30
Nov

“exceptionally alert and flexible” Friday

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In a speech last night Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed needs to be "exceptionally alert and flexible" suggesting that further rate cuts are on the ivory tower's Christmas list. He essentially said further rate cuts may be needed to keep the economy from swirling the bowl due to a worsening credit crunch, the continued slump in housing (which is giving new meaning to the term "house poor"), and rising energy prices (which you may note will only be exacerbated by said cuts as the dollar is sure to continue down the road to pesoville thus boosting oil). Makes you wonder if his speech writer fully thought through including that last point. Anyway, the market is happy and that's all anyone will care about for the next 15 minutes or so.

Commodity Watch

  • Crude Oil. The effect of Enbridge's pipeline blast on crude prices came and went within a matter of hours. January crude reached as high as $95.17 before dipping back into the red and then settling up only $0.39 at $91.09. This morning crude has broken $90 and is down $2.20 to around $88.80 in fairly active and somewhat panic looking trading (once it breached $90 volume in the overnight session doubled within minutes). Support appears to be around $86. I'd say it is increasingly unlikely that OPEC makes more than a token gesture if it does anything at all regarding production quotas at its Dec. 5 meeting. Look for the dip buyers to enter the market, slowly at first but building towards Wednesday next week.
  • Natural Gas. Fell slightly yesterday after a weaker than expected withdrawal. Cold and little else is driving/supporting prices here. We need to see some real withdrawal numbers in the next two weeks or gas prices are going to tumble into the $6's (which will present us with a nice buying opportunity). This morning gas is trading up a nickel but I wouldn't trust it to stay aloft with oil exhibiting a near term technical breakdown.
  • Yesterday's 12 Bcf withdrawal was light of my number and consensus, which is odd in light of the weather.  Last year saw a withdrawal of 27 Bcf. Since it was colder this year than last and imports were lower that number at first glance would point to higher domestic production volumes.
    • Recent Production Shows Negligible Increase. U.S. dry gas production averaged  51.6 Bcfgpd through August (most recent available), up exactly 1 Bcfgpd from the 8 months ended August 2006. If we assume that year over year production is close to this delta in November it would account for 7 Bcf of the difference from last year assuming producers aren't stripping more liquids out of the gas stream which they are given the high price of oil and therefore natural gas liquids. So anyway, 7 bcf is probably about the max difference due to production before you consider things like the Independence hub which might boost November by another 2 to 3 bcf for the week. 
    • The Contango Made Me Do It. The other piece of the puzzle was a strong contango between the front  (December) and second (January) month contracts. A 30 cent gap probably inspired many to keep their gas in storage a little longer to get the higher price. Now that January is the front month the gap to the second month is less than 6 cents meaning we could see a bit bigger than weather attributable withdrawal next week.
    • Anyway, that's my long winded way of explaining why I bricked and why it may (at least from the second bullet above) to a bigger number next week.
  • The Gas Storage Situation as it stands today:

gas-table-112907.jpg

We're still at "full" storage levels. As you can see from the first graph below that becomes aberrant in about two weeks. Markets abhor the aberrant.

gas-graphs-112907.jpg

  • Wintry Weather Watch: Gas weighted HDDs for this week are 164 up 20 from last week's reading which gas us the 12 bcf draw yesterday. Accuweather is predicting the first real mess of a winter storm will blossom out of a low pressure system centered over Baja. The system's moisture will combine with cold over Colorado and Utah before driving across the nation's midsection towards the Northeast by late Sunday. The prospect of this storm is currently keeping gas afloat.

 

Holdings Watch: No action. I continue to be cautious...may take the SU puts off the table today.

Stocks of Interest:

  • (ATW) very good deepwater driller. Ram asked about it in comments yesterday after I failed to notice them report a huge 3Q earnings beat . They just blew out numbers and we should be watching them for a trade after the big bounce subsides (may be worth a smaller OOTM call trade before the bounce dies, like on the first bit of profit taking tomorrow before it re-rallies to new highs). Long term they probably get gobbled up if they ever get cheap enough for it to be a quickly accretive deal…DO could snap them up and not blink. The only concern I have with them is rig risk. With only 8 rigs chances are that sooner or later you get an unscheduled refit that sacks a quarter or two. That is a great time to buy. Will look at the quarter a little more closely tonight and get back with you in the post.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: will add in comments.

