19
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/17/08

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Holdings Watch: Last week we introduced the $10,000 Portfolio. We ended the week 56% in cash and slightly positive with one position opened and closed during the week and a number other positions spread across several energy sub-sectors.

  • CHK October $20 calls bought for $0.40 during the company's analyst day with the stock around $17 and sold on Friday (and a little early I might add but that's a problem to have) at $0.65 for a 63% gain.

In the general portfolio we had a number of positions that were bought prior to the market malaise and which expired worthless. Sentiment remains very cautious but as you can see from the $10KP (subcribers only)  tab I'm starting to slowly bottom fish the cheapest of the cheap names and the stalwarts with overly low leverage and high historical adherence to capital spending discipline.

On To The Wrap:

1) Commodity Watch: Another down week for commodities with only natural gas stemming the red tide. I've been warming to gas for a few weeks now but have not yet pulled the trigger on an UNG ETF trade. 

2) Energy Stocks more than rebounded with the broad markets. Yes, things are very cheap. Estimates are coming down as analysts continually mark to market the E&Ps to a 10 to 20% discount on the forward strips in many cases. There is still more damage to come to those estimates as they catch to the plummet in oil over the last two weeks but bias may be shifting to a less panic driven climate. OPEC will likely take 1 mm bopd plus off the market this week and colder weather will lend support to natural gas and the stocks are oversold to say the least.  If many of the mid and smaller names don't move up as the credit markets unfreeze consolidation activity should finally start to creep in as well as its a lot easier to drill for oil on Wall Street right now than in the field.

3) See This Week's Posts Watch: For some thoughts on MLP's, long term common stock plays, the earnings calendar and quarterly summaries and all the usual stuff.

3 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 10/17/08”

  1. 1
    elduque Says:

    OK I’ll bite. Where do I find this week’s post watch.

  2. 2
    krishna Says:

    Z,
    Please cleanup the holdings wiki. Also could you post 10kp in text format on holding wiki or somewhere else.

  3. 3
    calvo Says:

    ..Z, thanks for including the CFTC data on crude!

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