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If you missed the weekend wrap click here. It contains all the news you can use regarding last week’s commodity and index numbers (would you believe energy stocks were up on the week while oil fell 5% and RBOB retreated another 4%?). Also, comments on the CFTC and the breakout for natural gas prices … a must!
Oil- Back over $72. Technically it’s probably due a small bounce. Here are some items that will likely be supportive at least for the first hour of trading.
- Nigeria Watch: Rebels released a kidnapped oil worker for medical treatment but he died. MEND and other gang activity appears to be increasing again.
- Hugo Watch: A PDVSA oil rig exploded on Friday according to Reuters. Hugo is trying to increase production by using the army to operate rigs. Guns and oil rigs don’t mix.
- Ahmad Watch: Ahmed fires Iran’s oil minister Kazem Yaziri-Hamaneh. Reuters sources speculated that Ahmadinenejad is trying to increase his control over Iran’s oil interests which will probably translate into rasher statements from the country regarding its use of oil as a weapon as well as on the price of oil being too low. I’ve often note Iran’s ability to turn on a dime from dove to hawk. Getting ready for more consitent hawk in their oil talk.
Natural Gas Surges. Gas is making a push towards $7 (up another $0.12 this morning to $6.95) on a combination of heat and increased tropical activity. Shorts have got to be getting concerned in their crowded little theater.
- Heat Wave Watch: Cooling degree days last week soared to 91. The Climate Prediction Center’s early read calls for CDDs of 88 this week but looking at the forecasts for many of the more gas-centric regions it appears that even high gas demand for cooling load is in the near term cards.
- Tropics Watch: Also Heating Up. — tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic Basin and the bright dot at right definitely has some convection to it. Here’s what the guys at Accuweather are saying about this one developing into something threatening later this month.
Earnings We Care About This Week: Slim pickin’s. If you know of one I should care about but missed please comment or email me. Thanks.
Odds & Ends:
Analyst Watch: (GSF) and (RIG) to buy at Jefco, (MRO) upped to hold at FBR, (EGY) upped to hold at RBC. (OSG) raised to outperform at Credit Suisse.