25
Jul

Wednesday – Yesterday Day Was Huge! Today Oil Report Expectations Are All Over The Map

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Refiners got whacked right on cue! Ok, that was fun. More days like that please! (WNR) off 9.9% with the rest of the small to large independents all off 5 to 7+% on the day save (VLO), the one stock in the group that I think isn't over priced "only" falling 2.7%.

Late Monday afternoon in comments I said:

Refiners - more brokers agree with me and the stocks can’t hold gains into the close. Refiners report next week so this could get a lot uglier before they can report some big YoY and QoQ #s.

Brian08 responded after my comment at the end of that rollercoaster of a day with rally headfakes too numerous to count with what seems now to have been quite prophetic clarity:

Amen to that one Z! Only a small blip in the radar…A day like this only goes to show the importance of having a thesis when you are trading…If you don’t have that, a day like this will CERTAINLY make you panic and make some stupid, rash decision(s)… Comment: Without that thesis "we're all just one trade away from humility".

On Friday the 13th I wrote:

"multiples have become elevated for refiners as the stocks have had a good run this year owing to large increases in YoY crack spreads. ...but the stocks have recently accelerated their run.
If they went up in lockstep with higher cracks, it stands to reason that the stocks, especially the smaller caps that have experienced significant multiple expansion will full the same pull, if only seasonal in nature as estimate growth slows, and eventually falls.

Finally, I was taking a look at historic forward multiples of earnings and valuations look pretty lofty here. Even (VLO), my favorite refiner is trading a little higher than it normally does on a forward basis. As you go down the market cap chain, the relationship between past trading range multiples and present multiples of forward earnings gets truly stretched.

That was then (12 days ago):

refiner-multiple-071207.jpg

This is now:

refiner-multiple-072407.jpg

Equal Weighted Refiner Index Looks A Little Different From The 13th As Well!
refining-eq-index072407.jpg

Earnings Watch:

(NBR) - Slight Miss.  $0.79 including a $0.10 gain vs $0.80 consensus. They point out the gain (which should be excluded) "was offset by a $0.10 drop in investment income" as 2 of the 30 funds they invest in stung them.

  • They only did this well due to a lower effective tax rate and their share buyback since they missed on the top line as well ($1.16B vs $1.20B expected).
  • Canada operations: abysmal - there word not mine. First significant loss in a quarter for this division since the early 1990s. No visibility on a turnaround here.
  • US  Lower 48 activity - sizable drop. Then your drilling in the wrong basins my friend. US gas directed activity is hitting 20+ year highs. What gives?
  • US land well servicing business continues to slip- combination of adverse weather and increasing competition from "a large influx of additional rigs by numerous contractors"
  • International looks good (based on current rates) with good visibility into 2009.
  • In summary: cautious outlook towards N. American natural gas, optimistic regarding International ops.
  • RBC docked its price target from $44 to $39 this morning.

In A Nutshell Here's How Much The Various Moving Pieces Matter, (be they strong with high visibility or weak like the US onshore or "abysmal" with little insight into a turn).

nbr-q2-breakdownaaa.jpg

One last thing. they mentioned achieving the per share results in part because of the share repurchases over the last year. But sequentially the share count ins up from 284.8 mm fully diluted to 287.9 mm so either they bought something during the quarter that I missed something (they seem to be busy selling rigs, not making acquisitions that would call for stock issuance) or they're option grants are outpacing the buyback.

Other Earnings Out Today That We Care About:

(XTO) - good numbers, boosting 2007 production guidance from 15% to 17%.

(ECA) - raising outlook on strength in oil sands.

(COP) - reports $2.90 (after you take on the Vz charge) beating consensus of $2.68 quite handily, bought back $1B of their stock during the quarter, debt to cap down to 21%. The production slide from continues. 2.1 mm boe in 4Q, 2.0 in 1Q, now 1.9. More on these guys later

(COG) and (MUR): more later if interesting.

Holdings Watch:

CALLS: No Action. The two recent E&P trades got knocked around pretty hard but were off their lows by the end of trading as natural gas broke $6 but didn't spiral with the markets. I'll add more NFX today after the inventory numbers come out to bring myself into 2x or 3x position prior to earnings on 7/26.

