28
Aug

Tuesday Morning

Print Friendly

Subscription Watch: The email with detailed instructions regarding site membership sign up procedures went out Sunday evening. Those instructions can also be accessed here and subscription rates can be viewed here. This site goes private at week's end.

Oil and Gas Prices: Up slightly in early trading. Oil is trying to move back over $72. For it's part natural gas is trying to recover the  $0.14 it lost in yesterday's session on the fear of a new tropical wave that has formed in roughly the same area from which Hurricane Dean was spawned about three weeks ago. We'll see if anybody notices as most people with any sense are on vacation this week.

OPEC Watch: From the secretary-general Abdullah al-Badri:

"The market at this time is very well supplied. Stocks are at about five years’ average, there is no shortage of crude at all in the market at this time...This is up to the ministers to decide in September," he said. "So I think the picture will be clearer by December, when we meet in December." ~ from Upstream.

Comment:  Take that comment into account along with the fact that OPEC is still forecasting global economic growth of 5% in both 2007 AND 2008 and you can kiss any hope of an official hike in current quota levels.

RBOB Bounce. The September contract jumped $0.0579 to land at $2.0393, easily bouncing back through what many thought to be resistance at $2 and closing at a three week high. This 3% gain easily outpaced a follow on rally of 1% in October crude which rallied $0.88 to close at $71.97.

  • The rally came about as a result of that Pascagoula half shut in mentioned in yesterday's post and rumors that (CVX), the refinery's operator had canceled a shipment of Venezuelan crude.
  • Citgo was also rumored to be having a problem at a Corpus Christi refinery.
  • Planned maintenance at a (MUR) site in Superior, Wisconsin (but only a small portion of the sites total capacity) and a snafu at a (VLO) operated coker at Port Arthur  added fuel to the fire so to speak later in the session.
In what's been a pattern of late, early direction in stock price became exaggerated with market moves later in the session. Today's victim: (TSO) which started the morning of weakly and failed to recover despite the rally over $2 in RBOB which would have sent traders skipping for joy just week's ago. If it opens weak today I will double down there.

Early Read On Oil Inventories: (from the Reuters Survey) 

  • Crude - expected DOWN 0.6 million barrels. Like they have a clue.
  • Gasoline -  expected DOWN 1.3 million barrels. I'd also add that the Bloomberg survey of analysts is expecting a bigger drawdown on the order of 2.3 million barrels. Dow Jones' survey splits the difference call for a 1.8 million barrel gasoline stock drop.
  • Distillate - expected UP 1.0 million barrels. 

 

Natural Gas Imports Watch: Imports to the U.S. rang in at 12.64 Bcfgpd, retreating near 1.2 Bcfgpd from the weekly levels in 2007 or for that matter on record. The drop was entirely attributable to LNG.

  • LNG - 2.44 Bcfgpd, down from 3.8 Bcfgpd last week but still up nicely from year ago levels of 1.7.
  • Pipeline Imports -10.2 Bcfgpd, up another 0.2 Bcfgpd which is strange since most analysts and governmental bodies on both sides of the U.S. / Canadian border thought 2007 would be the year of the empty (well half empty) pipeline. Guess that's what I get for listening to analysts. TransCanada never talked up the whole "imports are going to fall off a cliff" story and you'd think they would know. Everybody just assumed they were biased...not right.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (OII) buy to hold at Stanford Research.

This presentation from a refinery tour this week at (VLO) will give you a good primer on refining.

(PQ) Expands Fayetteville Shale Position. Petroquest says it has increased it's acreage in the play to over 17,000 acres, most of which it acquired in the last two months and apparently in the core of the play. This is an interesting little fish in the E&P pond as they're ramping activity in two of the gas world's hottest new U.S. plays, the Fayetteville and the Woodford. They also strongly hinted at an MLP or other form of monetization of their Woodford gas gathering assets. 

65 Responses to “Tuesday Morning”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Remains Steady Around $72

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    From Market Talk:
    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude rises above $72/bbl, with mild support from expectations of crude oil and gasoline draws in Wed’s EIA report. A low level of action in European trading is also keeping crude-oil prices steady. “It doesn’t look like we’re going to see prices open with dramatic changes this morning,” says Peter Beutel of Cameron Hanover. “We had a bank holiday yesterday in London and it looks like European traders are figuring out this morning which way to go next.” Oct Nymex crude +$2c at $71.99/bbl after rising as high as $72.25 in overnight electronic trade. Sep Nymex benchmark gasoline -58 pts at $2.0335/gal. Oct ICE Brent -13c at $70.82/bbl. (roshanak.taghavi@dowjones.com)

    Reported Earlier:
    LONDON — Crude oil futures edged higher in London Tuesday morning on the back of recent gains for the products market and the prospect of a further tightening in U.S. inventory levels.