Jill Watch: Jill is my mother-in-law. Take all the stereotypical crap you've heard about mother-in-laws, put it in a bag and toss it off a bridge. Jill and I are good friends. Calling her mom was never awkward. Everyone loves Jill. And after nearly a decade of fighting early onset Alzheimer's, a fall last weekend has left her with an irreparable brain hematoma, and very little time left. We're doing everything we can to comfort her at this time and I very much appreciate your kind comments and emails of support.

 

 

74 Responses to ““exceptionally alert and flexible” Friday”

  1. 1
    kaman Says:

    Z- Thanks for sharing the current situation with your wife’s mother…I’m sure more than a few of us were curious what was going on. You and your family are in our thoughts and prayers today.- Keith

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    7:24 am EST

    Brent, Nymex Crude Down More Than $2/Barrel

    By Nick Heath
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    LONDON — Crude futures fell more than $2 in London trade Friday amid heavy selling of ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting.

    Traders said expectations the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase output when it meets next week was chief among the fundamentals weighing on the market.

    But the falls gathered momentum as technical selling took over, driving Nymex light, sweet crude to below $90 a barrel — and to its lowest level in a month at $88.52 a barrel.

    Prior to the slide, analysts had predicted a move below $90 a barrel would open the door to further losses.

    “If the price drops below $90, the correction process will no doubt accelerate rapidly, making a level of $80 a barrel quite likely in the next few weeks,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.

    At 1201 GMT, the front-month January Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was down $1.88 at $88.32 a barrel.

    The front-month January light, sweet, crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $1.81 lower at $89.20 a barrel.

    The ICE’s gasoil contract for December delivery was down $33.25 at $796 a metric ton, while Nymex gasoline for December delivery was down 354 points at 222.94 cents a gallon.

    The crude markets appeared to pick up where they had left off Wednesday, and before oil prices spiked more than $4 higher Thursday on news of an explosion on a pipeline that carries crude oil from Canada to the U.S.

    Operator Enbridge Inc. shut down its four-pipeline system that feeds the U.S. with approximately a fifth of its oil imports late Wednesday after the explosion on one line.

    Three of the four pipelines restarted Thursday, returning the 1.8 million barrel-a-day system back to 75% of capacity. The fourth 420,000-barrel-a-day pipeline, damaged in the explosion, is expected back on line in two or three days, Enbridge officials said.

    Prices gave up virtually all of their gains later Thursday when it emerged that most of the system had been brought back online.

    And with pipeline jitters looking to have waned further Friday, prices fell steeper still, with ICE Brent and Nymex crude dropping to their lowest levels in two weeks.

    “We saw a big pullback earlier in the week, we had (U.S. Department of Energy) crude figures out — everything was pointing south ahead of Enbridge,” said Adrian Bingham-Walker, a trader with CMC Markets in London.

    “We’re still seeing a fall-off from there — it’s just a continuation of the trend of falling prices.”

    The increasingly unlikely prospect of near-term crude at $100 a barrel was also encouraging investors to take profits, he said, as the oil market switched its focus back to next week’s OPEC meeting, set to be convened amid a clamor of speculation that the organization will boost production.

    OPEC will ministers will gather in Abu Dhabi Dec. 5, with crude markets expecting the announcement of an increase of at least 500,000 barrels a day in its production quota.

    But with OPEC ministers maintaining that any output decision will be based on market conditions at the time of the meeting, some speculated that crude losses could be capped.

    “We think shorts will be reluctant to drive prices much lower from here in the run-up to the OPEC meeting knowing full well that a more concerted decline could prompt OPEC to scuttle a planned quota increase,” said Edward Meir, an analyst with MF Global.

    Expectations of a further cut in U.S. interest rates offered some support for crude prices Friday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted in a speech Thursday that another rate cut may be needed to bolster the U.S. economy.

