03
Oct

Frightful Friday

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Sentiment Watch: Another day ahead in which everyone will be watching Capitol Hill in fear of what will happen to their Hill of Capital. The House is planning to vote today and passage is not guaranteed as some members are looking for more changes. Like the bill or dislike the bill, the credit markets are frozen and failure to pass legislation today will likely result in the first quad point loss on the Dow. So we wait and watch

In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CHK, PCX
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch:

  • (DUG) - Exited the DUG October $45 calls for $4.30, up 23%.
  • (SD) - Added SD $17.50 November Calls for $2.65 with the stock down another 8% upon announcement that they too are reigning in Capex and trimming growth expectations in the face of low gas prices. This move from nearly $70 to $16 in the last three months seems more than a little overdone.

 

Commodity Watch

  • Oil got drilled for $4.56 to close at $93.97. Recent low for reference was 90.42. This morning crude is treading in place.

 

Natural Gas Storage Review

EIA reported a gas storage injection of 87 Bcf, higher then the Street's 75 Bcf average (range 50 to 93 Bcf), and my 70 Bcf.

 

End of storage season peak of still on target for 3.4 Tcf...not too big, not too small.

Gas Thoughts: I've been saying I'm warming up to a bottoming and small bounce in gas and I gave fives reasons for this in yesterday's post. However, another outlier storage injection will delay the bounce further into the beginning of the withdrawal season. Cold weather will be more important than ever as it is clear deliverability is quite high. Without the disruption brought about by Hurricanes Ike and Gustav this injection would have been triple digit and a record for this week in history.

One note on the following graphs: If you look at the second to last graph below (5 Year Average (Withdrawals) / Injections by Week) you will see the "normal" decline in injection size during this time of year. We'll need cooler weather to make that happen and I don't think prices will gain much traction without that turn down in injections becoming more apparent.

Stuff We Care About Today:

CHK Buys XOM's Barnett Acreage:

  • 24,000 acres and an 80 mile pipeline
  • Price and reserves not disclosed but I'd bet its at least a half billion dollar deal.
  • XOM's Barnett acreage was around Fort Worth /Irving so it makes sense to see CHK pick it up. XOM had been operating a JV here since 2005 and had reconfigured the pipeline and run a decent sized rig program until now.
  • This move probably takes Exxon out of the running to pick up a large gassy E&P.

(PCX) Misses 3Q Coal Production Target:

  • 8 mm tons produces vs 9.4 expected citing:
    • shortage of skilled workers - bankers apparently not yet ready to dig for a living
    • difficult geologic conditions - that sounds like a red flag
    • government delays - permitting delays and increased inspections
  • They plan to revise guidance lower for the 3Q and potentially beyond before earnings later this month
  • PCX has already been crushed back from recent highs like the rest of the coal group but I'd be loath to pick the one with operating problems when I do start prospecting for a turn in the space.

 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (AGU) cut to Hold at Cannacord, FBR cuts (SWN) price target from $48 to $40 - maintains Outperform.

ZTravelwatch: I will be at IPAA in San Francisco next Monday and at a Shale Expo in Shreveport in November.

87 Responses to “Frightful Friday”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    Oil Steady After Payrolls Data

    By Angela Henshall
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON — Crude oil futures traded higher in London Friday as the dollar weakened against the euro, but traders were hesitant to make any significant moves ahead of US non-farm payrolls data at 1230 GMT, and the US House of Representatives vote on the banking bailout plan.

    “Gains we’ve seen during the session this morning can be attributed to a weaker dollar, as well as anxiety ahead of the voting,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov analyst at Sucden Research. “The market remains cautious on the (plan’s) impact.”

    At 1108 GMT, the front-month November Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up 68 cents at $91.24 a barrel.

    The front-month November contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 48 cents higher at $94.45 a barrel.

    The ICE’s gasoil contract for October delivery was down $7.50 at $888.50 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for November delivery was up 103 points at 226.53 cents a gallon.

    For much of the week crude has sold off heavily as fears over a U.S. recession grow, prompting concerns over further deterioration of demand for crude and petroleum products.

    A raft of economic data has highlighted the U.S. slowdown. Later Friday, non-farm payrolls for September are expected to show a 105,000 decline, even faster than the 84,000 fall in August, traders say any surprises on this data could see the dollar to nosedive.

