19
Nov

Monday – Holiday Week Begins

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The Week Ahead

  • Monday & Tuesday - historically pretty active equity market.
  • Wednesday - deadish but you do have both the EIA's oil and gas storage reports
  • Thursday - closed
  • Friday - half day but in reality dead.

Commodity Watch: yada

  • Crude Oil. Up. Today marks the first day of trading in the January 2008 contract (CL/F8) as the front month. Overnight the F8 contract was trading up $0.70 to $94.55 on bullish OPEC speculation.
  • OPEC Watch: At the 3rd OPEC Summit this past weekend (the group meets again on December 5th to discuss production quotas)
  • No production boost discussed. OPEC leaders decided to remain in the oil business which is probably a shock to no one but they did not say they will provide a further boost to production levels (which is probably neutral, maybe slightly bullish event) and I quote:

“We have decided to continue to assure supplies of oil to the market in a way that is sufficient and reliable to meet the needs of the world,” ~ OPEC

  • No switch from the dollar in the final summary press release: There was also no mention made of switching from the dollar to a currency currently perceived as more stable.  However, after the meeting Venezuela and Iran said they will push for a switch to a basket of currencies. In the near term such a switch would cause further deterioration in the dollar likely spurring another leg up in oil prices. Saudi Arabia has come out against a switch away from the dollar however members agreed to meet again before the December 5th meeting to specifically discuss the topic. 
  • Everybody's Going Green. Members pledge $750 Million for research into climate change. Specifically they are looking into Carbon Capture and Storage or CCS. Capturing CO2 from power plants and then sequestering it somewhere (metal tanks, geological formations deep in the ground, or deep in the oceans). Capture is not the problem, its the storage part that gets exceedingly expensive. Now, you can and many operators do use CO2 for enhanced oil recovery and for adsorption in coal bed methane projects. I'd like to find a little green stock play here but as of yet have found nothing of interest.
  • China fuel shortages prompting delayed maintenance, increase in December refinery runs and increased refined product imports. Reports of fuel rationing and violence at filling stations are on the rise. SNP's website this morning said they are planning to delay scheduled maintenance and increase runs. To quote TSO last week, China is a hydrocarbon black hole sucking up everything that even looks like oil. China estimates it doubled its imports of diesel in October 2007 vs 2006 and year to date, imports are up 63.2%! Pretty bullish for refiners in the U.S. like VLO who are sending diesel on the high seas.
  • Natural Gas pipeline explosion in Saudi Arabia (maintenance not the other kind) may give a brief bit of worry to the market but I don't see it having either an actual impact or anything but a fleeting effect on prices. Saudi just increased their oil defense force to 35,000 troops.
  • Natural Gas: trading flat this morning just under $8.
  • For the weekly wrap with comments on near term natural gas prices click here click here.
  • Weather: warmed up last week so we may see a flat or slight building storage report which may have a little downward affect on prices.
    • Past week heating degree days (HDDs): 111 vs 123 in the prior week. This is down from last year's degree day reading of 118 when the storage report was unchanged for the week. Hence my thoughts that we may see a small build this week.
    • This week's projected HDDs: 127. 
  • This week's EIA gas report: Wednesday at 12 Est.

Non-Opec Growth Watch: Russia sees production up 5.2% fro 9.9 mm bopd at present to 10.4 mm bopd by 2010. This current level of production makes Russia at least temporarily the #1 oil producer and #2 exporter after Saudi Arabia however it is much slower than the growth rates seen in the 1990s. 

Stocks We Care About Today Watch:

  • (BP) announced offshore Trinidad Mango Field online; expected to eventually add 0.75 Bcfgpd for conversion into LNG. Good news for BP after a string of bad press and it comes on the heals of another large another large discovery at the Azeri field in the Caspian Sea.  
  • (TSO) board must make a recommendation to shareholders regarding Tracinda's tender offer by Wednesday. This article sounds to me like it's going to happen but it was published last Thursday so obviously the market is not convinced. I'm going to buy a little December call position today.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (TDW) raised to overweight at Lehman, (BRNC) to add at Calyon after they took a piece of a driller in Libya,

 

 

55 Responses to “Monday – Holiday Week Begins”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    RIG gets big contract with APC , ultradeepwater, 3 years, beginning 2010, $570 mm revenue. goes to show the continued long term strength of the market …should be good for DO as well. This comes to $520,000 per day for a 10 year old ship (by then) capable of drilling in 10,000 foot water depths.

