22
Nov

A Free Post Turkey Day Slide Show

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Happy Thanksgiving! As everyone is no doubt sleepy from overdoses of stuffing and tryptophan I plan to keep this 2 day post brief and to the point with lots of graphs and tables and few if any long winded sections from me. After all a picture is worth a thousand words and a thousand actual words would no doubt put you to sleep.

In today's post: 

A) Oil Report Summary

B) Oil Slide Show

C) Natural Gas Report Summary (and a look at historic withdrawals and weather)

D) Odds & Ends

Oil Report Summary

exp-vs-act-112107.jpg

Zcomments -mildly bullish report.

If you're a bull there are a few items from the report you can take note of including:

  • the continued depression of utilization in the refining sector,
  • the first- dip below 5 mm bopd in domestic oil production (obviously we should raise taxes on the oil companies),
  • another bigger than expected draw in distillates as heating oil demand kicked in,
  • and finally, demand for gasoline did not fall again with rising prices at the pump (we just don't care enough about $3 gas to alter our driving addiction habits.

On the bear side"

  • stocks at Cushing rallied (I would tell you that part of this rally is due to curtailled demand over refinery problems) but the number of barrels there did rise.

Oil Slide Show: 

A) U.S Crude Oil Stocks Look Like This (was last week just another Bump in the Low Road?)

crude-stocks-112107.jpg

B) Cushing, OK Stocks

cushing-stocks-112107.jpg

C) A Table Addressing Tightness: Global / Supply Demand. 4Q looks like demand will outstrip supply by an average of 1.6 million barrels of oil per day. 1Q08 assumes OPEC eases production quotas again but the world still falls short by 1.3 mm bopd.

tightness-112207.jpg

D) U.S Production hit new low for 2007 this past week (lowest level since July 2006)

us-production.jpg

E) Gasoline Stocks...we should be building this time of year...

gasoline-stocks-112107.jpg

F) ... But Demand for Gasoline in the U.S. is unusually strong for this time of year

(even with gasoline that costs 38% more ($0.86 per gallon) than year ago levels) 

gasoline-demand-112107.jpg

G) Distillates...not riding so high anymore.

distillate-stocks-112107.jpg

H) and I) Heating Oil Stocks and Production. This should help to boost cracks in the winter months.

heating-oil-112107.jpg

Natural Gas: Remain In Record Territory

gas-table-112207.jpg

gas-graphs-112107.jpg

Odds & Ends

Non-Subscriber Watch: We talk about this stuff every day! Not yet a subscriber? Want to find out how? Click here.

Subscriber Watch: In keeping with the season of Thanks and Giving, I want to give something back to you (if you are subscriber). Unlike your cable company who just gives good deals to new people while raising the rates of their loyal, long time customers I want to give you money back for your loyalty. Here's the deal:

  • One free month for each new subscriber a member brings in for a quarterly sub and
  • One free quarter for getting someone to subscribe for a year.

Not just a free month or quarter but a refund of your already paid month or quarter if you wish. This offer will also apply to quarterly and annual gift subscriptions available for the holiday season. Contact us at zmanalpha@gmail.com for further details. 

 

I'll be in an out from now through the weekend so please have a great one if I don't talk to you before next week!

Best,

Z

 

6 Responses to “A Free Post Turkey Day Slide Show”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    China to import second highest level of crude products for December at 550,000 tons of gaoline and diesel. Also running refineries at record 32.25 mm tons for the 4Q which is up 7%. Both efforts in an effort to stem domestic fuel shortages. They are also delaying planned maintenance and drawing down stocks.

    Broad market showing up 1%

    Crude off $0.30 to $0.70 early (weaker dollar and having missed $100 Wednesday they may be content to wait another week)

    heating oil flat to up with cold (we’re below average and falling here)

    NG up a dime on cold…next week likely to see a small draw on stocks.

  2. 2
    Wyoming Says:

    Is that ~ 4mm bbls, assuming 2000#/ton and 6.5 #/gal?

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    yeah or about 135,000 bopd…or about 10% of US imports

  4. 4
    doc Says:

    A must read. New major oil crisis

    http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/uso

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    thanks doc will do, heading out to catch a football game, will be on mobile as aaatest…nice to leave with a green screen.

    did see the drybulks try to make a move this morning but already reversal showing on DRYS.

  6. 6
    kaman Says:

    Lots of chatter on other boards re: the dry bulk CEO panel discussion on Monday (Cantor Fitz)…just damage control? Pending announcement? Anyone have thoughts on whether the dry bulks as a group will participate in any broad market lift before Dec expiry? This decline is a paradox given the fundies, but I know Z has said the same…crowd just hates DRYS right now.

    cheers-K

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