21
Jan

Thursday – Oil & Natural Gas Inventory Preview Plus

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Market Sentiment Watch: Busy day as we get both the natural gas and oil inventory reports today. China data came in hot to estimates, especially on inflation, sending worry through international markets that Beijing would act to rein in growth. One of the worries for crude mentioned in the last few days has been slumping demand from China ... apparently that's unfounded, at least not if 10.7% GDP growth counts for anything. On the U.S. equity front GS reported a beat with shares trading higher this morning and on the economic front today we have:

Eco Data Watch:

  • Jobless claims came in at 482K vs a forecast of 435K,
  • We get Philly Fed (forecast 17.5) and Leading indicators (forecast 0.7%) at 10 am EST,
  • EIA Natural Storage Report (normal time of 10:30 EST),
  • EIA Oil Inventory Report (delayed to 1 pm EST due to MLK Day),


In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - MVO plus other oil Royalty Trust yield thoughts, APC, TRGL
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:

    • $24,400
    • 33% Cash
  • Yesterday's Trades:
    • None


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell $1.58 to close at $77.74 yesterday. After the close, the API released a fairly bullish looking set of data compared to Street expectations (see below). This morning crude is trading up slightly.

  • China Watch: Production actually inched 0.5% lower in 2009 due to declines in older fields and storm damage to some offshore facilities. The year did end on a high note with December showing a YoY bump of 1.6% putting the country's production at 5th in the world vs its number 2 consumer spot. Overall, Chinese production is showing a recent modest deceleration in growth.

Natural gas fell $0.06 to close the day at $5.50. This morning gas is trading up by about what they lost yesterday as we await today's storage report.

  • Natural Gas Storage Preview:

    • My Estimate: 205 to 210 Bcf Withdrawal. 

      • Last Week: 266 Bcf withdrawal
        • gas weighted HDDs were a whopping 269 vs only 221 for this reporting period.
        • imports were higher in that week by 0.4 Bcfgpd than they are for this report.
      • Last Year: 176 Bcf withdrawal
      • 5 Year Average: 152 Bcf withdrawal
      • 10 year Hi: 235 Bcf withdrawal
      • 10 year Low: 29 Bcf withdrawal
    • Street Consensus Estimate: 219 Bcf Withdrawal.

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch:

  • Crude: DOWN 1.8 MM barrels
  • Gasoline: UP 0.667 MM barrels
  • Distillates: DOWN 3.385 MM barrels. API showed a sharp spike in demand which historically makes sense as heating oil tanks are often restocked during the mid winter calm.

ZComment: API has been directionally correct of late. If EIA approaches these levels look for a rebound in HO and crude today.

Stuff We Care About Today

 

MVO Quick Look

  • Kansas and Colorado mid-continent assets; interest in about 1,000 wells
  • Oily with 98% coming from oil production at mid year 2009.
  • Production fell back from end of 2008 highs in early 2009 as presumably the operator moved to maintenance mode as oil and gas prices contracted in the back half of 2008 and early 2009.

  • All in operating costs are running about $25 / BOE which is not excessive.
  • Trust operation expenses are acceptable in my book and have been falling which is a plus (either way they are not the swing on the distribution here).
  • Yielding 9-ish% now based on trailing twelve months distribution with includes some low priced oil and gas. Presuming they hold production flat at the most recent 2,600 BOEpd level distributions are fairly predictable.
  • They have hedged about 2/3rds of current total company production at $65.03 for 2010 which helps to ensure the distribution. Last quarter they saw small gain on their hedges, going forward they could see a small loss if prices remain elevated but the distribution is still going to swing with oil prices as you can see here.

  •  Table of oily royalty trusts - just to get a little relativity

 

  • Note - most quote lines will use trailing 12 months for distributions and therefore the yield calculation may be reflecting past conditions (like lower pricing) than the current outlook would indicate.
  • I'm doing a little more work here for oily, yieldy exposure for tax-free accounts (beats MLPs which have different tax considerations and should not be used in said tax free accounts)
  • Nutshell: While MVO is what I would call OK, WHX appears to be more favorable in terms of costs, payout, and current dividend (much higher yield). Base on 4Q oil and natural gas prices WHX should see a small pick up in distribution, but I need to do a little more work before chosing a new yield position. Tune in tomorrow.

APC Appraisal Well Off Ghana Successful

  • Tweneboa 2 well - > 105 feet of net pay in a 500 foot interval (56 feet of it oil pay);
  • 4 miles, downdip, to the southwest of the discovery well
  • The discovery well recorded > 60 feet of pay so this appraisal is showing sands fatten downdip like the drilling partnership was hoping.
  • 13 miles west of their Jubliee development
  • More appraisal wells planned in the near future
  • Speaks to the efficacy of their W. African deepwater Cretaceous fan play trend

TRGL To Get Gobbled by European Big Oil?

  • Large acreage position (right to explore > 750 K acres) in the Paris Basin oil shale attracting the attention of at least 3 European Majors
  • The French Liassic play is a big bowl shaped, non geological complex play.
  • This could be a partnership to accelerate drilling or it could be a takeout. I sort of expect the latter as the TEV here is still small at only $280 mm (barely a morsel for the names involved).
  • First well had oily cores, completion expected early Feb.

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • (BEXP) - upped from Accumulate to Buy at Tudor
  • (WLL) - started at Accumulate at Tudor


 

221 Responses to “Thursday – Oil & Natural Gas Inventory Preview Plus”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Seeing some big gas #s out there, mid 220 Bcf range this morning.

    NG up 12 cents now, with flat oil and slightly down equity market.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    Citi initiating on HP and NBR with Buys. I think everyone is going to jump on the buy HP train in front of what looks like higher aggregate capex and a year long rebound in the rig count.

  3. 3
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RMD: re VQ – yes you have that right, especially their non Calif assets. You will know how serious they are on Monterey if they sell some of their other Calif assets.

  4. 4
    nifkin Says:

    gas #s been creeping up- median draw is -231 bcf, avg is now -229 bcf- think we may be setting up for a miss/ selloff at 10:30?

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Platts survey now looking for range of 223 to 227 Bcf.

  6. 6
    bill Says:

    I think we beat the 220 number. Today is ng day,imho. I saw one guy at 250 (robry)

    Colder weather coming back too

  7. 7
    nifkin Says:

    BENTEK projects a withdrawal of 250 Bcf this week, bringing inventory levels to 2,602 Bcf.
     BENTEK’s Daily Range projects a 247-Bcf midpoint; the Supply and Demand Balance projects a 257-Bcf withdrawal.
     Arctic blast draws stocks down below the five-year average in both the East and Producing Regions.

