09
Oct

Tuesday – Another Downer?

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Commodity Watch:

  • Crude Oil: Low volume day yesterday as many oil traders were on vacation which combined with a small rebound in the dollar allowed November crude to plummet $2.20 to close just above $79. This morning traders should be back but are again selling the November contract down around $0.50.
  • Iran Production Boost. Iran plans to produce a little over 4.0 mm bopd beginning November 1. This is up from levels of around 3.8 mm bopd recently believed to have been produced. Funny thing about that given that Iran was one of the most vocal about not raising production in the September talks yet this will put them over their last known quota level.
  • Early Read on the EIA Inventory Report (from MF Global) NOTE: this week's report will be delayed until Thursday.
    • Crude up 1.5 million barrels
    • Gasoline down 0.35 million barrels
    • Distillates down 0.25 million barrels
  • Natural Gas: Down $0.23 to $6.85 yesterday as traders tracked oil lower and the tropics offered no sign of support. This morning gas looks flat.
  • Rockies Express East (Phase III) Could Be Delayed. The phase of the Rockies Express Pipeline that was scheduled for completion by January 2009 may be delayed by a year due to recent FERC changes to the regulatory timetable for the pipeline. RE is expected to transport 1.8 Bcfgpd from Wyoming and Colorado to Ohio. Z Comment: Not good news for producers like (BBG) who toil under a current glut environment in the Rockies.
  • Tropics Watch: Maybe a little something near the Yucatan but even Accuweather has eased off the Storm Gong after bricking the last 10 "oh my gosh this looks like the storm that killed 1200 people in 1957" storm calls it has made in the last three weeks.
  • Signs Of Winter Watch: The first noticeable cold front is scheduled to sweep into the eastern half of the U.S. this week.

Natural Gas Imports: Up 0.4 Bcfgpd from the prior week.

  • LNG Volumes Rise Slightly. At 1.24 Bcfgd, LNG sendout volumes were up slightly from last week and about 0.2 Bcfgpd above year ago levels.
  • Canadian Pipelines Also Up Slightly. Volumes from Canada increased 0.4 Bcfgpd from the prior week to 9.5 Bcfgpd, and about 0.2 Bcfgpd above year ago levels.

ng-imports-100807.jpg

Degree Days - Still Pretty Hot

  • Cooling Degree Days: 36 for the week ended Oct 6, down from 40 in the prior week. And still well above year ago and "normal" levels. Perhaps more important is the reading on electricity generation from the Edison Electric Institute which recorded a 2.4% increase in generation week to week despite the lower CDD reading. 

cdd-100807.jpg

  • Heating Degree Days: None to speak of yet at 18; this is down 17 from last year but less of a knock to gas demand than you'd think as the numbers are a bit squirrelly this time of year. 

My Early Quick Thoughts On Gas Storage This Week: 57 Bcf. Knowing this of course in a vacuum is useless until you know the Street's number which will matter and as of yet a number I have not seen this week. My 57 comes from a quick look at the weather that prevailed last week (ever so slightly cooler as seen above) contrasted with the fact that generation actually increased from week ago levels AND the fact that several nukes more nukes were down for unplanned maintenance last week. Countering the apparently increased cooling load demand placed on natural gas with the slight bump in imports gets me to my back of the envelope number which would boost the YoY storage deficit ever so slightly (say about 5 Bcf).

 

 

Holdings Watch:

CALLS:

  • (COP) - entered NOV $85s for $2.77. Last bid $2.25. Still hold the October $85s. 
  • (RIG) - entered the OCT $110 for $2.45. Last bid $2.80. This one should be quick. Still hold the October $115 but I'm not adding to them. Although they are not what I'd call a long shot yet, the deepwater drillers have taken a hit of late and I'm not sure as to the timing of a turnaround reaching the upper one-teens before expiration in two weeks.