    CHK swapping out some converts for stock…not dilutive and should be a non-event.

    oil up 1.05 to 94.90 now. HO and mogas up similiar % moves.

    broad market looking to open down 1/2%

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    8:45 am EST

    Nymex Crude Up $1 As Dollar Weakens

    Dow Jones Newswires
    From Market Talk
    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude trading about $1/bbl higher, boosted by dollar weakness. Jan crude, in first day as front month contract, up $1.08 at $94.92. Dec expired at $95.10 and analysts say support could be being added as speculators who exited Dec buy back in to the front month. (matt.chambers@dowjones.com)

    0759 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude oil futures trading higher after fresh buying and short-covering pushes prices up by more than a dollar in Asian trade. “January prices are higher overnight, with Asian buyers bidding quotes up closer to December’s expiring price,” says Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. “There was also some short-covering by traders who may have overstayed their welcome on the short side.” Unease over Iran’s nuclear program and dollar weakness also offering support to crude prices Monday. Nymex January crude +$1.16 at $95/bbl, ICE January Brent +93c at $92.55/bbl. (NHE)

  3. 3
    freeflow Says:

    Everybody’s off for the holidays Z. I dont know about you but I’m really watching the Dry bulk’s. I’m thinking of getting some January calls on DRYS. I just love that stock.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Goldman out with a report this morning saying the impact on oil prices of the falling dollar has been minimal (sounds like some charts I ran about 2 weeks ago) and says that the real impetus for the run in crude has been falling inventories and service co inflation. Could not tell if they are still saying take profits from the CNBC cover of the report but that does not sound bearish to me.

    Stocks are trading with the broad market, mostly red.

    FF – DRYS. Love the fundamentals, like the company, not too happy with the stock. Need to see it form some sort of bottom before I bite again there. Right now people hate them all, tomorrow could be 180 degree turn. I’ll wait for them to flatten and bounce around here a bit.

  5. 5
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Remember that GS went short, what a month ago?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE:

    APA December $100 Calls for $4.60 average

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Sambone – yeah, sounds like they earned their commish and want trade #3 now.

  8. 8
    Sambone Says:

    Trading the Thanksgiving Market – According to the Stock Traders Almanac

    “For 35 years the combination of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the
    Friday after had a great track record, except for two occasions. Attributing
    this phenomenon to warm “holiday spirit” was a no-brainer. But publishing it
    in the 1987 Almanac was the “kiss of death.” Wednesday, Friday and Monday
    were all crushed, down 6.6% over the three days in 1987. Since 1988,
    Wednesday-Monday lost six of eighteen times with a total Dow point-gain of
    704.77 with only four losses. The best strategy seems to be coming into the
    week long and exiting into strength Friday or Monday.”

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    oil down $0.60…just when the flip flopping bulls came back to the long side of comments oil gets sold off on renewed economic concerns.

    S – thanks for the history update.

  10. 10
    Sambone Says:

    10:07 am EST

    Nymex Crude Steady, Buoyed By Cold Weather

    By Matt Chambers
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures were little changed in quiet trading Monday, supported by colder-than-normal temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and uncertainty about the dollar, whose weakness has helped crude to recent records.

    Light, sweet crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 3 cents at $93.87 a barrel. Prices rose as high as $95.15 in early screen trading. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 2 cents to $91.64 a barrel.

    Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, the world’s biggest heating oil market, are forecast to be lower than normal going into December, according to National Weather Service climate predictions.

    “A lot of the strength seems to be coming from the colder weather, and the OPEC (heads of state) meeting at the weekend” is helping, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “The reasons for today’s early rise aren’t that solid and I think we could see a fall later in the day.”

    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ heads of state met over the weekend, but declined to discuss any future production increases to ease higher prices. While there was no mention in the official communique to the dollar, Venezuela and Iran have pushed OPEC to discuss a possible oil currency basket and sought to include a mention of the weakening dollar in the communique.

    “A concerted bid to change the OPEC (currency) peg could leave Saudi Arabia in direct conflict with extreme OPEC factions,” Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of risk management at MF Global in New York, said in a research note. Crude “prices also seem to be getting a lift overnight by some OPEC members declaring oil prices to still be undervalued due to the weak dollar.”