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Colder weather coming back? Not in the next few days…. gonna rain here in the DEE-troit area this weekend. At this time of year, “rain” usually comes down as snow.

  9. 9
    bill Says:

    2010 outlook for vq

    cap ex 180m
    cash flow 140 m

    they need to sell something

    their debt is costing almost 10 %

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Nifkin – perhaps, but I see some of the really good modelers, at high levels as well. Robry was who I was thinking of as a really good quant modeler Bill, lol. We had cold weather scooting into the first half of that week and such transitioning weather weeks often see a wider spread of results than ones in which the week was consistently cold or warm. My math comes out lower but I’m betting I’m low to the actual.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Gasman at -236 Bs of draw… thinks over 245 is bullish and under 220 is bearish.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    BOP – everything pointing to a return of cold in February. January thaw is typical (Indians used to plan around it), this one has been a bit warmer than normal but overall this has been a very cold winter.

  13. 13
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: TRGL — Damn, I was going to mention that stock in your takeover contest. TRGL is another play on the transference of horizon/fac tech into other parts of the world. Their play is the shale in the Paris Basin. Well, at least I own some of the shares in it — though I am curious at the price these majors are talking about. If you ever have seen a company that “couldn’t shoot straight”, this is the one.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Put a blurb in the post about the speculation around TRGL. No idea if that’s a takeout or a JV, stock ran yesterday on high volume like it was the former and they have been publicly looking for the latter.

  15. 15
    bill Says:

    8, lol

    depends on what the meaning of “is” is

    http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp1.html

    detroit is the reddest part of the country

    id be happy with normal

    yes your right for the next week, the week after… brrr

    http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4253&mn=5984&pt=msg&mid=8469146

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — #12 no doubt cold weather coming back. Just not this weekend!

    TechTrader calling for a 55.45 SHORT trade today.

    HeadTrader scratching his head… we are thinking that new from China is the market driver y’day and today. They are trying to slow the growth there.

    Meanwhile, consumer-sensitive stocks reporting some pretty good numbers… eBay, PNRA, SBUX all up in pre-

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    More TRGL – was actually typing 14 before I saw 13. Catalyst there is the well that’s seen a completion delay but is set to go off in the next couple of weeks – they are talking 12 to 14% porosity which is a lot better than the Bakken (usually in the 5 to 8% range) but lower pressure (missed how much lower in their presentation). Little stocks like that can move in the event the well really flows and people note that while not cheap, it would give a big acreage position to the Majors when they are all suddenly clamoring into the shale plays.

  18. 18
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    typos…

    55/45 SHORT trade

    news from China

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Re 16 – China may be trying to slow but that was the reason given for the sell off in crude the last couple of days, reason being that it had already slowed. Yeah right.

  20. 20
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “trying to slow” and “slowing” are universes apart, of course…

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Tom – thanks for that name, weekend reading always welcome in something pretty different from my normal stomp.

  22. 22
    bill Says:

    here is the chart of the 1 yr strip

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=X3Y0&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&divd=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

    question, can we take out 6 bucks

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    How China slowing (ok, potentially slowing) and higher than expected claims is dollar positive, especially after yesterday, is beyond me. Dollar trading technically. Today looks like breakout to the upside day.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Bill – yeah but I don’t think there is a lot of reason to move a whole lot higher just yet. Unless your production is conventional I mean, or in one of the higher cost shales. And that’s probably only 80% of the U.S. production base so why worry? It sounds more sarcastic in my head than on the screen. I still think we are range bound for a time. Next December is trading $6.60 and then pretty flat beyond. Until we see the 914 data roll lower (again) I doubt we move much beyond $6.50 on the strip, sometime latter this year.

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Hearing some pretty gianormous stuff about the Davy Jones discovery. Thing is, it will take several years and lots of major bucks to bring that field on line. Fear is that the cocktail shrimp in the group (EXXI) is going to have to raise capital, just to keep up their end of the 15.8% working interest. That is probably true. But, at the rate EXXI will be able to pay down debt over the next 12 months, there will be capacity freed up to issue new debt (at a lower cost) making it less dilutive, than some people think. Wouldn’t be surprised to see EXXI issue a large slug of high yield debt in a yr and a half, to take out the 16%s and fund Davy Jones.

    Just some thoughts…

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    How TPH justifies an Accumulate rating on WLL but a Buy on BEXP is hard to figure.

    By the way, oil numbers come out at 11 am EST, not 1 pm EST as I have in the post.

  27. 27
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE: TRGL — that well they this drilled is a vertical well not horizon well. They are doing this to 1) check out the geology, 2)give them some more P1 reserves and some cash flow. They are hoping to get a partner to help with horizontal development of the Paris Basin. Right now they do not have the money or the experience to do this. They do have the land though.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    BSJ – right, good plan on their part in that regard. Saw their well design for the next one, not high cost, good of them to have sold Hungary, Turkey etc to focus here. Wildcard play, stock moving on the headlines, could do that for awhile, valuations notwithstanding on their historical proved.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    EXXI – said yesterday and last week they would need about $40 mm (delta from CF to Capex) this year. Thats chump change at this point. So if its an equity raise, I put it in the category of “oversubscribed”.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Stocks green at open but not jumping out of the gate, trading pretty moot pre 2 sets of inventory reports.

  31. 31
    elijahwc Says:

    In a complete and utter surprise to all the following is crossing on the wires:

    U.S. Energy elected to participate in the third group of five wells with Brigham Exploration (5.74 +0.11)

    Co announced that it has elected to participate in the third group of five wells with Brigham Exploration Company (BEXP) under the terms of the previously announced Drilling Participation Agreement and provided a production update along with a summary of its 2010 oil and gas budget. After receiving formal notice of the early 24-hour initial production rate from the sixth well in the previously announced drilling program with Brigham, on January 11, 2010, co notified Brigham on January 15, 2010 of its election to participate in the third group of five wells. Brigham notified the Company that it will participate for 50% of its original working interest in each of the five 1,280 acre spacing units. Co will therefore participate for the remaining 50%… Co has initiated review and analysis of establishing a conservative hedging program for 2010. This program is anticipated to be established in the second quarter of 2010 in anticipation of establishing a credit facility for the Company to access in the third quarter of 2010.

  32. 32
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #29 — it doesn’t worry me… but it does seem to bug some people. Personally, i put it down as a High Class Problem to have…

  33. 33
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Looked at the Johnson Rice report last night on EXXI. Their debt to cap @ 76% if you include the pref as debt. After MitEnergy the base will increase but the new production on the shelf is less than 2 years away and the deepwater is 4+ years away. Do you think that if there is execution risk the balance sheet could get them into trouble?