    Such a move is seen as positive for crude prices, already sensitive to demand implications stemming from recent warnings over slowing global economic growth. Lower interest rates would also help weaken the U.S. dollar further, a significant factor in recent price strength.

    “In recent months, crude prices have increasingly tracked movements in the dollar. The market expects more interest rate cuts by the Fed over the next year, and dollar weakness is unlikely to stop before rate cut expectations have bottomed out,” said analysts at Standard Bank.

    Hopes for a resolution to the standoff between Iran and the West over Tehran’s nuclear program were loosely pinned on talks between Iranian and E.U. officials Friday.

    The European Union’s foreign policy chief and Iran’s top nuclear negotiator held talks on Iran’s nuclear plans in London, but hopes of a breakthrough appeared slim amid a growing threat of new United Nations sanctions.

    Oil markets have grown uneasy at the increasing tensions between Iran and the U.S., fearful that any escalation could add to instability in the important oil-producing region.

    But the looming OPEC meeting carried the most weight in crude futures trading ahead of the weekend.

    “This will be the last weekend before the OPEC meeting and the flat price will remain exposed to soundbite headlines on its outcome,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix.

    —By Nick Heath; Dow Jones Newswires

  3. 3
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Our prayers are with Jill and your family.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks for the kind words guys, will be a bit more in touch today unless something changes. Hospital is completely wireless and I’ve got CNBC on in the rooom wiht subtitles. My father in law told me I’m not a cad.

    Products not taking the beating oil is but refiners will move down with group unless the market plays savior, little early to tell but I doubt. will look for either and exit or a double on my SU puts depending on open. Motley Foolishness ran an article on why you should buy tso, vlo and fto, I essentially agree

  5. 5
    sane Says:

    Z,

    Sorry to hear about your mother-in-law. Your family is in my prayers.

  6. 6
    sane Says:

    ConocoPhillips confirms Alaska natural gas pipe project

  7. 7
    scoop006 Says:

    The CEO of DRYS will be on CNBC @ 9:15 AM today

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    B of A ups VLO and WNR to Buy

    Drybulks looking to run yet again with the market.
    DRYS at $94 vs $70 a couple of days ago. I figure if I double down here thats seals their fate for a fall and I still own the way ootM calls at 125 so we shall see. maybe I’ll add a few but if so it’s going into the mad at your money category.

    Refiners looking to trade a little higher at open. I see people are talking about next stop 80’s. Wow, nothing to indicate that kind of fall except that this traders have the focus of my dumbest rescue dog. I see mid 80s possible, tigtness to make itself plain very soon unless refining doesn’t continue to rse out of maintentance and if thats the case then VLO, TSO, SUN, FTo should all be owned as products are in need of replenishment … more in a minute

    Thanks a lot Sane

  9. 9
    Sambone Says:

    Oil getting spanked

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Sam – getting spanked but off it’s lows. at this point, breaking round numbers like 89 and 88 trigger cascades of selling but there is definitely some buying interest cropping up as well. If I were them I would not touch Jan crude pre 86, just look like that’s were it goes on a simpletons view of the chart. Also, looking at the strip, the incentive to punt for fear of the future is decreasing somewhat as the backwardation that was so steep the last couple of months is flattening out.

  11. 11
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Z.

    May God Bless Jill for all the joy she has brought to the world.

    She is in my prayers today.

    Q.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Thanks Q…she’s sleeping much more peacefully now which is giving us a chance to get a little down time.

    Bernanke saving the market bu what of inflation. this may be the shortest lived set of rate cuts on the books.

    Refiners opening higher

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    like the action in the group today, like I;vebeen saying the energy stocks are not discounting $90+ oil so they really shouldn’t get tripped up by a slide in crude unless it gets out of hand.

    Although,….sU has a had a big direct run with crude and should fall…we shall see.

