    JB on MHR they will print $5+ by year end. In the interim there will an opportunity to buy as it prints through $3 as a financing will show up shortly thereafter. Apparently they have deal ready to go of about the same size as Triad. Canaccord was out earlier this month with a note saying that the firm “firm expects 2010 to be a year dominated by organic growth.” Organic indeed. This is a banking operation.

  83. 83
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Remember a trust is different from a MLP. A MLP can get drop downs and other assets along the way. While an American trust can only use the assets that they had when they first set up the trust. Canadian trusts are different in this aspect since they can add to the basic trust with other assets as time goes by.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    BSJ – good point, it is under trusts on my market watch, problem with typing this and listening to the SWN call at the same time.

  85. 85
    VTZ Says:

    Z – How much do you expect any growth in production in Iraq to ultimately effect the oil price?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    V – Tough question, not much more than $3 probably but impossible to really prove out. Depends on post U.S. evac stability, what happens with the Kurds who have a big exploration area that is liquids rich and if they come back under OPEC quota. I don’t believe some of the growth estimates out there, sounds like the new regime posturing to me.

    SWN Notes – Hayensville well costs – $10 mm.

  87. 87
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    VTR: did you listen to the Jim Chanos hour long talk link on China that I posted yesterday?

  88. 88
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #82, elijhah…MHR.. thank you for the very helpful insight….I’d really like to get it in a zone between $2.35 and $2.50…

  89. 89
    VTZ Says:

    No I did not but thanks for letting me know. I’ll go back and review it.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    SWN – Not going to touch that one today, I don’t like taking puts on good companies but am tempted, call not going great on the reserve questioning. I can see some slam piece coming out of a couple of analysts on Monday on the reserves. Generally reserve impacts are limited in duration in impact on the stock but they can be sharp.

  91. 91
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    VTR: posted under http://www.grahamanddoddsville.net

  92. 92
    1520sbroad Says:

    SWN – they did mention the detail in your
    #73 – 2.2BCF on 3,700ft laterals vs. 4,300ft laterals becoming the norm.

    A mixed bag of a call.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    1520 – sort of but then near the end of the call he said the 2.2 Bcfe EUR for puds was a company wide pud, not just for the Fayetteville. That just confused everyone.

    Very mixed bag. Happy to own the common for the long term, glad I don’t have calls at the moment.

  94. 94
    bill Says:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    WLL approaching $75, it is now above the high from Monday and looks to be making the move on this cycle high around $78.

    WLL at $75 would be

    2010: CFPS of $16.36 = 4.6x
    2010: CFPS of $20.85 = 3.6x

    One of the cheapest rockinbakkens out there

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    re 94, yeah, the hits just keeping coming

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    TAT walking up, $3.10 now.

    Bill – you get the shout of the day award on the PV0 comment, I’m guess that dogs them for a little bit unless gas really jumps near term.

  98. 98
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Chanos on technical analysis — go to frame 26 for a very funny view on tech analysis.

  99. 99
    VTZ Says:

    USD taking a beating today.

  100. 100
    Nicky Says:

    Although its not my preference I just want to give you the bearish possibility. That has the rally up since yesterday as a wave ii which will stall below 1110 and then we roll over hard. First stop would likely be 1070.

    I am not sure we are going to see the decision made today but something to look for if we gap up Monday and stall.

    I have it nagging away at me just because there is an important turn fib turn date on Monday.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    V – yeah, just doing a little reading over here as the stocks drift about on light, snowbound volumes.

    Next week we have ROSE, KOG, WRES among earnings reports.

    Supply report from the EIA got tabled until March 2.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    SWN off 2% now.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky, market looks a little worn out and inattentive today.

  104. 104
    bill Says:

    my last comment on the weather…this just out for next week 5 days out

    look at this.. a northeaster for march 4 for the northeast and east coast

    look at that cold weather pouring in behind the low

    http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_850144162_s.shtml

  105. 105
    nifkin Says:

    914 out

  106. 106
    bill Says:

    ok 1 more

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Temperature/FrostFreeze.aspx

  107. 107
    bill Says:

    105 where?? give me link ty

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    914 shows decline in December vs November. A bit surprising.