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Eli – Good catch – none of us have seen the 6th well. That should be the Jackson 35-34 well, central to their Rough Rider area. Not surprised at all to see a long lateral with 30 or so frac stages put up a rate that would push USEG’s hand.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Tom – I think you have a year at minimum before that’s looming concern. Definitely execution in a play like this though. I do think they do a deal (higher) so the denominator is going to change. Also, they have a lot of reserves to back that up (debt/Mcfe) and those reserves don’t include anything for the ultra deep.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch:

    NFX – FBR takes target from $55 to $63.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    TRGL up 11%, everything else waffling about pre numbers.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    FST threatening to move on up, after consolidating since its Granite Wash news last week.

  39. 39
    skimo Says:

    should I consider the “quality” of SSN’s presentation to be representative of their earnings potential?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Skimo – probably not.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Philly Fed low to exp, Leading indicators better than exp.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Skimo – that may be the lease instructive response I’ve ever given but honestly I stopped reading when I saw typos in their press release. The nature of the pr’s doens’t help either. Thought it was worth a look, didn’t come away enthused.

  43. 43
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    TRGL: they claim that their Paris basin properties has the same spec as the Bakkans. If you look at past presentations they lay out the case quite well. TRGL biggest problem in the past has been management. They are on the third management team over the last few years.

  44. 44
    tomdavis12 Says:

    BOP; re JR report. Ya gotta love the quote “Combining its existing reserve/production profile with the ultra-deep exploratory program, investors are exposed to significant upside.” A little more bold than most sell side analysts.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    NG – not sure what the reaction is to a 230 Bcf number. In this 210 to 250 Bcf range, we have nearly erased the surplus to the year ago number. At the 250 level, we would actually be below the 5 year average. Won’t last long as next week will see a smallish draw but if Feb does return to cold like forecast by some, we could be looking at a substantial sub 5 year average start to the injection season.

  46. 46
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    tomdavis — i thought JR’s report was the best verbal encapsulation of the opportunity set embedded in EXXI that I have read. ha! It sent “shivers up my leg.” LOLOLOL

  47. 47
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #33 And, fwiw, i would not include the Preferreds as “debt”… but, I’m kind of a debt-snob… it’s got to have covenants with teeth (the kind that get you the keys to the car, when management crashes), in order to be considered “debt.”

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    S&P cliff diving again for support at 1130

  49. 49
    West Says:

    Fly by report. Here is TX RRC report for XEC wells in Jefferson Co, TX. The Two Sisters well went on production in July, 2009. The Garth #1 went on production in I believe 11-09 and Jefferson Airplane 1&2 went on production in 12-09 and they just hooked up the Amazon Queen #1 last week. The Jefferson Airplane #1 should also be hooked up this month. They should have at least 8 Cana-Woodford wells that they have completed since their last report in November. Expect update around the 1st part of February before earnings release…….http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjU1NzZ8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1….This is the address from yesterday’s presentation you can also get back to it through yesterday conference address.Looks strong for future growth not a flashy company and not much ra ra.Operator Name: CIMAREX ENERGY CO., Operator No: 153438
    County Statewide Onshore
    Monthly Totals, Jan 2009 – Dec 2009

    Date Oil (BBL) Casinghead (MCF) GW Gas (MCF) Condensate (BBL)
    Jan 2009 572 0 34,077 3,338
    Feb 2009 883 0 28,548 2,996
    Mar 2009 169 0 30,281 3,138
    Apr 2009 0 0 28,353 3,042
    May 2009 0 0 29,402 2,952
    Jun 2009 0 0 28,791 2,861
    Jul 2009 0 0 761,035 70,576
    Aug 2009 0 0 888,805 83,892
    Sep 2009 0 0 858,546 83,972
    Oct 2009 0 0 814,490 78,567
    Nov 2009 14 0 877,986 85,375
    Dec 2009 0 0 0 0
    Total 1,638 0 4,380,314 420,709

  50. 50
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Cross-Asset Class Strategist #2… thoughts on Washington Rhetoric vs Stock Market Volatility

    http://www.capmarkets.com/ViewFile.asp?ID1=336389&ID2=350370621&ssid=2&directory=11608&bm=0&filename=Here_Comes_The_Rhetoric_1-21-10.pdf

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Natural gas inventory report:

    Gas up a dime pre report

    245 Bcf

    Oil numbers out in 30 minutes.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    S&P fell 10 points in 10 minutes.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Gas up slightly post report.

    Storage is below the 5 year average by 6 Bcf.

    Vs year ago levels we are 0.9% ahead.

  54. 54
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader saying “no news”… no explanation for the sudden sell-off. Hitting the little micro-cap kids in the head with an Ugly Stick, tho.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    NG and the stocks could care less, eying the broad market for the moment with the S&P having sliced initial support at 1130.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    BOP – looking at the minute chart, looks like a number sell programs kicked in. Could reverse out just as easily with the oil numbers.

  57. 57
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Soros must have shorted futures this morning… this feels like programmed trading pushing a low volume mrkt around.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    S&P – another 10 points, down to 1,114 and you’re at the 50 day sma.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    NG up 2 cents.

  60. 60
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG, EXXI…intraday…so far KOG holding the topside trendline on the daily triangle, $2.50 remains firm support…EXXI closed the gap at $3.60 and is trying to make a stand at the 100 period SMA at $3.50 on the 30 min chart…hopefully this holds, if not look for intraday support again at $3.35…

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Re 53 … got that backwards:

    Said:
    Gas up slightly post report.

    Storage is below the 5 year average by 6 Bcf.

    Vs year ago levels we are 0.9% ahead.

    Should have been down to the year ago and ahead of the 5 year by 0.9%.

  62. 62
    bill Says:

    fantastic gas numbers as far as im concerned

  63. 63
    Wyoming Says:

    http://www.epmag.com/EPBuzz/2010/01/21/

    Salazar closes the candy store

    The UN is dyslexic

    The military thinks that oil and gas is a good thing

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Bill – hear ya on that, just eyeballing my data and going back to 1994, I don’t see a time when we pulled over half a T from storage over two weeks (511 Bcf to be exact). In the heart of winter we topped 600 Bcf a few times in a 3 week span, sure, but never this much in 2 weeks. Going to listen to Bastardi’s latest on February after the oil numbers come out in 10 minutes, but truly remarkable demand, especially in light of relatively elevated prices which should have sent producers scrambling to get more on line, already high production, and a surge in imports.

  65. 65
    bill Says:

    how much due to xcold and how much due to lower production is key and i dont know that answer

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventory Report

    Crude just before report: down 35 cents at $77.40.

