24
Jan

Thursday – Simultaneous Oil & Natural Gas Inventory Reports

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In Today's Post:

1) Estimates and thoughts on today's simultaneous oil and gas reports from the EIA

2) A merger among the service companies has potential positive ramifications for some forlorn onshore driller names (PKD) and (GW)

3) NE announces another strong quarter and some strong forward looking commments.  Should bode well for (ESV) and (RDC) and for the deepwater drillers. 

4) A housekeeping note on the expanded holdings tab - Holdings Wiki.

Commodity Watch

  • Crude Oil fee $2.22 to 86.99 yesterday, never recovering from the effects of the broad markets' early swoon which occurred after the close of Nymex trading. This morning crude is trade up between $0.75 and $1.50 but I'd give the rally little credence until the EIA numbers are released.

EIA Inventory Outlook: (expectations from the Dow Jones Survey)

exp-011808aaa.jpg

  • Refinery utilization is seen rising 0.1% to 87.2% after last week's steep, unexpected drop of 4 points.

Crude Comment: If we get a smaller build than 2.0 mm barrels for crude and we could get a bit of a relief rally back to $90. Imports are unlikely to be able to maintain last week's toward pace so the wild care is demand from refiners. 

  • Natural Gas traded off $0.05 to $7.62 as a second day of recession woes beset prices. This morning gas is trading up nearly a dime ahead of today's inventory report. See yesterday's post for near term thoughts on gas prices.

My Estimate: 175 Bcf withdrawal. Cold weather similar to two weeks ago with lower imports

  • Weather: Heating Degree Days (HDDs): 224. Second highest level of the season and in line with normal and year ago levels.
  • Imports: 8.7 Bcfgpd
  • Storage Comps:
    • Year Ago Withdrawal: 166 Bcf
    • 5 Yr Avg Withdrawal: 162 Bcf
    • Closest Comp This Year On Weather: Week ended January 5, 2008 had 225 HDDs, imports of 9.6 Bcfgpd and saw a withdraw of 171 Bcf

Street Consensus: 158 Bcf (from the Bloomberg survey). 

Next Week's withdrawal should be even larger as this week's HDD's jump to 251 in the CPC's forecast but milder weather is expected to follow for the end of the month 

 

Holdings Watch:  (Tuesday's bottom fishing expedition looked like the dumbest thing I've done in a while until the afternoon).

The holdings tab is updated, click here to view

Calls:

  • (DRYS) - After a long hiatus I'm re-entering the dry bulks via (DRYS) calls. Added the March $60 calls (DQRCL) for $5.60. Last bid $6.70.

Puts: None held. 

Stocks of Interest Today:

Global offshore driller (NE) Reported Strong 4Q Numbers after the bell:

  • EPS: $1.29 vs expectations of $1.29. The results include a 6 cent charge for a previously disclosed rig fire which may or may not be factored into analysts estimates so the operating number would be $1.35. This is head and shoulders above year ago levels of $0.74.
  • Revenue: $0.83 B vs exp of $0.84 B
  • 81% of fleet committed for 2008; 40% for 2009.
  • "our markets are strong and demand, particularly for the deepwater assets, remains high"
  • they have 7 deepwater units that will roll over in 2008 or 2009 (the implication is at higher rates) and they will add five addiitiion units over the next 2 years. This is out of a total of 62 shallow and deep capable units.
  • Conference call at 2:00 pm EST today.
  • Should have positive implications for (ESV) and perhaps (DO), (RIG), (ATW)
  • I'll be adding a position here and taking a hard look at ESV which doesn't report until the end of February.

Alice Chalmers Acquires Land Driller Bronco. (ALY) is acquiring (BRNC) for a 22% premium. Drilling stock prices have been falling for some time now. Sector deal speculation could give at least a short term boost to (PKD) and (GW), both somewhat larger than Bronco but at the small end of the drilling pond and both of which have been suffering from the continuing weak north American drilling markets as their stock prices have been whithering for months.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (EOG) and (STO) from hold to buy at Citi,  

Housekeeping Watch:  There is a new tab called Holdings Wiki that subscriber rkpagdala and I have been discussing. 

