13
Oct

Dead Cat Bounce Monday Morning Madness

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Sentiment Watch: Do or Slide Time for the Markets. I don't trust the early moves and see no reason to pick the bottom. For nimble traders there will be an opportunity for some quick profits in the more well known names but the possibility of yet another headfake high open and lower close is still high. To me, the market feels ready for a small to medium sized bounce but we are a ways from really starting to sort out individual stories and will remain in all red or all green on your screen trading patterns for the time being.

Stalwart names in the energy groups like un-levered (XOM) which is going to only see a slight reduction in earnings power next year at the current oil and gas strip will be the first area of interest for investors seeking exposure to the group. Not that "incredibly cheap" matters right now but at 6.9x trailing and foward earnings with no debt and never an intention of growing volumes in the U.S., well, that may be just too cheap to ignore for long. (CVX) is essentially debt free as well among the majors and trades at an even more "end of the world as we know it" 5.0x forward numbers.

Other, more indebted stalwarts in the E&P realm, like (CHK) will be given a chance to explain themselves to the degree that even a 5 year old can grasp their inner workings (this is not Enron folks no matter how hard some analysts and fund managers would tell you that their math is to grasp.  See my thoughts on all the goings on at CHK here.

I'm warming more to EOG these days as their deep prospect inventory and lack of leverage can better weather a protracted flatlining of commodity prices however, their smaller hedge position will mean larger adjustments to CFPS estimates should gas prices remain at depressed (sub $8 levels) well into to 2009. I  expect them to announce a reduced budget shortly, no later than 3Q earnings on 11/4.

See the weekend wrap here ... lots of good discussion regarding the financial meltdown from the gang.



In Today's Post

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today Watch
  4. Odds & Ends

 

Holdings Watch: Very quiet week last week. Keeping remaining powder very dry for a time as buying stocks has more to do with a bet on Paulson than investiment in the fundamental stories. Last week felt like Russian Roullette with worse odds.

Commodity Watch:

Crude oil fell a whopping 17% last week to close at $77.70, a one year low. Hope from the G7 meeting has prompted a $4+ rally this morning.

  • The dollar is reversing and falling away from recent highs as Europe seems to be moving faster than the U.S. in its efforts to unfreeze the credit markets.
  • Goldman Chops Oil Price Forecast:
    • 4Q08 cut to $75 a barrel from $110,
    • its year-end target to got to $70  from
      $115,
    • 2009 gets whacked to $86 from $123
    • 2009 year end now seen at $107 from a prior $125
    •  ``We clearly underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial crisis and its implications on economic growth and commodity demand,'' the analysts wrote in the report.

Natural gas fell 11% to $6.53 last week. See last Thursday's post for gas comments regarding the bottoming feature and yesterday's comments regarding the growing move to cut capex and its impact on production. In a nutshell, the gas glut everyone has been overly fearful of next year has been delivered a low blow in the form of deeper than expected drilling budget cuts which will send the gas-directed rig count tumbling. Instead of one cut and then wait and see the inability to finance short term will yield multiple rounds of capital budget reductions. This morning gas is trading up a dime plus but that is simply a response to the boost in oil. I look for gas to begin outperforming in coming weeks however things do need to settle down a bit before I attempt an (UNG) trade.

  • Weather Watch: Gas-population weighted heating degree days rose again to 43, nearly double year ago levels. This should provide a bit of a rollover in gas injections but nothing to get excited about just year.  Looking ahead  the Western U.S. is expected to be cooler than normal this week but not overly so and the eastern seaboard is expected to be somewhat warm. We need to see a firmer cooling trend move into position before I really warm to the (UNG) trade as injections will be above and to the right of normal without cold weather now. 

 

  • Tropics: Tropical Storm Nana formed mid Atlantic but does not look threatening. Another depression in the Carribbean Sea looks more than likely to head north away from the Gulf.  Season continues to appear to be winding down early but you never know.