    Inventories:
    Crude: down 0.4 mm barrels
    Gasoline: up 3.9
    Distillates: down 3.3

    Crude imports: off to 8.5 mm bpd, lowish

    Demand:
    Gasoline: 8.6 mm bpd, slightly lower
    Distillates: 3.823 mm bpd, better than we’ve seen in several weeks.

    …. more in a second

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    More EIA:

    Utilization tumbled to 78.4%, very low. This dropped refinery throughput by 200K bopd.

    Imports were down 350K bopd

    U.S. production was down about 100 K bopd week to week. So you get a decline in oil stocks despite lower crude demanded by refineries.

    Good to see the distillates demand arrive, finally.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Cushing fell again, as API predicted and by 0.8 mm barrels, nearly their estimate. This should take a little pressure off crude.

    Nutshell: Mixed bag of numbers. On a market day like today, I could see oil off on these, maybe into the mid $70s. No reason here for a big sell down that I see though.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Hey BOP, did you locate a reason for this sell down of the moment yet?

  70. 70
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Philly Fed disappointed
    China tightening
    Earnings expectations were too high (this one is subjective, of course… eBay flying)

  71. 71
    VTZ Says:

    China tightening is funny because they are basically saying that they would prefer a bubble instead of sustainable growth.

  72. 72
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    talking to other fund mngrs, they universally felt that worry about anti-Wall Street rhetoric is keeping people on the sidelines yesterday and today. But overall, PMs still optimistic about the stock market.

    Just not today. Today has been relegated to the dust bin. Feel like turning off the screens and curling up with a stack of research to read.

  73. 73
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VTZ — #71 totally agree. China tightening is actually a good thing. But, mrkt wants to sell off today… so, PMs looking around for any reason why.

  74. 74
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Andy — you around today? How was IPAA?? Was Schiller doing the Happy Dance during his presentation? Sure sounded that way…

  75. 75
    VTZ Says:

    Anti-wall street rhetoric should be a positive for the markets. Maybe then more money would go to shareholders (like Goldman). It would goose the financial sector and isn’t that the point of all this stimulus? Not to goose the personal savings of their employees?

    Maybe they should be forced to buy back all their toxic assets they sold off before they buy themselves new cars?

  76. 76
    bill Says:

    the only glut left for ng is in the west

    producing is 6 % lower

    It was amazing how fast that went down with 2 weeks of cold weather

  77. 77
    VTZ Says:

    They seem to think the assets on their balance sheets are good anyways based on where they are marked so maybe they should be paid bonuses in mortgage backed securities… I’m full of great ideas today.

  78. 78
    andy Says:

    bop – am around, but busy. will e-mail u and z a report of my observations hopefully tonite. if anybody else wants, let me know. Schiller seemed quite happy.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Crude holding down a dollar.

    Crude stocks now 1% below year ago levels, still 6% above the 5 year average.

  80. 80
    bill Says:

    >Anti-wall street rhetoric should be a positive

    i disagree, i think its just the opposite

    The blame goes to washington and people that borrowed imho

    Who is wall street anyways?

  81. 81
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Why is anti wall street rhetoric driving down the market NOW? So all of a sudden Mr Market says I don’t like this bashing of the market? This bashing has been going own all during this upturn. I think fund managers feel they always have to say something in order to look intelligent, even if it is stupid.

  82. 82
    elijahwc Says:

    #69,70: POTUS. We need a new one. The redirection trade in Washington is to shift attention from healthcare to the new war on Wall Street. And, the machines are perfectly willing to front run the trade. Remember what was happening last Jan/Feb when his retoric was carpet bombing capitalism? Sorry for the rant.

    Anybody see this op-ed from Mort Zuckerman?

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-01-19/hes-done-everything-wrong/

  83. 83
    VTZ Says:

    bill – If the banks wanted to get paid back on their loans then the blame goes to the people who lent the money. You reap what you sow.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Bill – yep, I have 5 cases out of the last decade’s weather (using historical withdrawal trends from current levels) that put gas storage below the five year average, several of them well below it. A month ago there was only 1 case.

    If you get a repeat of either the 2001/2002 or 06/07 withdrawal seasons from this point on gas storage troughs at 1 Tcf (1,000 Bcf). A good level would be 1.5 Tcf for end of the withdrawal season storage.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Conan gets something like $32 mm to quit and $20 mm for his staff. I just never want to hear him call anyone on Wall Street a Fat Cat again.

  86. 86
    milepost_43 Says:

    Crossing FNC…
    Pelosi says
    “votes not there to pass Senate HC Bill”…

  87. 87
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    It looks like a mixed bag when it comes to energy stocks. Some like RRC and SWN are taking it on the chin, where others like XCO or CHK are doing OK.

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Was reading the political stuff last night, struck by the number of Democrats sending the message to the President that Jobs should be top priority now. Sounds like a big fat jobs bill, how is this good for the dollar again?

  89. 89
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:85 — back in the 70’s the media use to bash the oil companies for excess profits. However back then the newspaper, and TV stations where the ones that where making excess profits (media companies ROI, ROA, free cash flow, etc.. made oil companies cry) Someone from a big oil tried to point this fact out to the media, but like alot of things, it went right over their head.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    CNBC saying President’s bank regulaion speech (about to start) is reason for the selloff.

    re 81. Agreed re saying their is a cause, same thing for reporters.

    re 87. SWN has not been acting well for days, gas could turn that shortly as cold weather reenters the picture. Not overly expensive.

    Otherwise, the moves are pretty smallish, market considered.

    HK down 7 cents, NFX up or down depending on when you look, BBG up on a good forecast this morning.

    NG up 13 cents now, back to its best levels post the storage report.

    Bill – I think starting from a lower trough point on storage vs the typical higher low, higher high we have seen for the past several years will have a strongly supportive impact on the gas prices this year.

  91. 91
    VTZ Says:

    Bashing profits and bashing compensation are two completely seperate issues.

  92. 92
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    RE:88 JOBS SHOULD HAVE been ALWAYS, the top priority, esp with 10%+ unemployment. NOT some left wing, stalinist, social agendia.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    You’re singing to the choir … comrade.

  94. 94
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    You know… they tried a lot of this same stuff in 1931 too. Sealed the direction of the Great Depression.

    But, why be bothered with history? sheesh.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    BOP – Care to check with HT from the post speech on? Market doing a little shrugging off act now. I’m seeing energy stocks pick up and react to gas of a sudden.

    MMR – backed back into its pre extra pay at Davy Jones?

    EXXI down 7.5%, has to make one think.

  96. 96
    1520sbroad Says:

    Are we back to trying to play the market around when Mr. Obama appears on TV?