  • To allow a quick place to put the symbols and that they be drag and droppable to get a quick quote on systems that allow that and
  • To provide a place for subscribers who wish to disclose some or all of their holdings to the group. Just drop them in a comment on the tab and I’ll put them in the top of the page.

I don’t know if there’s a big call for either but I was asked for this and I’m nothing if not accommodative.

 

109 Responses to “Thursday – Simultaneous Oil & Natural Gas Inventory Reports”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    fwiw, the editor of the morningstar stock investor newsletter is putting buy recommendations on CHK and COP this morning.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    looks like SPWR bricked estimates on high costs, taking the solar sector back down a bit.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    knock, knock, this thing on?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    EOG running on the citi upgrade

  5. 5
    Bob Says:

    SOLF secondary at $15

  6. 6
    Bob Says:

    Z-Any opinion on NOV?

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Bob – more of an educated guess that its due for a bounce but you could tell that from the chart. Rig tech stuff is definitely seeing a deceleration in growth trends this year as the rig charts flatten out after years of up and to the right action. I think it does fine and is a little cheaper now than some of those wh will also suffer these same trends (SII).

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    What a difference a day makes: energy sector way outperforming the market today. Service, gassy E&P,

    ZTRADE: APC Feb $55 for $2.80

  9. 9
    TTupp Says:

    good enty on drys my good man

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Thanks T.

    BTU back up to $50…like to see the gas number first.

    NE earnings and comments are dragging ESV and RDC up.

    PBR shot back over $100 and COP and RIG bouncing so I’m pretty please at present

  11. 11
    Sambone Says:

    9:23 am EST

    Nymex Crude Pares Gains Before US Inventory Data

    By Matt Chambers
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures pared gains Thursday before key U.S. inventory data expected to show a build in crude oil and gasoline stockpiles, but were still up from the previous day’s three-month settlement low.

    Strength in global equity markets after recent steep falls buoyed prices in early screen trading as traders searched for signs of the health of the U.S. economy and tried to gauge the impact of any slowdown on world oil demand.

    Light, sweet crude for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 78 cents, or 0.9%, at $87.77 a barrel. Prices had risen as high as $88.65 but pared gains as the data, which is expected to be price-negative, loomed.

    Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 88 cents to $87.50 a barrel.

    In the Department of Energy data, due at 10:30 a.m. EST, analysts are expecting crude oil inventories to have risen by 2.1 million barrels last week, according to the average of 16 forecasts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts.

    Gasoline stockpiles are seen rising by 1.4 million barrels and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are expected to be unchanged. Refinery use is also expected to be steady, at 87.1% of capacity.

    The data, put out by the DOE’s Energy Information Administration unit, has been delayed a day because of Monday’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

    “Short of a shocker in the crude supply or the refinery run figures, we expect price reaction to prove brief and limited as the market quickly re-focuses on the equities,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a research note.

    Crude oil has tracked U.S. equities closely in recent sessions, as fears of a looming recession have knocked about 12% off prices since they reached an all-time intraday high of $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3.

    Front-month February reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.42 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.265 a gallon. February heating oil rose 2.38 cents, or 1%, to $2.4469 a gallon.

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  12. 12
    TTupp Says:

    china only country to close down. well sweden too but thats worse than watching the canadian stock market

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: CHK Feb $37.50 for $0.80, doubling my initial position.

  14. 14
    TTupp Says:

    sold those vlo calls i bought on accident at the open for a +$3000 mistake. thank god though. too bad it wasn’t TSO lol

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    T: that’s the kind of problem to have, lol.

    TSO could still see the lower 30s before margins start to improve. Numbers in 20 minutes.