    DO getting some follow through from yesterday; ATW running hard, not chasing for now.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    that DRYS interview on cnbc starting now

  15. 15
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    What’s the DRYS guy saying, Z.?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    cnbc anchor acts like he works for “idiots r us” research firm. can’t they get faber or someone with a brain to ask questions. they treat this stuff like its standup comedy hour…completely useless.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    he basically just said what their rates were running and that demand would continue to be strong.

  18. 18
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    the Dec 96 jumped a $1 in a minute while I tried to buy it.

  19. 19
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all.

    Z – you hate CNBC!!! All you need is Kilduff and your day will be complete. Talking of the idiot how surprising that he is nowhere to be seen on CNBC today.

    I am glad to hear Jill is peaceful today – it is all you can ask for.

    TA – sorry to disappoint the wti bulls BUT….

    ii up completed at 95.10 yesterday and we are now in iii down with i complete and we are currently tracing out ii with iii to come. Resistance is 89.72 and 90. Only a move above 91.52 would negate this count. We should move substantially lower.

  20. 20
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- You are right on target about that anchor.Sounds like amatuer hour.
    Thought the CEO said they are netting $3M per day.

  21. 21
    Nicky Says:

    Broader market – first leg up is probably getting close to completion although it may yet challenge the 1500 spx region. Then expect a b wave lower most likely next week before another leg up.
    SPX is holding above the 200 dma which is at 1485.

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    DO trade suddenly working very well.

    i’m going to let it run and see if it can break 120. if not I leave.

    Q – its very tough to get in these as they play a lot of games with you in the options plus the stock can be +/- $5 in a matter of minutes which is great if you can buy right or have the luxury of staring at the screen and not working all day. My 125s went from a 0 to $1.50 in the last two days. I’m just going to hold for now as this could be just a nice dead cat bounce with no staying power. stock is cheap but that didn’ matter before.

    Nicky – thanks…I’m clicking away as quietly as I can on my laptop. Bulls could get happy again quick if OPEC says we told you so re oil being well supplied next week and does nothing, lol. Im just happy the group is finally say, hey, we never traded like oil was near 100 anyway so we’re going to move with the market, not the commodity for a bit

    Scoop – mark hanes has always been the comic relief, even back when cnbc was more analysis less babed up spin show.

    Nicky – hsc shut due to dense fog, their goes import support for next wednesdays crude number

  23. 23
    Sambone Says:

    9:58 am EST

    Nymex Crude Below $89/Barrel Ahead of OPEC Meeting

    By GREGORY MEYER
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures dipped below $89 a barrel for the first time in a month Friday ahead of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting on production levels and on profit-taking by traders.

    Light, sweet crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently down $1.93, or 2.1%, at $89.08 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.60 to $88.62 a barrel.

    The selling reflected concerns that OPEC may resolve to ramp up its production quota by at least 500,000 barrels a day when members meet in Abu Dhabi Wednesday.

    “The OPEC news is weighing on the market heavily,” said Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures in Stamford, Conn.

    The market also softened after Thursday’s flat performance, when prices ended up just 39 cents after a blast hit a major pipeline segment in Minnesota, fleetingly raising concerns about a U.S. supply disruption. Three of four of the Enbridge Inc. pipelines closed after the incident are now running again, while the 420,000 barrel-a-day line subject to the explosion remains closed, Enbridge said.

    The accident highlighted concerns about supply tightness in the U.S., and analysts said a similar one with more lasting consequences could easily push crude prices back up.

    “We are not sure that the market gave this event the respect that it was due, largely because of the need by longs losing money to get out,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, a New Canaan, Conn. energy risk consulting firm.

    With the end of the year approaching, traders said some of the selloff was triggered by profit-taking among speculators trying to square their books.

    “This is nothing more than an attempt to spruce up performance sheets at the end of the year,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York.

    But that selling could gather momentum, despite projections that demand will continue to outstrip supply in the future.

    “The more we trade down and trade under $88, the more it looks technically that this could be something bigger,” said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York. “We could see (prices) in the mid-70s.”

    Bentz said high oil prices have been cooling demand growth, and U.S. economic worries are also leaning on oil prices. But a combination of winter weather and the potential for a major supply outage “could easily turn things around,” he said.