    “The world economy is creaking from the credit crunch and on a daily basis we see evidence of the global slowdown. In the U.S. we’re focusing on employment as today’s non-farm payrolls are likely to make depressing reading,” said Robert Laughlin at MF Global.

    Market participants are still on tenterhooks, worried the House of Representatives will reject the $700 billion bank package, which could also send the dollar lower.

    Despite all the bad news, the dollar has proved robust in recent weeks, as credit availability freezes and other currencies such as the euro, sterling and yen buckle under economic pressure. Consequently, dollar strength, particularly against the euro, has leant heavily on oil in the past five days, pushing the price closer to recent lows. Looking at technical charts for Nymex crude, traders are watching out for a breach of the $90.51 a barrel Sept. 16 low, which would signal the contract at its lowest point since Feb. 8.

    Looking ahead to the weekend, market participants are focusing on a meeting between European heads of state to discuss how to tackle the slowdown in European economies and consider a united approach to supporting the European banks and how this could feed through into European energy demand.

    —By Angela Henshall, Dow Jones Newswires

  2. 2
    Denise Says:

    Good morning,
    Z-Thx needed the chuckle on the dig comment
    Mr K is saying “reach for your cajones and buy” He says he is all in this am
    (doesn’t feel like it can get much worse!)

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Morning D!

    With all due respect to Mr Kass and not that he’s wrong but it can always get worse and bottoms are meant to be watched, not picked.

  4. 4
    Denise Says:

    I am reading that world wide rate cuts (coordinated) suspected/expected Monday morning-coulds be a short covering bounce
    We are getting pretty oversold
    Mr k is a trader with pretty good timing-why go home short this weekend?

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    I’m hearing some energy shops and throwing in the towel on trying to make recommendations until oil falls to 80 or below. I think they are just beat up and not playing the “if I knew then what I know now” game. With current prices in the group, I’d say our whole list is worth buying … the drop in the stocks has far outpaced the whacking the commodities have taken. But that’s just fundamentals and those don’t matter much right now.

    Denise – I agree, why be short, if you think they pass the bill. Rate cuts are coming too although inflation (boo-hiss) will actually crop up more if they don’t do the bill. I took my DUG position off again yesterday and yes we are very oversold (hard not to be when the average day is down 10% on energy of late). But what worries me is redemptions and a continuing round of forced liquidations. Names like Fidelity Select Energy which have core holdings in a lot of my traffic are getting hammered for the first time in years. People spell out the word bubble pretty quick right or wrong and after 5 years up in funds like that they are looking for cash, regardless of return. Maybe the bill is the event that turns this…I hope so…I have my doubts. Even if it leads to a rotation to financial names which buoys the market I don’t doubt that oil can go on floundering for awhile as the real economy continues to suffer. I’ve got my list for when stability returns to the commodities but for now I will play hit and run and will not “go all in”.

  6. 6
    tomdavis12 Says:

    Z: Since we now have excellent deliverability of nat gas and commodities are four letter words we should wait to nibble @ E&P. I have been in these when you are rooting for cold weather. A very helpless feeling.

  7. 7
    Sambone Says:

    By Gregory Meyer
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures declined a third straight session
    Friday after U.S. employment data pointed to further weakness in demand.
    Light, sweet crude for November delivery was recently down $1.41, or 1.5%, at
    $92.56 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as
    $91.30. Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange fell $1.29 to $89.27 a barrel.
    The Labor Department reported nonfarm payrolls fell by 159,000 in September,
    the steepest decline since March 2003 and more than 1 1/2 times expectations.
    Analysts said it portended softer U.S. consumption.
    “As we lose jobs, we lose people needing to drive to work. It’s a cold, harsh
    reality, and it is playing into the lower demand,” said Peter Beutel, president
    of Cameron Hanover, an energy risk management firm based in New Canaan, Conn.
    The payrolls reinforced data released earlier this week showing U.S. oil
    demand in the past four weeks is down 7.1% from the same time last year, though
    the figure partly reflects production shut down after last month’s hurricanes
    in the Gulf of Mexico.
    “The impressive retreat in crude oil prices over the last few months indicates
    to us that much of the weak demand outlook is already priced into crude oil,”
    said Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley, in a
    note to clients late Tuesday.
    As traders parsed the employment data, they said it also added pressure on the
    Federal Reserve to cut interest rates when its monetary policy committee meets
    next month. That could raise inflation expectations, possibly luring more
    investors back into commodities as a hedge.
    At the same time, monetary policymakers in Europe are also hinting at an
    interest rate cut later this year, which has pushed the euro lower against the
    dollar, helping to pressure dollar-denominated crude oil. The euro was $1.3702
    early Friday, from $1.3796 late Thursday.
    “The dollar and oil have been trading in inverse directions,” Beutel said.
    Also Friday, Ecuadorian Mining and Oil Minister Galo Chiriboga said the
    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects world oil prices to be
    about $110 per barrel next year.
    “We (OPEC) believe that oil price will stay at an average of $110 per barrel
    in 2009,” Chiriboga said in a television interview.
    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 3.41
    cents, or 1.5% to $2.2209 a gallon. November heating oil fell 4.34 cents, or
    1.6%, to $2.6661 a gallon.