    Big gas number (170+) and I’ll be back on SWN

  16. 16
    TTupp Says:

    i was wondering the drop in the uso while the cl stayed steady, but the front month expired yesterday? is that right?

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    t: correct, it expired yesterday.

  18. 18
    TTupp Says:

    BTU chart look intriguing, esp with a huger than expected build. they’re cheap too

  19. 19
    TTupp Says:

    actually scratch that cheap part

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    SPWR just killed, SOLF too on that note offering. SPWR call at 1:30cst so it overlaps the NE call but will listen to replay tonight.

    btu, aci, fcl caught a broker sector downgrade

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    gasoline up 5.0
    crude up 2.3
    distillate up 1.3

    bad #s for for refining

    gas number: 155 Bcf – pretty in line, light to me.

  22. 22
    sane Says:

    gasoline demand inched just under 9M for the first time in a long time

  23. 23
    TTupp Says:

    vlo shrugging it off ad moving with spx

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Imports were off slightly , utilization fell to 86.5% so it looks like the refineries are starting the maintenance season early which will eventually turn products for them. The 5.0 mm barrel build in gasoline is somewhat shocking given the fall in production.

    Thanks Sane…and that’s how you get to such a big build in gasoline, that and fairly strong imports.

    Let me know when you see API.

    Crude taking the numbers in stride rallying from $0.55 at time of report to up a buck now. Cushing took a dive too.

    Tupp: I see that but the refiner moves often get it wrong…falling gasoline demand, a build to over year ago stock levels on the product that’s going to soon be most important (gasoline) and a bigger than expected build in distillates can’t help cracks. Gasoline is off slightly now.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    natural gas shrugging its shoulders at the 155 Bcf gas storage withdrawal, up 10 cents in quiet trading at $7.72.

  26. 26
    sane Says:

    The market can crash now

    Gaming Stock EFT

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    at least PBR is acting like it made a major discovery in the last few days now.

    Sane – LOL, no kidding. By the way, recent oil etf USL is a 12 month strip tracker designed to take away some of the problems you have with USO and contango.

  28. 28
    sane Says:

    API

    Crude Up 1.5
    Gasoline Up 2.5
    Distillates Down 362K

  29. 29
    sane Says:

    API inventory totals

    Crude 294.5M
    Distillates 135.2M
    Gasoline 220M

    Almost inline with the EIA

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sane

    NPR slamming coal industry and MEE over mining practices like their way of mining is news. I say unless Diane Reem uses only blankets to stay warm and candles to light her house than she can shut up. I’m really sick of the media attacking and re-attacking the mean old dirty energy companies and not presenting the other side of the story. Sorry for the rant.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    COP is on fire.
    PBR at 103 yippee-skippee

  32. 32
    sane Says:

    Agreed.

    I would love to see all of these green leaf peoples without electricity.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    seeing a lot of news stories on carbon sequestration…definitely an infrastructure play there this year.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    for the APC wanted to be notified, today seems to be a slow day on the site so please note that I did re enter APC this morning.

  35. 35
    TTupp Says:

    cant believe im saying this but its a boring day

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    T: think people have PTSD

  37. 37
    scoop006 Says:

    PTSD?

  38. 38
    freeflow Says:

    I certainly do over here. Slowly making some money back but I’d like to see APC hit 65 before earnings.

    Maybe if we get another cut from Ben we’ll see oil shoot up to 100 again?

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    post traumatic stress disorder.

  40. 40
    TTupp Says:

    ?

  41. 41
    ram Says:

    How about MSLD (Multiple Scud Launching Disorder).

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    As in, after seeing his portfolio get decimated for five straight days, Scoop had PTSD.

    FF – I don’t want to see $100. $90 ish is fine. The E&Ps will make a killing there and beat estimates. But today’s data was a mixed bag for crude as imports did not hold the elevated levels like I thought they wouldn’t but demand from refining is dropping earlier than usual.

    Ram with the cheap shot, thanks pal.

