02
Aug

Tropical Thursday?

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Baby, bathwater, rubber ducky, bath mat, porcelain. All things thrown out as oil  took out it's record high and bounced lower. Refiners took the brunt of the action falling on average 3% (it was 7% before the DJIA's last minute dead cat bounce) as RBOB dropped $0.076 to $2.03 on higher than expected refinery utilization which in turn apparently dragged crude lower despite a massive draw. Nicky sees September RBOB support at $2 and I concur. See EIA report details below.

Earnings We Care About Watch:  

  • (OII) - BIG RESOUNDING BEAT! Guidance Increased.
    • 2Q EPS of $0.86 versus consensus of $0.71 (range was $0.69 to $0.73 which was roughly in line with guidance the company gave back in May).Up 55% YoY, 44% QoQ.
    • Revenue of $432 million vs consensus of $376mm, this also exceed the top end of Street expectations ($369-$387) by a mile.
      • ROV Division: Increased operating income 30% relative to 1Q07. Increased day rates to $8,300 (up from $7,900 in 1Q) and utilization to 87%. These guys operate the largest fleet of ROVs in the world with 202 vehicles vs 193 at the end of March.
      • Subsea Projects: gunning for another record year. 1H07 operating income equates to 75% of all of 2006. Expect back half 2007 to be stronger than first.
      • Inspection: Operating income set to exceed 2006's record levels.

      3Q raised to a range of $0.80 to $0.88; Street is at $0.80.

    • Backlog now at $378 million.
    • '07 Guidance Increased to range of $2.95 to $3.10 (equates to 30% YoY) from range of $2.70 to $2.90. Street is at $2.83.
    • Conference call: 11 est.
    • This is also one of the hurricane plays I outlined in Always An Option 1:3 and highlighted on MN1.com yesterday. Get your complimentary copy our new newsletter here. Your feedback on our new endeavor would be greatly appreciated; email me and I'll forward it along!
  • (GW) - Reported $0.19 vs expectations of $0.20. This was a 28% decline from year over year earnings and attributable to increased competition from new rigs entering the U.S. land rig market and depressing day rates, especially in the lower end rig market. Yet another reason to steer clear of land drillers at present. Stock was down 5% after the closer upon the results yesterday.

Nutbag Hugo Watch: Chavez says oil to go straight to $100. "As we continue to see increases in the price of oil, which is headed straight to $100 (per barrel), the price of (natural) gas is also going to rise," Chavez said during a televised speech. September crude promptly fell $1.70 to close at $76.50 on the day. So why would the "man of the people" want $100 oil. Oh yeah, that's the only way he can subsidize his existence.Nigeria Watch: Rebels kidnapped a Nigerian oil worker employed by Eni.

Refiners Have Repeatedly Taken It On The Chin Since I Ran This Story on June 12th. My mistake was going long (VLO) too early in the face of a wave of "take no prisoners" selling that knows not statistics and margins but employs more cro-magnon style logic like, "Hey they make gas. Gas bad".

Oil Report:

  • Crude: At 6.8 million barrels, the draw down is not only much bigger than expected but highly suspect. 
    • Yes refinery utilization jumped up to 93.6% (about a 1% more than anticipated)
    • And As A Result, Refiner Inputs Increased... Refiner throughput increased by nearly 400,000 bopd which would account for additional demand for oil of 2.8 million barrels relative to last week,
    • ...While Crude Imports Were Down Slightly... Imports were down 200,000 bopd which translates into a week to week slide of 1.5 million barrels.


    • I'd Say they over estimated yesterday's draw again. The numbers just aren't there in the weekly changes to get to an almost 7 mm barrel pull.
  • Oil did what I thought it would by taking out the record and then quickly beating a retreat. While I don't think it's done just yet with the high $70s I'd bet we will see lower 70s upper 60s soon. With gasoline in hand and distillates rising products won't support current prices no matter what Chavez, the EIA or Goldman Socks tells you. Remember the last "super spike" call of theirs saw oil 20% lower within two months. Also recall that internet Cramer interview where he "explains" that hedge funds always, always, always say one thing while doing the opposite. (GS) is the biggest hedge fund on the planet.
  • Gasoline: 600,000 barrel build was essentially in line with expectations. Imports drifted off to 1.2 mm bpd after hitting record levels last week. September RBOB got nuked back to $2.03. Key psychological support remains at $2 and the contract traded as low as $2.0015 before the close of NYMEX trading yesterday. This morning the contract has already touched on $2.0005,

I Hate To Poke The Bull But Can't Help Myself Watch:

"The refineries have finally gotten their act together," Flynn said. "They're back to normal, almost."

Comment: This was said in response to utilization hitting 93.6%. As opposed to four weeks ago when the refiners produced a whole 27,000 barrels of gasoline per day less. Man, they really pulled it together. Gosh, I guess if you only look at the utilization number, up from 90% at that time you would think they've really "gotten their act together". Furthermore, the "almost" just slays me as that "almost" scenario got you all time record friggin gasoline production. I know what he means but why not focus on the supply demand numbers and not the largely irrelevant utilization number which is not meaningful for apples to apples comparisons from year to year? Ok, I promise not to poke the bull again for at least 1 day.

 gaso-prod-080107.jpg

  • Distillates Up 2.8 million barrels. Double expectations

Premature E-Notification Watch: If you were listening to MN1.com today, you'll note that we had the numbers about 5 minutes earlier than their regularly scheduled released. Here's EIA's comment:

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is aware that petroleum data for the week ending July 27, scheduled for release at 10:30 AM Eastern Time today, was available on the public EIA website before the scheduled release time. Initial indications suggest a malfunction in the system used by EIA to load the data while keeping it from public release prior to the scheduled release time. EIA is actively investigating this event and its possible causes. Once the problem is fully understood, EIA will make whatever changes in its systems or procedures that may be required to avoid a recurrence. Comment: Maybe somebody there was just excited to get that massive crude draw out the door early.

Natural Gas Preview:

  • Imports Watch: Gross natural gas imports to the U.S. fell about 1 Bcfgpd vs the prior week and were roughly in line relative to the year ago week.
    •  LNG - a week to week tumble in LNG volumes accounted for 0.95 Bcfgpd of the over all drop in imports. This is after a sharp spike last week to record highs and the volatility is no doubt attributable to the timing of offloadings (3 extra ships in last week’s number could do it).
    • Canadian piped gas inched back a hair from last week to 9.2 Bcfgpd.
  • CDDs Were Flat Week To Week. Down a touch from 72 to 70.
  • My Number 60 -65 Bcf Injection. Haven't seen the Street's number.
  • And that would push storage to 2% over record levels. Last year it was so hot 12 Bcf was withdrawn from storage. This summer, production is higher, imports are higher, the weather is cooler and we continue to inject away.
  • Over / Under: I think 50 to 70 Bcf is probably the range of injections that's expected and gas prices will look to other things for direction if it falls in there.

Tropics Watch: Getting Busier. Natural gas is getting some support from  from a couple of lows which remain fairly disorganized but have "some potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so" in the case of the one near Barbados and "slow development is possible" for a low in the GOMEX west of Florida. There's also increasing activity coming off Africa. Comment: It'll take more than rain and slight convection to support gas in the face of another two weeks of easy comps for gas storage.

Holdings Watch

CALLS: Tempting but again, no action.

PUTS:

  • (TSO): added August $42.50s for $0.55 just in case things go nutty in the morning. (FTO) and (WNR) puts are doing very nicely up 341% and 44% respectively on the bid and make a nice hedge for my currently ill-fated (VLO) calls.
  • (BJS): Sold the August $27.50s for $2.30, a 197% gain since 7/24. Much better than I expected but not enough of a hedge to make me happy on a day when (HAL) slumps a percent. I suspect on days like yesterday with so much market turbulence their broker takes a relaxed stance towards accumulating shares for the buyback, knowing he can catch up later in the week at lower prices.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: (GSX) upgraded to outperform at Wachovia. See errata next.

Errata: I mistaken swapped (GSX) for (GST) in my Monday morning comments. I hold (GST) as a long term position, not (GSX).  I process and analyze a lot of data around here and try as hard as I might mistakes do and will happen from time to time.

Housekeeping Item #1. Please make sure to add zmanalpha@gmail.com to your safe list so I'm not spam-filtered out. Thanks.

Housekeeping Item #2 Note to recent readers: You may find it helpful to visit the Brief Tour of Zeb page which gives an overview of how things work around here. Also, you can find more in depth company analysis on the ZEB Reports page.

Subscription Watch: 9 days until the discount window closes. Response has been impressive to me but not my four year old who has recently discovered the word millions and thus anything less goes into her "whatever" file.

Have A Great Day Everyone and Good Luck. 

71 Responses to “Tropical Thursday?”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Brent below WTI

  2. 2
    Brian08 Says:

    Hey Z– Is EOG out with earnings after the close today or tomorrow morning?

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    EOG (earnings tomorrow), NFX and SWN – nice rally starting.

    OII – showing up 4% but can’t open it yet.

  4. 4
    Sambone Says:

    Z – I’ve tried posting, but it won’t take?

  5. 5
    Sambone Says:

    TA – Monday
    LONG-TERM SELL SIGNAL REGISTERED FOR THE RUSSELL 2000 INDEX….
    HEDGE WITH THE RYSHX. MORE BELOW*

    Market Outlook

    Last week was painful but so far the retreat is within the confines of a normal consolidation. The big question
    is whether or not this consolidation (less than 10%) can turn into more of a correction (up to 19%) or even a
    bear market (20%+). Since no one can really answer that question with certainty, we’ll have to let the market
    tell us. Levels to be aware of are DOW 12,600 and roughly 12,000 (10% and 14% respectively off the
    14,000 peak). A 10% retreat for the S&P 500 index would be 1,395. More importantly, 12,000 for the Dow
    and 1,395 for the S&P 500 Index intersect with their four-plus-year uptrends currently in force.
    Mechanical technical downgrades have been abundant. While we’ve found that when this occurs a reversal
    typically comes our way, Friday’s close at the low of the day doesn’t bode well for Monday’s trading. Even
    Gold broke under its 50- and 200-day moving averages. We recommend postponing new purchases, continuing
    to raise cash, and owning inverse ETFs.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Brian – uncertain. They host analyst days in Houston and NY next week so if the call is a good one the move could get enhanced next week. (and vv).

    Sambone – I saw that one!

  7. 7
    codydog Says:

    sambone–who is that from?

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    OII up 7%+ over $60. ALWAYS sell the initial excitement is the rule over at PSW and I’m usually inclined to agree but I’m holding a little while longer. If I had the $50s, sure, I’d be out of half in sec but I was stupid and in the $60s.

  9. 9
    jonnynav Says:

    GULF OF MEXICO:
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico. This activity is associated with a weakening frontal
    boundary situated over the northeastern Gulf. Conditions remain
    marginally favorable for tropical development and the area will be
    watched closely over the next couple of days.

    CARIBBEAN SEA:
    A tropical wave and associated low pressure center are noted just to
    the west of the Lesser Antilles and are moving westward at 15-20mph.
    This wave is producing substantial thunderstorm activity and
    conditions remain favorable for tropical development in this region.
    An Air Force recon aircraft may investigate this region on Thursday.
    WWT will keep a close eye on this region and issue statements as
    needed. A second tropical wave is noted along 72W, south of 18N, and
    is moving westward at 15-20mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
    are associated with this wave, and no development is expected. A
    third tropical wave is noted near 86W, south of 20N, and is moving
    westward at 20mph. Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is
    associated with this wave and development is not expected at this
    time.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN:
    A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 28W,
    south of 18N. Development is not expected at this time. Another wave
    is located in the Central Atlantic, along 45W, south of 18N, and is
    moving westward at 15mph. Development is not currently expected in
    this region as well.

    Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

  10. 10
    jonnynav Says:

    How is SWN looking? Holding Calls

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Offering a little OII higher than here. ALWAYS SELL The Initial Pop should be inscribed on my forehead.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Johnnynav, it was up 5% at the open. The call went great yesterday if not a bit long. For now it all depends on gas prices despite the fact that they’re 75% hedge at much better than $7.

  13. 13
    scoop006 Says:

    RE #11 MY FOREHEAD AND MY TRIGGER FINGER TOO

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Here’s a chance to play the post profit taking bounce on OII. The $60 calls can be had for around $1.40 now and they were bid $2.15 not 15 minutes ago.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Scoop: re NFX?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Forgot to mention CHK reports after the close. I’m in longer dated options there (jan-08s) and I’d bet they have a very upbeat call. Don’t see a miss as likely. If you’re not in, the gas number may give you a op to get in lower though.

  17. 17
    codydog Says:

    No need for OPEC to lift oil supply in Q4, market adequately supplied– citing OPEC delegate

  18. 18
    scoop006 Says:

    Z OII & in general

  19. 19
    codydog Says:

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/08022007/business/crude_traders_pump_oil_toward_100_level_business_paul_tharp.htm

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Liking the action in the refiners. Everybody is terrified RBOB will fail $2.

    VLO moving up slightly. I’m long and don’t trust it just because it fits my thesis as the other little names continue to fall off today. FTO ouch, WNR ouch, HOC ouch

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Nicky – did you see in the post where PF misses the fact that yesterday was all time record friggin production and says that refiners are “almost” back to normal? Sheeeshs

    Scoop: me too so far OII.

    Refiners getting crushed back towards yesterday’s pre I Gotta Get Me Some Dow Rally.

    Cody – I don’t read the NY times unless I want a movie review and then only in light of the Costanza factor, got a synopsis.

    BP – what can I sway, it’s their anniversary. Anymore and I tee off too many of them that read this, lol.

  22. 22
    codydog Says:

    nicky–are there any rumors of margins being increased at futures exchanges?

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    That CVX news last night about bad production is whipping the stock sinking the majors and making the energy tape generally red.

    Nicky – thanks re wave analysis

    Cody – I have not heard any.

  24. 24
    Sambone Says:

    99L – Pretty impressive build over night. We’ll see.
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

  25. 25
    codydog Says:

    OK, who bot the aug 40 put in UNG this am? wasnt me..

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Nicky – Always and thanks for the nat gas number, seems high but those guys are pretty good. If they’re expecting 10 Bcf more than I was writing today than the bar just got a little easier for gas to remain over $6. OIH looks worried about the number to me.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    Wonder if the gas number will come out early too. Note to EIA: the intern that comes in with the new Porsche next week is responsible for the early release yesterday.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Chavez, Flynn, Ahmed, EIA, IEA = strange bed fellows.

  29. 29
    codydog Says:

    anyone like RIG today?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Rig = will pop if the number comes out small. Seems kind of a dumb thing to type but true.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    77 Bcf

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    number is clean – I guess that’s in line with consensus then. Initial reaction was to sell gas …

  33. 33
    Sambone Says:

    RIG – I’m about to get stopped out.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    No panic in gas. What did the weather girls say?

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    XOI support looks 2% lower to me. Very cautious with new positions until it gets down there.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    SWN fell from a high of just under $43 today to $41 as it worried about this number. Now looks to be inching up. $41.20 now.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    from Denise on Nitrogen

    I Have Effectively Sold All My Terra Nitrogen And Why
    8/1/2007 1:38 PM EDT
    During the recent earnings conference call for Terra Industries (TRA), I was shocked to discover that the earnings split between TRA and its wholy owned Terra Nitrogen (TNH) factory — TNH is an MLP, and TRA is the GP that runs TNH — will swing massively soon against TNH shareholders.

    Much like a hedge fund has a high water mark to meet before it earns its typical 20%-25% performance fees, so too had a lack of earnings at TNH in the past created almost $200 million in ‘deficiencies’ that had to be earned back before TRA could get a better split. Thus, TRA has only been receiving 1% of earnings and the balance hes been given to TNH shareholders.

    Now that earnings at TNH have surged (over $3 last quarter) and look very strong in coming quarters, the $8.18 per share deficiency could be covered in the next 3-4 quarters. Once this is done, TRA begins to take 50% of all earnings at TNH over $1.045!

    I called TRA management to discuss this and see if this was correct, and they confirmed it and in fact are concerned enough about it that they decided to post this old information in their new 10-Q to cover themselves and make sure they have the high ground on this issue. Here is the latest 10-Q. Notice the splits information clearly outlined at the bottom.

    I don’t believe the current $100 price on TNH reflects this fact yet. TNH shareholders will pretty much get the next $8.18 to themselves, but thereafter, big dividends will get split with TRA cutting the divvy as much as 40%-50% going forward.

    So what is TNH worth? Well, if natural gas prices soar or fertilizer prices fall, TNH can go to single digits in a hurry (traded at $2 back in 2002). At the other extreme, if current conditions hold and TNH can generate $10 in earnings annually going forward (low natural gas prices and high fertilizer prices stay constant), shareholders will no longer get that $10 in divvies and will instead get something more like $5.50 or so. Since there are straight plays on natural gas like San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT), which yields 11% currently while a typical MLP that owns pipelines or is highly hedged in energy production yields 5%, I can’t see how TNH can trade any lower than 7% yield.

    Back when I was a raging bull on TNH and predicted $3+ quarterly earnings in future (lower in winter) and perhaps $10 annually, I assumed shareholders would get that $10 and thus at a 6% yield would equate to $166 and at a 7% yield would equate to $140. But if the best case long term is for shareholders to get $5.50 or so, then at 6% yield, that’s a price of $91 and at a 7% yield, you get $79.

    Keep in mind this price range of $80 to $90 is what I think TNH is worth with everything going perfectly (high fertilizer prices/low natural gas costs) like we have now. Since this is unlikely to hold forever, a fair value is something between single digits and $90.

    Ironically, this is NOT a good reason to buy TRA either! TRA owns 75% of TNH stock, and since the companies are similar in size, TNH makes up a huge portion of TRA’s market cap. If you assume $2.50 earnings every quarter going forward at TNH and new splits kick in, it’s only worth about 10%-15% more cash flow to TRA. I believe the potential massive downside to TNH share price/loss of balance sheet strength at TRA outweighs the small incremental amount of cash flow it will receive from the new TNH split. In short, when you already get 75% of the dividends because you own 75% of the stock, you don’t make a lot more cash flow if your split goes from 1% to 50%.

    I’m out of TRA and now have a net short position in TNH as I expect when the upcoming huge change to splits in profits of TNH gets more discovered, the longs will flee. I worry that retail holders may be the last to know, so I’m out here waving the flag to them especially.

    To me, being long TNH is kind of like the old “heads I win, tails you lose.” The details of the TRA/TNH partnership can be found on the company website for those who want to delve into the details.

    I highly recommend Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan (POT) as a replacement for TRA/TNH. POT dominates the global potash marketplace, and the company announced price hikes for its product going forward that can easily stick given the portion of market it controls. Royal Bank of Canada just came out Friday and gave POT a BUY with a $93 price target.

    Position: Long POT; short TNH

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    OII – Conf Call

    currently ROBs are a little more weighted into construction service, as they’ve been gunning for.

    seeing increased work for Navy on ships and subs.

    Cash flow: $100mm in 2Q, 50% above 2Q06, 30% above 1Q. Annualize that and this stock is cheap

    more to come

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    OII – All 12 analysts will be raising numbers here. ALL OF THEM

  40. 40
    Denise Says:

    This info is not from me my subscription to Minyanville writer/hedge fd mgr Bill Connors-just wanted to pass it along
    I wish I was short never read the fine print and was long
    no position as of yesterday

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    OII CC

    2008 – see strong demand, no change in fundamental, increased CAPEX expected as usual with Deepwater GOM

    DW fundamentals:
    * 75% of DW fields not yet in production
    * 60 new floaters added through 2010
    * contracts are going out 5 years.
    * one of these had a $1 billion price tag and doesn’t even start until 2010
    * huge dw umbilical demand.

    2008 earnings seen higher than 2007. Outstanding statement.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    OII CC Q&A

    ** 13 ROVs built during the quarter, Is this sustainable.

    On balance plan to increase net 2 vehicles per month. (they have 202 now, world’s largest fleet)

    ** Pricing on day rates for 3q and 4Q, continue to expect maintain margins.

    IRM – Inspection, repair, and maintenance just looks better and better. Time passes, stuff on the ocean floor breaks (an ever-increasing amount of stuff) and they get the phone call.

    buyback not a priority.

    Personnel availability: 4 training schools going for ROV operators, no excess people. They’ve been able to pass the higher costs along so far and thing they will continue to maintain ROV margins.

    Umbilicals: completed UK facility increasing capacity by 50%, like the second half of the year even more than the first.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Got to run to a kids doctor appointment. Back whenever they get off the green and see us. Probably 2 hours.

    Taking some CHK calls for the call tonight, rather timidly.

  44. 44
    jimbo Says:

    A general question for the crowd….

    Here in Wyoming the price of gasoline at the pump is usually RBOB (or NY Harbor) + 50 cents. This has been true for the last 20 years.

    It is now RBOB + 90 cents. Is this due to crack spread, “quick to rise, slow to fall”, geographic inefficiency, or some other phenomenon?

    Isn’t hurting FTO in Cheyenne.

  45. 45
    codydog Says:

    I’ve seen similar stuff in RI, but imho, as price goes up, distribs and dealers think they can squeeze as much out of you as possible – which is true. The cost of not buying HO or RBOB is much higher than paying their prices.

  46. 46
    Lman Says:

    On the distribution side what does the recent activity of BOARDWALK PIPELINE PARTNERS (BWP) suggest? At current prices this stock is undervalued by 23% vs it’s earnings. If gas prices rise will distribution companies such as BWP benefit?

  47. 47
    Fred Says:

    Does anyone have an opinion on DVR? Thx

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    I’m back.

    RE: DVR: lots of people on this site like them and they should be just as busy as OII. Well, maybe not THAT busy but busy enough. No options there though

    OII up 8% and my stops didn’t trigger while I was gone. Sweet!

    BWP – I’ll look at it after the close or on the weekend if it’s really interesting.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Nicky – nat gas having a hard time of it with that in mind. Still, I’m guessing here to $5.75 is the worst.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Refiners: Nice contrasting move VLO up a buck and the others moving south. Maybe, just maybe, my thesis is coalescing …maybe the bathwater panic is over and we’re looking at valuations and fundamentals.

  51. 51
    codydog Says:

    z–nice call in OII

    NG just keeps rolling over –

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    CHK hedges:

    q2: 53% gas hedged at $8.11
    q3: 54% ” at 8.30
    q4: 55% ” at 8.98

    64% of exp 08 prod hedged at 64%

    They have collars on another 10 to 15% at just under $7.

    Oil: 77% hedged over 71

  53. 53
    Brian08 Says:

    Z– Has the steam run outta those NFX 50s?

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Bryan – I don’t think so yet. Still holding mine.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    About to finally come out of some OII, being patient and letting it come to me. If I’d followed the “always sell the initial excitement I could easily have traded it for a second double today.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    EOG and CHK rallying into their earnings.

  57. 57
    rammastr Says:

    Why does HAL remain weak?

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    HAL weak = Natural gas. Plus you’ve got guys like cramer incessantly bashing the name despite the fact that he was wrong on both the stock won’t move thing (they subsequently announced another big buyback) and on the earnings front (he said they’d missed and instead they beat). Has he done a mea culpa on CNBC about either count? Not that I’ve seen. HAL’s business looks tremendous and the stock was doing well until the market took a break last Thursday. At this point, I hold my August into next week and then roll to September or longer as the fundamentals here have only gotten better, not worse. The fact that we have so much gas in storage is in large part attributable to: 1) mild weather, 2) fat LNG imports, and 3) big production coming out of the non-conventional basins. Without $6 gas, drilling slowdowns occur and the numbers roll over quickly as the high IPs with parabolic declines smack you in the face.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    TRADE: CHK $35 CALLs for $0.75 and $0.80

    still running into the close, EOG up over $2.

    OII back up over 8%

  60. 60
    Brian08 Says:

    If Aubrey can use the words, “MLP” or “selling to the highest bidder”, I’m going to fly down to OKC and give him a big bear hug!

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Bri – EXACTLY.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    For that matter, Mark Papa at EOG can do the same thing.

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    NFX just took some more nice hedges, just released on a @NFX publication. If you’ve never looked at one of these pubs I say stop what you’re doing and read the last 2 or 3. That is the way to keep people up on the going’s on at an E&P company. Their IR guy came out of APC and knows hit stuff.

  64. 64
    scoop006 Says:

    Hey Mr. ZMAN You are the best. Re post # 16 in @.60 out @.90. Many Thanks

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Today’s Food For Thought: One of the things people are missing when they get all down on the natural gas companies is that oil prices and therefore, natural gas liquids prices are high. For those operators with liquids rich gas streams, like the guys in the Barnett Shale, they have the option of stripping out a greater percentage of liquids BTUs to be sold as higher priced NGLs. Normally you go from wet to dry gas but the term “dry” can mean a variety of levels of BTUs. Just something think about as I see people here and there saying, sell the natural gas stock b/c gas is going to crack. It’s a little more complex than they think.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    CHK numbers out:

    $0.71 vs $0.65 expected, when you scrub the numbers for gains from hedging and other.

    CF was very strong

    Production up 9% sequentially which is absolutely amazing for a company of this size but it has some peers that are doing that well b/c of the shales so I won’t hype the number. It was 19% up vs 2q06.

    LOE and GA down on a per unit basis

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    More on CHK

    Revenue was $2.1B, analysts were at $1.6B (range of $1.32 to $1.87)

    Production: WOW
    U.S. natural gas production was enough to drive them 2 spaces higher from 6th largest to 4th as they passed Devon and Chevron in US gas production.

  68. 68
    Brian08 Says:

    Z, I don’t know nearly as much as some of the posters on this site about energy and the like, but CHK still amazes me with the sequential production gains they are able to make…Even though this is a bloated position in my portfolio I have never once worried about it when it has gone down…

    I don’t think Aubrey gets near enough credit in the mainstream business media for the job he does at this company…

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Brian – part of the problem is the amount he has been willing to pay to get here. People are slow to respond b/c of that be in essence I agree with you. The guy’s a stud.

    EOG upping 2007 production guidance.

  70. 70
    Brian08 Says:

    Z- I keep forgetting that everybody was all in an uproar when he acquired all those “safe” resources in Appalachia…I don’t see Mother Hurricane or Al-Queda getting to those anytime soon…

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    EOG : $1.17A vs $1.04E for 2Q,m revenue exceeded.

    Taking up production guidance from 10% for 2007 to 11.5%.

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