26
Oct

Friday – No, not the weekend…we’re having too much fun

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We sold all or part of three positions yesterday for 100% to over 300% gains with holding periods of 20 days or less. Lots more where that came from! As always, I plan to sell into strength and buy into weakness.


Backup Site Watch: We've had some technical difficulties over the last two days. Hopefully they are fixed this morning but you never can be sure. I've built a back up site in the event you can't get in over here. Please bookmark it but do not disseminate the address. It is not a searchable address so the only way to find out about it is here and via email. Thanks. The address is:

http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com

Commodity Watch

  • Crude Oil Closed Up $3.36 to $90.46!!! yesterday as new U.S. sanctions against Iran raised concerns that Tehran would use oil as a weapon. Overnight oil was trading actively to nearly $92 due to continued Iran fears plus:
  • Alberta Bumps Up Royalties; Abandons Oil Sand Tax But Talks Of "Renegotiating Deals". Last night Alberta chose to join the ranks of socialists the world over in raising royalties on oil and gas companies. The new rates, which will hike royalties from current highs of 35 per cent to a maximum 50 per cent for conventional oil and natural gas, won't take effect until 2009. There should be a long list of Capital Budget redirection press releases as companies find alternative provinces in which to spend their future dollars. Congratulations to Albertan Premier Ed Stelmach for providing the single biggest boost to Saskatchewan's job market in history. There is a silver lining here: I still have puts on (SU).

Renegotiating Deals With The Oil Sand Players But Not Adding a New Tax. Sounds like Chavez to me. From Canada.com ~ Rather than charging a severance tax on oilsands bitumen, Stelmach says he will negotiate with oilsands giants Syncrude and Suncor to change long-term deals and accept a price-sensitive royalty formula. Under the new oilsands regime and at current oil prices, the one-per-cent holiday oilsands companies currently enjoy until their projects are paid out will rise to just over four per cent and could hit nine per cent if oil reaches $120 per barrel.

As to the very near term, I think traders can  rally crude another buck or two and then let it fall back (profit taking) to the new round number support of $90. If that holds then we yo-yo to $95. At this point people have shifted focus from Turkey, which conveniently got us to the high $80s, which is now "sooo last week" , and now they're focused on Iran, which could scuttle one tanker in the Straits of Hormuz and knock oil out of the ballpark ($100). As always, the pendulum is swinging too far.

Opec Watch: Algerian and Venezuela reiterated earlier statements by other members that their is no need to raise OPEC supply. The OPEC secretary general said the market is already well supplied. 

Ignored Person of the Week Watch: Tesoro's Economist for daring to say oil may be up to 50% overvalued right now! Before the open yesterday morning Tesoro's Chief Economist said as much and no one cared all day long. If you look at the inventories of just plain old crude its obvious we have a lot now. But...we simply are not importing as much this 4Q as last 4Q and with demand expected to be up I think the market can easily say that it's looking forward to a point when inventories will not be so high. Also, nobody is going to trust a guy who 1) works for a company and says that said company's chief raw component cost should be a third lower than they are at present and 2) he's an economist: I mean, have ya seen how bad these guys are off on the jobs numbers?! Anyway, he makes a good point as historically the fear premium is generally $10 to $15 per barrel...not $30.

Armenian Genocide Bill Vote Delayed. Support waned when they realized it might cause another war.  

  • Natural Gas: Closed up $0.22 to $7.19 despite a  higher than expected gas storage injection (68 vs 54 Bcf expected). This morning gas is trading off 0$.07. Gas prices have a way of taking waypoints from these shifts from surplus to deficit and back again and if we move back into surplus next week, I'd expect gas prices to soften.

gas-graph-102507aaa.jpg

 

Friend of the Blog Watch: A friend of mine pointed out that I may have given short shrift to the SLB / Justice Department issue. At the time as I read the story the investigation pertained to some questionable practices on the part of one of SLB's vendors and not SLB itself. It was pointed out to me that you are required to vet your vendors and that it can be painful for both parties...the offender and the guy who hired them. I stand corrected.  Trading in SLB would seem to confirm this at it fell 2.75% yesterday and this may continue to cast a cloud over the company for a little while. As you all know, I'd buy (HAL) in a heartbeat over (SLB) simply based on valuation.  