Stuff We Care About Today:

Balance Sheet Watch: Not yet finished, will have it for the Tuesday post. I honestly don't think there is a huge rush as fundamentals don't matter yet.

BPZ Oil Discovery. By the way, these guys changed their ticker to match their name last week.

  • CX11-20XD well discovered oil offshore northwest Peru in Block Z-1 in the Corvina field
  • 10,268 bopd from two of four discovered sands, nice rate with no water produced
  • My initial write up can be seen here. You'll note in that piece the recompletion of this well was projected to yield incremental produciton of 2,000 bopd, not the 10,000 bopd tested. Also note their margins in that piece
  • This well was about 4 months behind original plan as well due to difficulties during drilling but that's water under the bridge given the rate.
  • Next well in the project, the 15D will spud after the rig is moved.
  • Street consensus numbers will be coming up. At a current $2.69 projected CFPS and $10 stock price BPZ is overly cheap with the stock having fallen from recent highs in the upper $20s.
  • I did see these guys at IPAA last week and was impressed with management's ability to present.
  • Debt here is just about $0.
  • I'll have an update piece out here later this week.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: Bernstein raises (ECA) and (DVN) to Outperform, Goldman ups (NE) to Buy, JPM cuts (DO) to underweight from overweight, (VLO) and (SU) cut to Hold at Deutsche.

 

 

89 Responses to “Dead Cat Bounce Monday Morning Madness”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Dman – in answer to your query re knockouts, yes, during that month, not for the whole quarter.

    Elwo – Not sure how he’s getting to $3.5 billion but best guess is he’s taking capex and subtracting from it cash flow adjusted for all of the knockout swaps being triggered and also assuming that the asset sales, VPP, and marketing of the midstream interest sale do not occur. The armageddon option.

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    By Nick Heath
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON (Dow Jones)–Nymex light, sweet crude futures traded over $4 higher in
    early European trade Monday after financial market sentiment was bolstered by a
    step-up in global leaders’ efforts to shore up global financial markets.
    Crude prices followed equity markets’ positive response to an agreement of
    Euro-zone heads of state on a plan that will allow member states to buy stakes
    in ailing banks and guarantee interbank lending, and to support from financial
    leaders from around the world to a Group of Seven leading industrial nations
    plan to contain the financial crisis.
    Analysts suggested stock markets were likely to continue to provide direction
    for crude prices in coming sessions, despite concerns that demand for crude oil
    will slow amid a worsening economic growth outlook.
    “Equities will remain the leading indicator for a few more days until oil
    economics can start to prevail again,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of
    Swiss consultancy Petromatrix.
    At 1113 GMT, the front-month November Brent contract on London’s ICE futures
    exchange was up $3.26 at $77.35 a barrel.
    The front-month November light, sweet, crude contract on the New York
    Mercantile Exchange was trading $3.47 higher at $81.17 a barrel.
    The ICE’s gasoil contract for November delivery was up $21.75 at $745.50 a
    metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for November delivery was up 770 points at
    188.40 cents a gallon.
    While moves to inject some stability into the banking sector and the wider
    financial markets may have helped ease fears of further market turmoil,
    analysts suggested that the outlook for global economic growth, and an
    accompanying appetite for crude, remains bleak.
    “The worst may not happen. But what it means is that is doesn’t get any worse
    from here, but it doesn’t mean that it gets any better. The world economy is
    going to be struggling – that’s going to take a lot of demand growth out of the
    equation,” said Simon Wardell, analyst at Global Insight in London.
    Expectations for lower demand led analysts at Goldman Sachs to cut their
    forecast for fourth-quarter West Texas Intermediate crude oil to $75 a barrel
    from $110 a barrel Monday and revise their year-end target to $70 a barrel from
    $115 a barrel.
    “We clearly underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial
    crisis and its implications on economic growth and commodity demand,” they
    said, and warned that should the financial and evolving economic crisis cut
    deeper into demand, the market could fall as low as $50 a barrel.
    With the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries facing both a sharp
    fall in crude prices and the prospect of lower consumption, market participants
    now increasingly expect OPEC members, which pump about 40% of the world’s oil,
    to declare a reduction in output when they gather for an emergency meeting Nov.
    18.
    “An OPEC cut is starting to be priced (in), the uncertainty being only on the
    size of the cut,” said Petromatrix’s Jakob. Poor demand and low refining
    margins already translate into a lower call on OPEC crude oil he said, although
    an OPEC production decision will also have to take into consideration the
    impact of the current financial crisis, he said.
    Qatar’s oil minister said Sunday that OPEC faces a “difficult” decision
    whether to cut output at its emergency meeting in November amid fear that a
    global economic recession will hit demand.
    “This is a very difficult situation for all the world and not just OPEC,”
    Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah told Dow Jones Newswires Sunday.
    -By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires; (Andrew Critchlow in Dubai and Roshanak Taghavi in Tehran contributed to this
    item)

