24
Oct

Wednesday – Oil Inventory Day, A Look At Drybulks, and XTO

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Commodity Watch:

  • Crude Oil: December crude started trading as the front month yesterday rallying in the morning of news of a lack of a cease fire between Turkey and the PKK and increased rebel activity in Nigeria. It then sold off closing down $0.75 at $85.27. This morning it is trading off another dime this morning having test and bounced off of the $85 level overnight.
  • Natural Gas: Closed off $0.13 to $6.76 on support. Despite the arrival of more fall/winter like weather gas is again trading up a nickel this morning. The fall of the last two days can be linked to a sympathetic downward move with oil but also because the forecast calls for a resumption of mild weather beginning next week.

EIA Inventory Report Expectations (from the Dow Jones and Bloomberg Surveys)

exp-102307.jpg

Z Comments

  • Crude: The range was pretty wide here with some analysts looking for a draw down of as much as 2 million barrels and some looking for a similar sized build. While its difficult to gauge a specific week's results at any time of the year it is especially so when the refining picture is clouded by maintenance season. We should be beginning to exit the second maintenance season of the year now which will mean a pick up in oil demand. As far as today goes, I'd bet that the now four day pull back in crude prices is arrested only with a draw. 
  • Gasoline: Not seen as much of a factor contributing to the direction of oil at this time of year. Last week surprise boost came from a jump in blending components and not increased make on the part of refiners. Demand generally increases at this point following the post summer slump so you could see a bit of a surprise unless blending adds once again rally.
  • Distillates: Blending is not an issue here and while we are above the five year average are also 5% below year ago levels and the dirtier variety of distillates used to heat homes should see demand start to advance in the immediate future but probably not in this report (see the figure below). Those light blue bars start fall as the weather cools off. The purplish bar is the beginning of winter and should move accordingly soon.

dist-vs-hdds-102307.jpg

What A Difference A Week Makes Watch: Dry Bulk shippers are actually cheaper than they were before the big rally as estimates continue to fly up. (DRYS) premiums are too rich for my blood but I plan on playing the group before they start reporting numbers later next week.

drybulk-102307.jpg

Earnings Watch:

  • COP: Reported $2.23 vs expectations of $2.17.
    • refining utilization: 97% in U.S.; 94% global during the quarter ...not too shabby.
    • During the quarter COP paid down down debt to get to a 20% debt to cap ratio, bought back $2.5 B in stock, and funded $2.8 B in CapEx
    • Upstream: 3Q operating income was down slightly from 2Q but up very slightly from 3Q06 due to a combination of lower volume, higher op costs, higher oil prices and lower nat gas prices. Volumes fell to 1.8 mm BOEpd in 3Q07 from 1.9 in the prior quarter and 2.0 in the YoY due to a combination of asset sales, scheduled downtime, and normal declines. These results seemingly lackluster results were known since the 2Q press release.
    • Downstream: results were also off as previously announced.
    • Chemicals: shows a nice sequential recovery.
    • Lukoil: results were off a bit on lower realized prices which were partially offset by higher volumes and a great equity ownership %.
    • Outlook:
      • 4Q: repurchase another $2 to $3 B of stock
      • 4Q: expect E&P volumes to rise 50 to 60,000 BOEpd relative to 3Q (2.8 to 3.3%) ... this is positive since they have guided production lower for each of the last two quarters.
      • 4Q: expect global refinery utilization in the mid 90%s
    • Conference call at 11 Est.
  • NBR: looked pretty weak. Wish I had had another week on those October puts. Oh well, at least I know I was right which counts for nothing but I'll be listening to conference call and re evaluating a re-entry afterwards.

Earnings The Rest Of This Week: Also the 3Q earnings tab has been updated.

earnings-3rd-wk-oct.jpg

Stocks We Care About Today Watch:

  • (XTO) reported a very good quarter and boosted production guidance after making a Barnett Shale acquisition.
  • Reported CFPS of $2.34 vs $2.28 expected. Missed earnings by a penny (who cares?)
  • Reported Revenue of $1.42 B vs $1.41 B expected,
  • 3Q production was up 24% YoY (14% organic, 10% from acquisitions); up 10% sequentially and 3% above the high end of guidance,
  • Increased 2007 production guidance from 17% to 18% and 2008 from 15% to 17%,
  • Cost guidance looks pretty much in line with recent  quarters,
  • Hedge: 60% of 4Q gas hedged at $8.97; almost as much of expected 2008 production hedged at $8.35.
  • Announced Barnett Shale acquisition: 24,000 acres bringing their total position to 240,000; about half of their total acreage is core. Their engineers peg reserves at "in excess of 200 Bcf) so the $550 million acquisition price yields a respectable $2.75 / mcf acq cost. This is high to last year's all in F&D of $1.74 but it will be a small piece of the reserve puzzle.  The acquisiti0n brings between 300 and 350 drilling locations.
  • Barnett Update: reduced rig count from 24 to 20 for the foreseeable future. They've also moved many of the rigs from drilling in the non-core to the core of the play as they were getting ready to out drill their gathering infrastructure. They say its not a reflection of non-core economics and I believe them.
  • Woodford update: "pleasantly surprised" was the description on the conference call for the five recently drilled wells, all around the 3 Bcf mark but spread over a wide area of the play.

  • Analysts were pretty pleased with the quarter and with the Q&A session on the conference call.
  • The stock however failed to advance with the group. It may have been the penny miss on earnings or the acquisition but when you stop to think that after maintenance and growth CapEx that these guys are going to kick off nearly a billion dollars in FCF this year you've got to wonder if people aren't wanting to see a buyback.  
  • I'd expect their 2008 CFPS numbers to rise by a minimum of 5% which takes into account the increased production guidance and is offset by a little anticipated cost creep. On that basis they're trading at 6.5x eventual Street CFPS which makes them cheap to most of their near sized peers (except CHK) given their 85% gas weighted production, high teens growth rate, long reserve life asset basis, mongo drilling inventory and low cost structure. I'll be long soon.
  • Comments on the N.American gas markets: storage is not as full as some people think and demand will increasingly be driven by weather and not industrial as more gas is demanded for electricity consumption. Seeing more tightness in rig labor which is a them you should get used to hearing about in the coming months, years and decades.

 

Holdings Watch: No Changes. Holdings tab is updated here.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: FBR cut its E&P coverage list to hold from buy including NFX, PQ etc, (WFT) to buy at Credit Suisse, (SII) to buy at Calyon, (EXM) cut to hold at Opco.

Questions After the Bell Watch:

zman:I realize that you double down,but do you sell calls or roll against your positions? tks ~ benboby. I do from time to time but never naked. Generally, the trades are against positions in stocks like (NFX) and I may take on a little CHK to do the same. With 90% of all options expiring worthless out there the way out of the money options are kind of like easy money, especially if you mange to do it consistently. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

105 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Inventory Day, A Look At Drybulks, and XTO”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    3:07 am EST

    Crude Lower But Downside Limited Before EIA Data

    Dow Jones Newswires

    SINGAPORE — Crude oil futures hovered close to $85 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as traders adjusted their positions ahead of weekly U.S. government oil data which could show across-the-board increases in the country’s oil inventories and provide some relief to the tight supply outlook.

    Given unseasonably low crude and product stock levels, even modest increases could weigh on prices.

    “Prices may fall to test $84,” if U.S. crude stocks rose as forecast, said Ken Hasegawa at brokerage Fimat Japan.

    On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light sweet crude for delivery in December traded at $85.07 a barrel at 0645 GMT, losing 20 cents in the Globex electronic session.

    Heating oil futures for November ticked 2 points higher to 230 cents a gallon, while November reformulated gasoline blendstock traded at 210.70 cents, down 19 points.

    On London’s ICE Futures exchange, December Brent crude was down 10 cents at $82.75 a barrel, while November gasoil changed hands at $720.75 a metric ton, up $1.75 from Tuesday’s settlement.

    Nymex crude Tuesday settled lower for the third straight session, but market sentiment remains shored up — and prices are staying near record highs — because of expectations for near-term fundamentals to stay tight.

    Due to projections for demand to creep higher heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter, relatively low stock levels have caused some unease.

    “The difference between undersupply versus oversupply is so thin. The margin of error is so tight,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp., said in an overnight note to clients.

    “The thing is that if the economy fares a bit better than some believe, oil is more than likely headed toward $95 a barrel.”

    The market’s focus is on the Weekly Petroleum Status Report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due for release at 1430 GMT.

    The country’s commercial crude inventories are seen rising by 300,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 19, against an expected 0.3-percentage-point uptick in average refinery run rates from 87.3% of capacity, according to the average of predictions from nine analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires.