Holdings Watch: yesterday as promised I started taking profits. Today is likely to see more of the same.

  • (TSO) - Sold all of the Nov $50 calls for $7.80; up 333% since entry on Oct 3. Still hold the $47.50 Nov Calls.
  • (VLO)  - Out half Nov $67.50 calls for $5.50. Up 108% in 2 days. Group probably continues to rally.
  • (BTU) - Half out Nov $50 calls for average $5.35; up 138% since entry on 9/28.

 

Stocks We Care About Today Watch:

  • (SU) As mentioned above Alberta has decided to go ahead and accept many of the tax hike proposals put forth by a government panel last month. The meat of the matter is that it could have been worse but it's not good news for Albertan operators. SU's reaction:

"Suncor recognizes that the oil sands resource we develop is owned by the people of Alberta, and Albertans have the right to benefit economically through royalties," said Rick George, president and chief executive officer. "However, the royalty regime changes proposed by the Alberta government are substantial and could have a significant impact on industry economics. We will need time to study the changes and their potential impact on our business."

This will also have a negative impact on big Albertan oil and gas producers ECA, CNQ, PCZ, TLM , NXY etc...I'll be taking a look at these after the open for a potential quick trade.  

  • (NFX) They expect 2.5+ Tcfe for year end 2007 reserves. Reserve life will increase to 13 years. That’s up from 9.3 years as of year end 2006. Bottom Line: I think people wanted another guidance boost. The fact that no company on the chart from Wednesday night's post (aside from much smaller HK) has a 13 year reserve life and trades at 6x cash flow seems to be lost on the investors for the moment.

Earnings Watch:

(BHI) Reports "In-Line" 3Q07 Results

  • reported $1.22 vs exp of $1.22 and revenue of $2.67 B vs exp of $2.64 B.
  • sees continued strong international demand
  • N. American environment remains uncertain; see any natural gas price induced weakness in drilling activity as short-lived
  • says prices in N. American remain challenging to increase, focus on cost control
  • no position here but I'll listen to the CC for a bit more color. From a cursory level this looked like a decent quarter however, the recent run may have needed a better than expected quarter to maintain momentum.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: Calyon boosts (NFX) price target from $54 to $58, (DO) cut to neutral at Calyon, (HES) upped to buy at B of A.

 

 

   

144 Responses to “Friday – No, not the weekend…we’re having too much fun”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    TDW reports in line

    WNR upped to HOLD at B of A

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Site problems appear to linger…

    post has been duplicated on the backupsite

    http://zmanbackup.wordpress.com/

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    gunman seize 6 offshore Nigeria

  4. 4
    aitrader Says:

    Looks like Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) missed earnings today “Cabot Oil & Gas 3rd Quarter Net Drops 88% On Year-Ago Gain” http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/cabot-oil–gas-3rd/story.aspx?guid=%7B684BA521%2DB221%2D4D6F%2D864D%2DEDA59ADF50A6%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

    Doubled up on my SUxs yesterday when they were at 106. Thx Zman.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Aitrade: that’s not a miss, that’s a beat:

    “Excluding those items, earnings fell to $38.4 million, or 40 cents a share, from $45.3 million, or 47 cents a share, a year earlier. The Houston-based energy company’s revenue fell to $170.8 million from $184.7 million in the year-ago period. On average, analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected per-share earnings of 38 cents excluding items on revenue of $163 million.”

    The impairment is a non cash charge which should be backed out results before comparing to Consensus. On that basis they beat on both top and bottom lines. I don’t follow these guys actively any more but they are a pretty smart shop.

    Nice trade on the SU…the news was mixed for them and it’s not yet resolved as the words “renegotiate deals” can mean a wide array of outcomes.