    -By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires

    Dow Jones Newswires
    10-03-08 0946ET

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Me too Tom – I’m watch gas and the group for more capex, more curtailments…its coming. But the next 4 weeks really need to see the injections at least trend with that second to last graph in the post. Gas will soften if the green lines starts to hang out to the right of (above) that channel.

  9. 9
    Sambone Says:

    9:50 (Dow Jones) Equally weighted, $1,000 investment last year in shares of
    AIG, Lehman (LEHMQ) and Freddie Mac (FRE) would leave one with about $55, while
    “mere $1,000 investment in beer at same point would have left you with
    something like $200 from return deposits/recycling,” notes Tudor Pickering
    Holt. More seriously, firm says energy stocks are acting like oil’s heading to
    $60/bbl: “No other conclusion than majority of investors now expecting emerging
    market economies to soften materially.” (MRL)

  10. 10
    Wyoming Says:

    Bad implication for CRR and St Gobain. Frac sales guy I deal with telling me that they are now pumping resin coated sand rather than ceramics/bauxite in the Haynesville Shale. Probably takes about $500k off the well cost depending upon volume, ~2MM#.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Thanks Wyoming. Good due diligence. That is bad as they have been running as hard as possible to keep with demand. CRR mentions the Haynesville as a driver going forward. Any way to get granular on recent wells with and without ceramic proppant?

  12. 12
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    z – great call on SD yesterday. I think whatever rumors were circulating out there will prove to be unfounded. Would like to see Tom Ward step in and buy some shares. Perhaps he will, now that the capex cuts have been announced. I see that TPH put a $53 PT on the stock, although that assumes $8 nat gas. Still, don’t usually get to buy $2.7B market cap companies with that much potential upside.

    Just a few thoughts.

  13. 13
    Wyoming Says:

    That is always the big deal with ceramics, unfortunately we drill and complete off economics rather than what is “best for the well”. Is $1mm worth that extra 1bcf if gas drops below $8? That also assumes that the reservoir data is consistent too.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Bird – should have done the same in CLR but you can’t kiss all the dead cats. Look at WFT.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Wyoming – right, I didn’t think it would be easy/possible. Just wonder if we could find out if CHK is using sand and HK is using ceramic for instance or is it just local geology that is turning out the bigger wells for HK.

  16. 16
    Wyoming Says:

    I’m not that “in” the HS and I am skipping the SPE golf Monday so I won’t be able to play the dumb outsider to engineers in the know. Right now I can tell you it is HK doing the resin coat design.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Have they said yet what time the vote is going to take place?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Thanks Wyo – does not bode well for CRR in cap-strained market.

  19. 19
    Denise Says:

    Interesting chart on fallout probabilities from Prieur du Plessis this am-well worth taking a look at

    http://www.investmentpostcards.com/

  20. 20
    douglas51 Says:

    Don Coxe’s report today talks about NASA’a recent report that said the solar winds and sunspots are the lowest they have recorded in the last 50 years.

    Based on 400 years of studies indicate a cooler fall and a colder winter than past years.

    Should be a page one story, but finacials take up all the space.

    Don says that this should have a very positive effect on natural gas prices.

    FYI.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Thanks Douglas – concurs with Farmers Almanac which is usually pretty accurate. National Weather Service should release their early winter forecast next week.