    Wyoming did come off – not surprising
    Other states off slight – that’s surprising
    Tx resumed the fall
    NM down worse than I would have thought, continues to roll
    Okla = flat – pretty darn surprising

    Overall down 0.7 Bcfgpd (these are gross withdrawals, we get the net marketed on Tuesday.

    This may put a little spring in the step of gas but they probably wait on the marketed numbers.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Bill – here:

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/data_publications/eia914/eia914.html

  110. 110
    bill Says:

    ty

    can you tell me what these terms mean

    gross withdrawals,
    net marketed

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    I’ll use the EIA’s words:

    Marketed production is calculated by subtracting gas used for repressuring, quantities vented and flared, and nonhydrocarbon gases removed in treating or processing operations from gross withdrawals.

    Gross is what comes up the pipe.

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Revisions to the prior month were up 0.15 Bcfgd which is pretty small.

    So down 0.7 Bcfgpd is positive, not great but in the right direction and unexpected. Lower 48 production looks like a chart that is basing (plateauing) before going lower, still haven’t fallen out of this base.

    NG looks unimpressed.

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    SWN down 3%
    SD down 8%

    Don’t see a reason to try and fish either one of those this afternoon.

  114. 114
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: SWN is it somewhat hedged now? Did they deal with that question by talking about their lower cost discipline?

  115. 115
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Z: What is your take on how various companies have been handling the new SEC reserve requirements? I would like to tip my hat to FST for any excellent job of their handling reporting of the PUDS.

  116. 116
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z or Bill – on the SWN PV0 vs. PV 10 question – can you give a nutshell summary of this? I have been monkeying around with this for an hour or so and am struggling to come up with SWN’s reasoning for doing this…

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    RE 114: they are 16% hedged a floor of $8.02. This is up slightly from their prior level which was about 10%. They said if gas prices stay down for a long time they will cut their Capex.

    Re 115. BSJ – It is all over the map. Very confusing to everyone involved as the SEC left a lot of discretion in the PUD booking process. Generally the reserves are of more limited value in how I look at stocks and I believe in how they trade than are other things like CF. Stock don’t trade off NAV as it is so dependent upon assumptions. This must be a real headache for shops like JS Herold.

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    1520 – They can use PV0 for some PUDs, it gives you an idea of what’s around the wells they have down so when prices rise, you get a gist of offset drilling potential. It adds nothing to the PV10 calc of the firm. Again, this matters for a point in time and then it fades away … unless prices for gas go lower long term and the PUDs get kicked off the sheet. They indicated those PUDS were economic at about $3.90 and the gas price used for last year’s calcs was $3.87 (which was the average front month, first day of the month, price for gas over the 12 months of 2009). Had that price been $4.40 we wouldn’t be having this conversation as they would have booked more reserves and using a PV10. The 10 is the discount number for those of you who don’t play in this stuff, that is used to pull the future cash flow stream from the reserves back in time to the present. The 0 would therefore not discount the time value of money.

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    I bet you Joe Almon at JPM has a downgrade or other harsh words for SWN on Monday.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Watch: Since it’s slow right now…

    On Monday I will be adding a new $10 K portfolio, the Zman Inefficient Markets portfolio, or ZIM. The ZIM will be disciplined, but less predictive and more reactive. Exactly the opposite of what everyone tells you you should be as an investor. I frequently see opportunities to take advantage of events which the market either doesn’t react to immediately or gets backwards. So this portfolio won’t sit in a position, waiting for a well to hit or an earnings number to beat, it will only trade after the fact and/or when the “ah-ha” moment happens. It will from time to time come in to take advantage of a string of red days when I think something has gotten out of whack and also during the occasional macro impacting event (like an outlier gas number or a ship sinking in the Strait of Hormuz).

    The current $10 KP II will be renamed the ZCAT and will continue to play in catalyst driven stuff, waiting with options for those wells to come in, that earnings report to beat, etc…

    So the ZIM is more special situations and may trade in stock as well as options, while the ZCAT will do what the $10 KP II has been doing with a sharpened focus on the Catalyst List.

