06
Jan

Wednesday – Oil Preview + BEXP, PQ, Coal Thoughts …

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Market Sentiment Watch: Good morning. Still liking 2010 after a whopping two days of trading. The rest of the year's sessions will undoubtedly not be as good but a 50% gain on a $20,000 portfolio over two days has to make one smile. Or be more cautious. I'm going with the latter. I spent yesterday raising my cash position and while I'm back over 50% cash I'd also note that I'm only slightly more weighted in January calls at this point than the longer dated options.  I plan to beat more of a retreat from the Jan calls as the week progresses.  After the close yesterday, BEXP announced their best well yet in the Bakken. This well was next up on the Catalyst List and was everything I was looking for if not more in terms of an initial rate (see details in the Stuff section below).  Lastly, Pritchard is holding an energy conference today through Friday and I'll be on a number of presentations today including BEXP (see Stuff section for the full roster).

Eco Data Watch:

  • ADP employment came in at -84K. Economists are looking for a positive number from this Friday's payrolls data and ADP has been running about 100K short of the government data,
  • ISM non-manufacturing (forecast 51%) will be released at 10 am EST.
  • FOMC minutes this afternoon. Look for lots of stay the low rate course talk.

Other Errata Watch:

  • Interior Czar Salazar to announce changes to the U.S. onshore leasing system at a press conference at 12:30 EST. Look for lease durations to be cut short.

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BEXP Bakken well, Coal Thoughts 2010, Pritchard energy conference, PQ operations update.
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:

    • $31,000
    • 54% Cash
    • The quick view holdings are updated on the Holding Tab.

 

  • Yesterday's Trades:
    • Added (10) January $15 calls (QBJAC) for $0.30 with the stock at $14.20, pulling back on a downgrade. The company presents at the Pritchard Energize Conference tomorrow and I would not be surprised to see an operations update out of them either tomorrow or next week.
    • IOC - Sold my (2) January $70 calls (IOCAN) for $14, up 135%. Will reposition soon.
    • NOG - Sold (40) NOG $12.50 January calls for $0.50 (on the mid), up 91%, with the stock at $12.67. I continue to own the Feb $10s and plan to add to that position soon.
    • SWN - Sold (20) SWN $50 January calls (TKQAJ) for $2.40, up 55%, with the stock at 51.75. I continue to hold the January and February $55 calls here and the common.
    • BEXP - Bit of a WildZ (higher risk) given the amount of time to expiry. Added another (20) BEXP January $15 calls for $0.30 with the stock at $14.20. This brings me to (50) of these with an average cost of about $0.41.


Commodity Watch:

Crude oil inched up $0.26 to close at $81.77 yesterday. After the close, the API released another oddball looking report. I'm not sure anyone cares what they report anymore.  This morning crude is trading off a dime.

Natural gas dropped 4% (the day after climbing 5+%) to close the day at $5.64. Felt like profit taking in advance of this week's storage number that slowly got out of hand. This morning gas is trading up 14 cents.

  • Early Read On Natural Gas Storage: The Street is looking for a 153 Bcf withdrawal.

    • Last Week: 124 Bcf withdrawal
    • Last Year: 67 Bcf withdrawal
    • 5 Year Average: 75 Bcf withdrawal
    • 5 year Hi: 20 Bcf withdrawal
    • 5 year Low: 171 Bcf withdrawal

Oil Inventory Preview


API Watch: Nonsensical.

  • Crude - DOWN 2.3 mm barrels. Despite a big surge in imports, much bigger than a small rally in refinery throughput.
  • Gasoline - UP 5.5 mm barrels. Not surprising it would be up but the size seems a bit out of hand.
  • Distillates - UP 0.96 mm barrels. A bit surprising.  I am thinking the Street is closer to correct in what the EIA will report today.


Stuff We Care About Today

BEXP Announces Its Biggest IP Yet In The Bakken

  • The State 36-1 #1H tested 3,807 BOEpd (3,236 bopd, 3.42 MMcfgpd)
  • What's important about this well?

    • It's the furthest east well in their Rough Rider area drilled by BEXP to date so it helps to derisk some of that acreage which has been relatively untested until now.
    • It is another of BEXP's long lateral, high frac stage count (30 in this case) wells to come in above industry IP rates
    • This is their strongest well to date and they have now drilled all about their 104,000 Rough Rider area acres.
    • Other operators in the play with average IPs in the 2,000 BOEpd range have put per well reserves in the 750 to 1 mm barrel recoverable range.
    • While a record for BEXP, this well is still nearly 1,000 BOEpd short of the Bakken record holder, WLL's Maki well located in the Sanish field, in the Core of the play.
    • Also of note, BEXP is releasing 7 and 30 day average rates in their latest presentation. These rates look pretty much as you' expect ... look for pretty quick payouts here on the order of 18 months.
    • These BEXP notes will be archived on the Reports page.
    • The progression of their recent wells is obviously nice to see:

  • What's Next For The BEXP Bakken Effort?

    • One more Central Rough Rider well within a week or two. This should not be as risky as the last well as it's in close proximity to some previously drilled wells.
    • One more Rough Rider and one Ross area well by late January.
  • What Else?

    • NFX has yet to disclose results from its Chanel 1-33 Well which is just south of being in between this well and the Williston 25-36 well. So not quite straddled by two big wells, we could hear something from NFX as soon as mid January or as late as their 4Q09 conference call.

PQ Operations Update:

  • Woodford Share

    • 4 Woodford wells completed - Initial Production rates ranging from 5.6 to 7.9 MMcfepd, which is solid.
    • They are completing their 33rd well in the play now and the last 15 have seen average IPs of 6.0 MMcfepd; these should be highly economic wells at current gas prices for the slightly over $4 mm well cost.
    • Woodford production now 30 MMcfepd, about a third of total company production at present.