    “It’s hard to get too bearish,” Bentz said.

    Front-month December reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 3.51 cents, or 1.6% to $2.2297 a gallon. December heating oil fell 5.15 cents, or 2%, to $2.5256 a gallon. Both contracts expire Friday afternoon.

    The more actively traded contract for January RBOB fell 3.66 cents, or 1.6% to $2.2291 a gallon. January heating oil dropped 5.26 cents, or 2%, to $2.5265 a gallon.

    —By Gregory Meyer, Dow Jones Newswires

  24. 24
    Nicky Says:

    Only for a few hours Z….

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Nicky, right, meant add LOL after the HSC comment. It was backed 50 ships deep last week and imports ran high to the prior week anyway. EIA numbers much better on the 4 week and sometimes they make some sense …sometimes you can just smell the bad math in them. Still I was happy to see Mastercard reports numbers closely match the eia’s weekly gas demand figure…people just don’t care (that much) about high gas prices. Other wise “driving season demand” wouldn’ be only 3 to 400,000 bpd above the offseason levels.

  26. 26
    apbd Says:

    Z:
    Just heard about mom-in-law. Our prayers and good thoughts to you and your family.
    apbd

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Thanks apbd – huge change from yesterday, very peaceful now. I’m glad to be back doing something besides debating the best position for the bed and specific instructions for the dnr wrist band. Glad not be a doctor as well.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    SU breaking down again.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Nicky, can I get your thoughts on Rbob and HO when you get a chance, just looking for some support levels on both, ty

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Re COP’s Alaska ng pipeline: 4 Bcfgpd line, have not seen a timeline but you have to figure at least 4 years … while you would think this would eventualy pummel gas prices you may be looking at a similar sized fall in canadian import volumes by then from a cominbation of falling production volumes and increased domestic consumption by the oil sands players.

  31. 31
    jiveyjr Says:

    re: natural gas supply. All this Barnett production around here is very rapid decline too…they are drilling wells like crazy to keep production curves pointing upward but it will hit a peak too…likely more than four years out tho

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    DO nice, Su Nice

    BTU pulling into range

    jivey, correct re the shale declines. Also much of the core is wet and with oil where it is now they are stripping out more than the usual amount of NGLs to get the most bang for their btu buck. The larger extraction losses keep gas volumes in check, otherwise, we’d be well over 3.6 Tcf now with all the volumes chk and others are tying in.

  33. 33
    jiveyjr Says:

    thx..hadn’t realized that about NGL’s…thought most was dry gas…

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Back when Mitchell (now part of DVN) was developing the play the big constraining factor was gas plant processing capacity. Not all of it wet but a good piece.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Saudi saying market amply supplied again, says remains up in air if they will boost prod next week.

    http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article145199.ece

  36. 36
    ram Says:

    We will keep Jill and your family in our prayers Z.

  37. 37
    ram Says:

    Z – I believe all of us here can’t quantify the appreciation we have for you in balancing a stressfull personal situation and helping us with your knowledge. You are a very strong person. Thank you.

  38. 38
    TTupp Says:

    who else hates when they open the market ridiculously high than it just undoes the the gains from the open within a few hours

  39. 39
    TTupp Says:

    my grandmother is suffering with dementia. a little different, but; nevertheless my thoughts are with you.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Ram – thanks man. I’m just trying to be useful. my father-in-law, now that’s strength. I told my wife, you see me going down this path, put me in the car, point it towards the ocean and remarry while you have your looks. she says I’m only funny looking when I say that. I say nobody should have to go through that.

    T – I too hate the rally rally rally open then slow fade … it’s like they’ve got buyers remorse.

    ? re broad market. Last time we got the cut and sold off. now we’re apparetly in worse shape…are we now looking for 25 or 50 bips or cramer’s full point and do you guys and your sources (denise) think this thing could have legs? I like how some of the stocks are trading in here, like DO and would add with it off its highs here if I thought the market had another chance at a run on Mon. also, btu seeing some pt, that should reverse and roll higher soon but I’d like an up market to do it in. then there are the drybulks which seem to be market tied again. Anyway, all thoughts welcome here.