    Gasoline stockpiles, still near record lows, probably rose for a third straight week, climbing by 1.1 million barrels.

    Stocks of distillate, which comprise heating oil and diesel, likely increased by 200,000 barrels, the survey showed.

    Meanwhile, the dollar weakened against the yen, continuing a trend that’s expected to limit the price downside for the dollar-denominated oil market.

    At midday in Asia, the greenback traded around Y114.32.

    Regional stock markets lost ground, partly on a report that Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) is expected to announce bigger-than-expected losses for the third quarter.

    —By Yee Kai Pin, Dow Jones Newswires

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    If anybody sees an explanation on FBR’s rating chop on the E&Ps I’d love to hear it.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Ram – there’s another opportunity for you on DRYS

  4. 4
    rammastr Says:

    O.K. Thanks.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Big call volumes early on NFX in the 50 and 55 Novembers.

    COP off $1.10 which is completely not what I would have that.

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    9:28 am EST

    Crude Lower But Downside Limited Before EIA Data

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures were steady early Wednesday, pausing after three straight losses in previous sessions as traders wait for weekly U.S. inventory data expected to show builds in crude oil and refined product stockpiles.

    The front-month December light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently down 29 cents, or 0.3%, at $84.98 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell 13 cents to $82.72 a barrel.

    Analysts are expecting a 300,000-barrel build in crude oil stockpiles, a 1.1 million-barrel build in gasoline stocks and a 200,000-barrel build in distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, according to the mean forecast in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. The data, from the Department of Energy, is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT and is also expected to show a 0.3 percentage point rise in refinery use to 87.6% of capacity.

    “Although we anticipate a total crude stock draw of about 500,000 barrels, we do feel that surprises could fall toward the bearish side,” Jim Ritterbusch, president of trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Assoc. said in a research note.

    Prices have come off about $5 a barrel from their intraday record high of $90.07, reached Friday. Prices had surged amid forecasts for a big gap between global oil supply and demand in the fourth quarter, a weaker dollar and Turkish threats to attack Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq.

    While none of this has changed, many analysts say crude’s rise was too hard and fast to justify record prices.

    Adding to weight on prices, an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries delegate said some members, including the cartel’s defacto leader Saudi Arabia, could push for a second 500,000 barrels-a-day output rise at a meeting in November. The rise would be in addition to a 500,000 barrels-a-day output rise due to start Nov. 1, which was agreed to in September.

    Another potential drag on prices was a 9.8% drop in Japanese crude oil and condensate imports for September, compared to a year earlier, reported by the country’s Ministry of Finance. A drop in refined product demand erased an increase in crude oil demand for thermal power plants since the closure of the earthquake-hit Kashiwazaki nuclear power plant in mid-July.

    The steady fall in demand has been attributed to shifts to relatively cheaper, cleaner-burning natural gas by manufacturers and large retailers for their in-house power generation and boilers.

    In forecasts by OPEC, the International Energy Agency and the Department of Energy, Japanese winter demand plays a big part in fourth quarter projections.

    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, fell 66 points, or 0.3%, to $2.1023 a gallon. November heating oil rose 21 points, or 0.1%, to $2.3019 a gallon.

    —By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires

  7. 7
    rammastr Says:

    Not like Mon A.M. buying opty.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    DO off to races again.

    Ram – No, I was just point out the volatility as it was off $3.50ish at the open. Did you see how much estimates came up in the last week?

  9. 9
    rammastr Says:

    Are you looking at the NOV 50’s on NFX?

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    NFX – yeah, I was set to buy and they ran hard. Got caught worrying about what the FBR guy had said … Gheit is one of my favorite guys and I’m pretty sure he still covers the mid caps.

  11. 11
    rammastr Says:

    NM seems to be down the most. Do you know anything about them?

  12. 12
    Nicky Says:

    morning all – market sentiment seems to have turned more bearish which probably means we will go up after the data!

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    RIG forms JV to own / operate a 50% working interest in 2 new ultra deepwater drillships for $238 mm

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Re NM; just the basics, 9 panamax, 1 capesize and a bunch of smaller handymax’s, they are principally contract …if Bill F is around he can probably tell you a lot more…

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Details on the RIG contract:

    Both drillships are under construction in Korea. The first has a 4 year contract already signed for a 2009 start date at $524K per day. This is expandable to a five year commitment. This ship’s total constructed cost will be in the 650 million ball park and the five year contract would yield revenues of $935 million.

    market turning blood red again.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    COP getting bludgeoned…needs to hold current level 81.75.