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    BOP – I’m speechless, pretty broad stroke stuff, not a lot of details, and probably due for the mother of all filibusters so I won’t belabor the President’s predilection to fight with (his words) some of the more non-unionized sectors of the American economy.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Hear ya 1520, that was soooo 2009.

  99. 99
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    “President Obama says that if the financial ‘folks’ want a fight, it’s a fight he’s ready to have.”….

    HT’s comment… “seriously?????”

  100. 100
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    I feel like I’m listening to the President of Venezuela… not the POTUS.

  101. 101
    1520sbroad Says:

    98 – my thoughts exactly.

  102. 102
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    Every speech Obama makes is a campaign speech. Does the guy know that he was elected Pres?

  103. 103
    1520sbroad Says:

    BOP – is the front half of 99 a direct quote?

  104. 104
    RMD Says:

    Fly-by report from DFW: on a plane with a seismic guy going from AR to ND. Said last several shoots for CHK, SWN showed oil under the gas pockets; heard they are planning an oil pipeline along with the new gas pipelines. (Vibration seisimc mentioned as much more sensitive than explosives.)

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    RMD – you’re talking about the Fayetteville? That would be large news.

  106. 106
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #103 yes

  107. 107
    1520sbroad Says:

    #106 – oh.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    Eli – can you email me RMD’s cell number, can’t find it? Send to zmanalpha@gmail.com. Thanks.

  109. 109
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Z,

    What’s better, 10% unemployment, companies running leaner and meaner, or 5% unemployment, companies running fatter and more people buying more stuff?

  110. 110
    VTZ Says:

    Why is Obama focused on that fight instead of fighting unemployment and the not-so-improving real economy.

  111. 111
    TEXWS6 Says:

    I think we always knew there is oil where there is shale gas. The question is, can you get it out, and how small are your pores?

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    TEX – depends, are they driving to work or telecommuiting, ordering off Amazon or shopping themselves.

    TEX – 111 – exactly, oil as the source for the gas. If you have the porosity, and you are sitting on several hundred thousand acres all HBP, well now, that gets me interested. Plus you are shallow here, not much over 5,000 feet for most of it, unlike the Haynesville or the Bakken. I would have to say for both CHK and SWN and PQ and XTO and others to a lessor extent, finding oil there now would be awfully good timing.

  113. 113
    VTZ Says:

    Gold bounced off important support at 1090 again and dollar losing all it’s gains and some.

  114. 114
    bloodystupidjohnson Says:

    TEX: it depends, are you the one with the job or without — lol

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    VTZ – dollar really needed to break out today.

    BSJ – And I was just looking at the question from a gasoline and diesel demand standpoint.

  116. 116
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    MIDDAY OVERVIEW
    Market Update – stocks suffering their first back-to-back decline since early Dec; sp on pace for its steepest decline since late Oct. YTD the sp is back to flattish (1115 is flat on the year) and we are threatening the 50day MA (50day is 1114.6). Stocks were for sale since the open but really weakened as Obama made his speech (@ 11:45amET). Adding to the worry is huge amounts of confusion – there doesn’t seem to be any published fact sheet detailing precisely what the new rules will be, when they will be implemented, etc. Also out of Washington today – the Bernanke vote has been pushed out again (it was supposed to happen Fri although now won’t take place until next week); note that if he isn’t confirmed before 1/31 he will have to step down until a vote takes place. The eco #s today aren’t helping (Philly Fed and jobless). On the earnings front, there were actually more positives than negatives out last night/this morning – banks are posting credit metrics in aggregate that are much better than people feared (inc. CMA, FITB, KEY, and others, this morning). In tech, EBAY, STX, XLNX, DOX, and more, are all trading very well post their #s. SBUX is up 2% post earnings. Color from the desk – the dip buyers are absent again (for the second day) and this lack of buyers is exacerbating the move lower. Seeing some vanilla selling (esp. in financials and esp. in the larger money center banks that could be most impacted by today’s WH announcement); shorts aren’t pressing things too aggressively (w/exception of certain situation in financials). SP (cash) trying hard to defend the 1115 level (which is ’10 starting point and also the 50day).
    Equity Sectors – weakness across the board today. Financials off 2.5% and getting all the attention today but materials are dwn 3% too. Financials getting hit mostly due to the WH announcement (financials are still the market’s best acting group on a YTD basis, up ~4.7%). Very mixed action in bank land – regionals are pretty strong on back of earnings while the large money centers/IBs come for sale aggressively due to regulatory worries. Materials off 3% – AKS, X, CLF, FCX are all off 6%+ (FCX had earnings this morning and there were some worries on the cost front; headlines out of Australia about new mining taxes won’t impact the US guys but is hurting sentiment; the dollar has been strong, although turned lower as of noon). Telecoms, utilities, energy, staples, discretionary, tech all off 1%. Tech and industrials off ~1.8% each.
    Commodities: Commodities are down sharply today as China tightening fears spur a selloff, although natural gas jumped over 10c to $5.60 after a positive storage report. Oil is off over $1, nearing $76.50 after the DOE reported a greater than expected build in gasoline stocks. Gold is down $15, but slightly off its lows, to $1,098. Copper is off just under 1.50% as well today.
    FX: USD (DXY) is trading at its lows of the day, down 0.1%, after being up all morning. The dollar is flattish against the Euro and Pound and off about a pct against the Yen. The Euro is also off about 0.9% against the Yen.
    Corp Credit: Corp credit is down with the tape today as IG spreads widen 3 bps and HY falls 7/8 of a pt.
    Treasuries: Treasuries rallied across the board today as investors look to reduce equity holdings. 2s are now yielding 85 bps and 10s rallied to yield 3.62 pct. The 2-10 year spread is mostly unchanged today as it sits at 277 bps.

  117. 117
    TEXWS6 Says:

    I have a job as long as we keep having these huge withdrawals, man, I was sweating this one, it’s warm here in Dallas, I know that we don’t consume alot of gas, but still worried.

  118. 118
    AAA Says:

    Is today the opportunity to go back and load up on EXXI and MMR?

  119. 119
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    AAA — that is a Jerome question.

    Fundamentally, EXXI is in a great place. Lots of ways for the stock to go up. Only 2 ways for it to go down — 1) oil prices fall, and/or 2) the well at DJ gets screwed up. #2 would only be a temporary (albeit expensive) setback, as they already know they have a discovery there.

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    AAA – I think they are trading technically, I think the potential reserves, which were bolstered yesterday and could see additional pay registered at Davy Jones over the next 4 weeks or so would argue that they are not expensive.