    House voted yes to have a vote. No wonder things take so long there.

  22. 22
    Fred Says:

    Z – Vote at 12:30 P.M. ET.

  23. 23
    BossmanG Says:

    douglas, did you get this info from his conference call this morning? or some other source?

  24. 24
    BossmanG Says:

    Sambone, appreciate you posting that jpmorgan number report…is their a way to access other reports or newer? (not only from jpmorgan?)
    thanks

  25. 25
    douglas51 Says:

    Bossman…got thisrom his weekly conference call this morning

  26. 26
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    Rescue Plan picks up 12 votes from lawmakers who voted no.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Thanks Fred. I’d bet stock gains double on day with passage. Oil is responding well and I may take some SU calls for a fun Friday play on the vote.

  28. 28
    Sambone Says:

    Boss – What kind of reports are you looking for?

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    WFT up 20% on about 1/3 (so far) of yesterday’s volume. So there is appetite out there. Hmmm.

  30. 30
    tbone Says:

    Wyoming and Z, I have to ask the question… what does “now pumping resin coated sand rather than ceramics/bauxite” mean? Is one an advantage over the other?
    Thanks!

  31. 31
    Fiveanddimer Says:

    Z — do you think we could get a “sell the news” reaction, once the news hits that the bailout bill has passed? Despite this bill, looks we are still headed into a serious recession.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Tbone – I’ll let Wyoming expand on it but basically they are using a cheaper variety of proppant when they frac a well. The proppant is what “props” the fractures open so that hydrocarbons can flow more readily to the well bore. Ceramic costs more but seems to perform better for the shale plays. CRR specializes in ceramic proppant. Perfectly round unlike beach sand which has jagged edges that can result in lower flow. Sand can also get crushed at these pressure more readily than ceramic so the frac may last longer with ceramic.

  33. 33
    Denise Says:

    Z-I could be wrong but believe wft up grater % than others because T Harrison at Minanyville bought yesterday-he has a pretty big following

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Five – re sell the news…that’s part of why I’m not throwing on more trades pre vote. The other reason is that I’ll be on a plane an hour after the vote.

    I see the bill as avoiding a crash and therefore it might have a bit of leg to it but I don’t think it keeps out of some sort of recession.

    Denise – could be. I’m not chasing that name right now as per comments from SLB relayed on the site in comments yesterday. It’s a nice bounce and the move down is overdone but I can show a couple of hundred names where that is also true and the company isn’t low bidding to get business. Makes me worry about earnings.

  35. 35
    john11 Says:

    Re WFT also, Tudor Pickering out with this comment in their daily thoughts today;
    · Weatherford – how crazy is this?! (WFT – $18.53 – B) – Nibble..we’re begging you. Worth selling some other energy position to buy this stock. WFT has become Baby Ruth floating in Caddyshack pool. Stock -21% yesterday on ~3x normal volume (down 63% since end Q2). That isn’t fundamentals, that is somebody puking it out and shorts piling on. WFT can’t lose enough money in Mexico (ongoing investor concern) to make this stock move justifiable. At $18.5/share, WFT trading 7x our newly revised 2009 P/E, 9x our downside P/E.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    I’ll tell you one thing, if they don’t pass it, I’ll be taking USO puts and DUG calls with both feet as crude will break $90.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    John11 – somebody sent me that and that “lose enough money in Mexico” is what I was referring to yesterday on the IPM contracts they underbid SLB for. The Caddyshack line was enough to make me snort my coffee.

  38. 38
    Denise Says:

    Saw note that Bloomberg reported enough required additional votes to pass bill at 10:57est

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Thanks D … I think it passes … But I thought that last time and while I see more reps coming over I also think you will lose some…watched several rail against the new pork last night.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    So looking at the multiple gas down chart of AGU, if it does pass, how do you not buy that now that everyone late in the game has downgraded them and given the fact that their biggest costs (pretty sure its biggest) is natural gas will remain somewhat subdued. Stock down from $80 6 days ago, now at $45 because of the farmers can’t get credit stories. Same goes for MON down from $110 to $88 in 4 days.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    I’m just thinking out loud in 40 but I may take a little of each.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    ADM too although that chart…wow, long time ugly now.