    While a slight fall in European equities has weighed on sentiment the oil complex has refocused on its own fundamentals and could build on recent gains, traders said.

    “In reality prices should be falling but…U.S. product expiry this week along with a predicted set of draws in tomorrow’s (Wednesday’s) U.S. stock data seem to be holding the market up,” said Rob Laughlin, senior broker at MF Global in London.

    At 1119 GMT, the front-month October Brent contract on London’s ICE futures exchange was up 5 cents at $70.99 a barrel.

    The front-month October contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading $0.20 higher at $72.12 a barrel.

    ICE’s gasoil contract for September delivery was up $12.75 at $629.75 a metric ton, while Nymex RBOB gasoline for September delivery was down 25 points at 203.68 cents a gallon.

    The approach of the expiry for the nearby September contracts on Nymex heating oil and gasoline on Friday is said to be underpinning the market for both and that in turn is lending support to crude.

    “RBOB is making strong gains with short covering in front of Friday’s expiry and its widening backwardation is pulling the WTI backwardation higher with it,” said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix.

    A number of refinery outages in the U.S. are also continuing to underpin product prices, particularly for gasoline where the market has moved into a steep backwardation, where the nearby contract trades at a higher price than the deferred.

    Latest news from Chevron could ease gasoline supply concerns.

    The company said refining units at its Mississippi refinery that were shut when the crude unit suffered a fire on Aug. 16 have returned to service, according to a person familiar with the operations but the 150,000 barrel-a-day crude unit remains down.

    In its most recent statement about Pascagoula, the company said Friday it expected to cancel or reroute some crude oil shipments to the refinery as a result of the downtime.

    But it’s the product markets that will continue to lead crude.

    “Near term, refining looks in control with the net impact of fall maintenance/declining demand critical to the near-term direction of crude,” says Doug Leggate of Citigroup.

    Both gasoline and crude are also taking support from expectations for further draws in U.S. inventories in Wednesday’s weekly report from the Department of Energy.

    Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected crude stocks to fall by 0.8 million barrels while gasoline stocks are seen falling by 1.8 million barrels.

    Although the peak gasoline demand period is coming to an end there are expectations of a ramp up in buying ahead of the U.S. Labor Day holiday and that, combined with another fall in inventories, could prompt another rally for gasoline futures, traders said.

    —By David Elliott, Dow Jones Newswires

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks – Sambone

    Sounds about right although I think he botched the explanation of the Pascagoula refinery as the big part of it, that provided the boost for gasoline, is still down and he makes it sound like it’s ok but this minor 150,000 bpd part is down…that’s half the party pal!

    How come you’re not on vacation this week like everybody else?

  3. 3
    Sambone Says:

    I took yesterday off. Got to make a living, ya know.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Re living = regrettable but true. You still in the “sky is falling…or soon to fall” camp? Even OPEC is talking up sub prime these days although they’re using it as a means to say, “hey, we’re not certain of long term demand…so we’re not going to do anything at the September meeting but sip tea and eat green almonds”

  5. 5
    Sambone Says:

    Yep, Cash is king mode. Don’t like the numbers. The bulls are talking about low P/E’s, etc. for the market to take off. My read is that we’ll see lower earnings going forward. If so, the street will bring down the earnings forcasts, and then you know what happens. Waiting until Sept/Oct/Nov to reenter the Energy patch. Own SJH and SKF for my hedges at the moment.

  6. 6
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Remains Below $72

    By ROSHANAK TAGHAVI
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude-oil futures fell Tuesday and remained below $72 on the back of low European trading activity and refinery restarts in Texas and Mississippi.

    “It doesn’t look like we’re going to see prices open with dramatic changes this morning,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. “We had a bank holiday yesterday in London and it looks like European traders are figuring out this morning which way to go next.”

    The front-month September light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 27 cents, or 0.4%, at $71.70 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was down 31 cents at $70.64 a barrel.

    News of restarts at two major U.S. refineries also helped drag down crude oil prices.