    OII taking a little breather, still think it rallies into earnings on the Nov 1.

    Morning Nicky, just saw your comment. Yeah, it looks like everyone is “expecting a surprise”…if you expect a surprise, doesn’t that mean that its, not, a um, surprise? Looks like they’re trying to gear a rally to me.

  17. 17
    scoop006 Says:

    Z=re # 15 do you know the operational expenses?

  18. 18
    O.W. Says:

    huge decline..wow!

  19. 19
    Nicky Says:

    wow catastropic numbers. how could they be so far out.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    down 5.3 bullish

    bbuying COP calls buying APA calls

  21. 21
    Nicky Says:

    Sane – will be interested to see the api numbers if you get them.

  22. 22
    Nicky Says:

    I saw this morning that wti inventories were at record levels for this time of year as were rbob – that isn’t going to matter.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    gasoline down by 2 mm barrels, ouch

    distillates down by 1.8 mm barrels… little earlier than I thought.

    could get any trades off even taking offers on NFX and APA…will wait a bit now as they seem to be settling. COP resuming downward path as well.

  24. 24
    drdavis124 Says:

    BTJ For your long term holding. Big in seisemic. sm. cap. no debt & perfect takover.Reuters U.S. Company News
    08:19 a.m. 10/24/2007

    BOLT TECHNOLOGY (BTJ) : * First quarter earnings per share
    $0.60 * First quarter sales rose 53 percent to $15.26 million *
    Says first quarter hurt by delay in shipment of an airgun
    system order, now rescheduled for delivery in second quarter *
    Reuters Estimates first quarter earnings per share $0.58,
    revenue $15.14 million

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    anybody having probs with the site slow to reload today. Nicky is and I’m having some slow refresh on other sites but not here.

  26. 26
    aitrader Says:

    Yep – site is very slow.

    DRYS down 6 from the non-triple top yesterday.

  27. 27
    Sambone Says:

    Happened to me several times this morning.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Products outpacing the crude numbers, nice crack spread rebound underway. NG up in sympathy.

    Thanks AI – N.T.T., lol. Now tell me when to short the Chinese Oils

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Site slow: could be traffic load which if you can believe it peaks from 8 to 11 Est on Wednesday’s.

    Everything is falling off a bit with this cruddy broad market.

  30. 30
    Popeye Says:

    Wow, that pop in the OIH did not last long. So do I have this correct, imports down but storage up Y2Y?

  31. 31
    sane Says:

    API

    Crude 6.3M Draw.
    Distillate 1.1 Draw.
    Gasoline 1.5M Draw.

  32. 32
    sane Says:

    Was something closed or shut in?

  33. 33
    aitrader Says:

    Do you think there is a chance the other shippers will follow DRYS in sympathy Z?

  34. 34
    Nicky Says:

    WTI had dropped relatively far more than products so it has room to stage a ‘correction’ here and the bearish count still stay valid. However for that to remain the case we have to stay below 88.50.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Popeye

    imports down 1.3 mm bopd from the prior week

    inventories
    crude: down 5.3 which puts it down 4.7% YoY
    gaso: down 2.0 , down 6.6% YoY
    dist: down 1.8, down 6.6% YoY

    Sane: the only thought would be that imports were the problem at least for crude as demand was actually lower from the refineries. I’d bet the HSC took a fog day or two…happens this time of year and they don’t exactly PR that kind of stuff

    AI – yes but it’s probably brief…like I wrote today, they’ve gotten cheaper over the last week. I think EGLE gets hurt worse than most if their is a pull back. It would be nice to have live access to the Baltic price indexes as that’s got to be off today.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    call in with host, they will advise but they had no trouble reports…now they have one.

    Sane: thanks for the API numbers. I had dinner with one of their oil lobbyists this weekend and I opened up with “why are your numbers so different from the EIA’s” He handed me a beer and said “because the EIA uses so many estimates and we don’t” He’s my new sister-in-law’s dad so maybe I can swing a trade on memberships.

  37. 37
    aitrader Says:

    Baltic Index Subscription rates – http://www.balticexchange.com/default.asp?action=article&ID=37

    Free trial here – http://www.balticexchange.com/default.asp?action=article&ID=40

  38. 38
    Nicky Says:

    WTI made it back to 62% of the move from rally highs to the overnight lows. So if it is going to turn back down now is as good a time as any!