    Large speculators, such as hedge funds and investment banks, slashed their net bets on a gain in futures prices in Nymex crude to its lowest level since August in the week ended Nov. 13, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

    The speculators cut their net long position in futures to 27,566 from 105,816 a week earlier, according to the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday. The net long position is the difference between the number of short positions, or bets on a fall.

    Analysts were divided on the implications for crude markets. While some saw a distinct change in sentiment from the large speculators that could drive prices lower, others thought it left more room for them to come back on the long side and push prices higher.

    “Combined with the drop in open interest from last week’s December contract expiration, (the cut in net longs) provides the market with ample room for the re-establishment of long positions going forward,” Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures in Stamford, Conn. said in a research note. Open interest, or the number of futures contracts not expired or closed, declined Wednesday and Thursday ahead of Friday’s expiration of December crude.

    Front-month December reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 64 points, or 0.3%, to $2.369 a gallon. December heating oil rose 52 points, or 0.2%, to $2.5923 a gallon.

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  11. 11
    Sambone Says:

    Dow Theroy tells us that if the Dow closes below 12,875.78 soon then look out below for the whole market.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    DJIa down 150

    XOI and service stocks off roughly 1%
    gassy stocks off 0.1% by proxy of the XNG

    oil off only $0.35; gas down a dime.

    XOI needs to hold 1400 in my opinion or we could be in for a pretty steep technical sell off.

    Sam – did you see the transports? ugly

  13. 13
    Sambone Says:

    Dow Theory Part 1

    Dow Theory Close To Confirming Bear Market

    By SPENCER JAKAB
    A Dow Jones Newswires Column

    NEW YORK — To devotees of the oldest and most famous technical indicator, an impending bear market may be confirmed by one more leg down on the Dow Jones Industrials — 264.27 points to be precise.

    Leading proponents of Dow Theory point to the August closing low of 12845.78, just over 2% away from Thursday’s final figure, as the red line that must be crossed fairly soon to confirm that stocks will have a nasty drop ahead of them.

    “We’d be in a primary bear market,” said Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters.

    One of two necessary criteria has been met to set up the conditions Dow Theorists are eyeing. The Dow Jones Transportation Index already broke through its support level of 4672.35, and Friday’s bad news from FedEx Corp. (FDX) pushed that average deeper into the danger zone.

    Russell says it doesn’t matter how much lower the Transports go, as the Industrials are now the key. Conversely, a stubborn failure to break through their low would be a bullish signal. Given some of the nasty days lately — there have been eight drops of at least 267 points this year alone — the bear market signal could come in a single day’s trading.

    Dow Theory is based on the letters of Charles Dow, one of the founders of Dow Jones & Co. (DJ), which publishes this newswire. The first editor of The Wall Street Journal, he never gave his own name to the criteria he used, but disciples did so when they formalized some of the rules after his death in 1902.

    One obvious question that comes to mind is how relevant a drop in transports is today given that the criteria were developed before Orville and Wilbur Wright had flown the first airplane or most people had ever laid eyes on an automobile. Of the 20 components in the Dow Transports today, only four — Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), CSX Inc. (CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) and Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (BNI) — are railroads, which dominated the index at the time. FedEx, which warned Friday, has a larger index weighting than any of them. To Dow theorists though, the mode of transport is irrelevant since the industry is such a barometer of the economy.

    “They show whether goods are moving or not,” explained Russell.

  14. 14
    Sambone Says:

    Dow Theory Part II

    One reason for continuing interest in Dow Theory is that it has been associated with some major market calls, both for bear and bull markets, though there were some miscues that get less emphasis. One of the original Dow theorists, Journal editor William Hamilton, issued a call for a bear market just days before the 1929 stock market crash, though he had also done so nearly four years earlier, causing his followers to miss part of one of the great bull markets of all time.

    Another original Dow theorist, Robert Rhea, famously called a market bottom in July 1932, just two weeks after the bear market low that had seen stocks lose almost 90% of their value. The Dow rallied by nearly 380% from trough to their next peak in 1937, around the time when the signals told Rhea to exit the market.

    Another famous set of calls came from Richard Russell himself, who pinpointed the top of the market in 1966, just two days after the peak and ahead of a nasty decline. Even more famously, he called a market bottom in late 1974 after stocks had dropped by nearly half and pessimism about stocks was at multi-decade highs. In the absence of a clear Dow Theory signal, he also called for a bear market in August 1987, which was when stocks actually peaked before the October 1987 crash, the worst one-day drop in history.