  121. 121
    elijahwc Says:

    WHX – the most recent from RJR answers the NAV/life question:

    “As the limited life trust structure dictates, each distribution inherently reduces the value of the trust.

    After adjusting our model to
    incorporate the latest distribution, tweaking our production profile (i.e., higher gas weighting), our NAV decreases from $15.42 to $14.79. Our NAV is calculated using a 9% discount rate, which we believe is appropriate given the belowaverage risk associate with royalty trusts.”

    That being said, in this market with those yields this security is still going to go higher in price.

    Reminds me of another limited life asset, CQP, which could be had @$10 many times late last year for 16 -17% yield which now trades $14+. BTW, CQP today reaffirmed the $1.70 payout for 2010 so they will go higher as well, just not as much.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eli, good to know. Looking for yield for a couple of years here.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    TAT up 6%. JB, have you had any thoughts there. It’s the latest single digit midget play that I’ve liked that Reef threw our way for consideration. I usually take longer to react on those but their called forced me to write it up and all the parts are pretty easy to get your head around.

  124. 124
    elijahwc Says:

    WHX – Quantumonline.com, a wonderful and free resource offers up the following on WHX.

    Whiting USA Trust I

    Ticker Symbol: WHX CUSIP: 966389108 Exchange: NYSE
    Security Type: U.S. Royalty Trust

    BUSINESS: Whiting USA Trust I is a statutory trust created in October 2007. The business and affairs of the trust will be managed by The Bank of New York Trust Company, N.A., as trustee. Immediately prior to the closing of the IPO, Whiting will create the term net profits interest through a conveyance to the trust of a term net profits interest carved from Whiting’s interests in certain oil and natural gas producing properties, which properties are located primarily in the Rocky Mountains, Mid-Continent, Permian Basin and Gulf Coast regions of the United States. The net profits interest will entitle the trust to receive 90% of the net proceeds from the sale of production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids attributable to the underlying properties until the time when 9.11 MMBOE have been produced from the underlying properties and sold (which amount is the equivalent of 8.20 MMBOE in respect of the trust’s right to receive 90% of the net proceeds from such reserves pursuant to the net profits interest).

    IPO – 4/25/2008 – 10.85 Million Units @ $20.00/unit.

    Link to IPO Prospectus http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1255474/000095013408007439/d51039b4e424b4.htm

    Small Cap Stock – Market Value $ 319 Million

  125. 125
    choices Says:

    BOP-another question from the credit market challenged:
    -how may the BofAMerrill Lynch Master II index be charted-I cannot find it in the charting programs I follow.
    -is it possible to chart spreads between HY and say investment grade and/of T-Bonds.

    Thanks for your invaluable contributions to this excellent site-I fully agree with Z’s comments in his post that huge insight can be gained from the savvy contributors-this is indeed an invaluable site.

  126. 126
    1520sbroad Says:

    Z – thanks for #118. I was confused and got tied up in knots.

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Choices – her computer is having trouble today, may have to wait until Monday. Thanks for the comments about the site, I happen to like it as well.

    DJ triad, 2 of 3 slightly positive.

    March call list in the $10 KPII, most up, with WLL leading, looking strong to me on the chart as well, cheap cheap, everything else not that notable, although NFX has been trying. BEXP and HK down a nickel.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    1520 – If people abuse it for that they don’t get what drives stocks. So I will wait for Monday and hope for a big bad sell rating and then buy the options in the ZIM.

  129. 129
    Patipati Says:

    Just read that Edward C. Johnson – Fidelity – has taken stake in TAT

  130. 130
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Are you thinking SWN sees sub $40 Mon.

  131. 131
    1520sbroad Says:

    #128 – that is what was bothering me about the whole internal argument i was having with myself about this. Seems like a can’t see the forest for the pine needles on the ground type of argument. I have also followed SWN a long time and have a lot of respect for their mgmt team and couldn’t come up with a good reason why they would take this tack.