  43. 43
    ram Says:

    Cool, I’ve mooved up to pal. Btw, is the earnings spreadsheet current with the names you care about (including solar)?

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    just for this week. The big spreadsheet will be out Sunday.

  45. 45
    Sambone Says:

    Uncle Phil

    http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

  46. 46
    Nicky Says:

    Hi all, finally got my internet connection up and running reliably again – what a week for it to choose to go off for 12 out of every 24 hours!

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Afternoon Nicky, I was just about to doze off.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    pretty much the reaction you would expect from the oil and ng reports today although I’m a little surprised at HO, maybe the cold is holding it up.

  49. 49
    Nicky Says:

    Seen a chart this morning that shows the Dow will be at 3650 by 2017!!!!

  50. 50
    Nicky Says:

    Ha Z – # 49 should wake you up!

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    got any broad market levels now that everything has returned to normal, lol?

  52. 52
    Nicky Says:

    Short term broader markets I believe are tracing out a correction which should take them to about 12600. This will be a 3 wave affair – we are almost at the end of the first leg and then should see a move back to about 12150 before the 3 leg up.

  53. 53
    apbd Says:

    I’ve got one better than that. Brian Wesbury forcast Dow at 15000 by year end and S&P at 1625. I’m keeping that one on my BB.
    Today calls for the Zname in brighter green.lol
    apbd

  54. 54
    Nicky Says:

    Fib levels for the Dow:

    38.2% is 12,454
    50% is 12707
    61.8% is 12960
    78.6% is 13321

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    I like Apbd’s forecast better although I really don’t see it happening. Sent you an email yesterday … did you get?

    Thanks for the levels Nicky. Market looks digestive, last I saw Fed meeting percentage chance of another 25 bps cut was 65%.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Ram – just think of all the positions we didn’t take on the way down. Could have been a lot worse.

  57. 57
    Sambone Says:

    Spanking FSLR again today

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Sam – yeah, SPWR had high costs in their quarter and SOLF had a bond offering. With everyone talking about the improved efficiency of process in the sector this is not what they wanted to see.

  59. 59
    apbd Says:

    Zman:
    Yes, thank you.
    apbd

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Tupp – if you are still looking for LCD monitors Dell is giving away 17″ screens for $138 U.S.

  61. 61
    Nicky Says:

    Z – I am hearing them say that it may have been the unwinding of the rogue traders positions at SocGen that took the market down on Monday – ie Bendaid was duped into a rate cut for the wrong reason!

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Nicky – had he done the cut before global markets tumbled I would have thought he had conviction in his statements last week that he recognized the seriousness of the problem. But he waited and only acted when the futures were getting slammed. Doesn’t give you a lot of confidence that he gets it even now.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    wow, oil suddenly off to the races, up $1.75

  64. 64
    Nicky Says:

    Fed just confirmed they didn’t know about SocGen before they made the rate cut but saying still comfortable with their decision – well they would say that wouldnt they!
    Why did oil jump on that news?

  65. 65
    Sambone Says:

    Technically Speaking, Rally Could Fade

    By PALASH R. GHOSH
    A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN

    NEW YORK — Don’t get your hopes up.

    Technical strategists generally believe that Wednesday’s huge rally (and today’s follow-through) is largely being influenced by technical factors, particularly short-covering, rather than any change in investor sentiment. This suggests that this “rally” might peter out rather quickly, as the dark clouds of a possible U.S. economic recession and continuing credit crunch stubbornly hover above the investment landscape.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average underwent a tremendous 632-point swing Wednesday (the biggest such fluctuation in more than five years) to finish the session up a handsome 2.5%, after being down as much as 2.7% intra-day. But the index is still down 7.2% year-to-date, and has declined more than 13% from its record close last October.

    “My guess is that the rally yesterday was partially driven by short-covering, given how beleaguered sectors like retail, REITs, housing, transportation and banking all outperformed very strongly,” said Katie Townshend, chief market technician at MKM Partners. “For example, the PHLX housing sector index was up an impressive 9.5% yesterday. We had an intra-day turnaround and breadth data finished strongly positive.”