PUTS:

  • (BJS) - Conference call did not go as good as it could have...see my play by play in yesterday's comments for details. Added the August $27.50s for an average cost of $0.775 about halfway through the call somewhere around the time the fifth or so  analyst made sounds akin to beating a dead horse over margins and market share. Last bid $1.05. Up 35% for listening to a conf call and acting before the analysts got a cup of coffee and sauntered over to their squawk box mikes to give the troops the bad news.

Late yesterday we took a little off the table as the stocks were preparing to close near their lows.

  • (TSO) - Sold the August $55s for $4.60, a 53% gain since Friday's re-entry. The stock is approaching $50 from which I'd expect it to find its sea legs for a short period and I may flip some of the house's money into a small call position here, especially if tropical weather begins to crop up. At just under 9.0x 2008 numbers (which may be a bit high at this point but probably not too high) TSO is out of the excessive pricing range it has enjoyed for the last several months although I wouldn't call it cheap and I'm not expecting it to get back to it's recent all time highs in the near future. Still it may bounce tradeably off that nice round $50 mark.
  • (WNR) - With the stock down 10% late in the session I came out of half of my $55 puts for $4.60, a 70% gain since Friday's roll. Still trading at 14.7x numbers, down from 18x less than two weeks ago. If we get a big drop pre Oil Inventory Report tomorow I'll sell the remaining into the excitement and reposition after the report.
  • (FTO) - Still holding August that are starting to wake up but still worth a lot less than what I paid for them. Sold my $45s last week in an apparent fit of stupidity ( nice gain but it would have paid to sell off the $40s instead...ah hindsight). Also holding some $50 August strikes here with very tight stops and likely to be punted pre report. I'm up 169% on those since 7/12 and there's no since blowing a good trade on a stock in which I routinely lose money.

Don't forget to tune in live on MN1.com at 10:25 est for the pre game show and post oil report play by play! 

Oil Inventory Report: (from the Platts And Bloomburg Surveys):

  • Crude Stocks Expected Down 1.4 to 1.9 Million Barrels. If nine year highs (yes we're still at nine year high inventory levels in the U.S.) don't discourage the bulls (and they haven't so far) and the rebounding days of supply count doesn't bother them, what does? Anything over a 2 mm barrel draw here and we'll get a rally.

We're still backwardated and even though the last couple of day's action has tightened up the month to month spreads the carry trade is still out of action and the 24 month strip is increasingly discounting Goldman's call for $100 oil. The acronym SS stands for sell short, not Super Spike as some would have you believe.

  • Gasoline Stocks Expected Down 125,000 to Up 400,000 Barrels. The Reutuers survey is showing a down 400,000 barrel count. And Dow Jones chimes in with a 500,000 barrel rise. Some folks have a 2 mm barrel build on the table which seems a little excessive to me but they're looking for a complete rebound in imports.  It all depends on the imports. The change in imports last week resulted in a 3.5 mm barrel swing from the prior week so it's pretty import. Demand should be pretty much peaked out at 9.7 mm bpd and production should rise modestly. Last week saw imports nose dive and as I've said before, it's a logistical glitch in timings and not that no one wants to send finished product here anymore. I'd expect them to snap back half the distance to prior week's report or to about 1.2 mm bpd. This could knock that gasoline build back up to close to 1 million barrels which would send RBOB falling through $2.
  • Refinery Utilization - Expected Up 0.25 To 91%. That seems reasonable if not a little bit light. I'd expect a small gain in production this week to just over 9.3 mm bpd.

Bottom Line Over/Under: Bullish for oil if we get a 2+mm bls draw; Bullish for gasoline if utilization is less than 91% and production dips again or if we get a draw on stocks. A build in crude would send the commodity lower for sure.

Odds & EndsAnalyst Watch: (BIOF) initiated with buys at Citi and JPM. RBC raised price targets for (XTO): $63 to $66 and fro (ESV): $62 to $77 and cut their target for (NBR) as mentioned above. Motley Fool tell you that's a buying opportunity. I'll stay with the puts for a bit. Jefferies substantially increasing price targets for tankers (TNP), (FRO), (FRO).

Exactly On The Money Watch: The Iranians seem to have changed their policy,'' said Astmax's Emori.  They need the money so that's why they want to increase their position in the oil market. Comment: And I thought they were just being altruistic.