  132. 132
    1520sbroad Says:

    #131 – let me correct that last sentence and say i couldnt come up with a reason why they would take the tack that my befuddled reasoning thought they were taking.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    Scoop – dunno. If it does, I’ll take a jab at it.

    re 131. 1520 – All I can tell you is that it is not shady. It may sound that way and get spun that way but it’s not. I’ve seen worse and these are conservative guys. No way they believe gas stays down here or that they won’t get to drill those wells eventually with better EUR’s.

  134. 134
    zman Says:

    A little Friday diversion:

    http://trailers.apple.com/trailers/fox/wallstreetmoneyneversleeps/

    New Quote Watch:

    “Someone reminded me that I once said ‘Greed is good’ … now apparently it’s legal”

  135. 135
    BossmanG Says:

    Z, re: 120, very good idea! thanks again.

  136. 136
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: HP being added to the S&P after the close today.

  137. 137
    kaman Says:

    Gordon Gecko…the elephant.

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    Thanks for that catch on TAT above

    Boss – glad to hear ya think so.

  139. 139
    Alhambra Says:

    Reef’s HDY is rocketing away as well, go Guinea.

  140. 140
    zman Says:

    TAT and Kurdistan:

    Not like they are going in blind:

    This guy:

    http://www.tapcor.com/s/TechnicalAdvisors.asp?ReportID=332908&_Title=Geology-New-Ventures

    Used to work on this:
    http://www.hillwoodinternationalenergy.com/Assets/NorthernIraq.aspx

    The TaqTaq field mentioned is the big 30,000 bopd that Addax drilled that I talked about way back in 2007:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/2007/03/01/addax-petroleum-a-good-old-fashioned-growth-story/

  141. 141
    DrLink Says:

    Z, re the “stupid question unasked going down the elevator” here is one….BOP called EXXI perfectly yesterday and I was ready to do the same trade….but I have always been hesitant to hold a core position that has appreciated greatly and then trade small positions within it…take EXXI for example, my cost basis is $9.25 (thanks guys!) if i buy yesterday low 17’s for a trade to sell let’s say at 20 I’m exposing myself to 35%+ taxes on the trade (because of IRS first in, first out) but the underlying trade only went up 15%…..another example I have held Petrobank since it was in the 3’s , but I can’t afford to trade its moves from 50-55

  142. 142
    zman Says:

    MMR closing over $17 would be a nice feat, would like to see it drag EXXID on up. Already better MMR volume than last Friday.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    DRL – I’m not a tax accountant but I will say much of the ZLT (my stock holdings are in tax free money accounts). I don’t often consider tax consequences as part of my trade and on the stocks where I am taxable I generally don’t do quick trades. On the options side, her move would have resulted in a much bigger and yes taxable gain but that’s a problem to have. I did nothing yesterday about it. Not sure if that was your question or not but if not please reiterate or rephrase. Thanks for reading the post.

  144. 144
    RobBanks Says:

    Citi’s LINE report if anyone wants to see it. Favorable, BUY rated with PT of $29.50

    https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SNA50672.pdf

    Z- what is your opinion of Citi’s analysts?

  145. 145
    zman Says:

    Rob – for MLP’s I doubt I have one. For E&P it depends on who is still there, is that Driscol or is he at Barclays, I forget, its’ Friday and there is much anticipation of beerthirty today.

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    Rob – I don’t know the two guys listed on that report.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    BEXP trading flat today after outperforming late yesterday. I think we are a week to two weeks from more well news there.

  148. 148
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: 141/143…I am a former tax acct. and run money for a family and a private foundation. I trade in and out like BOP all the time. We use specific identification to compute gains on our trades rather than first in first out. We’ve done it that way for years and will do it this year. Our returns are reviewed and signed by Price Waterhouse Coopers the firm I was a tax manager with, back when Abe Lincoln was President. I’m sure specific identification is okay and we always do it to our best advantage….

  149. 149
    reefguy Says:

    TRGL- News anyone??

  150. 150
    1520sbroad Says:

    #144 – Richard Roy has been at Citi a while. Good analyst i think. I used to pick his brain via email and he was alwyas thorough.

