TGIF! Gas Review, A Tale of a Few Drillers, etc…

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Brief post for a low interest day...everybody have a safe and happy holiday!

Guilt By Association Watch: ESV, a shallow water operator warned about 3Q earnings yesterday and half the drillers get taken out and skinned. A few differences:

  • (ESV) drills in the shallow water (generally < 1,000 feet) and geographically on the GOMEX Shelf using Jack-Up rigs.
  • (RIG) generally drills in water depths >1,000 feet using a variety of drillships and semisubmersibles and geographically it is more diversified in the various deepwater hotspots around the globe, not just in the long helicopter trip areas of the GOMEX.
  • (ESV)'s clients are targeting smaller reserve pools which don't take as much planning to drill nor to develop if they're successful. These prospects cost less but are generally not the big swings for the fences that you read about on the front page from time to time. Don't get me, wrong many a fine company has made plenty of hay and drilled one well company makers on the Shelf but activity there is on a slow decline.
  • (RIG)'s clients are drilling after the really big game (100 million barrels and up reserve size) or smaller satellites to production hubs in really deep water that require long range planning. The go / no go process on these is lengthy and is generally unaffected by short term swings in prices.

This is not a big deal as so far it's just one day of non-sense in a thinly traded pre-holiday market  but if it happens again today I'll be in line near the close (or as close to where I can call a reasonable intraday bottom as possible) to take an extra piece for a trade. (RIG) is cheap. Everybody is talking $14 to $15 for 2009 numbers which would yield a 7 multiple on a company that's expected to double earnings over a two year period! That's what I call cheap. The same worries stressing (ESV) simply don't apply here. (DO)'s on my radar as well. 

A Quick Look At A Few Offshore Driller Multiples


Natural Gas Review. 43 Bcf injection. In line with consensus, a bit heavy to my number. Last week I thought the number would be bigger so on average of the two 30 puts in line with my expected trend.

Week Ended August 24, 2007: 43 Bcf Injection.

Gas Inventories Are Now 12% Above The Five Year Average (down from 13% last week), and 2% Above Last Year's Record Levels.

  • Storage as of August 24, 2007: 2,969 Bcf
  • Max storage for this week in history: 2,905 Bcf (2006).
  • We are now 2% (64 Bcf) higher than year ago levels, down from a 4% surplus three weeks ago.
  • We remain 12% (315 Bcf) above the 5 year average which includes 2006's record levels (see third chart below).

Looking Ahead: 3.5 Tcf here we come. This is old news.




As you can see in the table, average injections from now through the end of the traditional injection season get us to "high" levels of storage. Even the minimum level of injections, which occured last year and is therefore in both the 3 and 10 year scenarios gets us to a lofty 3.5 Tcf which by historic standards is more than "full". The  near record short interest on the part of the non-commercials will be supportive of prices but apparently only once covering is induced by either sharply lower injections or a storm. Where we are now:



Gas prices yawned at the number, got excited about some clouds and rain over the Atlantic and closed up a nickel to $5.635.

Tropics Watch: Active African Wave Train. That's Accuweather's somewhat quirky way of saying things are still active and getting busier in the tropics. 94 L, central Atlantic (55w, 10n) looks ominous and its in the area that spawned Dean. For a trade I like gas through the weekend as this one good odds of of getting named while trading is closed but won't be far enough West to rule it in or out as a threat. I may take a little near the money (SWN), (KWK), (APC), (CHK), or (EOG) depending on the open. Also still got my eye on adding a third wedge of (TSO) as refiner whose out of harms way (geographically) but has been taking it on the chin a bit too much of late. I think it was Stephen who first voiced gas long for the weekend on the site 2 days ago but I'm a bit slow to react sometimes and this market hasn't exactly allowed a big run in any of these stocks yet.

Tesoro Watch: Here's a good story on the currently mellow California gasoline price market. Although margins are off recent lows sentiment on the West Coast is that storage is ample. Gas prices in Ca are currently only 3 to 4 cents above the national average which is truly rare (only 4 times this decade). When I see numbers like that I think, "time for a reversal, somethings gotta break somewhere, deferred maintenance will become "un-deferred", etc. Estimates for 3Q have come down a little here with the big slide in cracks but that's rear view mirror investing. This smells like an opportunity for a recovery since the stock has come off disproportionately more and their fundamental story continues to improve (return on about any metric you like, debt reduction, competitive position...take your pick).

Speaking Of Maintenance Becoming "Un-Deferred" Watch: A Reuters survey found that there will be an unusually high incidence of maintenance among Midwest refiners in September. Reuters indicated that many Midwest refiners have not been offline for maintenance since Katrina. EIA also noted that the regional tightness has already caused the EPA to grant a temporary waver for North Dakota to import non spec gasoline from Canada.


Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: I'll add in comments before the open.

CATS Watch: BP is slowly bringing the CATS system back on line in the North Sea. Expect normal operations by mid September.  Probably ends the reprieve UK gas prices have been getting. Maybe you guys will get a real winter over there.

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Have a great weekend. The wrap will be the first private site post.

Best Re,

141 Responses to “TGIF! Gas Review, A Tale of a Few Drillers, etc…”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    They’re sending in the hurricane hunter planes this afternoon.


  2. 2
    zman Says:



  3. 3
    Stephen Says:


  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks Stephen

    Friedman Billings dropped coverage of slew of E&Ps due to a “reallocation of resources at FBR”

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    SWN breaking back out to 3 day highs…the others on this mornings list of potential trades for a stormy holiday ran out of the gate pretty hard.

    APC and EOG off the list from today’s post are the most liquid, hardest charging right now for options.

    OII continues to break out.

    RIG recovery from yesterday’s ESV slide nearly complete.

    HAL continues to recover, getting back towards $35.

    OIH looks like it wants to make a run on 180. Like I said on Tuesday, this index looked the strongest in energy land.

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Approaches $74 On New Storm Concerns

    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude rises towards $74/bbl, buoyed by heightened concerns that a new tropical storm could form in the Atlantic, worries about the health of U.S. equity markets and market volatility in the run-up to the expiration of September petroleum product contracts on Fri afternoon. Oct Nymex crude +48c at $73.84/bbl. Sep reformulated gasoline blendstock +9 pts at $2.0810/gal. Oct ICE Brent +48c at $72.38/bbl (roshanak.taghavi@dowjones.com)

    Reported earlier:
    LONDON — Crude oil futures edged higher in London Friday morning as the market focused on the development of a tropical wave in the Atlantic, tightening inventory levels and further signs of strength for the global equity markets.

    Traders said these factors should prompt further upside later in the session as investors protect positions ahead of the long weekend holiday in the U.S.

    “There’s a good chance we’ll see a push higher into the close because people won’t want to be going home short given we have this tropical wave developing in the Atlantic,” said a broker in London. “Look for $75 a barrel on WTI.”

    At 1110 GMT, the front-month October Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up 42c at $72.32 a barrel.

    The front-month October contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $0.39 higher at $73.75 a barrel.

    ICE’s gasoil contract for September delivery was up $2.75 at $639.25 a metric ton, while Nymex RBOB gasoline for September delivery was down 1 points at 208.00 cents a gallon.

    The weather system catching traders’ attention is “a well-organized area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave” centered about 300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning. A tropical depression could form later Friday, it said.

    While in the early stages of development, the chances of the storm developing into a Hurricane and heading for key oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico is proving enough to make the market sit up and listen.

    The last Hurricane of the current season, Dean, failed to cause significant damage to installations in its path through the south of the Gulf of Mexico but the concentration of refineries on U.S. coast remain vulnerable.

    The sensitivity of the oil markets is likely to be more apparent this as this year’s hurricane season wears on given the fact heating oil inventories in the U.S. are low going into the winter demand period.

    And even the gasoline market, where the peak demand season is coming to an end and inventories have been sharply eroded over recent weeks, remains tight and sensitive to any further supply disruptions.

    In the short term, attention Friday will be focused on the expiry of the September gasoline and heating oil contracts on Nymex, which is likely to see volatility for both as investors attempt to square positions.

    From a longer-term basis, the health of the global economy remains key.

    Recent strength across global equity markets has restored some confidence and all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech to the annual central bank symposium later Friday for signs that he is preparing to cut interest rates near term to support the U.S. economy.

    But a shift to a less riskier investment approach could still weigh on the oil complex.

    “Perhaps the biggest concern to the downside will be in the short term if we see a broad selloff in the coming weeks as a result of the subprime mess heightening risk aversion,” said analyst Michael Davies at Sucden in London.

    Countering this is the fact the current structure of both Brent and WTI is attractive to investment from speculators, in particular funds.

    “The forward curves for both oils are in steep backwardation, which makes the oil derivatives look attractive, as the 1-year futures lay around 5.5% below the current contract,” said Peter Fertig of Commerzbank.

    A backwardated market means investors who want to role positions forward ahead of expiry can pick up a profit, in the form of the spread, in the process. A market in contango is less attractive to longer-term investors as they have to pay the spread to roll positions forward.