Flynn Watch: Now he's saying:

  • "We could go down to the $70 a barrel area or even as low as $67." Sounds very familiar.
  • "The long-term bull trend is still intact even with a correction of that magnitude." Same story as always with the perma bull crowd, things go down on profit taking, they go up because we're running out of oil!
  • "The market was rallying on the belief that OPEC would stay the course; now it looks like there could be a change in direction...Even opening up the slight possibility of an increase in production is a big bearish force in the market. Comment: What can I say? I agree. Of course, the market was pretty foolish to think that at these prices OPEC could remain cohesively behind the production curtailments. They never got the 1.7 mm bopd in total cuts that were announced and they've been inching and sometimes jumping back up for months. Wait a minute, for the longest time this guy and his CNBC cronies told us it was gasoline pulling oil up and now they say it was OPEC all along. Come on man, get your story straight!

Kevin Watch: Sorry man, ran out of time on Coal! I'm doing a bit on it for the next Alwayanoption newsletter now but may have to accelerate that time table a bit due to the decline.

86 Responses to “Wednesday – Yesterday Day Was Huge! Today Oil Report Expectations Are All Over The Map”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Somebody remind me to by CRK after the storage number tomorrow. Man has that thing gotten blasted! Lowest cost producer out their of size and growing like a weed.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    OIH set to rally early.

    Still long the HAL, short the NBR and BJS.

  3. 3
    codydog Says:

    http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag8zmb.CkR2Q&refer=home

  4. 4
    MMarkkk Says:

    Noted on the XTO call that they have over 60% of their remaining 2007 gas hedged at prices over $8. That must be looking pretty sweet right now. Also, they have 100% of their Rockies gas they acquired from Dominion protected with regards to basis. I believe they said they had locked in $1.40 +/- on the basis differential but I missed the time period. Simpson is still looking pretty smart!

  5. 5
    Brian08 Says:

    Re: #3…Manipulate? Didn’t he try to corner the market and miserably fail?

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Morning fellas

    Cody – they can take it out of his $130 million salary last year. lol.

    Mmarkkk – thanks. I should pay more attention to those guys. Little leary of adding gassy stocks just yet as I’ve got the EOG and NFX. NFX I’ll add more of late today.

    Brian08 – he prayed for storms and they were a no show.

  7. 7
    Brian08 Says:

    Z- Yeah I remember reading about that…Always nice to bet billions of dollars on something that the guys who do that for a living can’t get right 3-4 times in 10…LOL…

  8. 8
    codydog Says:

    I think I read that at the height of their trading, each penny move in NG caused a 10 million dollar swing in their P&L. That may be urban legend, but it gives you some idea of how big a player he was – back in the day – 18 months ago or so.

  9. 9
    MMarkkk Says:

    Z- agreed on waiting. I picked up a few more NFX calls yesterday and will continue to build on these if prices stay down. Wish I’d have waited on the first tranche I bought on Monday but it was small. If the conf call goes well then this should get a step up. Kind of worried about the storage numbers Thursday though.

    Also, Local2 weatherman said last night that activity in the tropics is starting to heat up. Unfortunately, that was his teaser line and I fell asleep before the weather came on. I think we had 2 days in a row without rain and he got sunstroke!!

  10. 10
    codydog Says:

    JOYG hit hard on falling sales to coal companies….any views on coal?

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    cody – lol back in the day

    Mmarkkk – I see your concern re nat gas storage and raise you to record levels.

    Tropics: big wave over Hispaniola.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Cody – still watching. Think they’ll turn when nat gas does. BTU caught another downgrade and ACI not looking so hot either.

    If I had to own one now it would be ANR.

    For those of you who’ve used to read my column in the way back, EEE is still hitting new lows. Wow, talk about overpromise and under deliver.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Cody – re JOYG – I don’t think it lasts long. or translates into pain in the rails and rail car providers…expectations already down there.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    NBR moving lower now.
    BJS thinking about it.

    Quality and low value working: NFX up a buck. EOG strong.

    Refiners getting that little bounce now but it’s all for naught if we get a 400,000+ build in gaso stocks.

  15. 15
    codydog Says:

    anyone think ESV could be an acquisition target?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    HOC getting dropped hard…the rest of the refiners are selling off ahead of the number.

    FTO = nosedive.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    WNR still up big but the only options palatable now are the $55 and they’re steep. When you take your eyeballs off the minute chart you notice just how bad the dailies look.