  6. 6
    O.W. Says:

    looks like another stellar open to us… Oil up sharply.. Dollar down sharply… Iraq threatens to cut off oil supply to Turkey

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Off topic:

    I’m a big fan of google. However, they have made some recent adjustments to their “pay per click” advertising in the name of quality control that are already backfiring on them. There is a lot of confusion surrounding new quality score mechanism which essential forces bids to compete not with other bidders as much, as it has in the past, but with google.com. My site, I’m told, does not deal enough with topics like oil, natural gas, OPEC, stocks, options etc to be considered worthy of allowing normal bidding on search terms any longer.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Anyone having trouble getting into the site

  9. 9
    freeflow Says:

    good for me

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    NEWS FLASH

    TSO bid up $8…Tracinda offers $64 share for 16% of TSO

    VLO bid up $4

    ALJ, FTO and WNR will rally hard!

  11. 11
    jazzkool Says:

    Z, what should we do with this news. Any beneficiaries that you have not mentioned in post 10.

    Jazz

  12. 12
    TTupp Says:

    all right which ones of you bastards has tso calls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    dam it dam it, was gona pair my vlo trade with them!!!! (my gf is telling me to stop yelling at my imaginary internet friends

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Jazz – HOC should have been listed

    I think WNR has the most to rally, ALJ and FTO a little better quality but that won’t matter here.

  14. 14
    TTupp Says:

    Z- got some vlos, you think this rally will fall off after the am pop?

  15. 15
    O.W. Says:

    rest of VLO up a ridiculous 232 % .. wow.. trade of the month goes for you TSO callers.. amazing!

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    T – I still hold the 47.50s (which just went from a nice gain to a really nice gain ) but sold my 50s yesterday.

    Like the FTO Nov $50 for $1
    WNR NOV $40s but no price available yet

    That offer puts TSO at 11 2008 numbers,

    That makes VLO and ALJ and extreme bargain.

  17. 17
    O.W. Says:

    sell into initial excitement?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    just on the TSO but so far the bid is not working so I have not. Everything else could run up again monday. I hold tight. Tracinda coming into the energy space will be bigger and bigger news as the day rolls on .

    OII, RIG – wow

  19. 19
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Good call on the VLO and TSO.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    BTU double wow

    unreal but this news swamped a perfectly good SU short. Will hold for common sense to prevail there.

    ZTRADE: NOV $45 FTO CALLS for average $3

  21. 21
    O.W. Says:

    why is HK so unaffected by all of this?

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: NOV $40 WNR CALLS for $2.25

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    OW no idea…the little ones often lag on days like this for a time as everyone throws cash at the household names.

  24. 24
    Brian08 Says:

    SU finally red

    CHK, wowie…FINALLY!!! VINDICATION!!! Can we email Aubrey and tell him NOT to offer a convert here and just kill the MO’ of this stock??

  25. 25
    TTupp Says:

    you got to love the tso effect on vlo, maybe on the little guys, but them its an easy sell into weakness, sold my $67 1/2’s , $230 -> $830, vurry noice– i like

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    SU falling back a bit as the buyers say, oh yeah, that royalty thing.

    BTU holy cow! Up 300%…Hey ram, who’s the coal man now, lol.

  27. 27
    TTupp Says:

    looking for an E&P DT mr Z (hey that rhymed), bored with this easy money

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Sorry T, you know I’m no good on the DTs

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    T: check out the behavior on SU today. That should go lower.

  30. 30
    aitrader Says:

    BHI down in the dumps even though they seemed to make their #’s this morning. Any ideas why Z?

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    BHI – see bottom of post. Needed a beat to maintain momentum, not a meet.

  32. 32
    TTupp Says:

    re BTU, its breaking out of a 1.5 year trading range- good call.

    just a thought to the board, slb and oii trade the same was with the same underlying moves, but slb’s IV is way less and spreads are much better… happy hunting…

  33. 33
    aitrader Says:

    T – what does IV mean?