    Dow Jones Newswires
    10-13-08 0736ET

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Headsup play for the month of September has to go to CHK for maxing the revolver and slamming the cash into Tbills. Like maxing a credit card right before they take it away. What good is a line of credit if the counterparties won’t fulfill their obligation?

  4. 4
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #3 – Thanks, z. That is why we say “this isn’t about the stock market, it’s about the credit market.” Until credit gets fixed (whatever that means), daily business and operations take a back seat to fears about…. well, basically everything!

    Too bad the US bond mrkt is closed today. We need to see the impact of this weekend’s actions on bond spreads and flow. We’ll have that tomorrow. Until then, still feels like Russian Roulette to me.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Bird – the bond market being closed could mean the move in the equity market could last a whole whopping 24 hours, LOL.

    Dollar down 2.2%. About time.

  6. 6
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    One thing that can help the bond/credit markets, however, is a sustained rally in stocks. We are at the point where fear has precipitated a run on the banks and most of the bond market damage over the last 3 weeks was due to psychology, not reality. So, if the stock market rallies and makes traders/depositors/money market funds/company treasurers “feel” better, that will turn things around.

    We are in the midst of a crisis in confidence. What is most needed at this point, is to calm down and regain some of the confidence.

    Admitidly, once lost, confidence is tough to regain. But a healthy rally in stocks (or just stopping the massive selloffs) should bring a bit of “greed” back into the mrkt. That would be a good thing, at this point.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Nice, almost silly sized open. If I were to play and I’m not at this point, I’d wait for the inevitable post open pullback.

    CHK up 18%, HK up 23% etc…

  8. 8
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    VIX at 71.42 suggests it will be tough to hold onto these gains. But, nice to see the green.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Bird – already seeing some slippage. We need multiple days of slight up green and not the 20% fools gold rush gains of this morning. Agreed though, nice to know I don’t have to swap out all these monitors that were only functioning in monochromatic red mode.

  10. 10
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    wow. VIX just step-functioned down to 64.76. That’s better.

  11. 11
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    frankly, it’s a good day just to turn off your screens and do some quiet reading. Today’s stock mrkt action isn’t going to mean a whole lot. Tomorrow will be key, when the bond mrkts reopen for biz.

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – are knockout swaps common? who else uses them to the degree CHK does?

  13. 13
    Sambone Says:

    By Gregory Meyer
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Oil prices traded above $81 a barrel on Monday as market
    sentiment brightened on U.S. and European efforts to bolster the banking
    system.
    Light, sweet crude for November delivery was recently up$4.04, or 5.2%, at
    $81.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE
    Futures exchange rose $3.81 to $77.90 a barrel.
    Crude is still down nearly $20 since September, hit by a combination of poor
    demand growth and widespread fears of a global recession. Oil prices have moved
    in close alignment with stock markets. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial
    Average lost 18.2%.
    “Clearly, we’re following these equities,” said Peter Donovan, vice president
    at Vantage Trading in New York. “If the equities come in and get clobbered
    again, I can tell you we will not be up $4.”
    The DJIA on Monday opened more than 426 points, or 5%, higher as government
    agreements to support the banking system restored some confidence.
    In Paris, leaders of the 15 euro-zone countries agreed to an action plan that
    will guarantee loans between banks through 2009 and allow governments to buy
    stock in distressed financial companies. On Monday, the European Central Bank,
    the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank said they would lend unlimited
    amounts of dollars to banks.
    Australia has guaranteed wholesale funding for banks. Britain said it would
    inject as much as $63 billion into three banks, and Germany made its own
    announcement of a recapitalization plan.
    The U.S. Treasury Department is working on a plan to inject capital directly
    into banks.
    “The tepid response by oil traders is pointing to concerns that, despite the
    efforts of the world’s central bankers, recession is at hand for the
    industrialized economies and a prolonged downturn in oil demand may be
    unavoidable,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at brokerage
    Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., in a note to clients.
    Oil’s swift decline has taken many observers by surprise. Goldman Sachs on
    Monday slashed its fourth-quarter forecast for crude oil by about 32%, to $75 a
    barrel from $110, citing an unprecedented global financial crisis.
    “We clearly underestimated the depth and duration of the global financial
    crisis and its implications on economic growth and commodity demand,” the bank
    said. “The timing of the trough, however, remains highly uncertain as credit
    issues have created significant distortions in demand and production, inventory
    management and pricing across the supply chain.”
    Traders are also watching statements from the Organization of Petroleum
    Exporting Countries, which has scheduled a special meeting next month to
    address production.
    Qatar’s oil minister said Sunday that OPEC faces a “difficult” decision
    whether to cut output at the meeting in November amid fear that a global
    economic recession will hit demand.
    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 8.28
    cents, or 4.6% to $1.8898 a gallon. November heating oil rose 11.83 cents, or
    5.4%, to $2.3283 a gallon.

    -By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires
    Dow Jones Newswires
    10-13-08 0949ET

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    They are pretty common. Unknown on the second question. Despite Loomis dude’s opinion, CHK has better disclosure than almost all E&P’s.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    14 mm shares CHK so far. I will try to get a very ball park handle on Aubrey’s monthly cash flow from his well participation program. Without know the rest of his financial picture it will be hard to judge when he will start buying but knowing the cash flow could give us an idea of how much he could buy in an opening salvo. I’d bet he starts in the next month or two but again, don’t know how damaged he is. He does own half of Oklahoma’s real estate and still holds 1.9 mm shares of CHK so he’s not exactly broke.

  16. 16
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    it just seems to me that “knockout swaps” rather defeat the purpose of hedging. At the point where you need the protection the most, you dont’ have it. I can understand “why” a company would chose to use them (cheaper), but it seems like a rather lousy form of insurance to me.

    Of course, when times are good, no one thinks about the downside. Like all those “pick-toggle” high yield bonds that were issued in 2006-2007. Portfolio Managers who bought those just didn’t have their heads screwed on right.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Deutsche Bank sees gulf coast refiners suffering compared to mid-west refiners. Thesis goes decline in Mexican and Venezuelan heavy oil volumes and an increase in supply from Canada will favor mid-west refiners (like FTO, HOC and MRO). This is a bit of a late call on the former and not proven on the Canadian side. I see Canada backing off production at these oil prices.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Bird – not just cheaper but also to get the deal done. CHK produces over 2 Bcfgpd so to get the counterparties to sign off you have to limit their downside.

  19. 19
    Bleemus Says:

    Update from my friend who works at XOM refinery in Beaumont.

    “we got 3 of my 8 units up last nite”

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bleemus, that’ll contribute to oversupply on gas. By the way, paid $2.99 over the weekend. Economy may be circling the drain but that should inspire people to top off their tanks.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Howard Weil cuts CHK to Market Perf from Outperform.

  22. 22
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Howard Weil just cut CHK from mrkt outperf ==> mrkt perf. no price target given.