    Their MLP guy is John Tysseland (sp?) – also a good analyst. I’ve had a couple of good conversations over the years with him.

  151. 151
    john11 Says:

    Just to chime in on jivey’s comments, have used specific lot id’s for years and have always had the blessings of my accounting guys. love the flexibility.

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    TRGL – popping up out of that little base, don’t see anything on the wires.

    Re – I use that for options trades, not sure what they do for the stocks but my tax guy is pretty good.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    BEXP doing what JB wanted it too, getting through yesterday’s high.

  154. 154
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: The E&P guy @ Citi is Robert S Morris. He has not been there long. Replaced Gil Yang. Last time his name came up I think BOP had an opinion that I thought was good.

  155. 155
    jiveyjr Says:

    lots of our names getting a bid…had some sell orders in, took ’em out…always like ’em too much when they going up…I can really trade like a putz some times.

  156. 156
    zman Says:

    I’ve met Bob a couple of times, competent, been around longer than I have, not sure where he stands on the macro at this point but I’d say he knows his stuff.

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    MMR moving on up. My 17.50’s a alive and kicking.

  158. 158
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #123 TAT…daily chart perspective and comment…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    JB – thanks man! If they are after the same kind of stuff Addax was in Kurdistan, and I can’t see why they wouldn’t be, these are very big targets. 1 well = multiples of current production. The Hillwood link in 140 tells you they were all over the plays in 2008.

  160. 160
    zman Says:

    BOP musing in an email that:

    could be some end of month pricing pushes by funds.. so, could see a real push in last minute of day.

  161. 161
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXID intraday update….nice looking bullish flag forming on the 30 min chart, could be staging for a break, stops below the lower trendline…

  162. 162
    elijahwc Says:

    WLL – I’m told Barclay’s is out with a $22 cash flow guess for WLL. Haven’t seen it, so did anybody else see this? Z your charts says 4x for ’10. Is it possible for the company to be this cheap? Are these guys drinking kool-aid or do they have company? I guess the real question is why I’m sticking with the best success, priced accordingly (BEXP) when it should be moved to the greatest potential price, given value. I guess I haven’t been paying attention and the $22 cfps # just hit me over the head. Z, am I way off-base on this????

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    Market shrugging off Greece today:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100226/bs_afp/greecefinanceeconomy_20100226184136

  164. 164
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #161, updated 30 min EXXID chart…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  165. 165
    zman Says:

    Eli – sounds like a 2011 number for WLL, correct?

    Street #s:
    Range of CFPS on 2010 is 14 to 18.83

    2011: range is 16 to 24.60 avg 20.85

    BEXP is expensive by many measures. WLL is cheap however their cash cost structure is high for the group I follow so that’s part of it. Oil is going to have higher LOE naturally, but the other cash costs are a touch high as well.

    I will be running down new Orange Charts next week.

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    Beerthirty, have a great weekend.

  167. 167
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXID 30 min chart updated…you can see a fairly well defined topside trendline with resistance right at the intersection of the mini flag at about $18.50…resistance was evident at the intersection pulling off the breakout effort…

  168. 168
    West Says:

    XEC had another good day.

  169. 169
    jy Says:

    Re #117 above;
    From Oct 6, 2009 comments on this site:

    jy Says:
    ….With new SEC regulations regarding reserve estimates that will be reflected in company announcements at year end 2009 I suspect there may be wide variations among reserve analysts estimates for Proved reserves in these resource plays; engendering confusion among investors as to what those reserve numbers mean…..

    Confusion reigns!! Good luck w/ferreting out the relative reserve positions of the U.S. public companies.

  170. 170
    PackMan Says:

    Dr Link — you don’t have to use LIFO; you can select which lots you buy and sell; but you need to keep records.

    Or use diff trading accounts

    (exxid)

  171. 171
    PackMan Says:

    meant FIFO

  172. 172
    elijahwc Says:

    Z – On WLL 22.00 CFPS its ’11. Sorry for causing the commotion. I’ll have to turn my hearing aid up. Thanks.