    Skeptics about Dow Theory or technical analysis in general can point to academic studies showing that it barely outperformed a buy-and-hold strategy, though others give it higher marks on a risk-adjusted basis. Despite some bad calls though, the uncanny history of identifying major inflection points should at least give investors pause considering all the other storm clouds on the horizon. According to Russell, if the Dow Industrials breach their summer low then the sell-off could be ugly.

    “Once you get a bear signal, there’s no telling how far it will go,” he said.

    —By Spencer Jakab, Dow Jones Newswires

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    DJIA feeling the pull of 13,000 now.

  16. 16
    Sambone Says:

    TRIN and VIX up

  17. 17
    Wyoming Says:

    Did I wake up in a communist country, cigarettes the only thing green?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    unreal ain’t it?!

    Glad you’re about, light drilling schedule this week?

  19. 19
    Wyoming Says:

    I only go out for certain parts of my designs. Usually when we frac or some other major step. Went out to test wells in North Africa when we were in a jam. Mainly work on completion engineering in the office.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    W – watching your DRQ and the CLB idea like a hawk…both falling and CLB after a bad drubbing last week as well. This market is for the birds at present with DJIA threatening to make a bummer of a holiday.

    Did you see the RIG / APC contract…nice rate on a non brand new drillship. Stock cared for about an hour.

    Also, my HK trade is getting whacked despite the Terryville field acreage add and good news on the 3D there.

  21. 21
    Sambone Says:

    Only thing green on my main screen is DUK and AMZN. rest are red.

  22. 22
    Sambone Says:

    Below 13,000 now

  23. 23
    TTupp Says:

    z why did you buy those apa 110’s last week inda far out of the money eh? than you took the 100’s today? im kinda confused

  24. 24
    apbd Says:

    Z:
    There was an upgrade for SUN on Friday.
    Any thoughts?
    apbd

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    S – all I have green is APA (no doubt because I added there this morning) DVN, who has a piece of that Azeri action with BP in the Caspian which may be getting from an analyst or two this am, and NBL. PQ tried, RIG and DO tried…no joy

    T – thought it would rally and I could get a nice lever off the 110s and out quick. Still think it rallies with oil but I took a much less aggressive 100 for this market. I’m frankly shocked it is still green today.

    SUN – that Berstein analyst has a trader’s heart and he was right the last couple of times. Gotta be the heating need, the colder winter (so far) in the northeast and he’s probably listening to what TSO and VLO have been saying about the growing market for exporting diesel. It’s an obvious play on winter HO but they have low margins and have been rumored to be in the market for buying something/someone which keeps me away.

    Much prefer VLO, just a better operator and better positioned and TSO (alhtough I’m not back in yet) and FTO…but to tell you the truth I’m pulling in my horns for a bit. Smaller than normal and less frequent trades…lot of market risk at present.

  26. 26
    Brian08 Says:

    Chuck Prince, the “F up” gift that keeps on giving…What a turd…

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    rod and lash not enough for CP

  28. 28
    Sambone Says:

    I can hardly wait til Lloyd C. Blankfein of GS finally fesses up that they really do have toxic paper that is worthless on their books. We’ll know next earning cycle when the new regs take affect.

  29. 29
    Sambone Says:

    Lunch is ending, so I’m expecting this market to drop some more.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    trading sub 13k…nice if it could hold it…12,500 soon enough if it can’t.

    T – you watching BTU here? getting close to 50

  31. 31
    Sambone Says:

    Thar she Goes!

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Sam – how would you hedge a slide here?

  33. 33
    Wyoming Says:

    Z,
    CLB, DRQ and RIG may get spanked today/this week but they will be the future trend. We are demand driven at this time. The question is are we just consolidating? Market looks 6 months ahead. Is this the pricing for a warm winter? Oil may be @ a high but the associated stocks are a value.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    W – agreed. Long term quite strong and I’d throw FTI and OII into the mix as well.

    Oil back up $0.80…wonder if Flynn has had a chance to flip (or is it flop) yet, lol.

  35. 35
    Sambone Says:

    I am currently long GLD, FXF, SJH and SKF. If this market closes below 12,845 and stays, then I’ll go 1/2 my portfolio on the ETF’s that are 2 times inverse.