    —By David Elliott, Dow Jones Newswires

  7. 7
    scoop006 Says:

    Check out volume in VLO Sept. $70 Calls

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Thanks Scoop,

    >5000. That fits pretty nicely with the story about a sharp expected decline in mid west refining capacity during September. Put / Call is about 1 to 3 now.

    Check out the rally in cheap old SUN…

  9. 9
    Alok Says:

    SWN shaping up nicely today. up more than 4%

  10. 10
    J Says:

    SU cranking as well

  11. 11
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Rises Above $74 On Storm Concern, Stocks


    NEW YORK — Crude oil futures rose above $74 a barrel Friday on heightened concerns that a new tropical storm could be developing in the Atlantic Ocean and an upsurge in U.S. equities.

    The front-month October light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 86 cents, or 1.2%, at $74.22 a barrel. October Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was up 93 cents at $72.83 a barrel.

    Traders were paying extra attention Friday to four low pressure systems that have developed in the Atlantic basin, which could develop into a strong storm or hurricane. Atlantic hurricanes have the potential to enter the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and wreak havoc with energy installations there.

    The National Hurricane Center reported on its website Friday morning that a low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is centered about 300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands and is moving westward at about 15mph.

    This system bears close watching, said Jim Rouiller, Senior Energy Meteorologist at Planalytics. I suspect that the hurricane hunters who fly out later today to investigate the system will find a depression, he said.

    Rouiller added, however, that “it is too early to speculate on the Gulf.”

    Crude oil futures were also buoyed Friday by a surge in U.S. equity markets, as traders and analysts await key speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President Bush. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq were all recently higher.

    Petroleum futures traders have been paying particular attention to economic indexes in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consumer, because these data are often seen as key indicators of energy demand.

    Bernanke is set to speak Friday to the annual Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., where he is expected to discuss housing and monetary policy in the wake of the sub-prime crisis of the last few weeks. Analysts are widely expecting Bernanke’s comments to be positive for the underlying economy and supportive of consumer demand.

    “There seems to be this growing momentum on Wall Street that Bernanke is going to throw some sort of a bone to people with this speech in Wyoming,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. “My expectation is that we’re seeing good buying here based on momentum from anticipation of the speech.”

    President Bush is also scheduled to speak Friday morning about ways his administration will respond to the subprime-mortgage crisis, and is expected to outline a series of policy changes and recommendations to help borrowers avoid default.

    Nymex September reformulated-gasoline blendstock was up 1.03 cents, or 0.5%, at $2.0904 a gallon. September heating oil was up 2.46 cents, or 1.2%, at $2.0530 a gallon.

    Added to this is the expiration of the September petroleum product contracts on Friday, which is widely expected to add to volatility.

    Crude oil and gasoline futures have been extremely volatile since Wednesday, when the U.S. Department of Energy reported gasoline inventories fell by a larger-than-expected 3.6 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 24. U.S. gasoline stocks now cover just 20 days of demand, the lowest level on record, according to the DOE’s Energy Information Administration.

    Expectations that gasoline supplies will tighten even more during the U.S. Labor Day holiday, when many Americans hit the road to attend celebrations and take vacations, has also added to traders’ concerns.

    Developments in the gasoline market have therefore had a major influence on crude oil prices.

    “We are maintaining a view that any strength in the crude oil or heating oil going forward will be driven almost entirely by a tight gasoline market,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. in a research note. “We are still not ruling out a strong expiration today as the combination of near record low gasoline supply cover and a thin holiday trade could provide a recipe for a volatile session as today’s trade proceeds.”

    —By Roshanak Taghavi, Dow Jones Newswires

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    SWN – it’s about time, eh?
    SU = oil over $74

    DO, NOV, RIG on fire today…OIH within a stone’s throw of 180. RIG has taken back all of yesterday’s losses plus some.

    OII making me smile.

    PTR – why did I not pull the trigger on that one, anyone? Same for PBR

    E&P backing off a bit with gas which looked disappointed with latest weather report. Thinking of adding to my APC 50s and CHK calls. NFX is actually down. hmmm.

  13. 13
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Can you please explain the stratergy beind today’s trading in XTO Jan 2008
    $45&$50P’s and$65Call’s

  14. 14
    zman Says:


    I’d just be guessing since I’m not the one doing it! It looks like someone is taking two big bets to the downside and writing calls against half to reduce cost.

  15. 15
    drdavis124 Says:

    Found a sleeper SPN– SUPERIOR ENERGY SERVICES. Sent of few hours on D.D. & looks super. The only svc company that provids cradle to grave svc: from siezmic to enhanced recovery to shutin. They seem to look for sectors that have less competition. MKT cap $3B a take-out candidate. Would appriceate your imput if you know SPN.


