23
May

TGIF

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In Today's Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. E&P Valuation - A Brief Primer - Part I
  4. Stocks We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Holdings Watch: Added some small positions on weakness yesterday

  • (SD) - Entered SD July $55 calls (SDGK) for $1.75. Went in small with plans to add more on weakness. Over the next few months I would expect SD to big sharing more data regarding its move eastward away from the Pinon field in the West Texas Overthrust play. 
  • (CLR) - Added a July $65 call (CLRGM) position for $3.80. This was also a pretty small entry as I think about taking profits in the remaining June calls probably sometime next week. This is not just a Bakken and Woodford play and they are announcing some nice new oil wells from their end of the Trenton/Black River play in Michigan.
  • (CHK) - Added to the June $60 call position (CHKFL) for $0.55 when the stock was off 5% on no apparent news. Chesapeake hit a high of $59.82 on Monday and has sold off on profit taking and a debt rate swap which is typical of how the stock trades the week of a deal. While the group has become somewhat extended, CHK remains one of the cheapest, highest growth rate names so seeing a rebound towards $60 is not far fetched in the three weeks we have until these June contracts expire (like I said, it only took 4 days for it to fall from that level). A 50% retracement from today's low would yield a price of about $56 which should drive these calls back towards $0.90 if it happens in the next week or so which wouldn't be a bad return for a bottom fishing expedition.
Commodity Watch:
 
  • Crude Oil: profit taking. Plain and simple profit taking drove the front month down $2.36 to close at $130.81. This morning crude is trading up $1.00 to $1.50 in the early session.
  • Natural Gas traded up $0.057 to close at $11.697 Thursday after the EIA reported an injection of 85 Bcf for last week, inline with consensus expectations. The flattish to slightly positive move for once bucked the day's move in crude which saw modest profit taking after hitting another all time high early in the market. This morning crude is trading flat to up slightly
 
E&P Valuation Primer: This is a very brief
 
Price/Cash Flow Per Share. E&P is judged on this metric rather than on the ubiquitous P/E ratio as E&P earnings can be distorted by the accounting rules that are specific to the E&P universe. Deferred taxes, although they are non-cash in natural distort the true cash generating picture as do mark-to-market hedge accounting rules. Looking at cash flow excludes these non cash items and levels the relative valuation playing field across the group.

Here's the P/CF Read On Our Frequented E&P Names: (note that about this time of year E&P investors, the big fund managers, start to shift from 2008 to 2009 estimates).

ep-pcf-052208.jpg

Once you know where they are relative to each other you can look for anomalies; valuations that are too high or too low given their individual stories.  Many, but not all of the names I traffic in are ones in which I'm not only seeking appreciating in cash flow estimates but also expansion of the P/CF multiple.

Some items that will generally garner a higher P/CF Multiple:

  • Reserve life or R/P Ratio: This is simply the company's reserves divided by its production. In general a high reserve life yields a higher multiple but not always. Resource players (E&Ps with shale or coalbed methane or other long lived reserves (meaning the wells produce for a very long time) will have longer reserve lives, often with R/P ratios over 10 years.
  • Production growth: the higher the growth rate, all other things being equal, the higher the multiple. However, the "all other things being equal statement" is important. Growth for the sake of growth without regard to cost or the balance sheet will have the opposite effect on the multiple.
  • Repeatability/sustainability of your plays.  This kind of goes along with the first bullet point but I would add that this is more an indication of future drilling inventory.  Again, more potential locations to drill, in a manufacturing style operation (one with very low or no incidence of dry holes) will generally yield a higher multiple than an exploration driven company where there is more uncertainty about every well drilled.

  • Operating Cost Structure/Field Margins: obviously the lower the better. What is "low" depends on the type of play, location, access to markets (some company get a premium to NYMEX for instance while others suffer a large discount) but mostly I'm looking for discipline and directionality here. I always look at cash costs on per unit of production basis.
  • Balance Sheet - strong is better but that's not to say debt free = higher multiple. That is to say that an appropriate capital structure and propensity to not continously outspend cash flow and load up the balance sheet with debt will general lead to a high multiple. 
  • Management - history of success, meeting expectations/guidance and substantial ownership.

There are lots of other factors that can push multiples up or down including access to market, political stability of the regions in which the company drills etc but the ones above are among the key determinants.  

Other metrics

NAV = Net Asset Value. Which is basically net worth and is less useful, in my book, for trading, as your data points on reserve life gets crusty as the year goes on (most companies only run reserve reports at the end of each year). I find that company's often trade at discounts of as much as 50% from NAV and that as a trading tool it is only useful at the extremes or during a takeover. 

 

 
Stocks We Care About Today:
 
Canadian Well Count Seen Up 31% in 2008. The Canadian Association of Oilwell Drilling Contractors expects 18,087 wells to be drilled in Canada in 2008, up from its prior forecast of 13,735 made last October. They cited increased enthusiam from Canadian players and unconventional gas plays in British Columbia (hello EOG) and the Bakken oil shale in Saskatchewan (just north of the Neeson Anticline in North Dakota). They also upped their utilization rate for the Canadian fleet of land rigs from 24% to 42%. This is pretty much the other shoe to drop that we've been waiting for in North American service and rig plays. Potential Plays:
 
  • (PDS) - largest Canadian rig operator with clients in just about every Major and E&P operating in Canada. The stock has had a good run run. Blooming rig demand in the BC play fits well with their new high mobility rigs.

  • (NBR) - more tightness in the rig market is good for them and they could see further calls for high horsepower new build rigs from the Saskatchewan Bakken. They have higher horsepower rigs than PDS. 

land-drillers-052208.jpg

  • (HAL) - they are expanding there services in Canada and had already hinted that things north of the border are improving faster than expected on their 1Q conference call. Note: HAL announced a proposal to buy Expro this morning for $3.85 billion and this bid was widely anticipated. 

 

  • (CLB) - more wells means more cores, they too are expanding operations in Canada.  
 
Blackbeard Play Primer
 

Here’s another good link with history on the Blackbeard well and play.

http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/286537781.shtml

This is my wildcat bet of the quarter and its probably the most widely anticipated well on the globe right now. I'm participating via (MMR) since I’m more familiar with what’s going on at their other plays, Flat Rock etc than I am with PXP and that at $2.4 billion TEV for MMR, success here will mean a lot more to them than to the bigger $10 B enterprise value of PXP.

MMR: operates the well with a 32.3% working interest,
EXXI: 20% wi
PXP: 35% wi

I'll track down the remaining percentage ownership today. 

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (STP) price target bumped slightly at Jefferies, otherwise a quiet day on the analyst front. 

 

Have a great and safe three day weekend if I don't speak with you in comments. 

 

 

 

161 Responses to “TGIF”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    7:35 am EST

    Nymex, Brent Crude Up $2, Back Above $133/Bbl

    By Nick Heath
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON — Crude oil futures climbed more than $2 to over $133 a barrel in London Friday, on persistent concerns global crude oil supplies will struggle to meet future demand.

    Bargain hunters helped prices rebound, seizing on Thursday’s pullback from record highs as investor sentiment on crude futures remained bullish, while a bounce in distillate futures to near-record highs channeled additional support into the crude complex.