  43. 43
    mahout Says:

    Z,

    The bounce is already in. Most of my good energy names are up 4% to 6%.
    Says to me the likelyhood of passing Bailout#2 is quite strong, and maybe these prices will workout to be about the closing prices for the day. All guesswork tho.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    M – maybe so but we are talking multiple 10%-15% drop days and if this bounce is all you get out of passage when the worry came from non-passage and what would happen in that event then I would say more upside exists, especially in the more shattered names.

  45. 45
    VTZ Says:

    Z – I am also thinking about POT and AGU.

  46. 46
    Eagle Says:

    Z Would BG be on your list for #40 as well?

  47. 47
    mahout Says:

    Z #44,

    Your comment makes good sense to me, but I have added more nasty Fund liquidations later today after a move up (upon passing) into my figuring. Without that it should really jump limited by the worry that even after all this the banks will still not lend like we want them to and people will get hurt bad.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Eagle – yeah although that one is like ADM with the more protracted slide and I know very little about them. But yeah, same generally “all’s well now” euphoria should catch there too.

    Mahout – I hear you and you may be right. I think there are a lot of recent shorts in the group (can’t do financials for now so they have to stay busy) and they have made a lot of money very fast. I see the Dow up more on passage when you look at the reaction to the non-passage last time and since and that should cause new shorts to cover and hit the beach for the weekend.

  49. 49
    Denise Says:

    Read average hedge fund return 8.6% for September-lets hopefully assume they book it and cover?

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    D – yep. What’s the average number for the year? Some I’ve heard are down 90% ytd.

  51. 51
    mahout Says:

    Z #48,

    You are probably right again. I look forward to how it plays out today with great interest.

    But how can you leave us at this critical time? Will you stay in touch?

    (That Caddyshack line by John11 in # 35 really made my day)

  52. 52
    BossmanG Says:

    Sambone, RE 28, nothing in particular as of yet, just some good weekend reading material mostly…percolating some thoughts

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    M – it will be an interesting day. Regarding keeping in touch I will be around on the weekend and monitoring after 1 from my blackberry. Anybody who occasionally wants to post market stats gets a surprise.

  54. 54
    tater Says:

    Just a quick question on HK. Were you to have an an imaginary trading account that you weren’t going to touch for a long time. What price would you begin to accumulate HK shares at, if you were looking to have some for a rainy day. Hypothetically speaking.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Tater – This will probably sound flip so let me say I don’t mean for it to. But I liked them at $12 and $18 and the news had gotten strong enough out of them that I even liked it at $46 when Cramer “discovered” them. I hold it now with buys around these prices and higher and I’m holding.

    I’ll be watching the site and will try to respond via the aaatest login. Let me know what happens with the vote and have a good day and weekend.

  56. 56
    Wyoming Says:

    Tbone,

    To add to the proppant discussion. Z is correct about the roundness and costs. Roundness has a greater ability to flow through. One main point is the crush resistance. Fracs are hydraulically (fluid/gas or combination) opened and usually a propping agent is left behind. When the frac “closes”, it places a stress on each grain. Closure is a function of overburden so depth is a good correlation of what will be placed in the frac. Sand is shallow, ceramics/bauxite deep. The roundness places another role here in the point to point loading is disbursed (think of the egg between your 2 palms trick). The fines generated in the crush ruins some of the ability to flow, thus the claim that ceramics crush less and are more conductive.

    This is the peanut version, further discussion could involve comments from core-lab about ceramics crushing too, embedment, mesh size impacts ….

  57. 57
    kaman Says:

    House passes bailout 263-171

  58. 58
    Garyinhou Says:

    And everything drops…

  59. 59
    kaman Says:

    …per CNN, do your own due diligence!

  60. 60
    rlogan1301 Says:

    HK..just getting hammered…thoughts on this?

  61. 61
    rlogan1301 Says:

    oct20 calls…down sharply…z – you holding them still?

  62. 62
    antrimshale74 Says:

    Oil and gas selling off pretty good here.

  63. 63
    Jason Says:

    Oil: 93.39
    Gas: 7.381
    Dow: +96

  64. 64
    tater Says:

    FTO 15.13, TSO 14.23, USO 75.89, UNG 32.81, RIG 98.57, NOV 42.36, SLB 76.12, SU 35.38, CLR 30.25, HK 16.99

  65. 65
    mahout Says:

    Z and all,

    Some whopper of a pop on passing!
    The lack of enthusiasm is palpable.