  23. 23
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    ha!

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Weil is pretty good, although its not obvious in this case. They are also pretty nimble so if concerns are alleviated at the 2 day conference this week you can expect them to jack their rating back up.

  25. 25
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    whoever bought those $11.99 shares of CHK must be quite pleased with themselves today. It was a brave call… and a good one.

  26. 26
    Popeye Says:

    Quite pleased with those $9 HK shares I bought on fri. So far that is.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Mark Lestor, EVP at CHK bought as low as $12.50 on Friday.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Hear ya Pop, nice one.

  29. 29
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    interesting that CHK allowed insider transactions, considering Aubrey put out that PR after close on Friday…

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Hear ya Bird, he’s EVP of Exploration so he may not have been in the PR loop. It’s just 10,000 shares which compared to the 370K he already owned is only pretty light although to the SEC that would not matter. I’d guess he was not privy.

    I also expect to see a wave of frivolous class action lawsuits filed here and at other E&Ps soon. Its what securities lawyers do during times like this. I don’t expect them to hold a shred of merit but they can bump the stock down some which would get me off my hands and owning more. In any event, I plan to trade it long later this week.

  31. 31
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    If he’s a Form 4 reporting entity, he would be subject to all that stuff, i would think. Personally, i don’t care. But, I don’t think the SEC likes to see that sort of thing. (and the SEC likes to pick at the small stuff these days, while ignoring the fires raging in Rome.)

    Good point about all the class-action ambulance chasers lining up. Legalized blackmail, for the most part.

  32. 32
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs GS said in a
    commodities research note Monday it was lowering its U.S. and
    UK natural gas price forecasts on the back of downward
    revisions to its oil and coal outlooks.
    “We are lowering our UK NBP price forecast through March
    2010, as well as our 2008/2009 winter U.S. natural gas forecast
    as current credit constraints have exacerbated the global
    economic slowdown and have significantly damaged the current
    and forward oil demand outlook,” the note said.
    The lower oil prices led Goldman to revise down its UK NBP
    prices, which are arbitraged against the (oil-indexed) European
    Continental prices.
    Goldman said it lowered its 2008/2009 winter, 2009 summer
    and 2009/2010 winter UK NBP prices to $15.35 per million British
    thermal units, $10.60/mmBtu and $14.20/mmBtu, respectively.
    Goldman also lowered its 2008/2009 winter NYMEX natural gas
    forecast to $7.60/mmBtu, from $9.50/mmBtu previously.
    “In the event of an inventory stock out in the winter, NYMEX
    natural gas prices would have to move up to residual fuel oil
    prices in order to reduce demand, and these prices have been
    downgraded as well as the rest of the oil complex, thereby
    lowering the upside to natural gas prices,” the note said.
    Goldman said it still expects summer 2009 NYMEX natural gas
    to price at parity with coal, but at lower levels.
    “We still expect US natural gas to price at parity with
    Appalachian coal during summer 2009 in order to incentivize
    coal-to-gas fuel substitution and rebalance the market.
    However, Goldman Sachs JB Were has just downgraded their
    Newcastle (thermal) coal price forecast for 2009, on which we
    base our Appalachian coal price expectations, in response to
    softer European demand for coal.”
    The natural gas price parity with coal is now expected to
    take place at $7.30/mmBtu, the note said.
    NYMEX front-month November natural gas futures were
    trading in the $6.70/mmBtu area early Monday, sliding from a
    high of $8.32/mmBtu in mid-September, as concerns over damage
    and shut-in Gulf of Mexico production in the wake of hurricanes
    Gustav and Ike waned.
    British gas prices for November delivery, meanwhile, were
    trading in the $12.80/mmBtu area Monday.
    (Reporting by Eileen Moustakis, editing by Matthew Lewis)

    Mon Oct 13 14:43:49 2008

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sam…had not seen the revision to NG prices.