    Indeed, market internals were quite bullish Wednesday, she noted. Breadth on the NYSE was about 3-1 positive, with an up/down volume 2.8-1 positive. The NASDAQ’s breadth came in at 3-2 positive, with up/down volume that was 1.3-1 positive.

    Townshend also pointed out that a couple of days ago the stock volatility benchmark, VIX, peaked at August 2007 levels, at around 37.5. “The VIX, which serves as a contrary-indicator, had reached a high, suggesting the market was due for rally.”

    News of a possible bailout of bond insurers may have provided the catalyst Wednesday, but short-covering appears to have been the driving factor behind the extent of the gains, said Chris Burba, short-term technical strategist at S&P. “Price and volume action on Tuesday-Wednesday is characteristic of a capitulation following a steep downtrend,” he said.

    Burba noted the bears took the market down further in very heavy volume, but the indices reversed to close higher. “The recovery yesterday was straight up,” he said. “When it occurs after a steep decline, this type of behavior is generally characteristic of short covering because the bears are rushing for the exits en masse. Conversely, accumulation generally unfolds through dip-buying so it takes longer and is choppier before an uptrend gains momentum.”

    However, Townshend is not entirely convinced that we are in a bear market yet. “If indeed this is a bear market, then this rally, which would be a “reaction rally,” should meet resistance, and quickly exhaust itself.” Townshend is looking for breakdowns to be confirmed on a consecutive closing basis, which has not occurred yet in the major indices, in her view. “This rally could continue today, tomorrow, and then we have a better chance of this being a whipsaw or a shakeout,” she noted.

    Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Advisors, said prior to Wednesday’s rally, markets witnessed a “climax sell.” “People threw in the towel,” he said. “On Tuesday, we saw the Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 all sink to new 52-week lows. Right now, if they all just go sideways they will all close above where they ended last Friday. This is classic climax selling, suggesting a bottom may be in place.”

    Looking at the 100-point chart, with respect to the Dow, Zaro thinks the next area of support could be at the 10,700 range, where it bottomed at during three separate occasions in 2006. “I am not expecting it to go down that low now, since we are close to a 20% sell-off from 2007 peaks in all these major equity indices,” he said. “The average calendar period that the market stays in a correction phase is about 125 days. Right now, we’re into a little more than 100 days of this correction from top to bottom. Thus, the calendar probably favors more of a bounce.”

    Looking ahead, Zaro thinks the first half of the year will be a trader’s market. “I think we may have a test of the areas where major indices made bottoms in recently,” he said. “Until investors have a better idea what the Fed’s policy on the economy, it will likely remain a trader’s market.”

    Burba is treating any gains from current levels as a “bear market rally” that will be unsustainable. He noted that in the severe post-Millennium Bubble bear market, “rallies stretched as long as 16 weeks and achieved gains of over 20%. In milder bear markets, rallies have been shallower and shorter.”

    Currently, Burba sees no reason to expect a bear market as severe as what we saw in 2000-2002. “A more likely scenario would be a rally of a few weeks to a couple of months, followed by a resumption of the downtrend from October, and then the start of a new bull market late in the first half or early in the second half of this year,” he concluded.

    (Palash R. Ghosh has been writing about U.S. and international equity and bond markets for the past 16 years.)

    —By Palash R. Ghosh, Dow Jones Newswires

  66. 66
    Dman Says:

    Off to the earnings races?

    Re. 6: NOV heavily oversold (no kidding) & earnings on Feb 6 may be exerting a pull. Either that or it’s a tractor beam from extra-terrestrials, but something is lifting it up 8%

    Z – I gather you are holding APC calls (reports Feb 4) but not APA (reports Jan 31). Don’t like APA down here?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Dman – No, I do like APA down here, just haven’t gotten around to getting in yet. Volatility has been extreme there of late, 6 point down days then up…came close yesterday but got distracted. Not sure if they beat 4Q by a landslide or only a little…either way going to be a great quarter and no reason to think guidance for 2008 will change or that that will be a disappointment.