    T – Thanks. This was diagnosed early on as chronic dementia with ephasia (loss of speech). They only diagnosed it as Alz about 4 years ago but the first symptoms showed up when she turned 50. Best thoughts for your grandmother.

  41. 41
    rseidman Says:

    Z I haven’t been around fpr awhile and thought you might tell me if RIG is on your watchlist?
    When would you buy?

  42. 42
    sane Says:

    My wife’s grandfather pass away about a month ago from Alz. Only found out about it about a year ago, but it got real bad about 2 -3 months before he passed away, but he was 91, my wife’s father was diagnosed with Alz a few years ago at the age of 60. We pretty much take care of him and it is hard, especially when just a few years ago they were a totally different person and at such a young age.

  43. 43
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I’m looking for an Intermediate term rally here on the overall market. Too much pent up cash. I’m overall bearish, but I think the Dow can rally to 13,700, then go back down to the 12,800 area. This is not a stock pickers market but a traders market. Too much volitilty. Triple digit days up or down is now the norm.
    Z – If it helps, I am also dealing with my Mother in law. I have POA and have to make all the decisions. She won’t last another two years, Diabetes, Kidney function failing, been in the hospital 6 times in the past 6 weeks. Got your back, dude. Hang in there!

  44. 44
    sane Says:

    T,

    Re38: This market feels like it is losing steam fast. Even that 300pts a couple of days ago felt like a one day binge buying frenzy. It is not the rah rah go go market of a couple months ago

  45. 45
    Sambone Says:

    R – I think Z will disagree with me, but I’m buying RIG here. If it dips, I’ll double down. My target is $200.00.

  46. 46
    TTupp Says:

    sane your right, no doubt were (you’re) headed for recession, all the ducks are lined up. the thing is recessions are becoming fewer and further between, and less severe each time (right?). all that needs to happen is for housing to bottom- ie next year somtime

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    RE RIG, no I like it up here, estimates for 2009 are closing $20 and long term trends are very stout. I was just waiting on a dip and didn’t want tomess with the conversion…it turned out a lot of people bought on the merge day and then it just ran…holding DO instead ok but not the run RIG has had…hoping for a dip to get and wil wait out OPEC (next Wednesday) as you never know for sure how those dudes are going to boink you.

    Sane- its a verytough road but family sharing that burden is key.

    thanks for the market thoughts fellas, I’m content not to add for now as it looks like we are closer to a mid term top to me than not and there are more shocks to come I’m sure.

    had planned to have a piece on tiny DNE out this week but got behind, hopefully early next but its one I’m going to buy and hold for good long time

    T: yeah…bet the expensive stuff in energy 20ish PE and up gets whacked…also the solars

  48. 48
    TTupp Says:

    sam- i think your right about 200, but if hes talking about buying options here it might be a good idea to wait for the dip since it is has already lost momentum

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    look at fslr, hit 252 all time high today, now flat at 238. bubble,bubble,bubble

  50. 50
    TTupp Says:

    z- i agree about solars, anything that has a 200 pe that cramer touts is gona get illed

  51. 51
    TTupp Says:

    *killed

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    T…exactly…I’m going to make a list starting this week of all those and some of the other alt energy names and even some service names that have rich PEs….contributions welcome. The only thing I hate worse than a momentum stock is an expensive, green energy momentum stock. Don’t get me wrong, we need conservation and alt energy…lots of both in fact but the are Al Gore/Hollywood multiples and many of them will see nasty ends

  53. 53
    TTupp Says:

    my 83 yo grandmother was talking about bying stocks in solar power companies last weekend (~The conrarian indicator, TTupp )

  54. 54
    TTupp Says:

    swet the html programming course i took in my senior year wasen’t a total waste- ie the italics!

  55. 55
    rseidman Says:

    Thanks Z and Sambone.

    Reassuring!

  56. 56
    TTupp Says:

    just sold sme calls on fslr! ahaha i dont even know the first thing about this company or solar panels hahahaha. this should be interesting.