    “Investors are worried that stagnant supplies from non-OPEC producing states will not expand to the necessary capacity in order to meet ever rising demand, stimulated by growing emerging market economies like China,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at Sucden Research in London.

    At 1119 GMT, the front-month July Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up $2.33 at $132.84 a barrel.

    The front-month July light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $2.03 higher at $132.84 a barrel.

    The ICE’s gasoil contract for June delivery was up $23.50 at $1,296.50 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for June delivery was up 533 points at 338.30 cents a gallon.

    —By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    Oil Could Force Equity Rethink

    By DAVID COTTLE
    A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

    LONDON — The oil price shocks keep on coming.

    As many commodity graybeards wonder to what extent the current price surges reflect the game’s fundamentals, the price of a barrel just ignores them and climbs.

    And whether or not the white-knuckle ride continues, there’s been a raft of upgrades to long-term price forecasts. Unless a miraculous equivalent of Saudi Arabia’s gargantuan Ghawar oil field is serendipitously waiting somewhere accessible and politically stable, the days of anything resembling cheap oil are history. Don’t put too much cash down on that “big find” possibility, by the way. By all accounts the geologists think it’s wishing for the moon; apparently all the black stuff we haven’t found or burnt yet is deeply buried and hard to get at.

    So this new reality is being hammered home with a vengeance.

    The oil team at Credit Suisse is among the latest to up its calls. The house is now assuming a price of $120 per barrel for the rest of this year and scant relief next, with a $110 average tipped for 2009.

    It also cautions that its assumptions, if realized, would shave 0.6% off GDP growth in Europe. They would add 1% to inflation and, thereby, probably write off the chance of any rate cuts from the European Central Bank until after Christmas, at best.

    For equity investors, there could be a double whammy here. They seem likely to end up deprived of both the stimulus of easier interest rates and the lower commodity prices that are probably essential before stocks as a whole can really get moving again. The soaring cost of oil, and other raw materials, has been cited often enough as the reason behind some stock stalls and setbacks this year.

    And, even if prices fall a little, the landscape will have changed, with higher long-term costs certain.

    This could well force many investors to go back and look at assumptions they’d made about stock sectors ostensibly a good distance away from the oil-well heads.

    With this in mind, Credit Suisse believes many equity investors are still underestimating the potential earnings hit from higher energy costs, especially in some cyclical areas where pricing power is poor in any case. The bank highlights cement, tires, bulk chemicals and budget airlines as being in this particular firing line.

    However, there is one hopeful note. The technical analysts at Standard and Poor’s say Nymex crude is now very close to being as overbought as it’s been at any time in the last 10 years. The price is a good 40% above its 65-week “exponential moving average’, they tell us. That’s rather a lot. Indeed, the agency is bold enough to suggest that, in view of this, some sort of top is now forming and that the weeks and months ahead will at last see a move lower for crude.

    Here’s hoping.

    —By David Cottle, Dow Jones Newswires

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    gaamblor had a question about Canadian gas and storage last night:

    I watch this for Canadian storage:

    http://www.cga.ca/publications/documents/Chart7b_000.pdf

    the dip in the chart was caused by higher winter demand this past winter in Canada and the U.S. – production is not falling off a cliff up there but I don’t have good recent data.

  4. 4
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.

    Any thoughts on what impact, if any, the following will have:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/commodities-corner-oils-tense-trading/story.aspx?guid=%7BECDC33C0-2A10-4616-8274-158A8C593379%7D&dist=hplatest

  5. 5
    Nicky Says:

    http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=110177&d=23&m=5&y=2008

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    Nicky – Here ya go.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=751595712&play=1

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Nicky – traders will find a way. If you put up barriers to trade a commodity because of a rapid rise in price then they will find a way to trade it somewhere else.

    Why is Congress’s wrath focused on oil and not coal? If you check last week’s wrap piece you can see that the high BTU content eastern coal is up > 90% YTD. Why this attack on oil? Because of gasoline prices. These elected “leaders” haven’t clue what drives gasoline prices. Their policies. Maybe when people start freaking out over their electric bills, which are going to make their fill ups at the pump, look like a sniffle then congress will want to find the “conspiracy behind coal prices and keep people from buying it those contracts”

    I’m more than a little tired of intrusions by inept officials into the free markets. I am intrigued by the story which pointed out the 0% tax nature in Dubai. Why wouldn’t trading flood toward an environment like that. In fact, I can do this from anywhere too, hmmmm.

  8. 8
    Nicky Says:

    Thanks guys. I was more thinking is a new exchange likely to encourage a whole new band of investors/speculators and therefore push the price up further?

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    #8 = sorry for the rant in 7. I’d say that the potential exists for what you say in #8 to happen.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Crude once again killing the broad market.

  11. 11
    Dman Says:

    Zero percent. They don’t muck around evidently. Nevermind “low taxes”, try zero!

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    HAL: people seem to like that they aren’t paying more than $3.4 billion for the Expro acquisition. Expro barely moved on the news which suggests the prior offer from a private group is not going to raised. I’m strongly considering buying those HAL June $50s back for around $1.00 to $1.15. The sale on the broad market has dropped the energy sector from its light volume opening highs.

  13. 13
    ellwodo Says:

    So if oil goes up, it kills the market and the nat gas stocks go down. If oil goes down, so do the nat gas stocks. Remind me again why we are in this sector.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: HAL June $50 Calls for $1.23. This is a bottom fishing trade in a weak broad market environment.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Elwo – yes that has been the trend for a whopping 2 days. I’m here for times like the huge run we’ve had since mid February. Can’t get in banks, housing, etc. I’d also point out that on a relative basis, energy sectors are outperforming today and yesterday vs the broad market.

  16. 16
    Denise Says:

    Good Morning,
    Jeff Matthews runs a hedge fd called Ram Partners-thought this was worth a read-from his blog
    “Congress Blames the Hedge Funds—Yeah, That’s It!
    I got a call from a Congressman recently.

    I’d met with his staff early last year after testifying before Barney Frank’s Financial Services Committee, which was looking into hedge funds and whether the presence of so many big hedge funds was a destabilizing influence on the American economy.

    [Full disclosure: I once worked for Senator Ed Brooke of Massachusetts, then under a cloud over matters arising from the fallout of his divorce—a divorce that was, as America now knows, triggered by the Senator’s affair with Barbara Walters. Barney Frank back then was the only politician with enough guts to stand by Brooke. I still like him for that.]

    My colleagues and I told Frank’s committee, in essence, “No, hedge funds aren’t destabilizing—in fact they help provide liquidity.” And that’s pretty much how it worked in the ensuing credit crisis that began about three months later, although it was clear at the time that a few on the committee weren’t convinced.

    Now, this particular Congressman I spoke with recently was in no way the least intelligent of the bunch asking questions in that room. (Carolyn Maloney was what might politely be termed the “least value-add,” from what we saw: she read a statement that basically indicated she wasn’t going to listen to a word of what we said, asked a question that indicated she wouldn’t know a hedge fund from a tomato, and then headed out the door for something else.)

    This particular guy seemed bright and interested in what we had to say, and his call this week wasn’t completely out of the blue (I’d made friends with a staffer, who was working on energy policy). He sincerely wanted to know what I thought was driving oil prices higher.