    Seems to me Goldman is taking the opportunity to wipe the slate clean and low enough that it can easily get more aggressive in the future. Staying at their old oil and gas prices only served to handicap the credibility of their individual stock calls.

  34. 34
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    a few corporate bonds are trading. for the most part, they are up quite nicely, 3-4 points. Huge moves for bonds.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Once again, nice trade to Popeye with a 33% bounce in HK common today. Also goes to the all green or all red of this type of market. Everything green and up an average of 10% but with the biggest news of the day probably at BPZ where the gains are “only” 8%.

  36. 36
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) – Tropical Depression 15 formed in
    the Caribbean and will likely strengthen into a tropical storm but
    will not threaten the oil-rich Gulf of Mexico as it moves toward the
    Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Monday.
    The depression, which is packing winds near 35 miles per hour
    (56 kph), could strengthen into Tropical Storm Omar, with winds of
    39 to 73 mph, later Monday as it moves northeast toward Puerto Rico
    and the Virgin Islands, the NHC forecast.
    After crossing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Wednesday,
    the system will likely strengthen into a hurricane, with winds over
    74 mph, on Thursday.
    It was located about 340 miles (547 km) southwest of San Juan,
    Puerto Rico and about 175 miles north-northwest of Curacao, the NHC
    said in its 11 a.m. EDT report.
    Energy traders watch for storms that could enter the Gulf of
    Mexico and threaten oil and gas production facilities.
    Commodities traders likewise watch storms that could hit
    agriculture crops such as citrus and cotton in Florida and other
    states along the Gulf Coast to Texas.

    NO WORRY ABOUT NANA
    Tropical Storm Nana, meanwhile, weakened to a tropical
    depression in the Atlantic about 1,050 miles west of the Cape Verde
    Islands.
    The NHC expected Nana to remain no threat to land as it
    dissipates over the next 48 hours.
    (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

    Mon Oct 13 15:17:52 2008

  37. 37
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    HK… can’t recall seeing a $3B market cap company swing up almost 60% (from Friday’s lows) in one day. Not without some sort of M&A announcement. This really is blood-on-the-streets time.

    Very nice buy, Popeye.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Hear ya on that Bird. Potential buyers need to get their ducks in a row pretty quick now.

    Nice move in the BEXP too.

  39. 39
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – yep. both BEXP and GEOI too. But, those kinds of swings occassionally happen in micro-caps. To see the swing in HK is a 6-sigma event.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Bird – gotta be a big short rally involved there.

  41. 41
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – agreed, as it’s the only thing that makes sense. however, it’s still a $3B mrkt cap company… so, one heck of a short-squeeze.

    Unfortunately, we are not out of the woods. Hearing 2010 will probably be a good year, tho. So, a little something to look forward to.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    SLB – this is the kind of move I am apprehensive of. Open at $65, $4.50 and fade all the way to flat now.

  43. 43
    ddaley Says:

    Tater and Z,
    Thanks your take on CHK, and the warning that 20 is a sell point.
    Monday’s pivots:
    R3 24.54
    R2 21.12
    R1 18.82
    PP 15.4
    S1 13.10
    S2 9.68
    S3 7.38
    Any guesses on exp pinning? 15,17.5, 20?
    Or are things so fluid that it is wide open?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    DD – Re CHK. The later re pinning points. With 2 long days of explanations and then analyst comments I could see the stock in a range of $10 (although I really doubt it) up to $30 this week.

  45. 45
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Therefore, are you mulling a short term play in CHK?

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Ram – I am but I want to hear what they have to say and see/hear how the analysts badger them on the conference call. We are off so far from the highs that if people start sounding the all’s clear, eighths and quarters won’t matter.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    … and to add to that, I may do a small play in front of the call on a pullback as no doubt we will have shifting sentiment prior to the Wednesday meeting as it starts rather late in the day.

  48. 48
    ram Says:

    O.K. thanks.