  68. 68
    Dman Says:

    From the Department of Interesting Facts and the Department of Forlorn Land Drillers:

    During the recent mayhem, beaten-up Canadian driller PDS managed to stay above its lows from Dec and early Jan and is now trying to resume an up-trend started on Jan 11.

    What can this mean? Predicting a turn in Canada?

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Need to own EOG and maybe DVN too but I’m feeling kind of lazy today.

    Natural gas wrap out one minute after the close with pretty charts on gas demand…a must read!

    Contemplating the sale of my COP calls. I got the beat I wanted and the stock has performed well even through the market’s crap. Thinking to sell and re-enter calls (up 80% in two days) on a down oil, gas or market day.

  70. 70
    Nicky Says:

    Oil up nearly $2 on good builds – ridiculous.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    PDS – I said I’d stay away from that one about 3 or 4 months ago when asked on the site. While I don’t think anybody is calling for a return to the good old days of rampant Canadian drilling it does llok to be stabilizing.

    Re: Oil up 2. Well, it had fallen $13 bucks to gotta figure a good sized build was factored in. Also, you had another week of declines at Cushing which the traders watch even if we think it matters little. Finally, imports didn’t hold on to last week’s surge so the idea that all that OPEC increased production is heading to U.S. shores is kind of put on hold, lol.

  72. 72
    Nicky Says:

    Nothing to do with Bush’s rescue plan which means that the economy is off to the races again (NOT) and oil can head back into the stratosphere then?

  73. 73
    Nicky Says:

    Products underperforming or is oil over performing…

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Happy with DRYS despite its not making new highs every thirty seconds. It is trading in a more orderly fashion however, I’m not yet committed to re-entering the group in a substantial way yet and if the DJIA decides yesterday was hogwash DRYS will likely get sacked. Note that I entered March calls so I can ride out a bit of pain if that happens.

    I don’t Bushes plan does much for oil as most people are planning to spend the $800 on Iphones with the remainder on Itunes although it might do a little for UPS’s consumption of diesel for those deliveries.

    I think they are both over-performing, especially products and especially HO.

  75. 75
    Nicky Says:

    Nancy Pelosi doesn’t look she has slept in a week but reassuring us there is plenty more to come if this doesn’t work! It doesn’t work so bring it on….

  76. 76
    TTupp Says:

    z can you send me a link to these monitors? are they monochrome from P.E.T systems?

  77. 77
    Sambone Says:

    N – You sound like me.

  78. 78
    Dman Says:

    Z – I do remember your stay-away call on PDS from months ago: it was me that asked. You said it looked ready for another leg down & that’s exactly what happened in Nov/Dec.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    T: pet monitors, lol.

    http://www.dell.com/content/topics/topic.aspx/us/segments/bsd/promos/landingpage/snp_monitor_offers?c=us&cs=04&l=en&s=bsd&~lt=popup

    Sambone and Nicky … the same person?! hmmm…or twins separated at birth.

    Dman – ok, good. sometimes even a blind squirrel finds a nut and shorts it. Will do some digging for some more recent thinking here.

  80. 80
    sane Says:

    I had a PET in 79 😛

  81. 81
    TTupp Says:

    i already have a external plugged into my monitor port, i wonder how i could configure this to have two externals on my laptop

  82. 82
    TTupp Says:

    i had a pet in kindergarten

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    best way is to go with the NEC ubisync ubs monitor.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    sorry, samsung ubs monitor

  85. 85
    freeflow Says:

    anybody here?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    always FF, what’s up?

  87. 87
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Is your weather info. still for above normal temps for the rest of winter?

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    As of Monday night it was, beginning around Jan 27. So far they have been very wrong.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    oil up $2.70 or 3% now. Recession, what recession, lol. Market has the memory of a gnat and the patience of a teenage boy on prom night and about as much conviction as Bernanke in his actions.