  36. 36
    Wyoming Says:

    S,
    I played the QID lsat week, real quick, small gain. Wanted to try it out and see how it reacted. Good choice.

    Z,
    Agree, rising tide. Don’t mean to dis FTI, it would be more of a tech look for me, the fundies are too tied to North AM.

    One other spin on the CLB / exploration play boom would be a niche seismic company. Dawson in North Am, played IO in the past. Of course SLB with Western Geco product line (BHI sold there part couple years ago), need to investigate more about PGSVY (no options that I see).

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Sam – do the ultrashares have an energy etf? Some of those have options but the premiums are pretty fat.

    W – hear ya FTI, think it just gets lumped in with the deep play. Ever look at BTJ in seismic?

    Gotta parent/teacher conf, see ya in a bit.

  38. 38
    Brian08 Says:

    Z, I believe DUG is the short on oil and natty gas combined…

  39. 39
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Do you want short or long ETF’s on energy? I have a huge list.

  40. 40
    Sambone Says:

    Here is a list for everybody. I’ll give you the symbols and then go here to look them up.
    http://www.etfconnect.com/
    BSR, DIG, DUG, FCG, FXN, IEO, IEZ, IGE, IYE, NLR, OIH, PBW, PRFE, PUW, PXE, PXI, PXJ, QCLN, RYE, VDE, XES, XLE, XOP

  41. 41
    aaatest Says:

    Do u have components of the etfs

  42. 42
    Sambone Says:

    Here is the list for shorting the market.
    Value, Large cap = DOG, DXD, SJF
    Value, Mid cap and small cap = SJL, SJH,
    Blend, Large, Mid, and small = SSO, SDS, MYY, MVV, MZZ, RWM, SBB, SDD, TWN
    Growth, Large, Mid, Small = PSQ, QID, SFK, SDK, SKK
    Metals = SMN, Consumer cyclical = UCC, Consumer Non-Cyclical = SZK, Energy = DUG, Financial = SKF, Real Estate = SRS, Health Care = RXD, Utilities = SDP.

  43. 43
    Sambone Says:

    A – Go here and it gives a breakdown. Just put the smybol in on the top right. If that’s not enough, go to the providers web site.
    http://www.etfconnect.com/

  44. 44
    Sambone Says:

    By the way, the new thing in the market is Exchange traded notes (ETN’s). I own RJI.
    http://www.elementsetn.com/

  45. 45
    doc Says:

    Almost all my longs are is the red in all sectors. Don’t have enough shorts.

    This could be the start of a “REST OF A WORLD “”MAJOR””EXIT FROM US MKTS. They are getting killed by Falling dollar.

    PHIL

  46. 46
    Sambone Says:

    Thar she goes again! Might get ugly into the close.

  47. 47
    Sambone Says:

    I’m likin deem banks gettin spanked. It’s about time!

  48. 48
    Sambone Says:

    Matt may be repeating some from this morning.

    3:25 pm EST

    Nymex Crude Buoyed By Cold, Dollar Concern, OPEC

    By MATT CHAMBERS
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures finished higher in quiet trading Monday, supported by colder-than-normal temperatures in the U.S. Northeast and OPEC-inspired uncertainty about the dollar, whose weakness has helped crude to recent records.

    Crude’s ability to stay at a near-record high, despite failing to rise to $100 last week as the December contract expired, has many analysts predicting prices are still able to reach triple figures this year, especially if colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere can drive demand.

    Light, sweet crude for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 80 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $94.64 a barrel. Prices rose as high as $95.15 in early screen trading. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 68 cents to $92.30 a barrel. Brent settlement prices weren’t yet available.

    The futures spent most of the trading session vacillating between positive and negative before rising nearly $1 a barrel in the last half-hour before settlement.

    Temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, the world’s biggest heating oil market, are forecast to be lower than normal going into December, according to both the six-to-10 day and 8-to-14 day forecasts on the National Weather Service’s web site. Temperatures in New York were below average Monday.

    Winter heating fuel and power demand in the U.S., Europe and Asia is usually a big driver of crude oil demand in the fourth quarter. While most forecasters are calling for a warmer-than-normal winter, continued cold weather in the lead-up will support prices.