  • Production Below Guidance:

    • 4Q Guidance Coming Down. Now quoting a range of 81 to 83 MMcfepd vs prior guidance of 83 to 88 MMcfepd

      • Pelican Point (Gulf Coast) production offline temporarily due to pipeline issues
      • Shut ins for Hurricane Ida
    • Current production is back up to 90 MMcfepd
    • Still going to make their 2009 production range
    • Not yet talking 2010 volumes.
  • Financial:

    • 2009 Capex came in at $60 mm, slightly low to the last estimate of $65 to $75m; deferred some projects and spent less in the Fayetteville Shale which comes as a surprise.
    • Paid down debt in lieu of that spending
    • $20 mm of bank debt repaid in quarter
    • Revolver now with $29 mm drawn on $100 mm allowable.
    • $20 mm in cash at end of quarter
    • At quarter end they had fixed debt of $149 mm and bank debt of $100 mm; so total debt has fallen from $249 mm to $178 mm since 9/30/09.
  • Nutshell:

    • Stock may get taken down a bit today on knee jerk reaction to the production guidance miss. Depending on how much it falls I may play.
    • Along with the cash on the balance sheet, the debt reduction puts their Total Enterprise Value at $577 mm for a TEV / EBITDA of 4.4x which is fairly inexpensive.
    • This section will be added to the Reports tab.

 

The Pritchard Energize 2010 Conference (Wed - Fri)

  • Full schedule here
  • Ones I'll be tuning into today: (all times EST, note that these start later in the day as this is a left coast conference)
    • BEXP -  11:55
    • BPZ  - 12:20 - refreshing myself on this oily little name
    • SWN - 12:45 - Not expecting much new but will listen all the same
    • GST - 1:10
    • PQ - 1:35
    • SFY - 2:25 - Want to hear their Eagle Ford Plans
    • Crimson (CXPO) - 2:50 the recent IPO, very interested to hear these guys speak.
  • I'll wing the afternoon part of the schedule.

Coal Thoughts for 2010

  • Generation can't get a lot worse than it was in 2009. Ok, it can but it is unlikely. Generation in 2009 was off just under 4% due to the economy and a mild summer. Moreover, with low gas prices last summer, gas was able to steal market share from more expensive coal. That price relationship is reversing out for all but the most inefficient coal plants.
  • U.S. coal inventories are likely to remain high through year end
  • U.S. coal production has been steeply curtailed due to the economy driving lower demand
  • Prices for thermal coal are not much off their lows but they appear to have stopped falling and higher natural gas prices will likely be supportive of higher coal prices.
  • Eastern coal prices hit $135 per ton in July of 2008 and are now at $48, near their 2009 lows, trading in what I often refer to as a scoop chart.
  • Similarly, the low BTU, but lower polluting Powder River Basin coals of Wyoming are trading in a range between $8 and $9 per ton, having peaked in Summer 2008 close to $22 per ton.
  • Coal export markets remain strong, especially China.
  • Met coal demand continues unabated with domestic producers repeatedly commenting they are selling every ton they can get out of the ground.
  • I'm only long a small (ANR) position at present via January calls but I plan to be more involved in this space in 2010.

 

 

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch:

  • CHK - Barclays boosts target by $2 to $34, maintains Overweight
  • ECA cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
  • ACI - upped to Buy at UBS

Interesting Reading Watch:

399 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Preview + BEXP, PQ, Coal Thoughts …”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    30 min to open

    Crude turning positive

    NG up 17 cents, more than half yesterday’s decline as, yep, it’s still very cold deep into the South. Buddy of mine in Miami complaining about having to turn the heat on. Waaahhhh.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Analyst Watch: RBC raises BEXP to Outperform from Sector Perform.

  3. 3
    PackMan Says:

    BEXP upgraded by RBC (at least is wasnt JPM ! lol)

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Pack – Yep, he’s too busy trying to pair a good wine with crow.

  5. 5
    andy Says:

    thanks for letting dumb me know those were west coast times, been trying to get on for for last half hour!!! never did find link (maybe too early) could u pls post when u find. thks

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Andy – I think the links are going to be on the company sites, if they are available. I’ll post the ones I get on throughout the day. If someone does find a master link to the actual presentations that would be great.

  7. 7
    bill Says:

    >Interior Czar Salazar to announce changes to the U.S. onshore leasing system at a press conference at 12:30 EST. Look for lease durations to be cut short.

    amazing, exactly the opposite of what they should be doing. This makes the lease less valuable and the mms will get less for lease sales

    We need business people in gov’t positions . Seems like they all go to work and each day they try to figure a new way to screw companies.

  8. 8
    bill Says:

    swn has a new presentation out

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Thanks, they speak at Pritchard today too. I saw their production guidance for 2010 remains the same at 36% but have not looked at the rest of it yet.

  10. 10
    bill Says:

    They have great reserve replacement and production growth. Appears to be lightly hedge to ng in 2010. Cost per mcf are falling fast as well

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Re SWN hedges – they had been about 10% for 2010, holding out for higher prices, so far a good move.

  12. 12
    bill Says:

    this is too good not to share

    http://autos.aol.com/article/audible-speeding-tickets

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    BEXP $15.30

  14. 14
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — you’ve had a great call on BEXP… merely noting the MileStones puts you head-and-shoulders above the sell side competition. Congrats.

    TechTrader still MIA.

    HeadTrader noting all the bullish calls (like GS and Bill Miller) out there.

    Credit mrkts in Wildfire Mode.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    BEXP impacting NOG nicely, through $13.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Thanks much BOP.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    BEXP trading 50 to 100K shares per minute in the early going. That’s fairly strong.