  16. 16
    Fred Says:

    Someone’s making a big bet to the downside. I don’t know what to make of it or Ben’s/Bush’s bailouts.

  17. 17
    Fred Says:

    Sorry better Link:


  18. 18
    scoop006 Says:

    RE 13&14 if your spending $840K on puts is receiving $115K selling calls to reduce the entry price of the puts meaningful?

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    RIG back to 105. DO same.

    DR D: You might say the only one except for HAL and a couple of others. I know them by reputation (good), not particularly up on the story of late but the trends should be positive…I still like HAL better based on valuation, remaking of the company still unfolding, solid business overseas increasing, and that big fat buyback. Plus it’s a much more liquid name which in this market flight to liquidity I feel safer in. SPN could indeed be a takeout…many service stocks are the repeated target of such rumors but that’s a hard game to play with options unless the rumor is active. If you’re talking from a stock perspective it may be more interesting.

    My Thomson One crashed just as I went to run some comps on my other box and I have to reboot…will like at more in depth a little later.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Scoop – yes. That’s a nice cost basic reduction. They must feel pretty secure given the current environment and the current vs strike on those calls. They’re thinking it’s free $ and they may be right. They may also be playing this for a quick trade over the weekend betting that 94L dematerializes and gas cracks lower on Tuesday. Just my two or three cents.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Fred – Thanks …great article (#17). Everyone should read that. I’m betting he’s right on the China dumping angle. OPEC has been ditching dollars for awhile and there has been increasing talk of moving the barrel from $ denom to Euro denom. It’s not secret large players in OPEC are long the money centers, real estate, and in hedgue funds in a big way. Weak dollar not completely offsetting the rally in crude price for them and as they take in and then drop dollars to support crude price it makes others, like China consider doing the same. Scary.

  22. 22
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – Are you thinking of covering anything before the weekend? Some of the premiums will shrink?

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Ram – stop reading my mind, just combing through for dead wood that’s popped and weighing now whether it’s worth it or not. Specifically NFX and SWN. I’m torn because those positions have been slammed but if we get the storm they pop nicely. No storm and that’s another 3 days. It’s not like I’m unexposed with the APC but still, since I was dumb enough not to listen to my own thoughts on stops and got whacked by sub prime (and to a lesser extent) gas …well…I’m still thinking about it.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    If you any of you newly signed up folks have trouble with passwords please let us know. We can reset yours for you if needed and email it to you.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Check out the sweet move on RIG relative to ESV

    RIG: up $3.50
    EVS: up $0.06

    I love it when I get to say I told you so.

  26. 26
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Above $74 On Stocks, Storm Jitters

    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude oil rises back above $74/bbl on the back of higher US stocks and fears that an Atlantic storm system could develop into a tropical storm headed for the US Gulf. Crude pared gains, following stocks, after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke didn’t commit to future rate cuts in a speech in Wyoming. Crude traders eyeing a storm system 250 miles east of the Windward Islands that forecasters say could develop into a tropical storm. Oct crude +73c at $74.09/bbl after hitting a high of $74.44. Sep reformulated gasoline blendstock -2.76c at $2.0525/gal. Oct ICE Brent +85c at $72.75/bbl (roshanak.taghavi@dowjones.com)

  27. 27
    rammastr Says:

    It seems traders left at lunch time and stocks are drifting lower.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    agreed Ram

  29. 29
    sane Says:

    afternoon all

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Sane – what are doing hanging around the office this late. Figured you were on a lake somewhere!

  31. 31
    sane Says:

    Last minute meetings today.
    The lake is tomorrow. 🙂

  32. 32
    Sambone Says:

    What I’m watching is CFC. With the bullish news out today from Ben and Bush, it opened at $20.70, up $1.06 from yesterday’s close. Looks to me like a Intraday reversal today, with a current quote of $19.87. We’ll see. And yes Z, I’m still here to tha close.

  33. 33
    tom2oc Says:

    Hey Z, last day before you turn pro!



  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Sambone – what are juniors for if not to man the phones on days like today?

    Thanks Tom!!!

  35. 35
    Sambone Says:

    They are all gone. Office mostly empty.

  36. 36
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – Are you still thinking about taking some calls off the table? How are the storms brewing?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    I think I’m sitting pat on those I’ve got that are circling the bowl. My in the money’s are staying for sure.

    Feeling a bit vindicated on that TSO call now.

  38. 38
    bill fraser Says:

    The way i read the weather charts is, if a storm forms ,it will traverse westerly into Mexico and not into the Gulf.