  34. 34
    TTupp Says:

    drys needs a breakout, it would be fun to 150-160… premiums have come in a bit too

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    implied volatility…the higher the iv in the more premium your are going to pay.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implied_volatility

    Thanks T – big long term picture there, I’m about done with it and will sell and reload soon. Check out the 24 month breakout CHK is experiencing…nice base, then boom.

  36. 36
    Brian08 Says:

    Did I see correctly that SU broke $100 to the downside in after hours yesterday? Granted the volume is thin and it coulda been one trade…But that whole royalty thing just can’t be good…

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Brian – you are correct and it was a lot of trades. It was trading around 101 this morning but Tracinda coming into the space shot everything up. They are starting to sort it out now as the stock is off again. See post for Alberta royalty announcement.

    note current muted reaction in eca, cnq, pcz, tlm, nxy: all big Alberta producers although the impact varies from company to company…these should have all been off today, especially the first 3.

  38. 38
    TTupp Says:

    Z- your 50’s at +700% would have looked good on the free post 😉

  39. 39
    Brian08 Says:

    Thanks Z…Saw it in the journal this morning…Almost started to do a dance, then I saw all the green from all the options that you pointed out…Then I started dancing…

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    don’t worry, the 47.50s up 500%+ will, lol.

  41. 41
    rseidman Says:

    Z: This site is still not reliable

  42. 42
    ram Says:

    Hopefully the dance will continue with the FTO and WNR trades.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    B – hopefully it was a manly jig and not an Elaine Beniz style dance.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    B – hopefully it was a manly jig and not an Elaine Beniz style dance.

    Thanks rs…they sent me a note with no apology telling me it was working fine as of 4 pm cst yesterday. my butt.

  45. 45
    TTupp Says:

    pcz , i think z, is super diversified. north sea, offshore nfd ect. i was mulling a trade in “her” lately. BMO just upgraded it, and raised targets on it. its a huge company, but has a piss poor options market… but the Novembers ar DIRT cheap– check it out zzzz

  46. 46
    Brian08 Says:

    Z, VERY unfortunately missed out on TSO…I make it a point not to chase anything…By time I saw what you had posted I think it was a good ways away from where you posted you thought it would be a good value…

    It wasn’t the Elaine dance, but it probably looked something close! 🙂

  47. 47
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Send them back a note advising them your subscribers are having difficulty refreshing. I have to log off and the log back on in order to update. Very slow process.

  48. 48
    scoop006 Says:

    Figures now working

  49. 49
    TTupp Says:

    stupid specialist taking all the fun out of the market for traders this AM!

    how exactly does he do this? ive never understood the whole specialist process, and the method to his madness…

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    T – I’m going to hold off and see if oil will run. I agree they are highly diversified as are all those companies on the list…I have not broken out the regional production.

    Scoop – message sent

  51. 51
    TTupp Says:

    MRO break-out? they are a similar co to cop eh? why is cop being treated like a red headed step chid today? it was up….. WTF… actually the other two of the big three are having a similar treatment– maybe its the post open selloff were having?

    that goes back to my specialist comment, why open things ihgher if theyre just going to peeter off?

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    cop up $0.63

    specialist just trys to balance buys and sells, very difficult on days like this with lots of buyers and no sellers, so he opens the spreads to keep from getting raped.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    If you haven’t done so, take a look at the WNR daily chart. I couldn’t stand this thing at 19x fwd earnings last summer or $64. Now under $40 that multiple is closer to 12x. Chart could run fast.

  54. 54
    scoop006 Says:

    Z We traded SWN in Sept. It seems it ran up overnight

  55. 55
    TTupp Says:

    was that for me z?

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    no just in general

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Scoop – SWN – yeah, I really missed the trade there this go around, same KWK…Not chasing as they are pretty richly valued and around $7 some of the Fayetteville Shale acreage gets pretty marginal. Saw CHK holding back there the other day.

  58. 58
    aitrader Says:

    DRYS pendulum swinging back to 122.