    This can’t be good. Maybe the traders have serious doubts about the effectiveness of what was just passed. And well they should. That Bill without some other key things being done to more directly attack the problem, will be a disapointment, I fear. I expect now a .5% rate cut soon coordinated with the ECB to eliminate currency exchange rate effects. And even that won’t do it, I fear. Paulson will have to substantially overpay the banks when he buys toxic investments for this Bill to have a chance to be an unclogger, IMO. The idea that Taxpayers are going to make money on this deal is (let’s be kind) not very realistic. Yet that’s what some people have been saying. The truth remains that with their Equity on the balance Sheet ravaged to very low levels, the banks desperately need fresh equity capital, not the sale of some assets. This Bill ignores this problem.

  66. 66
    Jason Says:

    Oil: 93.90
    Gas: 7.36
    Dow: Even – Very Volatile

  67. 67
    mahout Says:

    Tater #54,

    Don’t pay any attention to me, but what’s wrong with using the Kramer method he mentioned yesterday?

    Start buying HK now (last I saw was 15.67, an outstandingly cheap price on fundamentals, which don’t matter) and buy more everytime it drops ten points.
    OOPS. Scratch everthing I just said.

  68. 68
    tater Says:

    I guess my question was more to the idea that I don’t really follow fundamentals all that closely for individual names. I don’t know what well flows are, but I trust that some of you guys do, especially Z. So what I am usually doing with that type of question is asking whether or not I have missed an obvious red flag (like something from a conference call) before I go off and try to work a technical trade. Here, I personally like HK as I think it could be putting in a bottoming action soon. For me that usually means I am in it for about 48 hours and then I’m off to something else, but I am thinking about putting some names into an IRA on a value basis (for the first time in a long time).

  69. 69
    tater Says:

    Have to remember that when you hear the TV guys talk about oil going back to $50 because of a worldwide recession, well that may well be, but they don’t read the peak oil info, they don’t read anything about the Middle Eastern economies actually beginning to use up their own oil, they don’t read about the cost of pumping a barrel (oh Nancy are you with us?), etc. I just think that at some point soon many of these names will stop being trades and will begin to be investments. My opinion, worth about 2 cents as usual.

  70. 70
    antrimshale74 Says:

    VIX is back up to 44 which is making me very nervous.

  71. 71
    mahout Says:

    Tater #68,

    I get it. And I wish I could operate the same way. Maybe someday.

    I am waaay underwater on my HK and want to add more at these amazing prices, but I am doubtful about when to jump in. If you feel that it does put in a bottoming action, please let me know. I may get a hunch and bet a bunch.

  72. 72
    Wyoming Says:

    Tater,

    The fundamentals are really important in the Oil and Gas sector. You have many people taking 2 hour flow test data and extrapolating to 24 hours then telling the community that they are flowing xxxx BBL/day.

    Along the same lines are spikes from a single/couple test wells and associated spikes. Some of these wells/reservoirs won’t come on for years, depends on country/environment etc.. Where are these new reserves in PBR or when Pemex announced they had a new Giant field, failed to tell everyone it was based on Seismic only had had not actually spudded a test well.

    Peak oil, I believe it I know it to be true. It is a long slow process. The volumes you see today are an acceleration of the decline (draining) of the reservoir. Remember that the US peaked in 1971. This is a cry wolf situation. People cry supply /demand, panic sets in and $150 oil ensues. Pull back encounters and when the next supply issue story comes out, the world says”Oh yea, that excuse again, conspiracy!”. Next thing you know oil CEO’s are in front of all the Nancy’s. Apologies in advance to any non-Congressional Nancy’s of the world.

    Serious stuff:

    “Pool, pond, pond would be goos for you.”

  73. 73
    mahout Says:

    Tater #69,

    When I read about oil going to $50. I get a good laugh. “Sure, sure” (John Garfield). In addition to the factors you mentioned, we add a net 80,000,000 people a year to the world population. We also have a growing middle class in Asian countries and a strong migration to the big cities. All these things require more energy products. There are many other reasons but those are sufficient for me to get a good laugh. And your opinion is worth considerably more than 2 cents, because that’s what mine is worth and I have the losses to prove it.

  74. 74
    tater Says:

    Wyoming, hope you got the gold idea going. Sorry, I had too much shrinkage. Fundamentals v. technicals, the never ending battle. I agree with you (and Z, but again don’t tell him) about fundamentals. I’m kind of a fundamentals for which names, then technicals for entry and exit kind of guy. I guess whatever works.
    Mahout, easy on the jump-in strategy, might as well bet a football game. At least you get to watch the game and have a platter of nachos.

    DOW -130, S&P -21.51, RIG -.71, SLB +.99, FTO -1.33, NBR -.71, CLR -1.55, HK -1.92

  75. 75
    tater Says:

    UNG -.37, NFX -.41, CHK -1.26, HK -2.09, XTO -1.04

  76. 76
    Wyoming Says:

    A simple way to express what I floundered with is that Reserves matter and the quality of them. Proven/probable; producing/underdevelopment/non-producing

    The interesting thing is when you have foreign countries playing games and are now relatively unknown because they do not have Sarbanes Oxley etc.

    Wikipedia “oil reserves”

  77. 77
    tater Says:

    Wyoming, I hate to insinuate anything, but why the heck aren’t you working? 🙂

  78. 78
    Popeye Says:

    Well that was an ugly day. Let’s drink to better days ahead (I hope).

  79. 79
    tbone Says:

    Wyoming and Z, Thanks for both your responses!

  80. 80
    tbone Says:

    Put a fork in the market.. The market movers are looking for a rate reduction, then will take their profits and convert to cash. Market will burn and leave small investors holding the bag again. My thoughts anyway….

  81. 81
    mahout Says:

    Wyoming,

    Enjoy your comments very much. they are very educational. Thanks.

    Did you see CHK? From $70. to $28.92 in 3 months. This has to be a bad dream.

    What is that Pool, pond thing? It’s driving me nuts. Is that from some well drillers manual?

  82. 82
    Wyoming Says:

    I only work 1/2 days on Friday, start @ 6am. I also figured out how to use my PDA as a modem and sling my personal laptop to keep an eye on things.

    The real litmus test for me and the energy markets in North America are

    1. SLB will cut headcount in North America, they are always the first to react.
    2. SLB cuts Capex in North America
    3. Headhunters stop calling

  83. 83
    Wyoming Says:

    Caddyshack. Chevy Chase to Bill Murray. Salute to the earlier comment in the pool Caddy Hour.

    Friday usually has a couple of movie quotes, like Snatch etc..

  84. 84
    mahout Says:

    Tater #74,

    I like that, I think you’ve got something there. Fundamentals for names and Technicals for entry and exit points.
    This is revolutionizing my thinking. Seriously, I think it may catch on with me. I’ll give it a try. Uuuh, there’s just one more thing I need to know. Where do I go for money? You’ve probably got that figured out too. Please let me know (and I hope it’s not: get a job).

    (Just kidding. I have a few bucks left.)

    I like the: bet on football games idea too. Funny thing, I usually win on those, unlike betting on CHK. And the natchos ARE good.

    Have a great weekend Tater and all.

    Signing off, see ya monday.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    In Vegas on layover at a cuervo bar. Pulled up Thomson. Wow. Ugly. Ugly. $2 shots with purchase of a beer? Yeah, that sounds good. Man did I miss the call on the market reaction to passage. Sheesh. Thanks for the updates while I was out but I forgot to mention I only wanted to hear about green.

  86. 86
    Fiveanddimer Says:

    Here is a very recent Utube clip (from the ASPO conference)from Matt Simmons:

  87. 87
    john11 Says:

    Just got back….am floored by the news that Aubrey was the seller over the last 3 days..wiped out his position due to margin calls…amazing!

    OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Aubrey K. McClendon, chief executive of Chesapeake Energy Corp., has sold the bulk of his stock in the company over the past three days in order to meet margin loan calls, the company said Friday.
    I am very disappointed to have been required to sell substantially all of my shares of Chesapeake,” McClendon said in a news release. “These involuntary and unexpected sales were precipitated by the extraordinary circumstances of the worldwide financial crisis.”

    “I have been the company’s largest individual shareholder for the past three years and frequently purchased additional shares of stock on margin as an expression of my complete confidence in the value of the company’s strategy and assets.”

    McClendon said he looked forward to rebuilding his ownership position in the company.

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