    Cody re ESV – yes.

  18. 18
    codydog Says:

    z–if the energy #s are bearish, ie, big build in gas & ho, do you think the mkt interpets that as a slowing econ and coupled with cfc, dumps the mkt down like 200-300 points?

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Cody – you got me there. Lower gasoline prices are bullish for consumer sentiment so it depends on what they want to pay attention to.

    WNR setting up a nice entry (re-entry) for the $55 puts if the numbers are indeed gasoline bearish.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    Not a bad idea to take a little FTO off the table down $1 here.

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    mn1.com shortly

  22. 22
    sane Says:

    crude supply down 1.1 mln brls last week: Energy Dept.
    distillate supply up 1.5 mln brls: Energy Dept.
    gasoline supply up 800,000 brls: Energy Dept.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    got cut off

    nbr falling now
    bjs falling off

  24. 24
    codydog Says:

    what are cracks doing?

  25. 25
    sane Says:

    WOW gasoline imports at 1.7Mbls/day

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    That’s embarrassing and I won’t use these guys again if it happens one more time.

    Cracks are off a little. WNR and FTO getting trounced.

  27. 27
    jimbo Says:

    You didn’t get cut off, you got jobbed. Now they are just blathering.

  28. 28
    sane Says:

    The American Petroleum Institute
    Crude build of 2.1 million barrels.
    Gasoline supplies were up 1.2 million barrels.
    Distillate supplies rose 2.4 million barrels.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Jimbo – the guy didn’t lock in line 1 so when he went to Phil I ended up talking into my cell for 30 seconds. I said some brilliant stuff and my phone was very impressed.

    Thanks Sane

    Bottom line: bearish report although that fat gaso import will lead people to discount some of the news.

    Nicky you out there?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    WNR getting sliced

    NBR falling apart now. BJS next

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Adding some more FTO $40 puts for around $2

    Still sitting on my 50s which are bid $10 now, up 245% since the peak call referenced in today’s post from 7/12.

    Shameless Plug Watch: If you’ve enjoyed today’s profits don’t forget to reserve your space at the discount rate!

  32. 32
    codydog Says:

    z–do you get a pre-release on #s which is held until 10.30 or are you banging on re-fresh key like me?

    my suggestion is to use skype for subscriber to announce the #s as that disseminates info quickly and with little hassle to you

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Cody – I get it from their site which counts it down to the second and automatically delivers it to me. Works well and I get a one minute jump or so on CNBC.

    On the NBR call now. I’ll wake up when they do for the Q&A…blah, blah, blah…

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    Adding NFX 45s calls here. Big volume there today. Earnings tomorrow.

    USO exploding to upside now. Anyone see anything?

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    US professor shot in Nigeria

  36. 36
    Lars Says:

    AP reporting a large explosion at an lng plant in Dallas

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Lars – got a link I don’t see it. LNG in Dallas?

  38. 38
    Lars Says:

    Here’s link

    http://news.yahoo.com/

    Yes, LNG

  39. 39
    sane Says:

    RE 36:

    Looks like a distributer. Said it was a bunch of small cylinders.

  40. 40
    T-Tupp Says:

    Z- is that “TRADE: NFX 45”?

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Thanks Lars,

    That’s not LNG in the traditional sense. Looks like propane. Should be a non event

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    TRADE: NFX 45 calls around $3. Just an add before earnings.

    NBR about to start QA in a minute. They’re talking about how confident they are, money where mouth is etc…

    Nicky – out til Monday. I might as well shut the site down til then!!! Yeah, it was bearish, wow is right Sane on that imports number.

  43. 43
    sane Says:

    Z, about those imports; I suspected last week and you also said it looked like a logistic / timing issue.

    Me = broken clock ( I am even right one in a while 😛 )

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Sane – I’m hearing go long transports soon. Any thoughts on KNX?

    NBR: This is a boring conf call. The stock is cheap and I’m tempted to cover before I fall asleep.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Oil up big now. Anybody got a line on that?

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    NBR – so cc ok, lots of squishy talk about higher rates for rigs that are at cheap rates now…

    …but it looks like sequential improvement in earnings won’t occur until 1 year from now.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    NBR – call was kind of eh. Will continue to hold puts with a stop in place if it decides to rally with oil.