    TEX – re 117. I hear ya. Want a jobs program idea? Accelerate CNG transportation from D.C. We need filling stations, new cars, trucks, buses built, and more wells drilled. So maybe you unemploy a few LOOP workers because oil imports tail off, so what. I’m all for “getting off foreign oil” and we have that ability in the U.S., if we will just go after it. Between expanded Bakken on oil and expanded natural gas from upteen large shale plays it can be done. Oh yeah, and emissions would be lower as well.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    BOP – re 119, great minds … lol.

  122. 122
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    FWIW, the last chunk of EXXI i bought, was around here. And that was before they announced another 65 ft of net pay in DJ.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    BEXP – safe bet there is another well in the very near future for them to announce.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Ram – did you catch the MVO quick look in today’s piece?

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Close will be interesting today. Tomorrow there is no eco data so could be pretty volatile into the weekend.

  126. 126
    bill Says:

    82 i agree

    I think a good portion of the market meltdown in sept 2008 was caused by the market discounting the winner of the 2008 election

  127. 127
    cargocult Says:

    I am continually impressed by the quality of insight and depth of knowledge on this site when it comes to the subject of oil and gas exploration.

  128. 128
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    hmmm — there went all the 2010 gains on the SPX.

  129. 129
    bill Says:

    93 lol

  130. 130
    zman Says:

    Cargo – Thanks much and I hear ya.

    Bastardi still calling for cold in Feb.

    Oil down $1.50, I’d put all off that move on the equity market action today.

    NG up a dime. No doubt higher without the equity market action today.

    Glad there are 4 more weeks in the life of my Feb calls.

  131. 131
    bill Says:

    This selloff is good news if you have some cash laying around. I want more exxi and im going to jump on it at some point.

  132. 132
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    What i missed from the MA election results — POTUS would turn his attention away from healthcare and start systematically smashing the financial system on the head. Sort of like pulling out a gun and shooting at your own body parts.

    You may hate the banks (or oil companies, or insurance companies, or drug companies)… but we all need them. This populist sh*t isn’t helping anyone.

  133. 133
    cargocult Says:

    When sellers throw out the baby and the bathwater it is a good opportunity to acquire a baby.

  134. 134
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    cargo — well said!

  135. 135
    bill Says:

    someone drew a line in the sand re mcf at 52.

    They will release earnings on 2/8/10 which will be better than (expected ie ibes numbers)and more updates on cotton valley and gom new drilling ventures.

    At 5.50 ng, they are pulling in 480 k per day, roughly 29 cent per share per day, 10.50 annualy per share or 5 times cash flow

  136. 136
    bill Says:

    132, i find the whole term populist amusing.

    Even if it popular to bash business , therin lies the problem

    We need a transformation of thought. Business are good not only for little people but for the us govt.

    If business make money, they hire people, they pay taxes to govt at 40 cent on the dollar .

    govt should support us business not be an adversary.

    Where is our ship building business?
    Everything is going overseas, We need to compete and win or we are all losers

  137. 137
    elijahwc Says:

    “RMD’s cell number” One of RMD’s small private perks is that he doesn’t have one. The alternate route a.k.a. his brides is in your email box. Hee Hee

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    GS appears to be back in support. Maybe they should have reported a big miss, lol. People going into the weekend are afraid to own the name as the government may be breaking their business model. I’m sure we get more details (which will then be radically changed) in coming days on this financial reform.

  139. 139
    jat Says:

    Re 133, I’m adopting a whole family today.

  140. 140
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — what are their cute little names?

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    Eli – No wonder I can’t find it. Re Wife’s cell: Oh no, not going there, thanks. Will email him with tonight.

  142. 142
    elduque Says:

    I don’t really object to the banks investing anyway they want to. The S and L crisis in the early 90’s which is just a small crisis compared to the latest was caused by being able to borrow money with the federal guarantee. This hasn’t changed!!! If the banks want to invest funds let them go out and borrow them like everybody else, without a federal guarantee.

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    SGU (an MLP) just boosted their quarterly distribution… it’s been a good year to be a heating oil distributor, not surprisingly.

  144. 144
    zman Says:

    Re Fayetteville, other feedback: am hearing people are seeing associated oil in the wells no, sounds like the deeper ones in the southern parts of the play, no feedback yet on deeper oil on seismic.

  145. 145
    Wyoming Says:

    http://screencast.com/t/ZTY1NWMyND

    http://screencast.com/t/YzM2ZWIxM

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    I do have a recommendation for bank investors, try E&P, the cross hairs are focused elsewhere for now and there is the possibility that a whole new source of domestic demand crops up in the next couple of years.

    Gas demanded for transportation in the U.S. in the last available month (October 2009): 2.7 Bcf. Not per day, that’s the month’s total vehicular consumption of natural gas. A decade ago, the U.S. was consuming 1.0 Bcf per month.

    Putting that in perspective of the total, this means cars, trucks, buses consumed 0.16% of total U.S. consumption in October. If we are the Saudi Arabia of gas, and I think we are, that just makes no sense.

  147. 147
    skimo Says:

    wyoming-that 2nd 1 was even funnier because its true. lolol

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    Wyoming – any thoughts on HP rigs as it pertains to availability of the higher end, higher horsepower fleet relative to NBR? With rig counts popping up again, I feel the need to add a little more service exposure and am noting that the brokerages seem to be pushing HP above all other drillers. Any other bit, mud, sand, OCTG comments you have are more than welcome.

  149. 149
    Wyoming Says:

    Skimo, I actually like to go to gun shows (hobby) and saw them all over the place. There are some funnier ones but I think those pushes far enough. Could not resist on a day like today.

    Z,

    IMHO, and I am not that good in the stock side, they both are level. If the street is pushing one over the other than that’s your Huckleberry. Kind of like HAL and SLB, SLB is the fair haired beauty. Why fight the tape?

    Both are international too, believe much better rates and I see HP is spread out but memory recalls NBR is in the Kingdom pretty strong.

  150. 150
    Wyoming Says:

    … believe me …. much better rates (first hand)

  151. 151
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Hoping to see EXXI take another run at 3.31 again. This time, i’m loaded for bear.

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    Wyo – thanks. Re 151, I think that is exactly what the conference calls will be about. E&Ps can’t keep talking about 40% reductions in costs from beginning of last year due to BOTH rates and efficiency. Efficiency? Reduced drill times? Sure. But rate, nope, they are going to want to talk about the higher commodity prices making it their time to shine. My guess of what Andrew will say on SLB call tomorrow (only he will be more subtle about it), then louder on the HAL call next week.

  153. 153
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Wyoming — during his presentation the other day, Lynn (KOG) mentioned that equipment in the Williston was getting tighter. You seeing that?