    Oil traders are also keeping a close eye on the dollar, and calls from some Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries leaders to price oil in other currencies led to a reluctance to sell futures, despite currency traders leaving the dollar steady. Nymex crude’s rise to a record intraday high of $98.62 a barrel on Nov. 7 has been in part because of dollar weakness, which makes the commodity cheaper in other countries.

    “A lot of the strength seems to be coming from the colder weather, and the OPEC (heads of state) meeting at the weekend” is also helping, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

    Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ heads of state met over the weekend, refusing to discuss any future production increases to ease higher prices.

    Also, while there was no mention in the official communique to the dollar, Venezuela and Iran have pushed OPEC to discuss pricing oil in a basket of currencies, rather than just in the dollar, and sought to include a mention of the weakening dollar in the communique.

    “A concerted bid to change the OPEC (currency) peg could leave Saudi Arabia in direct conflict with extreme OPEC factions,” Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president of risk management at MF Global in New York, said in a research note.

    While oil traders were focused closely on the OPEC comments, currency markets didn’t seem too worried.

    “Saudi Arabia is the key player here, not Venezuela, Iran,” said Marc Chandler, global head of foreign exchange at Brown Brothers Harriman. “The Saudis have been very clear. They have no plans to change foreign exchange policies.”

    Traders will look to Wednesday’s weekly Department of Energy report on U.S. inventories to gain more information on which way prices are likely to head. Crude oil inventories are expected to have risen by 800,000 barrels in the data, which is for last week, according to the mean forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 10 analysts.

    Distillate stockpiles, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are seen falling by 400,000 barrels and gasoline inventories are seen growing by 700,000 barrels. Refinery use is expected to grow by 0.4 percentage point to 88.1% of capacity.

    Large speculators, such as hedge funds and investment banks, slashed their net bets on a gain in futures prices in Nymex crude to the lowest level since August in the week ended Nov. 13, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

    The speculators cut their net long position in futures to 27,566 from 105,816 a week earlier, according to the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders report, released Friday. The net long position is the difference between the number of short positions, or bets on a fall.

    Analysts were divided on the implications for crude markets. While some saw a distinct change in sentiment from the large speculators that could drive prices lower, others thought it left more room for them to come back on the long side and push prices higher.

    “Combined with the drop in open interest from last week’s December contract expiration, (the cut in net longs) provides the market with ample room for the re-establishment of long positions going forward,” Addison Armstrong, an analyst at TFS Energy Futures in Stamford, Conn. said in a research note. Open interest, or the number of futures contracts not expired or closed, declined Wednesday and Thursday ahead of Friday’s expiration of December crude.

    Front-month December reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 62 points, or 0.3%, to $2.3816 a gallon. December heating oil rose 1.71 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.6042 a gallon.

    (Dan Molinski contributed to this story.)

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  49. 49
    freeflow Says:

    Helloooooo?

  50. 50
    Popeye Says:

    Houston channel closed again do to fog.

  51. 51
    Popeye Says:

    due – whatever

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sam, can I see the individual stocks in DUG? There is a world of difference between say XOI and XNG and XLE. I was logged in on my mobile as aaatest, other wise that’s tech support’s log in.

    Doc – have you had much luck timing the market? I do not do that. What I can tell in energy anyway is that things with a 12+ forward PE get hit more on 200 point down DJIA days that cheap stuff. That small gets hit worse than big and that what has gone up the most, regardless of multiple will get kicked in the crotch harder than the flatter on the year stuff.

    FF – yes?

    Popeye – thanky! Guess that chart of oil inventories will be showing just another bump in the road down again!

  53. 53
    Wyoming Says:

    Just got back, good thing, this one hit hard and left a mark, do own the cigarettes though. Will have to see how the JV squad does tomorrow.