    The second of two crude distillation units at Valero Energy Corp.’s (VLO) refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, has been restarted after downtime of about a week, but is still running at a lower rate. The crude unit was taken out of service last week because coker unit operations had to be reduced. Valero is no longer considering conducting maintenance on the crude unit.

    Dow Jones Newswires also learned that the processing units, including a reformer, at Chevron Corp.’s (CVX) Pascagoula, Mississippi refinery have returned to service. The crude unit is still down. Chevron declared force majeure last week at its Pascagoula refinery due to damage caused by a fire that started Aug. 16. Chevron hasn’t specified the extent of damage or duration of repairs.

    The facility is one of the top 10 petroleum refineries in the U.S. and is the largest wholly-owned plant in Chevron’s system.

    Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was down 1.23 cents, or 0.6%, at $2.0270 a gallon. September heating oil was down 68 points, or 1.6%, at $2.0029 a gallon.

    Traders are now turning their attention to U.S. oil and oil product inventory data scheduled for release by the EIA, the Department of Energy’s statistical arm, at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday.

    Gasoline inventories are seen falling by 1.8 million barrels, and crude oil stocks are predicted to decline by 800,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are predicted to rise by 600,000 barrels and refinery utilization is forecasted to remain unchanged in the week ended Aug.24.

    Some analysts said that if data for gasoline stockpiles counters expectations and shows an increase in the run-up to the U.S. Labor day holiday, prices could take a downturn.

    “If we see an increase in (gasoline) stocks tomorrow, then the gasoline could provide a draw on the whole oil complex,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

    —By Roshanak Taghavi, Dow Jones Newswires

  7. 7
    ndog Says:

    ok can someone give me some idea as to what effect this will have on the refiners. or what numbers we would need for a pop?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Hear ya cash is king, all opening positions for now, about half up a little, half from last month down too much. Very cautious.

    You see anything about another tropical wave forming?

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    ndog – probably anything over a 1.8 DRAW in gasoline or a sub 1 mm barrel BUILD in crude would provide impetus for a run in product prices.

    That said, broad market seems to once again be in charge of stock price sentiment. The refiners, especially TSO are getting hit hard despite the fact that Crack Spreads keep rising which should lead to another way of rising numbers. The stocks have gotten cheaper and cheaper on forward numbers, especially VLO and TSO (down 5% between today and yesterday on a big improvement in cracks).

    If margins and earnings aren’t in charge then it’s a sentiment sell off…more of the same stuff we saw a 2 to 3 weeks ago.

  10. 10
    ndog Says:

    Thanks Z. Got signed up last night so am assuming that the next week the login and webpage remains the same?

    Will you be updating or keeping the crack spread updated as we go production? I thought you had a link on the site for it but I don’t see it now. It was the initial reason I came to the site.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    NDOG – saw your sign up! Thanks!

    Website will be same address.

    Re the crack spread page…it’s already been hidden to all but people who’ve subscribed (part of the process of transitioning) If you login now you’ll see it among the tabs on the left. Let me know if you don’t see it!!! or have trouble signing in.

    The new site looks like the old site with the gas storage, crack, and CFTC tabs available.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    I was just about to post an update to the crack spread page which will also be in tomorrow’s post. Essentially, cracks continue to recover from the slide they took since May. In the last 4 weeks, all but one region (northeast) are showing strong gains. Give me two minutes and that chart’ll be up on the crack tab.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Crack Spreads tab updated.

    Ndog – let me know if you were able to log in and see the page.

    Also, that presentation from VLO on refining mentioned above in today’s post is very good and includes some trends that the industry is experiencing as well as some basic stuff that helps the laymen understand the biz. The good thing is, they dumbed it down for analysts to understand so you don’t have to be a petrochemical engineer to get it!

  14. 14
    ndog Says:

    i can log in but it brings my to a dashboard page which just not have any tabs. I’m logged in on this page but no tabs.

    http://zmansenergybrain.com/?p=655#comments

    let me know if you want this moved offline to email.

  15. 15
    ndog Says:

    that presentation is fantastic and I’ve sent it along to all of our salesreps in that area

  16. 16
    Sambone Says:

    Watching 94L. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Ndog – ok, that page it first takes you to allows you to change your password (lower right hand corner) to something more agreeable than the one the system assigns you. If you click on the title bar at the top of the page that’s like hitting the home key and get’s you to the main page and today’s post.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Nah, it’s fine here as others are going through the familiarization process.