PUTS: No Action.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: B of A initiates coal stocks (ANR) and (ICO) at neutral, (MEE) to buy at Stifel,

Berkshire Cuts Stake In  (PTR) Again. Bigger cut this time, down from 6.49% to 5.44%.

 

 

 

133 Responses to “Tuesday – Another Downer?”

  1. 1
    Nicky Says:

    Morning all. Love that comment above on Accuweather and the storms Z.
    Strange pop at the open.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Morning Nicky,

    Oil surged from down $0.50 to flat in the last fifteen minutes…reverse profit taking?

    Due to a family emergency I will be out of pocket in about 10 minutes until 11:30 est, but monitoring any chatter on my blackberry.

  3. 3
    Sambone Says:

    8:51 am EST

    Nymex Crude Under $79 On Dollar, Nigeria, Iraq

    Dow Jones Newswires
    From Market Talk
    Nymex Crude Under $79 On Dollar, Nigeria, Iraq

    1248 GMT [Dow Jones] Nymex crude is slightly lower Tues, having fallen under $79 in overnight trade. Prices are weighed down by a stronger dollar and signals that Royal Dutch Shell’s (RDSB) Nigerian production is set to increase. Iraq also continues to pump Kirkuk crude to the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey, which also pushes crude prices down. Nymex crude -50c at $78.52.(EL)

    0835 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude futures weaken Tuesday as ICE Brent front-month contract breaks Monday’s low of $76.14/bbl. A London-based trader warns Brent could correct lower and head to $75.50/bbl. Follow-though selling continues after Brent weakened sharply in US trading on news Royal Dutch Shell had lifted a force majeure on its Nigerian Forcados field, signaling supply could increase in coming months from West Africa. ICE Brent November -55c at $76.03/bbl, and Nymex WTI November -39c at $78.63/bbl. (AHE)

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    wow now up 40 cents…new war somewhere? HO and NG up too?

    well, at least I put a ? after today’s post title, lol.

  5. 5
    Nicky Says:

    Similar move with nat gas yesterday morning which was reversed in short order.

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    Not good for the US dollar and higher oil prices.
    http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/10/07/10158647.html

  7. 7
    Nicky Says:

    NOAA seem to be responsible for that pop – expecting a mild La Nina this winter (this is not news) which will mean a colder winter.

  8. 8
    aaatest Says:

    Test

  9. 9
    aaatest Says:

    How are the stocks opening, also can get commodities, ty Z

  10. 10
    irished Says:

    Zman
    Something on your site keeps reloading my page. Was not a problem before today.
    By the way Good Morning all.

  11. 11
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I’m having the same problem (1 item remaining).

  12. 12
    aaatest Says:

    Will fix when I get back to ofc…how r stocks/commodities?

  13. 13
    redjack Says:

    same here, clustermaps may the culorit

  14. 14
    redjack Says:

    culprit

  15. 15
    Sambone Says:

    10:13 am EST

    Nymex Crude Higher On Forecast 4Q Oil Demand Rise

    By Elizabeth Landau
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures edged higher on Tuesday following the release of a U.S. government report that forecast a year-on-year increase in oil demand in the fourth quarter.

    The front-month November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up 81 cents, or 1.03%, at $79.83 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 17 cents to $76.75 a barrel.

    Fourth-quarter global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.1%, or 1.78 million barrels a day, from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, this is a smaller increase than was predicted in earlier forecasts. Although the EIA trimmed its projection for the current quarter, it revised up demand for the fourth quarter of 2006.

    “At this point it appears that demand will continue to grow until something changes in terms of economic growth around the world,” said Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover, an energy risk management firm.

    Revised U.S. fourth-quarter oil demand is expected to average 20.91 million barrels a day, up 0.8%, or 160,000 barrels a day, from a year earlier.

    The report wasn’t entirely supportive of crude oil prices. For 2008, U.S. oil demand growth is projected to be 0.9%. This is slightly less than the 1% growth rate called for in the month-earlier forecast. The EIA also expects lower prices over the winter.