  154. 154
    jat Says:

    With regard to my family, I really can’t disagree with 149,150, and 152, even though I have noticed more parents lining up at the adoption house as of late.

    I really enjoy this metaphor, if no one could tell.

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    Off topic tech watch. Looking for suggestions on a terabyte of network attached storage. Thanks.

  156. 156
    TEXWS6 Says:

    Re #120:

    My company has 2 CNG vehicles that are free to the employees to drive. Problem is, there are no CNG stations, you have to go to an airport to fill up.

    Anyone want to go in and build CNG re-fill stations in the DFW area? Where’s CLNE at when yo need them?!?!

  157. 157
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jat — you crack me up.

  158. 158
    Wyoming Says:

    On HAL – I hear they are pushing price increases on existing contracts. They probably are not the only ones.

    I was close to a rant the other day but I guess while we are on the subject of rigs. If you are looking at fundamentals, then get out of NBR and HP. Think Chinese eq/services/etc and think about the US comments about China sucking up all the reserves. If the Chinese can back door the Cosmo / Exxon deal what do you think they are doing about the rig/service side with the NOC’s? http://tinyurl.com/ya6cu4h

  159. 159
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    haven’t talked much about the credit markets lately (not much to talk about… they were doing pretty well). But the Obama Bash-A-Rama is slapping corporate credit rates upside the head too. It’s an equal opportunity bashing… we are all getting hurt here.

  160. 160
    bill Says:

    gst

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GST

    whats it cost for a vertical well

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    Tex – there is the chicken/egg thing for sure but it wouldn’t be a huge deal for XOM to add a pump at a few of their stations in the big towns. I was actually thinking this would be a good govt jobs program and that various municipalities could centrally locate a fleet fueling station that would also be open to the public. I mean, if your going to throw $ into stimulus, do something worth doing.

  162. 162
    Wyoming Says:

    BOP,

    Sorry, we are not up there and I have not been domestic since September. Matter of fact I am down 5 Beck’s and ready to go to bed.

    That said, I get copied of rig counts in some of our fields and they are still down. It may be a function of operators not wanting to pay the Mobe to get more rigs in the area. Everything is a function of money or time and they are inverse.

  163. 163
    Jerome Blank Says:

    EXXI 30 min intraday chart and comments…I hope you can see the intraday chart, it appears to be in the list…I think it knocked out my daily chart of EXXI…

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3724280

  164. 164
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Thank Wyoming… Beck’s… you in Germany?

  165. 165
    bill Says:

    heres Barney…

    Always fun for a laugh

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    Dude – don’t answer on the grounds that it might tend to identify who you work for, lol.

  167. 167
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — so, looks like $3.51 has gotta hold here… and we had better get back to $3.60 to feel safer about EXXI?

  168. 168
    Wyoming Says:

    Bill,

    Depends on area, operator, negotiations, geology and design. Marcellus is tough as they will have location issues (used to work in Kentucky a bit). I would imagine a beer napkin would come up with $750 low to $2mm high.

    I saw a summary if a shale play and the dailies for comparable wells ranged from 7mm to 10mm and completed exactly the same. Lots of weird $ tracking.

  169. 169
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    sheesh — sorry. Didn’t mean to try to Valerie Plame you, Wyoming!

  170. 170
    zman Says:

    Interestig: Frank saying he would support the changes with a long term time frame. So moderation of The Plan is already in the works. Market immediately lifting.

  171. 171
    Wyoming Says:

    Nein, but a close time zone, different continent.

  172. 172
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Well, best wishes and hearty thanks to you, wherever you are. regards!

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    And over in the Bakken, a lot wells that cost $10mm a year ago are now $6 with a longer lateral, say 30% longer, and nearly double the number of frac stages. Days to drill cut in half explains part of it, pricing the other part. Gotta figure that kind of cost reduction is done for awhile, maybe squeeze a bit more out but if rigs and parts demand increases, maybe not.

  174. 174
    Wyoming Says:

    Z,

    Japanese say that criminals want to be caught and I am feeling a little blabby tonight.

  175. 175
    zman Says:

    174 = LOL

  176. 176
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Barney Frank just said on cnbc that it could be 3-5 years before new bank regulations are phased in.

    HeadTrader says “can u say DOA?”

  177. 177
    zman Says:

    Absolutely DOA. All eyes in Congress on November 2010. Stocks started lifting the second I sat down and typed the Frank comment above. Big question. What’s the next big target. I think Cap and Trade is DOA as well.

  178. 178
    zman Says:

    Big rally in the gassy names off the lows underway.

    Wondering what the record for being a lame duck is.

  179. 179
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #167…BOP…thinking there is a lot of airspace underneath that lower support level at about $3.35…if we can get back above $3.60, that breaks the descending triangle which printed out on the 30 min intraday…by the way, I also missed buying that first test this morning…

  180. 180
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    That $3.31 print caught me flat-footed. Needed to free up some cash to be there next time EXXI tried to swan dive on me. Thanks, Jerome.

  181. 181
    Wyoming Says:

    And now for something totally different:

    http://tinyurl.com/yhfwf77

    Thought Robert Kennedy Junior said that off shore wind farms disrupted fish.

    And now for something totally different:

    http://tinyurl.com/yzy5k2f

    Only in Alaska, funny story is funnier if you have lived there.

  182. 182
    zman Says:

    Wyoming – you’d never get spit at a Taco Cabana or an El Auroyo. I guess you get what you pay for.

    EOG only large cap E&P up others not getting flogged.

    Midcaps a mixed bag with PXP actually outperforming.

  183. 183
    Nicky Says:

    Afternoon all.

    Market held 1113 support. Its possible we are now in a wave iv correction back to the 1126 before v down to 1100 – 1110 with support at 1107.

    As usual I have about 3 possible counts. Due to cycles I don’t think the upside is done but we may see a big sideways ABC correction and we are currently in A down (in iv with v to come as stated above).

    The more bullish count says we are completing a 3 wave move off the top and now head up to new highs. Either way I think a bounce is due soon.

  184. 184
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: T Boone on Cramer last night. Expecting the new energy legislation to be done by Memorial Day. Talking his book as we all do. Added to CHK – DVN. Net worth had gone from 4B to 1.5B. Yikes

  185. 185
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky.

  186. 186
    Nicky Says:

    Oil has so far held the 61.8% retracement of the December to January rally at 75.85.

  187. 187
    Nicky Says:

    Anyone else feel like crude may be about due for at least a short covering rally.