    Energy seems to be getting the brunt of the market’s wrath today.

  19. 19
    ndog Says:

    yeah i can get to the main page but no tabs. using firefox

  20. 20
    ndog Says:

    ok sorry by tabs, I was expecting them under the title bar. I have a 3 column display and see the crack link on the left. my fault.

    was thinking tabs like your old site.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Ok, sorry probably shouldn’t call them tabs. You should see something like this in the upper left corner of the page:

    Brief tour of Zeb
    Zeb Perf
    CFTC
    Contact Z
    Crack Spreads
    Nat gas sto
    etc etc

    Do you see that stuff listed under Pages?

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    gotya, sent before I refreshed for comments.

    Let me know if you can get in there and see the graph, ok, thank!

    Thanks Sambone re 94L

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    NOTE TO PERSONS REGISTERED BEFORE THIS WEEK:

    Wednesday night those registrations will be terminated. Blame the lawyers. Anyway, unless you’ve signed up for the site this week your user name and password will no longer function. You will however be able to comment and view the daily post through Friday.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    market getting hosed. PTR down $8

  25. 25
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Sent you an E-mail

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Sambone – got it …will read shortly.

  27. 27
    Stephen Says:

    S&P had been setting lower lows and lower highs, since the end of July, not a nice chart.

    I sold my MDR this morning, I’d like to start bottom fishing for GSF ~ $65, NFX under $42. But, the S&P chart suggests we might be going for a lower low than 1406, I also don’t think Ben’s minutes at 2 pm today will be much relief. Any thoughts?

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Stephen – I can concur about the ugly market. It wants action, not flavor from the latest minutes. There might be a little support in there but my guess is its fleeting. They’re back to selling the bumps , not buying the dips.

    NFX is a steal down here but so are several good E&Ps at these levels. More in a bit…

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    TRADE: doubled TSO $50 call postion for $1.20.

  30. 30
    nicholasis Says:

    Z – thanks for posting that presentation!

    How do you think HAL looks for the next month or so?

  31. 31
    drdavis124 Says:

    -Hi Folks,
    -My first post. I am a long term sector player using “LONG TERM LEAPS-O9&10” My focus has be in ENERGY-MINING-METALS. My new interst is “FOOD-AGRACULTURE
    SHORTAGES” I am “short” at all times with PUTS

    -Largest positions Chk, XTO ECA YZC
    -ENERGY-eca xto VLO dvn apa bhp GST CNOOC
    -COAL- mee btu ycz ACI wlb ICO
    -METALS-FCX SLW GG SSRI TGB NG MMG LMC DNN CGAFF TIE
    -MISC.BAC BTJ BG PFE CYNO HP UCPI CPTC
    -“SHORTS-PUTS. BSC CFC MTG QQQQ SPY DIA YAHOO AMAT CSCO KLAC

    Phil

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Welcome Dr Davis!

    Nicholasis – hey, you’re welcome…it was a pretty slow news day anyway, lol.

    Re HAL I’m long the Septembers and while the stock is among the cheapest in service it is still subject to this cruddy broad market stuff. They’ve obviously eased off on their buyback since the it was upped in size (which is pretty smart since there’s no reason to step in front of a train).

    How it does will probably depend on the broad market first, natural gas second, and oil third. I think gas has the potential to quickly rebound from current levels but it can also get knocked below $5 with one bigger than expected injection. Oil probably holds high $60s or above during your time frame…that leaves the market which is still in Holy Crap mode! I’m not adding to my pos there now.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Scoop – sent you an email.

  34. 34
    drdavis124 Says:

    A record day for me. 90% of my stocks are down. 100% of my puts are up. However, my HEDGE position is not that large.

    Phil

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    Dr D – my only hedge is not acting like a hedge today. Everything else is off. 🙁

  36. 36
    jimbo Says:

    Nano-cap New Frontier Energy (NFEI.OB)ramps up production. More on line. One of my favorite “lottery picks”….it’s also a geographic interest.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070828/0295784.html

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Thanks Jimbo,

    man those are some itty bitty wells. 9 on line producing less that 1 MMcfgpd in aggregate is quite a bit of work for not a lot of gas. I think it’s funny they quote the percentage increase in production, any increase in gas would almost have to represent double digit growth.

    Still “Lottery picks” are a lot of fun though and generally immune to days like today. Know anything about the size of their acreage position or what their balance sheet looks like?