  54. 54
    Wyoming Says:

    Security Description Shares/Contracts
    Proshares Ultra Oil & Gas
    74347R719
    DJUSEN SWAPS 105,205.66
    ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP 15,713.00
    APACHE CORP COM STK 11,013.00
    ATWOOD OCEANICS INC COM 896
    BAKER HUGHES INC COM STK 10,765.00
    BERRY PETROLEUM CORP 1,186.00
    BJ SERVICES COM STK 9,840.00
    BRISTOW GROUP INC COM STK 750
    CABOT OIL & GAS CO 3,264.00
    CAMERON INTL CORP COM 3,650.00
    CHENIERE ENERGY INC COM 1,497.00
    CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP 15,015.00
    CHEVRON CORP COM STK 71,550.00
    CIMAREX ENERGY CO COM STK 2,775.00
    COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC 1,489.00
    CONOCOPHILLIPS COM STK 51,078.00
    CROSSTEX ENERGY LP COM 1,542.00
    DELTA PETROLEUM CORP COM 2,205.00
    DENBURY RESOURCES INC COM 4,055.00
    DEVON ENERGY CORP(NEW) 14,070.00
    DIAMOND OFFSHORE DRILLING 2,199.00
    DRESSER RAND GROUP COM 2,868.00
    DYNEGY INC(NEW) CLS’A’COM 13,466.00
    EL PASO CORP COM STK USD3 23,676.00
    ENCORE ACQUISITION CO COM 1,707.00
    ENSCO INTERNATIONAL INC 4,947.00
    EOG RESOURCES INC COM STK 8,196.00
    EXCO RESOURCES INC COM 2,828.00
    EXTERRAN HOLDINGS COM STK 2,213.00
    EXXON MOBIL CORP COM NPV 186,160.00
    FMC TECHNOLOGIES INC COM 4,358.00
    FOREST OIL CORP COM STK 2,615.00
    FRONTIER OIL CORP COM STK 3,596.00
    GLOBAL INDUSTIRES COM STK 2,936.00
    GRANT PRIDECO INC COM STK 4,299.00
    GREY WOLF INC COM STK 6,205.00
    HALLIBURTON CO COM STK 29,878.00
    HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS 2,799.00
    HELMERICH & PAYNE INC COM 3,208.00
    HESS CORPORATION COM USD1 9,573.00
    HOLLY CORP COM STK 1,542.00
    ION GEOPHYSICAL 2,362.00
    MARATHON OIL CORP COM STK 24,264.00
    MARINER ENERGY INC COM 2,694.00
    MURPHY OIL CORP COM USD1 5,938.00
    NATIONAL OILWELL VARCO 11,912.00
    NEWFIELD EXPLORATION CO 4,330.00
    NEWPARK RESOURCES INC COM 2,999.00
    NOBLE ENERGY INC COM 5,728.00
    OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP 27,986.00
    OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL 1,830.00
    OGE ENERGY CORP COM STK 3,073.00
    OIL STATES INTERNATIONAL 1,657.00
    PARKER DRILLING CO COM 3,751.00
    PATTERSON UTI ENERGY INC 5,260.00
    PENN VIRGINIA CORP COM 1,261.00
    PETROHAWK ENERGY CORP COM 5,693.00
    PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES 4,116.00
    PLAINS EXPLORATION & 4,128.60
    PRIDE INTL INC NEW COM 5,562.00
    QUICKSILVER RESOURCES INC 1,839.00
    RANGE RESOURCES CORP COM 4,984.00
    ROWAN COS INC COM 3,710.00
    SEACOR HLDGS INC COM STK 791
    SMITH INTERNATIONAL INC 6,712.00
    SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY CO 5,677.00
    ST MARY LAND & 2,106.00
    STONE ENERGY CORP COM STK 878
    SUNOCO INC COM STK USD1 4,073.00
    SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES 2,707.00
    SWIFT ENERGY CO COM STK 1,004.00
    TESORO CORP COM STK 4,585.00
    TETRA TECHNOLOGIES COM 2,490.00
    TIDEWATER INC COM STK 1,871.00
    UNIT CORP COM STK USD0.20 1,552.00
    VALERO ENERGY CORP(NEW) 18,428.00
    W-H ENERGY SERVICES INC 1,019.00
    WHITING PETROLEUM CORP 1,409.00
    XTO ENERGY INC COM STK 12,871.00
    CORE LABORATORIES NV 803
    GLOBALSANTAFE CORP COM 7,638.00
    NABORS INDUSTRIES COM STK 9,445.00
    NOBLE CORPORATION 9,013.00
    SCHLUMBERGER COM USD0.01 40,012.00
    TRANSOCEAN INCORP. COM 9,661.00
    ULTRA PETROLEUM CORP COM 5,101.00
    WEATHERFORD INTL B COM 11,402.00
    Net Other Assets / Cash 5,183,786.99

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Thanks Wyo

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