  188. 188
    zman Says:

    Nicky – A few things support that: 1) refiners unlikely to stay this low on throughput for long at all. 2) fog in the ship channel for 3 days, and probably a fourth should/could argue for a draw on crude stocks next week. 3) we should get another week of big declines (high demand) in distillates next week.

  189. 189
    skimo Says:

    When is EXXI going to flatten out today?

  190. 190
    jiveyjr Says:

    my contribution to the pol stuff, that I ordinarily hate so:

    http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/republicans-have-taken-massachusetts.html

  191. 191
    zman Says:

    Back in 30 min.

  192. 192
    jiveyjr Says:

    #190 for BOP/Bill…think you’ll find it funny if you haven’t seen it

  193. 193
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    jivey — whoof… that was some dark stuff! I pictured a certain Hedge Fund manager and his staff playing out that scenario.

  194. 194
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    The Elmer Fudd Rally has exhausted itself. Market back to wondering who the POTUS will play Pin-the-Tail on next.

  195. 195
    skimo Says:

    Jiveyjr,you clearly remember the Nazis were socialists and y’all have hit the nail on the head with this! LOL

  196. 196
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    skimo — worse that socialists… fascists. Like, if Nancy Pelosi had her own police force… just to be historically accurate.

  197. 197
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HeadTrader pointing out that the broad market is ignoring EPS right now… we are right on the bottom of his channel/support. He is not yet willing to make a call on tomorrow’s market.

  198. 198
    Wyoming Says:

    http://www.wimp.com/thegovernment/

  199. 199
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    It is encouraging that eBay held onto its gains today (on good earnings). And that PXP is still in the green. Don’t think this is the start of a new down market. Just choppy trading conditions.

    That is what we expect most of 2010 to be… choppy.

  200. 200
    Jason Says:

    FSLR also pretty much flat today….interesting

  201. 201
    zman Says:

    My sense is any real buyers are going to want to wait out the rest of earnings tonight and any overnight headlines before coming into the market.

  202. 202
    jiveyjr Says:

    Wyoming…thx for 198

  203. 203
    skimo Says:

    exxi @3.49

  204. 204
    Jerome Blank Says:

    AEZ had a really nice comeback rally near that support zone today…

  205. 205
    bill Says:

    enrgy names allcaught up in todays news, when the dust settles we will hear more on this

    http://www.wsi.com/corporate%5Cnews%5Creleases%5Cuseg122209_ecoutlook.asp

  206. 206
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill.

    Beeeeerrrthirty. Sheeesh.

  207. 207
    zman Says:

    GOOG coming off hard AH

  208. 208
    choices Says:

    goog getting hammered a/h-now down -27.

  209. 209
    jiveyjr Says:

    indeed…sentiment, at least to me suggested it wouldn’t take much to scare people since most were all in…that’s what’s good about this service…we know what we got thanks to Z and many, many other contributors

  210. 210
    jiveyjr Says:

    I’m not as easily scared when I know more than what a chart looks like

  211. 211
    RobBanks Says:

    Z- a few thoughts on MVO.
    Production is 98% oil, not sure where the 83% number came from.

    MVO, post 2010 (when hedges come off permanently) is really a race between declining production and (hopefully) rising oil prices. While they can slow the decline with capex, a steady decline is inevitable. I have programmed in a 4.5% decline per year in my spreadsheet.

    MVO came public with each unit representing one barrel of oil (11.5mm units). Now there is about .8 barrels/unit left.

    MVO is essentially a get-paid-while-you-wait for oil prices to go up, but it is definitely sand running through an hourglass where, longer term, one has to keep an eye on the residual value of the trust. MVO (like WHX) will not go on ’til the oil runs out – it is set amount that they will sell, then they are done. And it is very thinly traded; there’s no get-out-now button for a large position.

  212. 212
    bill Says:

    gst up about 15 % today

  213. 213
    zman Says:

    re 211:

    83% is crude, then you have natural gas liquids, and natural gas making up the balance.

    I haven’t bought it yet, just sniffing for now. I need to do more homework on WHX. My yield money is entirely in LINE for now.

  214. 214
    zman Says:

    Nope, you are right, I put the barrels of the 80% interest vs the 100% interest, so it is 98% oily. One of the things I do is look, and then wait, and then look again awhile later, especially names and areas in which I do not often trade or have not covered in the past. That generally keeps me out of trouble.

  215. 215
    RobBanks Says:

    Just to be clear, I own and like MVO, but it is unlike anything else. Closest thing is WHX, but that is 45% NG last I checked.

  216. 216
    zman Says:

    AXP trading off after numbers.

  217. 217
    zman Says:

    Next week:

    http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=5

  218. 218
    milepost_43 Says:

    FINALLY…been waiting to hear this position out in press..couldn’t believe the WY/MT politicians would let XL go thru without an “on ramp”…IF it comes true should be GOOD for diffs in the area…

    Governor wants TransCanada oil pipeline to include “on ramp” for Montana fuel (MT-Keystone-Pipeline-)

    BILLINGS, Mon. _ Gov. Brian Schweitzer wants Montana oil producers to be able to tap into TransCanada´s proposed US$5-billion pipeline that would run from Alberta to the Gulf Coast.

    The 3,200-kilometre Keystone XL pipeline would include a 450-kilometre section through eastern Montana, where most of the state´s oil is produced.

    Schweitzer asked the state´s public service commission on Wednesday to investigate whether Calgary-based TransCanada (TSX:TCA.PR.X) can be forced to build an “on-ramp” for Montana oil near Baker.

    That could help oil companies in the state get better prices for their product, which is now often sold at discounted prices because of shipping constraints.

    Commission Chairman Greg Jergeson says an agency attorney is looking into the issue and that an answer could come within the next two weeks.

  219. 219
    zman Says:

    Milepost – and from there it would be easy enough to send a lateral west towards the cutbank area in nw Mt to connect any Bakken discoveries (ROSE, NFX).

  220. 220
    West Says:

    That post I did early wasn’t to clear. Here is a recap for Cimarex’s XEC Two Sisters well in Jefferson Co., TX. These seem to be pretty fantastic wells to me. Average daily production after 5 months thru November for the 1 well 27 MMCFPD and 2600 barrels of condensate per day. In the first 5 months the well has cum’d 4 BCF and 384,000 barrrels of condensate. They now have 4 other Yegua wells on production in this area and 1 additional well waiting on completion. As far as I can find these are vertical wells . From yesterday’s presentation, the average first 30 day IP for the first four wells is 28 MMCFPD and 2100 BPD. 3D seismic driven play with 67% success ratio over the years and smaller features than shale plays…http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=136094&p=irol-presentations

  221. 221
    Chattercams Says:

    chattercams

    Zman

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