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    94L giving gas a little rally.

    minutes out, initial not happy

  39. 39
    jimbo Says:

    Re: #37 NFEI

    P/B 0.33
    Market cap 7.3M (mui nano)
    Avg Vol 13K/day
    $1.24/share
    $1.69 cash/share
    $0.12 debt/share

    Operates in CO & Wyo….close by here.

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Jimbo – sounds like a heck of a bargain – if you can every say that about a company with a market cap less than the cost of 1 east Tx deep well. What’s the catch?

  41. 41
    Sambone Says:

    Nymex Crude Continues Fall Below $72

    DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
    From Market Talk:
    [Dow Jones] Nymex crude continues to fall below $72/bbl, in the absence of any major news events or storm prospects. “It’s kind of in the end-of-summer torpor here,” says Andy Lebow of brokerage MF Global. “The market is certainly looking ahead for further inspiration, which may or may not come in tomorrow’s DOE report.” Oct Nymex crude -23c at $71.74/bbl. Sep benchmark gasoline -1.63c at $2.0230/gal. Oct ICE Brent -25c at $70.70/bbl. (roshanak.taghavi@dowjones.com

  42. 42
    jimbo Says:

    Re: #40

    What’s the catch?…I dunno. But I’m learning and the lesson isn’t all that expensive. Just found this guy while researching onshore gas E&P and it has a geographic interest to me. Hemi Energy is similar.

    Just in case, I do hold some TIPS in mutual funds. 🙂

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Jimbo,

    Hey peaks my interest too as I have a soft spot for single digit midget wanna be players. I’ll have a look soon…

    Sambone: agree with that “end of summer torpor”…yawn, zzzzzz.

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Just when you thought Fed cared.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-talked-about-policy-response/story.aspx?guid=%7B7E03CC53%2D8975%2D46B1%2DA856%2DA2C2785CBA06%7D

    Not that I disagree on inflation …I just think their measurement of it stinks and I think they know it.

  45. 45
    jimbo Says:

    Re: #43

    I figure it’s thinly traded and a wanna be takeover target. CEO: Paul Laird

  46. 46
    Sambone Says:

    I like #13
    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/kosares/2007/0828.html

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Re 13: yeah, I was referring to people like me who walk around a site like that going, gee that nice big shiny tower. How does that make you money?

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Sambone, oh I thought you meant my comment number 13, lol. Your #13 is much funnier, “not uncritical”

  49. 49
    drdavis124 Says:

    Re #43
    UNICORP- UCPI.OB $0.25 Production up
    3-4X
    Yahoo news—

    http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070823/20070823005660.html?

    Phil

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Sambone,

    That’s a scary and funny list. The final comment is very astute. The Fed has engaged in managing sentiment, not liquidity.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Dr D – another penny for our thoughts? That one has some sizable production. More weekend reading for me.

  52. 52
    Sambone Says:

    Z – Yup, scary. FYI – History repeats.

  53. 53
    Sambone Says:

    Nicky’s good buddy is quoted!

    Nymex Crude Ends Slightly Lower, Stays Below $72

    By ROSHANAK TAGHAVI
    Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

    NEW YORK — Crude-oil futures ended lower, below $72 a barrel Tuesday, with declining U.S. equities and refinery restarts in Texas and Mississippi outweighing concern that natural gas production could be hit by a storm along the U.S. Gulf coast.

    “This market’s torn — it doesn’t know if it wants to follow the stock market down or follow the natural gas up,” said Phil Flynn, a broker at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “There’s not a lot of passion on this market right now one way or another.”

    The front-month October light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was down 17 cents, or 0.2%, at $71.80 a barrel. Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was down 35 cents at $70.60 a barrel.

    Crude oil futures spiked briefly on the back of a natural gas rally that developed on news that an Atlantic tropical weather disturbance could develop into a hurricane and disrupt natural gas production along the US Gulf of Mexico.

    Oil prices were quickly pulled back down by declining U.S. stocks, which extended their losses after economic data had Standard & Poor’s reporting U.S. home sales fell at a faster pace in the second quarter, down 3.2% compared with the year-earlier period. This news marked the largest year-over-year decline in the 20-year history of the Case-Shiller home price index. U.S. stocks also finished lower Monday after data on the number of unsold homes for July hit a peak not seen in more than 15 years.