    Maybe others have figured that out as NG is down 20 cents today

  39. 39
    jimbo Says:

    yo Zman….

    Congratulations on your privitization!

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Bill…that looks like what they’re thinking right now at least. Interesting that the gassy E&Ps are up at or near levels they ran to this morning. If you’re right they could fall back as much and more on the open Tuesday.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    jimbo – Thanks! I wish I could say it were a painless transformation (paypal) but otherwise it’s going pretty well. We’ll be here all weekend fielding questions so feel free to ask away.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    For whoever, is still around and if you have the inclination why not try out your new account by logging in? I’m here now, bored and looking to be helpful 🙂

  43. 43
    Sambone Says:

    Tell me how again

  44. 44
    sane Says:

    Login works ok for me.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    First check to see if you’re logged in. When you look at the little screen you type comments in it’ll say

    Logged in as Sambone. Logout>>

    If it says that you’re logged in.

    If not click login, then enter username and password.

  46. 46
    rammastr Says:

    Login cool. How much is RIG a Momentum play versus an energy play?

  47. 47
    zman Says:


    When you set up your paypal account it is important that you not underestimate the size of your average paypal payment. If you tell them it’ll be $100 and your first payment out of the gate is for $599 the funds are likely to be held and they will make both of us jump through hoops to sort it out at which point I’d rather just get a check. Save the hassle and give them a bigger number for your average payment size so we can try and avoid this. Thanks.

  48. 48
    Sambone Says:

    Done, saids that I can logoff. Went to Login page, put my name and password, went to my profile, then I clicked view site, and here I is!

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Ram – It’s a value play. 7x 2009 earnings (mid range of a consensus that is being spoken everywhere but on paper as $14 to $15) with EPS up 100% from 2007 to 2009. Sure, it’s got some mo-mo money in it but less than it did two months ago when the sector could do no wrong. As to being an energy play, they’re at the heart of the big debate regarding inability of the big boys to grow reserves/production.

  50. 50
    Sambone Says:

    By the way, paypal is a hassle.

  51. 51
    zman Says:


    agreed…now imagine it from my point of view. I’ve been on the phone with them 4 times today. They tell me they’re just looking out for me.

  52. 52
    rammastr Says:

    Looking out for you?! They were annoying to me!!

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Thanks for going through it! They’ve cost me a couple of sign ups at least so far. Too much hassle. Those guys are sending checks. Once it works it should be fine going forward but man, oh man the birthing process has been less than enjoyable.

  54. 54
    Sambone Says:

    LOL, As an old buddy once said to me, when you play with the “Big boys”, you pay the price.

  55. 55
    rammastr Says:

    Oh! Now I understand!

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    RIG absolutely on fire now. TSO up $2, VLO moving nicely. Volumes not as low as I would have thought today in energy. Nice way to close the week.

  57. 57
    T-Tupp Says:

    dr davis,

    your posts look like computer generated spam messages that i get in the email account i reserve for things i know will lead to junk mail aftr giving out my email adrress on the net. t

    things like “here’s a sleeper!” lol

  58. 58
    Sambone Says:

    Have a good three day, and I’ll talk at ya on Tuesday.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    T – cranky much?

    S – Have a great one!

  60. 60
    T-Tupp Says:

    lol i took over frm where you left off earlier in the week hahha

  61. 61
    rammastr Says:

    ZMAN – Spoke too soon. I will stay as well. I hope the take down in the final 10 min’s isn’t a “sign”.

  62. 62
    rammastr Says:

    NUTS! RIG did not stay above it’s 50dma around 105.5.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    I think it’s a sign that the junior traders got told to take some profits and set stops just in case by the big boys already tooling around in the Hamptons.

    It’s definitely beer thirty. If you need me I’ll be on my blackberry,

    If you don’t need me Have a GREAT weekend and I’ll see most of you on the other side!


  64. 64
    rammastr Says:

    See ya. Have a nice one. Vino and stoggie time!

  65. 65
    byfrazier Says:

    Hey Z,

    I’m a new subscriber. I’ve been hanging around WW and PSW for a very profitable few weeks.

    I’ve been a Joe Bastardi blog follower for years on Accuweather Pro. “Quirky’ ain’t in it! But, he’s amazingly accurate.

    NOW my question: What do you know about IO? This little oil services co. is up about 6% for the week and it doesn’t seem to move like this very often, does it?

    Looking forward to following the discussion this week.


  66. 66
    Cap Says:

    Z – any thoughts on how Felix plays tomorrow ? Thx.

  67. 67
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