  18. 18
    bill Says:

    exxi at 2.70
    bexp doing well
    pq up

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    ATPG had news out yesterday, didn’t see it until now, looks like a progress update …

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    KOG warming up as well

  21. 21
    West Says:

    http://www.kodiakog.com/pdf/KOG_Jan2010.pdf …new KOG presentation you may have to copy and paste. Of interest on slide 11 they show 6 proposed 3forks location in concert with Bakken locations. 2010 budget up to $ 60 mil, drl 15 op wells and 7 non-op wells and wildcat probably in NE Montana.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Thanks West. Have you heard anything about NFX’s Chanel 1-33 well near these last 2 BEXP wells, said to be completing.

  23. 23
    West Says:

    Cimarex, XEC, continues to fly under the radar. In the Texas panhandle area XEC has 120,000+ gross and 90,000+ net acres. In the Granite Wash area in Hemphill and Roberts Counties, TX they have over 50,000 acres and interest in over 50 producing Granite Wash wells. They have 1 operated rig running at this time and are participating with Forest Oil on a non-operated basis. They are gearing back up as cash flow and energy prices continue to improve……..They are more active a little further east in the Cana-Woodford play of Oklahoma with Devon with 3 operated rigs running now and going to 6. They have 94,000 net acres in this play with half HBP . Potentional estimated reserves from Cana could be 3 Tcf which is double current reserves based on 160 acre spacing, XEC and DVN plan an 80acre/ 8 well per section test in early 2010. This has the potentional of adding large additional reserves if successful……. In the Permian Basin XEC has large land position with over 720,000 gross and 370,000 net acres and average daily production of 13,000 bopd. They plan to have 10 rigs running in the Permian thru 2010 if prices remain in this range……… In South Texas their 3D seismic play in the Yeagua formation continues to show excellent results with 4 discoveries in 2009 with average IP per well of 40 MMcfpd, ( 28 MM cfpd and 2,100 bopd). I know about IPs and the first well the Two Sisters #1 averaged 25 MMcfpd and 1,800 bopd over it’s first 90 days of production. They currently have 2 rigs running in this area drilling offsets to the above mentioned 4 wells. XEC has had a big move after breaking out at 49 and currently trades at 55. This should be an excellent growth year for XEC and is an excellent candidate for long term players to accumulate on pull backs. It is one of the highest picks on my list of potentional take out cos with Devon as the suitor. In a recent DVN presentation they said that the Cana-Woodward was their highest ROR play onshore North America.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    NFX is also going to be big in the Cana, lot of leasing by them on it.

  25. 25
    West Says:

    I have not seen or heard on the NFX well but I will let you know if I do find something.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Thanks West, you can see where it is on the BEXP presentation in Rough Rider east.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Oil inventories in 45 minutes. If we do get the lousy numbers predicted by API in the EIa’s version, I will punt the BEXP Jans and then load the Febs in fairly short order.

  28. 28
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    west #21 — thank you for the summary. I know that a number of PMs have grown weary of Lynn’s style of communication and did not see any near-term catalysts in the stock, post well #9. Even long-term supporters of the name have been selling down their holdings in KOG, looking for other horses to ride in the Bakken race. Maybe that selling is over now and KOG rises into their end of Jan earnings call. But unless KOG gives investors a reason to want to own the stock, it could continue to lag the group.

    Personally, I think Lynn lost a lot of cred, the way the 2ndary and well #9 was handled… but KOG doesn’t need money for the foreseeable future, so it will be educational to see how they handle communications going forward. “Laid-back” is just not cutting it, with a lot of PMs these days.

    Expect KOG to run (as it occassionally does) on M&A rumors at points in the future… but you won’t see any BEXP-type wells announced from these guys. Too bad. They could use just a whiff more enthusiasm and still not be considered promotional, imho.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    BOP – Re BEXP type wells. KOG either isn’t drilling them the same way or they simply don’t have the same reserves per acre under their feet. My bet would be both. If you mean from a 24 hour test rate standpoint, the 7 and 30 day rates listed in the BEXP presentation are pretty strong as well.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    ISM non-manu in 2 minutes, Street looking for 51%.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — you mis-heard me. I wasn’t slamming BEXP’s acreage or well-reporting. Just lamenting that KOG (for whatever reason) isn’t posting similar results. I hear you on teh 7 and 30 day reports. They are strong.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    50.1% on that number

  33. 33
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    http://www.pritchardcapital.com/news/upcoming.html

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    BOP – Ok, hear ya, wasn’t sure. I have been asking them to put the 7 and 30 day averages out so was pleased to see them in the presentation this morning.

    Market seems to be holding ok post ISM, still have oil numbers in 30 minutes to get through.

    Group a very mixed bag today, feels directionless and a bit tired.

  35. 35
    bill Says:

    west thanks for 23

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    BOP – thanks for 33. Wondering if that part about brown bag presentations at the bottom means that most of the presentations won’t be public.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    ANR topping $50. I will be punting my Januaries there soon and will be looking to extend into out months in the coals, I think in BTU and ANR… the WLT looks extended to my naive TA eye.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    HAL through $32. I think this was Jerome’s big level. Came within a hair of punting the $31s yesterday. Now they are performing well and the $33s are waking up as well.

    Reef – Natural gas up 31 cents now. Who knows man, lol.

  39. 39
    bill Says:

    xec presentation for pritchard

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjU1NzZ8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

  40. 40
    West Says:

    http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=6683112….new presentation for PXD

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    BEXP presentation does not look like it’s open to the public, just the presentation.

    We have BMO and Goldman energy conferences next week. We also have another well in the “any day now” category in central Rough Rider. It’s lower risk and therefore probably not worth as much to the stock. After that, another RR well and a Ross well, the first in awhile, will be completed.

    Wow = NOG, KOG, AEZ

  42. 42
    bill Says:

    Will calif default on debt?

    Will they allow offfshore drilling to close gap?

    PXP & VQ hope yes to the latter

  43. 43
    isleworth Says:

    Z – WRES presentation for 5PM EST Pritchard will be posted at 12:30 EST

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Thanks Isle – did you see PQ stuff in the post, they got those 4 wells out, pretty good IPs.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    EIA Oil Inventory Report:

    Crude up 1.3 mm mm barrels
    Gasoline up 3.7 mm barrels
    Distillates down 0.3 mm barrels

    Gasoline demand 8.741 mm bpd
    Distillate demand 1.54 mm bpd

    not pretty numbers

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Watching stocks pretty closely for a possible sell off.

    Imports were 8.4 mm bopd, still low but up 300Kbopd from last week.

    Surprised there is not a bigger reaction to the downside in the names.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Refining utilization fell just below 80%, so they are still showing good discipline in the face of high finished products inventories and weak margins.

    The crude headline number is pretty easy to forgive given the utilization and the imports rally.

    Gasoline dip is probably snow storm related.

  48. 48
    baylor3217 Says:

    Z what r ur thoughts on the bexp calls?

  49. 49
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Merrill upgraded CLNE today.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Baylor – not in a huge rush to sell them unless it tries to break back through $15. Will likely come out of the Januaries either late today or tomorrow.

    Crude down 90 cents, I would have expected more of a drop on those numbers, Street must be looking forward to a week without holidays in it and more cold air.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tom … that stinks.

  52. 52
    isleworth Says:

    Nice job on the PQ analysis…..tks! I still think it is a very good LT buy, looking at short term weakness as an opportunity to continue to accumulate. My position average is now just over $2, even after some recent buying. Fortunately got brave when it tanked last year. Tks again.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Isle – then you did better than I did, I got washed out earlier. Am looking for some weakness to get long again.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Getting tempted on EOG weakness to add, waiting on $95 to go into Feb calls.

    BEXP holding that $15.30 to $15.40 range post inventories.

    Crude off $0.55. There is still plenty of time for traders to sell it off but so far they seem pretty content in here, volumes quickly tapering off.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Cushing stocks are really blowing out. At 35.7 mm barrels they were up 1.2 mm barrels week to week. And now EOG has a train that will put 60,000 bopd into Cushing. That’s not all incremental to what was going their from the Bakken before but it adds sureness to the delivers. If mid west refiners don’t get their production off the ground soon, crude is going to stall.

  56. 56
    bill Says:

    Yes, its amazing that oil keeps going up

  57. 57
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Are there any constraints on Cushing storage? Like NG is there a limit?

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Bill – If Cushing keeps rising we will get back to the talk about capacity there. If you come up against it (and I think it is a little over 40 mm barrels) then prices just about have to come in some.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Tom – Yeah, it’s a big tank farm. There is a limit, not sure exactly because it has been recently expanded but I think it is 10 to 15% above here. Unlike a salt cavern full of natural gas where you can squeeze in more with pressure and because you really don’t know how much it can hold (at least not exactly), with oil you have a glass that is full when it is full.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Crude down 20 cents. Not sure what they are liking here beyond the fact that the numbers are holiday and blizzard skewed. Another constraint on crude will be if we see gasoline and diesel demand fail to pick up next week.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Jerome – Any updated thoughts on HAL with a concentration on the very near term, just trying to pick an exit and a re entry in the Febs.

  62. 62
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Does VNR have any sexy drilling areas like LINE has with the Granite Wash? Which would you guess has the greater probability of a dividend increase?

  63. 63
    wcoaster Says:

    West – thanks for the XEC synopsis It just bumped to the top of my shopping list, along with PQ.

    Does anyone know if the new BEXP Rough Rider well is adjacent to the AEZ acreage that just started drilling? Mr. Market sure thinks so.

    Z – on the coal list, do you have any opinion of CLD, the December IPO? Rio Tinto usually runs their mines pretty well.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Wcoast – sorry no, I should add them to the list, don’t know their mix of coals or costs so can’t comment. You are right in your Rio comment though, will add it.

    AEZ is north of there I’m pretty sure, will check.

    Tom – VNR has a much greater chance of boosting their dividend this year. VNR has E.F.S. potential.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Crude up 80 cents now.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    …. and is leading products up by 4 to 1 over heating oil.

  67. 67
    VTZ Says:

    I’m actually surprised by the move in HAL the most of all the recent movers.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    V – I am pleased with that move, been waiting for it to happen a little longer than I like. Oil over $80 and gas flirting with $6 should move names like HAL higher. I went in most recently after the move by XOM to refocus on NAM, as no one builds an overpriced well like Exxon and HAL is pretty NAM centric.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Speaking of Granite Wash, FST running today. They are overdue on some well news there. Recall, they had the biggest recorded IP at 30 mm/d in the play to date. Damn that Catalyst List is handy.

  70. 70
    choices Says:

    Not sure if this has been noted here but SD cut to neutral from Outperform by Boenning & Scattergood-I’ve never heard of the firm but I guess that does not mean too much.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Choices – I’ve never heard of them either, but there are lots of little bucket shops out there. Not a chance the analyst there, if he is even energy specific, is an axe in the sector. Sounds like a good name for a law firm, lol.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    KOG having the best day in the Bakkens now, up 8%.

  73. 73
    ram Says:

    Are you expecting more upgrades of BEXP after latest well results?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Ram – I’m not. Could happen though. There are five guys at Hold at present out of 15 brokers.

    If I had a concern at the moment with the name they would be more downgrades on valuation (it is steep on CF and TEV/EBITDA for 2010 estimates) and maybe a secondary. If they decide they want to accelerate their program beyond the 3 rigs they have now with another on the way, it will force them to think about selling shares.

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    UBS with a mid morning Coal sector note:

    Upping price targets:
    ANR from 43 to 55 Buy
    BTU 45 => 50 Neutral
    MEE 42 => 53 Buy
    WLT 66 => 83 Neutral

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Market looks to have fallen asleep.

  77. 77
    ram Says:

    Lunch time.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    “Lunch is for wimps”

  79. 79
    West Says:

    z, here is NFX well that just came off confidential on the Nesson Anticline just for information purposes.NDIC File No: 17758 API No: 33-053-02961-00-00 CTB No: 117758
    Well Type: OG Well Status: A Status Date: 8/14/2009
    Wellbore type: Horizontal
    Location: SESW 28-153-96 Footages: 200 FSL 1350 FWL Latitude:
    48.0388053939575 Longitude: -103.037872864724
    Current Operator: NEWFIELD PRODUCTION COMPANY
    Current Well Name: ALICE FEDERAL 1-28H
    Elevation(s): 2341 KB 2315 GL Total Depth: 14850 Field:
    WILDCAT
    Spud Date(s): 7/3/2009
    Casing String(s): 9.625″ 2007′ 7″ 10904′
    Completion Data
    Pool: BAKKEN Perfs: 10904-14850 Comp: 8/14/2009 Status:
    AL Date: 10/21/2009 Spacing: SEC
    Cumulative Production Data
    Pool: BAKKEN Cum Oil: 16298 Cum MCF Gas: 15986 Cum
    Water: 3398
    Production Test Data
    IP Test Date: 8/15/2009 Pool: BAKKEN IP Oil: 617 IP
    MCF: 990 IP Water: 187

    Monthly Production Data
    Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare
    BAKKEN 10-2009 19 2753 2749 582 2630 2630 0
    BAKKEN 9-2009 29 5651 5841 1098 8250 8250 0
    BAKKEN 8-2009 31 7894 7563 1718 5106 5106 0

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    West – thanks, not sure which one of their pilots that one is in.

  81. 81
    West Says:

    Granite Wash. Here is a link of Forest Oil’s Granite Wash presentation for those with an interest….http://www.forestoil.com/downloads/present_bw_granite_wash_update.pdf…..you may have to copy and paste.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Thanks West.

    NG at $5.99

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Crude up $1.15.

  84. 84
    ram Says:

    Who’s speaking to cause NOG to run now?

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    It’s probably just the uptick in the S&P last few minutes. The stock has been moving well off the BEXP news all day. I would still expect to hear about one of their big wells between now and the quarterly release.

  86. 86
    ram Says:

    Any of the Bakken guys due up soon?

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    BEXP was earlier, no one of note really.

    Here’s the schedule:
    http://www.meetmax.com/upload/pcpjan10/Energize2010Schedule.pdf

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    Reef – wondering if IOC might have something extra to say in front of their presentation tomorrow, stock getting only the slightest of lulls since I cam out yesterday. One of my TA contacts saying it will end badly as it runs along the top RSI line.

  89. 89
    bill Says:

    gst catylst– boasier well to be reported within weeks

  90. 90
    1520sbroad Says:

    z – did you listen to SWN? I didn’t but wanted to see if they said anything remotely exciting.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    1520 – I found no link to get into it, I saw nothing new since their 2010 guidance the other day in their presentation.

  92. 92
    1520sbroad Says:

    catalyst tab is very helpful

  93. 93
    ram Says:

    Maybe you’re buddy Toby goosed NOG?

  94. 94
    bill Says:

    re swn: i listened to it..nothing jumped out

    Mentioned they are breakeven on cash flow after cap exp with 6 ng

  95. 95
    bill Says:

    gst just ended pq next

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Bill – Re GST thanks, will take a look at their presentation, and add that one. They have in the past not moved or not moved much on the news, even if they are very big wells. They are deep, expensive wells for sure. Need to take a look at their balance sheet and plan going forward. Would like it if they had EFS potential under them but I think they are too far north.

  97. 97
    bill Says:

    i cracked the url code, lol

    http://www.wsw.com/webcast/pritch2/pq/

    follow the calender and replace the ticker at the end of the url with the new one

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Bill – do you have an audio link for all of these? I have not yet found one.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Bill = NICE WORK.

  100. 100
    1520sbroad Says:

    #94 – thanks bill.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    I’m on PQ! Thanks Bill!

  102. 102
    bill Says:

    http://www.petroquest.com/PDFs/January2010.pdf

    intersting slide page 11

    rates are better with new techniques 12.5 vs 2.9

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    …because I am most interested in listening to Crimson, CXPO, which just did an offering at $5 and is languishing.

    Hayenville – 12,000 acres
    EFS – 2,800 acres

    Some of management here I have met and respect. Interesting. Small but interesting. Big potential.

  104. 104
    bill Says:

    you might have to go to company website for pdf files

    I like what im hearing

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Bill – the PQ comments are very similar to their last conf call. Good stuff, nothing earth shatteringly new so far.

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    Jerome – Another interesting chart for you to look at SFY. They speak in a little under an hour at Pritchard, stock looks like base/triple top to me. Has good sized Eagle Ford potential plus Louisiana oil (the Lake Washington salt dome)

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    Going back to listen to SWN replay before moving on.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE

    HAL – Sold (20 – all) of the HAL $31 January Calls for $1.51, up 104%. Will likely punt the $33’s soon and look for a point in the next few days to roll longer but with no real rush on that.

  109. 109
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #61 HAL, dialing down to the 30 min chart and speaking very short term, in the day-trade time frame, HAL has a nice continuation consolidation triangle forming after the $32 breakout…if itraday support fails, cover profits at $32.20, re-entry long at 20 period SMA support at $31.85…

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Hit the sell button before I got your note. Thanks, felt like I was being greedy on those.

  111. 111
    Jerome Blank Says:

    That’s funny we were typing at the same time…KOG has an interesting chart again…

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    SWN – I do see something new, at least new to me, a 4th E. Texas well at 21 mm/d. That’s large for that area. Progression has been 7, 13, 16, now 21. It’s a wonder the stock did not react to that.

  113. 113
    Jerome Blank Says:

    SFY has a nice looking P&F chart…on a buy signal in x’s, SFY has stubborn resistance near $26…SFY holds its current buy signal from here until a print of $21…

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Yep, that E. Texas Haynesville 4th well is not in the last presentation I have. Good for them, good for EOG in the vicinity.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    SFY – If management wasn’t related in some was to keystone cops I’d be in there now.

  116. 116
    bill Says:

    mcf bouncing off lows,

    i think people will start to push these ng stocks up and fingers crossed for a good report on thursday

    sd back to 10.50

  117. 117
    Jerome Blank Says:

    KOG is testing overhead trendline resistance as we speak…if you start at a point beginning at 9/17/09 on the daily candle chart and run a trendline down the topside tails thru today, you can see that trading stopped right at the trendline, this is essentially a 5th test, a close at $2.70 should be considered by most to be a breakout…

  118. 118
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — thank you for the KOG comments.

  119. 119
    baylor3217 Says:

    I’m think abt punting my feb nog calls and tremtetimhhon a pullback. Thoughts?

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    BEXP – JB – any new thoughts there? I’m considering doing a little selling later today or tomorrow, just the calls, not the common. Wondering if they are going to get antsy about their level of activity … which would mean another deal. I’d bet they hold off for awhile but there’s no time like when the iron is hot.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Baylor – I am thinking the same thing.

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    BOP is in the house!

  123. 123
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Wells Fargo 2010 best ideas (42) include HAL, NFX and WMB. Barclay’s 2010 best ideas XOM, NGLS, STR, APA, HK and IO

  124. 124
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    i’ve been a Lurker today…

    Really pleased to see wcoaster comment. That is someone I always pay a lot of attention too…

  125. 125
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Interesting… Gross on the tape saying he doesn’t expect to see a rate increase this year. Honestly, I can see either scenario playing out (raising rates this summer / not raising rates until 2011)… but I don’t think the Fed wants to be seen as taking the Punch Bowl away before the November elections.

    Anyway, if rates stay low and USD stays weak-ish and China continues to post double-digit GDP numbers, have to think energy (oil) prices stay high…

  126. 126
    Jerome Blank Says:

    HAL trying to break out above the 30 min triangle, consider holding intra-day longs…stop at $32.20, if HAL gets to $32.50 move stops to $32.35…would like to see some vol pick up on this breakout attempt….

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Street must be postulating that things return to normal next week for product demand and for natural gas. These are big moves. I don’t really get oil at $83, up $1.40 on the day on that data or the current trends.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Thanks JB, letting my $33 strikes run a bit in here. The higher it goes, the slower I will be to reload with Febs.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    CNBC says sparring in the Fed minutes between members over inflation.

  130. 130
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — seeing some strategy pieces for China growth that are pretty compelling… Combine that with “no rate increases” and several at the last FOMC policy meeting talking up additional open market help (Dec 15-16), you get weak USD + China growth = support for $85 oil, imho.

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    SFY call not public, listening to ESV instead.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    Even my little WRES moving nicely in here. They speak tomorrow at Pritchard.

    BOP – aren’t you interested in ESV / shallow water rigs?

  133. 133
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Looks like WRES breaking out on huge vol today…

  134. 134
    Jerome Blank Says:

    ZMAN we must be of one mind today…this is the second time we were thinking about the same thing at the exact same time…

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    ANR continuing to rip higher. I will be out of that before Payrolls on Friday, maybe today. Will look to reload in a coal name Friday or next week.

  136. 136
    baylor3217 Says:

    Sold the nogbb for 3.60

  137. 137
    jat Says:

    Hey all,

    Have there been any thoughts posted here on upcoming Lucius announcements? I’m thinking with regards to PXP/ME/APC.

  138. 138
    Jay Says:

    Off topic:

    We got a nice news feature re our invention on our local ABC station 2 1/2 minutes long.

    http://www.ktbs.com/arklatex-made/

    JR

  139. 139
    zman Says:

    Mentioned by BOP yesterday. I’ve not heard anything since the original announcement (200 feet of pay yada, yada)

  140. 140
    Jerome Blank Says:

    Re: #118, hi BOP…thank you, I missed your message…KOG has really recovered the last few days…

  141. 141
    zman Says:

    Congrats Jay! I apparently need a new flash player. Will look at tonight.

  142. 142
    West Says:

    Ugly Duckling play, DNR, moving up nicely with increased volume. Next resistance 17.11

  143. 143
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Jerome — a lot of energy names turned the corner in the last 3 weeks… KOG was just one of the last ones to join the party, it look like.

    Nice call on all those energy calls you bought over the Christmas Lull, z!

  144. 144
    Jerome Blank Says:

    UNG trying to perfect that cup and handle breakout, it missed the $11 print by a few ticks…the 30 min chart looks fairly decent thus far today…it’s currently trailing the front month future by about 1% so far today, but it’s still moving nicely…if the front month NG contract breaks thru and holds above $6, I’d like to see as a catalyst to finally send UNG back on a P&F buy signal at $12.50 after what seems like a lifetime…this would also break the 200 period daily SMA ceiling…that would be huge…

  145. 145
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    after bill’s Litany of Woes (and reasons why PMs scream at the sound of CEO Flores’ name), i’m thinking I might have to take a look at ME, as the way to play Lucius.

    Just noodling…

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    NFX – Added (10) February $55 calls (NFXBK) for $1.25 (easily on the mid) with the stock at $50.95. I’m thinking they are overdue for an ops update, and last year they gave guidance mid January. I continue to hold my Feb $50 position here and the common.

  147. 147
    zman Says:

    Crimson call starting, CXPO

  148. 148
    zman Says:

    How do you get 400 locations on 12,000 acres?

  149. 149
    zman Says:

    TexW – How far do expect to downspace the Haynesville? I know its early but would you tell people you will someday get to 30 acre spacing?

  150. 150
    Jerome Blank Says:

    #142, DNR is currently on a P&F sell signal but is right at P&F trendline resistance at West’s resistance point at $17, DNR breaks a new P&F buy signal with a print of $17.50…

  151. 151
    zman Says:

    Cool IP heat map for the Haynesville on slide 10 of the CXPO presentation:

    http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MzYzNTAyfENoaWxkSUQ9MzU3ODUwfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

  152. 152
    zman Says:

    CXPO – highest IP in the play (over 30). I’ve heard of bigger, depends on how you choke it. They mentioned flowing tubing pressure > 10,000 psi, that’s pretty darn high.

    TEXW or Reef or anyone, you know these guys? Some former NFX and EOG talent on their team.

  153. 153
    West Says:

    Jerome do you have a post on Stockcharts.com?

  154. 154
    zman Says:

    West – that would be a good idea.

  155. 155
    zman Says:

    CXPO – Sounds like 2 wells in the EFS this year, one of them close to the PXD area, the other sort of close to HK’s new area in Zavala. Reminds me I need to do a little snooping on HK’s efforts over there, should be an update there soon.

  156. 156
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #153, West, no…do you mean some type of posting like we do here?

  157. 157
    zman Says:

    Jerome – you might play around with this site. It allows you to annotate charts and show them to others.

    http://stockcharts.com/

  158. 158
    West Says:

    Jerome on your p&f charts are you using atr or traditional ?

  159. 159
    Jerome Blank Says:

    RE: #158, West…usually traditional charts with traditional box sizes…I like avg true range when looking at P&F charts for things like commodities…

  160. 160
    andy Says:

    z – re 148 12,000 net acres – they have 30,000 gross acres. u like these guys???

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    Andy – dunno yet, liking the team, liking the plan for this year, feels early, need to go have a look at their balance sheet and work up a CF estimate as I don’t think anyone has published one on them yet.

  162. 162
    West Says:

    Thx JB

  163. 163
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    ANR – Sold the (5 -all) January $45 calls (ANRAI) for $5.30, up 247%, with the stock at $50.20. I plan to reload in another coal name or two either after Payrolls on Friday or next week.

  164. 164
    zman Says:

    Tomorrow’s big news is jobless claims, then the NG number, then a bunch of treasury auctions. I would imagine the market will be a boring trader until we get the Payrolls number on Friday.

  165. 165
    ram Says:

    Still mulling NOG and BEXP?

  166. 166
    zman Says:

    Yep, yep

  167. 167
    zman Says:

    BEXP seeing nice volume in the Jan 15s and better in the Feb 17.50s now.

  168. 168
    zman Says:

    Does anyone have a copy of the RBC upgrade of BEXP note? Thx.

  169. 169
    zman Says:

    beerthirty

  170. 170
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    whoa… you step away from your desk for 45mins (to replace the coffee pot you broke) and WOW. KOG overtakes BEXP in today’s Horse Race.

    Of course, BEXP is ahead by about… well, two miles… over the last two months. But, still. Kinda amusing.

  171. 171
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Not only that… but EXXI and KOG both close at $2.63! That is just too weird!!

    [HeadTrader’s response to my last comment: “only if y live in that land”]

    HT has not lost his sense of humor.

  172. 172
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    typo… y = u

  173. 173
    zman Says:

    NG trading at $6.04 in the ah, up 40 cents on the day. Supposed to snow over a big piece of the country tonight, including here which is rare.

    BOP – my aggregated position in KOG is up about 140%. Thanks for that one.

    The EXXI is up about 30% on a much shorter hold so far, thanks for that as well, with my bigger slug of it up 38%.

  174. 174
    zman Says:

    Got a summation of the RBC upgrade piece on BEXP, short and sweet.

    They see 40% growth with 2/3 of that being oil this year.

    Their $17 target is based on a discounted NAV of 18 to 19

    Their EBITDA multiple is a whopping 17x with the group trading 5 to 10x EBITDA on 2010 numbers. They are basically saying the growth, oily, catalyst rich player is worth the multiple. I sort of think we are nearing a near term top. Until we see numbers really come up to meet it the price is going to get hard to justify. I understand the whole pendulum thing and it may take out $20 on this move but I’m going to be a seller on much further strength (just thinking of the calls, not the common which I plan to hold awhile).

  175. 175
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z — yeah… i really shoulda jumped into BEXP too. That is my only (recent) regret. It’s got that scary balance sheet (on the mend) thing, going for it. That is my fav type of special situation.

  176. 176
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    It’s such a relief, not to be worried about the End of the World As We Know It this year. I’m hoping last year was the Hundred Year Flood-type thing, in the credit markets.

    Investment Grade CDS Index at +77 bps (remember when this blew out to almost 300 bps, just 13 short months ago??)

    High Yield CDX Index at 100.75 pts (after going below 68).

    Those KSU 13% bonds issued at 88.4 in Dec 2008 are now almost 120.

    Just a little Year-Over-Year musing….

  177. 177
    baylor3217 Says:

    Thoughts on nfx? It seems to have lagged the group othr than it’s move today

  178. 178
    zman Says:

    Baylor – Lagged the group over what time frame; can you be more specific when you say lagged? Since the March lows its gone from $17 to $51, up 200%. For the same period, SWN up 108%, XNG up 90%.

    I added today as I expect them to, in fairly short order, provide an operations update and guidance for 2010. They should have some interesting information from the Bakken and should be able to present a compelling growth profile well into 2011 as they bring on five more deepwater Gulf of Mexico developments. At under 5x 2010 cash flow, the name is inexpensive and longer term I think they get taken out.

  179. 179
    West Says:

    NFX recent discoveries in the Bkn/3Fks, the 1-31H Trigger in Section 31-160-102 nearest Bkn production is about 25 miles away. The #1-21H Sergarent Major in Section 21-150-90, NFX has applied for temporary spacing,field limits and rules from NDIC. The Sergarent major is making 71 bopd now with cum of 3837 for 4 months, probably not economic for a 4,000′ lateral. The Trigger is still on confidential status so lets hope it is better than Sarge. A look at the ND map and you can see that the Trigger is a true rank wildcat. The area just west of the Nesson Anticline in 153-96 is the most active with 2 rigs running and at least 10 additional location permitted.Encore also has a large acreage position just southwest of these locations in their Cherry prospect.

  180. 180
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    BedTime Mrkt Strategist

    Exit Schmexit
    Delivering bad news is all about timing and delivery, these could be the two most important traits of a Central Banker. Central Bankers do not falsify information but they do selectively disclose for the stated purpose of avoiding unintended influence on financial markets. It is one of the reasons why the FOMC staff outlook tends to lead the FOMC member outlook. The low profile nature of the staff permits them to be more forthright with their views. Today, the FOMC released the minutes of the mid-December meeting. Overall, it was a very dovish outlook as a few nuggets of hope were mixed among a landscape of weakness, fear and uncertainty. It was an example of a situation where the FOMC members have seen enough improvement in the economy that they can actually candidly discuss the negatives and headwinds that remain. The FOMC needed to highlight the negatives as justification for the continuation of the easy monetary policy.

    The showstopper of the December minutes was this statement, “Some participants remained concerned about the economy’s ability to generate a self-sustaining recovery without government support. In particular, they noted the risk that improvements in the housing sector might be undercut next year as the Federal Reserve’s purchases of MBS wind down, the homebuyer tax credits expire, and foreclosures and distress sales continue.” They built upon that statement later in the minutes during the Monetary Policy outlook, “A few members noted that resource slack was expected to diminish only slowly and observed that it might become desirable at some point in the future to provide more policy stimulus by expanding the planned scale of the Committee’s large-scale asset purchases and continuing them beyond the first quarter, especially if the outlook for economic growth were to weaken or if mortgage market functioning were to deteriorate.” Since November, we have been highlighting St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard’s views that the Fed should keep the Asset Purchase program in place and use it on an as needed basis, rather than sunset it in March as planned. The $1.25 Trillion in Mortgage Backed Securities purchases have subsidized mortgage rates for the past year, as well as providing liquidity to the system. The program’s expiration will be a major event.

    These comments foreshadow that the Fed is likely going to head in that direction at its next meeting at the end of this month. The FOMC also planted the seeds to allow such action. As expected, and as we are all aware, there was a great deal of focus upon the expected slack in the economy persisting throughout the year as a mild recovery occurs. In the commentary about inflation, discussion of dollar weakness was dropped, and the following new language was added, “anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment.” In a step likely intended to head off bubble fears, the FOMC took the unorthodox action of actually blessing valuation levels here in the U.S. “In general, U.S. asset values did not seem out of line with improving fundamentals.” This is essentially an official follow-up to a statement Bernanke made during a Q&A on November 16th when asked about bubble , “It’s not obvious to me in any case that there’s any large misalignments currently in the U.S. financial system.” Interestingly, neither of these Bernanke ratifications of asset values has received a fraction of the attention that Alan Greenspan’s “Irrational Exuberance ” warning in 1996 received.

    In summary, the minutes noted that despite better than expected economic data, surprise upward revisions of previously reported personal income data, and an increase in the economic outlook, the FOMC will only modestly remove the slack in the economy in 2010. There are the additional dual risks for the Asset Purchase program and the Homebuyer Tax Credit expiring at approximately the same time. The Fed cannot control the Homebuyer Tax Credit, but it does control the Asset Purchase Program. All of this sets the stage for the FOMC to move towards keeping the Asset Purchase program alive beyond March, albeit in a reduced format.

  181. 181
    PackMan Says:

    “Some participants remained concerned about the economy’s ability to generate a self-sustaining recovery without government support. ”

    Gee, ya don’t say ?

  182. 182
    zman Says:

    Thanks West, guess I will have to wait on NFX to release the Chanel results.

  183. 183
    RMD Says:

    on airplanes all day so quickly:
    BEXP’s State 36-1 is closest well to southwestern corner of AEZ’s Goliath project (I think 8 miles away?). I had expected a pop on the State36-1 news, but probably others were also and sold the news?
    CXPO – happened to flip through prospectus on plane today. Their acreae was not mapped , but my impression was it was scattered about. My summary notes were: no hedge gains until 9months 09; (20%) natural decline curve in legacyproduction(?) p. 47; big debt due in ’11 and ’12; really pushed the Kardell #1H IP rate, but came clean that they had only 3,000 acres in the prospect. I think the 100 pot’l locations mentioned are gross wells (p70).
    Remember, I just glanced through the prospectus.

  184. 184
    baylor3217 Says:

    By “recent” I was referring to the last 4 or 5 weeks.

  185. 185
    zman Says:

    BEXP – cut to Hold by Natixis

  186. 186
    bill Says:

    Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, the industry’s dominant trade group, said the decision would make it more difficult to produce domestic oil and gas and would be a setback for the economy. “Under the guise of offering certainty for investors, Interior Secretary Salazar has taken steps to further delay and limit American energy resources for all Americans,” Mr. Gerard said in a statement from Washington.

    He said that in the year the Obama administration had been in office, federal revenue from oil and gas leases in the region known as the intermountain West had fallen by more than 80 percent.

  187. 187
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