10
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/09/09

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Holdings Watch: Groups have been acting a little better even after crude shrank away from the too far too fast move to $50 earlier this week. A somber close to the week on jobs data masked more constructive moves and reactions to, wait for it, news items. Started doing a little more buying mid week including a little heavier position in the solars. Closed trades for the week.

  • SU - Sold half of the SU $22.50 January Calls (SXHAX) for $1.70, up 312% since entry on 12/29.
  •  SU - Sold another quarter of my SU Jan $22.50 call position for $2.50, up 506% as oil started to ease on Wednesday.

On to the wrap...

 

ZComments:

  1.  Energy Vs The Broad Market. Surprising "in line" performance despite the pull back in crude. Charts are looking constructive in E&P, oil service, refining. and even coal. Of note is oil service which continues to outperform despite the rapidly falling rig count and signs that things will get worse before they get better.
  2. Products Beat Crude Last Week. It stands to reason that since gasoline and heating oil didn't keep up with the late December / early January run to $50 on  crude, that they would at least not share equally in the retreat. Also, the number of refiners joining the chorus of voices say, "there is no law that requires me to produce at a loss" continues to swell and while gasoline is over-stored at present it is not building as fast as it usually does this time of year in advance of the Spring maintenance cycle. I'll be looking at the refiners again only after the crack bounce in late 4Q proves not to be a headfake.
  3. Net Crude Position Goes Long. I don't think its of much value yet but interesting to note after a sharp reversal and after having been short for much of the last part of 2008.
  4. Gas In Storage Remains Bloated. We went into positive YoY storage with this past week's report. I continue to see range bound trading for the next month or two until we start to see signs that the key growth regions are rolling over. See last Friday's post for  more gas storage and gas price comments.
  5. Dry Bulk Bounce Back. I've been asleep at the wheel in this space, other than making the comment that at some point trade would start up again and the stocks would bounce. This rally feels a bit premature. See next Monday's post for new thoughts here.

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6 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 1/09/09”

  1. 1
    nifkin Says:

    GS Energy Conference: Jan 14th- 15th- Florida
    Wednesday: BBG, EPD, STR, UPL, SII, TS, WFT, COP, MUR, OXY, PBR, CAM, DRC, FMC, NOVV, APA, DVN, TLM, BJS, NBR, EP, KGS, SD, SWN, BAS, HP, PDS.
    Thursday: CNQ, ENB, NXY, ATW, DO, RIG, CHK, EOG, XTO, HOC, MRO, SUN, TSO, NE, PDE, ME, NBL, NFX, PXD, HERO, HOS, RDC, BRY, CBT, EAC.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nifkin. Busy week for energy conferences with Pritchard Capital Energize conference on the 14th as well

  3. 3
    rseidman Says:

    Z: When do you update subscriber data? ZEB performance, and 10KP?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Subcriber data tabs get updated whenever something new is done in the post that pertains to one of them so refiners, E&P tab etc when those subjects get are mentioned. Is there something specific you are looking for? As to ZEB perf and 10KP I’ve gotten behind on the spread sheets of late as my back office is on maternity leave. I’ve been keeping the Wiki active with the current holdings.

  5. 5
    rseidman Says:

    My question only concerned ZEB perf and 10KP.

    No problem

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Gotcha, will update both this week. The wiki is live. The 10KP is going to be recapitalized this week as it had a bad early December.

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