  90. 90
    freeflow Says:

    no comments in an about an hour. I thought tini time came early today?

  91. 91
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Your buddy Aubrey bought more shares late last week. You would think that would actually mean something one day.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    I think the fact that he has been buying continuously since the beginning of time mutes the significance of an individual purchase. The fact that he is the second richest guy in Ok and that that wealth came about via CHK says something too however.

  93. 93
    ram Says:

    I was talking about a CHK break out while we are still young.

  94. 94
    Nicky Says:

    oil looks a lot more excited about the stimulus plan than the broader market.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    FF – just catching up on a little reading.

    RAM – I have no response to that

    Nicky – $800 of gas money?

  96. 96
    TTupp Says:

    re monitors: i think i would have to get 2 of those ubisync monitors to daisy chain them together. i already have a nice one that i want to keep. plus the dell ones are a good deal, and the ubisync ones are ubreexpensive .

    there has to be a way to plug a second external monitor into my Toshiba laptop. maybe the s video port or usb.

    any computer geek types out there that can help me out with how to hook up a second external monitor (first one is already hooked up to my monitor out slot, whatever its called) to my new toshiba satellite laptop

  97. 97
    TTupp Says:

    also, z call me crazy but wouldn’t it be visual spatially better to have a square monitor opposed to a widescreen one, specifically for viewing charts? especially when you take more space off the bottom for oscillators and volume graphs it distorts the view laterally- does that make sense?

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    To me its a question of total screen acreage. On my laptop I have three screens with the laptop screen in the center. I stretch my trading platform across all three. The screen to the left is mostly market watch and I can turn it to portrait for that purpose. The screen to the right is actually dead center and above my desktop screen which is directly in front of me and where I type this. Then I have another panel to the right (also connected to the desktop) which holds an extra browser and where I sometimes stash excel. So five screens in all and just about enough space. For the charts, just put them where ever I wish but generally they are on the top monitor.

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Gas post in 16 minutes. Good reading for the bathroom.

  100. 100
    Sambone Says:

    3:39 pm EST

    Nymex Crude Gains On US Fiscal Stimulus Plan

    By MATT CHAMBERS
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures rose from a three-month low Thursday after the Bush administration and congressional leaders agreed on a growth package designed to avoid a major slowdown in the U.S. economy.

    The fiscal stimulus plan, which includes tax relief to individuals and incentive to business, outweighed builds in gasoline and crude oil stockpiles, as well as a sharp drop in gasoline demand, reported by the Department of Energy in weekly inventory data.

    Light, sweet crude for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled $2.42, or 2.8%, higher at $89.41 a barrel, the biggest one-day gain for a front-month contract since Jan. 2. March Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange settled up $2.45 at $89.07 a barrel.

    “The market is being more driven by macroeconomic news” amid concerns of a steep U.S. economic slowdown, said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA in New York. The DOE inventory data “will tell you that this market should be down by $1.50, not up. Clearly the market is being driven by exogenous factors.”

    On Wednesday, crude oil prices settled at their lowest price since Oct. 24 on concerns a slowing U.S. economy will also impact global energy demand. The futures remain down more than 10% from their intraday record of $100.09 a barrel set Jan. 3.

    Crude oil stockpiles rose 2.3 million barrels to 289.4 million barrels last week, the DOE’s Energy Information Administration said in its report. That was in line with an average forecast of a 2.1 million-barrel build in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 16 analysts.

    Gasoline stockpiles rose 5 million barrels to 220.3 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 1.4 million-barrel gain, and distillate stockpiles fell 1.3 million barrels to 128.5 million barrels. Analysts had been expecting no change in distillates. Refinery use fell 0.6 percentage point to 86.5% of capacity, compared with expectations of no change.

    Implied gasoline demand fell by 152,000 barrels a day to 8.964 million barrels a day, the lowest since the week ended Feb. 24, 2006.