  57. 57
    sane Says:

    T, My knuckle-head neighbor was talking bout buying solar and wind stocks, I almost ran home and sold mine đŸ˜›

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    YHOO once traded at $242 too.

  59. 59
    sane Says:

    Add 57:

    Funny thing about my neighbor is that he asked me who makes the solar panels on my garage, and I told him his employer (BP). He looked at me kinda dumb and says “Well then I already got me a bunch of them alt energy stocks.”

  60. 60
    TTupp Says:

    z- is he a real dumb ass or what lol? i want to know what kind of situation were talking about here hhahaha. buying puts might have been smarter tho, oh well, these trades always work out the best

  61. 61
    Nicky Says:

    TTupp imo there is absolutely zero chance of housing making a bottom next year. It is going to get far worse before it gets better.
    The key is inventories. Now at nearly an 11 month supply.

  62. 62
    Nicky Says:

    Z – just seen your question re rbob and distillates. Let me see where it closes and I will update you.
    This late day rally keeps the pressure on OPEC.

  63. 63
    sane Says:

    N,

    Agreed, I think the housing thing could drag on into 09.

  64. 64
    Sambone Says:

    1:41 pm EST

    Nymex Crude Pushes Past $90/Bbl, Still Down 83c

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    From Market Talk:
    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude reverses some losses and trades back above $90 as traders cover shorts and digest the possibility OPEC won’t increase production at its meeting next week. Reuters reports Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Naimi saying “there is absolutely ample supply” and the need for a production increase “remains to be seen.” Also, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator says the country won’t curb its nuclear plans under pressure from a new UN resolution, Agence France-Presse reports, as geopolitical tensions hover around a major oil producing state. Nymex Jan crude -83c at $90.18/bbl. (greg.meyer@dowjones.com)

  65. 65
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Anybody checked out the 5 day chart on VMC.

    Heck with drilling and pumping the rock.
    Drill, blast, and haul away the rock.

    Up 11% in three days.

    Just set a limit order to buy the stock or the options when it dips down near 80 again.

    You’ll smile one day!

  66. 66
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    It’s kinda boring at the old fishin’ hole today… time to change lures.

    I think I’ll put on a few more sinkers and bottom fish: maybe set a limit buy on CHK for around the 36 level.

    You catchin’ anything over there, Z.?

  67. 67
    Wyoming Says:

    My Cliff Claven moment;

    Wet gas is condensate dropping out, associated with the pressure of the reservoir changing. At reservoir pressure it is all gas. Bad news when it starts dropping out in the reservoir while producing, now there is 2 phases (gas and liquid) and performance can reduce as well loads up.

    BTU content in the FW Barnett is rich, they are stripped out in processing (methane, pentane etc..), we are getting shafted in our company. Too small of a fight to start. Further north is actually in the oil window.

    Lived in Alaska when the stranded gas pipeline issue started really getting debated with Gov. Murkowski (about 2004-it has been around for years ), factor about 8-10 years, lots of issues crossing Canada, environmental impact statements, partners, routes, Native land access etc..

  68. 68
    Nicky Says:

    Wow what a move in wti – now its starting to look like a iii.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    nah, not seeing a lot of sustainable moves plus I’m sleepy and don’t feel like betting late on a Friday.

  70. 70
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    OK, ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZman.

    I hope your weekend ends better than it started.

    Remember, you’re the broad shoulders for the rest of your family!

    Set your stops and log off and be there for them.

    Cheers.

    Q.

  71. 71
    Sambone Says:

    Dow going negative

  72. 72
    Denise Says:

    You knew we would give up all morning gains when “turned on CNBC early this am and Kudlow says were going to be up 300 points today” (kind of begged you to short!

    Remember employment # next wk before you buy. and

    Samborne are you really buying?-makes sense I was selling

  73. 73
    Sambone Says:

    Tini time! Hang in there Z.
    D – Nope, not buying, just took my hedges off. Bght RIG and VLO this week.

  74. 74
    Brian08 Says:

    Z hope all is well…

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