    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 1.18 cents, or 0.6%, to $2.0120 a gallon. November heating oil rose 79 points, or 0.4%, to $2.1675 a gallon.

    “The combination of OPEC’s recent announcement of increased supply and lower seasonal crude demand in the United States over the next two months points to crude prices easing slightly over the winter,” the EIA said in its monthly report, called the Short-Term Energy Outlook. This month’s outlook focused on the upcoming U.S. winter heating season.

    Crude prices were weighed down by signals of supply increases abroad. Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB) said Monday it lifted a force majeure on its Forcados oil terminal in Nigeria, which operated at a capacity of 380,000 barrels a day of oil before militant attacks shut it down in 2006. This signals that the company is set to begin pumping more oil from the area.

    Iraq also continues to pump Kirkuk crude to the Ceyhan export terminal in Turkey, where the flow had been suspended for 10 days in September. The export pipeline was also reportedly attacked and damaged on Sept. 18.

    Warm weather is also weighing on prices, said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

    “It’s a little hard to get excited about the heating season when we’ve got our air conditioners on,” Flynn said.

    Monday’s drop in price seems to follow the recent trend of price drops early in the week, and “the weakness typically makes way for strength later in the week” following inventory data from the Department of Energy, said Eric Wittenauer, an analyst at AG Edwards in St. Louis. Still, he expects prices to trend lower.

    —By Elizabeth Landau, Dow Jones Newswires

  16. 16
    bill Says:

    drys to the moon!

  17. 17
    apbd Says:

    Hi All:
    Ditto # 11
    apbd

  18. 18
    aaatest Says:

    Will fix when I get back to the ofc, can some one give me an update on the stocks??? and oil anmd gas… On my blackberry in a car now thjanks oin advance…will fix clusterap prob when I get back

    Z

  19. 19
    Sambone Says:

    Stocks – Mostly green across the board.

  20. 20
    Sambone Says:

    COP up .55 to 84.88

  21. 21
    j Says:

    Z,

    Most energy stocks popped early then dropped back to opening levels and are now slowly inching back up. OIH up about half a percent.

  22. 22
    aaatest Says:

    Ty j and sam

  23. 23
    j Says:

    Z,

    TSO leading the refiners up 2.5%, Now sniffing $51. VLO lagging, but positive.

  24. 24
    Sambone Says:

    Oil above 80 now

  25. 25
    Nicky Says:

    WTI outperforming products and Brent.

  26. 26
    j Says:

    Z,

    All the refiners are running now. TSO still leading up 4%

  27. 27
    Nicky Says:

    h & s still looks good on wti.

  28. 28
    Nicky Says:

    Has the dollar reversal today got anything to do with the crude move I wonder.

  29. 29
    Nicky Says:

    Distillates 50% retracement of the move down comes in at 21912.

    61.8% comes in at 22028.

  30. 30
    aaatest Says:

    How r stocks doing now…Z

  31. 31
    Nicky Says:

    WTI already through the 61.8% retracement level. Now close to the 75% retracement level which is at 80.94.

  32. 32
    j Says:

    Z,

    OIH up about 1%. Refiners still showing strength. DRYS up another $7.

  33. 33
    Brian08 Says:

    Refiners at HOD…

    Thanks for VLO, Z…I’m out of those…

  34. 34
    aaatest Says:

    Ty

  35. 35
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – ESV showing more strength than RIG. IS RIG handicapped by the merger for a while? DRYS = holy cow!