    I explained the fact that a) world oil demand is up 12 million barrels a day since 2000, and non-OPEC oil supply is up only 4 million barrels a day since 2000, and b) America decided to convert food into ethanol at the very moment that c) China’s demand exploded.

    That’s pretty much the whole story, but the Congressman wasn’t buying it.

    What about hedge funds, he wanted to know. What about all these traders carrying all these contracts?

    I asked him how they had anything to do with it.

    “Well there’s so much more oil traded than really exists,” he said. “Isn’t that driving up the price?”

    I explained that’s pretty much the way it is with anything…stocks, bonds, oil, you name it.

    He didn’t believe it. Then he said Congress is considering reducing the amount of oil contracts traders can buy and sell. “Won’t that reduce the price of oil?”

    I explained that maybe if Congress had taxed gasoline and funded mass transit instead of giving tax breaks for SUVs and ethanol we wouldn’t be forced to go begging the Saudis for more oil.

    It went downhill from there.

    I figure maybe he’s been having coffee with Carolyn Maloney.

    Let’s hope my Congressman isn’t.”

    Jeff Matthews
    I Am Not Making This Up

    © 2008 Not Making This Up LLC

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Denise – that’s priceless, thanks!

  18. 18
    Denise Says:

    Mr. K adding to his short energy thesis
    says “he has seen this movie before and i have profited from it” (says he is probably early)
    He makes the observation that last nights CNBC special was reminescent of there town hall housing special.

    Also on another note he takes his short term market rating up now 5-3

    My ace T/A lady says this is only a correction and she could imagine the S&P moving up into a right shoulder head and shoulders formation

  19. 19
    Sambone Says:

    Wow, and we keep electing them.

  20. 20
    Dman Says:

    Denise, i guess 5 is neutral on the K-man’s scale?

  21. 21
    Denise Says:

    After reading Nicky’s articles I started wondering about all this long commodity pension $. Certainly could see California citizens all over Calprs?

    Also we are not the only country being destroyed by oil prices-I think there could be a concerted effort to bring them down-

  22. 22
    Denise Says:

    Dman-correct

  23. 23
    Sambone Says:

    10:06 am EST

    Nymex Crude Up, Traders Buy Before Long Weekend

    By Hyun Young Lee
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    OTTAWA — Crude oil futures opened higher Friday, as investors used Thursday’s pullback as a buying opportunity ahead of the long weekend.

    Light, sweet crude for July delivery was up $2.34, or 1.8%, at $133.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $2.84 higher at $133.35 a barrel.

    Traders were focused on squaring away their positions ahead of a three-day weekend in for Memorial Day in the U.S., as well as a public holiday in the U.K. And few want to bet on a reversal of the sharp rally seen in recent weeks.

    “I don’t think anybody wants to be short on this long weekend,” said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA in New York.

    “Any weakness in the market in this environment is viewed as an opportunity to buy,” he added.

    Buyers are coming back after a breather Thursday, when crude prices settled nearly 2% lower after spiking to yet another record above $135 a barrel.

    Thursday’s trading pattern suggests a correction in an ongoing market rally than a trend reversal, said Walter Zimmermann, a technical analyst at brokerage ICAP/United Energy.

    Moreover, the move down didn’t break any key support points, he noted, pegging $130.20 a barrel as an ideal support and $126.20 as the “must hold” level.

    A slight weakening in the dollar also helped to boost crude oil, slipping against both the euro and the yen. As the dollar has weakened in recent months, institutional investors have poured money into commodities, notably crude, as a hedge against inflation. Producers such as the Organization of Crude Exporting Countries steadfastly insist that speculators and the weak currency are to blame for higher oil prices, rather than any supply imbalance.

    But this institutional presence is likely here to stay, reckons Peter Beutel, president at trading advisory firm Cameron Hanover.

    “Recent studies would suggest…that it has little to do with a weak dollar or other passing phenomenon,” Beutel said in a note. “Foundations, mutual funds and pension managers have reportedly gotten long with a view to staying long forever. It could be a reason behind a recent move from backwardation to contango in crude oil. And it could have unpredictable ramifications.”

    Recently, contracts at the outer end of the futures curve stretching out to December 2016 have jumped, trading at a premium to front-month contracts in a pattern known as contango.

    Meanwhile, distillates prices continue to soar on the back of massive demand for diesel in particular. Thursday, the July heating oil contract — seen as a proxy for diesel — settled at a record high, defying the pull back in crude prices after China’s customs administration reported a 17-fold jump in diesel imports last month.

    Heating oil futures usually tend to weaken as winter ends and gasoline takes precendence, traditionally from the Memorial Day weekend that marks the start of the summer driving season. But this seasonal switch is unlikely to happen this year, Barakat said.

    “This hasn’t worked in the last several months,” he said. “Gasoline isn’t going to perform at all this year. The whole complex will continue to get leadership from heating oil.”

    Front-month June reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was up 6.69c, or 2%, to $3.3966 a gallon. June heating oil was 4.10c higher at $3.9953 a gallon.

    —By Hyun Young Lee, Dow Jones Newswires

  24. 24
    Nicky Says:

    Broader market – I still think we bounce from around this area in around this time frame. A cycle low is due 26th May so could come anytime between today and Wednesday realistically.

  25. 25
    Dman Says:

    Oil prices could be brought down quite effectively: car-pooling, telecommuting, mass-transit buildout, alt-energy buildout, all on a war footing. By which I mean a WWII type all-out effort, not 1% of the population getting rotated into a war-zone. But I guess that won’t happen, so prices will keep rising.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky.

    Dman – yep, but the U.S. does not work that way anymore. Nothing solves high prices like high prices. I did see that RV used prices have fallen something like 70% in the last 8 weeks. Maybe there’s a good summer bicycle play out there.

  27. 27
    Nicky Says:

    Oil – Denise I think Doug K is right but may well be a touch early. This has all the markings with the hype surrounding it.
    TA wise it looks like we are either still in 4 and need another move lower to complete a 3 wave move or it completed last night and we are now in 5 up.
    Still think we need to see a blow off top – maybe the Iran thing comes to the fore as I see USA and UK continue to threaten more sanctions and they then close or even threatening at this stage to close the Straits of Hormuz – we could see a beautiful spike up above 150 and then POW!

  28. 28
    Nicky Says:

    Silver and gold correction also not done but look like they are getting closer. Dollar making its last move down and euro up. Its all lining up…

  29. 29
    scoop006 Says:

    Z any thoughts on “X” off $20.in 2 days

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Scoop – two words: ugly market.
    one other word: support.

    Maybe it’s time to get back in.

  31. 31
    Denise Says:

    Z-support looks to be about another 20 away!
    All the extra from the heavy frame trucks and SUV’s (long one no one will buy)

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Did some snooping on Wind power last night.

    Looks like Vesta is the best pure play.

    (VWSYF) turnbines, blades, nacelles, development.

    they are bigger than GE in the upper end of the global turbine market which is broken down into 4 segments which the top two quartiles representing 53% of the total market.

    they are set to double production capacity by 2010 and will increase their global market share for turbines from 23% last year to 25% this year.

  33. 33
    dooch Says:

    Any thoughts at DRYS at these levels?

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Dooch – drybulks repeating last quarters outperform then sell off routine. I’m going to give it a few days to find a bottom and trade sideways as valuation means little to the investors in the group compared to what the stock is doing today. Trying to pick a bottom in these names is gambling and though I think the forward fundamentals of the industry are improved relative to 3 months ago the stock can still pull back more.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Maybe no one will notice SD today.

    Denise – how long is Doug thinking of holding DUG? Or to what level?

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Tristone raises NBR target from $40 to $50 and its rating from market perf to outperf.

  37. 37
    BossmanG Says:

    Z, what do you mean by no one will notice SD today?

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Boss – its the only stock on my screen that’s green.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Added June $42.50 NBR calls for $1.20.

  40. 40
    Denise Says:

    Z-he never shares those thoughts-but is good about posting when he covers

    I will post when I read(but next 2 wks I will not be here full days to watch)

  41. 41
    Denise Says:

    Spoke too soon-just posted reducing oil shorts-Mr K

  42. 42
    Denise Says:

    Small portions into panicky market to stay disciplined

  43. 43
    Denise Says:

    Also my voodoo man went long Dug-said cover around 29

    I am selling some and buying back some gassy stocks

  44. 44
    Hoss Says:

    Z

    Thanks for the Blackbeard info

    Don’t know if you caught this

    Bloomberg reporting Canodover raised bid for Expro

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av6Hmkzu4eUU&refer=home

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Thanks D.

    and Thanks D.

    I was just looking at the energy sector indexes and they appear to approaching support. OIH and XNG especially close to support. XOI has a little further to pull back which is helping DUG to outperform. Lots of things have had a 5 to 10% haircut in the last 3 days…due to higher commodity prices. DO for instance was pushing towards $150, now $135 and that is such a long term play that the pullback is pretty unwarranted given their cheap multiple.

  46. 46
    Fred Says:

    Thanks D.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Hoss – no I had not seen it and that stinks.

    It’s a 2% overage to HAL’s bid, so you’re looking at about $3.46 B.

    This is pressuring HAL’s shares as the market now thinks HAL will have to come with a substantially higher bid, say $4 b. Not what I wanted to see but this is a good example of why I wade into positions and don’t swing for the fences at the opening at bat. I won’t double down now but will wait for the market to fully digest this news and do a little more digging on the likelihood that HAL pays more or not.

  48. 48
    Denise Says:

    Sorry meant to say he said Dug target to take profits at 29- sell not cover

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the headsup Hoss. I was just dumbly watching it go down as my news ticker had not reset on the story.

  50. 50
    Denise Says:

    Cramer bulling Hal in a colulmn-
    site is free today

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Oil has completely sold this mornings rally across the front months, July now up $0.15. This may boost the broad market a little.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Denise – gotta link to that?

    Nicky – your broad market timing looking to be spot on again!

  53. 53
    Denise Says:

    Z-De at support if you like the global food thesis-I bought some to put away today

  54. 54
    isleworth Says:

    Z – XCO and PQ are now both sub 4X est 2009 CFPS. Getting very near trough valuations. Saw some insider selling by a Director and a VP at PQ. Any thoughts?

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    DE also has a hand in some wind development projects, small but apparently growing business for them.

  56. 56
    Denise Says:

    http://www.realmoney.com

  57. 57
    uop Says:

    zman;
    is CHK attractive or is this dying ?

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    PQ – I’ll wait for Tuesday on a little name like PQ. Not a lot of reason being used and this is a light volume day so moves are being exacerbated. Saw the Clements sale and is was an option exc and sale, no biggie in my book. He still owns 9x what he sold.

  59. 59
    Dman Says:

    Wow, 70% in 8 weeks, that is serious price discovery.

    Todd Harrison noted that F & GM made good (if obvious) high-oil shorts, with their status as financials-in-drag thrown in for good measure. So obvious that I didn’t think of them.

    Nicky, #27: if Iran heats up, $150 will look cheap, honest it will. I’ll post an Iran update shortly (more of a Washington update really), but the shorter version is that former WMD & intelligence analysts say Bush will hit Iran. The only thing crazier than that scenario is all the previous exploits in the US-Iran history, so even though it it crazy, even crazier things have happened before. They haven’t had the heavy-duty consequences that this will/would have, but that’s another issue. Todd Harrison has been saying that he thinks the recent run-up in oil has a heavy hint of iran about it & I tend to agree. Lots of bits of news are flowing that seem below the radar of the major media but would be picked up at hedge funds etc.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    CHK is down with the group.

    Oil now off $0.60. Broad market should start waking up soon.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the link D. I agree with him on both the HAL and NBR calls and think he needs to add to his thesis Canada (see news in post today) and Mexico, which has bids out for several hundred land rigs right now as they try to salvage their production profile.

  62. 62
    Dman Says:

    Clarifying #59: The 70% referred to Z-comment in #26

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    SD – two officers buy shares.

  64. 64
    ram Says:

    Oh, I read that Cramer was “bullying” HAL and that was why the stock was falling. Need coffee fast.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Dman – how that could be good for WGO I cannot see.

    Morning Ram, I thought the same thing and couldn’t believe it knowing his previous stance. Suffice it to say he is still busily over-simplifying the gas story but at least he has service story moving higher.

    CNBC saying stocks having worst week in over three months.

  66. 66
    Dman Says:

    Z – when did the Tristone NBR upgrade hit? If it was after the open it seems to have had no effect at all (?)

  67. 67
    Dman Says:

    Z – erm, I think my caffiene deficiency is becoming critical, but WGO=??

  68. 68
    Denise Says:

    Have a great holiday everyone
    -have to go to 8th grade grad lunch with my baby boy who now towers over me!

    Mr K now at 6-2-mentions media says nothing about oil reversal

    I say it was that stupid crude ticker that did it! Guaranteed to work every time

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Dman – I think it was after the close but am not sure. Those guys have some swing in energy and the stock is essentially flat in a sea of deep red so to say it has no effect, well, I just don’t know about that. They could have invented low cost teleportation on a day like today and still be red so flat is not bad.

    One thing about a long string of green days is that when a couple of red days come along it turns people, myself included, into avid watchers of the tick chart. This is frustrating and not good for your health. My advice is, “When in doubt sell half”. I stole that phrase from a friend who stole it from someone else and really it should be augmented to say, “and then verify your doubt and act accordingly”. This is what I try to do and falls back to my, “always have a thesis and THEN a chart and not JUST a chart methodology.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Thanks Denise and have a great and safe long weekend!

  71. 71
    ram Says:

    Good morning ZMAN. Thank you for the CFPS table. What are your thoughts on UNT – options or stock?

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    WGO = Winnebago. Talk about an obvious short. Bad trader though as it is thin. Tried to short them years ago and they were always very resilient to higher gasoline prices.

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    WGO – looking at chart, apparent not resilient any more, lol.

    Ram – anytime and I plan on expanding that section in the new FAQ when it is launched in 20xx.

    UNT – name from the past, will have a look, think they have an E&P sub as well as the rigs.

    Back in 20 minutes.

  74. 74
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Looking @ WLL June $95C;Stock -$1.75 but option -.20 Make any sense to you?

  75. 75
    Dman Says:

    Oh, I get it, WGO the stock. No you’d think it would be a bit of a downer and indeed the stock has halved in the last year.

    Agree re NBR not doing badly today; that’s why I said “If it was after the open it seems to have had no effect”. But I guess analysts usually do things when market is closed, don’t they. More coffee needed here.

    Couldn’t agree more about the need for a thesis. And to be frank I’ve never seen any other trader able to convert fundamentals into trades in the Z manner, also known as the 500% method. Who needs charts when you’ve got the stocks on a string 🙂

  76. 76
    Sambone Says:

    MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)–Mexican crude oil production and exports fell sharply
    during the first four months of 2008 as output the country’s main oil field
    recedes, reported Petroleos Mexicanos on Friday.
    Total oil production slid 9% to 2.88 million barrels a day compared with the
    year-ago period, while exports plummeted 13% to 1.48 million barrels a day.
    Waning output in major non-OPEC exporting countries Mexico and Russia has
    contributed to a meteoric rise in crude oil prices this year to more than $130
    a barrel.
    Pemex said that Cantarell, the country’s main oil field that has been in
    decline since 2004, saw output fall by 416,000 barrels a day in the first four
    months of 2008, compared with the year-ago period. Pemex has been unable to
    bring enough output on line at other oil fields to compensate for Cantarell.

    -By Peter Millard; Dow Jones Newswires; 5255-5001-5724;
    peter.millard@dowjones.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires
    05-23-08 1222ET

  77. 77
    Sambone Says:

    Uncle Phil

    http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

  78. 78
    Sambone Says:

    Next week

    Deutsche
    Bank Energy & Utilities Conference on Wednesday and Thursday in Miami Beach,
    Fla.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    No longer 500% though, down to just under 400%. 🙁

    Scoopy – are you looking at puts on WLL? I am not remotely tempted to have puts on that name.

    Still checking the waters on the HAL Expro counter offer.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    So much for my these that the broad market might lift with lower oil.

  81. 81
    ram Says:

    BUD is being chased by INBEV – Dutch. I wonder why overseas Co’s haven’t chased E&P Co’s at a double discount? I remember that COP came to the rescue of UNOCAL when a Chinese CO was bidding.

  82. 82
    Fred Says:

    ram – re # 81 That was CVX that took Unocal.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Sam – thanks, there’s one other energy conf next week.

    Ram – your tax dollars at work. There is a general xenophobia towards the concept in Congress.

  84. 84
    elijahwc Says:

    Re: #32

    KDN – Kaydon

    Nothing on the Wind Farm turns without them.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Friend of the blog sends this to me the headline “does this feel like a top?”

    GBR New Concept Energy: Color on recent strength (12.75 )

    GBR is trading 17% higher in pre-mkt trading after gaining ~60% yesterday on the Wednesday night announcement that it had changed its name to New Concept Energy. The co said the change is appropriate in consideration of its new direction — the exploration and production of non-conventional energy sources. The co also said “we are concentrating, for the present, on the acquisition of mineral leases seeking shale sourced natural gas.” The co had previously announced its intention to acquire rights and develop shale sourced natural gas in areas including the Fayetteville Shale area of Arkansas

  86. 86
    ram Says:

    The reason why I say COP, is that under the UNOCAL signs – big retail gas presence in CAL. – ConocoPhilips Company is in smaller print. I wonder if COP just bought the retail part?

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Thanks Eli – I did see KDN, ball bearings, not sure what else.

    Also have TRN who as a small part of their biz runs Trinity Structural Towers. Going to do a little piece here next week.

    Might be better to take a small basket of stocks or play an alt energy ETF many are thin and don’t have options.

  88. 88
    ram Says:

    KDN produces large ring gears for high capacity rotation systems – tanks, cranes, wind machines.

  89. 89
    Pete Says:

    Magnetek MAG

    makes power inverters for fuel cells and wind turbines

  90. 90
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Re # 74 WLL June $95 Calls option off -.20 stock off $2+. seems lopsided to me

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Thanks Pete, have added to my wind list.

    So far:
    AMS
    TRN
    ZOLT
    KDN
    MAG
    VWSYF

  92. 92
    Sambone Says:

    NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) – Gasoline values eased on
    Friday in the U.S. Gulf Coast and the Midwest but cash RBOB
    differentials rose notionally in the New York Harbor on refiner
    buying interest, traders said.
    “We’re seeing RBOB buying from refiners in the New York
    Harbor,” said a trader, citing refinery issues such as the
    recent shutdown of a crude unit at the Girard Point section of
    Sunoco’s 335,000-barrels per day Philadelphia refinery.
    nN16431564
    Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA, he added, was also
    bidding for conventional gasoline in the NY Harbor after
    cancelling at least one RBOB cargo due to ongoing work on a
    catalytic cracker at one of its refineries there.
    Other cash oil traders, however, said dealings in most
    grades were wafer thin with players already out for the May
    24-26 Memorial Day holiday weekend, leaving any gains mostly
    notional.
    “There’s no market really, everyone’s on holiday,” said a
    second gasoline trader in the Harbor.
    Overall, U.S. Memorial Day travel is seen slowing for the
    first time since 2002, hit by record-high fuel prices and a
    slowing economy. Some 37.87 million Americans will travel for
    the holiday, down 0.9 percent from last year, auto and travel
    group AAA had said in a survey. nN15289109
    U.S. crude oil futures rose Friday as traders eyed a
    slipping dollar, French strikes affecting tanker traffic and
    remained defensive ahead of the long weekend. Gasoline futures
    also rose while heating oil extended gains. O/N O/R
    For refinery outages, click REF/US

    U.S. GULF COAST
    Cycle 30 61 grade ultra-low sulfur diesel slid lower,
    shedding 0.75 cent to trade at 10.00 cents over the June NYMEX
    heating oil screen as cargo exports to Europe and South America
    are waning.
    Same cycle 74-grade low sulfur diesel dropped 2.00 cents to
    trade at 6.00 cents over the screen.
    Cycle 31 conventional M2 gasoline continued to drop on a
    slightly higher July futures screen benchmark despite the onset
    of the summer driving season, trading over 2 cents down at
    12.00 cents under the screen.
    August rates for M2 traded at 9.00 cents under the screen.
    Cycle 31 M1 was pegged at a 5.00/5.50 cent premium to M2.

    NEW YORK HARBOR
    Prompt F2 reformulated was said bid higher at 3 cents over
    the June NYMEX print, up from 1.50 a day earlier. Meanwhile
    anymonth F2 was said done at 2 cents over, up from 0.50/0.85
    cent over a day earlier.
    M2 conventional was pegged at about 13 cents under, up from
    13.50/14 cents under, traders said.
    Price differentials for distillates fuels were a mixed bag
    going into the Memorial Day weekend as June heating oil futures
    traded about 3 cents per gallon higher on the NYMEX.
    Ultra-low sulfur diesel, widening this week’s decline on
    thinner exports interest, was offered one cent lower at 18
    cents over the benchmark June heating oil futures.
    Jet fuel traded at 10.50 cents, down from 13 cents over and
    kerosene offers fell to 11.50 from 15 cents over futures amid
    lower demand from airlines. Heating oil was up a tad at even.

    MIDWEST
    Chicago cycle 3 gasoline fell back into negative territory,
    pegged at 1.00 cent under the June RBOB futures to flat to the
    screen from the 1.50/2 cents over seen Thursday as recent
    refiner buying was seen satisfied.
    May rates were seen at 4.50/3.50 cents under the screen.
    supplies ahead of the Memorial Day holiday.
    Cycle 3 ultra-low sulfur diesel slipped from 12.00 cents
    over to talk at 10.00/11.00 cents over the June heating oil
    futures screen, with June rates at 9.50/11.50 cents over the
    screen.
    Ultra-low sulfur diesel was seen holding at half cent
    premium to on-road low sulfur diesel.
    In Group Three, prompt N grade gasoline was seen at
    6.50/5.50 cents under the June futures with any May barrels
    traded at 6 cents under.
    Group ultra-low sulfur diesel fell from 10/10.50 cents over
    the screen to 8.75/9.75 cents over the heating oil screen.
    (Reporting by Haitham Haddadin and Janet McGurty)

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Scoop – OHHHH, thought I read you wrong. That does seem a bit shallow of decline given the move in the common. I’m happy to own the longer dated calls here (Septembers) and will add more if the name really weakens, maybe more near and far month calls.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Sam – agree with that last comment about a wafer thin market. Like watching red paint dry in the stocks too.

    DJIA looks to be moving tick for tick inversely to crude.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Anybody see a reason for the strange little bounce in WH? I continue to hold and agree with all the points the opco analyst made following the 1Q08. This is one I plan to hold for quite some time (2 or 3 years minimum which in the universe of an option traders is several lifetimes). I do see a couple of potential snags in that they are under-covered being a Chinese firm and that their government could impose price controls on their OCTG in country sales to stem inflation. But they are gearing up U.S. sales capacity and with the resurgence in drilling and all the cries of “where’s the pipe” it seems like a nice pure play with fairly strong margins and the ability to grow.

    X – I’m going to come back into the name, probably next week, I may go instead with MT as they raise their commitment to the OCTG market.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Oil ripping higher now, up $1.50 at 132.40 and they may take a shot at todays high (133.40) and then at the $135 mark.

  97. 97
    ram Says:

    Bosch Rexroth makes the gear boxes that controls motion for the wind machines. Companies have to wait 24+ months for prototype components for new products from BR because their capacity is focused/tied up in the wind market.

  98. 98
    Sambone Says:

    By Anna Driver
    HOUSTON, May 23 (Reuters) – Encore Acquisition Co EAC,
    an oil and gas exploration company which put itself up for sale
    this week, is likely to draw interest from both big and small
    suitors whose coffers are full of cash, thanks to record crude
    prices, analysts said.
    Encore, which owns oil and gas properties in the Permian
    Basin in west Texas, the Haynesville shale in northern
    Louisiana and the U.S. Rockies, said on Wednesday it was
    exploring strategic options because the market is undervaluing
    its shares.
    “A number of exploration and production companies could
    pull off this acquisition,” Pavel Molchanov, analyst with
    Raymond James said, noting that Encore’s market capitalization
    is a modest $3 billion.
    “Even if oil prices were well below where we are today the
    acquisition of Encore would be significantly accretive to any
    purchasers, given that incredible strength in oil and gas
    prices,” he said.
    On Thursday, crude oil futures climbed to a record intraday
    high above $135 per barrel.
    Companies with complementary oil and gas assets that may be
    interested in acquiring Encore include Occidental Petroleum
    Corp OXY, Noble Energy Inc NBL and Anadarko Petroleum
    Corp APC, Raymond James’ Molchanov, said.
    For example, Occidental has operations in the Permian basin
    and the U.S. Rocky Mountains, while Noble and Anadarko both
    have properties in the Rockies.
    Another energy company that may be interested in some of
    Encore’s assets rather than the entire company is Chesapeake
    Energy Corp CHK, Phil Weiss, analyst at Argus Research,
    said.
    “If they were to split up the assets and the price were
    reasonable, I could see Chesapeake being interested in the
    Haynesville part,” Weiss said.
    In March, Chesapeake Chief Executive Aubrey McClendon said
    Haynesville may be the company’s most significant find and it
    was looking to lease half a million acres in the area.

    GOOD VALUE?
    The announcement surprised some investors because the
    company’s stock is up more than 90 percent so far this year,
    not a typical performance for an unvalued stock. Still, some
    analysts said they see room for upside.
    “With Encore’s discounted valuation versus its peers and
    upside to net asset value, we believe this announcement will
    yield continued outperformance,” investment bank Simmons & Co
    told clients on Thursday.
    For example, Encore has about 21 percent upside to Simmons’
    net asset value of $81 per share, it said.
    And if buyers for Encore do emerge, then the odds of
    oil-driven deal frenzy go up, David Heikkinen, head of
    exploration and production research at Tudor, Pickering Holt &
    Co Securities, said.
    “If you do see a Chesapeake or an Apache APA do a large
    onshore deal, then you are going to see an immediate focus on
    some of the smaller, oily names,” Heikkinen said.
    Potential takeover targets include Arena Resources ARD,
    Brigham Exploration Co BEXP, Berry Petroleum Co BRY,
    Concho Resources Inc CXO and Rex Energy Corp REXX,
    Tudor Pickering, said.
    Shares of Encore fell 27 cents, or 0.41 percent, to $65.73
    on the New York Stock Exchange at mid-afternoon.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Ram – got a symbol for Bosch, not coming up for me. Looks like a five letter foreign adr at $5/sh, is that it?

  100. 100
    Sambone Says:

    We’ve struck Sand!

    http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8631039552406621945&hl=en

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    At last check EAC had 6,000 acres in the Haynesville. A much better play would be PQ, for the money.

  102. 102
    ram Says:

    Don’t have symbol for Bosch. I believe it does trade in Germany. It’s domestic competion is Sauer Danfoss, SHS. SHS is reaping the rewards of Bosch not taking any new orders for certain markets. I will inquire if SHS is getting into the wind market.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    Thanks Ram

    Sam – I don’t what that is but it made me laugh on a red Friday so thanks.

  104. 104
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Hey, I do what I can!

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: Entered PQ July $22.50 for a dollar on a 5% drop in the stock.

  106. 106
    apbd Says:

    Sam:
    Is that what they mean when they say:
    ” Go pound sand?”
    apbd

  107. 107
    Fred Says:

    Thanks Sam. Here’s an excerpt from a WSJ article:

    Recent Trades Signal Recovery for Refiners

    By TENNILLE TRACY
    May 23, 2008
    NEW YORK — The rising price of oil has taken its toll on oil refiners, but options traders say the worst might be over for these companies.

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    Fred – I wonder why reports assign credence to the goings on in options land.

  109. 109
    bill Says:

    on drys # 33,34

    I agree with the stay away for now.

    They tend to sell off after earnigs After q4 it went from 90 to 58..so consider 60 a good support

    I saw an article today which means lower rates if true.. ill post it for you

  110. 110
    Dman Says:

    Z – one windy stock (hmm, not sure about that term) that Cramer has been pushing is Otter Tail (OTTR), a kind of mini-conglomerate that owns wind tower maker DMI Industries. So it isn’t a pure play and I gave up trying to analyse it, but that’s not to say it won’t work.

  111. 111
    bill Says:

    Measures to protect air quality during the Beijing games may knock the dry market.

    The Beijing Olympics threaten to bring the dry-bulk market screeching to a halt.

    Chinese analysts predict that preparations for the games this summer will affect the market when steel mills and power companies close down for two months to ensure good air quality during the games.

    Yang Shi-Cheng, a senior researcher and director of Cosco Research&Development, says steel mills like Shougang Steel in and around Beijing, as well as other factories and power units, will be shut down or reduce operations from late July through to late September.

    This is sure to stifle demand for iron ore and coal with a cooling effect on bulker rates.

    Other factors linked to the Olympics slated for 8-24 August will have a further dampening effect including the suspension of work on infrastructure projects in Beijing from the end of June.

    Yang told the Mare Forum conference in Sorrento that the Chinese authorities are expected to apply emissions restrictions to six surrounding regions with further measures to come if smog fails to clear.

    For the moment, the Chinese have not released any detailed shutdown orders, while some dry-market players doubt their ability to go ahead with the plan.

    Herman Billung, managing director of Oslo-based bulker owner Golden Ocean, believes the Olympics will have little effect on the market. “The market might slow down ahead of the Olympics to prevent pollution but if that’s the case, it will rebound afterward,” he said.

    Billung also questions the practicality of closing down steel mills and power outfits, which he believes cannot be done.

    He expects the market to be balanced in the coming year in terms of supply and demand.

    He refers to continuing slippage of delivery schedules from Chinese yards, which will limit supply, and points to the need to rebuild infrastructure after the recent earthquake.

    The move is one of a series of factors that are likely to see rates slide in the coming weeks.

    Capesize rates are currently trading at an average of over $200,000 per day, while panamax rates are around $90,000 per day.

    The focus on the Olympics is not the only uncertaintly casting a shadow over the market. To date, the biggest has been jitters over the price of iron ore, currently the subject of talks between Australian mines and Chinese steel companies.

    In recent weeks, steel mills in China have been rushing to import iron ore before the price goes up if and when a new contract is agreed.

    This year has already seen 110 million tonnes of iron ore imported in the first quarter a rise of 10.5% on the previous year.

    The import rush could be brought to a halt once the Olympics and the iron-ore talks are sorted out but the subsequent effects could last longer.

    Along with a possible recession in developed economies, decreasing exports will reduce the demand for dry-bulk imports including iron ore and coal, says Yang.

    He says shipping is at a key point and that the confidence of the main players will be decisive in deciding the direction of the market.

  112. 112
    bill Says:

    tops a small player is facing a proxy fight
    from qvt

    http://topships.ir.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?FilingID=5957570&Type=HTML

  113. 113
    zman Says:

    Thanks Dman, will add

    Bill – thanks for the article, could topple very lofty coal prices temporarily too and that sector has been on fire.

    Was that the TOPSD you used to talk about around $3?

  114. 114
    Fred Says:

    Z – Like examining a corpse I guess.

  115. 115
    zman Says:

    Fred, what I meant was, why does the press, CNBC and the Journal and others assign value to the fact that call buying is up in a group right now. Option guys watch each other and move in heard mentality worse than do stock investors. Not to pick on Najarian who is a smart guy but I recall him saying buy DRYS when it was at $131 last fall and that was the absolute top.

  116. 116
    Fred Says:

    Z – I think they want to be the first ones right but they could be lemmings off the cliff of course. Thanks

  117. 117
    zman Says:

    Fred – I hear ya, and I guess I’m one of the those “options guys” too, but I can’t recall a time when I bought an option, at least this year, where the thought process was “oooh, oooh, lots of other guys are buying XYZ, let me at it”

  118. 118
    scoop006 Says:

    “X” now +

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    Scoop – lots of afternoon dip buying going own. NBR now green. WLL went from down $2 to down $0.30 in a matter of minutes. I don’t think we do anything nutty like go green before the close though and I’m going to wait for next week on more tubes.

    Wow, WH bakc to where I bought it at $8, 9.3%. Patience, patience, patience.

  120. 120
    ram Says:

    With summer here, could NG have a resurgence based on NG used in large generators for electricity? Gas and Diesel prices took quite a jump overnight in CAL. I don’t know where our lower income families are going to get the extra money to keep going. There is only so much the state and fed can do. It’s like a rubber band that’s ready to snap.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    Housekeeping Item: Please do not forward the blasts to friends and family. Doing that is stealing from my 4 year old daughter and unborn peanut shaped seismic anomaly. Getting emails from non-subscribers about recent trades. Thanks.

  122. 122
    Sambone Says:

    Z – You should start a pool and see who can guess which airline will really go belly up, which means they shutdown first and when.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    Ram. Re gas, the expectation is a bit warmer than normal summer for the west and cooler in the east. If imports stay depressed, the heat waves and hurricanes will bolster prices.

    Hear ya re low income and fixed income folks. If you think gasoline is expensive, wait until you see your cooling bill.

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    But then I have to give something away for the winner and you know I’m tight. I still say HK goes away. The pool is still open there.

    Wow …SD

    E&Ps still coming off their lows.

    GDP, another Haynesville play has been green for some time and strengthening. Its good to see the late day fishing in the group.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    Sam – what, no movie quotes before a 3 day weekend?

  126. 126
    ram Says:

    FWIW, there is probably help from Mom traders on certain energy stocks. Is it possible without upsetting whomever, to indicate the IBD score? An odd request, but it’s like the wine trade: the crowd will always stampede for the higher scores. My head hurts asking this question.

  127. 127
    Sambone Says:

    If anybody clears through North American Clearing, looks like they are toast.

  128. 128
    uop Says:

    zman:
    have a nice weekend, dont burn too much gasoline.

  129. 129
    Sambone Says:

    Z – You don’t get to play.

    Look, it’s all completely chicken soup.
    It’s what?
    It’s kosher. As Christmas.
    The Jews don’t celebrate Christmas, Tom.

  130. 130
    Sambone Says:

    They’re armed.
    What was that? Armed? What do you mean armed? Armed with what?
    Err, bad breath, colorful language, feather duster… what do you think they’re gonna be armed with? Guns, you tit!

  131. 131
    Sambone Says:

    Lock, stock, the fuckin’ lot.

  132. 132
    zman Says:

    Thanks UOP, I’ll be burning avgas and demand for that has been down, lol.

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    i know, i know

    what happened to North American Clearing?

  134. 134
    Sambone Says:

    Hello son, would you like a lolly?
    Little Chris: Piss off, you nonce!

  135. 135
    apbd Says:

    Great holiday weekend to all. And, Z, don’t go over the speed limit. We need you.
    Blessyaall,
    apbd

  136. 136
    Sambone Says:

    National Clearing only letting people liquidate.

  137. 137
    Sambone Says:

    By Hyun Young Lee
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    OTTAWA (Dow Jones)–Crude oil futures ended higher Friday, but took a breather
    from its record-breaking rally as investors positioned themselves ahead of the
    long Memorial Day weekend in the U.S.
    But trading volumes were still relatively firm, underpinned by ongoing supply
    concerns and expectations that crude’s blistering run is far from over.
    Light, sweet crude for July delivery settled up $1.38, or 1.1%, at $132.19 a
    barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE futures
    exchange closed 98 cents higher at $131.49 a barrel. Settlement prices weren’t
    yet available.
    Investors used Thursday’s dip in crude prices as a buying opportunity, sending
    crude oil toward $134 a barrel early in the session. They were also keen not to
    get caught out by any events over the three-day weekend.
    “Prudence would dictate that much more could happen over the weekend to send
    prices soaring rather than crashing,” John Kilduff, vice-president for energy
    risk management at MF Global, said in a note to clients.
    There were few headlines to spook the market Friday, but a series of supply
    warnings this week have rattled composures. They were capped off Thursday by a
    report that the International Energy Agency – energy watchdog for the most
    industrialized nations – is in the process of lowering its forecast for
    long-term global oil supply. The news sent crude rocketing to an all-time high
    of $135.09 a barrel.
    “There’s enough concern in this market that it’s difficult to stay away, even
    if it’s a holiday,” said Scott Meyers, senior trading analyst at Pioneer
    Futures in New York. “The big players, the funds, they’re all here today.”
    But the drive higher was tempered by losses in heating oil futures, which have
    become a proxy for diesel, another distillate fuel. The market tends to shift
    its attention from heating oil to gasoline as the North American winter ends
    and the start of U.S. summer driving season looms, traditionally on the
    Memorial Day weekend. But perceptions of a growing squeeze on global diesel
    supplies as demand in China surges has sparked a massive run up in heating oil
    prices. They defied crude’s pullback Thursday to break $4 a gallon after
    China’s customs administration reported a 17-fold jump in diesel imports last
    month, and tested these levels again Friday.
    Front-month June heating oil settled down 8.87 cents, or 2.2%, at $3.8656 a
    gallon. June reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, settled 6.63 cents, or
    2%, higher at $3.3960 a gallon.
    And it’s likely that heating oil, rather than gasoline, will continue to lead
    crude around by the nose.
    “Heating oil’s been a monster lately,” Meyers said. “This is not going to be
    your typical summer.
    A weaker dollar also dampened the rise in crude. Investors have been watching
    the greenback’s fluctuations more closely since it started to slide, flocking
    to oil and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.
    The dollar fell to near its all-time low against the euro earlier, and ends
    the week 1.3% against the European currency and 0.9% against the yen. And
    currency analysts – even those bullish on the dollar’s longer-term prospects –
    say the near-term future for the dollar is looking shaky.

    -By Hyun Young Lee, Dow Jones Newswires

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    wow NG up 0.20 to 11.88!

  139. 139
    Popeye Says:

    My pilot friends tell me the small private planes are just about grounded over fuel costs here in the “OC”.

  140. 140
    scoop006 Says:

    Z RE #93 bot WLL June$95C @$3.60 now $4.80 bid

  141. 141
    Fred Says:

    Thanks, and great holiday to all.

  142. 142
    VTZ Says:

    Not all, us Canadians had this Monday!

    We aren’t the 51st state yet.

  143. 143
    zman Says:

    Apbd, thanks, I’ll tell the pilot, have a great one.

    For anyone paying attention I’ve been bidding PDS all day and not going to get it and not going to chase.

  144. 144
    Dman Says:

    Z – I have a call spread in PDS and the short ones are now higher than they were when I sold ’em, whilst PDS is lower, i.e. they pumped up the IV.

  145. 145
    ellwodo Says:

    HK – certainly hope someone wins your pool. If I collect on my Dec 25s as a result, I’ll be happy to pay you for a lifetime subscription.

  146. 146
    zman Says:

    Everyone note that Scoop is a much better trader than Z. I say that in all seriousness. Same names, better returns.

    V – which way is the looney headed relative to the dollar? Have a good short weekend!

    Dman – I just don’t see how estimates don’t start marching up there very soon. That’s a massive increase in the well count.

    Ellwo – Sounds like a plan!!!

  147. 147
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Sold Them @ 345pm for $4.90

  148. 148
    VTZ Says:

    Loonie is above the greenback now. We are at 1.02 us dollars per loonie. We’ve been at and around parity for a while.

    I think the usd strengthens compared to cad because we are basically a petrodollar and have apreciated significantly as a result of oil and uranium, potash, ag, etc.

    I think once the us starts tightening rates again due to inflation, the cad goes back to ~0.85 per usd (maybe by the end of 2009 because canada will likely cut 1 more time). Then again, I am in no way a good person to ask about forex but that’s what lots of the forecasts are calling for.

  149. 149
    Dman Says:

    Z -just got filled on some PDS $22.5 leaps

  150. 150
    VTZ Says:

    Z – Also, US economy hurting = Ontario and Quebec hurting

  151. 151
    Sambone Says:

    Ok troops, Stick a fork in me, I’m done. Have a good three day. I think overall market will be down next week.

    Tini time!

  152. 152
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Are you nuts? I’m not even in the same league. I’m simply a rookie here,trying to learn a hobby and have been hurt too many times holding to long,so when I can make $1300 within 2 hours I’ll take it everytime. Just remember it could not have been done without you.
    I know the entire ZMAN community echo my thoughts.

  153. 153
    zman Says:

    VTZ – thanks for the thoughts on the C$.

    Sam – good weekend to you and may you be wrong about next week, lol

    Scoop – I’ve been watching and your timing is good.

    Nice stepping up move in PQ late afternoon. Really think that one turns out ok but had wanted to wait until next week to add, just looked silly to me down that much.

    I’ll have the wrap out in a few hours for those of you with nothing better to do.

    Have a great one guys. It’s beer thirty somewhere all the long weekend!

  154. 154
    bill Says:

    113

    yes the symbol is now tops and they had a 1 for 3 split

  155. 155
    Wyoming Says:

    Z,

    Don’t forget about TS for the pipe play.

    Also, put my name in the hat for a private take out of HK, i.e Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. and GS combo. ADNE already has Canadian tight gas properties. 5B market cap would be nothing for these folks.

    Kept meaning to bring that up as all other options are practically taken.

  156. 156
    zman Says:

    Thanks Bill

    Wyoming that’s a fair point but can you imagine the uproar that would cause in Congress. Can’t let those foreigners get a hold of our national resources, our seismic, lol.

    GS is part of that umbrella offer competing with HAL for Expro. They are very forward thinking chaps those GS guys.

  157. 157
    Wyoming Says:

    It would be an interesting sell. Dear congress instead of screwing a US company by not opening to drill and increasing windfall taxes, here feel good about yourselves and tax a foreign entity.

    ADNE purchased the PXD stuff in Canada and I think their people are out of Chicago? They could always start a shell company, perhaps a young up and coming Bush needws to start a Zapata.

  158. 158
    aaatest Says:

    test test test, mobile working?

  159. 159
    zman Says:

    working P, bad signature on you

  160. 160
    Petra – ZEBAdmin Says:

    how about now?

  161. 161
    zman Says:

    bueno, beuno, gnight.

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