    It appears from the data that it was down to imports falling off a cliff.

    I am wondering whether the broader markets may start to weigh again – housing data was very bearish – all should start to impact oil.

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    COP conference call is the most boring thing I have listened to today.

    Ok …everybody hit refresh and see if it works better now.

  40. 40
    Popeye Says:

    Site is better but I think I will take my money and go back to bed.

  41. 41
    Sambone Says:

    11:12 am EST

    Nymex Crude Jumps After US Inventories Fall

    By Matt Chambers
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures shot higher Wednesday after weekly Department of Energy inventory data showed unexpected falls in U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories.

    The front-month December light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up $1.54, or 1.8%, at $86.81 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose $1.29 to $84.14 a barrel.

    Crude oil stockpiles slumped 5.3 million barrels to 316.6 million barrels last week, the DOE’s Energy Information Administration said. That compared with forecasts for a 300,000-barrel increase in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Gasoline stockpiles fell 2 million barrels to 193.8 million barrels, after expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel build, and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, fell 1.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a 200,000-barrel build.

    “I don’t think anybody expected such a big draw in crude stocks — there’s nothing bearish about this report,” said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. “Draws in all energy sectors caused a $2 push to the upside” from the $85 a barrel level prices were at before the data was released.

    Prices are now headed back toward their intraday record high of $90.07, reached Friday, after three straight losing sessions that saw them trading under $85 early Wednesday. Crude oil had surged amid forecasts for a big gap between global oil supply and demand in the fourth quarter, a weaker dollar and Turkish threats to attack Kurdish rebels in Northern Iraq.

    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was up 4.35 cents, or 2.1%, to $2.1524 a gallon. November heating oil rose 4.52 cents, or 2%, to $2.345 a gallon. -By Matt Chambers, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2062; matt.chambers@dowjones.com -0-

    (MORE TO FOLLOW)

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Popeye it seems most on the planet agree with you…broad market ruining what should have been pretty good oil day.

    COP’s CEO Mulva should sell coffee beans. Story sounds good if you can stay awake.

    TRADE: COP NOV $80 Calls for average $3.45

  43. 43
    O.W. Says:

    no ZEB blast for this last one .. just a heads up..

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Thanks OW, it just went out…I was feeling a bit verbose. Let me know if you receive it.

  45. 45
    Sambone Says:

    The mighty PHIL

    http://www.321energy.com/reports/flynn/current.html

  46. 46
    O.W. Says:

    arrived, Z. thanks.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Still on the COP CC:

    said Nigeria saying now they are looking at making changes to existing contracts. Not good for Shell especially. Long term a bullish thing for oil . If this new regime thinks it can bump taxes and/or sharing that will definitely curb investment

  48. 48
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    are you setting a stop on the COP 80s?

    I’m here late but they’re round 3.05

    Stop at .60 give it 20% of bid?

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Ok, yanked every offending link to my site I could find, site should be much fast er now.

    COP down $2 now. One pissed off analyst on the call and I think his stuff is nothing new (small write downs each quarter should not be a focus). Other’s seemed mildly positive.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Q – I watching it for a hold of about 81.90 for now. Will add more if the stock breaks to 79.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    sorry, meant 80.90.

  52. 52
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Been tough getting to your site today.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Host issue. They thought they had it fixed. They did not …what does it do, just spin and spin?

  54. 54
    Sambone Says:

    Seems to be working now, but I would refresh and nothing happened.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Looks like it’s an internet service issue…geographic issue. I have three PC all a little slow but having no problems getting on.

  56. 56
    scoop006 Says:

    When I hit f5 to update page stays blank.
    Did not receive ZBLAST for COP trade

  57. 57
    scoop006 Says:

    Update working

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    We have remote access to a box in Texas and it cannot pull the site up there. Our three boxes at the global ZEB HQ are working fine. Florida is definitely having some problems … don’t know about the Canadians but it appears that some of the internet trunks are having a problem connecting. Some are down completely, some are intermittent to my host. Sorry about this but it’s out of my hands.

    If you’re not receiving blast today it’s probably related to the same issue. If you don’t normally receive blasts please make sure your spam filter is not sending them to bulk mail. Yahoo mail is especially bad about this.