  49. 49
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – if i am reading HK’s hedging table correctly, they have over 60% of 2008 and 2009 production hedged. But, I don’t see any knockout swaps listed. Just swaps, collars, and floors. So, their hedges don’t go worthless at some low nat gas price, correct?

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Bird – On the surface that appears true. I have never heard them mention knockouts but they may indeed be there. Not everyone discloses every aspect of their hedges so I just don’t know the answer to that.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    I’ve not had CNBC on today. Have the talking heads given the “all’s well” yet, lol?

  52. 52
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – most of us don’t focus (enough) on the details of the hedges. we should, but we don’t. so, anything you know about the types of hedges (and where the risks to those hedges are) is above and beyond most investors in this space. (hence the Loomis Sayles comment.)

  53. 53
    Bleemus Says:

    CNBC is just giddy with excitement today.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Another director bought 40,000 CHK shares on Friday so I guess they were not worried about it.

    Thanks Bleemus…Must be nice to have no short term memory.

    Refiners up big today as products outpace crude. Gasoline up 6%.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    GS out with new price targets on the big cap E&P group. Headlines still scrolling, so far:

    APC goes from 94 to 47, still buy
    APA drops from 159 to 102, still buy

  56. 56
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    i guess the forced selling by your CEO of 5% of your stock is not considered “material non-public information.” doesn’t pass the smell test to me. but, who cares.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    More GS

    DVN from 158 to 98, still buy
    EOG from 135 to 90, still buy
    HES from 125 to 75, still buy

    the only indie refiners so far
    HOC from 45 to 25, still buy
    FTO from 27 to 14, rating neutral (I think they have the potential of these two switched but whatever)

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    HAL up 15%, SLB up 2%.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Hearing SAC went to cash.

  60. 60
    elduque Says:

    What/who is SAC? Pardon my ignorance and what is the significance of going to cash.

    Mahalo

  61. 61
    elduque Says:

    If the market can stabilize around this level, We will have eliminated one of the larger sellers in this market. All those who were forced to liquidate because of margin calls. Talked to TDameritrade and they said that last week was huge.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    SAC – big player in the markets and energy. They seem to be taking an investing time out.

    Last hour of trading will be interesting.

  63. 63
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    at one point, SAC was said to account for more than 10% of the daily volume on the NYSE. The founder is widely believed to be one of the best stock traders in the world.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    I will make some small, toe dipping trades in the next few days…would like to see a small pullback in the names but am ok with buying here if the broad market will keep its act together. Given the pummeling everything has had, a one day rally, albeit of a size like this by no means exhausts the potential for further gains.

  65. 65
    doc Says:

    I would have thought a lot of people would look at their mutual funds on the weekend and call their broker to sell today

  66. 66
    reefguy Says:

    Biggest one day gain ever?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Reef – after the moves we’ve had I’m not complaining.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    CHK 56 mm shares.

  69. 69
    reefguy Says:

    HK 17 MM up 36%

  70. 70
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Zman

    What do you think about a strategy on CHK:

    Sell 10 Oct 20 CHKJD for $1,700
    Buy 10 Nov 20 CHKKD for -4,000

    Net investment of $2,300

    It’s betting it goes to the 26 range b4 Nov expiry.

    Q.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Q – Not bad at all, just mulling whether or not to pull the trigger on a little or wait for more data on Wednesday.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    First you had non-sense selling, now no brainer buying. APA, DVN, EOG all up $11.

  73. 73
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    OK,

    I stuck my toe in with CHK. When did you say the conference is scheduled?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Re CHK, its a few hours Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.

  75. 75
    tater Says:

    Just want to chime in on the mega-moves. Volume, ROC, blah blah blah. A good way to get a handle on some of this is to make sure that you are using the proper time frame for your trading. If you missed the “bottom” and now want to play, make sure that you are working in the right time frame. The “bottom” was for a one week period. Mega move down, now great move back up. Switch to a weekly period of reference and you still have a down trend. Is there room left for more moves up. Of course. Do you have to trade it? Of course not. Are some traders now contemplating getting short again because that is in line with the longer time frame trend?
    You bet.
    Not giving advice one way or the other. I’m just saying be sure to have your time frame in line with your trade.