  48. 48
    sane Says:

    Z,

    KNX – Good growth, but YOY revenue per tractor is down ( but imporved this quarter ) and YOY empty miles has increased.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Awesome Nicky, thanks.

    Sane – hearing the Street is missing the boat on earnings growth for next 12 months there by a wide margin.

  50. 50
    sane Says:

    Z, If they can keep up the growth ( they are looking at 10% and that is the low end projection )

    I personally might go long on it looking at the chart and it’s drop after ther financial statement.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    I suspect it’ll reverse when Globex gets back up. Didn’t see anything in the numbers that would be a rally point.

    Unless they’re just discounting the gasoline build b/c of the giant import number. I think you can’t do that b/c when you smooth out the last several weeks it’s still very high imports and those are real volumes. RBOB should be edging towards $2 when oil gives up this fake buck!

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Sane,

    I was speaking with a transport fund manager. Smart guy, he gave me the 2 minute and I was impressed. Of course, I’m easily impressed. 🙂 Thought your unique insight could be valuable there like a speed brake for me. I’ve got some re-learning on your industry to do before I commit but hey, what are weekends for?!

  53. 53
    codydog Says:

    z–rally could be from small specs caught short after the # – so they buy an offset in bigs and hope to balance out..

  54. 54
    sane Says:

    Z,

    One thing I have noticed in the industry right now is the attitude is a nervous positive. The outlook is positive, but nobody is willing to bet the house on it.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sane

    Cody – I need to take a look at the CFTC spec pos. Have you seen it lately?

    TSO got that bounce off $50 I was looking for (after going all the way down to $49.40 first)
    I just posted this on the PSW site regarding the action in the refiners.

    Thanks MJ 23! People love round numbers. Plus, and I haven’t said this in a while. TSO is A LOT CHEAPER than it was just one month ago at under 9x forward earnings. However, I don’t think we get a V-Shaped recovery for the refiners b/c seasonally they should weaken now and when RBOB goes through $2, which I’d expect soon, the psychological damage can take another 10% out of the Big Caps and 15 to 20% out of the hide of also-rans WNR, FTO, HOC. SUN will continue to suffer a little as well as their margins normally stink and they will return to stink status quicker than most.

    On the TSO, glad it worked, but don’t fall in love with those CALLS.

  56. 56
    Brian08 Says:

    Z- would you look for a re-entry to short the smaller refiners and are you still taking a wait and see approach on adding to the EOG CALL position?

  57. 57
    codydog Says:

    z–I meant the guys who sold after the #s, hearing that Cushing #s dropped too

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Nicky – so you think the rally is a cascade of stops being taken out?

    Brian:

    Refiners: Took a little more FTO this morning. WNR very tempting here as well. I think this “rally” is very odd indeed and I think it will sell off but you never know how the perma bulls are spinning things. They can’t even run to distillates as they were bigger than expected too.

    EOG I’m watching and standing pat. It likes the up oil today and since I don’t trust that move and since I honestly see a new record for gas being set tomorrow I’m a little leery of adding just yet. They don’t report until August 3 and I haven’t formed an opinion yet as to what I most want to see out of that doc.

    I did add some NFX earlier ($45 Augusts) as they report tonight. It’s not the numbers I’m looking for there although they need to perform on the production line and the cost side.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Cody – I got ya. Could be. I think it turns back down today but probably still a positive close. RBOB again trying to irritate my sensibilities.

  60. 60
    MMarkkk Says:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070725/ts_nm/weather_hurricanes_dc_1;_ylt=Aj17D5hMJnyCNZQFJHwqcnYE1vAI

    Here’s a great article on why we shouldn’t get complacent regarding tropical storms. We are really just now getting into the heart of the season.

    On the other hand, Dr. Gray will update his forecast on Aug 2nd; might there be some high risk play betting on what he does with his forecast?? Yes, I like to shoot craps too!!!

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Nicky – CNBC = Certified Notoriously Bullish on Crude.

    What’s your best gut here? I say we don’t close above $75 and that we’re still on the way to a confrontation with $70 and then $67.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    Mmarkkk – If he pairs the numbers back, I’d like LNG, the company on the put side. The usual gassy names on the higher end of the growth scale (SWN, KWK) will work too but you’ve got to steer through earnings. Also, this would put a shiv in BTU and maybe ACI as well.

    If he upped it then how do you not buy OII?

    Thanks for the heads up on that date!

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    IOC dying on the vine here. They need to say something about the ELK2 well soon.

  64. 64
    codydog Says:

    z–you on eca call?

  65. 65
    codydog Says:

    nicky–did you have a chance to think about what happens if a producer wants to deliver NG they have sold short (as a hedge) but get told storasge is full?

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Cody – saving that one for later. anything of note?

  67. 67
    Sambone Says:

    Z- My question is, why do you even listen to the “Talking heads”. It’s a waste of my time.

  68. 68
    codydog Says:

    seem to be hedged at good prices

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Sambone,

    Oh I’m not. Jazz actually, some foo fighters when the mood strikes. Just commenting on Nicky’s comment.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    FTO rolling back under $40. Thinking strongly about taking $10 ish for my $50s and holding the $40s longer.

  71. 71
    sane Says:

    Jazz? Nice… I used to play in a jazz quartet.

  72. 72
    codydog Says:

    Nigeria to load 4 fewer Bonny, QUA cargoes than in August

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Sane – I used to play trumpet in junior high. lol.

    Nigeria eh…4 bonny cargoes probably won’t be greatly missed. $2 up oil is pretty stupid at a time when OPEC is obviously paving the way for an attitude change as they approach the September meeting.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Nicky you are a prophet! I don’t see this holding up here very long though.

  75. 75
    codydog Says:

    z–I think its more they wiped out the weak longs on the way down and blew out those who shorted this morning. Today was a very suspect day, perhaps even a jumbo player covering shorts in energy, esp NG

  76. 76
    lman Says:

    NFX looks to be rallying….

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Can’t see that Concho Equity has filed an S1 so there’s little point in evaluating as it must be quite a ways off.

    Iman – yep, outperforming their peers into the close. Call volume is very big for them in both the near 45s,50s, and is picking up in the $55.

    Nice rebound here in OII.

  78. 78
    Fred Says:

    Z- Talk is cheap. IMO the street doesn’t believe OPEC has the spare capacity to increase production.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Fred, (oops, sent that first to your email, my bad)

    They’ve definitely got enough spare capacity to bump it at least 1 million bopd right now. The question is, how much firepower is on the other side of that. The Saudis say they can do 2 more in as many years but they haven’t committed to the infrastructure build out necessary to make it happen. At the same time you’ve got some west African production (aside from Nigeria) that definitely growing and offsetting losses in Iran and Vz. I don’t buy off on peak oil if that’s where your headed. Heard it since I first heard the world oil and it’s always been wrong. It’s actually a misnomer since peak oil has to happen at some time since there’s a finite quantity of the stuff. It’s just the price that matter but this latest push in prices isn’t justified so much by supply and demand as it is by hype. The peak oil people are the same ones who live by the phrase “this time its different”

  80. 80
    Fred Says:

    Thanks Z, Don’t forget about Mexico and the North Sea falling off. I don’t buy-in to peak oil per say but I do think we’re headed for an economic peak oil in which the new investors to develop the new fields are getting fewer and fewer.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    Fred,

    Oh I won’t forget about Cantarel or the N. Sea or the norweignian sea for that matter but they’re outside of Opec and I was just on that list. I didn’t think you were a peaker. It’s funny that people say don’t believe in it. Of course I believe in it, I just don’t think its a problem right now! I do believe OPEC has a good bit of spare cap now though (we know of a good chunk they took off the market over the winter). I haven’t posted the international charts in a while, maybe this weekend.

  82. 82
    zman Says:

    Subscriptions:

    No to beat a dead horse (too late) but if you want in on the discount then click the big Reserve my spot area at upper left before Aug 10. I’ve gotten lots of emails and that’s great but the actual reservation is made from the link above so we can get you in the database and ready to go Sep 1.

  83. 83
    codydog Says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSHAF57118120070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Cody – Iran and those kind of guys are like a hydra. One head says we care about the world and rising oil prices are bad, the next head says whatever it can to boost oil prices.

  85. 85
    lman Says:

    Zman,

    Any thoughts on NFX so far?

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Iman – I like pretty much everything I see. Beat on the bottom line, record production in 3 areas and looks to be boosting guidance…I’ll have a detailed look for the morning.

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