  59. 59
    Sambone Says:

    Something must be wrong, GOOG is down. LOL

  60. 60
    scoop006 Says:

    CNBC says market needs “INSPIRATION”

  61. 61
    Sambone Says:

    Z Off subject, but this is the best explanation on the subprime. Scoop, see “sentiment” on this loop.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    oil getting a little lunch time surge here.

    NFX ran right out of my hands…earnings tomorrow.

    VLO having a very nice day.

  63. 63
    cattleman Says:

    Z – Any guess on the duration of positive move in refiners?

  64. 64
    kyleandy Says:

    took 15 min to reconnect after hitting retresh. just looked at nfx options and thot expensive !! so bot stock and sold 3 nov 55 @ 50 against it. if one wanted to play just options cud buy the 40’s and sell the 55’s

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    K – agreed expensive and if they don’t beat or say good thing the deflation of IV kills the November calls. I was trying to buy it right and missed…again. Still holding the stock and if it runs may sell some calls on Friday against it.

    My sincere apologies about the delay…they are supposed to be rebooting my apache server soon.

    Cattleman – I’d guess through at least Tuesday unless the broader kills you. FTO and ALJ making the beginning of nice moves. I’m still just holding TSO and VLO… surprsied TSO isn’t doing a little better today given the big drop in mogas stocks on the left coast. Probably only a matter of time.

  66. 66
    kyleandy Says:

    s-bone funny!!!

  67. 67
    scoop006 Says:

    Sambone- not to far from reality, & I found it very funny. Thanks

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    WNR still down on day…that probably rallies over next few.

    COP getting murdered and I just don’t get it other than technically it looks to go another point lower and since it was down in a weak market it will continue to get weaker.

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    From Nicky relayed via smoke signal:

    Z – the action in the broader market is pretty ominous right now. This needs to start rallying. If this falls apart into the close which its threatening to do we could see much lower levels.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Ram – there’s a better level on DRYS for you, that is if you are not concerned about a general market melt.

  71. 71
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I’m in the South and just got back on after over an hour of trying.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    I’m going to split my hosts skull

  73. 73
    Sambone Says:

    11:39 am EST

    Nymex Crude Jumps After US Inventories Fall

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    1534 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude oil futures surge higher after weekly US inventories data shows a surprise fall in crude inventories, down 5.3M barrels. BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian cites “weak import numbers…down by over 1M b/d.” The analyst highlights a big draw on the Gulf coast and Atlantic Coast compared to volumes. Points to a heavy draw in distillates, diesel product rather than heating oil, supported by recent reports of inceased exports of diesel to Latin America. ICE Brent December +111c at $83.99/bbl, and Nymex light sweet crude December +140c at $86.69/bbl. (AHE)

  74. 74
    Popeye Says:

    BHI refusing to go red.

  75. 75
    O.W. Says:

    buying program kicked in

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Oil up almost $2

    Popeye – see that and from what I understand they should be acting weaker than they have been. See NBR today.

  77. 77
    scoop006 Says:

    Wasn’t BHI subjuct to takeover rumors last week?

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sambone, had not seen the L. American diesel export comment.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    HAL going positive.

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    NFX and APA acting very well before earnings tonight.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Nice to see a little green, especially RIG which many had given up for dead.

    OII going positive after yesterday’s run, now up $0.40 and may take some profits.

    TSO and VLO doing very well.

    Need COP to stop getting killed but it has shaved a buck off the lows

    BTU – wow

  82. 82
    O.W. Says:

    time to rid of our OII into this rally? I fear tomorrow could bring another change of trend.. apparently there’s a rumor going on regarding the fed cut next week (rumor says another 50bps).. we know what happens when the fact shows…

  83. 83
    Sambone Says:

    Z – another 40 minutes offline

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    TSO regaining 55, VLO back to 70
    charts look much improved

    WNR now big postive along with ALJ , FTO …figures.

  85. 85
    zman Says:

    Z TRADE: Jan $55 Calls NFX for $2.25

    OW : when in doubt sell half. I think we get some follow through on crude in the morning but as to the broader I have not a clue

  86. 86
    jazzkool Says:

    Z, just sold 5 of the 10 OII calls that I purchased off a Z blast on Monday for an $1100 gain-not bad for a 2 day hold. Thank you very much. You are the greatest. Would have made more if I had time to watch the stock direction.

    Jazz

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    OW : you are right ya know. I couldn’t have expected a move like that so quick so what am I waiting for? Hmmm, think of taking half off pre bell.

  88. 88
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Bought OIIKO Mon @ $2.65. Sold yesterday @ $ 4.00. Seems to me the current premium is very high. You should listen to your own advise and not be greedy. Thanks very much, could not of done this trade without you

  89. 89
    TTupp Says:

    z- no apa calls here?

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Scoop, I agree, not the lack of real collapse in the bid from up $0.90 to up $0.20….implied volatility expansion. Will sell in morning.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    T – I tried, missed, tried again missed and then got distracted by site issues. Should have just bought it …went ahead and did that with the NFX where I have a little better sense that they will have good things to say on the cc and the pr

  92. 92
    TTupp Says:

    yea i wanted to too, but i hat submitting options orders after 330, it is a fairly liq. issue tho

  93. 93
    TTupp Says:

    i cant remeberwere the spreads better than 7.5% in the prime trading hrs? 10-12 , 1-2?

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    T – I can’t remember either

  95. 95
    TTupp Says:

    Z- drys too expensive? sell som puts mister πŸ˜‰ did good las month on the call sale! ill give you oney back guarentee! jk! these premiums are great tho

    altrader re 26, do you think were in for a reversal in drys? yesterday i mentioned it didnt really look like a well laid out TT, i was just givin my HO. πŸ˜‰ some times when severe market forces force a quick severe drop ect., charts can become misleading…. these guys will blow out earnings as bill said i think, and we will see renewed buying, again, IMHO. this to a chartist might look more like a coil or a acending notwithstanding the weird friday action

  96. 96
    aitrader Says:

    T – just seemed to be see-sawing between 120 and 128.5 or so. Still learning the ropes here from Mr. Z and friends tho πŸ™‚

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    You TA guys need to gang up and send me to a course I guess. Coil, acsending? I know pennets, basic support, resist but I’m probably 80% fundy based trader.

    Here’s hoping they get site access fixed for tomorrow!

    all in all, not a bad day…see ya’ll a bit later.

  98. 98
    zman Says:

    wow NFX trading over $52 post close…. wonder if anyone has access to FBR….love to see the reason for all the mid cap downgrades this am… ok, now see ya.

  99. 99
    TTupp Says:

    big day tomorrow everyone! alberta government is to give their decision about the royalties paid by producers.

    i know im a canuck and am embarased about my lack of knowledge about the canadian oil’s, but is someone in the know about who will be the most effected (E&P’s with a MC > $20B) if the full tariff is imposed?

    From what i do know, alot of the big guys are fairly well geographically diversified- besides SU, but they have some wiggle room on this issue considering pre existing contracts.

    ….Encana tops the lis i can think of….. anyone else??

  100. 100
    aitrader Says:

    Z – NFX just released its 3Q results. Looks like analysts were expecting .75 but NFX came in at .64 – http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=63798&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1067392&highlight= .

    Can’t see anything to explain the run up here. Perhaps you can see something in the report I’ve missed..?

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Excluding the non cash component its a penny beat of $0.76…I’ll have a piece out late tonight/early morning.

    Production was above mid point
    Woodford production jumped as did Monument Buttes. Been going through for last half hour…like what I see so far.

  102. 102
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – I am back in again. Since I did not see the NFX trade here or the blast – do you any words of wisdom?

  103. 103
    rammastr Says:

    Wow system working like the turbo just kicked in – fast.

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    looks like a good quarter for a company I have liked for a very long time. They should have a good day tomorrow but you never know in this market. If energy gets marked down I’ll be building a bigger position here again.

    I have not received confirmation that anything has been fixed from my host. As such, it may go down or be intermittent again. My apologies for the service interruption today but it was truly out of my hands. Blast today were partially disrupted by the system problem (some got them, some did not). If people are having problems receiving blasts (there are in general one or two a day) they should send me an email and we will try to get the problem fixed. In the end, everyone who wants the email is having it sent. Over a 100 now go out each time. Email provides vary on what they call spam. The first line of offense in receiving the email is to make sure the email you “subscribed to this site with” has the zmanalpha@gmail.com address added to it’s address book. I have done everything I can to make the Z Blasts non-spammy looking. If that does not work, you might try changing your email on the profile page. Finally, you can contact your email provider (google, yahoo, whatever) and see if they have any ideas.

  105. 105
    rammastr Says:

    O.K.

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