  36. 36
    Brian08 Says:

    NFX and CHK at HOD as well…

    If we could get CHK over that $37 barrier, that’d be fantastic…Touched $36.96 today…

  37. 37
    Nicky Says:

    This move up in the energy futures looks ridiculous. short covering…

  38. 38
    calvino Says:

    Good afternoon. How about that btu. Perhaps flying in sympathy with?? chicom shenhua, and their lousy ipo. !!Chairman Chen Biting professed to be far from thrilled, saying the 90% surge was within expectations and not very satisfactory.!! Must not have satisfied the party policy committee price directives, I guess. Perhaps also in sympathy, chicompec made a humble 5.5% move to the upside. Must have been the news of the Oracle selling. We just can’t get any respect anywhere anymore. This is personal and counterintuitive wish, because I know we should send all our money to the chicoms and all the other emerging markets, however I am happy that someone is investing in Burlington Northern, go WArren!

  39. 39
    Sambone Says:

    N – I think it’s the US dollar causing this rally.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    I’m back…getting my head around these moves.

    Wow – COP, TSO, VLO (70 calls way ahead of the game now)

    VLO – Q asked yesterday about 72, there ya go

    BTU up $2, options starting to move nicely now

    DRYS – nice for those still in, the EGLE is still running high too

    ESV – frankly could be a lot worse, it’s up less than what it lost yesterday…
    RIG – don’t know what’s holding it back; DO is recovering better today
    NBR flat also to down a little …nice

    CHK – agreed, need about 37.3 for LT breakout.

    NFX – nice

  41. 41
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Wow, my VLO Oct 70s are in the green!

    These were down 70+% last week.

    Q.

  42. 42
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    I’m gonna buy some more RIG calls.

  43. 43
    calvino Says:

    How bout that Lehman upgrade for goog to a mere 735. That makes it significantly more valuable than xom, seeing as to how it already passed cvx. Hoofy is going on the stampede?

  44. 44
    Sambone Says:

    11:44 am EST

    Crude Up As EIA Sees Demand Growth, USD Weakens

    By ELIZABETH LANDAU
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures pushed past $80 Tuesday as a U.S. government report forecasting year-on-year increase in oil demand in the fourth quarter spurred buying and as the dollar weakened.

    The front-month November light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was recently up $1.55, or 2%, at $80.57 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange rose 94 cents to $77.52 a barrel.

    Front-month November reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 2.37 cents, or 1.2%, to $2.0239 a gallon. November heating oil rose 2.04 cents, or 0.9%, to $2.1800 a gallon.

    Fourth-quarter global oil demand is expected to rise by 2.1%, or 1.78 million barrels a day, from a year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, this is a smaller increase than was predicted in earlier forecasts. Although the EIA trimmed its projection for the current quarter, it revised up demand for the fourth quarter of 2006.

    “The fact that EIA came out and said demand would be higher was friendly and positive to pricing,” said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers in Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.

    News that a Hess Corp. (HES) gasoline-making unit in Port Reading, N.J., was shut Monday also boosted prices, Rosado added.

    The dollar fell slightly against the euro, meaning oil is cheaper for those buying in other currencies.

    “The dollar is once again under a little bit of pressure,” said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst with MF Global in New York.

    —By Elizabeth Landau, Dow Jones Newswires

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Hey Sambone – fun to watch these guys flip flop during the same day!

    Q – I’m think about adding November RIGs at this point. If oil falls it looks like it would be one to crack lower yet again. Very strange action there.

    ESV – still holding the down channel

  46. 46
    redjack Says:

    VLO Nov 67.5 puts…..very high volume..

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    TRADE: Out HALF VLO 70 OCT CALLS for $2.65.

    This is one I doubled up when it went the wrong way initially. This half is out up 80% from average cost of $1.18.

  48. 48
    Sambone Says:

    Z – They are all “Rocket scientist’s”. That’s why they get paid the big bucks!

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Ok, I yanked every bit of problematic seeming code out of the site and it looks now to be a hosting issue. Hopefully fixed later today, sorry for the inconvenience.

    I probably sold the VLOs early but I’m not greedy and days ago I thought that might turn into one of my monthly wipe outs.

    RJ – they’ve had extremely high volume call action in the 70 octs until today, people are shifting buying into the out month. If I had been around this moringi to watch I’d had been in the Novs by now but oh well.

  50. 50
    Brian08 Says:

    Bulls make money, bears make money, hogs get slaughtered…

    80% is pretty damn good from where they were a few days ago!

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Hey Bri,

    I thought so!

    The approach CITI took yesterday on VLO and SUN was one of weak pricing in the ethanol market allowing them, as better positioned users of ethanol for blending, to produce more product, which is a more in depth approach than my simple minded, “um margins are expanding via higher crack spreads and the stocks are too cheap” angle on the story but what the heck, whatever gets the stocks up, right. Since TSO is rallying hard now and they weren’t deemed as much of an ethanol glut beneficiary I stand by my simpleton’s view.

  52. 52
    Nicky Says:

    Seems from what you are saying that the rally in energy stocks is not being confirmed by the broader market. But then i seem to remember you saying that energy did not rally last week when the market did so maybe just catch up.

  53. 53
    Nicky Says:

    FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm and I would be suprised if they are’nt a market mover today.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    ERRATA: Typo in my earlier TRADE. Average cost was $1.48, the GAIN was $1.18…still 80% gainer.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    N – was #52 for me or Brian?

  56. 56
    Nicky Says:

    Google now given back over 1000 points of its early morning spike.

  57. 57
    Sambone Says:

    N – The way this market is, no matter what the minutes say (Good or bad), this market will go up. “Partying like it’s 1999”.

  58. 58
    Nicky Says:

    Z – it was just a general comment to everyone really. Broader market looks pretty tired.

  59. 59
    Nicky Says:

    I don’t disagree Samborne.

  60. 60
    calvino Says:

    Did someone paraphrase the leaping baboon? Thanks for the words of wisdom. Speaking of rocket scientists, Big Cat is makins some noises with cbm water reinjection into upper strata reservoirs. Marathon is willing to participate in this science project amazingly – seems they pulled permits on a bunch of wells and Wyoming wants to limit inspections to yearly schedule from quarterly, which Big Cat says is good for them. They don’t have options, however you could get a bunch of their shares for the price of a single contract at the money on anything we usually buy. 🙂 I know that we are going to be giving gas away from now on, however, if gas ever become a valuable commodity again, Cat could become a good one.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    TSO rumor takeout of SUN… Glad I have my November 47.50s and 50s…besides, the company is still cheap.

    It’s probably nothing but the other guys would run hard, especially the little guys if the rumor hangs on or it actually happens.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    That should read that SUN is rumored to be looking at acquiring TSO.

  63. 63
    Sambone Says:

    Fed – Loved this line “Inflation risk if dollar keeps falling , Significantly”.

  64. 64
    rammastr Says:

    It looks like the financials are looking for a FED interpreter to run in the right direction.

  65. 65
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    VMC is testing the floor at 93, let’s see if it holds.

    If it breaks below 90, you guys need to look at this stock.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    COP outpacing XOM and CVX today. miracle.

    TSO: No way it goes for less than an 11 multiple of next year’s earnings.

    ESV still in the down channel

    NBR slowly sinking lower on some pretty good volume. Bet that has another buck down in it in a weaker market.

    Thanks Q will do, congrats on the WLT, never got it but doing ok with the BTU

  67. 67
    Sambone Says:

    N – Hmmm, after reading the minutes, I don’t think these bozos have a clue of what’s ahead. Flying in the dark with no instruments, IMO.

  68. 68
    calvino Says:

    #61 that one spun my head. then read #62 . lol

  69. 69
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Z.

    JRCC again. What price make your trigger finger itch? 5.80?

    It’s pretty volatile in a sell-off. It’s kinda a “Dogs of the Dow”
    [Cockroaches of the Coal Scuttle?] pick behind BTU.

    This is the same way I got into AEM in August when I wanted a cheaper gold co.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Q – still haven’t given it a good luck, it’s thin and they are running it and I’ll catch it on the way back down…maybe.

    Really like the ANR story but I missed that one as well as I have been watching it rally from 19.

  71. 71
    calvino Says:

    11x forward earnings – that’s outrageous, like anyone knows what their wells will ever be worth one month from now. a real company like bidu prices at 150x!

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Another $0.40 on CHK and we are in full on break out mode from a 24 month base.

    Wow … look at the breakout on BTU.

    Q – VLO over 72, isn’t that your level?

    TSO up 5%

  73. 73
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN or NICKY – Is there a ROT on when a stock goes up away from a particular MA when you feel it’s getting extended (DRYS)?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    wow, I sold my DRYS two days ago and 15 points lower.

    RAM – I don’t know a rule of thumb for that

  75. 75
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Hey,

    I was just admiring seeing VLO floating over 72. I sold all but three contracts… in the green by 20% by golly.

    I’ll hold the rest in case Sunoco decides they want VLO instead of TSO before next Friday!

    DRYS… well I had over a double so no worries.

  76. 76
    zman Says:

    Q – yeah, I very rarely beat myself up over taking a profit.

    With the market trading the way it is you can get caught buying a lot of stuff that ran simply to catch it. That game will end badly unless you’re very nimble and it generally ends while you are sleeping …

  77. 77
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    VMC just bouncing and bouncing off 93.

  78. 78
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Just out of curiousity have you met “Option Dragon”, “Phil”, “Sage”, and “Happy” in person?

    It’s a strange aura of celebrity that surrounds these financial blogs.

    Q.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    No

  80. 80
    QUARRYMAN Says:

    Do you think Joe Bastardi gives autographs at weather conventions?

  81. 81
    Syrupjib.Com » Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by redjack Says:

    […] wrote an interesting post today on Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by redjackHere’s a quick […]

  82. 82
    Syrupjib.Com » Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by Sambone Says:

    […] wrote an interesting post today on Comment on Tuesday – Another Downer? by SamboneHere’s a quick […]

  83. 83
    Nicky Says:

    Ram – not as far as I know – you would have to look at other indicators.

    Broader market now looks to be heading for 1577 – 1580’s before we see the next correction. Amazing how it can suddenly be perceived as good news that we aren’t going to need a further interest rate cut. Market is ahead of itself methinks.

  84. 84
    Nicky Says:

    Note that according to Art Cashin volume is extremely light and he commented that the guys at the Fed appear to be admitting that they are not quite sure how things stand!

  85. 85
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN, NICKY – Thanks.

    ZMAN – Are you still pondering about NOV DRYS?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Ram – yeah but I hate to chase it. Odds are if you do it will make money but if I do it won’t, LOL. Seriously, I’ll wait for some Mo-Mo profit taking here. Also, I need to rerun the numbers vs it’s peers…it’s still cheap but not as cheap and on a bad day in the broader I expect it to take a hit.

  87. 87
    Sambone Says:

    Z – What’s up with #82?

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    S – Tupp was getting blocked by my spam blocker so I turned it off. These kind of guys then get in.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    I may regret it but I’m holding all my TSO calls through tomorrow and probably half of them longer.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    CHK hit 37

  91. 91
    scoop006 Says:

    Z, RE # 89 ALL THE BEST, BUT ISN’T THE PRUDENT MOVE TO SELL HALF NOW CONSIDERING THE COST BASIS? JUST TRYING TO DEVELOP AND LEARN SOUND SELLING STRATERGIES.

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Scoop – that would be the most prudent course if they were October’s for sure. It’s more of a touch and feel thing but I was just looking at them and the fundamentals for which I just bought them are still showing improvement. I may get nipped on it but I like the way they are closing near HOD. I’ll have a crack spread chart with WC margins up in the morning post but its improvement accelerated las tweek. Its just a judgement call on my part and maybe not a good one. Still, they are Novies

  93. 93
    scoop006 Says:

    Z, STUPID ME. I THOUGHT THEY WERE OCT.’S
    CAN YOU ADDRESS SELLING STRATERGY FOR RIG
    OCT.$110.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    Scoop – Re RIG – Those are Octobers and I had hoped for a better day today. In a word, quickly. In a phrase: at a moment’s notice.

    Simply put I think they should be higher. I’m obviously missing something here. Maybe it’s the Jackups and semisubs markets affecting the future TransGlobal or whatever it is they will call it. I think at some point something clicks and this thing runs. The problem is that may be anytime during the 4Q. So you may see me dump the 115 losers on one more slightly positive day along with the 110 and take something in a December just so I don’t have to sweat it. Same goes for the ESV on the put side.

  95. 95
    calvino Says:

    The coal mystery is solved: Stifel upgraded Massy today!

  96. 96
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- thanks. Novies?

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Cal – that was in the analyst watch, plus MEE is the most lawsuit encumbered coal out there and will eventually pay dearly for it…but that’s just my opinion…I could be wrong.

    Novies = novembers

  98. 98
    TTupp Says:

    wow im an idiot, bought drys 120’s in the am and got impatient and sold at 1:30, and could have reaped another 150% (THE CONTRACT WAS UP 400% ON THE DAY!!!)

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    T – profits like that are a problem to have!

  100. 100
    zman Says:

    T – I detest mo-mo stocks. Just when you convince yourself it’s not really 1999 and that it just feels like 1999 then it becomes 1999. At least in the case of this particular little beasty, it’s dirt cheap. Of course, that’s based on dry bulk shipping rates that look, well, like 1999.

  101. 101
    TTupp Says:

    hhahaha

    the gap today looked like an exhaustion gap, ie pros unloading (remember my call on the measured gap @85 Z?, and that usually measures half way… well this looks picture perfect to me- i wouldent be surprised if we were back 10% the there way! and ill be there with put… you with me Z>?

  102. 102
    TTupp Says:

    where do you get your consensus earnings info or equities? first call? i wen to the site and cant get anything….

  103. 103
    Nicky Says:

    Hi T-Tupp – my nerves now how to live through another Grand Prix in two weeks -what a race for Hamilton to beach it on!!!!!

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    yes, first call…I’ve got to step out who do you need and I’ll put in a comment in a bit?

  105. 105
    TTupp Says:

    can i look up things on my own or do you need a subscription?

  106. 106
    zman Says:

    I think you can get eps from several sources for free including yahoo finance.

    I have a subscription to First Call for all the details and also CFPS, EBITDA etc…

  107. 107
    TTupp Says:

    is it expensive/ worth it?

  108. 108
    zman Says:

    $300 to $1000 depending on the level of detail for a non-institutional license

  109. 109
    zman Says:

    Tupp – I had to turn the spam filter back on…can’t be selling Paris Hilton tapes on here. I will have a new one by the weekend. If it blocks you it will at least give you a chance to prove you are a human by entering those groovy letters.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Is anybody still around? Need to know if the site is constantly refreshing from your end. Thanks.

  111. 111
    calvino Says:

    yep

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    is it still auto refreshing for you or does it stop?

  113. 113
    rammastr Says:

    Automatic vs. manual refresh?

  114. 114
    zman Says:

    Some people were having a problem with the site just sitting there and constantly spinning or refreshing by itself. I think I got it fixed but wanted to see if it was still hour glassing or the like for anyone out there.

  115. 115
    rammastr Says:

    Oh. It works fine.

  116. 116
    zman Says:

    Thanks Ram

  117. 117
    calvino Says:

    i had to refresh this time. seems that it was working on auto before

  118. 118
    zman Says:

    Yeah, it was working on auto by accident which eats memory and is annoying. Thanks for the help.

  119. 119
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – Do you see where CVX says their 3rd qtr will be down because of poor refining margins?

  120. 120
    rammastr Says:

    Intuitively, it makes sense that the refiners margins are less. I pay less for gasoline now and the raw material was at its highest in the 3rd qtr.

  121. 121
    zman Says:

    RAM – Not until you pointed it out. They look pretty bad vs say COP who said much the same thing the other day. Should not be a shock but you can see the stock got dinged after the close. They also had lower throughput on top of lower margins and their margins truly did stink based on July/Aug.; again its in the rear view mirror but it will likely whack them, XOM and the refining group at least in the morning. May or may not effect the independents who have yet to “warn”.

  122. 122
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- Pete Najarian mentioned call volume in BHI NOV.100 C’S 19,000 contracts &
    HAL NOV. $42.50C’S 17,000 contracts.
    Any thoughts?

  123. 123
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – Can you always presume it is “smart” money?

  124. 124
    zman Says:

    Scoop –

    HAL deserves a higher multiple but that would be a heck of a run. Maybe it’s some Saudi Prince playing with silly money now that HAL is in the region.

    BHI could easily warn. Maybe someone thinks it gets bought but the line of work it’s in puts in prime territory for a warning in the current environment.

    RAM – given the size, they certainly think they know something. On the HAL I saw one trade over 1000 contracts and the rest looked like retail, 1 to 10 to 100 at a time. Could be a hedgie trying to start a rumor …doesn’t cost a lot $7,000 in this case and then hit the message board and get retail on board and then try to really hit the stock the next day with some early orders. Cramer could probably advise better on this, LOL.

  125. 125
    rammastr Says:

    Thanks and thanks.

  126. 126
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- that’s alot of retail contracts(16,000) considering there were 7100 outstanding prior to today’s action; don’t you think?

  127. 127
    zman Says:

    Scoop-

    Yes but I’m not saying the early stuff was, it looked like there was a lot of follow on stuff and it’s a 70 cent well OOTM contract which people seem to enjoy.

    I think its a rumor spreading hedge and I don’t know how much they took followed by lemmings or luckies (take your pick depending on what happens). Lots of people buy stocks based on option activity so if you can jack that and then get it noticed by a guy like Pete then you will have more stock buyers tomorrow.

    If they really think the stock is going to go $4 points higher (breakeven plus a nice return) you’d be better off buying a deep in the money option (purchasing disproportionately fewer contracts to get the leverage you want). Especially after a run like the one it’s just had.

    I’ll put the HAL Nov 37.50 calls on the watch board along with the 42.50s and we’ll see who’s better off in three weeks. All I’m saying is that it’s extremely risky that close ahead when you have to get another 10% move on the common on top of the 22% straight up move from the August 20 low.

    You know I like the stock and I’ve been out since around 37 (just before September expiry) and am waiting on a pull back. I’m just saying it smells funny to me. If someone is making bigger bets on calls prior to a deal that’s different deal although there are some pretty smart people who look for patterns in that kind of thing and soon or later those call buyers will be singing like Martha S.

  128. 128
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- Thank you very much for the explanation and education.

  129. 129
    zman Says:

    S – now that you’ve said that I’m sure it will be taken out in the morning! LOL!

  130. 130
    scoop006 Says:

    ZMAN, RE RIG OCT 110 Make any sense to roll over to NOV. 115.?

  131. 131
    zman Says:

    Definitely but I’m for a solid gain off the 110 level. I may go ahead and add the Nov 115 and let the 110 run (if it can) a little more before exit. Only had it a day now.

  132. 132
    scoop006 Says:

    Z_ Wed. Wall St. Journal article states the catalyst for buying activity in BHI & HAL might be reports that Venezuela’s
    state oil co =PdVSA might be in talks with these or other co’s to form a joint ventures due to a global shortage of rigs.
    The article can be found on page C5.
    I think someone had today’s paper yesterday

  133. 133
    zman Says:

    Scoop – that’s a good thought and I have seen a couple of stories about PDVsa increasing the ranks over the last two weeks. I wouldn’t want to work for them but HAL may not care and it is less risky than it would be if you had reserves under their ground.

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