    Also, same party related that Gastem (GMR.V) was the Company that has put all the permits together on the Utica and FST agreements and B?S won’t incent them to be in a hurry there.

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    From the ROSE PR that hit the tape just now:

    To date, the Company has drilled, cored, and logged three vertical delineation wells across a large areal extent of its acreage position to assess the resource potential of its southern, northern, and downdip lease positions. All three of these delineation wells encountered oil-bearing reservoirs in the Banff (Lodgepole), Bakken, and Three Forks intervals, as well as the Nisku located a few hundred feet below the Three Forks. Additionally, reservoir pressures taken from the Banff, Bakken, and Three Forks reservoirs all indicated that these reservoirs are over-pressured. Based on preliminary reservoir analysis from ongoing core and log studies, we believe the original oil in place (“OOIP”) of this system across these three delineation wells (which are located more than 28 miles apart on strike and more than 8 miles apart on dip) ranges from 12.5 to 15.3 MMboe per square mile. If correct, this OOIP on a per square mile basis compares favorably to the Williston Basin Bakken play. Based on this encouraging data, all three of these vertical delineation wells were plugged back and operationally set up to re-enter and test at a later date.

    During the fourth quarter of 2009, the initial vertical delineation well, the Tribal Gunsight #31-16H was drilled horizontally to a total measured depth of 9,206 feet (4,837 feet TVD) with a lateral length of 4,100 feet. This well was then fracture-stimulated and produced oil to test facilities on location, thus confirming the prospectivity of this play. To corroborate fluid flow back rates, production and tracer logs were run to determine fracture placement and effectiveness. These logs indicated that only 20% of the stimulation was placed in zone. Given the implied production rate, the Company remains very encouraged about this large unconventional oil position. Rosetta continues to add acreage in the play and has grown its position to 254,000 net acres.

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    Re 173. So they didn’t get the frac off properly but the data looks good. Bakken OOIP is oft quoted at about 9 mm boe per section so 12.5 to 15.3 is nice to see. Its also good to see the wells are scattered across a wide area meaning less chance they were just into a sweet spot. We’ll get lots more detail on the call. The lack of rate may hinder an opening pop in the stock, we shall see but this is good news. Should be good for KWK and NFX which have been leasing in the area as well.

    Initial look at 4Q results looks good with production and revenues towards the high end of the range and the bottom line in line. I’ll have more tomorrow on this.

    They’ve added 24,000 net acres since the last update in the Alberta Bakken.

    I’ll have more over the weekend …

  175. 175
    baylor3217 Says:

    Ung was near an all time low today. I know it doesn’t sem to be too popular but it has had several 20-30% moves in the last several months that have been tradeable.

  176. 176
    zman Says:

    Good news for Aubrey:

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-26/chesapeake-ceo-wins-dismissal-of-excess-pay-suit-update1-.html

  177. 177
    bill Says:

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2010/0224.html

  178. 178
    bill Says:

    I was talking about this earlier today

    Monday will be an up day for ng

    http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?article=5

  179. 179
    bill Says:

    for you weather fanatics

    just found this..very cool map.

    z you might want to link this

    month to date temp maps to normal

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/asos/?map_type=avgtemp.dfn&format=.cont&begmonth=2&begday=1&endmonth=2&endday=24&years%5B%5D=2010&submitted=Animate+Selection#instructions

  180. 180
    bill Says:

    you can define the days to animate

    so on this one coresponds to the eia weekly data for next week

    cooler than normal central part of the country

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/asos/?map_type=avgtemp.dfn&format=.cont&begmonth=2&begday=19&endmonth=2&endday=27&years%5B%5D=2010&submitted=Animate+Selection#instructions

  181. 181
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill, those are pretty darn cool.

    Elduque – run for the hills man, just watching the coverage, looks like you have under 5 hours until the tsunami hits HI. Best thoughts to you and yours.

  182. 182
    zman Says:

    Thanks again, Bill, I’ll put these in the weather page. I’ve posted the wrap and will move topic over there and move these links over there as well.

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