    Overseas, the Nikkei 225 average closed 0.1% lower in Tokyo and the FTSE 100, after a three-day break, slipped 0.8% in London.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average not performing well is keeping crude oil prices from really moving higher, said Tony Rosado of IAG Energy Brokers in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

    Front-month September reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, was down 2.03 cents, or 1.0%, at $2.0190 a gallon. September heating oil was down 1.27 cents, or 0.6%, at $1.9970 a gallon.

    News of restarts at three major U.S. refineries also helped drag down crude oil prices.

    Citgo Petroleum Corp. is restarting an alkylation unit at its 157,000 barrel a day Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery, which will allow gasoline production to recover, a person familiar with the refinery’s operations said Tuesday.

    One of two crude distillation units at Valero Energy Corp.’s (VLO) refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, has been restarted after downtime of about a week. The crude unit was taken out of service last week because coker unit operations had to be reduced. The coker is still running at a lower rate.

    Processing units at Chevron Corp.’s (CVX) Pascagoula, Miss., refinery have returned to service, according to a person familiar with operations. The crude unit is still down, however. Last week, Chevron canceled a 550,000-barrel cargo of Venezuelan oil for September delivery due to damage caused by a fire that started Aug. 16. The company said it may cancel or reroute more cargoes, and hasn’t specified the extent of damage or duration of repairs.

    The facility is one of the top 10 petroleum refineries in the U.S. and is the largest wholly owned plant in Chevron’s system.

    “There’s not a whole lot of news out here,” said Tom Bentz, an analyst at brokerage BNP Paribas in New York, adding that traders are waiting to hear about U.S. government data on oil and oil product inventories.

    The data is scheduled for release by the EIA, the Department of Energy’s statistical arm, at 10:30am EDT Wednesday.

    Gasoline inventories are seen falling by 1.8 million barrels, and crude oil stocks are predicted to decline by 800,000 barrels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are predicted to rise by 600,000 barrels and refinery utilization is forecasted to remain unchanged in the week ended Aug.24.

    “We continue to play this game of mixed emotions, and it will probably continue until we get tomorrow’s DOE report,” said Flynn.

    —By Roshanak Taghavi, Dow Jones Newswires

  54. 54
    rammastr Says:

    Maybe the financial markets believe “all tools may be used by the Fed” is a bluff now.

  55. 55
    Stephen Says:

    Falling knife anyone?

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    talk about falling knife, PTR down $10+

  57. 57
    Sambone Says:

    Stephen – This week doesn’t really count in my book. Low volume, everybodie’s on vacation, etc. If this happened next week, then I agree.

  58. 58
    rammastr Says:

    Doesn’t really count???

  59. 59
    Sambone Says:

    Ram – To me?, I’m in cash, very few stock postions, long SKF, and SJH. This is a “Dead cat bounce”. What you need to watch is 12,600 on the Dow. If it breaks below, then you watch 12,000.00. If it breaks below 12K, then it has broken it’s 5 year trend line, which ain’t good. look at a chart of the Dow and you’ll see a “Head and shoulders” pattern.

  60. 60
    rammastr Says:

    O.K. Thanks.

  61. 61
    T-Tupp Says:

    z you didnt double down on vlo too?

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Tupp- nope. Enough pain for me…they all need to start acting better for me.

  63. 63
    T-Tupp Says:

    yea i have no idea why a growth stock like TSO is getting so hammered with the broad market. i was doing some back testing and VLO back in the days when it was growth stockish, it faired pretty good in full out bear markets….. things might get crazy tomorrow if we get a big DRAW and we have a flat or bullish on the broad…..

  64. 64
    Fred Says:

    http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Thanks Tupp. It’s gotten very cheap here and I personally don’t believe we’ll be driving less (at least cars) if the economy gets bit tired for awhile. A recession would impact but do we really see that coming?

    Fred – Man, they talk about crash and tire bull and end with two more years of good market in summary. That’s saying a lot in only two paragraphs. My question is, where were all these guys 2 months ago when CNBC was having champagne tasting contest on a daily basis and the guys on Fast Money were drinking red wine (are they still doing that? I’d bet not). That Dow bug showing the amount off the all time high has gone MIA as well. Anyway, all the problems that led to the liquidity crunch have been in place for quite some time and yet now everyone is trying to tell you they told you so when all I heard “was come on Dow 14,500 by year end!”

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®
Get Adobe Flash player
%d bloggers like this: