29
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 1/8/10

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Holdings Watch:  (for the week ended 1/8/10)

  • $10KP II: $33,300
  • Cash: 41%

Last Week's Closed Trades: 

  • IOC – Sold my (2) January $70 calls (IOCAN) for $14, up 135%. Will reposition soon.
  • NOG – Sold (40) NOG $12.50 January calls for $0.50 (on the mid), up 91%, with the stock at $12.67. I continue to own the Feb $10s and plan to add to that position soon.
  • SWN – Sold (20) SWN $50 January calls (TKQAJ) for $2.40, up 55%, with the stock at 51.75. I continue to hold the January and February $55 calls here and the common.
  • HAL – Sold (20 – all) of the HAL $31 January Calls for $1.51, up 104%. Will likely punt the $33’s soon and look for a point in the next few days to roll longer but with no real rush on that.
  • ANR – Sold the (5 -all) January $45 calls (ANRAI) for $5.30, up 247%, with the stock at $50.20. I plan to reload in another coal name or two either after Payrolls on Friday or next week. 

Comments To Be Added Sunday ....

 

(as of 12/25/09) – Due To A Change In Platform Software, the Weekend Wrap will be a subscribers only feature for awhile. To view all new posts you will need to be logged in.

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:
    • $26,200
    • 70% Cash
    • The Holdings Tab has been updated.
  • Last Week's Closed Trades:

    • BEXP – Sold the January $10 Calls for $4, up 240% with the stock at $14.
    • SWN – Sold the $48 January calls for $3.30, up 111% with the stock at $50.50. I continue to hold the common and the $50 strikes I took earlier.
    • EOG – Sold the January $95 Calls for 5.80, up 104%. I continue to hold the $100 strikes I bought earlier today
    • SWN – sold the 5 January $50 calls for $2.30, up 37% on a less than bullish 166 Bcf withdrawal. I’ll buy them back lower next week.
    • EOG – sold the (5) $100 January calls for $3.00, up 34%. Just taking a little cash off the table in this light market.

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II:

    • $20,500
    • 75% Cash
  • The Holdings Tab has been updated.

Closed Trades For the Week Ended 12/18/09:

  • WLL – Sold the December $60 call for $6.60, up 35%, with the stock at $66.70.
  • BEXP – Sold the (20) $12.50 January calls for $0.85, up 172% with the stock at $12.50.
  • WLL – Sold the (10) December $65 calls for $2.70, up 16%. Will roll to longer dated calls after a pullback from these levels. I continue to own the common.
  • HK – Sold the (10) December $22 calls for $2.10, up 75%.
  • SWN – Sold all (15) of the December $43 calls for $2, up 28%, with the stock at $44.90.
  • WLT – Sold my December $70 contracts for $6.80 (on the mid), up 49%, with the stock at $76.75. I also hold a few worthless $80s.
  • EOG – Sold the (5) EOG $90 December calls (EOGLR) for $4, up 93%. I hold some worthless $100s as well so this will be a little better than a wash.
  • NFX – Sold (10, all) the December $45s for $1.50, up 29%, with the stock at $46.38.
  • NOG – Sold the (10) Janaury $10 Calls for $1.30, up 108%, with the stock at $11.10.
  • SWN – Sold the December $45s for average $1.52, up 15%, with the stock trading around 46.50.
  • HAL – Sold the (10) HAL Decembers $29 Calls for $1.15, up a whopping 2%.
  • HAL – Sold the WildZ from yesterday for $0.19, down 46%.
  • SWN – Took 10 of my 15 January 45 calls (TKQAI) off the table for $2.80, up 51%, with the stock at $46.50. Just booking a little more cash.
  • SWN – Sold the remain (5) SWN January $45 calls for $3.20, up 66%

Wrap Comments:

1) Thank You Exxon! I don't get to say that often but then again, XOM doesn't do something to put a fire under the E&P group all that often. Although they've been the subject of constant rumors since their purchase of Mobil in 1999 the direction this acquisition was different than what I would have thought (gassy and in North America). Note that while it helped the gassy upstream group and the Service sector, big integrated oil, as represented by the XOI gave a shoulder shrug to the deal with XOM retreating slightly and CVX and COP slipping as well since everyone wants to know how those firms will answer the move. Note that Big Oil has not been the place to be all year long. Maybe next year (more on that in the year end projection piece due out in a couple of weeks).

2) Natural Gas Saw Monster Draw - Look For More Big Numbers For The Two Weeks. See Friday's post for more comments on gas and gas storage. We should get a sizable draw this week as well although it shouldn't be quite as big as Thursday's 207 Bcf record draw. Storage is still more than well supplied and further gains to the upside should be limited, if not in magnitude, then in duration. More on this in the Monday post.


3) Oil Had A Similarly Interesting Week As We Finally Saw An Uptick in Distillate Demand. Finally, finally, finally, we saw a noticeable uptick in distillate demand resulting in a larger than expected withdrawal from storage. Don't get me wrong, distillate storage is still quite bloated but the trend is improving and should continue to through at least mid January. OPEC meets next week and the Cartel is more than likely to leave things alone at this time, getting less done at their meeting than the delegates at COP 15 did at theirs.

The Wrap Table:

Bit of a ho-hum weak despite all the volatility. Wrap comments will be incorporated into the Monday post.


Closed Trades Last Week:

  • WLL – Sold the (10) December $65 calls for $3.20, up 66%. Will reposition on pullback.
  • WLL – Sold the $60 December Calls (WLLLL) for $6.70, up 85%. I continue to hold the $65 December calls.

Holdings Watch:

$10KP II:   (Wrap for 10/16/09)

  • $36,000
  • 75% Cash

Last Week's Close And Expired Trades

  • HK – Sold (20), which is all, of the HK $25 October Calls (HKJE) for $1.35, up 228% with the stock at $26.20.
  • NFX – Sold 15 of 20 NFX October $45 calls (NFXJI) for $1.95, up 63%. Still raising a little cash.
  • Sold 100 of the HK $26 Calls for $0.55, up 128% to my average cost.
  • SWN – Sold the last (15) SWN October $45 calls for $1.25, up 245%, with the stock at $46. I may add to the November position started yesterday in a little while.
  • NFX – Sold the remaining October $45 calls for $2.80, up 151%.
  • WLL – Sold all 20 contracts of the October $60 calls (WLLJL) for $1.95, up 64%. I continue to hold the November $65 calls.
  • SWN – $47 Nov Calls sold for $4.20, up 107%
  • Out on 15 BEXP Oct $10s for $0.20, down 67%.
  • Small October Call positions in TSO, APC, and SD expired worthless

Wrap comments will be incorporated into the Monday post.

 

 

$10KP II:  (as of 10/9/09) - Due To A Change In Platform Software, the Weekend Wrap will be a subscribers only feature for awhile. To view all new posts you will need to be logged in.

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II: $27,800  (the $10KP II portfolio commenced trading 8/24/09 with $10,000)
  • 62% Cash
  • The Current Holdings Tab has been updated.
  • The $10KP II Spread Sheet Tab has been updated.

Week of 10/09/09 Closed Trades:

  • KWK – Sold the KWK $15 October calls (KWKJC) for $0.45, up 69%, with the stock at $14.50.
  • HK – Sold the (20) HK $24 Calls picked up yesterday at $0.45 for $0.75 on the mid with the stock holding at $23.90.
  • EOG – Half out $85 Calls for $2.50, up 72%.

  • WLL – Sold the $55 October calls for $4.90, up 58%.

  • WLL – Sold the (10) $60 calls taken yesterday for a buck for $2 with the stock at $60.70.

  • HK – Sold half (15) of the HK $24 calls for $1.15 (on the mid and easily with the stock at $24.82), up 124%.

  • SWN – Sold half of this one as well, out on (15) October $45 calls for $1.05, up 62% with the stock at $44.65, up 4% on the day.

  • EOG – Out of the remaining (5) EOG $85 October calls, (EOGJQ), for $4.40, up 198% with the stock sitting just under $89.

  • ROSE – Sold the (5) November $12.50s for $4.20, up 46%. No knock on the stock but I don’t like how thin this particular strike was. I will likely reposition into November $17.50s or something similar before earnings. I continue to hold the common in the ZLT.

  • HK – Sold the remaining (15) HK $24 October Calls (HKJO) for $1.45, up 214%, easily on the mid with the stock at $25.22.

as of 9/25/09

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP: $15,000
  • 40% Cash

Last Week's Closed Trades:  (9/21 to 9/25)

  • DPTR – Sold 50 (all) of the $2 October Puts (QHRVI) for $0.30, up 86%, with the stock falling through $2.
  • DPTR – Sold the $3 Puts (QHRVJ) for $0.90, up 46%, on the mid with the stock stuck at $2.25. I continue to hold 50 of the $2 strike puts.
  • APC – Sold (10 – all) of the APC October $65 Calls for $2.55, up 40% to my average cost.
  • HAL – Sold my $27.50 puts for $1.37, up 12%.

 

$10KP II:  (as of 9/18/09) - Due To A Change In Platform Software, the Weekend Wrap will be a subscribers only feature for awhile. To view all new posts you will need to be logged in.

  • $18,600
  • 73% cash
  • 3% in puts
  • The Current Holdings tab is updated.
  • I will update the $10KP II tab again for Monday.

Last Weeks Closed Trades:

  • HK – Half out HK $24 September calls (HKIO) for $0.65, up 21%,
  • HK – Sold last 20 HK $24 Calls (HKIO) for $0.95, up 76%,
  • The HK $26 September calls expired worthless,
  • KWK $12.50 calls (KWKIV) sold for $1.25, up 103%,
  • EOG – Sold half (5 of 10) October $85 Calls (EOGJQ) for $2.45, up 79%,
  • EOG – Sold all 25 of the September $80 Calls (EOGIP) for $0.90, up 15%,
  • WLL – Out second half of September $50 calls for $5.80, up 440%,
  • SWN – Sold the September $36 Call position (TKQIY) for $5.60, up 273%,
  • NFX – Out of my 10 NFX $40 September Calls (NFXIH) for $4.10, up 103%.
  • The HAL September puts expired worthless.

 

 

Holdings Watch: (as of 9/11/09)

  • $10KP II

    • $13,700
    • 33% Cash


Closed Positions For The Week Ended 9/11/09:

  • BEXP – Sold the BEXP September $7.50 calls (QBJIU) for $1.60, up 205% with the stock at $9.08. I continue to hold the common stock here.
  • WLL – Sold half of my September $50 calls (WLLIJ) for $6.30 (on the mid), up 435% with the stock at $56.20.
  • CLR – Sold half of my September $40 calls (CLRIH) for $3.50, up 74%, with the stock at $43.20.
  • CLR – Sold the second half of my position in the September $40 Calls, (CLRIH) for $4.00, up 98%, with the stock at $43.70.CLR – Sold the second half of my position in the September $40 Calls, (CLRIH) for $4.00, up 98%, with the stock at $43.70.

UPDATE - Due To A Change In Platform Software, the Weekend Wrap will be a subscribers only feature for awhile. To view all new posts you will need to be logged in.

 

It was pretty much a throw away week but there were a few highlights:

  • Markets lacked direction and volumes outside of a few highly traded names in the financials. Talking heads continued to call for a market top and a substantial correction based on the run we've had, the weakish recovery signals and the time of year.
  • Economic data was mostly on the positive side with higher consumer confidence and home prices helping markets feel their way forward in this jobless "recovery".
  • Oil fought off a move into the $60s after the October contract hit $75 and went into profit taking mode for a couple of days. Demand data here are starting to pick up from a "total products supplied standpoint"
  • Meanwhile, natural gas deteriorated for the second week on an "in line" storage number, little threat of tropical action, and supply data for June which continue to show little deterioration despite the fact that gas rig activity peaked way back in September 2008.
  • The Natural Gas Supply Slide Show will be included in the Monday post. 
  • Newfield fired off the first voluntary gas supply curtailment announcement by a good sized company of the season while reiterating that they will still come in towards the high end of their prior volume guidance. Can you say Granite Wash = Big Kahuna. Interesting, cheap name whose time for respect is coming as they have a better than usual reserve replacement year and as they approach initial production from 5 deepwater development projects in 2010.
  • Expect to see more natural gas production curtailments in coming weeks.
  • Otherwise, news in the energy world was scarce and largely irrelevant. ATPG had an investor day and I'm still working my thoughts on that one, a little more slowly since it has had a good run. News flow should begin to pickup with the advent of Fall and we should see some pre earnings pr's of substance soonish.
  • .... more in a bit .;..

Holdings Watch:

  • $10KP II: $6,300 / 36% Cash. The spreadsheet will be updated by Sunday night.
  • No closed trades this week.
  • We did add more (KOG) to the ZLT.

 

4 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/8/10”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    94L – worth watching:

    http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atlantic/invest94/modelsmap_zoom1.html

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    94L – spinning now:

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

  3. 3
    West Says:

    KOG: Here is a good link for those with an interest in the Rez lands and KOG’ play. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/tribalenergy/guide/pdfs/fort_berthold.pdf….and http://www.adv-res.com/pdf/Identifying%20Oil%20Exploration%20Leads%20-%20Fort%20Berthold%20Final%20Report,%20July%202004.pdf..KOG should report their wells either Monday or Tuesday and I wouldn’t expect anything more than a press release from the Co. The Co probably continues their recent history of not hyping well completion data. Of course there may be many who would wish for a bit more rah rah from the Co with these announcements. Studying BEXP recent presentation and reviewing production history for wells from NDIC, the large mutli-stage fracs of the long laterals is increasing production and EURs in the Bkn/3Fks. So KOG’s wells will and have been dependent on the success of the mutli-stage completions. A brief review of KOG’s production shows that their Mocassin Creek wells that have had less than successful completion of all stages of the frac have had less initial production and total production during the same time period. Of course we have very limited data for KOG but BEXP has about 8 months production to compare and the difference is significant. In the case of KOG’s MC 16-34-2H that had a frac problem and not all stages were put away, total production reported 14,266 bo and 8597 mcf for 64 days. The offset well MC 16-34H has produced 20,375 bo and 11,377 mcf for 51 days. Both of the MC wells were around 4150′. Also remember that KOG’s long lateral ( 8,995′) to the North, TSB 116-8-16H, did not successfully get all the stages off during the completion process. The hope here is that KOG is successful in completing all stages of their multi-stage fracs on TSB 14-33-28H and 14-33-6H. Of course I would be remise if I did not say that not everyone holds the same view as me concerning the mutli-stage fracs so here is a link to bakken shale group discussion site for review and other opinions. http://groups.google.com/group/bakken-shale-discussion/browse_thread/thread/bdeb2aa9cae1925f#…… On KOG’s well CE 1-22-10H south of the River good gas flares and oil shows were reported during drlg. Of course this doesn’t say what the ultimate well may produce but these shows are good shows which means that we are not right on the edge of the oil /water contact zone or magic line. I view this as a very positive development but I would not expect much from KOG mgmt until the well is completed which is the correct action to pursue. Also all wells on this side of the River are closer to the gas line that is hooked up in the MRO section of the Bailey Field. As soon as they are able to start hooking up wells to gaslines instead of flaring this is going to give them additional proved reserves immediately….Discloser: I own a position in KOG.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks West. Your comment has been added to the KOG reports link.

    Shanghai down 4%

    Oil and gas were both up early, now flat to slight down.

    94L continues to look like it will turn into something more organized by Tuesday.

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