  59. 59
    TTupp Says:

    my boyfriends over at bmo upped WRN to a hold from underperform last week or so too. looks like these talk could reverse the long downtrend from $65. options market for it sux tho, once it reverses that could change i guess.

    sites running like crap for me too. are you sure you didnt hire mexicans from a home depot paring lot to run a server in your garage that you bought from a salvage yard in post-was ukraine?

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    yeah, you saw B of A did same to WNR this morning.

  61. 61
    scoop006 Says:

    Z If XOM disappoints any effect on COP?

  62. 62
    scoop006 Says:

    WHAT HAPPENED TO RIG?

  63. 63
    aitrader Says:

    RIG looks like it’s establishing a support floor at 116 and bouncing off of resistance at 118 IMHO.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    RIG: It’s getting sucked down with the DO downgrade which makes no sense at all given the spread between their relative valuations. I was just about to comment on the poor suckers who bought DO for the special dividend who are not getting hosed.

    XOM – yes it would. Again valuations are so different it would not last unless XOM really messed up. Note that they have not warned unlike most of the majors/refiners.

  65. 65
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Any thoughts on NFX? No trades in the JAN. Seems odd.

  66. 66
    TTupp Says:

    z- whats your / the streets thoughts on MRO?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    NFX – i’m just waiting/watching/comfortable holding for now, don’t want to add on strength; maybe next week.

    MRO – nothing intelligent to say there. Don’t know on Street either…not a name I track closely. Always seems pricey to me.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Not a lot to report except it the obvious which is that we are consolidating at the highs which implies further upside. Also of note is that volumes are very low which argues against a top in place – ie we probably need to see a blow off top on high volume.

    As an aside Dick Cheney has said they will only use the SPR in the event of disruption – surely that’s what everyone needs to hear and is pretty obvious.

    CNBC have been down on the floor of the Nymex and even the traders are saying this is way too high!

    from Nicky

  69. 69
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – I just looked at the open trades and see that you are in NFX calls. Sorry.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Scoop – did you see my email?

  71. 71
    gaamblor Says:

    With Crude/NatGas now at ~13 don’t companies have to rethink using 6 for boe?

    Won’t that magically decrease production and total reserves for gassy companies?

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    G – that’s funny

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Need some assistance…is there anyone here who sometimes cannot get in at all over the last 2 days?

  74. 74
    scoop006 Says:

    system working now

  75. 75
    O.W. Says:

    Z – it sometimes takes 5-10 minutes for the refresh to load up the site again. that’s the max for me. works better than yesterday w/ up to 30m., but still some glitches here and there..

  76. 76
    cattleman Says:

    Have been locked out a couple of times. Am away from the computer for extended times though.

  77. 77
    irished Says:

    something wrong!! seems to be working now.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    They told me to tell everyone to reboot their PCs. I did that and it did not work for me.

    If anyone feels up to it I need a trace route and ping run from your blocked or semi blocked PC back to my host. It works for some and not others. Depends on what part of the country/world you are in.

    Here are the instructions:

    Get to a DOS prompt c:\
    type: tracert http://www.gkg.net
    wait about 30 seconds and then copy and paste the results into an email and send to me at zmanalpha@gmail.com.

    also would help to get a ping
    for that you type: ping http://www.gkg.net

    It would be a big help and especially so if run during a period when the site will not refresh or you cannot get in.

  79. 79
    aaatest Says:

    Z,

    time tick test

  80. 80
    drdavis124 Says:

    SU Not a good stock for this board. I own it long term, but with concern. The GVT. won’t give them problems. My worry is that they are a “mining company” Capital cost to get open is more than a copper miner. At least 10x more than punching a Hole in the Ground or ocean.

    Greatest 2 days in a year. I am overweight in YZC & ACI (sold some yestgerday)

    CHK “new hi” very very overweight in 8,9, & 10 leaps.

    Phil

  81. 81
    aaatest Says:

    Z

    second time tick test

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Dr D.

    How can you say SU is not a good stock for this board?

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Ok,

    site just super fast for me. Everyone refresh and confirm it just got a lot faster.

  84. 84
    aaatest Says:

    Z time tick test. That last was very slow.

  85. 85
    irished Says:

    5×5 in NY

  86. 86
    cattleman Says:

    Blazing on the plains

  87. 87
    j Says:

    Seems to be some decent action in HAL Nov 45 calls. Somebody likes them.

  88. 88
    O.W. Says:

    Z, why do you think the gas prices don’t keep up with oil? and if they don’t do so soon is this rally sustainable?

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    Newfield rallying nicely.

    HK – thar she blows!

    j – that’s pretty gutsy…wow 52K contracts! people liked the $42.50s back before SLB got slammed …made good money if they were quick, then got shattered. Highest I’d go front month is right in front of your nose, the $40s which I hold, and the $42.50s for a buck.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    OW: are you talking the natural kind or the gasoline kind?

  91. 91
    O.W. Says:

    I’m talking about the refining companies.. they’re rallying now due to crude but not actually profiting more.. or am I getting this wrong?

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    ZTRADE: added second batch of WNR $40 Nov Calls for $1.40.

  93. 93
    dooch Says:

    whats going on with DRYS? Valuations are cheap both fwd and trailing

  94. 94
    O.W. Says:

    actually would seem like losing profit as this gap between the crude and refined product widens towards the crude side.. Is it really more wide now then the historical average?

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    OW – you are not wrong but the refiners are up on the Tracinda deal more than they are on oil.

    Right now front month crude is 0.8% as is ULJ (unleaded mogas) while heating oil (HO is up about 0.4%. That would yield a slightly reduced crack spread. But in generally, the refiners will trade with oil and expectations that products, which there are less of in storage as a % of historical norms will soon play catch up.

  96. 96
    drdavis124 Says:

    Z #82 SU The risk is incresing CAP-X cost announcements. I could be wrong.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Dr D – I agree that’s part of the risk and so would be a potential collapse in oil prices and also a renegotiation of deals which reduces IRR on the whole ball of wax. But again, I ask why you say it’s not a good stock for this site? It’s energy and we love energy…

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    Bet you oil gets another rally into the close. I may take the OII off the table.

  99. 99
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Can you comment on the volume in COP Nov. calls $35-$60

  100. 100
    Brian08 Says:

    Z: Re – website…Today the refresh function isn’t working, I have to go back to http://www.zmansenergybrain.com and click on the comments link at the end of the day’s write up to get back in here…Not a big deal at all, just thought you might like to know if you needed help in diagnosing what was going on…And I didn’t have any trouble yesterday getting on and using the refresh function…

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Thanks B – its just one of life’s big frustrations…you work hard, you pay some dolt to keep the lights on and he takes a 3 days snooze on you…

    COP still in recovery mode.

    still think they run oil into the crude.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    testing, testing, is this thing on? nice day to watch paint dry. At least it’s a nice shade of green

    anybody interested in a free membership? we have an affiliate program which means you get paid for hooking your friends, family and co-workers on the site. Contact me at zmanalpha@gmail.com for details if you are interested.

  103. 103
    aitrader Says:

    Luvin the NBR action. Don’t understand RIG and SU – it’s like their joined at the hip.

  104. 104
    aitrader Says:

    Luvin’ the NBR action. Don’t understand RIG and SU – it’s like they’re joined at the hip with a $10 spread.

  105. 105
    TTupp Says:

    yea z can you figure out whast going on in the ITM calls for cop, re#99? thanks

  106. 106
    irished Says:

    1×1 spoke too soon from NY. Had to make 10 inputs or so to get here. Just for info. Know it is not your fault.
    Absolutely great picks dude. Keep up the good work
    Thanks.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    RE COP CALLS:

    That to me looks like deep conviction in a move higher. You certainly would not be selling them down there on your position hoping someone takes it from you. Very odd.

    Thanks Irish…it helps to know it’s still busted and where. T

  108. 108
    TTupp Says:

    connection good here from my igloo

  109. 109
    cadillac Says:

    A while back a poster was explaining NAT as a stock that was going down. I apologize for not remembering who it was. Sure enough that stock sunk. However, it is up today on no appearant news. Have rates turned around? Any explanations would be greatly appreciated.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Hey Cadillac,

    It was Bill and I think he is one of the ones completely frozen out of the site. If you think about oil over 90 the move in the tankers over the last 2 days makes some sense. I’m not chasing them now but I would like to talk with him about it.

    check out FRO, GNK, GMR same kind of move.

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    NFX – this would be an all time closing high.

    Nice end of day rally in crude

    Beer thirty rapidly approaching.

  112. 112
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Got the 2nd’s of WNR a little higher. They report on 11/15 vs 11/1 for TSO. Do they run up together when the first reports good news?

  113. 113
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- On 8-17-07 NFX closed @ $58.08

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    SU trying to give up again.

    NBR caving below support

  115. 115
    scoop006 Says:

    I stand corrected . Quote 113 was based on SCOTTRADE INFO that is WRONG

  116. 116
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – DO the IS people think your system is fixed?

  117. 117
    ram Says:

    58.08 was an abnormal spike one day. I believe SAMB knew what happened.

  118. 118
    apbd Says:

    Z:
    Refreshing OK now from Cottonwood, AZ
    apbd

  119. 119
    zman Says:

    ram – in general, yes. In this case, the cap is probably close on TSO as Tricenda called the value there. I would expect a buck or two more upside maybe a little more. But people should be looking at other stocks and valuations and that should life some other boats like vlo, fto, wnr

  120. 120
    zman Says:

    Thanks A

    RIG trying to go positive.

  121. 121
    ram Says:

    ZMAN – Is TLM affected by the recent issues in Canada?

  122. 122
    zman Says:

    Well, the SU XS trade is still living up to its name but we have time and I think it will back off a lot more when oil does. And least enough to make for a small gain.

  123. 123
    zman Says:

    ram re TLM – oh yes but they’re so cheap they should be somewhat insulated from a decline, plus there’s that takeover rumor out there.

    NFX trying a breakout. So cheap and yet so little interest…

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    and there it goes. NFX all time high. I know it looks like chasing but if I were not already in I’d strongly consider it. If you think about it they said great things and the stock is only 4 points above when they said great things on the 2Q conference call.

  125. 125
    zman Says:

    today was a beautiful breakout day for BTU. Letting my second half run for a bit.

  126. 126
    kiaora Says:

    Z…Do you still have the TSO 47.5 Calls?

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    K – yes. Figure the downside is a bit limited. Will sell early next week, probably before earnings on Nov 1.

    SU recovery unreal.

  128. 128
    zman Says:

    Website Problem Watch:

    Host has no idea when it will be fixed. The problem is with Suddenlink level 3 in Dallas. I’ll be posting posts here and on the back and will be commenting over the weekend on the backup site.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    NFX hahahahahah!!! Have a great weekend gang!!!

  130. 130
    jiveyjr Says:

    great analysis on NFX…thnx…good weekend to all

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    time check test

  132. 132
    aaatest Says:

    z that was fast. time check test

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    ok, world , how is the site responding now?

  134. 134
    aaatest Says:

    that was extremely slow

  135. 135
    zman Says:

    time check test 2

  136. 136
    drdavis124 Says:

    O.K. @9:50

  137. 137
    zman Says:

    Morning Dr D and Thanks! Keep your fingers crossed….

  138. 138
    zman Says:

    Also refresh to see the beginnings of the weekly wrap post.

  139. 139
    ram Says:

    Site does not work well in California

  140. 140
    scoop006 Says:

    Site A-OK in NJ

  141. 141
    TTupp Says:

    test

  142. 142
    TTupp Says:

    who knows when ptr reports, ceo and sn report Tuesday…

    z– site is slow from my Canadian igloo, it was okay for like a few hrs late fri. weird

  143. 143
    TTupp Says:

    now its fast, this is weird…

  144. 144
    laser light therapy for psoriasis Says:

    laser light therapy for psoriasis

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