12
Jun

Thursday Night Gas Storage Review

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Natural Gas closed $0.14 at $12.80 as a smaller than expected build in gas inventories helped drive the July contract to near record levels. EIA reported and injection of 80 Bcf into gas storage, 10 Bcf shy of Consensus and my own estimate for the week's change. A combination of warmer than normal weather (which increased cooling load), lower imports via LNG and now increasingly Canada and higher exports to Mexico are more than offsetting a 5 ish Bcfgpd YoY increase in lower 48 gas supplies. At present gas storage is roughly in line with the five year average and is not making up ground on that or the YoY deficit and there is increasing concern that storage will peak at the end of October closer to the 3.1 Tcf mark than many (including myself) would have thought at the beginning of the year. This is price supportive.  

 

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CDDs Vs Storage Injections. This is last year's course of injections vs cooling degree days. Given forecasts for an even hotter first half of the Summer this year I would not expect this pattern to change significantly due to high production, at least through July and especially not with slack imports. 

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Taking a look at the storage refill it is clear that storage will likely peak this fall at sub par levels.

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One Response to “Thursday Night Gas Storage Review”

  1. 1
    BirdsofpreyRcool Says:

    welp…. Just to follow up on yesterday’s comments re: FTRS. They reported their long-awaited results from the GB-4 well. Suffice it to say, this pig is so ugly, they didn’t even bother to waste the lipstick. Company will turn their focus back to their Texas oil production.

    NEXT!

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