    BOP – I appreciated the lively conversation last Friday. Hope you feel the same.

  76. 76
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Is there any confirmation that TBoone sold lots of CHK? Is there a time frame you have to wait to know for sure?

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Tom – it will take awhile to confirm TBP selling from one of his funds…likely not hear for a few weeks until they file. If you mean personally, and I don’t know if he held enough to be a filer, that would be much sooner.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Up 950 Dow. Wow.

    DOW, Comp, S&P up 11 to 12%.

  79. 79
    ram Says:

    Since the economy is contracting and company’s eps will be contracting accordingly, isn’t fair to say that this move might be half of the move up for a 12 month period from the lows on Friday?

  80. 80
    Fred Says:

    Z, Doc – Here’s something on T. Boone:

    http://mcauleysworld.wordpress.com/2008/09/24/t-boone-pickens-investment-funds-down-about-1-billion/

  81. 81
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    #75 tater – LOL (which i can do now, but which was kinda tough on friday). thanks for your comment. it was indeed lively! (and probably kept me from jumping out the window instead. so, thanks)

  82. 82
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    We shall see where the US credit markets open up tomorrow. But, this is the kind of rally that just could start to bring money flows back into fixed income. SOMEthing has to get those flows started. What the Fed is doing (whether you agree with it, or not) is not fixing the problem (as Nicky keeps point out, sagely), but just helping to aleviate the symptoms to keep the patient alive long enough to let nature start her curing process.

    The cure involves people putting their money back in banks, money market funds, bond funds (and not just US Treasuries), and — yes — even high yield funds. The healing will start with the banks being able to lend to qualified borrowers, then companies being able to fund working capital in the money markets (through their commercial paper programs), then companies being able to rollover their term debt, and finally money being available to borrowers to fund M&A, stock buy-backs, and other longer-term capital expansion projects. This last leg will probably require there to be some light at the end of the tunnel on the economy, as we have not yet hit the depth of the spending recession. I fear more jobs losses ahead, for the next 6 months (just a guess, at this point). So, this is not going to be a quick turnaround.

    But, perhaps the healing process can begin. We shall see.

    I am no conspiracy theorist… but, i do know that there are global-macro hedge funds that will wait until after the US election to start to aggressively short the credit market again. If the market is still skittish (and unemployment ticks up), the bears probably have at least one good run on the market left in them. Keep that in mind, as you build and/or trade your positions.

    best wishes all.

  83. 83
    elduque Says:

    By the strength of my MLP’s and EGLE and PRGN, I would say that the credit market is going to be better tomorrow.

  84. 84
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    good info, elduque. thanks for that.

    The Credit Market is where this all started. The Credit Market is where it needs to end. THEN we get our stock market back!

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Thanks El-D, good point. LINE had a nice run today too, still 19% yield.

  86. 86
    Fiveanddimer Says:

    I’m delighted to see the equity markets around the world respond so well to the weekend’s G7 and european promises of bailouts, lending guarantees, and rescues. In total, all these initiatives (plus the previously announced measures like the $700 billion bailout) amount to trillions. I’m glad we had a rainyday fund to cover such a contingency. Oh oh, it just dawned on me — we don’t have any rainyday fund. So this is money our government doesn’t have and is unlikely to be able to borrow. It is money we are just pulling out of the air. What a great deal! We can summon up any amount we want, apparently with no negative consequences. Is this a great country, or what.

  87. 87
    VTZ Says:

    The best part is that people don’t think it will be inflationary…

  88. 88
    krishna Says:

    Z,
    Can you please update your holdings wiki or zeb-performance. I want to see open positions.

    Thanks
    Krishna

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    K – the Wiki is updated. Most of the positions are near wipeouts from before the fall. Have traded very little the last two weeks.

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