    Not all analysts saw the report as price-negative, pointing to a decline in stockpiles at the Cushing, Okla., delivery point for Nymex crude oil futures and the surprise slump in distillate stockpiles as factors that could support prices.

    “The further erosion of distillate inventories will rekindle downstream support to crude prices, notably when colder temperatures return, after all, winter is far from over,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, an analyst with BNP Paribas Commodity Derivatives in London, in a research note.

    A weaker dollar and stronger Dow Jones Industrial Average also supported crude prices. The euro rose to a fresh intraday high of $1.4771, its highest in a week, and the DJIA was recently up 0.7%, aided, like oil, by the U.S. growth package.

    “Today’s close in nearby crude above key resistance at the $89 area would appear to position the trade for a strong finish to this week,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates. “While we still view such a development as heavily contingent upon additional upside follow through in the equities, we will note the second consecutive draw in Cushing crude supplies and renewed weakening in the dollar as factors capable of supporting values independently.”

    Front-month February reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 3.2 cents, or 1.4%, to $2.2828 a gallon. February heating oil rose 5.32 cents, or 2.2% to $2.4763 a gallon.

    More information on settlements and highs and lows for futures on Nymex and IC platforms can be found by searching for the following headlines:

    Nymex Light Crude Oil Close

    Nymex Harbor RBOB Gasoline Close

    Nymex Heating Oil Close

    ICE Brent Crude Oil Close

    –ICE Gas Oil Close -By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    sam – did you see the turn in most of the solars? wild day!

  102. 102
    Popeye Says:

    TTUP, if the desktop is set to the native resolution of the monitor the aspect ratio will be preserved.

  103. 103
    Sambone Says:

    For Nicky, my twin

    News Letters of the National City Bank of New York. (Now CitiBank or CitiCorp)

    November 1929; The collapse of stock speculation has overshadowed all other events in business during the past month. We do not believe the fundamentals of the business situation have changed. The countries farms, mills and factories are intact. All over the country, general business is proceeding in a healthy and orderly fashion in marked contrast to the chaotic conditions in the stock market.

    December 1929; The essential fact is that business itself is healthy and has not been involved in over expansion as in the stock market. There is no collapse of commodity prices. There is no inventory problem. There is no breakdown of the banking system. There are no great business failures, nor are there likely to be.

    July 1930; Since the stock market collapse of last fall, the average business man has been more inclined to question his faith in the recuperative power of the country. From most other quarters of the globe come reports of similar difficulties besetting trade and emphasizing the widespread character of depression.

    November 1930; We do not believe that business will go much lower, and we think the next important movement will be upwards.

    June 1931; The country is in the midst of a severe business depression and there is relatively little demand for money for either speculative or business purposes.

    October 1931; Excess caution on the part of bankers in making loans is one of the reasons why business is slow to climb out of depression. Everyone seems to have a story of a worthy borrower who is unable to obtain a loan.

    January 1932; Of all the markets, the decline in bonds has been most severe. Amid the confusion of the times, those who would buy bonds have been plainly uncertain as to what debts are good and what are not. This continues to make financing, and even refinancing virtually impossible.

    Note, in fact the October 1931 statement was exceptionally valid. Bankers were losing money all over the place, and called loans in abandon. They were trying to save themselves, were frightened, and did not care what damage they did to others, only that they saved themselves. Just get the money back. A major reason for the depression.

  104. 104
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Nah, been trading. Just got finished.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    gas summary post up with a little expounding on gas demand.

  106. 106
    Nicky Says:

    Sam re #103 – wow! Always in denial….

  107. 107
    TTupp Says:

    some good numbers after the bell. we should continue the upswing tomorrow

  108. 108
    Nicky Says:

    SPX has some resistance in this 1360 area. I suspect the first leg is close to being done.

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    The first iteration of the 4Q earnings calendar is available on the Calendar tab here:

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/subscriber-data/calendar/

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